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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My Cruz-O’Rourke spread bet – “selling the Republican” at 53%
PB regulars will know that I am a keen spread better on political events where the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. Essentially you “buy” and “sell” a position as though it was a stock or share and watch how the market moves.
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I have a tiny bet on O'Rourke, so let's hope that comes off.
F1: interesting third practice. I suspect predicting qualifying might be a mite tricky, but I'll see how things stand.
Then 8 June 2018 happened, and I did not do as well as Mike !
https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1056215936309624832
Betting PostF1: pre-qualifying ramble: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2018.html
Backed Raikkonen for the fastest time in qualifying, each way at 21.
I just think the odds are wonky. The Red Bulls, Hamilton and Vettel are all under 5. Yet Raikkonen's out at 21. The Red Bulls suffered battery problems in third practice, and Bottas' hydraulics problem may mean he can't even contest qualifying. The party mode could mean it's a three horse race (Hamilton, Vettel, Raikkonen) for pole and, if so, 21 is just too long.
Edited extra bit: oh, and I've set up a hedge on Ladbrokes Exchange at 3 (got more cash there than Ladbrokes).
https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1056223219601018885
Bet there's lots of NRA funded Reps sending their prayers today.
Tory, Labour and SNP members say they will table a “killer” amendment in favour of a public vote. The amendment, if passed, will state that acceptance of the prime minister’s deal must be dependent on a public vote taking place beforehand, in which people would be offered the choice of leaving on the terms of that deal, or staying in the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/27/jeremy-corbyn-second-brexit-vote-commons-amendment
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6322091/Election-watchdog-head-QUITS-claims-commission-biased-against-Brexit.html
I'm not wholly convinced about O'Rourke but his response to the question about NFL players kneeling showed perhaps the first signs of centre and centre-left politicians coming up with a response to populism. Up to now, the response has either been to appease or to ignore but O'Rourke chose to confront and argue.
I get that - the truth is appeasement gets you nowhere and convinces no one while ignoring the issue looks condescending and elitist. O'Rourke sought to justify and argue for what Kaepernick and others did not in terms of disrespecting anything but in terms of respect for the American right to protest peacefully.
Perhaps more interesting he was challenging established notions of patriotism and challenging the "rules" of what it is to be patriotic in America.
It's a lesson for the centre and centre-left over here - instead of chasing after the populist argument don't. Argue for your values and your patriotism in your terms and it's not about denigrating or denying other values but asserting yours.
https://twitter.com/mollycrabapple/status/1056215842327879682
Yes, we need to uphold the law but "policing by consent" is a valid term and elates to how the Police and community co-exist.
That is why those protesting need to be careful and stick to fscts. There are plenty of examples of the police behaving badly, but I do keep hearing certain more high profile incidents (which have since been found to be untrue after investigation and court trials) trotted out.
The first episode of Beyond Today will be available on Monday. It has a separate young production and presenting team dominated by women and with as many people from ethnic minorities as men.
I fear the BBC don’t really understand why YouTuber and twitchers have become so popular. Hint, it isn’t about putting in place quotas of women and ethnic minorities as presenters.
On a walk the other day, I came across an old school that had a beautiful engraving outside called: "Time Rewarding Industry and Punishing Sloth".
Does anyone have a contact number for time, as I've been rather busy and haven't had much reward ...
People chose not to trust the Ferguson PD account of what transpired because of a prevailing distrust of the Police and chose to believe the strongly anti-Police version of events because it chimed with their own (or if not their own then those they knew) experience.
When it comes to Michael brown there is this no doubt that the police acted properly. And as I say some that isn’t the only high profile case that is continually held up as an example, which have been investigated / tried and found to be lawful.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/26/us/kentucky-kroger-shooting/index.html
He shot up a shop instead when he failed to get in.
I'm saying all this "fake news" nonsense from both sides masks the issue of Police-community relations and the breakdown of such in some parts of America and the perception among some black people the Police actively discriminates against them. That's an argument and an issue that needs to be addressed but all some seem to be interested in is shouting about whose news is the more "fake" and trying to make a cheap political point.
The testimony of the shooting officer in question was... a little strange and not wholly backed up by eye witnesses.
Also the police description of the shooting was not consistent with Wilson's testimony.
Am knackered tonight, have guests visiting tomorrow so have been prepping for that.
Off topic who could have foreseen Trump describing people who chanted 'Jews will not replace us' as very fine people would give succour to them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/26/brexit-change-clocks-european-time-brexit-march-2019
Am I underestimating him or is he being entirely serious? Is the Guardian resorting to clickbait? I particularly enjoyed this belter:
'But as with so much to do with solving our European dilemmas, obstacles could come from two directions. First, the French. If Britain moved to Central European Time, there is nothing to stop French leader Emmanuel Macron using Juncker’s new law to fix France permanently on its summer time – keeping the French with their one-hour lead, and once again thwarting the British.'
They'd still be behind Moscow, Beijing and Tokyo though. Not to mention those eternally one step ahead New Zealanders.
Seriously bad news.
https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273040080883713?s=19
https://twitter.com/zaghumhashmee/status/1056273929763983360
Mike Smithson said:
'Heath's Tories at GE1970 hold a unique record. This was the only occasion in recent times when a party with a working Commons majority has been replaced by the main opposition party with a working majority. With all other changes of power the outgoing government had lost its working majority (1951) or didn't have one (1997), or else the incoming government didn't have a working majority (1964 & 2010) '
Attlee's outgoing Government in October 1951 had not lost its majority - indeed it still retained the 6 seat majority won in February 1950. It had become a very tired administration , but there was no reason for Attlee to have called an election at that time. From a Labour perspective, it was a disastrous decision and perhaps it is surprising that Attlee was not seriously challenged in the aftermath. Apparently he had believed that the popularity of the Festival of Britain that summer would enhance Labour's prospects significantly.
Wilson went from having a majority of 96 in 1966 to conceding a majority of 30 in 1970. That's the only time since 1906 that there has been such a dramatic reversal, there never having been off the top of my head a time when a government with an overall majority of more than ten conceded an overall majority of 10 or more to the opposition.*
Reading newspaper reports of the time as part of my MA was instructive. The sense of shock was palpable and the comparisons to Truman widespread.
*Edit - I suppose in theory 1945 was also an exception. It was the only time since 1906 that a three figure majority one way switched to be a three figure majority the other way. Everyone ignores it however because it was so extraordinary in every way. After all, the Opposition had been in government only a few weeks before.
CDU/CSU 24%
Greens 20%
AfD 16%
SPD 15%
FDP 10%
Linke 10%
Others 5%
Forsa:
CDU/CSU 26%
Greens 21%
SPD 14%
AfD 14%
Linke 10%
FDP 9%
Others 6%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
That does however tend to suggest Labour were, contrary to their rhetoric, seen as more divisive and less mainstream by centrist voters.
Yet, ironically, 1951 remains their highest ever share of the popular vote.
with a result anywhere near the polling there'd be no viable coalition
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1056166691619659777
Perhaps he can do his time on Robben Island.
https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1056286934878879745
There were about 500 people shot in the Las Vegas shooting last year, 59 dead, and it hasn't made a blind bit of difference. Absolute carnage and it didn't even stick in the news for very long, and we still have little idea about why it happened.
The gun "debate" now is incomprehensible to me, reality barely seems to matter, it has become a quasi-religious argument about the doctrine handed down by the Founding Fathers.
America is simultaneously a very impressive and very worrying country. I don't see things getting better anytime soon.
A significant proportion of America decided that owning guns was more important than preventing thousands of people getting shot every year.
Makes a nice campaign poster mind you..
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1056289435422261249?s=21
UK - 1800
US - 37,000
It isn't just about guns. The US is an outlier to other western countries in all sorts of ways.
But that is not exactly news.
I think it’s the side effect of all those traffic jams.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Congressional_baseball_shooting