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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Surely the time’s come for the media to treat Moggsy’s ERG boy

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Surely the time’s come for the media to treat Moggsy’s ERG boys as all piss and wind

One of the problems with letting it be known that you are making threats and repeatedly not followed them through is that after a time people start to twig and cease to take you seriously.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • First?

    3.4%?
  • Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1055430622334906370
    https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1054471560986267648
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,982
    This crossover is potentially significant.

    image
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,126
    For them the most important thing is a change of policy, if one can call it that, not necessarily a change of leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588
    edited October 2018
    They'll probably get the letters eventually, and they definitely have enough people to cause trouble, but after so long moaning, whinging, crying, ranting, raving, bleating, frothing, blubbering and so on, it will feel like a let down, an inevitability of time more than a show of strength, and in any case probably far far too late to act if they cared as much as they said they do and have the support they claim they do.

    Edit: I clarify this is irrespective of whether their complaints are reasonable or not. They may well be, but their behaviour has been pathetic even if their concerns are valid (not acting even if their numbers are not enough to win, for a start)
  • This was going to be my thread this weekend.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1055145906172030976
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588

    I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.

    To some degree, no doubt, but they have been seeking far bigger changes in direction for months now, escalating their rhetoric since the summer, so she clearly has not caved sufficiently.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,982
    One thing the ERG have done is completely crowd out UKIP. Strategically they’ve been very useful to the Tories.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Agree with the thread header. Journalists should stop being so gullible.
  • I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.

    No - they would not win a vnoc thereby confirming TM in place for another 12 months
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    May 2018 exit at these prices s the clearest lay I've seen in years.

    Long may the Journos keep reporting the ERG threats
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.

    To some degree, no doubt, but they have been seeking far bigger changes in direction for months now, escalating their rhetoric since the summer, so she clearly has not caved sufficiently.
    Why would they quit on a winning strategy?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,191
    More scepticism about the ERG.. very good ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,483

    One thing the ERG have done is completely crowd out UKIP. Strategically they’ve been very useful to the Tories.

    Yes, the Tories own Momentum entryists, but less effective.

    No wonder the kippers have gone all EDL.
  • The way I see it, if the ERG had the numbers, or even tacit support for a coup, they'd have pulled the trigger by now. That's not to say that they won't have the numbers in the future, but clearly they are all fart and no follow through at the minute.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    This crossover is potentially significant.

    image

    Where's the "confident she'll get a bad deal" option?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588

    kle4 said:

    I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.

    To some degree, no doubt, but they have been seeking far bigger changes in direction for months now, escalating their rhetoric since the summer, so she clearly has not caved sufficiently.
    Why would they quit on a winning strategy?
    It hasn't worked yet. Nothing is certain yet. Yes, the position May is advocating is clearly not going to get through, but that is not ensuring the ERG, or the bulk of them, will get what they want as a result. It might well result in something much worse, from their perspective.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,229
    My advice would be: don’t goad them.

    It doesn’t help and we need May to stay in post, and the Withdrawal Bill to pass.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,312

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    edited October 2018
    Of course a different view would be that although they have strong views as to how the negotiations should proceed they are also loyal and cognisant that there is no guarantee that any replacement of May might be to their liking

    The threats are childish and silly but there is room for significant differences of view about what is in the national interest.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.

    To some degree, no doubt, but they have been seeking far bigger changes in direction for months now, escalating their rhetoric since the summer, so she clearly has not caved sufficiently.
    Why would they quit on a winning strategy?
    It hasn't worked yet. Nothing is certain yet. Yes, the position May is advocating is clearly not going to get through, but that is not ensuring the ERG, or the bulk of them, will get what they want as a result. It might well result in something much worse, from their perspective.
    We can't know what the end state will be, but so far I'd say it's worked pretty well. They've managed to make it conventional wisdom that May is going for a soft Brexit, which isn't true at all
  • Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    The Poppy thing, I can just about understand- the red poppy is an iconic symbol in this country, and if you don't want to wear one, that's perfectly acceptable but the white poppy just seems a bit meh! to me.
    The Saudi thing is just plain bonkers, and I thought Mercer was supposed to be a great hope for the Tories!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    It’s pathetic. Of course it is the same excuse we use every time we decide to bomb something.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    rkrkrk said:

    Agree with the thread header. Journalists should stop being so gullible.

    Very few real journalists around, opinion writers are more prized as they get the punters involved in (and buying) the papers/visiting the websites, reading the clickbait, buying from the adverts
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I thought that the reason they have never followed through is that May has always caved to their demands.

    To some degree, no doubt, but they have been seeking far bigger changes in direction for months now, escalating their rhetoric since the summer, so she clearly has not caved sufficiently.
    Why would they quit on a winning strategy?
    It hasn't worked yet. Nothing is certain yet. Yes, the position May is advocating is clearly not going to get through, but that is not ensuring the ERG, or the bulk of them, will get what they want as a result. It might well result in something much worse, from their perspective.
    Caroline Flint says upto 45 labour mps could support the deal
  • Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P
  • One thing the ERG have done is completely crowd out UKIP. Strategically they’ve been very useful to the Tories.

    It's the FPTP voting system which crowded out UKIP not the ERG
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,982

    One thing the ERG have done is completely crowd out UKIP. Strategically they’ve been very useful to the Tories.

    It's the FPTP voting system which crowded out UKIP not the ERG
    Opinion polls aren’t FPTP.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
  • OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I think the key word here is "reasonable". Some Conservatives would vote for a deal consisting of fish and chips wrapped in the Brussels evening newspaper but on the assumption we'll get something rather sweeter (and fudge like) there'll be enough for most people to grudgingly give support.

    Given the alternatives seem to be another Referendum, Jeremy Corbyn, famine & pestilence on a biblical level and, worst of all, falling house prices, I can understand why the mood might be to accept whatever thin gruel is served up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,191

    One thing the ERG have done is completely crowd out UKIP. Strategically they’ve been very useful to the Tories.

    It's the FPTP voting system which crowded out UKIP not the ERG
    The nutty or venal nature of the few that made it through to election didnt help any.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,181
    edited October 2018
    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    It’s pathetic. Of course it is the same excuse we use every time we decide to bomb something.
    In Macau several years ago there was a spate of gangster related shootings. The police chief made a statement for tourists saying they shouldn't worry because the hitmen were all professionals and unlikely to shoot the wrong person by mistake.

    Poppies? Fine wear a red one but the gold-trimmed, themed glitter ones are a bit OTT.

    The white ones are a bit me me me.
  • OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
    Actually I believe TM will get the deal passed by the HOC probbably with good support from sensible labour mps who do not want the risk of an accidental no deal
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    stodge said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I think the key word here is "reasonable". Some Conservatives would vote for a deal consisting of fish and chips wrapped in the Brussels evening newspaper but on the assumption we'll get something rather sweeter (and fudge like) there'll be enough for most people to grudgingly give support.

    Given the alternatives seem to be another Referendum, Jeremy Corbyn, famine & pestilence on a biblical level and, worst of all, falling house prices, I can understand why the mood might be to accept whatever thin gruel is served up.
    Falling house prices? You just want the Express to change its position.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    A
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    It’s pathetic. Of course it is the same excuse we use every time we decide to bomb something.
    In Macau several years ago there was a spate of gangster related shootings. The police chief made a statement for tourists saying they shouldn't worry because the hitmen were all professionals and unlikely to shoot the wrong person by mistake.

    Poppies? Fine wear a red one but the gold-trimmed, themed glitter ones are a bit OTT.

    The white ones are a bit me me me.
    Agree with all of that. Especially the poppies.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,229
    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
    Actually I believe TM will get the deal passed by the HOC probbably with good support from sensible labour mps who do not want the risk of an accidental no deal
    So do I


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102

    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
    It won’t be when the clear alternative is no deal.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473
    If the big aim of ERG is a Brexit along hard principles then one has distinguish between strategy and tactics. They are not in an easy position as though they have the support of most Tory members they only have a diminishing minority of the voters (probably), and certainly nowhere near a majority in parliament - quite the reverse. To achieve their aim, which they probably won't, they will need a lot of luck at the right time. No Deal looks like their best chance and that can only be done ultimately by avoiding all outcomes apart from a binary decision between No Deal and something even less popular; or just possibly a choice between No Deal and Canada +, both of which would meet with ERG backing. There isn't much point in taking the rest of it seriously. It's hot air.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,982
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
    It won’t be when the clear alternative is no deal.
    That simply isn’t the alternative. In extremis parliament could depose May and choose a new PM to revoke Article 50.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
    Actually I believe TM will get the deal passed by the HOC probbably with good support from sensible labour mps who do not want the risk of an accidental no deal
    The so called sensible Labour MP's are mostly all drinking in the last chance saloon. Most LP supporters are expecting a third chicken coup attempt or a block defecation to a new party with Tony and Euan Blair. The well announced but failed CCP walk out from Conference is more like the ERG in the Tories, much noise but no substance.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
    Actually I believe TM will get the deal passed by the HOC probbably with good support from sensible labour mps who do not want the risk of an accidental no deal
    The so called sensible Labour MP's are mostly all drinking in the last chance saloon. Most LP supporters are expecting a third chicken coup attempt or a block defecation to a new party with Tony and Euan Blair. The well announced but failed CCP walk out from Conference is more like the ERG in the Tories, much noise but no substance.
    block defecation? dirty protest?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588
    edited October 2018

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
    Actually I believe TM will get the deal passed by the HOC probbably with good support from sensible labour mps who do not want the risk of an accidental no deal
    If people are as opposed to no deal as they claim (I am very skeptical of that), then even a bad deal should be supported on such a basis given it is far more risky to push for a second referendum of count on a favourable GE, should one somehow occur. But I feel like if there were anything like the numbers to counter the likely Tory rebels more Labour MPs would be willing to admit to thinking about it at least, when even some rebellious Labour MPs seem to have been pretty clear they will not consider it under any circumstances.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    Strong 'n Stable.
  • Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    The Poppy thing, I can just about understand- the red poppy is an iconic symbol in this country, and if you don't want to wear one, that's perfectly acceptable but the white poppy just seems a bit meh! to me.
    The Saudi thing is just plain bonkers, and I thought Mercer was supposed to be a great hope for the Tories!
    People go weirdly swoony over ex-forces turned pols, cf Dan Jarvis. I haven't heard anything of the latter recently, he must be making a fist of his mayoral duties, or at least not screwing up.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    spire2 said:

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    Only if they want to commit political hari kiri (belly slitting) and antagonise their local CLP, LP supporters and electorate. They will enhance their chances of being deselected in short time, and if there is a quick election, no chance of returning to the best club in London, or red boxes and government cars, and believe me, they are not that stupid, they just look and act like it.
    Maybe they see it in the national interest
    Oh come on, they are politicians...
    Actually I believe TM will get the deal passed by the HOC probbably with good support from sensible labour mps who do not want the risk of an accidental no deal
    The so called sensible Labour MP's are mostly all drinking in the last chance saloon. Most LP supporters are expecting a third chicken coup attempt or a block defecation to a new party with Tony and Euan Blair. The well announced but failed CCP walk out from Conference is more like the ERG in the Tories, much noise but no substance.
    block defecation? dirty protest?
    Was wondering how long it would take for someone to catch it...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2018
    Portrait by AI program sells for $432,000

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45980863

    Some people have more money than sense. Isn't not even a good example of what a GAN can produce.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588
    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
    It won’t be when the clear alternative is no deal.
    That simply isn’t the alternative. In extremis parliament could depose May and choose a new PM to revoke Article 50.
    There are so many assumptions in that, not least of which is that revoking art 50 is even in our power. My view, FWIW, is that we would need the consent of the other party to do that. That consent would not be a given.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    The Poppy thing, I can just about understand- the red poppy is an iconic symbol in this country, and if you don't want to wear one, that's perfectly acceptable but the white poppy just seems a bit meh! to me.
    The Saudi thing is just plain bonkers, and I thought Mercer was supposed to be a great hope for the Tories!
    People go weirdly swoony over ex-forces turned pols, cf Dan Jarvis. I haven't heard anything of the latter recently, he must be making a fist of his mayoral duties, or at least not screwing up.
    I'd forgotten he was a mayor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
    It won’t be when the clear alternative is no deal.
    That simply isn’t the alternative. In extremis parliament could depose May and choose a new PM to revoke Article 50.
    There are so many assumptions in that, not least of which is that revoking art 50 is even in our power. My view, FWIW, is that we would need the consent of the other party to do that. That consent would not be a given.
    It's only wishful thinking or misleading people about how easy it would be when the other side do it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2018
    People might want to be careful what they post...

    "To the extent that it is suggested that I have been guilty of unlawful sexual or racist behaviour, I categorically and wholly deny these allegations."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6316539/Sir-Philip-Green-named-parliament-injunction-businessman.html
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    The Poppy thing, I can just about understand- the red poppy is an iconic symbol in this country, and if you don't want to wear one, that's perfectly acceptable but the white poppy just seems a bit meh! to me.
    The Saudi thing is just plain bonkers, and I thought Mercer was supposed to be a great hope for the Tories!
    From my understanding of the White Poppy, it started out in 1931 as a response to the seeming pro-militarisation popularity of the red poppy. The only comment I will make is that whenever the UK is being pushed to some form of military activity by the political establishment, the red poppy is in the fore front of the publicity.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,982
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
    It won’t be when the clear alternative is no deal.
    That simply isn’t the alternative. In extremis parliament could depose May and choose a new PM to revoke Article 50.
    There are so many assumptions in that, not least of which is that revoking art 50 is even in our power. My view, FWIW, is that we would need the consent of the other party to do that. That consent would not be a given.
    It's only wishful thinking or misleading people about how easy it would be when the other side do it.
    No, my point was that the full range of actions that are available to the UK are also available to parliament.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Is a five point Tory lead now the new normal?
  • Google gave a $90m severance package to Andy Rubin, the creator of the Android mobile software, but concealed details of a sexual misconduct allegation that triggered his departure, the New York Times has reported.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/oct/25/google-andy-rubin-android-creator-payoff-sexual-misconduct-report
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,483
    notme said:

    Is a five point Tory lead now the new normal?

    Until the election is called ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
  • Totally O/T....red dead redemption 2 is out tomorrow. From early gameplay available online it looks incredible and that’s on console...can’t wait until it goes to PC in a year or so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588
    edited October 2018

    Totally O/T....red dead redemption 2 is out tomorrow. From early gameplay available online it looks incredible and that’s on console...can’t wait until it goes to PC in a year or so.

    I confess as deep as they can be I could not get through the first Red Dead or the last GTA game - too much 20 minute road trips between activity to make sure you visit the vast world they created, or it is how I remember it, I was a bit weary of sandboxes at the time. But I cannot argue the first was not objectively very good, and I'm sure this one is. But I have too many to finish!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    Totally O/T....red dead redemption 2 is out tomorrow. From early gameplay available online it looks incredible and that’s on console...can’t wait until it goes to PC in a year or so.

    If Metacritic is to be believed, it is a sensational game.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Common Sense Solidarity - seems to be Blue Labour, basically.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588
    edited October 2018

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Up to 45 Labour MPs could rebel to back Theresa May's Brexit deal if it is “reasonable”, Don Valley MP Caroline Flint tells me

    https://t.co/ZWl9xBuZ2P

    I’ve been saying for a while any deal May is willing to recommend will pass the Commons.
    But, it is speculation.

    May can bank on probably only 285 votes at the moment from her side, and maybe a further 5 from Labour Brexiteers. The DUP will either back en-bloc, or won’t at all.

    Meanwhile, she’ll have SNP guaranteed against, Green, SDLP, and all the LD MPs but one (maybe) and most of Labour, except perhaps 15-20 absentions. About 290 votes against.

    I think it’s bloody close.
    It won’t be when the clear alternative is no deal.
    That simply isn’t the alternative. In extremis parliament could depose May and choose a new PM to revoke Article 50.
    There are so many assumptions in that, not least of which is that revoking art 50 is even in our power. My view, FWIW, is that we would need the consent of the other party to do that. That consent would not be a given.
    It's only wishful thinking or misleading people about how easy it would be when the other side do it.
    No, my point was that the full range of actions that are available to the UK are also available to parliament.
    Whatever your intent you presented an option that is not necessarily within the power of parliament as though it were a given, that is as though it is simple and easy, when it is not.
  • RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Same here.

    Clearly a flawed test as everyone knows I'm a working class (Northern) Tory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Common Sense Solidarity - seems to be Blue Labour, basically.
    Which is worse, Blue Labour or Red Tory?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Same here.

    Clearly a flawed test as everyone knows I'm a working class (Northern) Tory.
    Perhaps they are talking about the Notting Hill up North? (there must be one!)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally O/T....red dead redemption 2 is out tomorrow. From early gameplay available online it looks incredible and that’s on console...can’t wait until it goes to PC in a year or so.

    If Metacritic is to be believed, it is a sensational game.
    Having watched an hour or so of gameplay I agree with the herd. Poor hitman season 2 (and every other game out in the next couple of months) is going to be totally overshadowed.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Common Sense Solidarity - seems to be Blue Labour, basically.
    Which is worse, Blue Labour or Red Tory?
    Blue Labour should have branded themselves Proper Labour to avoid being associated with the Blue Tories...
  • The year long decline of Corbyn's popularity among 18-24 year olds is really something. From 65% in Summer 2017 to 35% today. (via @daverich1). https://t.co/SBspZ6Uy6B
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,483
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    It’s pathetic. Of course it is the same excuse we use every time we decide to bomb something.
    In Macau several years ago there was a spate of gangster related shootings. The police chief made a statement for tourists saying they shouldn't worry because the hitmen were all professionals and unlikely to shoot the wrong person by mistake.

    Poppies? Fine wear a red one but the gold-trimmed, themed glitter ones are a bit OTT.

    The white ones are a bit me me me.
    Wearing a white poppy certainly does drive a lot of attention, some of it quite an aggressive display of poppy totalitarianism. It certainly is not a comfortable easy option. Quite a few Christians wear one as a part of taking up the Cross of Christ. The white poppy symbolises remembrance of all victims of war whether civilian or combatant on either side, and have been availible since the 1930s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,588

    The year long decline of Corbyn's popularity among 18-24 year olds is really something. From 65% in Summer 2017 to 35% today. (via @daverich1). https://t.co/SBspZ6Uy6B

    Will it rebound in the event of an election though? New 18 year olds not yet inspired by the jezziah who will get fired up should a campaign begin?
  • The year long decline of Corbyn's popularity among 18-24 year olds is really something. From 65% in Summer 2017 to 35% today. (via @daverich1). https://t.co/SBspZ6Uy6B

    Too busy making twats of themselves over murals of white men ;-)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,483

    The year long decline of Corbyn's popularity among 18-24 year olds is really something. From 65% in Summer 2017 to 35% today. (via @daverich1). https://t.co/SBspZ6Uy6B

    Brexit, and not backing the #peoplesvote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,483
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Global Green Community for me.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816


    Same here.

    Clearly a flawed test as everyone knows I'm a working class (Northern) Tory.

    So I'm told you have a new job doing whatever it is you do and working for some Frenchman (whatever that is) in some place (don't know where) sometime (don't know when).

    Congratulations (possibly).
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,961
    I came out as 'Orange booker'. I thought that label was a bit 2005? I tend to associate it with David Laws, whom I can't abide.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Same here.

    Clearly a flawed test as everyone knows I'm a working class (Northern) Tory.
    Perhaps they are talking about the Notting Hill up North? (there must be one!)
    There's a Piccadilly up north :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Portrait by AI program sells for $432,000

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45980863

    Some people have more money than sense. Isn't not even a good example of what a GAN can produce.

    For that price you could have a bound copy of Theresa May’s conference speech, signed by the lady herself

    (I kid you not)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2018

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    I see the Indy has up a questionnaire designed to find people's 'value clan' designed by BMG research, another in a long line of attempts to categorize people. I'm down as 'The Measured Middle', but I feel like I might bias the results somewhat as even though I did not look to see what the 'clans' were beforehand, that is kind of where I would have liked to have ended up, so may have self selected somewhat.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-political-clan-test-research-uk-general-election-right-wing-left-bmg-a8599586.html

    Notting Hill (Tory) Society, apparently. :o
    Same here.

    Clearly a flawed test as everyone knows I'm a working class (Northern) Tory.
    I was split, identified as both Orange Book and Modern Working Life. Both of which I could identify with. Actually I'm still not sure what the difference between them is.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Orange booker for me. I expect that group will be hugely overrepresented on pb.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good evening all.

    I was Notting Hill Society/Modern Working Life. Truly a person of the people.

    As for the ERG, if you're going to depose someone, get on with it. They're doing the opposite of 'speak softly and carry a big stick'.
  • stodge said:


    Same here.

    Clearly a flawed test as everyone knows I'm a working class (Northern) Tory.

    So I'm told you have a new job doing whatever it is you do and working for some Frenchman (whatever that is) in some place (don't know where) sometime (don't know when).

    Congratulations (possibly).
    Thank you.
  • Google says it has sacked 48 people, including 13 senior managers, over sexual harassment claims in past two years
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,798

    Orange booker for me. I expect that group will be hugely overrepresented on pb.

    You may be right there.

    +1 for the Orange Book team.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Bastion of tradition and the individual.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Jonny Mercer having a good 24 hrs, big ups for poppy and Wahabi fascism.

    That's an absolutely ridiculous argument, isn't it? Saudi Arabia is bombing people in Yemen, so we must sell them precision weapons so as to make sure they don't bomb someone by mistake. It completely bypasses the question of whether we should support Saudi intervention in Yemen, and would apply equally to assisting Russia or China in invading somewhere, by ensuring they could target their enemies accurately.
    It’s pathetic. Of course it is the same excuse we use every time we decide to bomb something.
    In Macau several years ago there was a spate of gangster related shootings. The police chief made a statement for tourists saying they shouldn't worry because the hitmen were all professionals and unlikely to shoot the wrong person by mistake.

    Poppies? Fine wear a red one but the gold-trimmed, themed glitter ones are a bit OTT.

    The white ones are a bit me me me.
    Wearing a white poppy certainly does drive a lot of attention, some of it quite an aggressive display of poppy totalitarianism. It certainly is not a comfortable easy option. Quite a few Christians wear one as a part of taking up the Cross of Christ. The white poppy symbolises remembrance of all victims of war whether civilian or combatant on either side, and have been availible since the 1930s.
    Poppy wearing in general is virtue signalling, done old school....
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    MWL – Modern Working Life

    Modern Working Life clan members are strong believers of the virtues of hard work and social mobility, supporting the view that it is always possible to achieve your goals, so long as you work hard. On balance most MWL clansmen believe the individual, not the state, should be responsible for their own well-being, and tend to have liberal views on the environment, LGBT rights and gender equality.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/25/leading-brexiter-claims-eu-citizens-in-uk-will-be-given-voting-rights

    If true, May is going to have fun trying to sell that to Tory MPs in marginals.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The question is does it make them more likely to vote.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    I was told a story today about a colleague in another part of my organisation

    No idea if this can be true or not, but he was present when I was told and did not deny it.

    So, he was born in the UK and his parents are Spanish

    He holds a Spanish passport and voted for Brexit.

    He has just got his British passport - just in case.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Split between Orange Booker and Global Green. Which is probably about right, even though I also have strong views in some areas which would see me at odds with most people in said groups.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Floater said:

    I was told a story today about a colleague in another part of my organisation

    No idea if this can be true or not, but he was present when I was told and did not deny it.

    So, he was born in the UK and his parents are Spanish

    He holds a Spanish passport and voted for Brexit.

    He has just got his British passport - just in case.

    As an Ezu citizen should he have voted?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,102
    The measured middle for me. Apparently this clan does not have strong political views. Hmm...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/25/leading-brexiter-claims-eu-citizens-in-uk-will-be-given-voting-rights

    If true, May is going to have fun trying to sell that to Tory MPs in marginals.

    Almost certainly will apply to local elections only, as present.
  • Charles said:

    Floater said:

    I was told a story today about a colleague in another part of my organisation

    No idea if this can be true or not, but he was present when I was told and did not deny it.

    So, he was born in the UK and his parents are Spanish

    He holds a Spanish passport and voted for Brexit.

    He has just got his British passport - just in case.

    As an Ezu citizen should he have voted?
    He wouldn't have been eligible to vote in the referendum if he was solely an EU citizen.
This discussion has been closed.