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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited November 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does the public now back Remain?

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look into the implications of this week’s mid-terms in the US and dissect data from Survation and Chris Hanretty suggesting that Brits would vote Remain if there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,684
    First.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,425
    Not first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    Third as in rate, like most uk politicians....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 747
    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    To answer you reply to me on the previous thread about Rotterdam. As I understand it if goods from the RoW are cleared in Rotterdam and then put on a lorry to the UK via Dover that is classed as a Dutch export to the UK.
    For example the UK exports Oranges and other tropical fruit to the EU.

    https://www.pma.com/~/media/pma-files/research-and-development/unitedkingdom.pdf?la=en
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    Wow. I see the Leavers have now got the port of Dover in the cross hairs, ready to denounce it as a saboteur presumably when Brexit turns out to be sub-optimal. And only eighteen months ago they were building huge effigies of Theresa on its white cliffs as proof of the nation's resilience and pride. How quickly fortunes change.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,466
    6th like DA ranking on QT out of 6
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,738
    Above them, expensive, shiny as a rich boy's bike,
    Aeroplanes drone through the new European air
    On the edge of a sky that makes England of minor importance;
    And tides warn bronzing bathers of a cooling star
    With half its history done.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,684

    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    To answer you reply to me on the previous thread about Rotterdam. As I understand it if goods from the RoW are cleared in Rotterdam and then put on a lorry to the UK via Dover that is classed as a Dutch export to the UK.
    For example the UK exports Oranges and other tropical fruit to the EU.

    https://www.pma.com/~/media/pma-files/research-and-development/unitedkingdom.pdf?la=en
    If I export to Equatorial Guinea and my container goes by road to Rotterdam and then by sea to Africa, then as I am the exporting firm, I am reasonable for filling out the various forms, and the ultimatum destination is listed as Equatorial Guinea. When the UK calculates its exports, I assume it tallies off the various forms (C1602, etc).

    The other issue is that Rotterdam is the European (and African) hub for oil, petrol and petrochemicals. So, Shell will buy oil at its Rotterdam hub and then sell into the UK. This is the major reason for the over representation of the Netherlands as a trading partner.
  • sladeslade Posts: 634
    Labour hold Harlow, Netteswell.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 388
    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 6,122
    Jonathan said:

    Not first.

    Lets keep voting until you are
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,684
    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    I did, and I emailed her, but it bounced :(
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,455
    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    Please share. I know a woman who might be her in real life.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,455
    slade said:

    Labour hold Harlow, Netteswell.


    UKIP vote held up well.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 388

    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    Please share. I know a woman who might be her in real life.
    http://plato-says.blogspot.com/

    It is dormant though. The only reason for mentioning it was that it showed what she had been viewing which included this site most days.
  • Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.
  • sladeslade Posts: 634
    Con hold in Devon- as the Mayor of Holsworthy he held off a challenge from a former Mayor standing as an Independent.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 747
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    To answer you reply to me on the previous thread about Rotterdam. As I understand it if goods from the RoW are cleared in Rotterdam and then put on a lorry to the UK via Dover that is classed as a Dutch export to the UK.
    For example the UK exports Oranges and other tropical fruit to the EU.

    https://www.pma.com/~/media/pma-files/research-and-development/unitedkingdom.pdf?la=en
    If I export to Equatorial Guinea and my container goes by road to Rotterdam and then by sea to Africa, then as I am the exporting firm, I am reasonable for filling out the various forms, and the ultimatum destination is listed as Equatorial Guinea. When the UK calculates its exports, I assume it tallies off the various forms (C1602, etc).

    The other issue is that Rotterdam is the European (and African) hub for oil, petrol and petrochemicals. So, Shell will buy oil at its Rotterdam hub and then sell into the UK. This is the major reason for the over representation of the Netherlands as a trading partner.
    I think you are saying when you use the "I" that you are in the UK, in which case you are in the single market CU, so correct. But if you were outside the EU as a third country then the goods have to be imported to the EU first (EU rules state that you must have an importer) and then exported to where ever. Hence in the trade stats country is an importer of goods and then an exporter.
    I used Oranges as an example because it is obvious we do not grow them, but you can also look at Belgium's car exports. Via Zebrugge they import lots of cars from the far east and them export to the rest of the EU and the number is multiples of their manufacturing car capacity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    edited November 8
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    Please share. I know a woman who might be her in real life.
    http://plato-says.blogspot.com/

    It is dormant though. The only reason for mentioning it was that it showed what she had been viewing which included this site most days.
    Is that not just an automated thing, rather than an actual indictation of a blog being read? As in the same feed, it has "recent reads" to other blogs that haven't updated for 1+ year.
  • sladeslade Posts: 634
    Labour hold in Harlow,Bush Fair.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Husker Du have reformed?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,684

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    To answer you reply to me on the previous thread about Rotterdam. As I understand it if goods from the RoW are cleared in Rotterdam and then put on a lorry to the UK via Dover that is classed as a Dutch export to the UK.
    For example the UK exports Oranges and other tropical fruit to the EU.

    https://www.pma.com/~/media/pma-files/research-and-development/unitedkingdom.pdf?la=en
    If I export to Equatorial Guinea and my container goes by road to Rotterdam and then by sea to Africa, then as I am the exporting firm, I am reasonable for filling out the various forms, and the ultimatum destination is listed as Equatorial Guinea. When the UK calculates its exports, I assume it tallies off the various forms (C1602, etc).

    The other issue is that Rotterdam is the European (and African) hub for oil, petrol and petrochemicals. So, Shell will buy oil at its Rotterdam hub and then sell into the UK. This is the major reason for the over representation of the Netherlands as a trading partner.
    I think you are saying when you use the "I" that you are in the UK, in which case you are in the single market CU, so correct. But if you were outside the EU as a third country then the goods have to be imported to the EU first (EU rules state that you must have an importer) and then exported to where ever. Hence in the trade stats country is an importer of goods and then an exporter.
    I used Oranges as an example because it is obvious we do not grow them, but you can also look at Belgium's car exports. Via Zebrugge they import lots of cars from the far east and them export to the rest of the EU and the number is multiples of their manufacturing car capacity.
    Excuse typos, as I'm on my phone, but aren't a lot of fresh fruit and vegetables bought by traders such as Cargill and ADM, and then sold to end customers in the UK and otherwise. So, if I buy oranges then my counterparty is highly likely to be a Dutch domiciled firm.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    edited November 8

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    The White House has shared digitally manipulated footage of a CNN reporter's interaction with an intern, according to an expert consulted by The Telegraph.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/08/white-house-accused-editing-footage-cnn-reporter-video-experts/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    Police are to get enhanced powers to stop and search suspects in an attempt to combat the surge in violent crime and knife attacks, Sajid Javid has revealed.

    The Home Secretary said he wanted police to be more confident to use stop and search, sweep away bureaucracy and make it easier to deploy powers that senior officers say are vital in the fight against crime.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/08/sajid-javid-says-police-get-new-stop-search-powers-combat-rising/
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,455
    Foxy said:

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Husker Du have reformed?
    diego brown and the good fairy?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,243

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Oooh....temptation.
  • Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.
    Mine..... TSEs would be sigue sigue sputnik I'd imagine...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739

    The White House has shared digitally manipulated footage of a CNN reporter's interaction with an intern, according to an expert consulted by The Telegraph.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/08/white-house-accused-editing-footage-cnn-reporter-video-experts/

    Apparently the video comes from Joseph Paul Watson.
  • Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Oooh....temptation.
    Maybe... I've forgotten..
  • Foxy said:

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Husker Du have reformed?
    Is that Northern for sneeze?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,760
    edited November 9
    AZ have just updated their numbers, adding about 100K new ballots... Sinema now a nose ahead:

    Sinema 48.91%
    McSally 48.80%

    https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
  • sladeslade Posts: 634
    Lab hold in Ealing, Dormer Wells - a Sikh shut-out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,828

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    New Order are in my Top 5 80s bands, after Depeche Mode, Queen, Duran Duran and Human League
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167

    Foxy said:

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Husker Du have reformed?
    Is that Northern for sneeze?
    Danish for "Do you remember?" I think.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,243

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.
    Mine..... TSEs would be sigue sigue sputnik I'd imagine...
    I was stood next to Martin Degville's mum at SSS's first concert in Brum..... She was ever so proud. (I also saw your fave band in Brum - at the Tower Ballroom, 9th May 1983. James were the support.....)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 19,760
    edited November 9
    LOL, the Arizona 'precincts reporting' figure has dropped back from 99% to 50%!

    Edit: Back up to 99%
  • Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    New Order are in my Top 5 80s bands, after Depeche Mode, Queen, Duran Duran and Human League
    After........... .....

    :(
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,828
    edited November 9

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    New Order are in my Top 5 80s bands, after Depeche Mode, Queen, Duran Duran and Human League
    After........... .....

    :(
    You just can't believe me when I show you what you cannot see!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167
    Well worth reading the whole thread, there are other examples...

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,828
    Foxy said:

    Well worth reading the whole thread, there are other examples...

    Is that Nicola???
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    edited November 9
    Illegal migrants entering through the southern US border will no longer be eligible for asylum under a new rule, the Trump administration has said.

    Announced by the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security, the ruling would stop asylum for those who breach any presidential restriction on entry.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46147137

    Looks like the Supreme Court will be busy...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,063

    LOL, the Arizona 'precincts reporting' figure has dropped back from 99% to 50%!

    Edit: Back up to 99%

    Scott's lead in Florida is down to 15,000 too. It was 30,000 when the race was called iirc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,167

    Foxy said:

    Well worth reading the whole thread, there are other examples...

    Is that Nicola???
    Theresa, I think. A remarkable likeness, shall we crowd fund it for Mr Nabavi?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,063
    Sinema now 9000 ahead
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 27,828
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Well worth reading the whole thread, there are other examples...

    Is that Nicola???
    Theresa, I think. A remarkable likeness, shall we crowd fund it for Mr Nabavi?
    I think it looks more like Nicola!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,739
    edited November 9
    The Acosta affair: An unpopular opinion - Emily Maitlis

    I'll say that again. He was called on by Donald Trump to ask whatever question he liked. And when he'd finished asking one, he then asked another - with interruption follow-ups in between.

    It was only when he attempted his third question - or possibly fourth depending on how you define the follow-ups - that the president got angry and asked him to sit down....

    So let's take a step back. What happened in that room was not the ultimate fight for press freedom. This wasn't someone risking life and limb against a regime where freedom of speech is forbidden. This was a bloke sitting in a room full of colleagues who were all trying to ask questions too.

    This was a man who'd had his turn and had been told he couldn't hog the whole time.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/46147166

    Having now seen the whole thing, I think she is right.

    He was super super rude, and came across as very unprofessional. It wasn't so much questions as stating his opinions on issues.

    Now of course Trump is a total arse, but ACosta has form. Apparently when Trump / Kim Jong Un were meeting and signing something, he started screaming out about prisoners etc when it wasn't Q/A time.

    If every journalist starts doing this at every press conference, it is just going to be total chaos.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329
    Foxy said:

    Well worth reading the whole thread, there are other examples...

    We need a GoFundMe so we can get this into Big G's living room.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 5,943

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Oooh....temptation.
    No, that's Heaven 17. He means New Order... :)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,063
    AZ Projection:

    Turnout 2,394,008

    Sinema 1176518
    McSally 1162278
    Green 55212

    Workings:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CytBu4o9iZPvfkougMA1Ylc3g67q6JAcHFR1iALi3AI/edit?usp=sharing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,063
    edited November 9
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 47,063
    Search Broward county on twitter. Banana Republic time
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329
    The 5 best bands of the 80s were (in order): The Smiths, The Fall, Sonic Youth, The Jesus and Mary Chain and Public Enemy. All other responses are wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    Please share. I know a woman who might be her in real life.
    http://plato-says.blogspot.com/

    It is dormant though. The only reason for mentioning it was that it showed what she had been viewing which included this site most days.
    Hi @kjh

    The sidebar doesn't show what she reads. It links to the blogs in question and shows the latest post. The idea is that the bloggers themselves can see what other blogs are pumping out without the hassle of email.

    So it shows that PB was updated 7 hours ago, not that she was reading it 7 hours ago.

    Her profile says she hasn't been on here since spring 2017. If her email's bouncing as well that sounds rather ominous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,526
    Foxy said:

    Well worth reading the whole thread, there are other examples...

    Best Twitter thread I’ve ever seen. Almost tempts me to sign up!
  • Dura_Ace said:

    The 5 best bands of the 80s were (in order): The Smiths, The Fall, Sonic Youth, The Jesus and Mary Chain and Public Enemy. All other responses are wrong.

    .... You keep telling me that I am wrong,...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,243
    viewcode said:

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Is this TSE opinion of best band or yours? Cos if it is TSE's it will mean Steps or the VengaBoys or something equally hideous.

    Ot..... Anyone else seeing the best band of the 80s onwards tomorrow? Clue its at ally pally.

    Oooh....temptation.
    No, that's Heaven 17. He means New Order... :)

    Much to learn you have, padawan:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temptation_(New_Order_song)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,698
    I thoroughly enjoyed this episode. I really like Keiran’s carefulness. The section on Survation’s Brexit findings was particularly good.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,847
    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think Bairstow will have to open with Jennings A spinner will have to miss out
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think Bairstow will have to open with Jennings A spinner will have to miss out
    If Bairstow opens with Jennings it's not a spinner who will be missing out.

    But his record as a specialist batsman isn't very impressive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,859
    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think in Sri Lanka we need another spinner more than another batsman, especially with the excellent form of Curran with the bat. Having him at 8 and Rashid at 9 gives plenty of batting. In my opinion Buttler is probably our second best batsman.

    The problem remains at places 1, 2, 3 and I just don't see YJB taking any of those positions. Ali is just not working at 3. I would give Buttler a go although it may prove rather a waste of someone who can be devastating further down the order. Jennings is fine on these pitches but it remains to be seen if he can play on a fast seamer. Burns needs a few more goes but is not shining right now.

    In England Leitch is replaced by another seamer so there is still no obvious place for Bairstow. Early days but Foakes looks like he will be there a long time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,526

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think Bairstow will have to open with Jennings A spinner will have to miss out
    Ironic when one thinks of another Essex wicket-keeper, James Foster, who, at the beginning of what should have been a fine Test career, given his ability, got injured. By the time, not long, he’s recovered he’d been supplanted and he never played Test cricket again.

    Foakes is a product of Essex youth policy, transferred to Surrey at the behest of the ECB, as Foster, allegedly, became somewhat ‘difficult’ about giving up the gloves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think in Sri Lanka we need another spinner more than another batsman, especially with the excellent form of Curran with the bat. Having him at 8 and Rashid at 9 gives plenty of batting. In my opinion Buttler is probably our second best batsman.

    The problem remains at places 1, 2, 3 and I just don't see YJB taking any of those positions. Ali is just not working at 3. I would give Buttler a go although it may prove rather a waste of someone who can be devastating further down the order. Jennings is fine on these pitches but it remains to be seen if he can play on a fast seamer. Burns needs a few more goes but is not shining right now.

    In England Leitch is replaced by another seamer so there is still no obvious place for Bairstow. Early days but Foakes looks like he will be there a long time.
    The other option suggested for three is Stokes, who has the technique to bat long and the temperament to attack if needed. Not quite convinced myself, but he would be a better option than Buttler.

    And the way things are going I can see it being Rashid not leach who is dropped for Woakes or Overton.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,672
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think in Sri Lanka we need another spinner more than another batsman, especially with the excellent form of Curran with the bat. Having him at 8 and Rashid at 9 gives plenty of batting. In my opinion Buttler is probably our second best batsman.

    The problem remains at places 1, 2, 3 and I just don't see YJB taking any of those positions. Ali is just not working at 3. I would give Buttler a go although it may prove rather a waste of someone who can be devastating further down the order. Jennings is fine on these pitches but it remains to be seen if he can play on a fast seamer. Burns needs a few more goes but is not shining right now.

    In England Leitch is replaced by another seamer so there is still no obvious place for Bairstow. Early days but Foakes looks like he will be there a long time.
    England's batting over the last 12 months has been woeful. Excepting Foakes, who has played only the one match, only Buttler has an average above 40. That probably gives the selectors licence to try a few unusual options.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 22,859

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think in Sri Lanka we need another spinner more than another batsman, especially with the excellent form of Curran with the bat. Having him at 8 and Rashid at 9 gives plenty of batting. In my opinion Buttler is probably our second best batsman.

    The problem remains at places 1, 2, 3 and I just don't see YJB taking any of those positions. Ali is just not working at 3. I would give Buttler a go although it may prove rather a waste of someone who can be devastating further down the order. Jennings is fine on these pitches but it remains to be seen if he can play on a fast seamer. Burns needs a few more goes but is not shining right now.

    In England Leitch is replaced by another seamer so there is still no obvious place for Bairstow. Early days but Foakes looks like he will be there a long time.
    England's batting over the last 12 months has been woeful. Excepting Foakes, who has played only the one match, only Buttler has an average above 40. That probably gives the selectors licence to try a few unusual options.
    Without checking the numbers that was very much my perception. Buttler is just about the last batsman to be dropped. As I said the problem is at the top of the order. If we could have opening partnerships that dealt with the new ball that middle order really ought to be world beating.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think in Sri Lanka we need another spinner more than another batsman, especially with the excellent form of Curran with the bat. Having him at 8 and Rashid at 9 gives plenty of batting. In my opinion Buttler is probably our second best batsman.

    The problem remains at places 1, 2, 3 and I just don't see YJB taking any of those positions. Ali is just not working at 3. I would give Buttler a go although it may prove rather a waste of someone who can be devastating further down the order. Jennings is fine on these pitches but it remains to be seen if he can play on a fast seamer. Burns needs a few more goes but is not shining right now.

    In England Leitch is replaced by another seamer so there is still no obvious place for Bairstow. Early days but Foakes looks like he will be there a long time.
    England's batting over the last 12 months has been woeful. Excepting Foakes, who has played only the one match, only Buttler has an average above 40. That probably gives the selectors licence to try a few unusual options.
    Without checking the numbers that was very much my perception. Buttler is just about the last batsman to be dropped. As I said the problem is at the top of the order. If we could have opening partnerships that dealt with the new ball that middle order really ought to be world beating.
    Or if we didn't have a captain who keeps finding innovative new ways to throw away his wicket.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,004
    Good morning, everyone.

    Miss Plato's Twitter has been inactive since about June. I have tried e-mailing her, but had no reply. Hoping she's alright, but did seem to drop off the radar pretty rapidly.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,847

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think Bairstow will have to open with Jennings A spinner will have to miss out
    Ironic when one thinks of another Essex wicket-keeper, James Foster, who, at the beginning of what should have been a fine Test career, given his ability, got injured. By the time, not long, he’s recovered he’d been supplanted and he never played Test cricket again.

    Foakes is a product of Essex youth policy, transferred to Surrey at the behest of the ECB, as Foster, allegedly, became somewhat ‘difficult’ about giving up the gloves.
    Surrey's gain. but Surrey will have a much harder time of it in 2019 with Curran, Burns and Foakes playing for England.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523
    edited November 9

    ydoethur said:

    Sri Lanka 98/3 at lunch.

    Question. How does Jonny Bairstow return to the side? He can hardly replace Root. He doesn't open (sadly). Foakes can't be dropped after this, he's been far too good. Moeen and Stokes offer options with the ball.

    The only person he could replace when fit again is Buttler and I don't see that happening.

    Has Bairstow's international career just been put on hold?

    I think Bairstow will have to open with Jennings A spinner will have to miss out
    Ironic when one thinks of another Essex wicket-keeper, James Foster, who, at the beginning of what should have been a fine Test career, given his ability, got injured. By the time, not long, he’s recovered he’d been supplanted and he never played Test cricket again.

    Foakes is a product of Essex youth policy, transferred to Surrey at the behest of the ECB, as Foster, allegedly, became somewhat ‘difficult’ about giving up the gloves.
    Surrey's gain. but Surrey will have a much harder time of it in 2019 with Curran, Burns and Foakes playing for England.
    Who is Surrey's reserve keeper at the moment?

    Edit - duh, Ollie Pope. Should have got that without asking.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,283

    AZ have just updated their numbers, adding about 100K new ballots... Sinema now a nose ahead:

    Sinema 48.91%
    McSally 48.80%

    https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

    Boom!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,554
    Sinema now 9000 votes ahead in AZ Senate. Really appreciate whoever posted that the Dems were at 6 on betfair to win yesterday
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,283
    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,514
    edited November 9
    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    Sinema now 9000 votes ahead in AZ Senate. Really appreciate whoever posted that the Dems were at 6 on betfair to win yesterday

    Would be quite funny if it was a dead heat and he lost on the toss of a coin.

    Then we could honestly say that he lost becuase he was a useless tosser.

    Have a good morning!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,554
    ydoethur said:

    Sinema now 9000 votes ahead in AZ Senate. Really appreciate whoever posted that the Dems were at 6 on betfair to win yesterday

    Would be quite funny if it was a dead heat and he lost on the toss of a coin.

    Then we could honestly say that he lost becuase he was a useless tosser.

    Have a good morning!
    Thanks , though McSally is female!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,554
    edited November 9
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
    Mail-in / early votes happen because the US is apparently incapable of providing enough polling stations, which means voting in person takes hours.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,415
    Alistair said:

    AZ have just updated their numbers, adding about 100K new ballots... Sinema now a nose ahead:

    Sinema 48.91%
    McSally 48.80%

    https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

    Boom!
    https://results.arizona.vote/#/

    Sinema 49.1%
    McSally 48.59%
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329



    Thanks , though McSally is female!

    Ex USAF A-10 driver.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,514

    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
    Mail-in / early votes happen because the US is apparently incapable of providing enough polling stations, which means voting in person takes hours.
    Yes it's ridiculous. But they'd have to raise taxes to pay for more polling stations.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,554
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
    Mail-in / early votes happen because the US is apparently incapable of providing enough polling stations, which means voting in person takes hours.
    Yes it's ridiculous. But they'd have to raise taxes to pay for more polling stations.
    I’m sure the savings could be found if elections were run by a single national authority rather than the absurd inefficency of each county (let alone each state) running its elections separately with different voting machines, ballot papers, procedures etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 13,523

    ydoethur said:

    Sinema now 9000 votes ahead in AZ Senate. Really appreciate whoever posted that the Dems were at 6 on betfair to win yesterday

    Would be quite funny if it was a dead heat and he lost on the toss of a coin.

    Then we could honestly say that he lost becuase he was a useless tosser.

    Have a good morning!
    Thanks , though McSally is female!
    Sorry, replied to the wrong post. That was a reference to Rick Scott's panic.

    TTFN.
  • Ben Foakes drops a sitter, bring back YJB for the next match.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 20,243
    Dura_Ace said:

    The 5 best bands of the 80s were (in order): The Smiths, The Fall, Sonic Youth, The Jesus and Mary Chain and Public Enemy. All other responses are wrong.

    Any Best Bands of the 80s list that doesn't include either New Order or The Pogues suggests you spent that decade buzzing the tower, Mav.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,283
    edited November 9

    Sinema now 9000 votes ahead in AZ Senate. Really appreciate whoever posted that the Dems were at 6 on betfair to win yesterday

    That was either @Pulpstar or me. I really should have tossed on more than the tenner I did but I just couldn't make sense of the Arizona election data I was reading.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
    Mail-in / early votes happen because the US is apparently incapable of providing enough polling stations, which means voting in person takes hours.
    Yes it's ridiculous. But they'd have to raise taxes to pay for more polling stations.
    I’m sure the savings could be found if elections were run by a single national authority rather than the absurd inefficency of each county (let alone each state) running its elections separately with different voting machines, ballot papers, procedures etc.
    In theory - but that would require States surrendering powers, which given that those are used for political advantage, isn't going to happen any time soon. The running of elections is almost as much a political battle ground as the elections themselves (though some states are markedly fairer).

    Travel times to polling stations, and the difficulty of taking time off work to vote (two hours is the legal allowance, which is grossly inadequate for many voters) are also issues.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 27,474

    Dura_Ace said:

    The 5 best bands of the 80s were (in order): The Smiths, The Fall, Sonic Youth, The Jesus and Mary Chain and Public Enemy. All other responses are wrong.

    Any Best Bands of the 80s list that doesn't include either New Order or The Pogues suggests you spent that decade buzzing the tower, Mav.....

    May I also throw in The Jam and The Clash. Thnx.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,283
    edited November 9
    Turnout is creeping up too. 48.5% as California has just revealed how many outstanding votes it has left.

    You're welcome.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,811
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
    That is the tiniest problem facing the US electoral process and system ...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,761
    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    I did, and I emailed her, but it bounced :(
    What’d the address?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,329
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjh said:

    RCS1000 did you see my link to Plato's blog site?

    I did, and I emailed her, but it bounced :(
    What’d the address?
    [email protected]
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,198
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    Rick Scott tryi gnto get the vote counting stopped as he is losing ground as all votes are counted. Banana fucking republic



    How does the "bad night for the Dems" narrative change if the take Fl, GA, and AZ plus near 40 gains in the house?

    Not counting all the votes on the night is my idea of a banana republic. A speedy result is important for democracy IMO.
    Well anything other than a repeat of Bush v Gore is a banana republic then, because the delay in Florida is because of the changes instigated there to avoid a repeat.

    Secrecy and failure to release vote counts is the mark of a banana republic. Given that the US releases tallies of votes literally as they are counted, faster than any other country I am aware of, your comparison is bizarre.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292
    Alistair said:
    All the Republicans leaving California ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,292
    The Florida county involved in the recount controversy is, of course, the same one at the epicentre of the Bush/Gore election:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/08/florida-senate-elections-scott-nelson-2018-recount-975805
This discussion has been closed.