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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggsy’s TM confidence vote gamble could rebound into a confid
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moggsy’s TM confidence vote gamble could rebound into a confidence vote on himself
Yesterday the old Etonian father of six, Jacob Rees-Mogg, took a massive gamble when he had an impromptu press conference outside the palace of Westminster in which he declared his lack of confidence in the state-school educated Mrs May. He announced that he had sent a letter calling for a confidence vote and it looked as though the other 47 letters and needed were either there or would be arriving quickly.
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https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/parties/conservatives/theresa-may/exclusive-theresa-may-takes-your-calls-on-lbc/
But I'm basing them on the pb-selectorate. A clear majority of PB-leavers are supportive of the deal, and around half of PB-remainers.
And, if that list is complete, interesting omission of Gove.
SquareRoot said:
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When some of your team are playing crap, you call them into the middle just like the Sri Lanka captain just did and give them a damn good bollocking.
The Captain has to be slightly apart from the team.. whilst being in the team..
I said:
I seem to remember that another Geoffrey had some comments on the role of the Captain though: "It’s rather like sending our opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find that before the first ball is bowled, their bats have been broken by the team captain. "
There's been a fair bit of that as well.
Which I find intensly depressing, it's people begging to stay alive.
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1063344379820154880
If Corbyn can stay on when most of his MPs are against him, then May might see this through yet.
There's still the matter of getting whatever through the house, but if she plays hardball, then the TINA might gain traction.
If the Commons votes for the deal, the deal will be done.
If the deal falls it's possible that May might (prior to defenestration, so she'll have to be quick) put down a vote on a second referendum. Big risk for pro-EU types to deliberately vote down the deal in order to try and get another referendum.
However, if such a vote were put to Parliament it sounds like it'd pass with little difficulty.
JRM did the right thing yesterday. If Brady doesn’t get his 48 letters, it will say a lot more about the gutless winders on the Tory back benches than it will about JRM himself.
Match back in the balance again. It's riveting stuff.
Edit, in fairness unlucky there, struck outside the line.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1063342371939721216
I voted Leave because I wanted a trade deal with the EU and nothing else. May should have stuck with David Davis’ approach. If there is a second referendum I shall still vote Leave. I think the behaviour of the Remoaners who have failed to respect the original referendum is abhorrent. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Leavers do not.
Mind you, I do think that, whatever happens, this is going to rumble on for a very long time.
Well, it's a view.
The default to this deal is a hard Brexit. I wish the default was the status-quo (remaining in the EU) but sadly it isn't.
Not only is that not true, but it severely limits her ability to convince others.
The problem with May’s deal is that it is not worth having at all. It has no merits and it doesn’t even give us back control of our borders, money and laws as he falsely claimed yesterday.
Has May gone yet?
Anyone found Gove yet?
How does her deal deliver anything that reflects why voted Leave ? It doesn’t give us control of anything - not our money, not our borders, and not our laws let alone anything else.
The leave campaign was about more money for the NHS
1) Barnier is open to further talks, use the mechanism to extend A50 and continue negotiations
2) Run a referendum with no deal, the deal and no Brexit.
Or
3) Replace the troublesome unloved bespoke backstop agreement with simple re-entry. This solves almost all problems with the deal.
I prefer 2) then 3). But to say there is no alternative is incorrect.
The default without this deal will end up being Remain, the question then is just when not if
We’re not led by sentient opinion polls.
Events dear boy, events.
Watch the next 72 hours ...
Jeremy Corbyn has spent the last 40 years speaking to any group that will pay his travel expenses, so it was no surprise at GE 2017 that he was fairly good at it.
It is noticeable that the new Number 10 team has cottoned on to this, and this increased exposure will stand Theresa May in good stead. Similarly, the Prime Minister's African tour was a crash course in being human interacting with the public.
According to Sam Coates at the Times Gove gave her an ultimatum that he’d only take the job if allowed to renegotiate, at 4.45.
https://youtu.be/LtlGN8wVnis
Maybe williamglenn is right and she's deliberately manoeuvring herself into a position where she is forced to offer a referendum to avoid no-deal.
https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/1063220990845452288
Shame This Week isn't on rather earlier, to be honest.
If the ERG can’t muster 48 votes between them though, they will be a laughing stock andrightly so.
No Deal now means riots on the streets with less than a third support for it that make the poll tax riots look like a picnic and the collapse of the £, the stock exchange and the economy. I repeat No Deal means it is a question of when not if we stay in the EU before next March or we rejoin the EEA with full single market and customs union membership after
Brexiteers better realise this Deal is the best Brexit they will get
Another anecdote is from my poker game last night - mostly working-class Leavers who I think are generally Tory (it's Surrey), quite vocal about it (usually we don't talk politics). They think it's all a shambles, the deal is rubbish and May should resign and make way for some unspecified leader to sort it out. It doesn't make them pro-Labour, though - they just feel fed up.
I still think the view expressed on here - that the deal's not too bad and most people just want it to be got on with - has some merit.
Although I was surprised by the vehemence and unanimity against it in the Commons yesterday, it might not take too many constituency chairmen getting grief from their business chums on the golf course this week to soften it.
At the same time, the ultras on both sides might realise it's a complete coin toss if this fails whether they get No Deal or Remain, and decide this is the least worst option.
Apart from the vote in parliament, yesterday was the biggest chance to disrupt this. Had Mordaunt and Gove jumped with Raab and McVey, AND 48 letters gone in, it may have proved fatal. But every day she and the deal go on, they're stronger than they were the day before.
Just add's to the feeling that Theresa May's had it!
- stop us paying for the CAP.
- stop freedom of movement.
I think in all circumstances we have to follow regulations in the single market if we want to sell into the single market, so I don't see any scenario - except some sort of self-defeating trade war - where we do not have to follow EU law to some extent.
Your side have won. My side lost. Rejoice?
I reluctantly support the deal, but telling people that No deal wont be the outcome of voting it down is irresponsible when that is what the laws point to.
Portillo's prediction is that it will be the Cabinet that does May in when they realize the deal won't get through Parliament and as Theresa won't abandon it they'll have to abandon her (to save the government and their jobs)
Now if the role isn't filled by Tuesday next week that's a different matter.
It doesn’t affect in the slightest how we choose to regulate our domestic economy and there is no sensible reason whatsoever for us to bind our domestic economy, which is 80% of our GDP, by the rules of the Single Market.