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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might hap

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  • Oh god CNN are back to exit poll bollocks.
  • Mortimer said:

    l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.

    To be honest, we're just as bad.

    'Rumours of x safe Tory seat looking close'

    2 hours later

    x safe Tory seat won by 10k votes
    I know, but we don't even get numbers, just hapless reportage from windswept regional leisure centres.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Scott_P said:
    Oh the media wailing if Trump's party does well....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Mortimer said:

    l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.

    To be honest, we're just as bad.

    'Rumours of x safe Tory seat looking close'

    2 hours later

    x safe Tory seat won by 10k votes
    Impossible! I'm sure we'd all remember if we had ever done something so silly. *shuffles nervously*

    It really is one of those things everyone silently agrees to give a pass - a necessary part of the theatre of elections.

    But personally I do not have the stamina these evening. Pleasant night to all, particularly poor BigG.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.

    To be honest, we're just as bad.

    'Rumours of x safe Tory seat looking close'

    2 hours later

    x safe Tory seat won by 10k votes
    Impossible! I'm sure we'd all remember if we had ever done something so silly. *shuffles nervously*

    It really is one of those things everyone silently agrees to give a pass - a necessary part of the theatre of elections.

    But personally I do not have the stamina these evening. Pleasant night to all, particularly poor BigG.
    :)

    I think it is bang out of order to have elections on any day other than Thursday, tbh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    Oh the media wailing if Trump's party does well....
    I doubt there would be much introspection about why the disparity between expectation and results if that is the case however.
  • It's that time of the night when a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2018

    l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.

    President Kerry 2004 most infamously or Florida called for Bush then Gore then back in 2000
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2018
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    Most likely, Bailey is not treat but he is right to focus on crime and he could connect, he has some charisma.

    Alan Sugar might also be a future prospect as a no nonsense independent
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    It's that time of the night when a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

    I call that time 'all the time'. Makes things simpler for me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited November 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    Oh the media wailing if Trump's party does well....
    I've thought all along that Trump and GOP will have a decent night.

    He may be a completely deranged international embarrassment but Americans will vote for the mighty $$$ IMO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Lord, I have to find a different channel to SKY for these results. Adam Boulton has the passion of a Labrador whose just eaten a whole turkey......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    London has always been a shithole full of violence and crime, along with many other facets.

    It was a pretty dangerous place when I was a medical student in the eighties. The violence is still there, but I am older now and more aware of the hazards.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Lord, I have to find a different channel to SKY for these results. Adam Boulton has the passion of a Labrador whose just eaten a whole turkey......

    CNN are so annoying whilst they talk about their exit polls....
  • Lord, I have to find a different channel to SKY for these results. Adam Boulton has the passion of a Labrador whose just eaten a whole turkey......

    Our Lab would be passionate about eating a second turkey
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 odd years.
  • GOP to hold the House?
  • SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    We can elect who we like, but mayors can't change laws or do much about budgets. I live in Walthamstow and work in Fulham. Last year they closed a large police station in Parsons Green - the area went from having police cars flying around all the time to seeing no police at all. There was a crime wave (basically the criminals moved in as the police moved out) which lasted about a year - and which they have put a lot of resource into closing down - a lot of community effort and liaison. It has worked - the mopeds and knives seem to have moved on. Walthamstow needs more visible policing - hardly ever see any, but then again I have never seen any violent crime here in 5 years.
  • CNN already making excuses for Indiana democrat...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Lord, I have to find a different channel to SKY for these results. Adam Boulton has the passion of a Labrador whose just eaten a whole turkey......

    Our Lab would be passionate about eating a second turkey
    I've never, ever seen a Lab refuse food.

    Our Cockapoo, meanwhile, regularly turns his nose up at food he likes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989
  • Any other results coming in aside from Indiana?
  • Any other results coming in aside from Indiana?

    Kentucky
  • AndyJS said:

    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989

    Good early results for GOP in Indiana, bear in mind only 1% reporting though so may be premature
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 odd years.
    Yes. But it is about impression. Wonder what the equivalent is for Manchester? Murder rates tell little. The vast majority of murders anywhere are amongst family and friends, or ABH gone wrong.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Oof, getting serious 2016 flashbacks....
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    The blue wave is going to be a splashing puddle, isn't it?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Any other results coming in aside from Indiana?

    KY too.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Any other results coming in aside from Indiana?

    Kentucky
    Kentucky 6th is only district in either state which seems to be at all up for grabs
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    Reading this makes me very happy to be in deepest suburbia.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Someone on another site said Sky are showing CNN, but I can see Adam Boulton.
  • Danny565 said:

    Oof, getting serious 2016 flashbacks....

    IIRC the early results were actually more positive for Hilary two years ago.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    It's that time of the night when a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

    Or in Trump's case " Lie la lie"

  • dixiedean said:

    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 odd years.
    Yes. But it is about impression. Wonder what the equivalent is for Manchester? Murder rates tell little. The vast majority of murders anywhere are amongst family and friends, or ABH gone wrong.
    I am going to guess that because the moped crime is so visible and often done in daylight (and video shared by social media) which a lot of people see it leaves a big impression. I would guess say 20 years ago, lots of muggings were at night with few people around and not recorded on cctv / camera phone.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Danny565 said:

    Oof, getting serious 2016 flashbacks....

    Yeh.

    We need someone to call it for Clinton on Florida seats for the full on flashbacks

    :)

    (I love radiohead, btw)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989

    Good early results for GOP in Indiana, bear in mind only 1% reporting though so may be premature
    Indiana and Kentucky are hardly representative of the places where the House will be decided. Could be punters overreacting to the only information they have, once again.
  • AndyJS said:

    Someone on another site said Sky are showing CNN, but I can see Adam Boulton.

    That of course had to be horseshit. If they are going to show any us network it will be Fox News.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2018

    Danny565 said:

    Oof, getting serious 2016 flashbacks....

    IIRC the early results were actually more positive for Hilary two years ago.
    My memory is the exit polls were misleadingly good for her, but, once the real results started coming in, Trump racking up HUGE votes in rural Indiana and Kentucky were the first real warning sign.

    That said, still very early.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Someone on another site said Sky are showing CNN, but I can see Adam Boulton.

    That of course had to be horseshit. If they are going to show any us network it will be Fox News.
    Maybe it was Fox.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    dixiedean said:

    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 odd years.
    Yes. But it is about impression. Wonder what the equivalent is for Manchester? Murder rates tell little. The vast majority of murders anywhere are amongst family and friends, or ABH gone wrong.
    In terms of stabbings in London, it is dangerous to be a young black man. Middle aged white blokes seem pretty safe;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/04/killed-in-2018-londons-victims-of-violence
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    Reading this makes me very happy to be in deepest suburbia.
    Agreed.

    A few weeks ago someone rang our doorbell at 11pm. I was London-dubious at first.

    Turned out it was the chap who runs the local offy trying to figure out which of our neighbours had left their outside tap on, to remind them to turn it off.

    #lovetheprovinces
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair over-reacting all over the place (in both directions).
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Oof, getting serious 2016 flashbacks....

    IIRC the early results were actually more positive for Hilary two years ago.
    My memory is the exit polls were misleadingly good for her, but, once the real results started coming in, Trump racking up HUGE votes in rural Indiana and Kentucky were the first real warning sign.

    That said, still very early.
    I think Hilary has issues re turnout compared to Obama. That may be the difference tonight - two years of Trump might see more voters turnout for the Dems. We will have to see.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    dixiedean said:

    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.
    The murder rate in London has barely changed in 30 odd years.
    Yes. But it is about impression. Wonder what the equivalent is for Manchester? Murder rates tell little. The vast majority of murders anywhere are amongst family and friends, or ABH gone wrong.
    It’s not really ‘all about impression’ though is it? It’s about the chances of getting popped. There is an interesting academic report online about gangs in Walthamstow. Suggests the county lines operation has actually reduced violence as territorial postcode battles are bad for business. The organised sale of coke and weed to seaside resorts in the east of England is a big money game, so various postcode gangs in the area have teamed up rather than fight each other over parochial territorial battles.
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989

    Good early results for GOP in Indiana, bear in mind only 1% reporting though so may be premature
    Indiana and Kentucky are hardly representative of the places where the House will be decided. Could be punters overreacting to the only information they have, once again.
    The problem is CNN are talking them up like they are.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew said:

    Betfair over-reacting all over the place (in both directions).

    Creating opportunities for those who don't overreact.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    No projection based on 1% of the vote in IN? :p
  • CNN hosts looking very nervous.
  • SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many but, with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100. there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.

    Not sure Khan can be blamed tbh.
    The dip in the 'deaths from violent crime' figure corresponds directly with the period when London had more elected Tory MPs than at any point in the past 21 years.

    And a Tory mayor and a Tory PM.

    Bailey and London Tories in general need to be hammering this point home, over and over.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    CNN hosts looking very nervous.

    That SNL clip was brilliant....
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    No projection based on 1% of the vote in IN? :p

    You rooting for Trumpton Rob?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Anazina said:

    RobD said:

    No projection based on 1% of the vote in IN? :p

    You rooting for Trumpton Rob?
    Flashbacks to Jobabob pressuring people into rooting for someone or other in 2016.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Mortimer said:


    (I love radiohead, btw)

    Fake plastic news.....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    London has always been a shithole full of violence and crime, along with many other facets.

    It was a pretty dangerous place when I was a medical student in the eighties. The violence is still there, but I am older now and more aware of the hazards.
    Mr Foxy - TSK. If you come to my part of London I will show you sights that will make you fall in love with the place.
  • Kentucky 06 just turned from red to light blue on CNN.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Nathaniel Rakich
    6:45 PM

    Indiana and Kentucky are both counting their votes S-L-O-W-L-Y. We have 1 percent to 3 percent of precincts reporting in a few districts like the Kentucky 6th and Indiana 9th, but anyone trying to read into those results is trying too hard."

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Kentucky 06 just turned from red to light blue on CNN.

    Yeh, 47 votes in it....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    London has always been a shithole full of violence and crime, along with many other facets.

    It was a pretty dangerous place when I was a medical student in the eighties. The violence is still there, but I am older now and more aware of the hazards.
    Mr Foxy - TSK. If you come to my part of London I will show you sights that will make you fall in love with the place.
    Less catchy, but more accurate, than, 'I will show you fear in a handful of dust'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989

    Good early results for GOP in Indiana, bear in mind only 1% reporting though so may be premature
    Indiana and Kentucky are hardly representative of the places where the House will be decided. Could be punters overreacting to the only information they have, once again.
    Even Romney won Indiana and Kentucky, all the seats there are expected to be safe GOP bar 1 in Kentucky where the GOP lead by 2% at the moment
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    London has always been a shithole full of violence and crime, along with many other facets.

    It was a pretty dangerous place when I was a medical student in the eighties. The violence is still there, but I am older now and more aware of the hazards.
    Mr Foxy - TSK. If you come to my part of London I will show you sights that will make you fall in love with the place.
    Its not all bad! I quite like parts of London, and had a most enjoyable walk in the Mall the other week. A bit crowded mind...

    Even Kings Cross is civilised nowadays. That really was dodgy a few years ago.
  • Even in the Kentucky house districts there is only 1% in, so its waaaaay too early to project. Let alone talk about potential winners in the Florida senate race as Andrew Neil has when the polls are still open!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989

    Good early results for GOP in Indiana, bear in mind only 1% reporting though so may be premature
    Indiana and Kentucky are hardly representative of the places where the House will be decided. Could be punters overreacting to the only information they have, once again.
    Even Romney won Indiana and Kentucky, all the seats there are expected to be safe GOP bar 1 in Kentucky where the GOP lead by 2% at the moment
    The Indiana Senate seat is/was not "expected" to be safe Republican.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I’m going to bed. These results so far are meaningless Dems turned a deep red district blue in Kentucky but there’s only 1% reporting, so the MOE is gigantic.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Usually I watch CNN's live stream on election night but for the first time it's saying not available outside the USA.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Democrats now 8% up in the only swing district reporting so far, Kentucky 6th.

    If so a good early sign for Pelosi but a long way to go

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    Someone asked about Fox - they have two official streams starting on Youtube at midnight GMT : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXIJgqnII2ZOINSWNOGFThA

    (let's see if this posts via politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com, I've not been able to log in via the main site in ages)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    That is sad. I lived in East Ham and Tottenham in the early 90's as a student. My then girlfriend, now wife, would happily walk home alone off the last tube. We never felt in any danger. Moving to Longsight in Manchester, by contrast, you felt almost anything could go off at any time.
    My eldest has just started at Manchester Uni. The vibe of the entire city just "feels" different now.
    Ditto London, but in the opposite direction.

    My youngest is in Manchester and loves the place. But he moved from the area where he was living last year because there were gangs there and he said you had to go home with others to avoid being mugged. He now has a flat 2 mins from the bus stop and likes it much more. So I think there are rough areas everywhere.

    I lived in Brixton for a while, at the time of the riots and we were always getting burgled. It got so bad at one point that the burglar came in to my bedroom with our bread knife but then took fright when he realised someone was in there. Still, I felt safe on the streets, safer than at home. At one point, when our back window was boarded up we toyed with the idea of painting a sign on the outside saying "Fuck Off: Everything's Already Gone".

    But in the genteel area where I am now - fingers crossed - it feels as safe as anything.

    And in our Cumbrian village, we leave doors open without a care. Finding a key to lock up is a major undertaking. But then everyone knows exactly what you are doing and since the house is a building site there is sod all to steal anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    HYUFD said:

    Democrats now 8% up in the only swing district reporting so far, Kentucky 6th.

    If so a good early sign for Pelosi but a long way to go

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

    Republicans now 0.1% up in 6th district in Kentucky, very tight there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not sure why but the Betfair Exchange odds have just shifted slightly to the GOP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989

    Good early results for GOP in Indiana, bear in mind only 1% reporting though so may be premature
    Indiana and Kentucky are hardly representative of the places where the House will be decided. Could be punters overreacting to the only information they have, once again.
    Even Romney won Indiana and Kentucky, all the seats there are expected to be safe GOP bar 1 in Kentucky where the GOP lead by 2% at the moment
    The Indiana Senate seat is/was not "expected" to be safe Republican.
    I am not that interested in the Senate, the GOP will almost certainly hold it given the seats up, the House is the one that could switch.

    Indiana could be a close Senate race though
  • AndyJS said:

    Usually I watch CNN's live stream on election night but for the first time it's saying not available outside the USA.

    I imagine that streamfare dot com forward slash cnn dot html might help you out on that score.
  • El_Sid said:

    Someone asked about Fox - they have two official streams starting on Youtube at midnight GMT : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXIJgqnII2ZOINSWNOGFThA

    (let's see if this posts via politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com, I've not been able to log in via the main site in ages)

    It’s beyond me why CNN / Fox wouldn’t have a stream on YouTube all the time. Seems like a low cost way of spreading your brand.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    London has always been a shithole full of violence and crime, along with many other facets.

    It was a pretty dangerous place when I was a medical student in the eighties. The violence is still there, but I am older now and more aware of the hazards.
    Mr Foxy - TSK. If you come to my part of London I will show you sights that will make you fall in love with the place.
    Its not all bad! I quite like parts of London, and had a most enjoyable walk in the Mall the other week. A bit crowded mind...

    Even Kings Cross is civilised nowadays. That really was dodgy a few years ago.
    Oh God yes - an absolute dive. That was when we had a DPP who kerb-crawled......

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    Some areas of London seem to have become much safer than they used to be: the area of Brent around Harlesden used to be notorious but there have only been two murders in the borough as a whole over the last 18 months.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Democrats now 8% up in the only swing district reporting so far, Kentucky 6th.

    If so a good early sign for Pelosi but a long way to go

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

    Republicans now 0.1% up in 6th district in Kentucky, very tight there
    Tiny %s reporting, I wouldn't read into it yet
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    538 just nudged up another Dem seat
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Democrats now 8% up in the only swing district reporting so far, Kentucky 6th.

    If so a good early sign for Pelosi but a long way to go

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

    Republicans now 0.1% up in 6th district in Kentucky, very tight there
    Tiny %s reporting, I wouldn't read into it yet
    Yep. GOP are 3% down now after 6% counted
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Anazina said:

    I’m going to bed. These results so far are meaningless Dems turned a deep red district blue in Kentucky but there’s only 1% reporting, so the MOE is gigantic.

    Yes, it is a TAD early to draw any conclusions, but John King* does do lots of comparisons with past elections so that it's easier to understand what significance the ratios in different counties has.

    *He is very good, but he is too hyper for my midnight brain.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Calling VT for Bernie - who saw that coming?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Calling SC gov for GOP
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Usually I watch CNN's live stream on election night but for the first time it's saying not available outside the USA.

    I imagine that streamfare dot com forward slash cnn dot html might help you out on that score.
    Thanks, haven't tried that before.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
    Yep. I predict within 5-10 years London will elect a seriously rightwing, crime-crushing mayor. He will probably be black or Asian. Either way he will be elected to clean up the mess, and fuck the Guardian.
    London has always been a shithole full of violence and crime, along with many other facets.

    It was a pretty dangerous place when I was a medical student in the eighties. The violence is still there, but I am older now and more aware of the hazards.
    Mr Foxy - TSK. If you come to my part of London I will show you sights that will make you fall in love with the place.
    Its not all bad! I quite like parts of London, and had a most enjoyable walk in the Mall the other week. A bit crowded mind...

    Even Kings Cross is civilised nowadays. That really was dodgy a few years ago.
    Oh God yes - an absolute dive. That was when we had a DPP who kerb-crawled......

    and compared with Peru, our plod don't seem so bad.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/06/peru-police-chief-baby-smuggling-arrest-raul-becerra?CMP=twt_gu
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Wow, an uncontested seat in Virgina.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    In case anyone cares, I live in GA 7
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Bernie Sanders and Tim Kaine re-elected.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Tim_B said:

    Calling SC gov for GOP

    Knock me down with a feather!

    It would be exciting if they declared independence again...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Wow, an uncontested seat in Virgina.

    Quite a lot of those AFAIK, including in Boston. Not great for democracy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim_B said:

    Calling VT for Bernie - who saw that coming?

    Used to be one of the safest states for the Republicans only a few decades ago.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    Calling VT for Bernie - who saw that coming?

    Used to be one of the safest states for the Republicans only a few decades ago.
    At the same time that West Virginia was one of the most Democrat-leaning states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Dems now up 0.6% in Kentucky.

    So far 2 House seats called for the GOP and 2 for the Democrats
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Some areas of London seem to have become much safer than they used to be: the area of Brent around Harlesden used to be notorious but there have only been two murders in the borough as a whole over the last 18 months.

    As others have noted, King's X is the obvious counter-example. Where I used to score smack or go to derelict warehouse raves there are now starry restaurants, piazzas, and St Martins School of Art, It is a miraculous transformation: King's Cross is now cited, across the world, as THE model of post-industrial urban regeneration. Architects and planners come from across the world to see what we did.

    The trouble is that even as inner city areas like King's Cross, Holborn, Paddington, etc, have been reborn, the crime has merely shifted, not vanished. The inner suburbs have declined: places like Harlesden or Wembley, once tedious but safe, are now dangerous and crime-ridden.
    A friend of mine was rather nastily mugged in 1996 in Wembley. I don't think it's improved much.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Wow, an uncontested seat in Virgina.

    Quite a lot of those AFAIK, including in Boston. Not great for democracy.
    My US Rep, Nita Lowey, is effectively unopposed as there’s no Republican challenger. There is a minor party challenger and you can write-in a candidate of your own choice. I think pretty much all states allow write-ins.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    In California, everyone is talking about Proposition 7. It will - after all - have more impact on peoples' actual lives than anything else on the ballot.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    Do you really have to be so patronising?

    :tongue:
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    It's way too early to say.
  • Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    I can see the beginnings of a blue wave in Florida.

    Looks like the Dems could take the Governorship and the Senate seat.

    Early results etc
  • Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    I can see the beginnings of a blue wave in Florida.

    Looks like the Dems could take the Governorship and the Senate seat.

    Early results etc
    It's their Senate seat to lose, alas
This discussion has been closed.