Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young

13

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2018
    CNN talking down o’rourke chances.....talking up his positive impact yadda yadda....we know who they want for POTUS candidate 2020.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Manchin projected to be re elected in WV
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2018
    Marsha Blackburn projected to win Tennessee
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    How ‘toss-up’ districts are voting so far
    As of 9:03 p.m.

    PRE-ELECTION WIN PROBABILITIES TONIGHT’S RETURNS
    RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN PERCENT REPORTING VOTE MARGIN ABC PROJECTION
    VA-2 Luria 40.6% Taylor 59.4% 88% D+1.7
    PA-1 Wallace 40.6 Fitzpatrick 59.4 2 R+1.4
    KY-6 McGrath 42.7 Barr 57.3 96 R+3.0 ✔ R
    TX-32 Allred 46.3 Sessions 53.7 0 D+7.3
    FL-26 Mucarsel-Powell 50.2 Curbelo 49.8 89 D+1.4
    VA-7 Spanberger 52.0 Brat 48.0 75 R+3.0
    NC-9 McCready 55.0 Harris 45.0 34 D+0.4

    Essentially the toss ups are breaking pretty evenly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Getting a bit repetitive, but it's now 30 million votes counted... and still only 2 seats changing hands.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    One of the shreds of comfort for the Democrats is that their results look pretty solid in some of the key swing states in presidential elections (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    PA 10 Dems 54% GOP 46% 2% in
  • rcs1000 said:

    How ‘toss-up’ districts are voting so far
    As of 9:03 p.m.


    PRE-ELECTION WIN PROBABILITIES TONIGHT’S RETURNS
    RACE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN PERCENT REPORTING VOTE MARGIN ABC PROJECTION
    VA-2 Luria 40.6% Taylor 59.4% 88% D+1.7
    PA-1 Wallace 40.6 Fitzpatrick 59.4 2 R+1.4
    KY-6 McGrath 42.7 Barr 57.3 96 R+3.0 ✔ R
    TX-32 Allred 46.3 Sessions 53.7 0 D+7.3
    FL-26 Mucarsel-Powell 50.2 Curbelo 49.8 89 D+1.4
    VA-7 Spanberger 52.0 Brat 48.0 75 R+3.0
    NC-9 McCready 55.0 Harris 45.0 34 D+0.4

    Essentially the toss ups are breaking pretty evenly.
    VA-7 is not R+3 on NYT - it's in play.

    The two Virginia plus FL-27 is critical
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Getting a bit repetitive, but it's now 30 million votes counted... and still only 2 seats changing hands.

    To be pedantic, only two seats are confirmed to be changing hands. The Democrats are currently ahead in enough seats to flip the House, but most of the contests are still too close to call.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    79 votes out of 4.4 million separate the candidates in Texas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Colo 6 Dems 54% 46% GOP 65% in
  • AndyJS said:

    Getting a bit repetitive, but it's now 30 million votes counted... and still only 2 seats changing hands.

    It is like the us is divided and entrenched in their side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Anyone using a better Senate drill down tool than the NYT one? - which seems to be talking rubbish in various places (e.g. Texas only '3%' reporting after >5m votes)

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    AndyJS said:

    79 votes out of 4.4 million separate the candidates in Texas.

    Remarkable

    And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed. G'night all!
  • CNN mention o’rourke more than the golf channel mention tiger woods...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    AndyJS said:

    Getting a bit repetitive, but it's now 30 million votes counted... and still only 2 seats changing hands.

    But there are about a dozen seats uncalled where the Dems are a few percent ahead, and we're 60-70% counted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    CNN: disappointing night for the Democrats.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Getting a bit repetitive, but it's now 30 million votes counted... and still only 2 seats changing hands.

    Maybe the Dems have a herd of dachshunds called Colin.
  • And the cnn talking heads are now looking for excuses...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    AndyJS said:

    79 votes out of 4.4 million separate the candidates in Texas.

    NYT has:

    Beto O'Rourke
    Dem.
    2,691,351 50.9%
    Ted Cruz*
    Rep.
    2,534,644 48.0%
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Hrrrm, this is looking so close it probably won't be decided by the time I wake up tomorrow. Maybe some fun with legal challenges?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Trump is winning in 2020 judging by this evening.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Just catching up. Those 538 plots remind me of 2016!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    79 votes out of 4.4 million separate the candidates in Texas.

    NYT has:

    Beto O'Rourke
    Dem.
    2,691,351 50.9%
    Ted Cruz*
    Rep.
    2,534,644 48.0%
    Democrats improving now.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    And the cnn talking heads are now looking for excuses...

    Maybe they don't have a herd of dachshunds called Colin.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    AndyJS said:

    CNN: disappointing night for the Democrats.

    It is.

    They've likely fallen 10-15 short of where they might have gone in the House, but they've still probably gained it. They have lost a number of Senate seats - certainly Florida and Indiana - and likely Missouri and North Dakota. They've made some gubnatorial gains, but not as many as they'd hoped.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much
  • Given supposedly all women, all the surburbs, all minorities hate Trump...99% of white men must be voting GOP!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump is winning in 2020 judging by this evening.

    Midterms for the umpteenth term have no relevance whatsoever to presidential elections, Clinton and Obama were both re elected comfortably despite terrible first midterms, W Bush was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman despite great first midterms, Carter lost to Reagan despite the Democrats holding the House and Senate in 1978.

    It looks like the GOP will comfortably hold the Senate, the Democrats may still take the House but with more of a trickle than a wave but its consequences for 2020 will be virtually nil
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Betfair odds have finally split from 538, for now at least. 538 still at 55/45% chance, Betfair now near 70% Dem takeover.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Quincel said:

    Betfair odds have finally split from 538, for now at least. 538 still at 55/45% chance, Betfair now near 70% Dem takeover.

    Maybe affected by Fox News saying the Dems are going to win the House.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Tim_B said:

    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much

    Jeez, really sticking their necks out on that one.
  • Andrew said:

    Tim_B said:

    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much

    Jeez, really sticking their necks out on that one.
    It's 1.4
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    538 forecasts 25 Dem gains, with 23 needed. But at least 2 are going to come down to a recount you'd have thought.
  • CNN have totally stopped talking about Florida.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Tim_B said:

    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much

    Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.

    I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.

    When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    AndyJS said:

    538 forecasts 25 Dem gains, with 23 needed. But at least 2 are going to come down to a recount you'd have thought.

    I think 538 is 2-3 seats low on the House.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much

    Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.

    I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.

    When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
    Yes, tonight's results mean the GOP will probably keep the Senate in 2020 as well.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Texas definitely looking close. Certainly not going to be a comfortable victory for Cruz if he wins.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2018
    Nate Cohn saying NYT live forecast finally about to go live.

    Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Virginia 7th on a knife-edge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Andrew said:

    Nate Cohn saying NYT live forecast finally about to go live.

    Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.

    >95% chance of Dem control. Quite a bit different from 538.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2018
    538 seem to be trailing the others now, up to +27. Data problems?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Nate Cohn saying NYT live forecast finally about to go live.

    Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.

    >95% chance of Dem control. Quite a bit different from 538.
    I wouldn't be that positive, but the last 90 minutes has seen the Dems consolidate lots of leads in toss-up races. If California is good for them, victory in the House will be some succour for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    NY Times now projects Dems have a 95% chance of taking the House and projects 233 Dem seats to 203 GOP
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

    NY Times projects the GOP have a 95% chance of holding the Senate and projects 53 GOP Senators to 47 Dem

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Lying Ted takes the lead
  • How many of these sodding politicians are under indictment and still on the ticket?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    GOP concede Fla26.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    How many of these sodding politicians are under indictment and still on the ticket?

    At least they haven’t been caught running through fields of wheat :o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Andrew said:

    Nate Cohn saying NYT live forecast finally about to go live.

    Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.

    >95% chance of Dem control. Quite a bit different from 538.
    I wouldn't be that positive, but the last 90 minutes has seen the Dems consolidate lots of leads in toss-up races. If California is good for them, victory in the House will be some succour for them.
    California should seal the House at least for the Dems, in 2016 Trump was ahead in the national popular vote at this point before California came in, the Democrats currently fractionally lead the national popular vote in the House
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited November 2018

    Given supposedly all women, all the surburbs, all minorities hate Trump...99% of white men must be voting GOP!

    Only ethnic and educated women break against Trump.
  • RobD said:

    How many of these sodding politicians are under indictment and still on the ticket?

    At least they haven’t been caught running through fields of wheat :o
    Maybe they are all claiming to be present but didn’t think they were involved.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    TN called for GOP

    Tim, it seems you were right to be sceptical about the Democrats' chances of winning the House a few days ago.
    Thanks for the compliment. I was sceptical last week, but I said on here that over the weekend I felt the GOP House hold slipping away, but was fairly sure about the Senate
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    How many of these sodding politicians are under indictment and still on the ticket?

    At least they haven’t been caught running through fields of wheat :o
    They wouldn't ear of it :o
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Dadge said:

    Given supposedly all women, all the surburbs, all minorities hate Trump...99% of white men must be voting GOP!

    Only ethnic and educated women break against Trump.
    White women were +9 for Trump in 2016, I suspect the number today is more like +2 or +3.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much

    Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.

    I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.

    When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
    Yes, tonight's results mean the GOP will probably keep the Senate in 2020 as well.
    If you realise how the Senate is composed, you also realise that a Dem win would require a Dem landslide.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Dadge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much

    Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.

    I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.

    When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
    Yes, tonight's results mean the GOP will probably keep the Senate in 2020 as well.
    If you realise how the Senate is composed, you also realise that a Dem win would require a Dem landslide.
    Yes, there are only about 20 reliably blue states which puts the Dems at a big long-term disadvantage in the Senate.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Do we have a handle on where the outstanding Texas votes are from ?

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    How did CNN call a Colorado seat - surely polls still open?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Mitt Romney elected in Utah
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Looks like the polls have overstated the Dems by 1-2%. Not enough to stop them winning the House but has caused a number of senate seats to flip.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Do we have a handle on where the outstanding Texas votes are from ?

    possibly some discovered ballot boxes - shades of Landslide Lyndon? :wink:
  • CNN stat board man desperately trying to find democrat votes in florida.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Cramer senate win in ND
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2018
    538 suddenly ticked up to +36 - almost exactly what they forecast before the polls opened.

    What a mess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Democrats projected to hold their Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Mexico Senate seats.

    Mitt Romney projected to win the Utah Senate seat for the GOP
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Andrew said:

    538 suddenly ticked up to +36. What a mess.

    Yeah, learned a big lesson tonight to ignore their live model. Will remember for 2020!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited November 2018
    FL looks over - GOP win both
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Andrew said:

    538 suddenly ticked up to +36. What a mess.

    Yeah, learned a big lesson tonight to ignore their live model. Will remember for 2020!
    Meanwhile the NYT live results still seem very confused about the Texas Senate seat.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    CNN stat board man desperately trying to find democrat votes in florida.

    How dare you call the great John King the "stat board man".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Looks like the polls have overstated the Dems by 1-2%. Not enough to stop them winning the House but has caused a number of senate seats to flip.

    Not Rasmussen though which had the GOP ahead in the popular vote and holding the House
  • Dadge said:

    CNN stat board man desperately trying to find democrat votes in florida.

    How dare you call the great John King the "stat board man".
    How about the “desperately seeking democrat votes” man?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    538 seems bullish on the Dems' chances in AZ and NV. Would partially offset some of their losses
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Kansas looks a great gubernatorial pick up for the Dems.
  • Did I just hear there is a house member called yoda?
  • CNN now boosting the blue wave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    The 538 House model was utterly appalling this evening. There was never a time when it looked less that about 65% likely to be a Democratic gain, even when there were a few poor Virginia results.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Looks like the polls have had a pretty good night. Indiana was off, but most Senate seats are going to form - even if that means a narrow win for one side where the other had a small lead (Florida, for example).
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Did I just hear there is a house member called yoda?

    An Ojeda there is. hmm
  • And now John king is on the democrat vote hunt in Texas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    This is consequential for 2020:
    Florida has voted to restore voting rights to 1.4 million resident felons who have completed their sentences.

    The amendment to Florida's constitution required 60% approval to pass....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    The Dems are doing very well in wealthy suburbia. The Illinois 13th was a likely Republican seat, that was gerrymandered to be a fairly safe one, and the Dems look likely to nab it.

    It will be interesting to see the Orange County results.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    rcs1000 said:

    The 538 House model was utterly appalling this evening. There was never a time when it looked less that about 65% likely to be a Democratic gain, even when there were a few poor Virginia results.

    Yeah, and predictably Betfair followed blindly. Managed to make a small profit on that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Houston + Dallas - CNN % in by County looks misleading - vote totals are high implying % in looks too low

    Similar to Broward earlier
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    I wonder how reliable a Republican vote Romney will be in the Senate ?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MikeL said:

    How did CNN call a Colorado seat - surely polls still open?

    No, polls there closed 7pm MST, so 9pm EST, 2am GMT.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Bigfoot erotica guy survives...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Nigelb said:

    This is consequential for 2020:
    Florida has voted to restore voting rights to 1.4 million resident felons who have completed their sentences.

    The amendment to Florida's constitution required 60% approval to pass....

    Arrested development?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    ABC calls TX for Cruz
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    rcs1000 said:

    The 538 House model was utterly appalling this evening. There was never a time when it looked less that about 65% likely to be a Democratic gain, even when there were a few poor Virginia results.

    Yeah, and predictably Betfair followed blindly. Managed to make a small profit on that.
    538 took the role of overly swingy live forecast that makes people place stupid bets, which is normally the NYT tracker.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Listening to John King, as the seats get flipped to Dems he often says "we flipped it"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Cruz projected to hold Texas
  • Has there been any talk about turn out percentages?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Dems projected to gain PA 6th district
  • Tim_B said:

    Listening to John King, as the seats get flipped to Dems he often says "we flipped it"

    I’m shocked I tell you....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Nigelb said:

    I wonder how reliable a Republican vote Romney will be in the Senate ?

    I suspect highly. My guess is he replaces Jeff Flake as the senator who talks a big game but votes on party lines.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I've lost track of what's happening in the governors races
  • Seems like trump is a massive drag on the GOP in the suburbs, but a big boost for GOP in rural areas.
This discussion has been closed.