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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Dems win the House while defeated O’Rourke becomes 3rd fav

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    It's irrelevant because only two thirds of states had senate elections
    See Ojeda got fairly well thumped with 43.6% of the vote. Disappointing but indicative that the blue wave turned into not much more than a ripple.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    ydoethur said:

    Tim_B said:

    Looks like a recount in WI race. 635 vote difference.

    Source? Looks like a thumping Democrat win to me.

    Or did you mean MI?
    Nope WI. Source news networks
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283

    DavidL said:

    It looks like the Republicans are going to do even better in the Senate than forecast. The Dems will be particularly disappointed to lose Florida. That does not bode well for 2020.

    But the franchise reform in Florida has gone through, allowing former felons to vote. That will tip the state back to the Democrats.
    It's gone through in over 30 states so far.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    ydoethur said:

    Tim_B said:

    Looks like a recount in WI race. 635 vote difference.

    Source? Looks like a thumping Democrat win to me.

    Or did you mean MI?
    update - Evers 1,309,069 Walker 1,278,917
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It looks like the Republicans are going to do even better in the Senate than forecast. The Dems will be particularly disappointed to lose Florida. That does not bode well for 2020.

    But the franchise reform in Florida has gone through, allowing former felons to vote. That will tip the state back to the Democrats.
    Its hard to argue its not trending Republican right now. Sitting Dem senator defeated, Republican Governor reelected, voted for Trump etc. How many ex felons are going to vote?
    Against that it seems Texas might be trending the other way faster than was previously thought.
    Beto did well but as far as I can see on RCP the Dems had 2 pickups in the entire State in the House winning 13 out of 36 districts in total. Some way to go methinks, even allowing for gerrymandering.
  • The only thing I can think this result shows is advantage Trump.

    Dems will be pleased to win the house, but statewide races still an issue for them. This is peak anti-Trump probably, re-election has to be a good prospect now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219

    The only thing I can think this result shows is advantage Trump.

    Dems will be pleased to win the house, but statewide races still an issue for them. This is peak anti-Trump probably, re-election has to be a good prospect now.

    As I said yesterday if there is any attempt at impeachment the Jury is the Senate and Trump has stacked it in his favour. The Dems would be well advised to not even try now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,753
    Polls look to have been pretty accurate, so few surprises. 538 pretty accurate before its in play wobble. Close, but no cigar for Beto. Jim Crow wins in GA.

    Looking at the HoR map, that really is a spectacular bit of urban/rural divide, with a few cotton belt exceptions. Not that England is very different, I suppose.

  • IanB2 said:

    JenS said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Actually isn’t that the case in most countries for most of history? Democracy is not a natural state of affairs. The USA is still,broadly speaking, a democracy but it is not a fully functioning one. Not only does its much vaunted constitution not procure majority rule, there is also the serious problem that it does not have an independent judiciary. The normalisation of gerrymandering and vote rigging (through voter suppression) isn’t great either.
    A turnout of less than half and yet still people have to stand in line for hours to vote isn't a great look either.
    Isn't a great look?

    Were the things that we see in US elections to happen in an ex-colony in Africa we would be talking about stolen elections and economic sanctions. The frog has been boiled and the Republicans are getting away with it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,178
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    Wyoming has the same number of senate seats as NY or CA - 2
    And let's not forget that voters in California get to choose between a Democrat and a Democrat.
    Which also made the total vote by party skewed against the Republicans.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,178
    It's not clear from these results how the Democrats go about selecting a candidate to beat Trump in 2020.
  • Seems fair. From here, you’d expect Trump to win again in 2020 while losing the popular vote by an even bigger margin. That will certainly give him the chance to build the conservative majority in the Supreme Court at a minimum. The challenge for the Republicans, though, is a demographic one. At some point the dam will break. When the Democrats do eventually win the elections to match their votes there will undoubtedly be a constitutional reckoning.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,931

    Michigan becomes another populous state to legalise recreational pot. With the US trend and news the incoming Mexican administration is going to legalise as well we are well on our way to North America wide legalisation. That's got to provoke change in Europe at some point.

    Corbo's silence on this issue is typical of his rank stupidity. It would be an age 18-25 voter turnout machine. The tories better hope he never works it out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,268
    This is the key point. Trump's ability to play the outcome for the next two years will matter at least as much as conventional psephological projections. He probably never wanted the job to begin with, but his ego will want to be re-elected.
  • It's not clear from these results how the Democrats go about selecting a candidate to beat Trump in 2020.

    Problem for them is that selecting a moderate won’t energise their base (against a very energised Trump base) whilst someone on the left will be catnip for the 2016 GOP voters. They’re in a bit of a catch 22.
  • Not exactly 'at each other's throats':

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219
    Dura_Ace said:

    Michigan becomes another populous state to legalise recreational pot. With the US trend and news the incoming Mexican administration is going to legalise as well we are well on our way to North America wide legalisation. That's got to provoke change in Europe at some point.

    Corbo's silence on this issue is typical of his rank stupidity. It would be an age 18-25 voter turnout machine. The tories better hope he never works it out.
    Or get on board first but that will not happen whilst May is in charge. Decriminalising Weed and licensing it is about as close to a no brainer as the whole messy and complex field of drug control gets.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283

    IanB2 said:

    JenS said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Actually isn’t that the case in most countries for most of history? Democracy is not a natural state of affairs. The USA is still,broadly speaking, a democracy but it is not a fully functioning one. Not only does its much vaunted constitution not procure majority rule, there is also the serious problem that it does not have an independent judiciary. The normalisation of gerrymandering and vote rigging (through voter suppression) isn’t great either.
    A turnout of less than half and yet still people have to stand in line for hours to vote isn't a great look either.
    Isn't a great look?

    Were the things that we see in US elections to happen in an ex-colony in Africa we would be talking about stolen elections and economic sanctions. The frog has been boiled and the Republicans are getting away with it.
    Voting is very different here. In most countries you walk into a booth with a piece of paper, put an X next to one name, then drop it in a box. My ballot was 4 pages of 8.5 x 11 paper. It covers everything from state rep, state senator, county offices, soil conservation district officer, congressman, judges and on and on, plus any ballot initiatives. It's a lot of stuff. In my state you vote electronically via a touch screen computer. I've watched (and timed) people going to the voting machine and taking 10 to 15 minutes to complete the process.

    It may be cumbersome and inefficient but it's not boiling a frog
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Ha, both my bets (Rep win House, Dem win Texas) failed. Ah well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,068
    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    They will be fighting Trump in 2020.

    He was fighting Hilary Clinton, not Obama.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Scott_P said:
    Oh look, Nevada early voting and voter registration mapping perfectly to the result.

    Again.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    Scott_P said:
    The race has not been called yet - CNN is looking at it exhaustively
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Scott_P said:
    Get in. Walker was a properly corrupt piece of work.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    The Republican house passed plenty of legislation. Harry Reid would not bring hardly anything to the Senate floor.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    They will be fighting Trump in 2020.

    He was fighting Hilary Clinton, not Obama.
    I thought Trump was a goner in 2020. After these results (which I haven't had time to process fully) I think he looks good for re election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    .

    Seems fair. From here, you’d expect Trump to win again in 2020 while losing the popular vote by an even bigger margin. That will certainly give him the chance to build the conservative majority in the Supreme Court at a minimum. The challenge for the Republicans, though, is a demographic one. At some point the dam will break. When the Democrats do eventually win the elections to match their votes there will undoubtedly be a constitutional reckoning.

    I disagree. I think Trump is now odd against.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    Heller is conceding in Nevada.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    AP is calling WI for Evers, but it is within limits for a recount.
  • It's not clear from these results how the Democrats go about selecting a candidate to beat Trump in 2020.

    Problem for them is that selecting a moderate won’t energise their base (against a very energised Trump base) whilst someone on the left will be catnip for the 2016 GOP voters. They’re in a bit of a catch 22.

    I haven’t been following closely, so what are the downsides of O’Rourke?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Tim_B said:

    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    The Republican house passed plenty of legislation. Harry Reid would not bring hardly anything to the Senate floor.
    And Obama nominated plenty of judges that McConnell wouldn't put up for a vote.

    I suspect, now that the Dems have a majority, you are about to see the Dems pass lots of legislation in the House.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219
    Tim_B said:

    Scott_P said:
    The race has not been called yet - CNN is looking at it exhaustively
    RCP has called it. They are saying 99% of the vote is in and the gap is just over 1%.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666
    edited November 2018
    I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    It does, however, look like the GOP will hold the senate for a long time to come. The Dems will be praying be Ginsburg and Breyer manage to soldier on for 2 years, as in the new Senate arithmetic Trump will be able to nominate anyone he likes to replace them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,068
    edited November 2018
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    They will be fighting Trump in 2020.

    He was fighting Hilary Clinton, not Obama.
    I thought Trump was a goner in 2020. After these results (which I haven't had time to process fully) I think he looks good for re election.
    Although if he continues to tweet this kind of shit, the 25th comes back into play:


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681

    It's not clear from these results how the Democrats go about selecting a candidate to beat Trump in 2020.

    I think their least worst option in a mid West/rust belt Senator. Trump's margin of victory there was paper thin, tip those back again and they have the presidency no matter how many votes Trump runs up in the deep south.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283
    Kemp appears to be claiming victory in GA. Not sure about this. Need to be cautious. Abrams not conceding until all ballots are counted.
  • I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    It does, however, look like the GOP will hold the senate for a long time to come. The Dems will be praying be Ginsburg and Breyer manage to soldier on for 2 years, as in the new Senate arithmetic Trump will be able to nominate anyone he likes to replace them.

    +1.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 42,387
    Apparently Texas 23 has been called for the GOP, despite the Democrat having more votes...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219

    It's not clear from these results how the Democrats go about selecting a candidate to beat Trump in 2020.

    Problem for them is that selecting a moderate won’t energise their base (against a very energised Trump base) whilst someone on the left will be catnip for the 2016 GOP voters. They’re in a bit of a catch 22.
    I know nothing about her but Gretchen Whitmer has had a very good result to win the governorship of Michigan fairly comfortably. A key state surrounded by other key states which swung 2016 Trump's way.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Tim_B said:

    Kemp appears to be claiming victory in GA. Not sure about this. Need to be cautious. Abrams not conceding until all ballots are counted.

    Surely Kemp already knows what he decided the final totals would be?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,068
    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    Kemp appears to be claiming victory in GA. Not sure about this. Need to be cautious. Abrams not conceding until all ballots are counted.

    Surely Kemp already knows what he decided the final totals would be?
    A Republican Governor from the Deep South who can count? That would be a rara avis.

    Have a good morning.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,944
    Beto could run for Texas Senate in 2020. Another 2 years of demographic change and a Presidential level turnout might be enough next time.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Ha, both my bets (Rep win House, Dem win Texas) failed. Ah well.

    How do you think I feel betting on 52 Rep seats and falling short?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,283

    I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    It does, however, look like the GOP will hold the senate for a long time to come. The Dems will be praying be Ginsburg and Breyer manage to soldier on for 2 years, as in the new Senate arithmetic Trump will be able to nominate anyone he likes to replace them.

    He could nominate anyone he liked in the old senate too.
  • Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666
    Tim_B said:

    IanB2 said:

    JenS said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Actually isn’t that the case in most countries for most of history? Democracy is not a natural state of affairs. The USA is still,broadly speaking, a democracy but it is not a fully functioning one. Not only does its much vaunted constitution not procure majority rule, there is also the serious problem that it does not have an independent judiciary. The normalisation of gerrymandering and vote rigging (through voter suppression) isn’t great either.
    A turnout of less than half and yet still people have to stand in line for hours to vote isn't a great look either.
    Isn't a great look?

    Were the things that we see in US elections to happen in an ex-colony in Africa we would be talking about stolen elections and economic sanctions. The frog has been boiled and the Republicans are getting away with it.
    Voting is very different here. In most countries you walk into a booth with a piece of paper, put an X next to one name, then drop it in a box. My ballot was 4 pages of 8.5 x 11 paper. It covers everything from state rep, state senator, county offices, soil conservation district officer, congressman, judges and on and on, plus any ballot initiatives. It's a lot of stuff. In my state you vote electronically via a touch screen computer. I've watched (and timed) people going to the voting machine and taking 10 to 15 minutes to complete the process.

    It may be cumbersome and inefficient but it's not boiling a frog
    Then why not have more voting machines and polling stations? It’s not as if the US is short on space.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    They will be fighting Trump in 2020.

    He was fighting Hilary Clinton, not Obama.
    I thought Trump was a goner in 2020. After these results (which I haven't had time to process fully) I think he looks good for re election.
    Although if he continues to tweet this kind of shit, the 25th comes back into play:


    Ben Stein implicitly suggesting Fox News is not a news media orginisation there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086

    It's not clear from these results how the Democrats go about selecting a candidate to beat Trump in 2020.

    Problem for them is that selecting a moderate won’t energise their base (against a very energised Trump base) whilst someone on the left will be catnip for the 2016 GOP voters. They’re in a bit of a catch 22.

    I haven’t been following closely, so what are the downsides of O’Rourke?

    Apart from anything else, youth and inexperience.
    I don't think he will be the nominee, even if he decides to run, which is by no means a given.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,753
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Texas 23 has been called for the GOP, despite the Democrat having more votes...

    It always seems bizarre that US elections are declared before the votes are all counted.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Many of the posts last night from the PB Trumptons and the PB Trump Rampers haven’t aged well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    Republicans did resistance at all cost against Obama and won the presidency at the end of it.
    They will be fighting Trump in 2020.

    He was fighting Hilary Clinton, not Obama.
    I thought Trump was a goner in 2020. After these results (which I haven't had time to process fully) I think he looks good for re election.
    Although if he continues to tweet this kind of shit, the 25th comes back into play...
    What do you mean, 'if' ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Texas 23 has been called for the GOP, despite the Democrat having more votes...

    It always seems bizarre that US elections are declared before the votes are all counted.
    Its surely because they are utterly incompetent at counting them. It often takes months after a Presidential election to get the official results.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Texas 23 has been called for the GOP, despite the Democrat having more votes...

    It always seems bizarre that US elections are declared before the votes are all counted.
    In a lot of states votes need to be counted in some fairly remote rural areas so you’d be waiting a long time if you waited for all the votes. Voting is so partisan in the US that it’s usually easy to predict the winner once about
    50% of the vote is in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Do we have provisional turnout figures for Mike's bet yet ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666
    Tim_B said:

    I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    It does, however, look like the GOP will hold the senate for a long time to come. The Dems will be praying be Ginsburg and Breyer manage to soldier on for 2 years, as in the new Senate arithmetic Trump will be able to nominate anyone he likes to replace them.

    He could nominate anyone he liked in the old senate too.
    You win on pedantry sir, though I think you know what I meant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Surely this is completely distorted by the California Senate position?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 21,964

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Until they grant a referendum and ask the voters whether they agree with the policy of the last 30 years?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Nigelb said:

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Do we have provisional turnout figures for Mike's bet yet ?
    I'm seeing projected figures between 47.5 and 49.5 from different sources.

    Someone who'd been screeching about massively high (for a midterm) turnout for weeks now looks pretty wise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,753
    Tim_B said:

    IanB2 said:

    JenS said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Actually isn’t that the case in most countries for most of history? Democracy is not a natural state of affairs. The USA is still,broadly speaking, a democracy but it is not a fully functioning one. Not only does its much vaunted constitution not procure majority rule, there is also the serious problem that it does not have an independent judiciary. The normalisation of gerrymandering and vote rigging (through voter suppression) isn’t great either.
    A turnout of less than half and yet still people have to stand in line for hours to vote isn't a great look either.
    Isn't a great look?

    Were the things that we see in US elections to happen in an ex-colony in Africa we would be talking about stolen elections and economic sanctions. The frog has been boiled and the Republicans are getting away with it.
    Voting is very different here. In most countries you walk into a booth with a piece of paper, put an X next to one name, then drop it in a box. My ballot was 4 pages of 8.5 x 11 paper. It covers everything from state rep, state senator, county offices, soil conservation district officer, congressman, judges and on and on, plus any ballot initiatives. It's a lot of stuff. In my state you vote electronically via a touch screen computer. I've watched (and timed) people going to the voting machine and taking 10 to 15 minutes to complete the process.

    It may be cumbersome and inefficient but it's not boiling a frog
    Strange how the long lines and lack of functioning machines are in Democrat voting areas though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Tim_B said:

    I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    It does, however, look like the GOP will hold the senate for a long time to come. The Dems will be praying be Ginsburg and Breyer manage to soldier on for 2 years, as in the new Senate arithmetic Trump will be able to nominate anyone he likes to replace them.

    He could nominate anyone he liked in the old senate too.
    But Flake and Collins would do a sad tweet about it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,229
    Charles said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Until they grant a referendum and ask the voters whether they agree with the policy of the last 30 years?
    A clever allusion to the UK referendum in which people rejected 30 years of Eurosceptic drift. ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,229
    “All the Brexiters are embarrassed about signing up to the backstop in December, none of them are lawyers and they didn’t really understand what was going on.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/41703908-e1d7-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee
  • I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    It does, however, look like the GOP will hold the senate for a long time to come. The Dems will be praying be Ginsburg and Breyer manage to soldier on for 2 years, as in the new Senate arithmetic Trump will be able to nominate anyone he likes to replace them.

    He’s got 2 years worth of campaign material on the “evil House Dems are obstructing me” narrative.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666
    DavidL said:

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Surely this is completely distorted by the California Senate position?
    Those figures are just based on the House vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219

    “All the Brexiters are embarrassed about signing up to the backstop in December, none of them are lawyers and they didn’t really understand what was going on.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/41703908-e1d7-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee

    They should have read PB then. A lot of people (including myself) expressed immediate reservations at the time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Do we have provisional turnout figures for Mike's bet yet ?
    I'm seeing projected figures between 47.5 and 49.5 from different sources.

    Someone who'd been screeching about massively high (for a midterm) turnout for weeks now looks pretty wise.
    OGH never screeches.
    :smile:
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666
    Looks like AZ Senate will not be declared until the weekend. Dems look to be in a decent position, only slightly behind with plenty of votes from Dem leaning areas still to come.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Hmmm, looking at where wins have come for the Dems I'm revising my. "Good for trump in 2020" view.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,523

    Looks like AZ Senate will not be declared until the weekend. Dems look to be in a decent position, only slightly behind with plenty of votes from Dem leaning areas still to come.

    Tester is in a not dissimiliar position in Montana with tonnes of Missoula votes to come.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,165
    edited November 2018

    I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    That's one way to read it, but the other is that the way Trump managed to get the votes exactly the right places isn't just dumb luck, and if he needs votes in PA again in 2020, he'll take the media narrative wherever he needs it to go so he can get votes in PA in 2020.
  • British politics and policing summed up.

    Stagger school leaving times to combat a series of murders.

    I mean, its not like they could target the gangs themselves, is it?
  • F1: markets up. Just having an idle browse.

    Why is Ricciardo 4 to not be classified? In the last 8 races he's had 4 DNFs (including a last gasp betting win last time out). I hadn't intended to back anything but that's just wrong. He's had 8/19 in the season as a whole.

    Alonso is 2.75 for a DNF. He's had 7/19 season DNFs. (Less sure of the recent total, though he's had a few due to others/debris hitting his car).

    Anyway, worth considering backing Ricciardo.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,681
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Do we have provisional turnout figures for Mike's bet yet ?
    I'm seeing projected figures between 47.5 and 49.5 from different sources.

    Someone who'd been screeching about massively high (for a midterm) turnout for weeks now looks pretty wise.
    OGH never screeches.
    :smile:
    I DID!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,548
    edited November 2018
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently Texas 23 has been called for the GOP, despite the Democrat having more votes...

    It always seems bizarre that US elections are declared before the votes are all counted.
    They are projected by the networks etc - not declared officially as that process can take several weeks as all absentee and provisional ballots aren't always counted on the night. As in this country you could project at least half of the house seats before a single vote is cast - because they are safe Republican or Democrat (vs safe Labour or Tory).

    Of course in close races the projections can go wrong!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Has there been any update on projected vote shares from this?

    Do we have provisional turnout figures for Mike's bet yet ?
    I'm seeing projected figures between 47.5 and 49.5 from different sources.

    Someone who'd been screeching about massively high (for a midterm) turnout for weeks now looks pretty wise.
    OGH never screeches.
    :smile:
    I DID!
    Just winding you up.
    For the record, I was in agreement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,219

    Looks like AZ Senate will not be declared until the weekend. Dems look to be in a decent position, only slightly behind with plenty of votes from Dem leaning areas still to come.

    It's looking really close. Btw the county names are great: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    British politics and policing summed up.

    Stagger school leaving times to combat a series of murders.

    I mean, its not like they could target the gangs themselves, is it?

    If operational changes like that can make something better it doesn’t stop other work been done.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,666

    I’m not sure why everyone is saying these results bode well for Trump in 2020. The Dems have surged in PA and in the mid-west. If they win those states in 2020 then Trump is gone.

    That's one way to read it, but the other is that the way Trump managed to get the votes exactly the right places isn't just dumb luck, and if he needs votes in PA again in 2020, he'll take the media narrative wherever he needs it to go so he can get votes in PA in 2020.
    Well, one would hope the Dems won’t make the mistake of assuming the mid-west is in the bag in 2020 like they did 2 years ago.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,287
    Good morning all.

    Interesting results from the US - all to play for in 2020 in my opinion. Decent night betting wise for me - wish I has stayed up and really took advantage!

    @Big_G - hope you and wife get better!

    @Casino_Royale - congrats on your exciting news!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,035
    edited November 2018
    Based on what I can see of last night's results, Trump would probably lose against a generic Democrat challenger if the vote were held today, but it would be close. Republicans are winning where they ought to be winning and Democrats where they should be winning. Trump's problem is that if he is losing votes in states like Pennsylvania that he won last time on tiny margins, he needs to make up for it by gaining voters and states that went Hilary last time. It's not clear where these are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,523
    CNN's numbers are ahead of New York Times, but their information is nowhere near as good.
  • Morning all.

    The Senate results can only be described as very poor for the Dems, certainly compared with expectations. At the start of the campaigns they thought they had a reasonable chance of a majority. Mislaying FL in particular is not good, and in most of the other battlegrounds they've gone backwards. What will worry them most is that the hill they have to climb to win back control in 2020 now looks really daunting: they needed to gain seats, not lose them, this time round.

    They'll obviously take some comfort from the House results, but this far from being a 'blue wave'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,753
    You should have seen the one that got away!

    Though my favourite is the cabinet comparing themselves to drunks on a plane with unknown destination:

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,523

    Morning all.

    The Senate results can only be described as very poor for the Dems, certainly compared with expectations. At the start of the campaigns they thought they had a reasonable chance of a majority. Mislaying FL in particular is not good, and in most of the other battlegrounds they've gone backwards. What will worry them most is that the hill they have to climb to win back control in 2020 now looks really daunting: they needed to gain seats, not lose them, this time round.

    They'll obviously take some comfort from the House results, but this far from being a 'blue wave'.

    Florida is particularly bad, many of the Senate seats are sui generis (WV). FL is not.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,548
    DavidL said:

    Looks like AZ Senate will not be declared until the weekend. Dems look to be in a decent position, only slightly behind with plenty of votes from Dem leaning areas still to come.

    It's looking really close. Btw the county names are great: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/
    Yes - some interesting county names there - Coconino, Apache, Navajo, Pinal and Yavapaii. I also love the candidates names - Sinema and McSally!

    The NYT estimates that the Republican McSally should just edge it however based on the updated tallies - but its close and could still go to Sinema.


    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-arizona-elections.html
  • FishingFishing Posts: 404

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    In the words of Dick Cheney: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter.
    Perhaps the only thing that Paul Krugman and Dick Cheney agree on?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,548
    notme said:

    British politics and policing summed up.

    Stagger school leaving times to combat a series of murders.

    I mean, its not like they could target the gangs themselves, is it?

    If operational changes like that can make something better it doesn’t stop other work been done.
    How about following the EU's new plan to keep us on BST all year round from next year (i.e. ending clock changes) - so we no longer change the clocks twice a year. Kids could go home in the daylight through the winter months - which would on the evidence reduce accident deaths and perhaps crime.

    Los of things you could do without addressing the real causes.
  • Mr. B, just barbaric. Not like those civilised Romans, nailing people to large bits of wood.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,523
    Sinema's problem is that the remaining vote is very evenly split:

    We think about 870,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Kyrsten Sinema leads in that vote by about 746 votes, based on what we know about those counties and the votes counted so far.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,944
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    In the words of Dick Cheney: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter.
    Perhaps the only thing that Paul Krugman and Dick Cheney agree on?
    Nope - Krugman thinks deficits do matter when the economy is near full employment:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/09/opinion/deficits-matter-again.html
  • Looks pretty good for Trump in 2020, he has this great skill of winning where he needs to. Tactically he placed his rallies very well. Losing the House was on the cards the Democrats could target the message to suit the ward and they used that pretty well. I expect the Dem's will go too left wing for the next leader and Trump wins even more comfortably in 2020. O'Rourke not a chance of making president.
This discussion has been closed.