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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms w

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited October 31 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking at the US Midterms with ex-White House Coms director Anthony Scaramucci

This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Absolute coup for Keiran and PB this is.

    Absolute must listen.
  • Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    Can we get the podcast onto Spotify please?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,791

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    TSE's just a northern boy from a northern family.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,064

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    TSE's just a northern boy from a northern family.
    He's just a northern boy from northern family...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,779
    GIN1138 said:

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    TSE's just a northern boy from a northern family.
    He's just a northern boy from northern family...
    Working class - don't forget that!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    Nah, he’s just mooching around.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,791
    GIN1138 said:

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    TSE's just a northern boy from a northern family.
    He's just a northern boy from northern family...
    Spare him his life from this monstrous-AV!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369

    GIN1138 said:

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    TSE's just a northern boy from a northern family.
    He's just a northern boy from northern family...
    Spare him his life from this monstrous-AV!
    I offered to let him off a pineapple pizza bet if he would forswear future AV threads.

    He chose the pineapple.

    But there, anyone who likes The Last Jedi clearly has no taste.

    *Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,472
    Love the playback speed button on the podcast. 1.25 for me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    Scott_P said:
    96% of respondents plan to vote.

    Doesn't suggest it is fully representative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    I find it slightly odd that Scaramucci opens by talking about how ‘unfortunately’ in the US, as indeed in the UK, things are very tribal and between extremes, even as he talks about Trump’s conversion to more conservative social positions as necessary because ‘you have to choose a side’. So why is it ‘unfortunate’? People don’t have to do it, they choose too to win, there’s nothing unfortunate about choosing to go down that route. It’s a thought I often have when people lament tribalism and extremism, even as it is rewarded and they themselves indulge in it, since it shows they aren’t really upset by it.

    He also talks about Trump not having a filter, which, yeah, that seems to be the case. Now, I hope it is not sanctimonious of me, but while we do want people who mostly say what they think, I’ve quite understood why lack of a filter is meant to be such a clearly good thing, and that doesn’t just apply to Trump. Ok, we don’t want people who talk only in generalities and obfuscations, but a certain level of consideration before speaking is surely appropriate?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    Scott_P said:
    Well that would be bad news for the Democrats, if true. At the very least they need to comfortably hold what they have.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,791
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Seriously you must all listen to this podcast all the way through to the end.

    Why? Will be find out if Scaramucci can do the fandango?
    TSE's just a northern boy from a northern family.
    He's just a northern boy from northern family...
    Spare him his life from this monstrous-AV!
    I offered to let him off a pineapple pizza bet if he would forswear future AV threads.

    He chose the pineapple.

    But there, anyone who likes The Last Jedi clearly has no taste.

    *Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
    "The greatest teacher, failure is."
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well that would be bad news for the Democrats, if true. At the very least they need to comfortably hold what they have.
    Not necessarily. IN has trended redder and redder during the last six years, so this race was one where the Dems were expected to have trouble. Given the power of incumbency I think this will be a D hold.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    Scaramucci expecting a potential recession in 2020 – I mostly wonder how Trump would respond to blame for the economy downturning, whether or not it would be reasonable to blame him.

    Bloomberg mentioned as someone who could take on Trump?

    Frankly I am not surprised that he thinks Harris and Warren, as women, might struggle to fight Trump’s particular rough style.

    Apparently Trump has an upbeat sense of humour. I find that hard to believe when he has such thin skin – I find it easier to believe that he might well be fun to hang around with so long as no one challenged him on anything.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,122
    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517

    People assume because it involves young people it cannot be all that bad, though it very much can be?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    edited October 31
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well that would be bad news for the Democrats, if true. At the very least they need to comfortably hold what they have.
    Indiana is normally a Republican state, it even voted for Bob Dole and Mitt Romney, the surprising thing is the Democrats ever held the seat at all. The Democrats are unlikely to take the Senate as so many seats up this year are Democratic held but they are still likely to take the House
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    kle4 said:

    Scaramucci expecting a potential recession in 2020 – I mostly wonder how Trump would respond to blame for the economy downturning, whether or not it would be reasonable to blame him.

    Bloomberg mentioned as someone who could take on Trump?

    Frankly I am not surprised that he thinks Harris and Warren, as women, might struggle to fight Trump’s particular rough style.

    Apparently Trump has an upbeat sense of humour. I find that hard to believe when he has such thin skin – I find it easier to believe that he might well be fun to hang around with so long as no one challenged him on anything.

    Bloomberg if he runs will likely run as an independent e.g. if it is Trump v Sanders or Trump v Warren and he can be the centrist alternative. He is too centrist and corporate to win the Democratic primaries in 2020
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scaramucci expecting a potential recession in 2020 – I mostly wonder how Trump would respond to blame for the economy downturning, whether or not it would be reasonable to blame him.

    Bloomberg mentioned as someone who could take on Trump?

    Frankly I am not surprised that he thinks Harris and Warren, as women, might struggle to fight Trump’s particular rough style.

    Apparently Trump has an upbeat sense of humour. I find that hard to believe when he has such thin skin – I find it easier to believe that he might well be fun to hang around with so long as no one challenged him on anything.

    Bloomberg if he runs will likely run as an independent e.g. if it is Trump v Sanders or Trump v Warren and he can be the centrist alternative. He is too centrist and corporate to win the Democratic primaries in 2020
    Well, presumably he at least has the money to run if he wanted to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517

    People assume because it involves young people it cannot be all that bad, though it very much can be?
    Being hit with a chair is pretty serious, from painful personal experience.

    I must admit, my reaction if I were one of those staff would be to call the police and lay criminal charges of assault, plus do the council in for conspiracy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517

    People assume because it involves young people it cannot be all that bad, though it very much can be?
    Being hit with a chair is pretty serious, from painful personal experience.

    I must admit, my reaction if I were one of those staff would be to call the police and lay criminal charges of assault, plus do the council in for conspiracy.
    I agree it is very serious. I don't know why we don't see more stories like this. I'm just speculating that people may note that it is bad, but not quite understand how bad it is, because it is 'children' or young people and thus not as serious as adult on adult. When of course, not to mention other issues, plenty of young people are physically as big or bigger than plenty of teachers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517

    People assume because it involves young people it cannot be all that bad, though it very much can be?
    Being hit with a chair is pretty serious, from painful personal experience.

    I must admit, my reaction if I were one of those staff would be to call the police and lay criminal charges of assault, plus do the council in for conspiracy.
    I agree it is very serious. I don't know why we don't see more stories like this. I'm just speculating that people may note that it is bad, but not quite understand how bad it is, because it is 'children' or young people and thus not as serious as adult on adult. When of course, not to mention other issues, plenty of young people are physically as big or bigger than plenty of teachers.
    If somebody behaved like that to a member of staff on the railways - almost all of whom are more highly paid than teachers, despite the fact only the driver has any sort of meaningful level of responsibility - BTP would be along in a brace of shakes, and put them before the magistrates, rightly so.

    If it happened in a hospital, treatment would be refused and porters called to evict them, by force if necessary.

    Yet here, we have the council siding with people who have committed alleged criminal offences.

    It stinks.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,988

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Labour are favourites, but it is not straightforward.

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions, (ii) the Labour Welsh Government has managed to reduce Wales to a state of unprecedented fuckedupedness.

    Locally, the abolition of Severn Bridge Tolls in December (for which the Tories can claim some credit) will certainly be popular ..... though I expect the long-term effects to be disastrous.

    All in all, the price looks about right to me.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,270
    Big weekend down here. Oprah, Obama and Trump are all here (or in Macon) this weekend. Even Pence is rumored to be putting in an appearance. I have tickets to Obama and Trump. The Oprah tickets sold out (for free) in a few minutes. She is here to support Abrams. Not bothered about Pence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Scaramucci expecting a potential recession in 2020 – I mostly wonder how Trump would respond to blame for the economy downturning, whether or not it would be reasonable to blame him.

    Bloomberg mentioned as someone who could take on Trump?

    Frankly I am not surprised that he thinks Harris and Warren, as women, might struggle to fight Trump’s particular rough style.

    Apparently Trump has an upbeat sense of humour. I find that hard to believe when he has such thin skin – I find it easier to believe that he might well be fun to hang around with so long as no one challenged him on anything.

    Bloomberg if he runs will likely run as an independent e.g. if it is Trump v Sanders or Trump v Warren and he can be the centrist alternative. He is too centrist and corporate to win the Democratic primaries in 2020
    Well, presumably he at least has the money to run if he wanted to.
    Yes, he did not run on 2016 as he did not think he could win and did not want to split Hillary's vote.

    If there is no centrist option in the general election in 2020 though he has suggested he may run regardless and he can as you say bankroll his campaign as a third party or independent candidate as Perot did in 1992 and 1996
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Labour are favourites, but it is not straightforward.

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions, (ii) the Labour Welsh Government has managed to reduce Wales to a state of unprecedented fuckedupedness.

    Locally, the abolition of Severn Bridge Tolls in December (for which the Tories can claim some credit) will certainly be popular ..... though I expect the long-term effects to be disastrous.

    All in all, the price looks about right to me.
    Newport West going blue for the first time since (technically) 1945 (real world 1935) would be quite an upset, but it's not out of the question. I'd say one in ten rather than one in five though. May depend on who the candidates are.

    Why do you think abolishing the Severn Bridge Tolls will be disastrous?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    John_M said:
    Not so much a crouch as a Hidden Dragon?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions
    Will it? Seems like sticking to the wavering, all things to all men, approach of the national party would work ok, in that it might see a bit of a hit by ducking on a major issue, but it won't split them at the seams and they're in a comfortable enough position that that can be bourne in this seat at least.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,106
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517

    People assume because it involves young people it cannot be all that bad, though it very much can be?
    Being hit with a chair is pretty serious, from painful personal experience.

    I must admit, my reaction if I were one of those staff would be to call the police and lay criminal charges of assault, plus do the council in for conspiracy.
    I agree it is very serious. I don't know why we don't see more stories like this. I'm just speculating that people may note that it is bad, but not quite understand how bad it is, because it is 'children' or young people and thus not as serious as adult on adult. When of course, not to mention other issues, plenty of young people are physically as big or bigger than plenty of teachers.
    If somebody behaved like that to a member of staff on the railways - almost all of whom are more highly paid than teachers, despite the fact only the driver has any sort of meaningful level of responsibility - BTP would be along in a brace of shakes, and put them before the magistrates, rightly so.

    If it happened in a hospital, treatment would be refused and porters called to evict them, by force if necessary.

    Yet here, we have the council siding with people who have committed alleged criminal offences.

    It stinks.

    It is a while since I have been assaulted at work*, but I agree.

    There should be no special status for any victim of assault so that one is prosecuted and another is not. The young age should mean being dealt with by an appropriate policing team, but it does not excuse inaction. I am sure that these boys come from very difficult backgrounds, but they do have agency, and should be punished accordingly.

    *About a year back, I stopped to assist a paramedic at an RTA. Not so much medically, but to prevent the Paramedic from being assaulted while treating an unconscios man.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,988
    ydoethur said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Labour are favourites, but it is not straightforward.

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions, (ii) the Labour Welsh Government has managed to reduce Wales to a state of unprecedented fuckedupedness.

    Locally, the abolition of Severn Bridge Tolls in December (for which the Tories can claim some credit) will certainly be popular ..... though I expect the long-term effects to be disastrous.

    All in all, the price looks about right to me.
    Newport West going blue for the first time since (technically) 1945 (real world 1935) would be quite an upset, but it's not out of the question. I'd say one in ten rather than one in five though. May depend on who the candidates are.

    Why do you think abolishing the Severn Bridge Tolls will be disastrous?
    When two adjacent regions become linked, and one is richer and more centrally located, while the other is poorer and less centrally located, then the effect is always to make the richer region still richer.

    For example, retail jobs in Newport, Monmouth, Chepstow will go, as shoppers will prefer to go to Bristol. Distribution jobs will go, as they will be increasingly serviced from Bristol.

    Road congestion will increase as roads will not be able to cope with the increased traffic, as Chepstow and Monmouth become commuter suburbs of Bristol.

    House prices in Gwent will spiral out of control of local people.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,163
    John_M said:
    She's generally seen as a good egg - a loyalist but not blind to everything.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,988
    kle4 said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions
    Will it? Seems like sticking to the wavering, all things to all men, approach of the national party would work ok, in that it might see a bit of a hit by ducking on a major issue, but it won't split them at the seams and they're in a comfortable enough position that that can be bourne in this seat at least.
    It has been a remarkable performance, but I can't see how Labour's evasiveness can really continue much longer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255

    kle4 said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions
    Will it? Seems like sticking to the wavering, all things to all men, approach of the national party would work ok, in that it might see a bit of a hit by ducking on a major issue, but it won't split them at the seams and they're in a comfortable enough position that that can be bourne in this seat at least.
    It has been a remarkable performance, but I can't see how Labour's evasiveness can really continue much longer.
    I think they are just spinning it out as long the government kicks the can, which has been an impressively long time. Once the government succeeds or fails with actually getting something through parliament and the Tories have a high chance of collapsing into chaos, then Labour can pick a side (to at least some extent more than they currently have) and trust that dissatisfaction at government incompetence will paper over any lingering issues with their having been evasive previously.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,811

    ydoethur said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Labour are favourites, but it is not straightforward.

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions, (ii) the Labour Welsh Government has managed to reduce Wales to a state of unprecedented fuckedupedness.

    Locally, the abolition of Severn Bridge Tolls in December (for which the Tories can claim some credit) will certainly be popular ..... though I expect the long-term effects to be disastrous.

    All in all, the price looks about right to me.
    Newport West going blue for the first time since (technically) 1945 (real world 1935) would be quite an upset, but it's not out of the question. I'd say one in ten rather than one in five though. May depend on who the candidates are.

    Why do you think abolishing the Severn Bridge Tolls will be disastrous?
    When two adjacent regions become linked, and one is richer and more centrally located, while the other is poorer and less centrally located, then the effect is always to make the richer region still richer.

    For example, retail jobs in Newport, Monmouth, Chepstow will go, as shoppers will prefer to go to Bristol. Distribution jobs will go, as they will be increasingly serviced from Bristol.

    Road congestion will increase as roads will not be able to cope with the increased traffic, as Chepstow and Monmouth become commuter suburbs of Bristol.

    House prices in Gwent will spiral out of control of local people.
    Land and house prices in South Gwent have been rising, but from a low base. Locals so far ( I work there) see it as more of a boon than a problem ( that has its limits, sure). Industrial land values are well up (struggling to see the issue there), but unless the Welsh Govt actually build the M4 relief road any benefit will stop dead at the eastern end of the Bryn Glas tunnel in Newport, as nobody in possession of sanity will want to build a factory west of there because of the traffic congestion.

    I am not hopeful that our AM’s will give the road the go ahead though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Here is a question.

    Why are teachers expected to put up with things like this when NHS workers are not?

    Eleven teachers sent home after refusing to teach 'unruly pupils'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-46047517

    People assume because it involves young people it cannot be all that bad, though it very much can be?
    Being hit with a chair is pretty serious, from painful personal experience.

    I must admit, my reaction if I were one of those staff would be to call the police and lay criminal charges of assault, plus do the council in for conspiracy.
    I agree it is very serious. I don't know why we don't see more stories like this. I'm just speculating that people may note that it is bad, but not quite understand how bad it is, because it is 'children' or young people and thus not as serious as adult on adult. When of course, not to mention other issues, plenty of young people are physically as big or bigger than plenty of teachers.
    If somebody behaved like that to a member of staff on the railways - almost all of whom are more highly paid than teachers, despite the fact only the driver has any sort of meaningful level of responsibility - BTP would be along in a brace of shakes, and put them before the magistrates, rightly so.

    If it happened in a hospital, treatment would be refused and porters called to evict them, by force if necessary.

    Yet here, we have the council siding with people who have committed alleged criminal offences.

    It stinks.
    It is completely unacceptable.
    (As an aside, a third of of Local Authority Pupil Referral Units are full -
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/school-exclusions-pupils-knife-crime-violence-pupil-referral-units-education-barnardos-a8609046.html )

    There does appear to be a growing problem of unsocialised children in schools, and an expectation that teachers take on responsibilities that a number of parents appear to have abandoned.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677

    John_M said:
    She's generally seen as a good egg - a loyalist but not blind to everything.
    I couldn’t vote for somebody who wants to represent me in Parliament, but thinks how they voted in the EU referendum should be a private matter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    Tim_B said:

    Big weekend down here. Oprah, Obama and Trump are all here (or in Macon) this weekend. Even Pence is rumored to be putting in an appearance. I have tickets to Obama and Trump. The Oprah tickets sold out (for free) in a few minutes. She is here to support Abrams. Not bothered about Pence.

    Is anyone ?
    Other than by the thought he would be the consequence of successfully impeaching Trump.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,277
    RoyalBlue said:

    I couldn’t vote for somebody who wants to represent me in Parliament, but thinks how they voted in the EU referendum should be a private matter.

    That would be the perfect MP.

    I can't vote for my local MP because he is a Brexiteer
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,722
    John_M said:
    I am similarly furious about that delay. In my view it is simply not to apparently recognise that FOBT at the current limit does real harm, but decide not to change it yet....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473
    edited October 31
    O/T

    "We need to catch burglars not sexists, says police chief Sara Thornton"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-need-to-catch-burglars-not-misogynists-says-police-chief-xplsm9px9
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    The Scottish school is, however, a Special School, so not exactly typical of general education.

    From their website:
    Kaimes is a school for pupils who have complex, long term additional support needs where the presumption of mainstream can not be met. Our learners require support with social and pragmatic communication needs associated with Autism Spectrum. Provision at Kaimes will be considered alongside other special provision in the authority, Language and Communication classes (Primary) and enhanced provision (Secondary) in order to identify the most appropriate specialist setting. The school currently has 6 classes in Primary and 10 in Secondary based around groups of 6 pupils per class.

    I suspect this story is a little less simple than it appears.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Why is a by-election in this seat being talked about?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,779
    Scott_P said:
    The only sensible assumption is that Raab knows HMG are going to concede enough to satisfy the EU... just not until after the budget resolutions have been passed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    edited October 31
    Nigelb said:

    The Scottish school is, however, a Special School, so not exactly typical of general education.

    From their website:
    Kaimes is a school for pupils who have complex, long term additional support needs where the presumption of mainstream can not be met. Our learners require support with social and pragmatic communication needs associated with Autism Spectrum. Provision at Kaimes will be considered alongside other special provision in the authority, Language and Communication classes (Primary) and enhanced provision (Secondary) in order to identify the most appropriate specialist setting. The school currently has 6 classes in Primary and 10 in Secondary based around groups of 6 pupils per class.

    I suspect this story is a little less simple than it appears.

    I was aware of that at the time I posted it. It is still totally unacceptable.

    If police have had to be called in because of the violence of the pupils, the council should not be siding with the latter. All other considerations aside, there seems a real risk such behaviour will set off the others and lead to a cycle of violence.

    And I say that as somebody who has worked in a specialist autism unit and works with a number of students with very severe autism and behavioural problems now.

    Edit - please remember, that would still not be accepted as an excuse in a hospital or a railway station.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,988
    welshowl said:



    Land and house prices in South Gwent have been rising, but from a low base. Locals so far ( I work there) see it as more of a boon than a problem ( that has its limits, sure). Industrial land values are well up (struggling to see the issue there), but unless the Welsh Govt actually build the M4 relief road any benefit will stop dead at the eastern end of the Bryn Glas tunnel in Newport, as nobody in possession of sanity will want to build a factory west of there because of the traffic congestion.

    I am not hopeful that our AM’s will give the road the go ahead though.

    You mean you want to spend ALL of the transport budget for the next 20 years on an new motorway that is on a route parallel to an existing high capacity railway line.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    AndyJS said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Why is a by-election in this seat being talked about?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-45975674
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,779
    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I couldn’t vote for somebody who wants to represent me in Parliament, but thinks how they voted in the EU referendum should be a private matter.

    That would be the perfect MP.

    I can't vote for my local MP because he is a Brexiteer
    Yeah, I can't vote for my MP because he's a Tory.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,991
    AndyJS said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Why is a by-election in this seat being talked about?
    The incumbent is ill and old, early 80s, and I think has said he is retiring
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,988
    AndyJS said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Why is a by-election in this seat being talked about?
    The 83-year old sitting MP has indicated that he wants to retire.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,811

    welshowl said:



    Land and house prices in South Gwent have been rising, but from a low base. Locals so far ( I work there) see it as more of a boon than a problem ( that has its limits, sure). Industrial land values are well up (struggling to see the issue there), but unless the Welsh Govt actually build the M4 relief road any benefit will stop dead at the eastern end of the Bryn Glas tunnel in Newport, as nobody in possession of sanity will want to build a factory west of there because of the traffic congestion.

    I am not hopeful that our AM’s will give the road the go ahead though.

    You mean you want to spend ALL of the transport budget for the next 20 years on an new motorway that is on a route parallel to an existing high capacity railway line.
    Yes. Because it’s the vital artery for two thirds of Wales’ people, and I can’t move goods in and out flexibly other than by road. Without a road the goods economy will atrophy.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,988
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:



    Land and house prices in South Gwent have been rising, but from a low base. Locals so far ( I work there) see it as more of a boon than a problem ( that has its limits, sure). Industrial land values are well up (struggling to see the issue there), but unless the Welsh Govt actually build the M4 relief road any benefit will stop dead at the eastern end of the Bryn Glas tunnel in Newport, as nobody in possession of sanity will want to build a factory west of there because of the traffic congestion.

    I am not hopeful that our AM’s will give the road the go ahead though.

    You mean you want to spend ALL of the transport budget for the next 20 years on an new motorway that is on a route parallel to an existing high capacity railway line.
    Yes. Because it’s the vital artery for two thirds of Wales’ people, and I can’t move goods in and out flexibly other than by road. Without a road the goods economy will atrophy.
    No, there are just too many commuters and too many cars on the M4.

    There are at least 3 major bottlenecks: Junction 33, Taff's Well, and Brynglas. These bottlenecks are choked with commuters in their cars going to work in Cardiff.

    They do it because there’s no practical alternative. The challenge is to remove those commuters from cars and put them on public transport.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 989
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "We need to catch burglars not sexists, says police chief Sara Thornton"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-need-to-catch-burglars-not-misogynists-says-police-chief-xplsm9px9

    Pretty on topic actually, given some of what Scaramucci says about Trump's appeal. He appeals to the sort of "common sense" type who think political correctness has gone mad. They don't always agree with him, but they love that he speaks his mind and isn't afraid to offend. As long as people continue to push that things like "microagressions" actually exist there's always going to be people like Trump there to push back.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,191

    John_M said:
    She's generally seen as a good egg - a loyalist but not blind to everything.
    In all honesty until Monday I thought that the Government had already ended the ability of someone to bankrupt themselves in minutes on an addictive FOBT. The fact that they still haven't and aren't going to for another year is a disgrace. It's excellent news that an otherwise loyal minister feels strongly enough to threaten to resign over the issue - good for her. Good for Justin Welby too for the criticising the Government in such strong terms ("reprehensible").
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473
    kyf_100 said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "We need to catch burglars not sexists, says police chief Sara Thornton"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/we-need-to-catch-burglars-not-misogynists-says-police-chief-xplsm9px9

    Pretty on topic actually, given some of what Scaramucci says about Trump's appeal. He appeals to the sort of "common sense" type who think political correctness has gone mad. They don't always agree with him, but they love that he speaks his mind and isn't afraid to offend. As long as people continue to push that things like "microagressions" actually exist there's always going to be people like Trump there to push back.
    An interesting recent survey found that 80% of Americans didn't support the latest incarnation of "political correctness".
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,722

    Scott_P said:
    The only sensible assumption is that Raab knows HMG are going to concede enough to satisfy the EU... just not until after the budget resolutions have been passed.
    As has always been the case, the EU are bluffing with the backstop. It is an attempt to tie us indefinitely to the single market and customs union.

    Indications tonight (telegraph lead article), and in the DAG (I think?) piece in the FT a few weeks ago suggest that some in Brussels have realised their error....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Scottish school is, however, a Special School, so not exactly typical of general education.

    From their website:
    Kaimes is a school for pupils who have complex, long term additional support needs where the presumption of mainstream can not be met. Our learners require support with social and pragmatic communication needs associated with Autism Spectrum. Provision at Kaimes will be considered alongside other special provision in the authority, Language and Communication classes (Primary) and enhanced provision (Secondary) in order to identify the most appropriate specialist setting. The school currently has 6 classes in Primary and 10 in Secondary based around groups of 6 pupils per class.

    I suspect this story is a little less simple than it appears.

    I was aware of that at the time I posted it. It is still totally unacceptable.

    If police have had to be called in because of the violence of the pupils, the council should not be siding with the latter. All other considerations aside, there seems a real risk such behaviour will set off the others and lead to a cycle of violence.

    And I say that as somebody who has worked in a specialist autism unit and works with a number of students with very severe autism and behavioural problems now.

    Edit - please remember, that would still not be accepted as an excuse in a hospital or a railway station.
    The police were called “on some occasions”.
    My point was that on the very limited facts reported, it’s quite hard to make a judgment about exactly what has gone wrong here.
    School mangement evidently have been the opposite of supportive - and that likely goes well back to dealing with the problems that led to the current confrontation.

    Someone has to deal with these kids, and this ought to have been one of the institutions capable of doing so.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,722

    John_M said:
    She's generally seen as a good egg - a loyalist but not blind to everything.
    In all honesty until Monday I thought that the Government had already ended the ability of someone to bankrupt themselves in minutes on an addictive FOBT. The fact that they still haven't and aren't going to for another year is a disgrace. It's excellent news that an otherwise loyal minister feels strongly enough to threaten to resign over the issue - good for her. Good for Justin Welby too for the criticising the Government in such strong terms ("reprehensible").
    +1

    It is really poor optics. I was truly proud of this government for committing to this change. Why on earth can't it be made sooner?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:
    She's generally seen as a good egg - a loyalist but not blind to everything.
    In all honesty until Monday I thought that the Government had already ended the ability of someone to bankrupt themselves in minutes on an addictive FOBT. The fact that they still haven't and aren't going to for another year is a disgrace. It's excellent news that an otherwise loyal minister feels strongly enough to threaten to resign over the issue - good for her. Good for Justin Welby too for the criticising the Government in such strong terms ("reprehensible").
    +1

    It is really poor optics. I was truly proud of this government for committing to this change. Why on earth can't it be made sooner?
    Spreadsheet Phil and gambling lobbyists.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565
    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,587
    edited October 31
    Wasn't there recent polling about how people felt when celebrities publicly support a particular political position? Wonder how it applies to bona fide all American heroes?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,163
    AndyJS said:



    An interesting recent survey found that 80% of Americans didn't support the latest incarnation of "political correctness".

    It's a term rarely used by those who agree with it - supporters would say it's simply courtesy not to talk in a way that others might reasonably think derogatory. I shouldn't think that 80% of Americans would disagree with that. The problem, of course, is what we think is reasonable.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    The only sensible assumption is that Raab knows HMG are going to concede enough to satisfy the EU... just not until after the budget resolutions have been passed.
    As has always been the case, the EU are bluffing with the backstop. It is an attempt to tie us indefinitely to the single market and customs union.

    Indications tonight (telegraph lead article), and in the DAG (I think?) piece in the FT a few weeks ago suggest that some in Brussels have realised their error....
    By the time deadline day arrives everyone will be so anxious to cut a deal that extremists like you will be just voices baying in the darkness.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,280
    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284

    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

    Perhaps Britons are concerned about the role the PM plays in the appointment of CoE bishops? :p
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565

    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

    He was better in the second part of the show, I’ll grant you, and that was a good answer. (Although the fact that other countries are even worse is hardly something to be proud of).

    Point of order: Javid is not a Muslim, he’s an atheist brought up as a Muslim AIUI. Why can’t we good atheists just be called atheists?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

    He was better in the second part of the show, I’ll grant you, and that was a good answer. (Although the fact that other countries are even worse is hardly something to be proud of).

    Point of order: Javid is not a Muslim, he’s an atheist brought up as a Muslim AIUI. Why can’t we good atheists just be called atheists?
    Because our identity politics-obsessed media would then have to think and operate in a more nuanced way.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,468
    ydoethur said:

    I see Ladbrokes have Lab 1/4 in Newport West. Do the Tories really stand a 20% chance, in the middle of such a difficult period of government, to gain a seat in a byelection?

    Labour are favourites, but it is not straightforward.

    (i) Newport was 56 per cent Leave, so a by-election will require some finesse in not exposing Labour's Brexit divisions, (ii) the Labour Welsh Government has managed to reduce Wales to a state of unprecedented fuckedupedness.

    Locally, the abolition of Severn Bridge Tolls in December (for which the Tories can claim some credit) will certainly be popular ..... though I expect the long-term effects to be disastrous.

    All in all, the price looks about right to me.
    Newport West going blue for the first time since (technically) 1945 (real world 1935) would be quite an upset, but it's not out of the question. I'd say one in ten rather than one in five though. May depend on who the candidates are.

    Why do you think abolishing the Severn Bridge Tolls will be disastrous?
    It actually went Tory in 1983!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    The only sensible assumption is that Raab knows HMG are going to concede enough to satisfy the EU... just not until after the budget resolutions have been passed.
    As has always been the case, the EU are bluffing with the backstop. It is an attempt to tie us indefinitely to the single market and customs union.

    Indications tonight (telegraph lead article), and in the DAG (I think?) piece in the FT a few weeks ago suggest that some in Brussels have realised their error....
    The Telegraph lead article says Barnier is under “growing pressure” to accept the UK’s idea of tying ourselves to the customs union indefinitely!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 15,238

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:



    Land and house prices in South Gwent have been rising, but from a low base. Locals so far ( I work there) see it as more of a boon than a problem ( that has its limits, sure). Industrial land values are well up (struggling to see the issue there), but unless the Welsh Govt actually build the M4 relief road any benefit will stop dead at the eastern end of the Bryn Glas tunnel in Newport, as nobody in possession of sanity will want to build a factory west of there because of the traffic congestion.

    I am not hopeful that our AM’s will give the road the go ahead though.

    You mean you want to spend ALL of the transport budget for the next 20 years on an new motorway that is on a route parallel to an existing high capacity railway line.
    Yes. Because it’s the vital artery for two thirds of Wales’ people, and I can’t move goods in and out flexibly other than by road. Without a road the goods economy will atrophy.
    No, there are just too many commuters and too many cars on the M4.

    There are at least 3 major bottlenecks: Junction 33, Taff's Well, and Brynglas. These bottlenecks are choked with commuters in their cars going to work in Cardiff.

    They do it because there’s no practical alternative. The challenge is to remove those commuters from cars and put them on public transport.
    No the challenge is to have a road for those cars to drive on.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,608
    Before GE 2005 Howard said he would play no part in appointing bishops - another senior minister would take over all such responsibilities including advising the Queen.

    Presumably Javid would do the same.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284
    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,993
    edited November 1
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

    He was better in the second part of the show, I’ll grant you, and that was a good answer. (Although the fact that other countries are even worse is hardly something to be proud of).

    Point of order: Javid is not a Muslim, he’s an atheist brought up as a Muslim AIUI. Why can’t we good atheists just be called atheists?
    I don't think you get to sign him up to the atheist tribe without his consent :-D !

    According to Sadiq:

    'My own family's heritage is Muslim. Myself and my four brothers were brought up to believe in God, but I do not practise any religion. My wife is a practising Christian and the only religion practised in my house is Christianity."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sajid_Javid#Religion

    I'd call that "nominal Muslim" if force to summarise without more of a precise statement.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,993
    RobD said:

    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

    Perhaps Britons are concerned about the role the PM plays in the appointment of CoE bishops? :p
    Is this not in practice a choice between the Red Pill and the Blue Pill, though the PM now selects the Pill presented first in the list?

    Wikipedia has a superb tongue-in-cheek description:

    "The appointment of Church of England diocesan bishops follows a somewhat convoluted process, reflecting the church's traditional tendency towards compromise and ad hoc solutions, traditional ambiguity between hierarchy and democracy, and traditional role as a semi-autonomous state church."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appointment_of_Church_of_England_bishops

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501
    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    edited November 1
    MattW said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Hmm. Javid really is overrated. I am one of those who has been doing the overrating!

    He was better in the second part of the show, I’ll grant you, and that was a good answer. (Although the fact that other countries are even worse is hardly something to be proud of).

    Point of order: Javid is not a Muslim, he’s an atheist brought up as a Muslim AIUI. Why can’t we good atheists just be called atheists?
    I don't think you get to sign him up to the atheist tribe without his consent :-D !

    According to Sadiq:

    'My own family's heritage is Muslim. Myself and my four brothers were brought up to believe in God, but I do not practise any religion. My wife is a practising Christian and the only religion practised in my house is Christianity."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sajid_Javid#Religion

    I'd call that "nominal Muslim" if force to summarise without more of a precise statement.
    Or perhaps an atheist who believes there is no olitical upside in declaring it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,833

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,833

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
    But, if the latter doesn’t happen, you’ll certainly be arguing for the former.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,425

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
    But, if the latter doesn’t happen, you’ll certainly be arguing for the former.

    The UK will get the deal the EU wants to give us or we’ll get no deal. It has nothing to do with capitulation, it’s just reality. This was always going to be the case.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    Now this is surreal:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tax-cut-break-jeremy-corbyn-labour-conservative-party-rich-threshold-rate-a8611321.html

    Labour centrists revolting against Corbyn because his tax policies are insufficiently left-wing is extraordinary.

    Moreover, uniquely perhaps, this could represent a danger to him. If Labour members get the idea Corbyn is on the side of the rich and the Blairites on the side of the poor...

    Whatever the fiscal shortcomings of his budget, Hammond must be convulsed with laughter this morning at its political success.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,062
    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:
    She's generally seen as a good egg - a loyalist but not blind to everything.
    In all honesty until Monday I thought that the Government had already ended the ability of someone to bankrupt themselves in minutes on an addictive FOBT. The fact that they still haven't and aren't going to for another year is a disgrace. It's excellent news that an otherwise loyal minister feels strongly enough to threaten to resign over the issue - good for her. Good for Justin Welby too for the criticising the Government in such strong terms ("reprehensible").
    +1

    It is really poor optics. I was truly proud of this government for committing to this change. Why on earth can't it be made sooner?
    The power of backroom lobbying.

    Credit to the resigning minister; she surely knows who has decided to cave to the industry, and why.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,833

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
    But, if the latter doesn’t happen, you’ll certainly be arguing for the former.

    The UK will get the deal the EU wants to give us or we’ll get no deal. It has nothing to do with capitulation, it’s just reality. This was always going to be the case.

    And so the Remainer myth continues that the deal will be 100% shaped by the EU, with the UK purely as supplicants.

    It won’t be. This is a negotiation. Evidence so far suggests the balance of negotiations are at about 65/35 in the EU’s favour, not 100/0.

    It is true to say it’s not 50/50. But that doesn’t mean it is therefore 100/0, because it isn’t.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,062
    edited November 1

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
    But, if the latter doesn’t happen, you’ll certainly be arguing for the former.

    The UK will get the deal the EU wants to give us or we’ll get no deal. It has nothing to do with capitulation, it’s just reality. This was always going to be the case.

    And so the Remainer myth continues that the deal will be 100% shaped by the EU, with the UK purely as supplicants.

    It won’t be. This is a negotiation. Evidence so far suggests the balance of negotiations are at about 65/35 in the EU’s favour, not 100/0.

    It is true to say it’s not 50/50. But that doesn’t mean it is therefore 100/0, because it isn’t.
    One can argue the percentages, but that is the nub of the matter. Those leavers who suggested that all we had to do is threaten the German car industry, or whatever, and the EU would give us everything we wanted were always talking tosh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
    But, if the latter doesn’t happen, you’ll certainly be arguing for the former.

    The UK will get the deal the EU wants to give us or we’ll get no deal. It has nothing to do with capitulation, it’s just reality. This was always going to be the case.

    And so the Remainer myth continues that the deal will be 100% shaped by the EU, with the UK purely as supplicants.

    It won’t be. This is a negotiation. Evidence so far suggests the balance of negotiations are at about 65/35 in the EU’s favour, not 100/0.

    It is true to say it’s not 50/50. But that doesn’t mean it is therefore 100/0, because it isn’t.
    So what ground on matters of substance have the EU given to the UK so far?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,501
    Am I alone in finding the Keiran Pedley podcast almost inaudible, due to either interference or poor quality?
    Pity.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,833
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    UK/EU financial services deal agreed, apparently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46053283

    Interesting phrasing: "London had agreed in negotiations with Brussels to give UK financial services firms continued access to the bloc."

    It implies that the UK has capitulated to the EU's terms under pressure from business.
    You hope.
    No, I hope that the UK avoids capitulating and instead remains in the EU.
    But, if the latter doesn’t happen, you’ll certainly be arguing for the former.

    The UK will get the deal the EU wants to give us or we’ll get no deal. It has nothing to do with capitulation, it’s just reality. This was always going to be the case.

    And so the Remainer myth continues that the deal will be 100% shaped by the EU, with the UK purely as supplicants.

    It won’t be. This is a negotiation. Evidence so far suggests the balance of negotiations are at about 65/35 in the EU’s favour, not 100/0.

    It is true to say it’s not 50/50. But that doesn’t mean it is therefore 100/0, because it isn’t.
    One can argue the percentages, but that is the nub of the matter. Those leavers who suggested that all we had to do is threaten the German car industry, or whatever, and the EU would give us everything we wanted were always talking tosh.
    That’s not the point at all.

    Leavers who thought it’d be 100/0 in the UK’s favour are just as wrong.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,832

    Am I alone in finding the Keiran Pedley podcast almost inaudible, due to either interference or poor quality?
    Pity.

    fine for me
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 45,978
    edited November 1
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hmm. Shows the site as not secure, with a warning mark.

    Edited extra bit: bit safer via Vanilla.

    Also, nice scoop. Will listen to this when I get a chance.
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