Hmm, Democrats' prospects looking a BIT better now. West Virginia looks like it's in their column now, whereas the first exit polls put Manchin behind.
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
KY6 is 88% in and the Dem is 5K behind with about 35K votes to go. For her to win she'll have to take 20K of those votes, and 20K out of 35K is 57%. If the remaining votes are all rural, I don't see that happening. So unless a urban area has an unopened sack of votes, I think the Dem has lost in KY6
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
The theory is that it's likely (not solid) red seats
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!
Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.
Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman
Truman actually won quite comfortably in 1948 - his lead was 4.5%.
4.5% was the worst re election margin for any US president before George W Bush won by 2.4% in 2004 and Obama was re elected by 3.2% in 2012.
IKE was re elected by 15% in 1956 (and he also lost Congress in the 1954 midterms), LBJ was re elected by 23% in 1964, Nixon was re elected by 23% in 1972, Reagan was re elected by 18% in 1984, Bill Clinton was re elected by 8% in 1992.
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
There was a suggestion the input feeds have gone wonky, thus the dramatic changes. Without seeing the internals though, who knows.
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
I have to imagine their sports predictions are much better....
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
I have to imagine their sports predictions are much better....
Their general forecasts are good, it's the live one that has this problem
If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
There was a suggestion the input feeds have gone wonky, thus the dramatic changes. Without seeing the internals though, who knows.
The exit poll answers don’t seem to exact match up with where people actuallly put their cross. They would have been better asking what is your favourite hair colour....
Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!
Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.
Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman
Truman actually won quite comfortably in 1948 - his lead was 4.5%.
4.5% was the worst re election margin for any US president before George W Bush won by 2.4% in 2004 and Obama was re elected by 3.2% in 2012.
IKE was re elected by 15% in 1956 (and he also lost Congress in the 1954 midterms), LBJ was re elected by 23% in 1964, Nixon was re elected by 23% in 1972, Reagan was re elected by 18% in 1984, Bill Clinton was re elected by 8% in 1992.
Indeed so , but your comment had implied that Bush won reelection in 2004 by a bigger margin than gained by Truman in 1948. That was not the case.
I can see the advantages to Republicans doing well, less excuses come 2020 and more desire to get the Republicans out. Whilst I wish Americans the best of luck with their choice my higher priority is them saving the rest of us from their choice for which 2020 is more relevant.
So, Republicans gain - I would guess - Florida, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. Democrats miss in Arizona. Nevada still to come, but I would guess R+3 in the Senate.
House looks like the Dems will eke out quite a few narrow gains. My money would be on them narrowly gaining it.
Are we looking at another triumph for US bigotry and neo-fascism?
No, most likely a mixed bag, the Democrats narrowly gain the House and pick up a few governorships and state legislatures, the GOP increase their lead in the Senate
Gillum is mayor of Tallahassee. It turns out he was under federal corruption investigation - he called everyone who asked him about it a racist. He is also very left wing.
Comments
Broward 51% in
Dade 75% in
KY6 is 88% in and the Dem is 5K behind with about 35K votes to go. For her to win she'll have to take 20K of those votes, and 20K out of 35K is 57%. If the remaining votes are all rural, I don't see that happening. So unless a urban area has an unopened sack of votes, I think the Dem has lost in KY6
Fool me once...
The theory is that it's likely (not solid) red seats
IKE was re elected by 15% in 1956 (and he also lost Congress in the 1954 midterms), LBJ was re elected by 23% in 1964, Nixon was re elected by 23% in 1972, Reagan was re elected by 18% in 1984, Bill Clinton was re elected by 8% in 1992.
[EDIT: I'm really not joking...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 32% in
VA 2 Dems 50% GOP 50% 86% in
Pause.
And so to bed.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059987292989857792
Enjoy all.
Be careful with your spread bets...
House looks like the Dems will eke out quite a few narrow gains. My money would be on them narrowly gaining it.
Blue puddle, it would seem...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html
seems to be working.
EDIT: O'Rourke +3.6% now with Harris County beginning to report
I suspect they'll end up gaining 25-30 seats and just snagging the House.
Says the man who has bets on him holding on.