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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited November 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reviews the next Labour leader betting

 

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,326
    First! Thanks, Alastair!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,502
    edited November 4
    Recovered from the black hole of Vanilla that invariably swallows my first posts is the pithy observation that:

    Lesley Laird's price is higher than her majority of 259. She is the Amber Rudd of SLAB.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,345
    edited November 4
    'There is much to be said for laying Emily Thornberry at 7 or so'.

    Did I read that right? That's no way to talk about a Lady.

    In even more shocking news the latest poll out in Florida has the Republican Rick Scott ahead in the Senate race - its by StPetes Polls who are a division of Fextel apparently.

    http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenAg_November02_S8UG.pdf

    Much drama to come overnight on Tuesday!

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329
    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,326
    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
  • At some point Labour will be forced to elect a female leader ( unless it trumps gender with another diversity during that election ) I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader. Given that Cable may very well go before Corbyn and 3 of the prime contenders to suceed him are female Labour may well be the last party to have a female leader. It will be a factor.

    We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.

    The dynamic at the moment points to the most europhile female that Corbynistas can tolerate. Or Clive Lewis. Given the revolutionary air at the moment I would expect more backbenchers/junior figures to contest the election on the Corbyn model. That also has the advantage of folk not having been tied to front bench contortions during the WA ratification process.

    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    To oversimplify slightly who is Labour's Jacinda Adern ? Who haven't we currently heard of that will look fresh, new, authentic, green and europhile in a few years time ?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,502
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
    It is unlikely all the Labour women are crap, though it is highly likely political opponents will label them as such; even the parties led by Theresa May or Vince Cable.

    If Dura_Ace is right that the next leader will be female, then we can lay all the male candidates. We can combine this with Alastair Meeks' header, and lay all of the men under a certain price. Even if a man does become leader, then limited harm is done to our account balance because all the other men we have laid will have failed to become leader, so we may well have won more on them than we lost on the eventual winner. It is also possible that natural fluctuation will have meant we can hedge as the final stage approaches.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
    Yes, but Cooper isn't crap. Don't underestimate the Balls factor. He's gone from red faced and sweaty arsehole MP to the nation's favourite light entertainment step dad. He will be a big plus in a leadership campaign and a GE.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,111
    An interesting if rather laboured lead (pun intended).

    Success does rest on not shorting the favourite when the clock stops.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,111
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
    If only being crap were indeed an obstacle to senior political office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,111
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
    Yes, but Cooper isn't crap. Don't underestimate the Balls factor. He's gone from red faced and sweaty arsehole MP to the nation's favourite light entertainment step dad. He will be a big plus in a leadership campaign and a GE.
    She is capable, certainly. Just a shame she is so boring and devoid of original thought. If we want that we can stick with Mrs M.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,502
    edited November 4
    IanB2 said:

    An interesting if rather laboured lead (pun intended).

    Success does rest on not shorting the favourite when the clock stops.

    That is not quite right. Laying the favourite may well involve laying the winner, but this should be offset by the gains made on laying all the former favourites who lost. The trick is not to have laid only the winner.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,444
    ydoethur said:

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
    But no money was paid out on them, and that's what really matters on this site.

    As for Yvette Cooper, who remembers HIPs?
  • ydoethur said:

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
    You are quite right. Which is why Bets always have caveats in them to cover that point. But you are quite right.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,502
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
    But no money was paid out on them, and that's what really matters on this site.

    As for Yvette Cooper, who remembers HIPs?
    Almost no voters will remember HIPS and even fewer will have been directly affected. Those who do will need to weigh any damage caused by HIPS against any damage caused by opponents' policies, such as Brexit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,444

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
    But no money was paid out on them, and that's what really matters on this site.

    As for Yvette Cooper, who remembers HIPs?
    Almost no voters will remember HIPS and even fewer will have been directly affected. Those who do will need to weigh any damage caused by HIPS against any damage caused by opponents' policies, such as Brexit.
    I'm sure I only remember HIPs because my parents were affected. My point wasn't that that would damage her, just that she brought them in and they were a complete waste of money (typical New Labour).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 4

    ydoethur said:

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
    You are quite right. Which is why Bets always have caveats in them to cover that point. But you are quite right.
    It's interesting and slightly odd that unlike the Liberal Democrats Labour have no concept of an 'acting' leader. But they don't. If the leader dies, the deputy leader becomes leader. Then, at the next party conference, a leadership election may be held. In practice of course they call a special conference to resolve this point.

    I suspect it stems from the slightly different ways these concepts arose - Labour originally had no 'leader.' Instead until 1922 they elected a chairman and deputy chairman for a one-year term, then turfed them out and picked someone else. You still have a remnant of this in the concept of notional annual elections (which the Tories mimicked from 1965 to 1997). So the deputy leader is finishing off that term and there's no point in bringing forward the election.

    Whereas the Liberals first brought in the concept of acting leader over Jeremy Thorpe's, ummm, problems. Jo Grimond served as leader at the request of the other MPs, but it was understood to be a temporary arrangement so he was called 'acting leader.'

    It's interesting as well that there is no concept at all of acting leader or deputy leader in the Conservative party, and even a defenestrated leader (IDS, Heath) has to continue in office until a replacement is elected. Heath got round that by nominating Robert Carr as temporary leader but I sometimes wonder what would happen if the leader died (which hasn't happened since 1881 despite some near squeaks in 1902, 1923 and 1940).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,358
    edited November 4
    brendan16 said:

    'There is much to be said for laying Emily Thornberry at 7 or so'.

    Did I read that right? That's no way to talk about a Lady.

    Emily Thornberry (Islington South and Finsbury) (Lab)
    ...... I have never been a lady, and it will take a great deal more than being married to a knight of the realm to make me one.

    http://bit.ly/2D0P5kP
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,474
    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her. Cooper is out because she is also smart and, unforgiveably, sat in the last Labour cabinet. Thornberry is a bit too transparent in her ambition for many on the left: they think, rightly, that her support for Jeremy is tactical rather than convinced. From time to time, she also says mildly positive things about Israel. I have a horrible feeling that when the day eventually arrives, it will be Laura Pidcock who gets the job.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 4

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her. Cooper is out because she is also smart and, unforgiveably, sat in the last Labour cabinet. Thornberry is a bit too transparent in her ambition for many on the left: they think, rightly, that her support for Jeremy is tactical rather than convinced. From time to time, she also says mildly positive things about Israel. I have a horrible feeling that when the day eventually arrives, it will be Laura Pidcock who gets the job.

    Dear heaven.

    If that happens we really will know that Labour have a collective death wish.

    Edit - perhaps Cat Smith? She's not bright or personable but she is very left wing and not so transparently misogynistic as Pidcock.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,455



    We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.

    Grief stricken remainer is pretty much me. In terms of joining a party to influence things my thought process is to join the Conservatives. Labour is already well on the way to coming out for rejoin. But they are still not a shoe in for the next government. The Tory party could well win the next few elections. It also has most of the Europhobe MPs that I want to see the back of.

    I am probably not going to act on this. I have other things to do. But I think it's the Tories that will be the Europhile target.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167

    At some point Labour will be forced to elect a female leader ( unless it trumps gender with another diversity during that election ) I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader. Given that Cable may very well go before Corbyn and 3 of the prime contenders to suceed him are female Labour may well be the last party to have a female leader. It will be a factor.

    We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.

    The dynamic at the moment points to the most europhile female that Corbynistas can tolerate. Or Clive Lewis. Given the revolutionary air at the moment I would expect more backbenchers/junior figures to contest the election on the Corbyn model. That also has the advantage of folk not having been tied to front bench contortions during the WA ratification process.

    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    To oversimplify slightly who is Labour's Jacinda Adern ? Who haven't we currently heard of that will look fresh, new, authentic, green and europhile in a few years time ?

    Jess Phillips. She has the backing of the sisterhood too. Sure, she has annoyed the Corbynistas, but the circumstances of a contest tend to take place in a time when the old regime is discredited. Stella Creasy has done great stuff too. Jess ticks other boxes too: class, regional background, profile, ambition. Sure, she has a marmite effect on people, but I think she is great.

    I wouldn't say a female is nailed on, but merely likely. Other factors will come into play. The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,863
    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Foxy said:

    At some point Labour will be forced to elect a female leader ( unless it trumps gender with another diversity during that election ) I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader. Given that Cable may very well go before Corbyn and 3 of the prime contenders to suceed him are female Labour may well be the last party to have a female leader. It will be a factor.

    We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.

    The dynamic at the moment points to the most europhile female that Corbynistas can tolerate. Or Clive Lewis. Given the revolutionary air at the moment I would expect more backbenchers/junior figures to contest the election on the Corbyn model. That also has the advantage of folk not having been tied to front bench contortions during the WA ratification process.

    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    To oversimplify slightly who is Labour's Jacinda Adern ? Who haven't we currently heard of that will look fresh, new, authentic, green and europhile in a few years time ?

    Jess Phillips. She has the backing of the sisterhood too. Sure, she has annoyed the Corbynistas, but the circumstances of a contest tend to take place in a time when the old regime is discredited. Stella Creasy has done great stuff too. Jess ticks other boxes too: class, regional background, profile, ambition. Sure, she has a marmite effect on people, but I think she is great.

    I wouldn't say a female is nailed on, but merely likely. Other factors will come into play. The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.
    Theresa May wasn't elected because she was a woman, but because she was clearly the best candidate, which admittedly says rather a lot about her rivals.

    That is what Labour needs. To be able to say clearly and without fear of contradiction that their leader was elected because they were the best candidate.

    The snag is that while that holds good for Beckett and Abbott who were clearly inferior to Blair and the Miliband/Balls slate, it's hard to make a case that Yvette Cooper was a worse candidate than Burnham or Corbyn - yet she still came third behind both.

    That is where allegations of sexism gain credence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,863
    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
    Yes, but Cooper isn't crap. Don't underestimate the Balls factor. He's gone from red faced and sweaty arsehole MP to the nation's favourite light entertainment step dad. He will be a big plus in a leadership campaign and a GE.
    I'm on Balls at 100/1.

    He was still red faced and very sweaty on strictly, though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,620

    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.

    It’s an optical illusion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 11,111
    After a charismatic PM voters yearn for someone solid and dependable, and then the next time after someone with a bit of flair about them, and so on.

    The challenge for Labour is whether to pick someone with character to sweep away Mrs M, or someone reliable to get rid of whatever lunatic the Tories might meanwhile have put in her place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.

    Really? I would have said she was about average height.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,863
    Foxy said:

    At some point Labour will be forced to elect a female leader ( unless it trumps gender with another diversity during that election ) I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader. Given that Cable may very well go before Corbyn and 3 of the prime contenders to suceed him are female Labour may well be the last party to have a female leader. It will be a factor.

    We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.

    The dynamic at the moment points to the most europhile female that Corbynistas can tolerate. Or Clive Lewis. Given the revolutionary air at the moment I would expect more backbenchers/junior figures to contest the election on the Corbyn model. That also has the advantage of folk not having been tied to front bench contortions during the WA ratification process.

    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    To oversimplify slightly who is Labour's Jacinda Adern ? Who haven't we currently heard of that will look fresh, new, authentic, green and europhile in a few years time ?

    Jess Phillips. She has the backing of the sisterhood too. Sure, she has annoyed the Corbynistas, but the circumstances of a contest tend to take place in a time when the old regime is discredited. Stella Creasy has done great stuff too. Jess ticks other boxes too: class, regional background, profile, ambition. Sure, she has a marmite effect on people, but I think she is great.

    I wouldn't say a female is nailed on, but merely likely. Other factors will come into play. The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.



    Labour is the sexist party.

    I wouldn't put all my eggs into one basket that the next leader must be a woman, just because it would be extremely embarrassing for it not to be.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 25,863
    ydoethur said:

    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.

    Really? I would have said she was about average height.
    I couldn't resist laying her at that price.

    Please don't read any double entendres into that one too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 4

    ydoethur said:

    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.

    Really? I would have said she was about average height.
    I couldn't resist laying her at that price.

    Please don't read any double entendres into that one too.
    That's not as bad as your comment about being on Balls, which really was TMI over breakfast...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Incidentally if anyone wants a heartwarming story about how nice people can be, take a look at this one about housing in Sussex:

    Home tweet home: A heartwarming story that turned out to be true
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-46073249
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,004
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Ace, a sound point on Balls.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,797
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader.

    *pedant hat ON*

    Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).

    *pedant hat OFF*
    But no money was paid out on them, and that's what really matters on this site.

    As for Yvette Cooper, who remembers HIPs?
    As for Yvette Cooper, who remembers that she ran in the 2015 leadership election, and finished third? So far, no female candidate has ever beaten a man in a Labour leadership election.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,797
    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 4

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329
    Foxy said:

    The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.

    Well they are still ahead of Jezza in the polls and Brexit is going fucking mega. There is going to be "adequate food" apparently.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,847
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.

    Well they are still ahead of Jezza in the polls and Brexit is going fucking mega. There is going to be "adequate food" apparently.
    All the stuff about starving brits and no medicine was bullshit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,847
    ydoethur said:

    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.

    Really? I would have said she was about average height.
    and probably average width..
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,068
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 4
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.

    Well they are still ahead of Jezza in the polls and Brexit is going fucking mega. There is going to be "adequate food" apparently.
    In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Tories have announced that baby-eating will become compulsory for all people.

    'Babies are a reliable source of protein and extremely tender eaten in the right way,' said a fireplace salesman turned Cabinet Minister. 'I've been eating them now for 20 years and I can honestly say there's nothing to beat it.'

    However, he rejected notions that this was a last desperate plot to ensure there are no food shortages. 'Look, I'm a good Tory. I don't give a flying fuck if the plebs starve. Indeed, it would solve the national obesity crisis and relieve pressure on the NHS and the pensions system if people just stopped eating. This is about getting rid of all that holier than thou shit from the Labour Party, Greens, Corbynistas and other scum.'

    Jeremy Corbyn couldn't be reached for comment. When asked if he had ever eaten babies his spokesman said off the record that he was possibly there, but he wasn't involved.

    Vince Cable said, 'What's a baby? Is it something to do with banks?'

    (With apologies to the Daily Mash.)
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,068
    ydoethur said:

    Thanks Alastair.

    I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.

    Really? I would have said she was about average height.
    It's her girth which 'shortens her'.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,425
    Corbyn is leader. Corbyn is leader. There are no other leaders. Corbyn is leader.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,068
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167
    edited November 4
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    At some point Labour will be forced to elect a female leader ( unless it trumps gender with another diversity during that election ) I believe only Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the current HoC have never had a female leader. Given that Cable may very well go before Corbyn and 3 of the prime contenders to suceed him are female Labour may well be the last party to have a female leader. It will be a factor.

    We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.

    The dynamic at the moment points to the most europhile female that Corbynistas can tolerate. Or Clive Lewis. Given the revolutionary air at the moment I would expect more backbenchers/junior figures to contest the election on the Corbyn model. That also has the advantage of folk not having been tied to front bench contortions during the WA ratification process.

    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    To oversimplify slightly who is Labour's Jacinda Adern ? Who haven't we currently heard of that will look fresh, new, authentic, green and europhile in a few years time ?

    Jess Phillips. She has the backing of the sisterhood too. Sure, she has annoyed the Corbynistas, but the circumstances of a contest tend to take place in a time when the old regime is discredited. Stella Creasy has done great stuff too. Jess ticks other boxes too: class, regional background, profile, ambition. Sure, she has a marmite effect on people, but I think she is great.

    I wouldn't say a female is nailed on, but merely likely. Other factors will come into play. The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.
    Theresa May wasn't elected because she was a woman, but because she was clearly the best candidate, which admittedly says rather a lot about her rivals.

    .
    Certainly the Tories fielded a pisspoor set of alternatives to May! but there was an expressed desire for a Maggie part 2. Forgetting of course why the Tories defenestrated Maggie.

    The reason Yvette did poorly in that campaign, and Burnham only a little better was nothing to do with sexism. I don't recall any sexist comments at all in that campaign. The fatal flaw was being continuity New Labour when the party wanted to change.

    There is certainly potential for a new shift in direction, but it will be a new generation, as indeed it was under Blair, whose first cabinet contained only one person who was in a previous Labour government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
    It dogged their footsteps forever...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,004
    Could be wrong, but didn't the Commons vote against the UK Remaining in a custom union?

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,022
    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    I believe Cooper doesn’t want the job.

    You don’t go on holiday while the campaign is rolling if you want the job.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
    It dogged their footsteps forever...
    Thorpe was hounded into quitting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    I believe Cooper doesn’t want the job.

    You don’t go on holiday while the campaign is rolling if you want the job.
    Is that an oblique reference to Corbyn in the referendum campaign?

    (I'm told that claim's an urban myth, he was just campaigning somewhere a long way off and quite pretty. Is that true?)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
    It dogged their footsteps forever...
    Thorpe was hounded into quitting.
    Well, you couldn't expect him to get off Scott-free (unless you were the judge, of course).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,004
    Mr. Cwsc, one might make that case, but the situation may have changed.

    Her ME may be the bigger problem, though. The Wiki entry suggests she had it (chronic fatigue syndrome, same thing, different name) for just one year. So maybe it wouldn't be a problem. Question mark, though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,425
    There have been 28 Tory prime ministers and 6 Labour prime ministers. The Tories elected a woman on the 25th and 28th go. If Labour get to double figures, which they may not, I suspect they will have caught up.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,022
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    I believe Cooper doesn’t want the job.

    You don’t go on holiday while the campaign is rolling if you want the job.
    Is that an oblique reference to Corbyn in the referendum campaign?

    (I'm told that claim's an urban myth, he was just campaigning somewhere a long way off and quite pretty. Is that true?)
    It does also apply to that situation as well !

    I expect during the Euro referendum Corby was campaigning on returning the South Wales coalfields to full employment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,620

    Could be wrong, but didn't the Commons vote against the UK Remaining in a custom union?

    It voted against asking the government to make it a negotiating objective. That doesn’t prevent the government from making it a negotiating objective anyway.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,847
    edited November 4
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
    It dogged their footsteps forever...
    Thorpe was hounded into quitting.
    Well, you couldn't expect him to get off Scott-free (unless you were the judge, of course).
    Thorpe didn't winalot of elections... was his pedigree sufficient, was his chum responsible>?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
    It dogged their footsteps forever...
    Thorpe was hounded into quitting.
    Well, you couldn't expect him to get off Scott-free (unless you were the judge, of course).
    Thorpe didn't winalot of elections... was his pedigree sufficient, was his chum responsible>?
    Politics waits for Norman?
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,070
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is leader. Corbyn is leader. There are no other leaders. Corbyn is leader.

    He’s a the top of the tree but will always be a follower, not a leader.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,455

    Could be wrong, but didn't the Commons vote against the UK Remaining in a custom union?

    It voted against asking the government to make it a negotiating objective. That doesn’t prevent the government from making it a negotiating objective anyway.
    Beats me why it was ever controversial. It is so clearly in the UK's interest to stay in the Customs Union it should have been our number one objective all along.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,514

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her. Cooper is out because she is also smart and, unforgiveably, sat in the last Labour cabinet. Thornberry is a bit too transparent in her ambition for many on the left: they think, rightly, that her support for Jeremy is tactical rather than convinced. From time to time, she also says mildly positive things about Israel. I have a horrible feeling that when the day eventually arrives, it will be Laura Pidcock who gets the job.

    Agree, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper would both be excellent choices.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,070
    AndyJS said:

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her. Cooper is out because she is also smart and, unforgiveably, sat in the last Labour cabinet. Thornberry is a bit too transparent in her ambition for many on the left: they think, rightly, that her support for Jeremy is tactical rather than convinced. From time to time, she also says mildly positive things about Israel. I have a horrible feeling that when the day eventually arrives, it will be Laura Pidcock who gets the job.

    Agree, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper would both be excellent choices.
    Cooper’s USP has to be managerialism (because it sure as hell isnt charisma) but true world is spinning again this and in any event is her managerialism much good? Nandy is a black hole.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,993

    Cooper is out because she is also smart and, unforgiveably, sat in the last Labour cabinet.

    I admit I have lost track, but I thought Corbyn had been through a couple of cabinets since then?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Jonathan said:

    There have been 28 Tory prime ministers and 6 Labour prime ministers. The Tories elected a woman on the 25th and 28th go. If Labour get to double figures, which they may not, I suspect they will have caught up.

    Think of it in terms of leaders rather than PMs. The Tories since they created the title of 'Leader of the Unionists' in 1922 have had 15 leaders, and the eighth and fifteenth have both been women.

    Labour established the office of leader of the party at the same time, ironically, and have had 23 leaders of whom the twelfth and fifteenth/seventeenth have been women, but only in a temporary role.

    That does suggest they are lagging somewhat. It is doubly peculiar given they have, without checking, had far more female MPs and ministers than the Tories.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,425
    matt said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is leader. Corbyn is leader. There are no other leaders. Corbyn is leader.

    He’s a the top of the tree but will always be a follower, not a leader.
    Corbyn is leader for life, possibly beyond. There were no leaders before him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292
    edited November 4
    The US midterms continue to throw up some interesting races:
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/03/kara-eastman-nebraska-democrats-2018-elections-222185
    I later learn she was in a band at the time, the name of which – Pieces of Fuck – suggests she didn’t foresee a future in elected politics....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,526

    Could be wrong, but didn't the Commons vote against the UK Remaining in a custom union?

    It voted against asking the government to make it a negotiating objective. That doesn’t prevent the government from making it a negotiating objective anyway.
    Beats me why it was ever controversial. It is so clearly in the UK's interest to stay in the Customs Union it should have been our number one objective all along.
    Number two; full membership should have been number one.

    And Good Morning, everyone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,004
    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    You mean he spins furiously at both ends to keep everything where it started a long time ago?
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,068
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Labour talks about needing a female leader up until the point where campaigning becomes serious, and then it elects a man. Granted, it is presumably a little embarrassing for a party which (rather against the evidence these days) prides itself on its record on equality to have never had an elected female leader, nearly half a century after the Tories first did so, but come the crunch it's a nice-to-have which can easily be (and invariably is) trumped by some higher consideration.
    That's still less awful than their record on ethnic minorities though - Tories a leader from an EM in 1868, the Liberals in 1931, Labour in 2010.

    If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!

    Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
    Yup the Liberals rather 'shot their bolt' with that one.
    It dogged their footsteps forever...
    Time to bite the bullet now?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    That some sort of socialist dad dance ?

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,993
    edited November 4


    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    I think this is driven significantly by the need to 'Green' organisations to justify their continued existence, and by a media need for apocalyptic headlines. Think about it - eg if Greenpeace were to accept that the world is rapidly 'greening' (which it is - especially in Europe and in Europe especially in the UK), then no need for Greenpeace.

    Looking at the numbers, the UK is well ahead of our targets for eg GHG reduction.

    Ony two sectors of the economy have done noticeably poorly in reductions - transport and housing. The only real caveat here is exported emissions from eg outsourcing.



    There is an interesting discussion thread. The numbers in the graph are sourced from the 2017 Govt stats.

    Transport will be heavily influenced by Electrics. Housing requires Owner Occupiers in old stock to get off their bottoms. I think we need a significant rise in energy prices, which would happen a few years were it all to be nationalised again.

    The best performing largish country GHG reduction programmes in Europe are the UK and the Netherlands.
  • Nigelb said:

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    That some sort of socialist dad dance ?

    All I can think about is the top definition of ‘helicopter’ on Urban Dictionary.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=helicopter
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,004
    Mr. D/Mr. Doethur, it's a reference to the revisionism in 1984. It's claimed Big Brother invented the helicopter.

    We've always been at war with Eastasia, incidentally.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,770

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her.

    Foolish to write her off. Lisa Nandy was the preferred choice of Owen Jones quite recently. His endorsement will carry a lot of weight with the membership.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292
    MattW said:


    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    I think this is driven significantly by the need to 'Green' organisations to justify their continued existence, and by a media need for apocalyptic headlines. Think about it - eg if Greenpeace were to accept that the world is rapidly 'greening' (which it is - especially in Europe and in Europe especially in the UK), then no need for Greenpeace.

    Looking at the numbers, the UK is well ahead of our targets for eg GHG reduction.

    Ony two sectors of the economy have done noticeably poorly in reductions - transport and housing. The only real caveat here is exported emissions from eg outsourcing...

    Transport will be heavily influenced by Electrics. Housing requires Owner Occupiers in old stock to get off their bottoms. I think we need a significant rise in energy prices, which would happen a few years were it all to be nationalised again...
    Some of us were under the impression that we are already experiencing a significant rise in energy prices (electricity prices are up about 30% over the last year).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    That some sort of socialist dad dance ?

    All I can think about is the top definition of ‘helicopter’ on Urban Dictionary.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=helicopter
    A novel approach to PM Questions.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,466
    rkrkrk said:

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her.

    Foolish to write her off. Lisa Nandy was the preferred choice of Owen Jones quite recently. His endorsement will carry a lot of weight with the membership.
    I would write her off.

    Emily,Angela and Rebecca are all ahead of her.
  • Arron Banks, the embattled Brexit donor, faces a second inquiry into his affairs after the financial watchdog contacted him last week asking him to disclose his bank statements.

    In a surprise move from the man who bankrolled the leave campaign, Banks said he would vote remain if he was given another chance because politicians are “not up to the job”.

    He said: “I think if I had my time again, I would vote for remain based on the fact that our politicians are just not up for the job. We have ended up in the situation where the Tories have completely caved Brexit.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/sexting-minister-andrew-griffiths-i-was-having-breakdown-gvv7v3xgn
  • Trouble in paradise.

    Seb Corbyn, the son of the Labour leader, has been dragged into a bitter power struggle between the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, and his father’s office, which erupted last week in acrimony over Labour’s response to the budget.

    Sources say Jeremy Corbyn is hurt that his son’s role for McDonnell has been downgraded from chief of staff after an influx of hard-left advisers into the shadow chancellor’s team.

    McDonnell sparked anger among Corbyn’s team last week by stating publicly that Labour would not oppose the government’s plans to raise income tax thresholds in the budget.

    That line was contradicted by Corbyn’s spokesman and by tweets emanating from the Labour press office. Shadow cabinet members openly questioned why Labour was supporting a tax cut for those earning more than £50,000.

    The incident revealed tensions between McDonnell, who is determined to do what it takes to win the next election, and some around Corbyn, who have prioritised ideological purity.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/seb-corbyn-demoted-as-dad-feuds-with-john-mcdonnell-7nldkwz50

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,656
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    The next Labour leader absolutely has to be a woman so you can forget Starmer, McDonnell, Ummunnumunu and Lewis. Yvette Cooper looks like value and we'd have Ed Balls as "First Gentleman".

    Absolutely has to? Even if they are crap?
    It's Labour , so no difference having crap with a skirt as crap with trousers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,243
    rkrkrk said:

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her.

    Foolish to write her off. Lisa Nandy was the preferred choice of Owen Jones quite recently. His endorsement will carry a lot of weight with the membership.
    You know the Labour Party is seriously screwed when Owen Jones' views carry any more weight than a proton.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    That some sort of socialist dad dance ?

    All I can think about is the top definition of ‘helicopter’ on Urban Dictionary.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=helicopter
    A novel approach to PM Questions.
    I would have thought cock-waving would have fitted right in, actually.
  • Tom Watson. As discussed the deputy leader becomes leader upon the resignation of the leader
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,656
    AndyJS said:

    Lisa Nandy would be the best choice, by far. That means you can forget about her. Cooper is out because she is also smart and, unforgiveably, sat in the last Labour cabinet. Thornberry is a bit too transparent in her ambition for many on the left: they think, rightly, that her support for Jeremy is tactical rather than convinced. From time to time, she also says mildly positive things about Israel. I have a horrible feeling that when the day eventually arrives, it will be Laura Pidcock who gets the job.

    Agree, Lisa Nandy and Yvette Cooper would both be excellent choices.
    Both useless no hopers, what a state this country is in when people suggest this is the top talent to run the country. We really are well and truly f****d.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    That some sort of socialist dad dance ?

    All I can think about is the top definition of ‘helicopter’ on Urban Dictionary.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=helicopter
    A novel approach to PM Questions.
    I would have thought cock-waving would have fitted right in, actually.
    I was, of course, referring to the helicopter noises, which would at least make a change from the monotonous drone.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Jonathan, he invented the helicopter, you know.

    That some sort of socialist dad dance ?

    All I can think about is the top definition of ‘helicopter’ on Urban Dictionary.

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=helicopter
    A novel approach to PM Questions.
    I would have thought cock-waving would have fitted right in, actually.
    I was, of course, referring to the helicopter noises, which would at least make a change from the monotonous drone.

    Well, it would be different, but it would be more intelligent than much of the heckling that goes on at present.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,444
    Former cabinet secretary Jeremy Heywood has died.
  • tlg86 said:

    Former cabinet secretary Jeremy Heywood has died.

    Blimey, I knew he was ill but didn't realise it was that serious.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,993
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:


    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    I think this is driven significantly by the need to 'Green' organisations to justify their continued existence, and by a media need for apocalyptic headlines. Think about it - eg if Greenpeace were to accept that the world is rapidly 'greening' (which it is - especially in Europe and in Europe especially in the UK), then no need for Greenpeace.

    Looking at the numbers, the UK is well ahead of our targets for eg GHG reduction.

    Ony two sectors of the economy have done noticeably poorly in reductions - transport and housing. The only real caveat here is exported emissions from eg outsourcing...

    Transport will be heavily influenced by Electrics. Housing requires Owner Occupiers in old stock to get off their bottoms. I think we need a significant rise in energy prices, which would happen a few years were it all to be nationalised again...
    Some of us were under the impression that we are already experiencing a significant rise in energy prices (electricity prices are up about 30% over the last year).
    I think your impression may be an outlier(?)

    According to the latest official stats Q2 2017 to Q2 2018 was +3.4% for domestic energy, and electricity was about +5%.


    • The price paid for all domestic fuels in real terms has risen by 3.4 per cent in the year to
    Q2 2018. Between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018, real terms prices including VAT for domestic
    electricity increased by 4.8 per cent and domestic gas prices rose slightly by 0.3 per cent.
    • The average standard electricity bill in 2017, across all payment types has increased by
    £33 (5.7 per cent) since 2017, from £586 to £619. However, the average 2017 gas bill
    across all payment types has decreased by £20 (3.1 per cent), from £650 to £630. These
    bills are based on standard consumptions of 3,800kWh per year for electricity and
    15,000kWh per year for gas.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/743709/QEP_Q2_2018.pdf
  • BudGBudG Posts: 616

    Tom Watson. As discussed the deputy leader becomes leader upon the resignation of the leader

    Indeed he does. But for the purposes of the Betfair market, he would not be paid out as the winner, as it is settled on the results of the next leader chosen in a leadership contest. It is very hard to see the current lefty membership voting for Watson.


    "This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Jeremy Corbyn, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 4
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:


    The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.

    I think this is driven significantly by the need to 'Green' organisations to justify their continued existence, and by a media need for apocalyptic headlines. Think about it - eg if Greenpeace were to accept that the world is rapidly 'greening' (which it is - especially in Europe and in Europe especially in the UK), then no need for Greenpeace.

    Looking at the numbers, the UK is well ahead of our targets for eg GHG reduction.

    Ony two sectors of the economy have done noticeably poorly in reductions - transport and housing. The only real caveat here is exported emissions from eg outsourcing...

    Transport will be heavily influenced by Electrics. Housing requires Owner Occupiers in old stock to get off their bottoms. I think we need a significant rise in energy prices, which would happen a few years were it all to be nationalised again...
    Some of us were under the impression that we are already experiencing a significant rise in energy prices (electricity prices are up about 30% over the last year).
    I think your impression may be an outlier(?)

    According to the latest official stats Q2 2017 to Q2 2018 was +3.4% for domestic energy, and electricity was about +5%.


    • The price paid for all domestic fuels in real terms has risen by 3.4 per cent in the year to
    Q2 2018. Between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018, real terms prices including VAT for domestic
    electricity increased by 4.8 per cent and domestic gas prices rose slightly by 0.3 per cent.
    • The average standard electricity bill in 2017, across all payment types has increased by
    £33 (5.7 per cent) since 2017, from £586 to £619. However, the average 2017 gas bill
    across all payment types has decreased by £20 (3.1 per cent), from £650 to £630. These
    bills are based on standard consumptions of 3,800kWh per year for electricity and
    15,000kWh per year for gas.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/743709/QEP_Q2_2018.pdf
    Mine have gone up nearer 40%, so I don't know why the overall rate of rise is so very low.

    Edit - in fact, I do know, they went up at the start of July so just missed the cutoff for that report.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,180
    I don't know the answer to Alastair's question any more than anyone else. But I do know the party well, and predicted Corbyn's win when a lot of people thought it unlikely. A few points to add to the mix:

    * The membership is around 40% firm left, 20% firm centrist and 40% "left but want to win". The NEC elections fairly represent the balance - Momentum won, but not by a huge margin, and the runner-up was not a centrist but Eddie Izzard. Someone charismatic who isn't a strong Corbynite but who isn't aggressively centrist would have a decent chance.

    * The membership is pro-EU but (as with Labour voters in general) it's not the driving factor for many. That's why people aren't defecting to the LibDems.

    * Most members still subscribe to the old "gender is irrelevant, select on best policies" idea. Other things being equal, they'll pick a woman, but it's never going to be decisive (if I felt like that I've have voted for Thatcher, as one strongly feminist colleague says).

    * Nobody is really trying for the favourite slot at the moment. The consensus is that the Corbyn experiment needs to play out, probably in 2022. If he wins, fine - nearly all members have made their peace with that idea, and the doubts that are still around are mostly the "hey, why aren't we 10% ahead?" type. If he loses, members will be up for a somewhat different approach, so long as it isn't someone who's been a trouble-maker. Jess Phillips, Stella Creasy, Sue Hayman (underrated IMO)? Maybe. But in 2022 I'd think Sadiq Khan would be hard to stop if he wanted it. He could get a safe London seat in a heartbeat. A winner, still very popular despite grumbles, backed by the left when elected but neither a Jeremy clone nor someone who undermines him.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,599
    Scott_P said:

    I thought it was rather insensitive of Sophy Ridge to tell her live on air. I’m increasingly concerned about the way we publicise bereavement and grief in this country.
This discussion has been closed.