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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from anothe

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay survives a confidence vote she’d be immune from another challenge for a year

After an extraordinary 24hrs at Westminster in which a total, as I write, of six ministers having resigned all the talk now is that Theresa May could soon be facing a confidence vote.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,963
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,963
    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1063072940743376897
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Bloody useless woman would have been more apt than bloody difficult ...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Are the ERG going to trigger the contest on Friday to give themselves the whole weekend to campaign against May?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,768
    Have we tracked down Gove yet?

    Last time he went missing for several hours he was plotting to knife Boris...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Gove is going to have to come out of hiding at some point. He can't stay in a quantum superposition of Brexit secretary/Not brexit secretary/resigned/unresigned forever.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,963
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063083383641772038
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    As a straw (no, bale) in the wind, I’ve just had an email discussing large and long term physical investments in the U.K. economy and the message being all about political risk. I genuinely never thought I’d see such a thing. I strongly suspect that I’m not the only person seeing these.

    Choices can have adverse consequences it appears.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,196
    grabcocque said:

    Gove is going to have to come out of hiding at some point. He can't stay in a quantum superposition of Brexit secretary/Not brexit secretary/resigned/unresigned forever.

    Lots of work to do at DEFRA.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    In its pointlessness and potential for lasting bitterness this is reminiscent of the Irish Civil War with May in the role of Collins and JRM as De Valera
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    shiney2 said:

    Sky: they are only finding third raters from the Gov to support Theresa. Alan Duncan is their top find!

    Supporting this Deal is going to be CV strychnine for any of her wannabe successors. *Nobody* wants to touch it.

    I understand Mr Gove is having his wisdom teeth fixed..

    Javid and Hunt are going way down in my estimation. If they are too cowardly to go out and fight hard for this deal even though they back it, or too cowardly to resign if they do not back it, then they clearly lack any spine whatsoever.

  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1063070673831149568?s=21

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Sky: they are only finding third raters from the Gov to support Theresa. Alan Duncan is their top find!

    Supporting this Deal is going to be CV strychnine for any of her wannabe successors. *Nobody* wants to touch it.

    I understand Mr Gove is having his wisdom teeth fixed..

    Javid and Hunt are going way down in my estimation. If they are too cowardly to go out and fight hard for this deal even though they back it, or too cowardly to resign if they do not back it, then they clearly lack any spine whatsoever.


    kle I think you are being a bit harsh, they are probably meeting colleagues now rather than briefing the cameras
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Immune from challenge but not safe since she still cannot get any legislation through anymore (DUP plus rebels), so she will have to resign by choice at some point, I presume once her deal is actually formally rejected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited November 2018
    TheWhiteRabbit said:



    kle I think you are being a bit harsh, they are probably meeting colleagues now rather than briefing the cameras

    We shall see - if they don't resign but do not emerge to fight hard for the deal either, my comment will stand. If they do quit or fight hard, I will respect them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    kle4 said:

    Immune from challenge but not safe since she still cannot get any legislation through anymore (DUP plus rebels), so she will have to resign by choice at some point, I presume once her deal is actually formally rejected.

    Well quite. What's the phrase "In office, but fucking useless"?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,073
    I think we know of about 3 letters which have been made public. One might presume that the likes of Boris and Davis will have written them as well. It does seem extraordinary that we have not had an announcement that we have 48+. Its not a very high number. The fact that even now it seems to be a struggle suggests to me that May just might be a lot safer than she currently looks (not hard, someone hanging on with one hand to a burning window 10 stories up looks to be in a pretty good position by comparison at the moment).

    What May has never really got, as the election showed par excellence, was that her job is to persuade people and to organise a campaign to build support. In the last 24 hours about the only Tory I have seen consistently supporting her is Rory the Tory. Others have had a go at JRM and other scum bags but are noticeably more reticent about supporting her. Where are her lieutenants? Why are cabinet ministers not in every studio and radio station making the case for this deal? On the rumours about 20 of them supported it. Does she really think it will happen by itself or because she thinks it is the right thing?

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    grabcocque said:

    Gove is going to have to come out of hiding at some point. He can't stay in a quantum superposition of Brexit secretary/Not brexit secretary/resigned/unresigned forever.

    I've still not seen an answer as to why we need Brexit secretary. They seem to claim they never see anything until it is too late anyway, so just have the department report directly to the PM.

    It's one less Cabinet Minister to inevitably resign.
    He's probably waiting to see if the 47.99 letters tick over today or tomorrow.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184

    That is Amber Rudd?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,201
    https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1063076827818790912
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063083383641772038

    Can drink to that! Cheers!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    TGOHF said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1063072940743376897

    I think that must be the right thing to do. It's high-risk, for all the reasons we've explored, and highly unsatisfactory on a number of counts, but since there is no chance at all of the EU agreeing a better deal than the PM has managed to achieve, and since leaving without a deal would be absolutely catastrophic, the only possible way out is to reverse the People's Vote, and the only possible way of doing that with sufficient democratic cover would be to re-run it. Of course, it would be a 50-50 shot at best, but that's better than a 100% chance of disaster.
    has anyone calling for a second referendum any idea what the question might be ?
    I think the people vote would want the following question


    In light of the deal struck by Theresa May would you like to

    (A) remain in the EU
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    edited November 2018
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184

    Amber Rudd?

    EDIT I see Philip got there seconds before me with the same thought! If she has lost Rudd....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063083383641772038

    You cannot balance on two stilts which are resting on separate treadmills forever, the party had a good run.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1063070673831149568?s=21

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
    I'm not sure what you think Jonathan has done?

    This is the Tories doing this to themselves...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,904
    Julian Smith ought to be the man with the best information on where Conservative MPs stand.

    He thought he could get the deal through parliament. If he's even close to being correct, surely there is no way Theresa May can lose a vote of no confidence.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    Sky: they are only finding third raters from the Gov to support Theresa. Alan Duncan is their top find!

    Supporting this Deal is going to be CV strychnine for any of her wannabe successors. *Nobody* wants to touch it.

    I understand Mr Gove is having his wisdom teeth fixed..

    Javid and Hunt are going way down in my estimation. If they are too cowardly to go out and fight hard for this deal even though they back it, or too cowardly to resign if they do not back it, then they clearly lack any spine whatsoever.


    Hunt's been in a select committee meeting all day, hasn't he?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    houndtang said:

    In its pointlessness and potential for lasting bitterness this is reminiscent of the Irish Civil War with May in the role of Collins and JRM as De Valera

    Yes, that's why I commented that if May gets through a VONC she should refrain from any motor tours of the byways of deepest Somerset.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184

    I get that. Who replaces her and what will they do given May had failed to deal with the split in the party, not caused it?
    houndtang said:

    In its pointlessness and potential for lasting bitterness this is reminiscent of the Irish Civil War with May in the role of Collins and JRM as De Valera

    Dispiriting stuff.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    Immune from challenge but not safe since she still cannot get any legislation through anymore (DUP plus rebels), so she will have to resign by choice at some point, I presume once her deal is actually formally rejected.

    by choice? I reckon that, on past form, she'll have to be dragged out screaming and kicking
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,201
    Rehman Chisti quits as Vice Chairman.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Didn't someone mention Harry Potter earlier?
    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1063079214507794433
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,834
    Off-topic:

    I've just watched 'London has Fallen'. It is a truly dire film, and sadly not to the level of making it watchable.

    At the end, however, there is an interesting moment: the new British PM is Prime Minister Clarkson.

    And I've realised that's the answer! Jeremy Clarkson for PM, and JC can face JC over the dispatch box ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,201
    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1063083736164720640
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    Immune from challenge but not safe since she still cannot get any legislation through anymore (DUP plus rebels), so she will have to resign by choice at some point, I presume once her deal is actually formally rejected.

    Well quite. What's the phrase "In office, but fucking useless"?
    I think that's been clear for some time
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    rpjs said:

    houndtang said:

    In its pointlessness and potential for lasting bitterness this is reminiscent of the Irish Civil War with May in the role of Collins and JRM as De Valera

    Yes, that's why I commented that if May gets through a VONC she should refrain from any motor tours of the byways of deepest Somerset.
    May is the only one actually putting forward a workable plan and caring what happens to the country. The moral degenerates in the ERG and Labour just don't give a damn what happens to people. I have never known people so callous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    murali_s said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1063083383641772038

    Can drink to that! Cheers!
    Labour and the Tories need each other - they wouldn't know what to do if they couldn't whinge about Thatcher/Socialism/delete as applicable because the other side was eclipsed by the LDs or something.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Herdson, that's rather good.

    FFS Morris, why can't you quote! Which of DH's posts is 'rather good'?
    All of them, obviously.
    I had planned to write both my Sunday threads tonight and tomorrow because I'm busy all day Saturday.

    Do you think this is a good weekend to write threads in advance?
    Yes. This weekend will be phoney war stuff; the action has to happen at Westminster. You might want to write both on Friday though!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Bets on an avalanche of resignations at 5pm for the 6pm news?

    I'm really struggling to call this. I thought Raab would be it, to be honest.

    Such a shame, this deal could have worked.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    DavidL said:

    I think we know of about 3 letters which have been made public. One might presume that the likes of Boris and Davis will have written them as well. It does seem extraordinary that we have not had an announcement that we have 48+. Its not a very high number. The fact that even now it seems to be a struggle suggests to me that May just might be a lot safer than she currently looks (not hard, someone hanging on with one hand to a burning window 10 stories up looks to be in a pretty good position by comparison at the moment).

    What May has never really got, as the election showed par excellence, was that her job is to persuade people and to organise a campaign to build support. In the last 24 hours about the only Tory I have seen consistently supporting her is Rory the Tory. Others have had a go at JRM and other scum bags but are noticeably more reticent about supporting her. Where are her lieutenants? Why are cabinet ministers not in every studio and radio station making the case for this deal? On the rumours about 20 of them supported it. Does she really think it will happen by itself or because she thinks it is the right thing?

    not sure about the Grenfell analogy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    ReggieCide said:

    kle4 said:

    Immune from challenge but not safe since she still cannot get any legislation through anymore (DUP plus rebels), so she will have to resign by choice at some point, I presume once her deal is actually formally rejected.

    by choice? I reckon that, on past form, she'll have to be dragged out screaming and kicking
    I agree at the present moment that is true, but I see that as because she is making them fire her rather than be willing to quit, and until they fire her she will do the job as best she can, which is not very well.

    But if she survives the vote and still cannot complete the job, she can accept an end to it, whereas quitting before her deal is rejected leaves open the, improbable, question that maybe she could have done it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    OGH said:

    My guess is that the PM would probably survive the VONC but it is nothing like as certain as it might have been a week or so ago.

    I think she's more secure than she was a week ago. She now has a deal, and a VONC is a proxy for that. All the other concerns MPs may have with her leadership will be parked.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,883
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1063083736164720640

    He's spot on on point two.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    How can this government govern for the next 4 years now?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Mortimer said:

    Bets on an avalanche of resignations at 5pm for the 6pm news?

    I'm really struggling to call this. I thought Raab would be it, to be honest.

    Such a shame, this deal could have worked.

    May might still have enough MPs left to survive a leadership VONC, but does she have enough left to staff the administration now?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    On topic, the rule is the rule until it's not the rule.

    There are a lot of events to take place over the next six months and were May to win a VoNC 52-48, for example, Con MPs could well react to something between now and March 29 (or a little later), and demand an amendment to permit a new vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    DavidL said:



    What May has never really got, as the election showed par excellence, was that her job is to persuade people and to organise a campaign to build support. In the last 24 hours about the only Tory I have seen consistently supporting her is Rory the Tory. Others have had a go at JRM and other scum bags but are noticeably more reticent about supporting her. Where are her lieutenants? Why are cabinet ministers not in every studio and radio station making the case for this deal? On the rumours about 20 of them supported it. Does she really think it will happen by itself or because she thinks it is the right thing?

    I'm sure she doesn't, but if they won't go out and make the case what can she do?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,201
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Herdson, that's rather good.

    FFS Morris, why can't you quote! Which of DH's posts is 'rather good'?
    All of them, obviously.
    I had planned to write both my Sunday threads tonight and tomorrow because I'm busy all day Saturday.

    Do you think this is a good weekend to write threads in advance?
    Yes. This weekend will be phoney war stuff; the action has to happen at Westminster. You might want to write both on Friday though!
    The outline of one thread is 'I hate Leavers'
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Anorak said:

    Didn't someone mention Harry Potter earlier?
    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1063079214507794433

    which one is real?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800
  • danielmawbsdanielmawbs Posts: 96
    OT - just a reminder, the betfair next cabinet minister to leave is settled on dead heat rules. So if I’ve calculated it correctly the 19 for grayling will be an effective 6.3 if he’s the only other one out but only 4.75 if there are 2 more etc.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1063070673831149568?s=21

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
    Hmmm. Not sure what I've done today. The worst thing I've done, I think was to have three cups of tea and spend too much time dicking about on the net.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the rule is the rule until it's not the rule.

    There are a lot of events to take place over the next six months and were May to win a VoNC 52-48, for example, Con MPs could well react to something between now and March 29 (or a little later), and demand an amendment to permit a new vote.

    Surely 52-48 would be a "clear majority" and the ERG would need to respect "the will of the Conservative Party"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Gallowgate said:

    How can this government govern for the next 4 years now?

    It can't and won't. At best I can see a minority adminsitration trying to limp to 2020 and get us back on the cycle for FTPA that we would have been on without 2017, but I don't see how it makes the spring.

    Deal goes through and you have DUP and furious ERGers and others either quit the whip or just cause a constant mess, the government cannot function.

    Deal does not go through and it's utter chaos, the remainer rebels and others cause a constant mess and government cannot function,

    GE nailed on.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just watched 'London has Fallen'. It is a truly dire film, and sadly not to the level of making it watchable.

    At the end, however, there is an interesting moment: the new British PM is Prime Minister Clarkson.

    And I've realised that's the answer! Jeremy Clarkson for PM, and JC can face JC over the dispatch box ...

    I loved London has fallen. It was so imbecilic as to make it enjoyable. I particularly liked the ambush at St Paul’s. As if half of the armed police force could be replaced with mercenaries and no one would notice!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    No way May is allowing him to do that
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Mortimer said:

    Bets on an avalanche of resignations at 5pm for the 6pm news?

    Or the magic 48 being reached.

    I see Sheryll Murray has just sent her letter in. The great irony is that her tweet announcing it is accompanied by a profile picture showing her smiling with TM:

    https://twitter.com/sheryllmurray/status/1063086369990459393
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,201
    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    Gove's a shit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,073
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:



    What May has never really got, as the election showed par excellence, was that her job is to persuade people and to organise a campaign to build support. In the last 24 hours about the only Tory I have seen consistently supporting her is Rory the Tory. Others have had a go at JRM and other scum bags but are noticeably more reticent about supporting her. Where are her lieutenants? Why are cabinet ministers not in every studio and radio station making the case for this deal? On the rumours about 20 of them supported it. Does she really think it will happen by itself or because she thinks it is the right thing?

    I'm sure she doesn't, but if they won't go out and make the case what can she do?
    She needs an organiser who can develop a consistent message and a line to take. Someone like Osborne. But he didn't know his party, apparently.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1063070673831149568?s=21

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
    Hmmm. Not sure what I've done today. The worst thing I've done, I think was to have three cups of tea and spend too much time dicking about on the net.
    You've really worked yourself up into a lather over this idea that it's all Labour's fault
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I this May has a lot of persoanl support in the country, sensible people realise that she had an impossible job, yet she has done her utmost and they respect her for it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    houndtang said:

    In its pointlessness and potential for lasting bitterness this is reminiscent of the Irish Civil War with May in the role of Collins and JRM as De Valera

    You clearly went to a different school from Karen Bradley.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    This makes no sense! It's been panned as fundamentally flawed, it cannot be a quick fix, so what is there to renegotiate that can be done in time!?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1063070673831149568?s=21

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
    Hmmm. Not sure what I've done today. The worst thing I've done, I think was to have three cups of tea and spend too much time dicking about on the net.
    You've really worked yourself up into a lather over this idea that it's all Labour's fault
    Uh, pretend I quoted Theo, not you
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Gallowgate said:

    How can this government Prime Minister govern for the next 4 years weeks now?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    currystar said:

    I this May has a lot of persoanl support in the country, sensible people realise that she had an impossible job, yet she has done her utmost and they respect her for it.

    Where are you getting that from?

    In any case it's irrelevant, since it is MPs she needs to persuade first.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    not_on_fire said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the rule is the rule until it's not the rule.

    There are a lot of events to take place over the next six months and were May to win a VoNC 52-48, for example, Con MPs could well react to something between now and March 29 (or a little later), and demand an amendment to permit a new vote.

    Surely 52-48 would be a "clear majority" and the ERG would need to respect "the will of the Conservative Party"
    I don’t think this article is accurate at all. I thought the rules could be changed by a meeting of 1922 committee
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nemtynakht said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just watched 'London has Fallen'. It is a truly dire film, and sadly not to the level of making it watchable.

    At the end, however, there is an interesting moment: the new British PM is Prime Minister Clarkson.

    And I've realised that's the answer! Jeremy Clarkson for PM, and JC can face JC over the dispatch box ...

    I loved London has fallen. It was so imbecilic as to make it enjoyable. I particularly liked the ambush at St Paul’s. As if half of the armed police force could be replaced with mercenaries and no one would notice!
    Yep, so bad it's good. See also most Jason Statham films.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,883
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    Gove's a shit.
    Well clearly May can't get the deal through parliament (I think), she might as well send Gove out to be shot down by Barnier.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,032
    Priti Patel is thick as pigshit. That is not a qualification for leadership. We are not America.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    No way May is allowing him to do that
    Interesting thought experiment, though. If Gove gets in and replaces May's deal with his chum Boles's "Norway for Now"...
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    Theo said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1063070673831149568?s=21

    It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.

    The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.

    * Not a sackable offence.
    The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
    Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
    A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
    If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
    Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
    I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
    Once again a complete abdication of any moral responsible and apathy over the impact of your actions. You are a terrible human being.
    Hmmm. Not sure what I've done today. The worst thing I've done, I think was to have three cups of tea and spend too much time dicking about on the net.
    You and all the Labour Party care more about the political game than the actual impact on people's lives. You can barely contain your glee over the UK facing an economic crash so you can get into power.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,201
    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1063088432048758785
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Herdson, that's rather good.

    FFS Morris, why can't you quote! Which of DH's posts is 'rather good'?
    All of them, obviously.
    I had planned to write both my Sunday threads tonight and tomorrow because I'm busy all day Saturday.

    Do you think this is a good weekend to write threads in advance?
    Yes. This weekend will be phoney war stuff; the action has to happen at Westminster. You might want to write both on Friday though!
    The outline of one thread is 'I hate Leavers'
    You could use the Archimedes quote: "Give me a lever and a place to stand and I will move the earth".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Nemtynakht said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just watched 'London has Fallen'. It is a truly dire film, and sadly not to the level of making it watchable.

    At the end, however, there is an interesting moment: the new British PM is Prime Minister Clarkson.

    And I've realised that's the answer! Jeremy Clarkson for PM, and JC can face JC over the dispatch box ...

    I loved London has fallen. It was so imbecilic as to make it enjoyable. I particularly liked the ambush at St Paul’s. As if half of the armed police force could be replaced with mercenaries and no one would notice!
    Well in fairness you could replace half the parliament with gibbering baboons and no one would notice except for a rise in the general level of debate, so anything is possible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    This makes no sense! It's been panned as fundamentally flawed, it cannot be a quick fix, so what is there to renegotiate that can be done in time!?
    And how can May stay as PM as he dismantles her beloved deal in front of her eyes - presumably with her tacit approval and total absence of micro-management?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,963
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    This makes no sense! It's been panned as fundamentally flawed, it cannot be a quick fix, so what is there to renegotiate that can be done in time!?
    There might be time to make the deal worse just to humiliate him.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    El_Capitano said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    No way May is allowing him to do that
    Interesting thought experiment, though. If Gove gets in and replaces May's deal with his chum Boles's "Norway for Now"...
    Yes
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    This makes no sense! It's been panned as fundamentally flawed, it cannot be a quick fix, so what is there to renegotiate that can be done in time!?
    You can't apply logic to Brexit, you silly sausage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1063086788980469760
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,883
    currystar said:

    I this May has a lot of persoanl support in the country, sensible people realise that she had an impossible job, yet she has done her utmost and they respect her for it.

    True, the ratings will PLUMMET for the Tories if one of the merry Breshiteers takes over. Shame she is not directly elected right now :(
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,834
    Nemtynakht said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just watched 'London has Fallen'. It is a truly dire film, and sadly not to the level of making it watchable.

    At the end, however, there is an interesting moment: the new British PM is Prime Minister Clarkson.

    And I've realised that's the answer! Jeremy Clarkson for PM, and JC can face JC over the dispatch box ...

    I loved London has fallen. It was so imbecilic as to make it enjoyable. I particularly liked the ambush at St Paul’s. As if half of the armed police force could be replaced with mercenaries and no one would notice!
    I can see that angle, but for me it jumped the shark, landed, sunk, was swallowed by a flatulent whale.

    I can forgive terrible dialogue, but even many of the action scenes were stupid - especially the ending. It also exhibited that terrible fault of many films: predictability.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Nemtynakht said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063081426957021184

    This is another thing that May has not addressed. If 48 reaches the party has to decide if it will stick with near through a possible election campaign - she has now lost the DUP. I think the sensible answer would be that she hasn’t really convinced since the last election, rather count on by the fingernails. A Tory voting to keep her would risk a proven election dud. Other possible leaders would have the benefit of either bing a clean skin, or successful electorally Like Boris.
    The DUP seem to me to be the ultimate pragmatists. Will they really fancy JC. I think they might even prefer Old Nick
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2018
    DavidL said:

    I think we know of about 3 letters which have been made public. One might presume that the likes of Boris and Davis will have written them as well. It does seem extraordinary that we have not had an announcement that we have 48+. Its not a very high number. The fact that even now it seems to be a struggle suggests to me that May just might be a lot safer than she currently looks (not hard, someone hanging on with one hand to a burning window 10 stories up looks to be in a pretty good position by comparison at the moment).

    Brady has said that if he ever gets to 48 letters he would want to check with each of them that they still meant it. Suppose there were twenty letters submitted before this week. Twenty phone calls at five minutes per phone call would be more than an hour and a half. And it can be strung out a lot longer than that if he doesn't have the relevant phone numbers to hand or people don't answer their phones, etc.

    The due diligence on 48 letters could take a while unless all 48 of them corner him in his office as a phalanx.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Where's Boris?

    Ominously quiet......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    This makes no sense! It's been panned as fundamentally flawed, it cannot be a quick fix, so what is there to renegotiate that can be done in time!?
    And how can May stay as PM as he dismantles her beloved deal in front of her eyes - presumably with her tacit approval and total absence of micro-management?

    Well quite. Everyone in this mess is looking like a buffoon.

    Just get rid of May, see if that works (it won't) and then go for a GE. It won't fix anything but this is preposterous.

    Cheery afternoon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Maybe every year we can have a vote for a new leader of Tory, Labour and Lib Dems. They pretty much do it anyway. Could replace XFactor on Saturday nights.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,196
    Is this perhaps return of The Day Today ?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1063085102031425536
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Has anybody asked Brenda whats she thinks of all of this?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,127
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1063087599907151873
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited November 2018
    El_Capitano said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    No way May is allowing him to do that
    Interesting thought experiment, though. If Gove gets in and replaces May's deal with his chum Boles's "Norway for Now"...
    Norway === EEA === FOM, plus it doesn't solve the Irish border. It'd need to be Norway + CU in which case what's the point of leaving?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Herdson, that's rather good.

    FFS Morris, why can't you quote! Which of DH's posts is 'rather good'?
    All of them, obviously.
    I had planned to write both my Sunday threads tonight and tomorrow because I'm busy all day Saturday.

    Do you think this is a good weekend to write threads in advance?
    Yes. This weekend will be phoney war stuff; the action has to happen at Westminster. You might want to write both on Friday though!
    The outline of one thread is 'I hate Leavers'
    Not strong enough. "We need a bonfire of EU regulations Leavers" is more in the mode of the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2018
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1063086788980469760

    Given Peston's record, that means Graham Brady's postbag is not overflowing.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1063086788980469760

    Given Peston's record, that means Graham Brady's postbag is already overflowing.
    I think you're missing a "not"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1063086788980469760

    Given Peston's record, that means Graham Brady's postbag is already overflowing.
    I think you're missing a "not"
    Fixed...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    "Michael Gove will ONLY become Theresa May's Brexit Secretary if he can renegotiate her deal and the November 25 EU summit is scrapped."

    Guys, we're gonna need a bigger popcorn truck.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,073
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1063086384339148800

    Gove's a shit.
    Or realistic. This deal needs a different bow on it if it is to have any chance of passing now. There is no way that the EU will let the substance of it be changed but something to give the hyperbolas something to hide behind is necessary.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,812
    currystar said:

    I this May has a lot of persoanl support in the country, sensible people realise that she had an impossible job, yet she has done her utmost and they respect her for it.

    So did Margaret Thatcher but it didn't stop her defenestration almost exactly twenty eight years ago.

    Apart from that, weasel words. May wanted the job, she knew (or thought she knew) what it would entail. She went to the country on a simple message of "Trust Me" and got a raspberry for her pains. For all the soft words, so much of this nonsense is directly down to her.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Has anybody asked Brenda whats she thinks of all of this?

    Why bother? She is not allowed to say.
This discussion has been closed.