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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might hap

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited November 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

The midterms are for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 36 out of 50 state Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors and is the successor to a similar article . The following figures were taken between 1am and 4am GMT November 6th 2018

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Comments

  • From the Guardian

    Exit polling: majority of voters considered Trump 'a factor'
    We have the first tranche of exit polling – simply asking questions of voters as they leave polling places – and the Associated Press reports that health care and immigration were high on voters’ minds.

    AP also reports: “a majority of voters considered President Donald Trump a factor in their votes.”

    A majority of voters overall say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Still, about two-thirds say economic conditions are good.

    With control of the Senate and the House of Representatives at stake, Trump encouraged voters to view the first nationwide election of his presidency as a referendum on his leadership.

    VoteCast debuted Tuesday, replacing the in-person exit poll as a source of detailed information about the American electorate.

    In all, the survey included interviews with more than 113,000 voters nationwide.

    A note about exit polling: this kind of information is notoriously prone to extrapolation that later turns out to be, how to put this, wrong. So don’t take it to the bank.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    That's a seriously mixed exit poll.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 854
    Total disapprove-approve from the exit poll:

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677
    Curse of the cloned new thread.

    Any good links to stream US channels?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,106
    PB election results night. Rubs hands with glee, even with small stakes this time round. Not much value for such an unpredictable one. My best position is a big blue wave.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284
    I do love the NY Times website - I wonder if the needle will wobble again? :p
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326
    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Curse of the cloned new thread.

    Any good links to stream US channels?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/cnn-how-to-watch-election-day/index.html
  • SeanT said:

    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.

    Thanks and wise words of wisdom
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.
  • MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,041
    RoyalBlue said:

    Curse of the cloned new thread.

    Any good links to stream US channels?

    https://streamfare.com/cnn.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,168
    Andrew said:

    Total disapprove-approve from the exit poll:

    Hmph, that doesn't seem too encouraging to me - surely anyone who approves of Trump will be voting Republican...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 6
    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    Foxy said:
    Immigration+Economy > Healthcare. Those are two Trump strengths vs his main weakness.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659

    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
    They must have an online stream somewhere.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,355

    SeanT said:

    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.

    Thanks and wise words of wisdom
    Best wishes to you and Mrs G and I really hope you get better soon. Take care of yourselves. We need you here!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
    They must have an online stream somewhere.
    Weirdly fox and cnn don’t follow the likes of sky and stream on YouTube / via their website 24/7...helpfully people normally unofficially do it for them on YouTube.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    Danny565 said:

    Andrew said:

    Total disapprove-approve from the exit poll:

    Hmph, that doesn't seem too encouraging to me - surely anyone who approves of Trump will be voting Republican...
    Yeah just needs 3 or 4 points from the disapproves to swing over and Trump holds the house.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844

    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
    It's on my TV xD
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    Sorry for repeat, but new thread curse. FPT.

    RE Rugby. The problem with RU is the ludicrous number of replacements allowed. Basically a half a new team comes on in the second half. That and the length of time to set scrums and line outs, Ditto treatment for injuries. Giving everyone a chance for a breather.
    All of these, as well as "enhanced" growth measures are leading to bigger players.
    Solutions.
    1 4 subs only. Once off you can't return. Exception for genuine blood bins.
    2 No breaks for injuries. Unless serious, play continues. If the play is stopped player must be subbed.
    3 Shot clock for line outs. 20 seconds to throw it in.
    4 Same for scrums. No resetting. Penalty or play on.

    All of these would lead to players with greater anaerobic fitness and smaller players.

    Re Haka. It was Howie Tamati of NZRL, in the 80's, and an actual, genuine Maori chief, who introduced it as a culturally meaningful ceremony, and therefore intimidatory, rather than part of the pre-match entertainment. It was part of his traditional duties and role out with the rugby field.
    Edit: he was a candidate for Maori Party at GE 2017, and has been an elected councillor.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 854
    Apparently there are three exit polls this time round......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 6
    Alistair said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    Foxy said:
    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565
    CNN preliminary exit polls looking grim for Trumpton.
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:
    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
    The Tories led on the economy in 1997, didn't stop them getting pounded like a dockside hooker at the general election.
  • If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.
  • Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.

    Thanks and wise words of wisdom
    Best wishes to you and Mrs G and I really hope you get better soon. Take care of yourselves. We need you here!
    You are so kind and we will pick up soon hopefully
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,064
    Hope Big G feels better soon. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    I can assure everyone that Fox News is reliably spinning for the GOP
  • timmotimmo Posts: 812
    Alistair said:
    Just remember the early betting moves in 2016 after exit polls..all toward Hilary.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,168

    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.

    What were Pelosi's ratings?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246

    Alistair said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    And I'm agreeing with you. They take so long getting to the important information that I just totally ignore them now as it is a waste of intellectual effort.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659

    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.

    A 55-44 unfavourables split for Trump is far from a disaster for the GOP. They need to swing around 4 points from column A, not an insurmountable challenge.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565

    Alistair said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    The first polls haven’t closed yet so presumably they are waiting for that.

    CNN is channel 607 for those with Virgin cable.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Hope Big G feels better soon. :)

    Thanks Gin

    And now is the time to call it a night

    Hope everyone has a great nights rest and a successful betting night

    Good night folks
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    Advert watch
    Trucks, drugs, crisps, care plan, banks.
  • Danny565 said:

    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.

    What were Pelosi's ratings?
    Something like favourable 31/unfavourable 55.

    GOP was something like favourable 44/unfavourable 55.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    That's a big swing to be fair
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 6
    Anazina said:

    Alistair said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    The first polls haven’t closed yet so presumably they are waiting for that.

    CNN is channel 607 for those with Virgin cable.
    They do this every time I have watched an election with them....in 3hrs they are still “breaking news”, exit poll says Cuban family guy fans in plantation, Florida Trump favourability rating are...
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326
    edited November 6
    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan
  • timmotimmo Posts: 812

    Anazina said:

    Alistair said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    The first polls haven’t closed yet so presumably they are waiting for that.

    CNN is channel 607 for those with Virgin cable.
    They do this every time I have watched an election with them....in 3hrs they are still “breaking news”, exit poll says Cuban family guy fans in plantation, Florida Trump favourability rating are...
    Watching CNN will send you asleep very quickly..

    What time does Brillo start his coverage?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 6
    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Go Long on Khan

    Nah he will be fine. London is labour city, His opponent is a lightweight and Khan is effective at campaigning.

    Khan isn’t a leader. He was the same as a minister, he gets bugger all done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,284
    Sending best wishes to Big_G and his wife.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,677

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:
    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
    The Tories led on the economy in 1997, didn't stop them getting pounded like a dockside hooker at the general election.
    What an unlovely expression.

    Thanks to you (and Bromptonaut) for the links :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Is there actually any us channel (tradition or online) that is any good. The likes of Young Turks is very popular and isn’t boring in the way CNN is, but they are incredibly beep beep beep.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:
    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
    The Tories led on the economy in 1997, didn't stop them getting pounded like a dockside hooker at the general election.
    What an unlovely expression.

    Thanks to you (and Bromptonaut) for the links :smile:
    I’m a blunt plain speaking Yorkshireman.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074
    Fpt best wishes to Mr and Mrs Big G.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Go Long on Khan

    Nah he will be fine. London is labour city, His opponent is a lightweight and Khan is effective at campaigning.
    Yes, I think Khan will win. The Tory opponent is not overly impressive.

    However I think he is doing his long-term prospects serious damage. Khan is not seriously liked. Or respected. And every murder undermines him further. He got away with blaming Tory police cuts for a while, it isn't working any more. He squirms on TV.

    Boris came back into the Commons with his reputation enhanced. As a Tory winner in a hostile city. Khan is not gonna do that. He will never lead the Labour party. Look elsewhere.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,587

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Go Long on Khan

    Nah he will be fine. London is labour city, His opponent is a lightweight and Khan is effective at campaigning.

    Khan isn’t a leader. He was the same as a minister, he gets bugger all done.
    I must admit Newsnight last night was the first time I'd heard Bailey speak. I recalled someone on here talking him up, so was surprised at how mediocre he seemed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol

    Gives an extra hour for Republicans to vote?
    Oh and get well soon Mr and Mrs G.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,122
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
    Mainly London only
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,074
    Shaun Bailey is super impressive not sure what you’re all talking about.

    That I am super green on him for London Mayor is beside the point. Or rather it emphasises it.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    Pulpstar said:

    That's a big swing to be fair
    Even worse for the GOP as the write-in candidate who got 22% to the GOP’s 26% was the loser of the Dem primary. Mind you the island territories are not at all indicative of the mainland.
  • The main topic of the CNN exit polling appears to be 'the bleeding obvious'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 6

    The main topic of the CNN exit polling appears to be 'the bleeding obvious'.

    Well it makes a change from 24/7 with every sentence starting with Trump.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473
    Good evening everyone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    Scott_P said:
    Shame - not necessarily the outcome itself, just that with so much written and read about all this I was hoping for a few 'Oh wow' moments, and that would have been one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,064
    AndyJS said:

    Good evening everyone.

    Evening Andy J. :D

    Ready for another election night on PB? :)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
    Londoners don't care. Khan may actually have a point when he says he is battling a nationwide phenomenon the trouble is he looks terrible when he says it, and then he says "it will take a generation to beat this". That's just shit politics. As that black mother made very plain.

    He's crap, he's got no new ideas, he's a nullity, and no good at his job. And he still has those iffy Islamist links.

    He will win again in London simply because London is, right now, so Labour (and Remainer) and only a Boris type Tory (super charismatic and interestingly politically incorrect) could win in these circs, and even then it would be difficult.

    My point - to bettors - is to forget him as a potential Blairite rival and replacement for Corbyn. They need a superior candidate than Khan to win over the kidz and the Trotz.




  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473
    edited November 6
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening everyone.

    Evening Andy J. :D

    Ready for another election night on PB? :)
    Can't wait for the numbers to start rolling in. I don't have a spreadsheet this time though.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Shame - not necessarily the outcome itself, just that with so much written and read about all this I was hoping for a few 'Oh wow' moments, and that would have been one.
    Yes, it would be the Portillo Moment of these elections.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 4,779
    edited November 6
    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many but, with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100. there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.

    Not sure Khan can be blamed tbh.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol



    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    edited November 6
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
    Londoners don't care. Khan may actually have a point when he says he is battling a nationwide phenomenon the trouble is he looks terrible when he says it, and then he says "it will take a generation to beat this". That's just shit politics. As that black mother made very plain.

    He's crap, he's got no new ideas, he's a nullity, and no good at his job. And he still has those iffy Islamist links.

    He will win again in London simply because London is, right now, so Labour (and Remainer) and only a Boris type Tory (super charismatic and interestingly politically incorrect) could win in these circs, and even then it would be difficult.

    My point - to bettors - is to forget him as a potential Blairite rival and replacement for Corbyn. They need a superior candidate than Khan to win over the kidz and the Trotz.

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,326
    edited November 6
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol



    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
    Nah. A good advocate doesn't have to like his client or his case to argue for it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    CNN's clock just hit 0:00 and.... absolubtely nothing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    edited November 6
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol



    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
    You assume that, but I'd bet party lawyers are probably not concerned in the slightest. Being part of a party machinery seems to remove a lot of people's concerns about anything other than party advantage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    Oh wait more shitty exit polls about the impact of owning dogs vs cats
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473
    edited November 6

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many but, with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100. there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.

    Not sure Khan can be blamed tbh.
    In 2003 there were just over 200 murders in London, but for some reason — I honestly don't know why — it didn't make much impact on the news at the time, and I was following the news pretty closely back then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London#Murder
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol



    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
    One imagines that anyone who’s been an attorney for the Republicans in recent years will be used to the feeling.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many, but( with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100) there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.
    Are you a Londoner? It feels like you are not.

    On top of this horrible knife murder epidemic you have the acid attacks and the moped robberies (of which, apparently, 5% end in a successful prosecution and conviction - basically it's a punishment-free crime)

    Khan, perhaps unluckily, or not, has presided over all this. He is now, for the first time, getting the blame. And he has no vivid answers. Or, indeed, answers. Sitting there looking awkward on breakfast TV saying "this will take ten years to solve, at least" is just a terrible position. It's the argument of an academic, not a politician.

    Boris, for all his faults, would not have made these basic media mistakes. Faced with these crimes, you have to appear active and angry, not passive and theoretical.

    FAIL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    “... a rather nasty respiratory infection that has been with us for over four weeks and has utterly drained us...”
    Four weeks is nasty indeed.
    Get well soon, Mr & Mrs. G.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,326
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many, but( with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100) there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.
    Are you a Londoner? It feels like you are not.

    On top of this horrible knife murder epidemic you have the acid attacks and the moped robberies (of which, apparently, 5% end in a successful prosecution and conviction - basically it's a punishment-free crime)

    Khan, perhaps unluckily, or not, has presided over all this. He is now, for the first time, getting the blame. And he has no vivid answers. Or, indeed, answers. Sitting there looking awkward on breakfast TV saying "this will take ten years to solve, at least" is just a terrible position. It's the argument of an academic, not a politician.

    Boris, for all his faults, would not have made these basic media mistakes. Faced with these crimes, you have to appear active and angry, not passive and theoretical.

    FAIL.
    I saw an attempted moped theft a few months ago in Whitechapel. Butterfingered thief dropped the victim's item after snatching it. Seeing her pick it up and carry on her conversation as if nothing had happened was almost more chilling than the attempted robbery itself.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 10,722
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening everyone.

    Evening Andy J. :D

    Ready for another election night on PB? :)
    Can't wait for the numbers to start rolling in. I don't have a spreadsheet this time though.
    All the bookies breathe a huge sigh of relief.....
  • Pulpstar said:

    Oh wait more shitty exit polls about the impact of owning dogs vs cats

    71% of those polled said Cats and Dogs living together was 'unfavorable' etc etc
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    And we are off on CNN with actual votes...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,168
    More voters want to see Democrats in control of the house than Republicans (53 percent to 43 percent).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,473
    edited November 6
    15 minutes ago the GOP were 5.3 to hold the House but now it's back down to 3.6 again, which is pretty much where it was earlier in the day.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,575
    Where are people watching CNN?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223
    Healthcare being a major issue in exit polls favours Ds. Looks like voters are realizing that hated Obamacare was the beloved ACA all along!
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326
    edited November 6
    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.
  • l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.
  • Anyone got a good live results webpage?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 39,276

    Anyone got a good live results webpage?

    You're on it...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 47,145
    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
This discussion has been closed.