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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Apart from the Chequers wobble Leave voters broadly staying wi

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    edited November 2018
    Afternoon again all :)

    Keeping up with polls in foreign places:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1058018459475419136
    Off to Slovenia we go...

    As we know, SDS are the main opposition party to the five-party coalition currently in charge. The only problem they have is there was an election earlier this year so they may have to wait a while.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    Nigelb said:

    I've just read this:

    "Piers Morgan, one of England’s greatest proponent of civil rights, democracy, rule of law and freedom of speech, ..."

    https://canadafreepress.com/

    Well, he does have one thing in common with Paine...
    Weeks after John F. Kennedy was gunned down by an assassin, the Emergency Civil Liberties Union presented Bob Dylan with the Tom Paine award,


    As I Went Out One Morning

    As I went out one morning
    To breathe the air around Tom Paine's
    I spied the fairest damsel
    That ever did walk in chains
    I offer'd her my hand
    She took me by the arm
    I knew that very instant
    She meant to do me harm

    Depart from me this moment
    I told her with my voice
    Said she, but I don't wish to
    Said I, But you have no choice
    I beg you, sir, she pleaded
    From the corners of her mouth
    I will secretly accept you
    And together we'll fly south

    Just then Tom Paine, himself
    Came running from across the field
    Shouting at this lovely girl
    And commanding her to yield
    And as she was letting go her grip
    Up Tom Paine did run
    I'm sorry, sir, he said to me
    I'm sorry for what she's done

    Songwriter: Bob Dylan

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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anorak said:

    A great deal of wishful thinking on Twitter. While I'd like them to be right, I'm 99.99% sure they have a snowball's chance in hell of overturning the referendum.
    https://twitter.com/NikGammon/status/1057995632525430784

    The problem is that opinion has barely shifted since June 2016 and Remain can't be at all confident they wouldn't be defeated again.

    A better route for them is to play it long with Theresa/Robbins vasselhood and campaign to rejoin in 5-10 years.
    Problem with that is even if they won the actual re-accession process could easily take another 5-10 years after that. And if the UK had left and locked it into an arrangement without much downside to the EU, it's not obvious everyone in the EU with a veto would want to let the UK back in.
    No. Europe is not a menu of options from which a country is free to choose any combination. It's amazing how British politicians fail to understand this - May talks of her deal, some Tories want the "Norway option" or the "Canada option" and then we have the Starmer option a "jobs first Brexit". All of these mythical "options" are advanced in the U.K. as serious choices but in practice none are available as they all rely on the agreement of other countries and these countries are not prepared to offer such an agreement. The only "options" available to the U.K. are accepting the EU's terms or a cliff edge departure. And if we leave and then try to rejoin it will be on the EUs terms.
    You are suggesting the UK shouldn't have bothered sending negotiators, and just accepted whatever as proposed?
    That would probably have got us a better result than May's counterproductive effort to drive wedges between EU countries and the Commission. As an object lesson in how not to conduct a negotiation Davis and May cannot be bettered.
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    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. L, what's happened?

    The budget sought to delay the already announced restriction for another year. Crouch threatened to resign over it. May is now apparently climbing down because she would lose the vote. So we have gone from bravely facing down the gambling industry to being pathetic to being even more pathetic when called it. As I said, genius!
    In an otherwise good budget how could the treasury not see how bad delaying this measure to help bookies would look.

    Not in touch seems to ring a bell
    This is one of the Tories Achilles heels. Policies on things that they haven’t got a clue about. These things cause misery in already deprived communities. Any delay is unacceptable. It like the pasty tax and caravan tax. No Tory goes to Greggs or on caravan holidays - they don’t have a clue how these things come across in communities who do.
    yeah, we all saw what a long term effect the pasty tax had. single-handedly changed the course of the 2010-2015 parliament.

    yeah.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,612
    stodge said:

    Afternoon again all :)

    Keeping up with polls in foreign places:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1058018459475419136
    Off to Slovenia we go...

    As we know, SDS are the main opposition party to the five-party coalition currently in charge. The only problem they have is there was an election earlier this year so they may have to wait a while.

    They appear to have 4 lots of LibDems. What a frightening thought.
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    stodge said:

    Afternoon again all :)

    Keeping up with polls in foreign places:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1058018459475419136
    Off to Slovenia we go...

    As we know, SDS are the main opposition party to the five-party coalition currently in charge. The only problem they have is there was an election earlier this year so they may have to wait a while.

    They appear to have 4 lots of LibDems. What a frightening thought.
    In the Uk we still have Liberal and Lib Dem but I think the SDP has now sunk without trace.
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    ... and do you all remember the fuss over this one!

    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02857/Grant_Shapps_BINGO_2857434b.jpg

    so much faux outrage, so few hours in the day.

    yeah.
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    MikeL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. L, what's happened?

    The budget sought to delay the already announced restriction for another year. Crouch threatened to resign over it. May is now apparently climbing down because she would lose the vote. So we have gone from bravely facing down the gambling industry to being pathetic to being even more pathetic when called it. As I said, genius!
    In an otherwise good budget how could the treasury not see how bad delaying this measure to help bookies would look.

    Not in touch seems to ring a bell
    Not sure it’s a good budget. It seems to have abandoned the need to eliminate the deficit, if sees us adding to our humongous debt mountain, it basically assumes that we will have a stable period of growth for another 5 years when we have already had 8 in this cycle, it seriously risks us going into the next downturn still in deficit and it contained far too many gimmicks.
    Not sure that's fair - debt as % of GDP falls pretty significantly over the next few years.

    And a deficit of just 1% of GDP is very low by historical standards.

    Given the huge and unavoidable demands on the NHS given the ageing population I think the above is more than a reasonable result.

    But the tax take as a proportion of GDP is said to be the highest since 1969.
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    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. L, what's happened?

    The budget sought to delay the already announced restriction for another year. Crouch threatened to resign over it. May is now apparently climbing down because she would lose the vote. So we have gone from bravely facing down the gambling industry to being pathetic to being even more pathetic when called it. As I said, genius!
    In an otherwise good budget how could the treasury not see how bad delaying this measure to help bookies would look.

    Not in touch seems to ring a bell
    Probably because, as I understand it, there is no delay.

    In June there was an Early Day Motion (1440) expressing concern that the stake was not due to be reduced until April 2020. In September Crouch told an all party group that the stake would be reduced "in the financial year starting April 2019". October 2019 is very definitely in that financial year.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,595

    Nigelb said:
    I saw Dylan first at Birmingham in Spring 1965 when it was still just him and his guitar. Later that year i saw him again when he came on with The Band in the second half. We did not boo because we were in shock.

    Subsequently I thought he was at his peak when I saw him in 1978 at Blackbushe.

    Although I have seen him seven times I no longer go to his concerts because his voice has gone - especially later in the tours. Instead I listen to the many tapes of his old concerts which are still emerging.

    There must be well over 100 fantastic original songs written by Dylan and he is still writing more. He should find other singers to join his Never Ending Tour and help sing his songs for him. Who will tell him?
    He's just having fun now - and who can blame him.

    We did not boo because we were in shock.
    LOL.

    must be well over 100 fantastic original songs written by Dylan
    I like Barb Jungr's covers a lot.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    ... and do you all remember the fuss over this one!

    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02857/Grant_Shapps_BINGO_2857434b.jpg

    so much faux outrage, so few hours in the day.

    yeah.

    I can confirm (As it interrupts gigs) bingo is still alive and well in WMCs up here.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    Me_ said:

    Isn't Brazilian politics the biggest real House of Cards ever? Bolsonaro just invited the Judge, Moro, that arrested Lula (who would be candidate if not for his now very suspicious condemnation) to be his Justice Minister. He accepted.

    Any judge prepared to stand up to the corrupt ex president (Lula) is likely to be good at fighting corruption - which is what Bolsonaro is seeking.
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    DavidL said:

    It takes real f****** genius to take cutting the maximum bet on FOTBs to £2 and turn it into a bad news story. Very few other than the politically inept May and her even more other worldly Chancellor could have managed it.

    For £100m? I mean, what planet are these people on?

    The planet where someone lobbied them about lost jobs probably. Which is crazy, since the jobs would go, if they do really go, in October now rather than April.
    And why might the government be keen to avoid newspapers screaming about lost jobs in April rather than in October?
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    I saw Dylan first at Birmingham in Spring 1965 when it was still just him and his guitar. Later that year i saw him again when he came on with The Band in the second half. We did not boo because we were in shock.

    Subsequently I thought he was at his peak when I saw him in 1978 at Blackbushe.

    Although I have seen him seven times I no longer go to his concerts because his voice has gone - especially later in the tours. Instead I listen to the many tapes of his old concerts which are still emerging.

    There must be well over 100 fantastic original songs written by Dylan and he is still writing more. He should find other singers to join his Never Ending Tour and help sing his songs for him. Who will tell him?
    He's just having fun now - and who can blame him.

    We did not boo because we were in shock.
    LOL.

    must be well over 100 fantastic original songs written by Dylan
    I like Barb Jungr's covers a lot.
    Bob Dylan has always been a far better songwriter than singer.

    I enjoyed the West End musical Girl From The North Country, which overcame this feature. (The storyline was perhaps better suited to other people than me, mind.)
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    stodge said:

    Afternoon again all :)

    Keeping up with polls in foreign places:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1058018459475419136
    Off to Slovenia we go...

    As we know, SDS are the main opposition party to the five-party coalition currently in charge. The only problem they have is there was an election earlier this year so they may have to wait a while.

    They appear to have 4 lots of LibDems. What a frightening thought.
    In the Uk we still have Liberal and Lib Dem but I think the SDP has now sunk without trace.
    I don’t think the Continuity Liberal Party is a member of ALDE though. However, the Alliance Party of NI may be.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
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    Good Labour uncut article (I believe Mr Meeks posted on previous thread) - but this bit is wrong:

    The term “gaslighting” comes from the old movie “Gaslight” (precursor to “The Girl On The Train”), where a psychopathic husband gradually turns down the lights in his house so his wife can barely see, trying to drive her slowly mad by behaving as if nothing is happening. Getting to her to accept an alternative reality by constantly pushing at her boundaries.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2018/11/01/the-tragi-comic-end-of-wreathgate-is-a-timely-reminder-of-how-far-british-politics-has-fallen/#more-22045

    The dimming gas lights were because the husband was searching the closed off upper floors of the house for jewels his previous murder & robbery had failed to find - but he does try to drive his wife mad so her comments are disbelieved - and the British original is much superior to the MGM remake.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,986
    edited November 2018

    stodge said:

    Afternoon again all :)

    Keeping up with polls in foreign places:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1058018459475419136
    Off to Slovenia we go...

    As we know, SDS are the main opposition party to the five-party coalition currently in charge. The only problem they have is there was an election earlier this year so they may have to wait a while.

    They appear to have 4 lots of LibDems. What a frightening thought.
    In the Uk we still have Liberal and Lib Dem but I think the SDP has now sunk without trace.
    Not quite, although it’s down to residual flotsam levels. Wikipedia says 'party dissolved itself in 1990, but some activists met and voted to continue the party in defiance of its National Executive, leading to the creation of a new Social Democratic Party.

    The party is listed on the Register of Political Parties for England, Scotland and Wales. According to accounts filed with the Electoral Commission, for the year ending 2008 it had 41 members, and in 2015, the party had a total income of £769.50. As of 2017, it has no principal authority councillors and two elected town councillors.'
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    Nigelb said:

    I've just read this:

    "Piers Morgan, one of England’s greatest proponent of civil rights, democracy, rule of law and freedom of speech, ..."

    https://canadafreepress.com/

    Well, he does have one thing in common with Paine...
    Weeks after John F. Kennedy was gunned down by an assassin, the Emergency Civil Liberties Union presented Bob Dylan with the Tom Paine award,


    As I Went Out One Morning

    As I went out one morning
    To breathe the air around Tom Paine's
    I spied the fairest damsel
    That ever did walk in chains
    I offer'd her my hand
    She took me by the arm
    I knew that very instant
    She meant to do me harm

    Depart from me this moment
    I told her with my voice
    Said she, but I don't wish to
    Said I, But you have no choice
    I beg you, sir, she pleaded
    From the corners of her mouth
    I will secretly accept you
    And together we'll fly south

    Just then Tom Paine, himself
    Came running from across the field
    Shouting at this lovely girl
    And commanding her to yield
    And as she was letting go her grip
    Up Tom Paine did run
    I'm sorry, sir, he said to me
    I'm sorry for what she's done

    Songwriter: Bob Dylan

    John Wesley Hardin is his most underrated work imho. I think probably cos a series of gentle tunes at the height of 1968 revolution and psychedelia was so counter the prevailing narrative. But there are some lovely songs on there.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,612
    Pulpstar said:

    ... and do you all remember the fuss over this one!

    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02857/Grant_Shapps_BINGO_2857434b.jpg

    so much faux outrage, so few hours in the day.

    yeah.

    I can confirm (As it interrupts gigs) bingo is still alive and well in WMCs up here.
    And every week, when the caller says something like "three and five", one clever bugger shouts out "eight!".
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,987
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't expect any prosecutions, if any, for five years.

    Ten years after the financial crisis we are still waiting for meaningful prosecution of major figures in the banking and financial sector - and they cost the nation hundreds of billions. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan et all were big backers of remain.
    The figures that cost the British taxpayer billions of pounds mostly worked for UK retail banks - RBS, Northern Rock, Bradford & Bingley and the like.
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    Totally off topic - thoroughly enjoyed Bad times at the El Royale - great acting al round and a show-stealing performance from a London actress as the down at luck black singer. As EW put it - a great 'B' movie with an "A-list" cast.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629

    Arron Banks's spectacular whataboutery involving George Soros shows (a) that he is a deeply odious berk and (b) that he is concerned this is going somewhere so he is laying an irrelevant and false trail.

    @alastairmeeks. Before I forget, your article yesterday was really good. I didn’t do as well as you on the quiz!

    Never say never but I would be surprised if had done anything wrong. The answer is a the guy is deeply odious - he lives very near me and has a large number of charity gromit (Wallace and gromit) statues outside the front of his house. It is a narrow country road so you can’t stop to look at them or anything - I can’t stand those who parade their charitable giving.
    That's very kind of you to say so - I always enjoy writing the articles most when I learn a lot myself. I did when putting that one together.
    Yes, I think it is a subject worth revisiting. When the main industry of a town disappears, followed by retail closing down, the ties that bind a community become tenuous. Money and people leach away to better prospects elsewhere.

    The Preston solution of localism is an interesting response.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1057996361583476736?s=19
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,282
    MikeL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. L, what's happened?

    The budget sought to delay the already announced restriction for another year. Crouch threatened to resign over it. May is now apparently climbing down because she would lose the vote. So we have gone from bravely facing down the gambling industry to being pathetic to being even more pathetic when called it. As I said, genius!
    In an otherwise good budget how could the treasury not see how bad delaying this measure to help bookies would look.

    Not in touch seems to ring a bell
    Not sure it’s a good budget. It seems to have abandoned the need to eliminate the deficit, if sees us adding to our humongous debt mountain, it basically assumes that we will have a stable period of growth for another 5 years when we have already had 8 in this cycle, it seriously risks us going into the next downturn still in deficit and it contained far too many gimmicks.
    Not sure that's fair - debt as % of GDP falls pretty significantly over the next few years.

    And a deficit of just 1% of GDP is very low by historical standards.

    Given the huge and unavoidable demands on the NHS given the ageing population I think the above is more than a reasonable result.
    I think some institute said it was a gamble which struck me as about right. We might get away with it, I hope so, but it is a serious mistake to think that the OBR can only be out £20bn a year in overstating the deficit. It can go the other way too and will if there is a significant slow down. If things go pear shaped in the next few years we will not be starting in a good place.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    rpjs said:
    What could possibly connect the Putin loving Populists Trump, Banks and Farage?
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    NEW THREAD
This discussion has been closed.