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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After Tuesday Trump surely has less than a 69% chance of being the Republican WH2020 nominee

A number of US commentators are taking the view that the order in which results came in on Tuesday evening is giving a distorted picture of what happened. The early news about the races in Ohio and Florida dominated the initial thinking and overshadowed what is now clear was in fact a big success for the Democrats. The party looks set to make more House gains than at any Midterms since Watergate.

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RochdalePioneers

FAKE NEWS

FrancisUrquhart

Racist post.....

Second like trump in 2020.

FrancisUrquhart

What the f##k has happened to England in the second half. Mistake after mistake.

ydoethur

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

SandyRentool

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

FrancisUrquhart

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

At my old school, every year they used to read out all those old boys that died and aged they died....suffrice to say it was an extremely long list of very young men.

numbertwelve

I’d caution against a Trump loss in 2020 or a loss of the nomination. On the nomination front he has the base eating out of his hands. There’s no-one at present who can neutralise that. If he runs in 2020 he gets the nomination. Presidents who lose a primary battle are like hens teeth and it’s unprecedented in the modern era.

The last sitting president to lose a re-election battle was Bush 1 26 years ago and that was after 12 years of GOP control of the executive. I don’t think Trump has it sewn up but neither should he be underestimated. The Democrats have a sticky primary fight on their hands and there are dangers for them should they choose either a moderate or a more leftist candidate.

The midterms don’t look to be quite as “good” a result as first thought for the GOP but the close races in Florida and success in places like Missouri and Florida (even with the latest news from there on the senate count) shouldn’t write them off. Yes Trumps weakness is the rust belt turning against him but he knows how to energise a base and depending on the democrat candidate could still run a successful cling to nurse strategy.

Hes still got a tough battle on his hands, make no doubt, but he’ll get through the first round and in the general I’d still say, at this present time, we’re on a knife edge. A lot will also depend on just who the democrats choose to go with in 2020.

MarqueeMark

I think the lesson of the 2018 mid-terms was that if you want to get re-elected, you stick with the President or perish. I just can't see any Republican wanting to waste $100m or so in a futile bid to take on Trump for the nomination.

MarqueeMark

Underhill!!!

Edit: damn it - offside.....

dixiedean

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

Big_G_NorthWales

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Man's inhumanity to man

David_Evershed

LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS

Ealing LB, Dormers Wells
Lab 1868 [72.1%; +2.9%]
Con 429 [16.6%; +0.7%]
LD Nigel Bakhai 188 [7.3%; +2.7%]
Green 106 [4.1%; -3.2%]

Turnout 26%
Lab Hold
Percentage change from 2018

Harlow DC, Bush Fair
Labour 543 [45.0%; +0.0%]
Con 460 [38.1%; -0.8%]
UKIP 103 [8.5%; -2.5%]
Harlow Alliance 63 [5.2%; +5.2%]
LD Lesley Rideout 39 [3.2%; -1.8%]

Turnout 21.77%
Lab Hold
Percentage change from 2018

Torridge DC, Holsworthy
Conservative 698 [56.4%; +11.5%]
Ind 314 [25.4%; +25.4%]
LD Christopher Styles-Power 151 [12.2%; -5.3%]
Lab 75 [6.1%; +6.1%]

Turnout 35.04%
Con Hold
Percentage change from 2015

Harlow BC, Nettleswell
Labour 497 [50.2%; -0.7%]
Con 254 [25.6%; -13.0%]
Harlow Alliance 99 [10.0%; +10.0%]
UKIP 98 [9.9%; +3.6%]
LD Robert Thurston 43 [4.3%; +0.2%]

Turnout 18.1%
Lab Hold
Percentage change from 2015

FrancisUrquhart

Bent ref.....

Sunil_Prasannan

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

FrancisUrquhart

England keep making so many silly mistakes.

Alistair

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

Mail in ballots not counted because mail centre was locked down due to the pipe bomber.

Just incredible.

NickPalmer

Must admit I'm a bit sated with US elections at the moment, both in general and in terms of PB threads - was a really exciting week, but maybe enough for a while.

ydoethur

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I was walking on Cannock Chase earlier and dropped by the Soldatenfriedhof, the German war cemetery. Just under 5,000 dead from the two world wars, split roughly 50/50 for each one.

You notice how young most of them were. I'd guess the modal age was 24.

With regard to the Armistice, there were of course offensives and therefore deaths more or less literally up to the last minute as some generals thought the Germans would be allowed to keep the territory they held at the ceasefire. Doesn't say much for the French and British high commands that Germany had sued for armistice because otherwise it was utter defeat and that the Allies would be dictating terms. That led to a truly senseless waste of life.

FrancisUrquhart

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

dixiedean

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Amen.
It is quite sobering to think he could easily have been around as the grand old man of British literature as late as the 1980's...

David_Evershed

Full-time

England 15-16 New Zealand

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

I would be careful about statements like that. He wrote War poetry of the highest standard. Would he have produced anything in peace? One of the greatest war poets, Edward Thomas, who had been a poet before the war, had had writer's block before going into the trenches. Almost all his good poetry dates from the First World War, when the misery and boredom of the trenches and indeed furlough saw his brain seek other outlets. He was killed, but I doubt if he would have produced anything worth reading had he lived.

This is not the same as saying it is a good thing Owen or Thomas was killed - just that I don't think it would necessarily have made a difference to their literary output had they lived. Music, now, is different. Who knows what George Butterworth might have achieved had he lived, or Ivor Gurney had he not gone mad?

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I haven't a ghost of an understanding of this post.

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Amen.
It is quite sobering to think he could easily have been around as the grand old man of British literature as late as the 1980's...

A more talented Robert Graves? Well, maybe. But Graves didn't write War poetry. Indeed, the only really significant impact he War seems to have had in his output is Goodbye to All That.

dixiedean

W.r.t. Trump, I think much will depend on the polling. If a defeat looks likely, he will not run. Using his age/health as an excuse.
His huuuuge ego and narcissism would not have it any other way.

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

W.r.t. Trump, I think much will depend on the polling. If a defeat looks likely, he will not run. Using his age/health as an excuse.
His huuuuge ego and narcissism would not have it any other way.

Will the huuuuge ego allow him to admit he might lose?

Or will he, a la Corbyn, say the polls were wrong last time and he'll win again?

another_richard

FrancisUrquhart said:

England keep making so many silly mistakes.

Teams which don't expect to win will always find ways to not win.

David_Evershed

Alistair said:

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

Mail in ballots not counted because mail centre was locked down due to the pipe bomber.

Just incredible.

Alistair said:

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

Mail in ballots not counted because mail centre was locked down due to the pipe bomber.

Just incredible.

Alistair said:

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/postal-facility-locked-pro-trump-mail-bomber-may-thousands-ballots-democrat-heavy-district/

Mail in ballots not counted because mail centre was locked down due to the pipe bomber.

Just incredible.

But is was claimed the scores of unopened ballots arrived after the cut off time.

Recidivist

Something patriotic but not nationalistic for the day of big memories tomorrow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWhOO9Q323Y

dixiedean

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

I would be careful about statements like that. He wrote War poetry of the highest standard. Would he have produced anything in peace? One of the greatest war poets, Edward Thomas, who had been a poet before the war, had had writer's block before going into the trenches. Almost all his good poetry dates from the First World War, when the misery and boredom of the trenches and indeed furlough saw his brain seek other outlets. He was killed, but I doubt if he would have produced anything worth reading had he lived.

This is not the same as saying it is a good thing Owen or Thomas was killed - just that I don't think it would necessarily have made a difference to their literary output had they lived. Music, now, is different. Who knows what George Butterworth might have achieved had he lived, or Ivor Gurney had he not gone mad?

Fair point. A counter factual we sadly won't ever be able to ascertain one way or the other.

another_richard

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

It might have been better to have continued the fighting for another month or two - thereby reducing the likelihood of a rematch a generation later.

Pulpstar

@Nickpalmer Nah, I think its made a nice change from Brexit. Some stuff to actually bet on, and the shenanigans around the vote particularly in Florida are worthy odlf extensive comment.
We've had discussion about the midges for a few weeks. Brexit talk is going on for eternity

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

I would be careful about statements like that. He wrote War poetry of the highest standard. Would he have produced anything in peace? One of the greatest war poets, Edward Thomas, who had been a poet before the war, had had writer's block before going into the trenches. Almost all his good poetry dates from the First World War, when the misery and boredom of the trenches and indeed furlough saw his brain seek other outlets. He was killed, but I doubt if he would have produced anything worth reading had he lived.

This is not the same as saying it is a good thing Owen or Thomas was killed - just that I don't think it would necessarily have made a difference to their literary output had they lived. Music, now, is different. Who knows what George Butterworth might have achieved had he lived, or Ivor Gurney had he not gone mad?

Fair point. A counter factual we sadly won't ever be able to ascertain one way or the other.

And which pervades the work of, for example, Vera Brittain.

Pulpstar

Midges = midterm

another_richard

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

It should be remembered that both Truman in 1952 and LBJ in 1968 had already been re-elected once. As was Coolidge in 1928.

ThomasNashe

dixiedean said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Amen.
It is quite sobering to think he could easily have been around as the grand old man of British literature as late as the 1980's...

Edward Thomas, killed at Ypres in 1917, was a far greater poet in my view.

ydoethur

another_richard said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

It might have been better to have continued the fighting for another month or two - thereby reducing the likelihood of a rematch a generation later.

It is true an invasion and occupation of Germany might have eliminated the Dolschtoss, Freikorps, SPD, old Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all at a stroke.

But I don't think it's entirely fair to blame German politicians who had only newly taken power for seeking to save lives by ending a war they knew was hopeless, or for the mistakes Wilson in particular made afterwards (unfashionable though it is to blame Wilson for the failures).

Theuniondivvie

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

I would be careful about statements like that. He wrote War poetry of the highest standard. Would he have produced anything in peace? One of the greatest war poets, Edward Thomas, who had been a poet before the war, had had writer's block before going into the trenches. Almost all his good poetry dates from the First World War, when the misery and boredom of the trenches and indeed furlough saw his brain seek other outlets. He was killed, but I doubt if he would have produced anything worth reading had he lived.

This is not the same as saying it is a good thing Owen or Thomas was killed - just that I don't think it would necessarily have made a difference to their literary output had they lived. Music, now, is different. Who knows what George Butterworth might have achieved had he lived, or Ivor Gurney had he not gone mad?

I guess we'll never know, but it would be nice to think that like Sassoon & Graves he'd have branched out into becoming a (very) interesting memoirist and prose writer.

ydoethur

ThomasNashe said:

dixiedean said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Amen.
It is quite sobering to think he could easily have been around as the grand old man of British literature as late as the 1980's...

Edward Thomas, killed at Ypres in 1917, was a far greater poet in my view.

Anyone interested in this discussion or wishing to judge that for themselves, check out this website:

https://www.warpoetry.co.uk/firstWWarpoets.html

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

Midges = midterm

LOL!

David_Evershed

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I haven't a ghost of an understanding of this post.

Disallowed try by Endland (versus NZ)

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

ThomasNashe

ydoethur said:

ThomasNashe said:

dixiedean said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Amen.
It is quite sobering to think he could easily have been around as the grand old man of British literature as late as the 1980's...

Edward Thomas, killed at Ypres in 1917, was a far greater poet in my view.

Anyone interested in this discussion or wishing to judge that for themselves, check out this website:

https://www.warpoetry.co.uk/firstWWarpoets.html

Not all Thomas's poems took the war as their subject, or if thy did, they did so tangentially, subtly. Place, environment and language were his main themes. And though he had been an active reviewer and prose writer for a decade or so before the war, it was only in the war years that he started to write poetry - under the influence of Robert Frost. But he is the one victim of the war who I'm sure would have gone on to become a major literary figure had he survived.

I'm much less sure about Owen, though his last few poems ('Exposure', 'Strange Meeting') suggest that he was developing in quite interesting ways.

ydoethur

David_Evershed said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I haven't a ghost of an understanding of this post.

Disallowed try by Endland (versus NZ)

My awesome punning is more wasted than the President of the Commission, it seems.

rottenborough

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

Not sure about the stressful job bit. Most presidents find the job highly stressful and intense because they bother to take the responsibility seriously.

Afraid I see no evidence of that from this clown.

twistedfirestopper3

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

And married to an attractive woman 25 years his junior. Maybe she can be persuaded back into the marital bed to work on him.....

Charles

FrancisUrquhart said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

At my old school, every year they used to read out all those old boys that died and aged they died....suffrice to say it was an extremely long list of very young men.

In 2014 my family hosted a memorial for the 32 members of the family and staff who died in the first world war (26 family, including my great grandfather, and 6 staff). It was unexpectedly moving.

IanB2

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

Not sure about the stressful job bit. Most presidents find the job highly stressful and intense because they bother to take the responsibility seriously.

Afraid I see no evidence of that from this clown.

Like Boris, he is playing the role for laughs and kicks, not doing the job seriously.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I was walking on Cannock Chase earlier and dropped by the Soldatenfriedhof, the German war cemetery. Just under 5,000 dead from the two world wars, split roughly 50/50 for each one.

You notice how young most of them were. I'd guess the modal age was 24.

With regard to the Armistice, there were of course offensives and therefore deaths more or less literally up to the last minute as some generals thought the Germans would be allowed to keep the territory they held at the ceasefire. Doesn't say much for the French and British high commands that Germany had sued for armistice because otherwise it was utter defeat and that the Allies would be dictating terms. That led to a truly senseless waste of life.

Surely the allies did dictate terms for peace? In the famous railway carriage. Didn't Foch say no to anything the Germans wanted?

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I was walking on Cannock Chase earlier and dropped by the Soldatenfriedhof, the German war cemetery. Just under 5,000 dead from the two world wars, split roughly 50/50 for each one.

You notice how young most of them were. I'd guess the modal age was 24.

With regard to the Armistice, there were of course offensives and therefore deaths more or less literally up to the last minute as some generals thought the Germans would be allowed to keep the territory they held at the ceasefire. Doesn't say much for the French and British high commands that Germany had sued for armistice because otherwise it was utter defeat and that the Allies would be dictating terms. That led to a truly senseless waste of life.

Surely the allies did dictate terms for peace? In the famous railway carriage. Didn't Foch say no to anything the Germans wanted?

Yes. My point was that never seems to have been communicated to the frontline commanders, who were afraid it would be a negotiated peace with the Germans holding their territory. So they wasted lives taking towns on the morning of the armistice.

Edit - by the way, I think it was Maxime Weygand who was there rejecting German demands, not Foch.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

McPrejudice...

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/meet-paul-pomroy-mcdonald-s-uk-boss-hits-back-over-obesity-claims-and-doesn-t-rule-out-top-job-a3985901.html

Haven’t not eaten in a McDonald’s for 20+ years I have no idea what their offerings are like.

In a serious note, they are apparently doing amazingly well with delivery. How bloody lazy are people! I find the whole deliveroo / Uber eats mind boggling as they are really expensive services, but getting a McDonald’s delivered is another level.

Sunil_Prasannan

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I was walking on Cannock Chase earlier and dropped by the Soldatenfriedhof, the German war cemetery. Just under 5,000 dead from the two world wars, split roughly 50/50 for each one.

You notice how young most of them were. I'd guess the modal age was 24.

With regard to the Armistice, there were of course offensives and therefore deaths more or less literally up to the last minute as some generals thought the Germans would be allowed to keep the territory they held at the ceasefire. Doesn't say much for the French and British high commands that Germany had sued for armistice because otherwise it was utter defeat and that the Allies would be dictating terms. That led to a truly senseless waste of life.

Surely the allies did dictate terms for peace? In the famous railway carriage. Didn't Foch say no to anything the Germans wanted?

The same carriage where Hitler dicated terms to the French in June 1940 - and which was promptly destroyed by the Germans.

JosiasJessop

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I recently walked through a village on the Derbyshire / Leicestershire border, and came across a plaque commemorating the old school headmaster, who was the first soldier killed on the Home Front in WW1.

https://livesofthefirstworldwar.org/lifestory/2173716

Quite poignant.

williamglenn

Recidivist said:

Something patriotic but not nationalistic for the day of big memories tomorrow.

This is another of Eric Bogle's that's equally as good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEMcLcGJ79s

Nigelb

NickPalmer said:

Must admit I'm a bit sated with US elections at the moment, both in general and in terms of PB threads - was a really exciting week, but maybe enough for a while.

No need to read ‘em.
But if Mike is right (& I think he likely is), there are some interesting long odds bets available.

DecrepitJohnL

ThomasNashe said:

ydoethur said:

ThomasNashe said:

dixiedean said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Amen.
It is quite sobering to think he could easily have been around as the grand old man of British literature as late as the 1980's...

Edward Thomas, killed at Ypres in 1917, was a far greater poet in my view.

Anyone interested in this discussion or wishing to judge that for themselves, check out this website:

https://www.warpoetry.co.uk/firstWWarpoets.html

Not all Thomas's poems took the war as their subject, or if thy did, they did so tangentially, subtly. Place, environment and language were his main themes. And though he had been an active reviewer and prose writer for a decade or so before the war, it was only in the war years that he started to write poetry - under the influence of Robert Frost. But he is the one victim of the war who I'm sure would have gone on to become a major literary figure had he survived.

I'm much less sure about Owen, though his last few poems ('Exposure', 'Strange Meeting') suggest that he was developing in quite interesting ways.

Edward Thomas -- we did him for O-level many decades back.

This is no case of petty right or wrong
That politicians or philosophers
Can judge. I hate not Germans, nor grow hot
With love of Englishmen, to please newspapers.
Beside my hate for one fat patriot
My hatred of the Kaiser is love true

That said, so far as I remember from English lessons, he wrote one good poem, Adelstrop, and all the rest. Our teachers were adamant we only needed to analyse that one.

DecrepitJohnL

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

Not sure about the stressful job bit. Most presidents find the job highly stressful and intense because they bother to take the responsibility seriously.

Afraid I see no evidence of that from this clown.

Like Boris, he is playing the role for laughs and kicks, not doing the job seriously.

The problem is that Trump has left a massive gap for that old neocon John Bolton to run America's foreign policy. And for the House Republicans to run domestic and economic policy.

JohnWheatley

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Utterly utterly unhistorical comment. In a war somebody has to be the last to die. It is no more unfortunate than being the first die. You are still dead.
The Germans had lost by September 1914, it just took 4 years for them to come to terms with that

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

I would be careful about statements like that. He wrote War poetry of the highest standard. Would he have produced anything in peace? One of the greatest war poets, Edward Thomas, who had been a poet before the war, had had writer's block before going into the trenches. Almost all his good poetry dates from the First World War, when the misery and boredom of the trenches and indeed furlough saw his brain seek other outlets. He was killed, but I doubt if he would have produced anything worth reading had he lived...

Yes, I remember Adlestrop.

Morris_Dancer

F1: interesting qualifying. Both Hamilton and Vettel may have penalties.

JohnWheatley

Sunil_Prasannan said:

dixiedean said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Indeed. It is often forgotten that the greatest of the War poets, Wilfrid Owen, was killed on November 4, 1918. Age just 25. Goodness knows what he could have produced had he lived another week.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori

Owen's popularity is a recent phenomenon he went unknown until the 60's, when he was rediscovered because his poems fitted that era

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: interesting qualifying. Both Hamilton and Vettel may have penalties.

Was the Vettel one a s stupid as it sounds? Surely he must know the weighbridge procedures by now ...

ydoethur

JohnWheatley said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Utterly utterly unhistorical comment. In a war somebody has to be the last to die. It is no more unfortunate than being the first die. You are still dead.
The Germans had lost by September 1914, it just took 4 years for them to come to terms with that

Epic self-awareness fail in the final two sentences in light of the first...

Omnium

If you think Trump won't make the course then Trump exit in 2020+ seems quite short -1.23/1.24. I think its hard to see him not being the nominee and yet being in place in 2020.

I've layed that to back 1.45s on the nomination.

MarqueeMark

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I recently walked through a village on the Derbyshire / Leicestershire border, and came across a plaque commemorating the old school headmaster, who was the first soldier killed on the Home Front in WW1.

https://livesofthefirstworldwar.org/lifestory/2173716

Quite poignant.

Worth pointing people to this: Thankful Villages

"In hazy autumn sunlight, this corner of Gloucestershire might well have been rendered in watercolour. All the components of tourist-brochure Britain are here - the red phone box, the winding lanes, the wisteria draped around the windows.

But one normally ubiquitous feature is missing. Unlike the overwhelming majority of British settlements, Upper Slaughter has no war memorial.

Instead, tucked away in the village hall are two modest wooden plaques. They celebrate the men, and one woman, from the village who served in both world wars and, in every case, returned home.

For it is not only its postcard charm that offers pacific contrast to the name Upper Slaughter. It is that rarest of British locations, a "thankful village" - the term coined in the 1930s by the writer Arthur Mee to describe the handful of communities which suffered no military fatalities in World War I.

Mee identified 32 such places, a figure that has been revised upwards in recent years to 52. Of these, just 14 have, like Upper Slaughter, come to be known as doubly thankful - also losing no-one from WWII."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15671943

TheScreamingEagles

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

Interesting. It has occurred to me that in the event of Brexit being cancelled, it might be an idea for the Tories and Labour to get rid of FPTP.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

An AV thread? You tease us, sir!

FF43

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I think I heard that Lloyd George had a poetic notion of the guns falling silent on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. He instructed his generals and set up the PR accordingly. One general felt after four years of relentless killing that he wasn't going to waste a single soldier's life to satisfy Lloyd George's fancy and ordered an immediate ceasefire and didn't wait until 11am. The news got out, bypassing the PR operation. Lloyd George was furious and made sure the general didn't get his war bounty, which was a massive amount of money in 1918 terms.

I don't know if this is true or not.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, he did appear to be beckoned onto the weigh bridge. However, you're right that he knows the procedures perfectly well. So, yes. Very dumb.

Frustration is understandable given the timing but it's still daft.

Mind you, Hamilton ended up obstructing two people. They should both get penalties. Suspect Hamilton will get something like 3, and Vettel may end up starting at the back.

Omnium

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

Interesting. It has occurred to me that in the event of Brexit being cancelled, it might be an idea for the Tories and Labour to get rid of FPTP.

To get less seats?

Albeit unfairly the LD episode in government from 2010-2015 doesn't exactly encourage such change.

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

When was the last time an eligible incumbent was not the party's nominee due to being dumped (or indeed, for any other reason)? I come up with 1968, 1952 and prior to that Coolidge's unforced decision to retire in 1928. That includes renominees such as Carter, Ford, and Hoover(!).

Mind you, Trump has been industriously rewriting many rules. But he will be the front runner if he stands unless he is actually impeached - possibly not even that would alter it. Look at how the Democrats would probably still have won the White House if WC had been the candidate in 2000 rather than that hapless slimeball Gore. And I don't think he will withdraw voluntarily, he's simply too egotistical.

72% if anything looks on the low side.

Agreed. That being said, he's 73 years old, eats Macdonalds, drinks coke, has an extremely stressful job, and doesn't exercise. So, the chance of some kind of health incident in the next two years is non trivial.

McPrejudice...

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/meet-paul-pomroy-mcdonald-s-uk-boss-hits-back-over-obesity-claims-and-doesn-t-rule-out-top-job-a3985901.html

Haven’t not eaten in a McDonald’s for 20+ years I have no idea what their offerings are like.

In a serious note, they are apparently doing amazingly well with delivery. How bloody lazy are people! I find the whole deliveroo / Uber eats mind boggling as they are really expensive services, but getting a McDonald’s delivered is another level.

Most weeks I grab a McDonalds on the way back from Sainsbury's. I cannot say their (other) customers look particularly fat. The whole obesity debate seems founded on prejudice which is a shame for such an important subject. A bit like Brexit, come to think of it.

williamglenn

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

An AV thread? You tease us, sir!

Has the "PB" voting system ever been considered? The polling station opens at a random time during the day, and only the first vote gets registered.

OldKingCole

One of the most important, in the life sense, teachers I had was a man who had been a PoW in Singapore.

Since then I have seen several war cemeteries. The ‘worst’, in the sense of waste of life, was that beside the River Kwai in Thailand.

I told my wife what our teacher had told us and she cried too.

DecrepitJohnL

FF43 said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

I think I heard that Lloyd George had a poetic notion of the guns falling silent on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. He instructed his generals and set up the PR accordingly. One general felt after four years of relentless killing that he wasn't going to waste a single soldier's life to satisfy Lloyd George's fancy and ordered an immediate ceasefire and didn't wait until 11am. The news got out, bypassing the PR operation. Lloyd George was furious and made sure the general didn't get his war bounty, which was a massive amount of money in 1918 terms.

I don't know if this is true or not.

The recent BBC series, 100 Days to Victory, is worth catching on iplayer.
How the Allies turned the tide in the final months of 1918 to win the First World War.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bpvyb1

AlastairMeeks

The two lines that conjure up the senselessness of the Great War best for me were written by a poet who is now most remembered as the most jingoistic of writers:

"If any question why we died
Tell them, because our fathers lied"

So much in so few simple words.

FrancisUrquhart

Labour MPs criticise Corbyn for saying 'we can't stop' Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/labour-mps-criticise-corbyn-for-saying-we-cant-stop-brexit

I am sure the cult will still square the circle of him being anti-Brexit.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, he did appear to be beckoned onto the weigh bridge. However, you're right that he knows the procedures perfectly well. So, yes. Very dumb.

Frustration is understandable given the timing but it's still daft.

Mind you, Hamilton ended up obstructing two people. They should both get penalties. Suspect Hamilton will get something like 3, and Vettel may end up starting at the back.

I haven't seen the Hamilton incidents on video, so can't comment (only seen a still, which is next to worthless). But the stewards' statement on Vettel seems rather strong.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, Vettel's is slam dunk, I think. Hamilton's should be very likely too.

Glad I'd planned to write the pre-race ramble tomorrow anyway, as it could take a while for decisions to come through.

If markets come up to lead the first lap, worth checking the Bottas/Raikkonen odds.

OldKingCole

AlastairMeeks said:

The two lines that conjure up the senselessness of the Great War best for me were written by a poet who is now most remembered as the most jingoistic of writers:

"If any question why we died
Tell them, because our fathers lied"

So much in so few simple words.

Somewhere I came across a story of a female schoolteacher in the 30’s who in, in middle age, wore an engagement ring.

And told the girls in her class that 'Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori’ was one of the most stupid lines ever written.

Sunil_Prasannan

ydoethur said:

JohnWheatley said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Utterly utterly unhistorical comment. In a war somebody has to be the last to die. It is no more unfortunate than being the first die. You are still dead.
The Germans had lost by September 1914, it just took 4 years for them to come to terms with that

Epic self-awareness fail in the final two sentences in light of the first...

German failure to capture Paris in 1914 was a bit like German failure to defeat Britain in 1940 or to capture Moscow in 1941.

shiney2

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MPs criticise Corbyn for saying 'we can't stop' Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/labour-mps-criticise-corbyn-for-saying-we-cant-stop-brexit

I am sure the cult will still square the circle of him being anti-Brexit.

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus with no power - ignore.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Yokhin/status/1061328042423914496

matt

shiney2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MPs criticise Corbyn for saying 'we can't stop' Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/labour-mps-criticise-corbyn-for-saying-we-cant-stop-brexit

I am sure the cult will still square the circle of him being anti-Brexit.

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus with no power - ignore.

A nihilist speaks.

TudorRose

shiney2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MPs criticise Corbyn for saying 'we can't stop' Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/labour-mps-criticise-corbyn-for-saying-we-cant-stop-brexit

I am sure the cult will still square the circle of him being anti-Brexit.

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus with no power - ignore.

I suspect Labour will end up officially abstaining and (in effect) allow their MPs to vote as they see fit. This will avoid too much parading of internal disagreements and allow them to argue (i) that they didn't stand in the way of Brexit and (ii) that they didn't support May's Brexit.

shiney2

Objectivity

matt said:

shiney2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MPs criticise Corbyn for saying 'we can't stop' Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/labour-mps-criticise-corbyn-for-saying-we-cant-stop-brexit

I am sure the cult will still square the circle of him being anti-Brexit.

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus with no power - ignore.

A nihilist speaks.

Objectivity is quite well thought of in some circles.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

There is no Alternative?

Barnesian

Recidivist said:

Something patriotic but not nationalistic for the day of big memories tomorrow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWhOO9Q323Y

"Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism when hate of people other than your own comes first."

Charles de Gaulle

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

There is no Alternative?

perhaps we should take a vote ?

Though I regard an AV thread as a rank good choice....

viewcode

shiney2 said:

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus.

Aren't those the trigger words for the Winter Soldier?

ydoethur

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

JohnWheatley said:

SandyRentool said:

Off topic, but topical - I've just attended a dedication service for a new war memorial in our village . I learnt that one of those listed was killed on 8th November 1918. Three days before the armistice. He was 19.

Utterly, utterly senseless.

Utterly utterly unhistorical comment. In a war somebody has to be the last to die. It is no more unfortunate than being the first die. You are still dead.
The Germans had lost by September 1914, it just took 4 years for them to come to terms with that

Epic self-awareness fail in the final two sentences in light of the first...

German failure to capture Paris in 1914 was a bit like German failure to defeat Britain in 1940 or to capture Moscow in 1941.

I will agree entirely that summer 1914 and the advance in Paris, was the Germans' best chance of winning, but it is something of an exaggeration to say it was their only chance.

Sunil_Prasannan

viewcode said:

shiney2 said:

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus.

Aren't those the trigger words for the Winter Soldier?

Eta Kooram Nah Smech!

shiney2

TudorRose said:

shiney2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MPs criticise Corbyn for saying 'we can't stop' Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/10/labour-mps-criticise-corbyn-for-saying-we-cant-stop-brexit

I am sure the cult will still square the circle of him being anti-Brexit.

streeting, umuna, leslie - Blairite detritus with no power - ignore.

I suspect Labour will end up officially abstaining and (in effect) allow their MPs to vote as they see fit. This will avoid too much parading of internal disagreements and allow them to argue (i) that they didn't stand in the way of Brexit and (ii) that they didn't support May's Brexit.

(ii) can be improved by outright opposition.

And if Milne &co have their way I rather suspect a 3LineWhip will be applied. Helps to identify the 'Tories' hiding in the PLP you see.

Sunil_Prasannan

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

There is no Alternative?

perhaps we should take a vote ?

Though I regard an AV thread as a rank good choice....

The same AV rejected by the UK voters by 68% to 32%?

AlastairMeeks

I've known worse days to be a Norwich City fan.

Nigelb

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Events permitting, the morning thread shall be about electoral reform.

There is no Alternative?

perhaps we should take a vote ?

Though I regard an AV thread as a rank good choice....

The same AV rejected by the UK voters by 68% to 32%?

You are so reductive, Sunil.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1061322527933415426

welshowl

AlastairMeeks said:

I've known worse days to be a Norwich City fan.

Indeed. I imagine. Has TSE put a baa ( I know) on talking about rugby since Wales have just won?

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

I've known worse days to be a Norwich City fan.

You lot deserved it after the events of January 2016.