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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging incumbent
Yesterday one of the midterm contenders who received a lot of publicity during the campaign, Richard Ojeda, announced that he was running for the presidency and published his first campaign video, see above.
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Like Ojeda?
Is it possible ? Yes, yes it is. I'm on.
So bar Trump I can't see anyone else able to take the same path to the White House..
In that case there is no telling who the best candidate might be
https://twitter.com/kazweida/status/1062100579835695104?s=21
Going to the gym doesn't mean you need to turn off your mind (though sadly for many, it does).
Unless they already have significant fundraising and/or name awareness, there is very little time for them to establish themselves - and a losing Congressional candidate doesn't have much of a platform (and O'Rourke has already sucked up much of the oxygen available to such candidates... and funds).
I don't think 250/1 is overly generous.
https://twitter.com/jackmatt81/status/1062286839200002049?s=21
I think there's a big gap for someone new and optimistic to break into. Is Ojeda the one to do it? Lack of experience is nothing like the bar it once was and he has to have a better chance than his odds suggest.
How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.
It's hard to tell just where this is going to go right now. Trump's appointment of Whitaker is clearly unconstitutional, and quite possibly further evidence of obstruction. Obviously intended to stop the Mueller investigation, it could have prompted precipitate action by him.
That said, it has seen so much pushback, and not only from Democrats, that it looks as though Trump might try to appoint someone else quite quickly (Christie is reportedly being considered)... so Mueller might not rush to indict until he is ready.
a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
b) 2016 was extremely close
c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from
The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-senator.html
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1062280559911714817
His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
There are still a number of Arizona state positions that are being hotly contested with more votes to be counted.
https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
Mueller is awesome
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate
He also has a stellar team of specialist prosecutors.
She is clueless
Unlikely but if we have learnt anything in recent years it is that the unlikely can happen.
However a Dem contest is way less profitable than the GOP
Colin Powell 3 (WA), John Kasich 1 (TX), Ron Paul 1 (TX), Bernie Sanders 1 (HI), Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (WA)
However I think things like if one candidate won the popular vote comfortably there might be momentum to do the right thing or if the congressional gerrymander has distorted the result.
Words which give some positive or negative spin should be avoided by the ONS.
https://www.emptywheel.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/180928-Miller-Response.pdf
It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
Yes agreed - that's very poor from the ONS, they should stick to the data.
Wasn't expecting much as the critic reviews have been pretty dismissive but in fact it was a great film - not flawless but a really enjoyable watch.
I recommend it to anyone who hasn't yet seen it - worth seeing on the big screen.