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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The restoration of Florida felons voting rights could tip the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited November 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The restoration of Florida felons voting rights could tip the balance at WH2020

We all know how Florida can have a huge impact on presidential elections and that it is always a tight race there. Overnight the incumbent Democratic Senator was ousted and replaced by a Republican winning by a very small margin.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,659
    First! (By fluke)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    edited November 7
    Second. A historic win for me. Not since President Kennedy, etc, etc,
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,418
    Hanging chad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,659
    If we assume that 40% of these people exercise their right to vote in 2020, and that they break 75:25 to the Democrats, then it adds just under 300,000 Democrat votes net. That would probably have changed the Senate race yesterday.

    However, are we sure that the Democrats will continue to be the party of felons? Perhaps the Republicans will capture that demographic going forward.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,838
    rcs1000 said:

    If we assume that 40% of these people exercise their right to vote in 2020, and that they break 75:25 to the Democrats, then it adds just under 300,000 Democrat votes net. That would probably have changed the Senate race yesterday.

    However, are we sure that the Democrats will continue to be the party of felons? Perhaps the Republicans will capture that demographic going forward.

    I wonder if that turnout might be optimistic? Presumably the demographics who are more likely to have committed felonies have low turnout, and I seem to recall that former felons in other states have lower turnout than otherwise similar groups. Can't remember the source on that.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 854
    Estimate of effect here:
    https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida
    "Had all ex-felons been eligible to vote in Florida in 2016, we estimate that this would have generated about 102,000 additional votes for Democrats and about 54,000 additional votes for Republicans, with about an additional 40,000 votes that could be cast on behalf of either party."
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,737
    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Florida felons are the new mondeo man....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    Not a final one. Absentee ballots are counted if they have yesterday's postmark in places, eg California. Will be days before an official figure.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565
    dixiedean said:

    Second. A historic win for me. Not since President Kennedy, etc, etc,

    Bravo!

    Someone finally using the normally tiresome first/second meme to actual comic effect!

    Congratulations on coming very close to a complete victory.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,838

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    No, doesn't California take a week or whatever to count? I seem to recall from 2016 that the Clinton popular vote lead took ages to fully accumulate.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565
    Talking of Americanisms...

    There's a US spelling alert in the second line of the third paragraph @MikeSmithson
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 2,565
    Cue slightly off colour jokes from Goppers about felons stealing the election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    Quincel said:

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    No, doesn't California take a week or whatever to count? I seem to recall from 2016 that the Clinton popular vote lead took ages to fully accumulate.
    This Vox article explains why, if you scroll down it.
    https://www.vox.com/midterm-elections/2018/11/7/18049518/voter-turnout-2018-midterm-elections-results
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    rcs1000 said:

    If we assume that 40% of these people exercise their right to vote in 2020, and that they break 75:25 to the Democrats, then it adds just under 300,000 Democrat votes net. That would probably have changed the Senate race yesterday.

    However, are we sure that the Democrats will continue to be the party of felons? Perhaps the Republicans will capture that demographic going forward.

    Ex felons, as I keep pointing out.
    The party of felons is likely lead by one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,203
    Of course the Republicans remain in control of redistricting, and supervision of elections, so the net effect for 2020 congressional elections might well be a wash. Florida remains perhaps the key swing state for the Presidency.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,838
    edited November 7
    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    No, doesn't California take a week or whatever to count? I seem to recall from 2016 that the Clinton popular vote lead took ages to fully accumulate.
    This Vox article explains why, if you scroll down it.
    https://www.vox.com/midterm-elections/2018/11/7/18049518/voter-turnout-2018-midterm-elections-results
    Cheers
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    Quincel said:

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    No, doesn't California take a week or whatever to count? I seem to recall from 2016 that the Clinton popular vote lead took ages to fully accumulate.
    Los Angeles county is one of the worst offenders. Also "100%" precincts still yielding extra votes...

    Can anyone explain to me how the New York Times (Which I find excellent for it's numbers) has 546,000 votes out for Arizona but the precincts are 1478/1489.
    Also are these remaining votes likely to be of the same flavour as those already in.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,791
    Anazina said:

    Talking of Americanisms...

    There's a US spelling alert in the second line of the third paragraph @MikeSmithson

    It's a US-related article :)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Quincel said:

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    No, doesn't California take a week or whatever to count? I seem to recall from 2016 that the Clinton popular vote lead took ages to fully accumulate.
    Which allowed me to recover some of my losses as Clinton popular vote win was absurdly long given the totals.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,369
    Can I nominate that as a fairly early contender for the most epic self-awareness fail of the 21st century?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,418
    ydoethur said:

    Can I nominate that as a fairly early contender for the most epic self-awareness fail of the 21st century?
    The best bit of that presser was when Trump claimed to have done more for Israel than anyone ever!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 7
    ydoethur said:

    Can I nominate that as a fairly early contender for the most epic self-awareness fail of the 21st century?
    It reminds me of a scene from inbetweeners when they approach a drug dealer and ask him if he will sell them drugs, to which he replies

    “racist, bloody racists”

    “but you do sell drugs?”

    “Well yes, but that’s not the point...just because you saw a black guy you thought he must be a drug dealer”

    “But we just saw you deal to that other guy”

    “Scratch the surface and you are racists”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 46,844
    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    Has anybody seen an overall turnout figure for yesterday?

    No, doesn't California take a week or whatever to count? I seem to recall from 2016 that the Clinton popular vote lead took ages to fully accumulate.
    Which allowed me to recover some of my losses as Clinton popular vote win was absurdly long given the totals.
    I think I had 14 grand on that at one point, Clinton was ahead and it was just the west coast left. Perhaps the most secure 1.01 -> 1.03 ever.
    Even more than Macron-Le Pen !
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734
    Jeff Sessions resigns.
  • Oooh.

    Ladbrokes could be forced to pay out on hundreds of bets which were turned down by its trading team if the Independent Betting Arbitration Service (Ibas) finds against the firm in three near-identical disputes over bets which are currently being considered by its adjudicators.

    The three cases concern requests to place online bets which were referred to Ladbrokes’ traders for approval. An increasing number of punters on racing and other sports are familiar with this practice, and such bets are often either declined or re-offered, either at reduced odds or at a reduced stake that can be as little as 10 pence.

    In the cases being considered by Ibas, the requested bets on horse races were declined. However, in each case, the customer attempting to place the bet claims to have received an official “bet number”, which they took as an indication that the bet had been accepted.

    After the races, when it became clear their bets had in fact been declined, the punters claim they were described as “cancelled bets”, which suggests that their money could have been accepted at some point in the process.

    The timescale involved when a case is considered by the arbitration service suggests Ladbrokes could, or should, have been aware of a possible problem with the processing of declined bets for several months, but the bookmaker has failed to address the issue. There is also anecdotal evidence that the cases currently being considered by Ibas may be the tip of the iceberg.


    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/nov/07/ladbrokes-may-be-forced-to-pay-out-on-hundreds-of-cancelled-bets
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 69,764
    edited November 7
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    dixiedean said:

    Jeff Sessions resigns.

    Huge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Jeff sessions gone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 22,501
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can I nominate that as a fairly early contender for the most epic self-awareness fail of the 21st century?
    The best bit of that presser was when Trump claimed to have done more for Israel than anyone ever!
    This is also up there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 7
    Does this explain grumpy trump this afternoon?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,659
    Hmm, so Trump is starting to bang the Trumpcare drum and work with the Dems on healthcare.

    He's clearing the way for 2020 today.
  • Does this explain grumpy trump this afternoon?

    Yes, he wanted Sessions to reverse his recusal, and Sessions refused.

    This is uuuuggee
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,535
    Not surprised by this, for all his twitter talk, Trump seemed pretty unhappy today at the press conference. Not the mood of a man who is happy with the election results.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 854
    I wonder if the reports of Donald Trump jr being about to be indicted were a red line.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    House of cards really looks very dull in comparison to the real life drama playing out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,425
    Trump has until 3rd January to get Mueller out and all necessary pardons issued.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690

    Trump has until 3rd January to get Mueller out and all necessary pardons issued.

    Why’s that?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246

    Trump has until 3rd January to get Mueller out and all necessary pardons issued.

    As far as I can tell they can basically shut it all down right now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Following on from discussion of how massive elite sportsmen are these days, but doesn’t apply to football. Man City only have 2 outfield player 6ft or over in their starting lineup tonight.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 818
    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,326
    Weird things happening on the BF Arizona Senate race market. Democrat suddenly shot from 3 to 7.5 and then back in to 5. All in what looks like a dead heat. Anybody know what's going on?.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,791
    I like John Sessions, I think he was brilliant in "Whose Line Is It Anyway?"
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,168
    On the basis of House votes, Democrats would've won the White House quite convincingly:

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,718
    For the first time in years, I'll watch Question Time.

  • Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    Sessions had recused himself from interfering with the Russia investigation.

    A new Attorney General would be able to close the Russia investigation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,659

    Trump has until 3rd January to get Mueller out and all necessary pardons issued.

    Why’s that?
    Because that's when the new House sits. Until then, the old one is still in session.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,223

    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    If Trump wants Mueller fired or constraints put on his investigation, he can't do it himself, he has to tell the AG to do it. Sessions recused himself from control over the Mueller investigation, which means Trump would have to tell Deputy AG Ron Rosenstein to fire or restrain Mueller. Everyone knows Rosenstein would refuse to do so, and would rather resign in protest which will cause a huge storm of controversy and possibly even have Republicans support impeachment. With Sessions out, Trump can put in a more biddable AG, and indeed the acting AG he's just appointed has previously said the Mueller investigation should be restrained.

    That said, I've never been quite clear why Sessions/Rosenstein were seen as a firewall and that things would change materially if they went. As head of the Executive, ultimately Trump could fire whoever he wants.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246

    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    Sessions reused himself from the Russian collusion investigation.

    Trump wants the Russia investigation stopped.

    As Sessions reused himself he could not do that.

    As he has now resigned his replacement can do that. His replacement has recently written an oped saying the Russia Collusion investigation should be heavily curtailed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Essexit said:

    For the first time in years, I'll watch Question Time.

    They missed out lobster fetishest from that list.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,551

    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    Sessions refused to get involved or attempt to curtail Mueller’s investigation. Now Trump can appoint a stooges in his place that will likely try to shut the investigation down. Of course, that will play terribly electorally which is why he waited the day after the election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Man City just been awarded the worst penalty ever...sterling kicked the ground and tripped himself up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,659
    Essexit said:

    For the first time in years, I'll watch Question Time.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7d2e6802-6040-11e8-ad91-e01af256df68

    Lunch with the FT:
    Jordan Peterson: ‘One thing I’m not is naive’
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Scott_P said:
    Well to be fair he did for 10 seasons on the apprentice...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,425
    It still beggars belief that our Buccaneers are so admiring of Trump and would happily tie the UK to him.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,191

    It still beggars belief that our Buccaneers are so admiring of Trump and would happily tie the UK to him.

    You think Trump will win in 2020?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326
    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Sessions was absolutely craven to resign.

    Should have made Trump fire him.
  • I've known hookers that don't go down that easily.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246
    Has been pointed out to me that the appeal for whether the President needs to respect a subpoena was close. Documents to be filed on Wednesday hearings on the 14th of December.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 818
    Thanks everyone!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    sessions getting the heave ho is nothing to do with mueller, clearly he was obstructing the valuable work of Q....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,425
    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    It’s not so much laziness. Language is a huge barrier. How many hacks speak and read Chinese? We have an actual PRC citizen working for us in our HK office and the stories she gets are unbelievable. They put us miles ahead of everyone else - and earns a fortune. But she’s doing B2B. She just couldn’t get the stories you can get out of the US. She’d be banned for starters.

  • If he's made Sessions quit surely Rosenstein is also in the firing line?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 34,255
    Alistair said:

    Sessions was absolutely craven to resign.

    Should have made Trump fire him.

    I've never quite understood why so many people are willing to resign when they are clearly being fired. I get there can be consequences to standing their ground and making the boss formally fire them, particularly politically, but that's not always going to be the case and it doesn't fool anyone anyway, it just makes the media reporting more unintentionally hilarious as they have to avoid the word sacked. From the last time someone was 'asked to resign' that seems to be the level where the media are comfortable to call it a sacking though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,111
    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    The media here was hoping, wishing, praying for Trump to be given a boot to the bollocks.
  • Am shocked, Macron, the President of France, wants to honour a collaborator.

    Macron's plan to pay tribute to Nazi collaborator Pétain stirs anger. Marshal Pétain was a first world war hero, but later disgraced as head of Vichy France

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/07/nazi-collaborator-phillipe-petain-world-war-stirs-anger
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,037
    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    Agreed, the BBC’s coverage of Chinese elections isn’t up to much.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,491

    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    Trump can appoint a replacement that will fire/replace/starve the special counsel.

    To be blunt Trump is doing this to cover up his crimes. In a just world Donald Trump would die in prison.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,246

    If he's made Sessions quit surely Rosenstein is also in the firing line?

    Rosenstein is now irrelevant. Rosenstein only annoyed trump as hew was in charge of Mueller
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    glw said:

    Can someone explain the significance of Sessions resigning please?

    Trump can appoint a replacement that will fire/replace/starve the special counsel.

    To be blunt Trump is doing this to cover up his crimes. In a just world Donald Trump would die in prison.
    Alleged crimes...
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326

    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    It’s not so much laziness. Language is a huge barrier. How many hacks speak and read Chinese? We have an actual PRC citizen working for us in our HK office and the stories she gets are unbelievable. They put us miles ahead of everyone else - and earns a fortune. But she’s doing B2B. She just couldn’t get the stories you can get out of the US. She’d be banned for starters.

    Then it's laziness, they should learn Chinese.

    I went to Shanghai for the first time late last year. My god, the sense of the coming power is incredible. I know China has serious problems with demographics, pollution, etc, but it is undeniably the most interesting story in geopolitics, and destined to be the next number 1 superpower (for a while, until India or the Martians inevitably take over etc)

    How many Chinese stories do we get on British TV news? One a week? It is insanely biassed and NOT properly informative.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,491

    If he's made Sessions quit surely Rosenstein is also in the firing line?

    No the new guy can simply replace Rosenstein, but I think Rosenstein may resign in protest if that happens.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,268
    matt said:

    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    Agreed, the BBC’s coverage of Chinese elections isn’t up to much.
    I don’t know. Curtis was predicting that the Communists would hold Beijing Southwest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,734

    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    It’s not so much laziness. Language is a huge barrier. How many hacks speak and read Chinese? We have an actual PRC citizen working for us in our HK office and the stories she gets are unbelievable. They put us miles ahead of everyone else - and earns a fortune. But she’s doing B2B. She just couldn’t get the stories you can get out of the US. She’d be banned for starters.

    Yep. I lived there 7 years, and have the equivalent of 2 years University Chinese. Can I read a newspaper? Not really. Could I write a paragraph? Not above Primary School level. Compare with any European language, or any with a phonetic alphabet TBH.
    Learning Chinese is a long-term proposition.
  • Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.

    I've not watched season 5 yet, should I binge watch them?

    I've got another five and a half months of gardening leave to use up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,268
    The Chinese election swingometer rusted solid years ago.
  • Scott_P said:
    Check the date, Graham's on Team Trump now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 7

    Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.

    I've not watched season 5 yet, should I binge watch them?

    I've got another five and a half months of gardening leave to use up.
    I guess so...given you ain’t much else going on. Season 6 is terrible, season 5 no where near as good as the first 2 or 3.

    You could go on a manhole cover tour instead....
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326
    matt said:

    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    Agreed, the BBC’s coverage of Chinese elections isn’t up to much.
    Sure, China is a non democracy. Indeed it is heading AWAY from democracy. But isn't that in itself a way more interesting and important story than some dumb twat winning the deputy governorship of New Dakota North (district 9)?

    China is tumultuous and huge and is THE biggest trading nation on the planet. Soon it will be the biggest economy (if it isn't already - choose your measurement). Brits who rely on British TV news are spectacularly ill-informed on these issues. It's just shoddy. Lazy. Wanky.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    Even CNN would struggle to spin out a Chinese election exit poll into 3hrs of news coverage.
  • Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.

    I've not watched season 5 yet, should I binge watch them?

    I've got another five and a half months of gardening leave to use up.
    I guess so...given you ain’t much else going on. Season 6 is terrible, season 5 no where near as good as the first 2 or 3.

    You could go on a manhole cover tour instead....
    If anyone could recommend any stuff to binge watch I'd be grateful.

    I've got access to Sky, Netflix, and Amazon Prime.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,425
    edited November 7
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I know this is a political betting website, so it's bound to be geeky, and obsessed with obscure elections overseas like no one else. but I am buggered if I know why these elex have totally obsessed British media.

    Sure Trump is box office, and interesting. Yes, it will have some impact on us (er, somehow)

    But the fact is America is an ever diminishing power in a multipolar world. On many metrics, China is already much more important, on GDP PPP China is already the world's biggest economy. It will only get bigger and America (relatively smaller) for the foreseeable future.

    How much news do we hear from China? Fuck all. Yet British journalists act like it is 1960 or even 1990 and America bestrides the world, and whatever it does must make us all tremble. It's bullshit.

    I blame lazy hacks, personally.

    It’s not so much laziness. Language is a huge barrier. How many hacks speak and read Chinese? We have an actual PRC citizen working for us in our HK office and the stories she gets are unbelievable. They put us miles ahead of everyone else - and earns a fortune. But she’s doing B2B. She just couldn’t get the stories you can get out of the US. She’d be banned for starters.

    Then it's laziness, they should learn Chinese.

    I went to Shanghai for the first time late last year. My god, the sense of the coming power is incredible. I know China has serious problems with demographics, pollution, etc, but it is undeniably the most interesting story in geopolitics, and destined to be the next number 1 superpower (for a while, until India or the Martians inevitably take over etc)

    How many Chinese stories do we get on British TV news? One a week? It is insanely biassed and NOT properly informative.

    You need to learn Chinese first. Right now western Chinese speakers earn shedloads doing other stuff. I have been to Shanghai a few times. The endless procession of huge boats up and down the river is hypnotic and also an immensely powerful symbol of what you talk about. I’m back there again next month for a few days.

    As a journalist there, though, it’s very tough. You do need the language; then you need to make the contacts. For a non-Chinese that is incredibly hard. If you manage it and start getting uncomfortable stories the chances are you’ll be expelled. The best approach would be to use a team of local stringers and manage them discretely - the challenge there, though, is training people who have grown up in a culture and system where questioning authority is strongly discouraged.

    That’s no excuse, of course, and in time coverage will improve. But I suspect it’s a next generation thing.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,690
    edited November 7

    Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.

    I've not watched season 5 yet, should I binge watch them?

    I've got another five and a half months of gardening leave to use up.
    I guess so...given you ain’t much else going on. Season 6 is terrible, season 5 no where near as good as the first 2 or 3.

    You could go on a manhole cover tour instead....
    If anyone could recommend any stuff to binge watch I'd be grateful.

    I've got access to Sky, Netflix, and Amazon Prime.
    Ozark.
  • Even CNN would struggle to spin out a Chinese election exit poll into 3hrs of news coverage.

    Chinese whispers would be fun before the results/exit poll.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,326

    Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.

    I've not watched season 5 yet, should I binge watch them?

    I've got another five and a half months of gardening leave to use up.
    I guess so...given you ain’t much else going on. Season 6 is terrible, season 5 no where near as good as the first 2 or 3.

    You could go on a manhole cover tour instead....
    FFS how disappointing is the Haunting of Hill House? I heard this was a Netflix masterpiece, up there with The Killling (Danish version, series 1)

    It's just dreary and meh. Like Eastenders with feeble ghostly effects

    Does anyone have any drama recommendations, or have we finally reached the end of the golden age of TV? I speak as someone flying out to Thailand then Sri Lanka tomorrow, for almost 3 weeks.

    I need to download! And my iPad is empty.
  • Given the real life going’s on, for those who haven’t seen season 6 of house of cards ...it is going to seem very tame in comparison.

    I've not watched season 5 yet, should I binge watch them?

    I've got another five and a half months of gardening leave to use up.
    I guess so...given you ain’t much else going on. Season 6 is terrible, season 5 no where near as good as the first 2 or 3.

    You could go on a manhole cover tour instead....
    If anyone could recommend any stuff to binge watch I'd be grateful.

    I've got access to Sky, Netflix, and Amazon Prime.
    Ozark.
    Ta
This discussion has been closed.