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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » April 2019: month of chaos

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » April 2019: month of chaos

Nothing has changed: words that might well form Theresa May’s epitaph. Unfortunately for her, unless something does, that epitaph will be needed sooner rather than later. With less than five months until the Brexit deadline, both the parliamentary maths and the European diplomacy remain resolutely irresoluble. Nothing has changed.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Not first
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    “No referendum bill will be introduced.”

    Just like there wasn’t going to be another election.
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    “a little more justification for a U-turn should Remain win.”

    Nonsense. Will of the people, innit?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Terrific, well done chaps. What a mess.
  • “No referendum bill will be introduced.”

    Just like there wasn’t going to be another election.

    The mechanism for an election was already in place, as were several strong reasons for calling one. Neither point holds (for the PM at least) for a new referendum.
  • Excellent article.

    God, we are in a mess.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    So how about the Tories becoming the anti-Brexit party under JJ? I'd vote for them if the alternative was a Labour Party that wanted to leave.
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.

    No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
  • I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.
  • Jonathan said:

    Terrific, well done chaps. What a mess.

    What a mess indeed - but well done 'chaps' ignores the many women supporting brexit
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    I don't think that's right. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it likely that Britain would be left with a government that had no authority and no credibility for another three years, and all at a time when the country would need decisive leadership.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I agree with you that the 2% GDP target is a crude and proxy measure.

    But, it broadly links a base level of military and security spending to a nation’s economic performance.

    It should be ‘a’ measure but very far from the only measure.

    % of GDP is useless. Turkey spend less than 2% GDP and, in absolute terms, about a fifth of the UK defence budget but they have an army of 300,000 and the same again in reserves. And those fuckers can fight...
    My grandfather was an infantry private in Mesopotamia in 1917, and had a high opinion of Turkish soldiers, who fought hard but cleanly, respecting truces to collect wounded etc. After the Somme, he almost seemed to enjoy it, apart from catching malaria.
    We once put into Izmir on Invincible's med cruise. Normally a port visit is an exchange of pleasantries and souvenirs but the Turkish Navy insisted on shooting competition. As I was the ship's qualified marksman I was dispatched to the shooting range for a 15m handgun competition. I was up against some snake eater from their Naval Infantry. He went first and had two of his comrades stand to attention right next to and at either side of the target while he blazed away at it with a SIG227!

    The scene was best summarised by our ship's Chaplain who was in attendance to provide me with moral support. His benediction was simply, "Fucking hell."
    Aye, but did ye win?
    No, I lost.

    I would like to blame my aircrew issue Walther PP which wasn't that accurate at 1.5m never mind 15m or the budget Pakistani ammunition kindly procured for us by the MoD. However, the fact is that I was comprehensively shitted up by what I had just seen and couldn't focus.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.

    No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
    Rightly so.

    It's the prospect of a Corbyn government which terrifies me, even more than a No Deal exit, which I have thought the most likely outcome for some time now.

    Even if Britain decided to remain the amount of resentment that has been created will continue to inject its own poison into the British and European body politic. If a chaotic No Deal is the outcome, that too will inject poison into the European body politic in ways we cannot now anticipate. It is a real mess and, whatever your views on the results of the 2016 vote, could and should have been avoidable.

    Anyway, thanks for the article. I better go and order my Siemens kitchen before it gets trapped on a Kent motorway somewhere.......
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    I don't think that's right. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it likely that Britain would be left with a government that had no authority and no credibility for another three years, and all at a time when the country would need decisive leadership.
    The PM needs to be someone who commands the support of a majority of the House.

    It would need I'd reckon at least 100 Tory MPs to effectively vote against Mrs May in a Parliamentary confidence vote but given the circumstances it could happen.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    That sounds about right.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    "But it’s still all hypothetical as long as the Tories are in power: no referendum bill will be introduced."

    The Tories only need to be in office in order to introduce the bill, not in power. ;)
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    That is certainly a possible scenario.

    The EU is clearly better prepared for no deal than the UK and they may actually prefer this outcome now, partly because it seems almost impossible for May to get a deal acceptable to parliament but also because Macron, Merkel & co are facing a challenge from Eurosceptic parties at the EP elections. What better way of undermining Euroscepticism than pictures of gridlocked Kent and empty supermarket shelves in London?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will be alright on the night.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    Businesses will get their lorries to fly over gridlocked motorways?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    eek said:

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    Businesses will get their lorries to fly over gridlocked motorways?
    I think he means they'll bang down Theresa May's door and demand she ask for an Article 50 extension.
  • Now that Dominic Raab has discovered that Britain is an island near France, surely there is hope we might start to get somewhere with the negotiations.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Micro-deals, sector by sector, undertaken by people who know what they are doing - that sounds quite attractive.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    OllyT said:

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will be alright on the night.
    There... fixed it for you

    I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything won't alright on the night
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    eek said:

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    Businesses will get their lorries to fly over gridlocked motorways?
    I remember one Brexpert on here looking on Google Maps to prove Honda UK could build a runway in their car park in Swindon.
  • OllyT said:

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will be alright on the night.
    But equally many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will go wrong on the night when we've seen so many previous simplistic assertions proved wrong.

    Generally its those who predict some sort of muddled middle outcome who are right rather than the posturing extremes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I agree with you that the 2% GDP target is a crude and proxy measure.

    But, it broadly links a base level of military and security spending to a nation’s economic performance.

    It should be ‘a’ measure but very far from the only measure.

    % of GDP is useless. Turkey spend less than 2% GDP and, in absolute terms, about a fifth of the UK defence budget but they have an army of 300,000 and the same again in reserves. And those fuckers can fight...
    My grandfather was an infantry private in Mesopotamia in 1917, and had a high opinion of Turkish soldiers, who fought hard but cleanly, respecting truces to collect wounded etc. After the Somme, he almost seemed to enjoy it, apart from catching malaria.
    We once put into Izmir on Invincible's med cruise. Normally a port visit is an exchange of pleasantries and souvenirs but the Turkish Navy insisted on shooting competition. As I was the ship's qualified marksman I was dispatched to the shooting range for a 15m handgun competition. I was up against some snake eater from their Naval Infantry. He went first and had two of his comrades stand to attention right next to and at either side of the target while he blazed away at it with a SIG227!

    The scene was best summarised by our ship's Chaplain who was in attendance to provide me with moral support. His benediction was simply, "Fucking hell."
    Aye, but did ye win?
    No, I lost.

    I would like to blame my aircrew issue Walther PP which wasn't that accurate at 1.5m never mind 15m or the budget Pakistani ammunition kindly procured for us by the MoD. However, the fact is that I was comprehensively shitted up by what I had just seen and couldn't focus.
    Someone I was at school with was in the junior UK pistol team. He was at a competition somewhere, and had his first shot. It was so wayward, that he just blammed the rest of his shots in utter frustration.

    When they looked at his score, he was 1 point off the world record....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    That is certainly a possible scenario.

    The EU is clearly better prepared for no deal than the UK and they may actually prefer this outcome now, partly because it seems almost impossible for May to get a deal acceptable to parliament but also because Macron, Merkel & co are facing a challenge from Eurosceptic parties at the EP elections. What better way of undermining Euroscepticism than pictures of gridlocked Kent and empty supermarket shelves in London?
    Why is the EU so worried about euroscepticism on the Continent? Is it that much of a threat? In Germany it is the Greens which are riding in the polls. Le Pen has abandoned her desire for a Frexit. Even in Italy there is little real desire to leave the EU.

    I think it is more likely that they think scenes of chaos in Britain will reinforce Continental Europe as the only place where business should be located i.e. whatever they may say in public, punishment for Britain (albeit largely self-inflicted) is necessary for the EU to look very much better. Better for Britain to suffer as the EU will largely be able to insulate itself from the consequences. They may be right. But there is a non-negligible prospect that they could be wrong. Some financial butterfly fluttering its wings somewhere and we could easily be back in a 2007-2008 situation.

    The Irish also seem worried about the prospect of any competition from the UK - hence the demands for a level playing field. If Britain will be a third country then why should it play by the same rules? The whole point of being a third country is not to have the same playing field, though this means not having the same advantages either.

    The fundamental problem is that ever since the referendum result the Government has made no real effort to work out on as wide and as consensual a basis as possible what sort of relationship with the EU Britain wants. That is why we are in the mess we're in and why a No Deal exit with all the possible damaging consequences for Britain and the EU that that implies seems ever more likely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Jonathan said:

    Terrific, well done chaps. What a mess.

    What a mess indeed - but well done 'chaps' ignores the many women supporting brexit
    ....and especially the main one implementing it.

    Lesson learnt: don't have vegetarians running the abattoir.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    Business will do what governments allow them to do. If the laws and regulations after no deal put barriers in their way, they'll find it hard to break down those barriers without cooperation with (i.e. a nod and a wink) those governments.

    I find your optimism to be fairly laughable. Virtually everything about the modern world is complex, including trade, and has evolved into a sort of stability. It'll be very easy for that stability to be broken, at great expense to us.
  • I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. In any case, there is no consensus on what a compromise agreement would look like, and I expect that if it came down to it, Labour MPs would prefer to oust the government with the expectation of agreeing a deal in government, than to do a deal with the Tories. Obviously, that means putting Corbyn and MacDonnell into Downing St. I think they'd be happy with that - it's why they're MPs now, after the 2017 election.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2018

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

    there are other ports than Dover
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

    there are other ports than Dover

    There are - and they have far fewer cross-channel sailings than Dover, those sailings all take much longer and they do not have the customs capacity Dover does.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

    there are other ports than Dover
    Do Brexiteers realise how mad they sound when they suggest Dover is something that can be worked around?
  • Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. In any case, there is no consensus on what a compromise agreement would look like, and I expect that if it came down to it, Labour MPs would prefer to oust the government with the expectation of agreeing a deal in government, than to do a deal with the Tories. Obviously, that means putting Corbyn and MacDonnell into Downing St. I think they'd be happy with that - it's why they're MPs now, after the 2017 election.
    The only realistic option is for Labour to offer votes to pass an amended Brexit deal, on the basis of a general election in May/June.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

    there are other ports than Dover

    There are - and they have far fewer cross-channel sailings than Dover, those sailings all take much longer and they do not have the customs capacity Dover does.
    Mere details. Like when some on here showed a map of land in Dover where lorries might be parked, without checking that it was actually a steep hillside ...
  • I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. .
    That is essentially what ultimately will happen. The last couple of years has just been choosing which of the stock EU options Britain will ultimately select, tinkering around the edges and grandstanding for the headbangers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. .
    That is essentially what ultimately will happen. The last couple of years has just been choosing which of the stock EU options Britain will ultimately select, tinkering around the edges and grandstanding for the headbangers.
    The path of least resistance remains Remain, not the ratification of a withdrawal agreement.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. In any case, there is no consensus on what a compromise agreement would look like, and I expect that if it came down to it, Labour MPs would prefer to oust the government with the expectation of agreeing a deal in government, than to do a deal with the Tories. Obviously, that means putting Corbyn and MacDonnell into Downing St. I think they'd be happy with that - it's why they're MPs now, after the 2017 election.
    So do I , to be fair if the Conservative Party .can not lead the country to a deal , then her majesty opposition should be given a try .Maybe Sir Kier Starker could help us out.
  • Oh dear, this looks dreadful:

    ' In September 2018, fresh fruit prices rose by 7.6% over one year. They were driven by higher prices for apples (+14.8%) and pears (+8.2%). Vegetable prices gained 18.8% over one year, particularly those for salads (+ 28.2%) and tomatoes (+ 34.6%). The price of new crop potatoes was 62.1% higher than a year ago. '

    But those aren't British agricultural producer prices.

    That's happening in France:

    https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3640413
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Apologies Sir Keir Starmer for some reason would not let me edit it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    How could a hypothetical Leave campaign in a second referendum withstand having all the things they said in 2016 thrown back at them?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I agree with you that the 2% GDP target is a crude and proxy measure.

    But, it broadly links a base level of military and security spending to a nation’s economic performance.

    It should be ‘a’ measure but very far from the only measure.

    % of GDP is useless. Turkey spend less than 2% GDP and, in absolute terms, about a fifth of the UK defence budget but they have an army of 300,000 and the same again in reserves. And those fuckers can fight...
    My grandfather was an infantry private in Mesopotamia in 1917, and had a high opinion of Turkish soldiers, who fought hard but cleanly, respecting truces to collect wounded etc. After the Somme, he almost seemed to enjoy it, apart from catching malaria.
    We once put into Izmir on Invincible's med cruise. Normally a port visit is an exchange of pleasantries and souvenirs but the Turkish Navy insisted on shooting competition. As I was the ship's qualified marksman I was dispatched to the shooting range for a 15m handgun competition. I was up against some snake eater from their Naval Infantry. He went first and had two of his comrades stand to attention right next to and at either side of the target while he blazed away at it with a SIG227!

    The scene was best summarised by our ship's Chaplain who was in attendance to provide me with moral support. His benediction was simply, "Fucking hell."
    Aye, but did ye win?
    No, I lost.

    I would like to blame my aircrew issue Walther PP which wasn't that accurate at 1.5m never mind 15m or the budget Pakistani ammunition kindly procured for us by the MoD. However, the fact is that I was comprehensively shitted up by what I had just seen and couldn't focus.
    Understandable.
    None of your comrades willing to provide a smilar show of faith in your markmanship? Though I daresay that wouldn't have steadied your hand any.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    This, like so many other Brexiteer pronouncements, is so clearly wrong that it can only have been driven by mendacity or rank stupidity.

    In Goves case I think it was mendacity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,279
    edited November 2018
    Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.

    I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."

    It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:

    image

    The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.
  • I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.
  • Mr. Smithson, it would be in keeping with the Soviet slogan of a People's Vote.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,279

    I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    Suspect some Brexiteers will hot-foot it to their foreign pads in the EU and claim asylum to avoid prosecution.
  • I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    So am I.

    The likes of Gove being found guilty of treason will be fun.

    To think he calls himself a Thatcherite whilst he delivers Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto and implements the wishes of Russia, truly sickening.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    NO deal is better than a bad deal, grow a pair and tell EU to take a hike rather than butt licking
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    This, like so many other Brexiteer pronouncements, is so clearly wrong that it can only have been driven by mendacity or rank stupidity.

    In Goves case I think it was mendacity.
    I would opt for utter stupidity
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited November 2018

    I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    Giood job the Brexiteers haven't pissed off the judiciary.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    malcolmg said:

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    NO deal is better than a bad deal, grow a pair and tell EU to take a hike rather than butt licking
    +1
  • Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
    I heard a story that Gove was convinced Boris would use the Leave vote to get a better deal from the EU so we’d Remain so that’s why he stabbed Boris in the front.

    In Gove’s defence it was something Boris had said before the referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited November 2018

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
    You can go back further than that. Gove was responsible for radicalising Tory Euroscepticism and turning Brexit into a mainstream position. This was in 2012:

    image
  • Mr. Eagles, I think I remember that. And commenting at the time it was an insane idea.

    As an aside, voting to leave and then ending up remaining or having a terrible deal does fit in with my annoyingly accurate (so far) theory of, outside chance though it is, the far right could rise in the UK.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

    there are other ports than Dover

    There are - and they have far fewer cross-channel sailings than Dover, those sailings all take much longer and they do not have the customs capacity Dover does.

    Newhaven-Dieppe is pretty decent option in terms of getting ships in and out. The trouble is that once off the lorry the trucks have very poor choices of roads to get onto the motorway network. Though there is a bonus for the real hardcore leavers, it would be pro-remain Lewes and Brighton that would bear the brunt of the traffic congestion.

    Of course in an ideal world we could have spent the last 2 years spending the Brexit bonus on upgrading the roads in East Sussex.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.

    there are other ports than Dover
    There are indeed.

    image

    Unfortunately they will also have the same problems...

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-customs-september-2017

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    I still think an agreed deal will emerge in December (last minute deals are the EU standard), but I'm less sure than I was that the obvious May strategy (paint all alternatives as so catastrophic that you just have to take her deal) will succeed. That's why the Jo Johnson resignation letter was so damaging - quite a lot of MPs will be open to the argument that the Government cannot reasonably insist that the only choice is between a bad option and a worse option, when Leave was sold to the public as a perfectly reasonable option.

    What seems not to have been noticed is that May has said that if the deal was voted down it would be up to Parliament to decide what to do next. This appears to mean that if Parliament did vote for a second referendum with three choice (Deal, Remain or Nol Deal), the government would legislate for one. In those circumstances, I think the EU would roll their eyes and agree to an extension of Article 50.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    So am I.

    The likes of Gove being found guilty of treason will be fun.

    To think he calls himself a Thatcherite whilst he delivers Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto and implements the wishes of Russia, truly sickening.
    It reality it's f ing amazing .When he he was a Blairite supporter as a journalist in the Times I thought he would make a good Tory leader m now I think he and his wife are just power seekers with no principles at all.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited November 2018

    I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    1983 manifesto and implements the wishes of Russia, truly sickening.
    It reality it's f ing amazing .When Gove was a Blairite supporter as a journalist in the Times I thought he would make a good Tory leader now I think he and his wife are just power seekers with no principles at all.

  • I still think an agreed deal will emerge in December (last minute deals are the EU standard), but I'm less sure than I was that the obvious May strategy (paint all alternatives as so catastrophic that you just have to take her deal) will succeed. That's why the Jo Johnson resignation letter was so damaging - quite a lot of MPs will be open to the argument that the Government cannot reasonably insist that the only choice is between a bad option and a worse option, when Leave was sold to the public as a perfectly reasonable option.

    What seems not to have been noticed is that May has said that if the deal was voted down it would be up to Parliament to decide what to do next. This appears to mean that if Parliament did vote for a second referendum with three choice (Deal, Remain or Nol Deal), the government would legislate for one. In those circumstances, I think the EU would roll their eyes and agree to an extension of Article 50.

    :+1:

    Tick, tock...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    malcolmg said:

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    NO deal is better than a bad deal, grow a pair and tell EU to take a hike rather than butt licking
    There are a whole plethora of 'no deal' options, and which one gets chosen is not only not fully in our hands, but depends on the ability of our politicians.

    Hence there is a good chance that the no deal we're heading for is far worse than a 'bad' deal.

    (A long-term planned 'no deal' might be a very different matter...)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Massive Sample size

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 39% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)
    GRN: 2%

    via @Survation, 20 Oct - 02 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Oct
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    Suspect some Brexiteers will hot-foot it to their foreign pads in the EU and claim asylum to avoid prosecution.
    They can join Nigel Lawson in France or Somerset Capital in Dublin.

    Spare a thought, though, for poor Theresa, she will be reviled as the worst PM in living memory and have to live out her friendless retirement unable to appear safely in public, damned by all sides. Blairs unpopularity will be nothing compared to the fate that will be hers.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    The solution is a WTO deal.

    The UK would not introduce a hard border in Ireland but have checks away from the border as happens currently.

    Article 50 would take place by default without the need for a vote in parliament.

    Neither France nor England would tolerate queues at the Dover/Calais crossing or elsewhere.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    edited November 2018

    I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    Suspect some Brexiteers will hot-foot it to their foreign pads in the EU and claim asylum to avoid prosecution.
    They can join Nigel Lawson in France or Somerset Capital in Dublin.

    Spare a thought, though, for poor Theresa, she will be reviled as the worst PM in living memory and have to live out her friendless retirement unable to appear safely in public, damned by all sides. Blairs unpopularity will be nothing compared to the fate that will be hers.
    Somerset Capital. Would that be the fund founded by Jacob Rees-Mogg that has recently set things up in Dublin, by any chance? A Leaver running away from the UK when times get hard? I'm... well I'm shocked, I tell you: shocked!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    The solution is a WTO deal.

    The UK would not introduce a hard border in Ireland but have checks away from the border as happens currently.

    Article 50 would take place by default without the need for a vote in parliament.

    Neither France nor England would tolerate queues at the Dover/Calais crossing or elsewhere.

    But May does not have the inclination. She woud have to be removed and replaced by someone who did.....
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777

    I still think an agreed deal will emerge in December (last minute deals are the EU standard), but I'm less sure than I was that the obvious May strategy (paint all alternatives as so catastrophic that you just have to take her deal) will succeed. That's why the Jo Johnson resignation letter was so damaging - quite a lot of MPs will be open to the argument that the Government cannot reasonably insist that the only choice is between a bad option and a worse option, when Leave was sold to the public as a perfectly reasonable option.

    What seems not to have been noticed is that May has said that if the deal was voted down it would be up to Parliament to decide what to do next. This appears to mean that if Parliament did vote for a second referendum with three choice (Deal, Remain or Nol Deal), the government would legislate for one. In those circumstances, I think the EU would roll their eyes and agree to an extension of Article 50.

    And if we had such a second referendum vote Nick, what do you think the outcome would be?
  • Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
    You can go back further than that. Gove was responsible for radicalising Tory Euroscepticism and turning Brexit into a mainstream position. This was in 2012:

    image
    So which married star fell for the honey trap?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
    I heard a story that Gove was convinced Boris would use the Leave vote to get a better deal from the EU so we’d Remain so that’s why he stabbed Boris in the front.

    In Gove’s defence it was something Boris had said before the referendum.
    In Boris's defence the end result couldn't be worse than where we are now
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    stjohn said:

    I still think an agreed deal will emerge in December (last minute deals are the EU standard), but I'm less sure than I was that the obvious May strategy (paint all alternatives as so catastrophic that you just have to take her deal) will succeed. That's why the Jo Johnson resignation letter was so damaging - quite a lot of MPs will be open to the argument that the Government cannot reasonably insist that the only choice is between a bad option and a worse option, when Leave was sold to the public as a perfectly reasonable option.

    What seems not to have been noticed is that May has said that if the deal was voted down it would be up to Parliament to decide what to do next. This appears to mean that if Parliament did vote for a second referendum with three choice (Deal, Remain or Nol Deal), the government would legislate for one. In those circumstances, I think the EU would roll their eyes and agree to an extension of Article 50.

    And if we had such a second referendum vote Nick, what do you think the outcome would be?
    Riots on the streets.

    Lynching of politicians who allowed it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    The solution is a WTO deal.

    The UK would not introduce a hard border in Ireland but have checks away from the border as happens currently.

    Article 50 would take place by default without the need for a vote in parliament.

    Neither France nor England would tolerate queues at the Dover/Calais crossing or elsewhere.

    But May does not have the inclination. She woud have to be removed and replaced by someone who did.....
    Which brings us back to a point I've made before. May will not leave voluntarily. If you wish her to leave, somebody will have to depose her. Who in the Conservative caucus will do so?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Massive Sample size

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 39% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)
    GRN: 2%

    via @Survation, 20 Oct - 02 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Oct

    What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
  • I'm looking forward to the Brexit show trials.

    So am I.

    The likes of Gove being found guilty of treason will be fun.

    To think he calls himself a Thatcherite whilst he delivers Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto and implements the wishes of Russia, truly sickening.
    Gove, Leadsom and Fox have supported the Chequers deal - so far.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
    I heard a story that Gove was convinced Boris would use the Leave vote to get a better deal from the EU so we’d Remain so that’s why he stabbed Boris in the front.

    In Gove’s defence it was something Boris had said before the referendum.
    So Gove was really only interested in staying on better terms? I suppose that fits with his being a cheerleader for the Chequers BINO....
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    What really would be a game changer is if Boris came out now and said that because Teresa May has not been able to secure a good deal, then staying in the EU is the most sensible path to take and that he favours a second referendum and would vote REMAIN.

    It would probably finish off his political career but he would potentially achieve a major and ultimately positive place in the history books.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    OllyT said:

    On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.
    I think many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will be alright on the night.
    But equally many of us are done with simplistic assertions that everything will go wrong on the night when we've seen so many previous simplistic assertions proved wrong.

    Generally its those who predict some sort of muddled middle outcome who are right rather than the posturing extremes.
    Given what we've seen over the last two years pessimism is the safer bet. Still now our Brexit Secretary grasped how goods arrive on this island I'm sure it will all go swimmingly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    Massive Sample size

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 39% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)
    GRN: 2%

    via @Survation, 20 Oct - 02 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Oct

    What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
    What a shame that the other parties are in such a catastrophic mess that a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite seems like the better option.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Jonathan said:

    Terrific, well done chaps. What a mess.

    What a mess indeed - but well done 'chaps' ignores the many women supporting brexit
    ....and especially the main one implementing it.

    Lesson learnt: don't have vegetarians running the abattoir.....

    Yes because it would obviously have gone so much better if our leaver Brexit Secretary had been in charge from the start. We would have been home and dry once he had grasped how Dover works.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065

    stjohn said:

    I still think an agreed deal will emerge in December (last minute deals are the EU standard), but I'm less sure than I was that the obvious May strategy (paint all alternatives as so catastrophic that you just have to take her deal) will succeed. That's why the Jo Johnson resignation letter was so damaging - quite a lot of MPs will be open to the argument that the Government cannot reasonably insist that the only choice is between a bad option and a worse option, when Leave was sold to the public as a perfectly reasonable option.

    What seems not to have been noticed is that May has said that if the deal was voted down it would be up to Parliament to decide what to do next. This appears to mean that if Parliament did vote for a second referendum with three choice (Deal, Remain or Nol Deal), the government would legislate for one. In those circumstances, I think the EU would roll their eyes and agree to an extension of Article 50.

    And if we had such a second referendum vote Nick, what do you think the outcome would be?
    Riots on the streets.

    Lynching of politicians who allowed it.
    On line tantrums more like!
  • Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.

    I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."

    It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:

    image

    The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.

    Nowadays our electricity backup comes across from France.

    Also we rely on the wind blowing for renewable power.

    Pray for wind post Brexit.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    viewcode said:

    Massive Sample size

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 39% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)
    GRN: 2%

    via @Survation, 20 Oct - 02 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Oct

    What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
    What a shame that the other parties are in such a catastrophic mess that a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite seems like the better option.
    It really doesn't seem like a better option. Those voting numbers would probably still see the Tories slightly ahead on popular vote (given UKIP would have few candidates) and the mess at Westminster would still not provide a majority for any form of future relationship with the EU.
  • Did Michael Gove know that Britain is an island when he said this?
    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1061046382235148288

    Gove prevented Boris being offered to the members as a candidate for implementation of Leave.

    Gove ensured that with Leadsom the challenger, May would become leader - as a result of his intervention.

    Gove owns where we are.

    (We have no idea where we would be if Boris were leading the country and the Brexit negotiations. But we can safely say one thing: it would be a different place....)
    I heard a story that Gove was convinced Boris would use the Leave vote to get a better deal from the EU so we’d Remain so that’s why he stabbed Boris in the front.

    In Gove’s defence it was something Boris had said before the referendum.
    So Gove was really only interested in staying on better terms? I suppose that fits with his being a cheerleader for the Chequers BINO....
    No Boris wanted to stay in on better terms, Gove's a bona fide leaver.
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    there wont be a shortage of meds or food .. its all bullshit. business will do what business needs to do.

    Business will import what business is able to import. It cannot get round long customs delays and gridlocked traffic.


    Meds are light weight and can be flown into the country.
  • stjohn said:

    What really would be a game changer is if Boris came out now and said that because Teresa May has not been able to secure a good deal, then staying in the EU is the most sensible path to take and that he favours a second referendum and would vote REMAIN.

    It would probably finish off his political career but he would potentially achieve a major and ultimately positive place in the history books.

    As opposed to the place he currently has booked in, as the begetter of a national catastrophe.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    edited November 2018

    viewcode said:

    Massive Sample size

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 39% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)
    GRN: 2%

    via @Survation, 20 Oct - 02 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Oct

    What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
    What a shame that the other parties are in such a catastrophic mess that a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite seems like the better option.
    It really doesn't seem like a better option. Those voting numbers would probably still see the Tories slightly ahead on popular vote (given UKIP would have few candidates) and the mess at Westminster would still not provide a majority for any form of future relationship with the EU.
    Oh, joy... :)
  • On topic, I think it's a better question than answer. As a political betting site, we should think carefully about the political consequences of a No Deal outcome in late March. These could snowball quite quickly.

    More than a fortnight of no deal means the government falls.

    There's no way the country will accept a shortage of meds and food.

    The Brexiteers who promised us sunlit uplands and said No Deal was Project Fear will be the new guilty men who can be safely ignored.

    I'd expect a last alliance of Pro EU Tories and Labour MPs to form a government of national unity and sue for peace.
    Certainly No Deal means the Tories are absolutely f***ed for a generation.

    No amount of bleating about the will of the people will save them from what's coming.
    Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, DUP - they will all be seen to have let the country down with the Brexit implementation.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    viewcode said:

    Massive Sample size

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    48m48 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (+1)
    CON: 39% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-3)
    GRN: 2%

    via @Survation, 20 Oct - 02 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Oct

    What a shame that so many of my fellow countrymen and women are willing to vote for a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite.
    What a shame that the other parties are in such a catastrophic mess that a Labour Party led by an anti-Semite seems like the better option.
    We're a little over a year into a parliament, with the government being formed by a party that has been in power in some form or other for eight years. The opposition should be far ahead.

    Corbyn and his cult-like 'followers' are a massive drag on Labour's electability.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065

    Interesting and worrying article David, thank-you.

    I had to smile at: "It’s entirely possible that the country could see its worst disruption since the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week..."

    It's a minor quibble the three-day week was massively more disruptive than the winter of discontent. The impact of the latter has grown in Tory mythology but look at the evidence of GDP growth:

    image

    The three-day week (under a Tory government, I might add) screwed the economy for years.

    Mostly just bust after the Barber boom surely?

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited November 2018

    I'm both more and less optimistic than David Herdson. More optimistic because I continue to believe that in the absence of an alternative Parliament will eventually pass a deal. It would be a very bad deal, but it would be a deal. Less optimistic because if I am wrong I don't think that "practical politics" will be enough to get some form of a deal. Things sometimes fall apart.

    I continue to expect a deal but there remains the distinct possibility of very considerable disruption indeed. This looks like a very dangerous corner.

    Parliament *cannot* pass a deal any more than you or I can. It does not have the power to force the government to, nor the mechanisms to agree a text to put to the EU. The only possible option would be to agree, virtually without amendment, whatever the EU put forward. In any case, there is no consensus on what a compromise agreement would look like, and I expect that if it came down to it, Labour MPs would prefer to oust the government with the expectation of agreeing a deal in government, than to do a deal with the Tories. Obviously, that means putting Corbyn and MacDonnell into Downing St. I think they'd be happy with that - it's why they're MPs now, after the 2017 election.
    Mrs May, when asked what would happen if her deal was voted down, didn't say "we leave on 29 March without a deal" but said "it will be up to parliament to decide".

    One option is for Mrs May to facilitate it by introducing legislation that instructs the government to inform the EU that no deal has proven possible and that the UK will therefore leave the EU on 29 March without a withdrawal agreement.

    This would give parliament the opportunity to amend it with, for example, asking the EU to extend A50 for six months while a second referendum takes place.

    I don't think the PM would feel able to propose a second referendum herself but if parliament so decides, well .... Her other option of calling a general election is just too risky. How would the Tory party decide what to put in the manifesto regarding Brexit? It would tear it apart. And facilitate a Corbyn government.

    She has very little choice but to open it up to parliament to decide.
This discussion has been closed.