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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot pa

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

Since the current Tory leadership rules were first used in 2001 the highest number of candidates to be on the first ballot paper is five, in 2001 and 2016, so I can see why people may wish to back the 8/15 on there being fewer 7 candidates, however I think the value is betting on there being 7 or more candidates next time in this market by William Hill.

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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,128
    I'd smash the unders on that market.

    7 seems huge, factions will select preferred candidates
  • One problem with that market is that if there are not 48 letter-writers, you could be tying up your stake money for years, in return for not especially attractive odds. I'd be under too, since the contingency is the number on the ballot paper, not the greater number who start to campaign but then pull out when they find less support than they'd hoped (see Boris last time).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    Third, like the coming referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    If they really do intend to draw lots, it is an admission that their candidate is a factional one in the style of left-wing Labour of old, not intended to win but simply to gather enough support to 'sell' for political concessions in later rounds,
  • I’m not expecting a coronation before the 29th of March 2019, given what is at stake.

    Or afterwards either. What is there to unite the ERG "morons" (Telegraph) or "lemmings" (Daily Mail) with the rest of the party on planet Earth?

    I know (as with Labour) the party is a 'broad church" but this lot are sitting in the graveyard.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,493
    Fpt:
    shiney2 said:

    That's one.

    39 left.

    Your target is zero.

    Is it?

    Surely the question is whether - on the balance of probabilities - what the best option out of Leave Without A Deal, Remain and this Deal is. (Or perhaps, a ranking.)

    I don't like the idea that Eurocrats pensions appear to be tax free. However, I also appreciate that British civil servants who were seconded to Brussels will have considered the tax free nature of the pensions as part of their package. (And I'm sure the same is true for those who take secondments to NATO or the UN.) Changing the terms after they've been agreed is not something I'm particularly keen on. But you know what: if it was a perfect deal, and Eurocrats kept their pensions (or lost them), then would I regard it as a big deal? Nope. It's minutiae. So, the target is not zero objections. The target is better than the alternatives.

    If we leave the EU without a deal on March 29th, then our exports to South Korea, to Switzerland, to Canada, and to numerous other place not in the EU will suddenly be subject to subject to tariffs. Under the terms of the South Korea - EU FTA, UK financial services firms are currently able to hold banking licenses in South Korea. That will cease on 29 March without a deal.

    This is not just about the UK and the EU's trading relationship. It is about the UK recreating the mesh of arrangements that the EU has created over 40 years. For the US alone, it is about replacing Open Skies, the Atlantic Council and the seven bilateral ageements covering trade and mutual standards recognition.

    Currently, the UK is the location for European holding companies for thousands of multinationals. If we leave the EU's rules that exempt double taxation and withholding taxes, then it will dramatically complicate these companies operations. As a former CFO of a reasonably large multinational company, this is a very big deal. There's no way I would want to have my European holding entity in the UK because suddenly transfers between entities are subject to withholding taxes.

    Given that the UK-EU relationship will be rewritten a dozen times in the next century - if the EU lasts that long - what in that agreement is sufficiently serious that you would choose No Deal over it?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520
    I win big if its Rat Eyes Hunt and am fucked if its Boris.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I win big if its Rat Eyes Hunt and am fucked if its Boris.

    We're all f*cked if its Boris.....

    Wouldn't mind Hunt - one of the grown ups.....
  • I got on Hunt at 70 , Gove at 25 then Javid at 8 a while ago then cashed out a few months ago and went All Green as I think the Tories will want a revolutionary reboot.
  • The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,330
    edited November 2018

    The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.

    The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583
    edited November 2018
    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    The Sunday Times reports that a team of army planners have started drawing up emergency measures for deploying troops in the event of any chaos caused by a no-deal Brexit.
    Citing a 'well placed army source', the paper says around 20 officers based in Hampshire are drawing up plans on how to keep order, ease traffic and deliver medicines.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    philiph said:

    The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.

    The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
    And people may drop out more quickly than one at a time
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    I pointed out yesterday that's 'steerpike' hadn't a clue what 'he' was talking about. But somehow that didn't even penetrate on to PBers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    IanB2 said:

    If they really do intend to draw lots, it is an admission that their candidate is a factional one in the style of left-wing Labour of old, not intended to win but simply to gather enough support to 'sell' for political concessions in later rounds,

    What do you mean, 'of old?' That's how they ended up with the Jezaster.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520
    IanB2 said:


    Citing a 'well placed army source', the paper says around 20 officers based in Hampshire are drawing up plans on how to keep order, ease traffic and deliver medicines.

    This sounds more like one of those wheezes that the British Army occasionally has to come up with to keep their large number of OF-3s and OF-4s who can't be allowed anywhere near a fighting force otherwise occupied. See also: putting them on aircraft carriers to look after the maps (land, for the invading of) and giving them to RAF squadrons to look after the labrador.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    IanB2 said:

    philiph said:

    The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.

    The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
    And people may drop out more quickly than one at a time
    If you weren't dealing with the political ego here, then if you are going to replace May because she has ballsed up Brexit, it makes sense to replace her with somebody who knows what the hell has gone wrong - and what might just be possible to fix it. Which puts Davis and Raab way out in front.

    Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron. If he could convince the ambitious that he does not want to lead them beyond 2020, they will have another stab (carefully chosen) at the leader once Brexit has been delivered. Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious. But if Raab gets Brexit sorted, and he could be there ten years or more.

    And how many of these other runners and riders actually WANT to have to get us through a possible No Deal Brexit? PM of the Sunlit-Uplands Beyond is much more attractive than PM of a Bloody Great Headache.

    That's why (for months) I have been saying Davis gets it in a Coronation of Chaos, once May's deal was dead. Well, May's deal is dead, as is her political tenure. We have the Chaos of a group of Cabinet Ministers having prised renegotiation of that deal from her as the price of not defenestrating the PM this past last week. But no-one beyond Sir Alan Duncan has gone in front of the cameras expressing a desire for her to continue in post.

    However, we are dealing with the political ego. And the Conservative Party. I may be completely wrong.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,651
    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    I pointed out yesterday that's 'steerpike' hadn't a clue what 'he' was talking about. But somehow that didn't even penetrate on to PBers.
    I suspect your quote marks are well placed. Steerpike is edited by Katy Balls but I don’t for a moment think she wrote that. I suspect an ERGer seeking the respectability of anonymity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron.

    In the dog days of his 2005 campaign, Davis desperately tried to appeal to the left wing of the Tories by saying he was the pro-European candidate, on the basis that he wasn't proposing to pull the Tories out of the EPP grouping.

    That is now deliciously ironic on so many levels.

    But I don't see a pathway to the final two for him. Age, inexperience, flakiness, laziness and the awesome shambles he has left behind in every major role he's held tell against him.

    Moreover, the last time the Tories had a leader appointed while in government who hadn't previously held a major office of state was as long ago as 1828. I don't think that will be changing at such a crucial moment.

    Javid is the more likely Eurosceptic candidate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    I pointed out yesterday that's 'steerpike' hadn't a clue what 'he' was talking about. But somehow that didn't even penetrate on to PBers.
    I suspect your quote marks are well placed. Steerpike is edited by Katy Balls but I don’t for a moment think she wrote that. I suspect an ERGer seeking the respectability of anonymity.
    Well, whoever wrote it it was certainly all Balls.
  • ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    I pointed out yesterday that's 'steerpike' hadn't a clue what 'he' was talking about. But somehow that didn't even penetrate on to PBers.
    In fairness to the Spectator they did publish Downing St's rebuttal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    I pointed out yesterday that's 'steerpike' hadn't a clue what 'he' was talking about. But somehow that didn't even penetrate on to PBers.
    In fairness to the Spectator they did publish Downing St's rebuttal.
    They had no business to publish an inflammatory article like that without having it checked by somebody vaguely sane and competent in the first place. That's the Irving defence: 'Yes, I told a pack of lies based on forged documents, but look, I wrote a letter to The Times to put it right!'

    They've done serious damage and look like idiots. If I could tell within seconds that the author was lying, so should they have been able to. If I were the board, I'd be getting ready for some sackings.

    Edit - and despite having been rebutted, the original article is still on their website.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they really do intend to draw lots, it is an admission that their candidate is a factional one in the style of left-wing Labour of old, not intended to win but simply to gather enough support to 'sell' for political concessions in later rounds,

    What do you mean, 'of old?' That's how they ended up with the Jezaster.
    Exactly. That's why that approach to putting up a candidate is now of the past, in Labour at least. Learning from the mistakes of others doesn't appear to be a conservative core competence.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Pineapple Pizza for TSE?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they really do intend to draw lots, it is an admission that their candidate is a factional one in the style of left-wing Labour of old, not intended to win but simply to gather enough support to 'sell' for political concessions in later rounds,

    What do you mean, 'of old?' That's how they ended up with the Jezaster.
    Exactly. That's why that approach to putting up a candidate is now of the past, in Labour at least. Learning from the mistakes of others doesn't appear to be a conservative core competence.
    The Labour left will undoubtedly do that again when Corbyn is hit by a runaway brontosaurus, not least becuase there is no obvious standout replacement.

    Whether that candidate will then be elected is another question, and I think you are conflating the two issues.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,493
    OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

    I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

    I would like to apologise.

    In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

    * Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Pineapple Pizza for TSE?

    The offer to commute it to multiple watchings of Solo is on the table.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    I've got to admit that IF we're actually going to Leave....... and I really, really don't want us to..... I don't think the May's (and Raab's) deal is too bad. It does move us into a transitiopn phase where second and wiser thoughts can prevail. Leaving on 29th March without some arrangement for transition wold have meant a dreadful mess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    Which former Brexit secretary?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    The Brexit ERG group are the ones who are toxic. and Rabb was the fecking Brexit Sec. Is he saying he was a weak person unable to manage his job. He was the one negotiating post DD who proved to be a broken straw and threw his toys out of the pram.
    When you here the likes of Francis talking in that pathetic smug manner, along with Mr SMUG himself Mogg, it makes one feel sick to the pit of one's stomach.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    If they really do intend to draw lots, it is an admission that their candidate is a factional one in the style of left-wing Labour of old, not intended to win but simply to gather enough support to 'sell' for political concessions in later rounds,

    What do you mean, 'of old?' That's how they ended up with the Jezaster.
    Exactly. That's why that approach to putting up a candidate is now of the past, in Labour at least. Learning from the mistakes of others doesn't appear to be a conservative core competence.
    The Labour left will undoubtedly do that again when Corbyn is hit by a runaway brontosaurus, not least becuase there is no obvious standout replacement.

    Whether that candidate will then be elected is another question, and I think you are conflating the two issues.
    Mine was simply a comment on putting up a token candidate to represent a point of view, rather than as a serious candidate for the job. By drawing lots to see who will represent them, the ERG is clearly going down such a path.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    Which former Brexit secretary?
    Raab/BBC headline
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    Whichever civil servant did that rebuttal deserves credit; s/he exposes the Spectator for peddling fake news clearly intended to influence the political debate without much concern for fact or truth. A massive black mark for Spectator journalism.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520
    edited November 2018

    Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious.

    If David Davis becomes the next PM of Great Brexitstan and the Six Counties. I will post a video on here of me having multiple ribs surgically removed. The second video I post will be of me fellating myself. That's how sure I am it won't be DD.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    edited November 2018
    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    (Edit/ a shocking split infinitive, as well)

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,922
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    "Desperate sharks"

    Is that better or worse than yesterday's DM "Lemmings"? - which they have continued today...."lemming letter club" (should have gone for "Lemming letter loons"...)

    I think its fair to say the right wing press is far from united behind the ERG....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.

    Well, at least that saves TSE some effort. After all, he already hated Zac.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    Dura_Ace said:

    Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious.

    If David Davis becomes the next PM of Great Brexitstan and the Six Counties. I will post a video on here of me having multiple ribs surgically removed. The second video I post will be of me fellating myself. That's how sure I am it won't be DD.
    A delightful mental image over my breakfast, thank you.
  • The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.


    The one that only just worked out we're an island?

    That one?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583
    So apparently Davis/Raab “know what’s gone wrong and how to fix it”. Like all political minority interests holding the balance of power they presumably labour under the delusion that because their votes are necessary to secure majority support, their votes are also sufficient to secure majority support. When the reality of course is that any path pursued (and led) by a minority interest is likely to be the one that has least support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,493
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.

    Well, at least that saves TSE some effort. After all, he already hated Zac.
    Zac is a monumental waste of space.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.

    I thought Goldsmith was pro-EU? I gather Priti Patel hasn't written in yet.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    I pointed out yesterday that's 'steerpike' hadn't a clue what 'he' was talking about. But somehow that didn't even penetrate on to PBers.
    In fairness to the Spectator they did publish Downing St's rebuttal.
    Edit - and despite having been rebutted, the original article is still on their website.
    And the rebuttal is the second most read article.

    Unlike The Observer printing the latest Carole retraction on page 175.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    Dura_Ace said:

    Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious.

    If David Davis becomes the next PM of Great Brexitstan and the Six Counties. I will post a video on here of me having multiple ribs surgically removed. The second video I post will be of me fellating myself. That's how sure I am it won't be DD.
    Then lets all hope not.....
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,651
    The online Spectator is still leading with the Steerpike piece, burying the Downing Street rebuttal downpage. Is Andrew Neill still Spectator chairman?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583

    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.

    I thought Goldsmith was pro-EU? I gather Priti Patel hasn't written in yet.
    He’s hard eurosceptic, and pretty much shares the views of his dad. His constituency is one of the most pro-EU in the country.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583
    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    (Edit/ a shocking split infinitive, as well)

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.


    The Mail on Sunday (editor at time of Brexit, the current DM editor) supported remain.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.

    I thought Goldsmith was pro-EU? I gather Priti Patel hasn't written in yet.
    He’s hard eurosceptic, and pretty much shares the views of his dad. His constituency is one of the most pro-EU in the country.
    Obliged. So much for recognising the views of his constituents!

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,061
    There is a simple and obvious solution:

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,131

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    No, it is utterly toxic to the Tories.
    But then again, you did label the blustering buffon Davis as ‘attractive’.

  • Good morning, everyone.

    Not fond of the odds + timescale, to be honest.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,454


    If you weren't dealing with the political ego here, then if you are going to replace May because she has ballsed up Brexit, it makes sense to replace her with somebody who knows what the hell has gone wrong - and what might just be possible to fix it. Which puts Davis and Raab way out in front.

    ROFLMAO

    Oh, wait, you're serious...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,101
    alex. said:

    Yesterday the the height of journalistic irresponsibility the Spectator published a highly inaccurate document about the “horrors” of May’s deal without bothering to check their facts first. This has obviously gone half way around the world before the truth could put its boots on, and been seized upon by ERG nutters desperate for any and all reasons to reject May’s deal. It may even have directly influenced some to put in letters to the 1922.

    Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...

    The right wing press publishing lies about Europe? I am shocked that their is drinking in this establishment!
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    As May seems certain to win, although heaven only knows why as she poisons everything she touches, the real question is how many don’t support her and vote for other candidates and whether it will be enough to convince her either to resign or to change tack on Brexit. I doubt either will be the case because the woman is so obtuse so the real leadership contest will be in 12 months time.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,651

    The online Spectator is still leading with the Steerpike piece, burying the Downing Street rebuttal downpage. Is Andrew Neill still Spectator chairman?

    Answering my own question, yes, he is. And he also only has one L. (I always get that wrong. Shades of A.S. Neill, maybe.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,101

    I'd smash the unders on that market.

    7 seems huge, factions will select preferred candidates

    Agreed, I can't really imagine more than 4 but bwe are in cluster fuck city so maybe it will be 12.
  • alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    One thing for sure, under new management DM headlines are getting longer:

    Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48

    (Edit/ a shocking split infinitive, as well)

    In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.


    The Mail on Sunday (editor at time of Brexit, the current DM editor) supported remain.
    Indeed and Mail readers are not happy about the change in editorial position at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    Nigelb said:

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    No, it is utterly toxic to the Tories.
    But then again, you did label the blustering buffon Davis as ‘attractive’.

    What I said was, IF YOU WERE A TORY MP "Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious."

    And what has the PSG goalkeeper "buffon" got to do with anything ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    Toxic to the Tories I think you mean, a sane brexiy probably could have got over the line if the Conservatives had rowed in behind May. Now we will either have no deal or no Brexit. All paths lead to Corbyn from here.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583

    As May seems certain to win, although heaven only knows why as she poisons everything she touches, the real question is how many don’t support her and vote for other candidates and whether it will be enough to convince her either to resign or to change tack on Brexit. I doubt either will be the case because the woman is so obtuse so the real leadership contest will be in 12 months time.

    How many times do the Tory leadership rules have to be explained before people can retain them within their heads?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    As May seems certain to win

    That's a keeper....

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    edited November 2018

    Nigelb said:

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    No, it is utterly toxic to the Tories.
    But then again, you did label the blustering buffon Davis as ‘attractive’.

    What I said was, IF YOU WERE A TORY MP "Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious."

    And what has the PSG goalkeeper "buffon" got to do with anything ?
    Has he failed to save a goal while protesting it wasn't his fault, a bit like the ERG?
  • I got on Hunt at 70 , Gove at 25 then Javid at 8 a while ago then cashed out a few months ago and went All Green as I think the Tories will want a revolutionary reboot.

    Stephen Barclay for leader
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    As May seems certain to win

    That's a keeper....
    No, Buffon is the keeper.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    Nigelb said:

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    No, it is utterly toxic to the Tories.
    But then again, you did label the blustering buffon Davis as ‘attractive’.

    My sense is that the tide is going out on the ERG in a big way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    I got on Hunt at 70 , Gove at 25 then Javid at 8 a while ago then cashed out a few months ago and went All Green as I think the Tories will want a revolutionary reboot.

    Stephen Barclay for leader
    You're a card, Mr Pioneers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    ydoethur said:

    As May seems certain to win

    That's a keeper....
    No, Buffon is the keeper.
    Somebody's had their Weetabix....
  • Dura_Ace said:

    I win big if its Rat Eyes Hunt and am fucked if its Boris.

    We're all f*cked if its Boris.....

    Wouldn't mind Hunt - one of the grown ups.....

    Whatever Hunt is, he is certainly not a grown up. Worse Health Secretary than Lansley which is pretty difficult to achieve, and a disaster at Culture - or have you forgotten the Sky debacle. The fact that he is an MP at all brings British politics into disrepute.
  • Surely there must be 48 letters in by now. Otherwise we could safely conclude that the media has given far too much time to a group of MPs that is not just comprised of extremist ninnies but is also merely a pimple on the face of Parliament.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583

    I got on Hunt at 70 , Gove at 25 then Javid at 8 a while ago then cashed out a few months ago and went All Green as I think the Tories will want a revolutionary reboot.

    Damian or Michael (aka Grant Schnapps)?


  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595

    Dura_Ace said:

    I win big if its Rat Eyes Hunt and am fucked if its Boris.

    We're all f*cked if its Boris.....

    Wouldn't mind Hunt - one of the grown ups.....

    Whatever Hunt is, he is certainly not a grown up. Worse Health Secretary than Lansley which is pretty difficult to achieve, and a disaster at Culture - or have you forgotten the Sky debacle. The fact that he is an MP at all brings British politics into disrepute.
    Is that you tim...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,548

    IanB2 said:

    philiph said:

    The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.

    The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
    And people may drop out more quickly than one at a time
    If you weren't dealing with the political ego here, then if you are going to replace May because she has ballsed up Brexit, it makes sense to replace her with somebody who knows what the hell has gone wrong - and what might just be possible to fix it. Which puts Davis and Raab way out in front.

    Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron. If he could convince the ambitious that he does not want to lead them beyond 2020, they will have another stab (carefully chosen) at the leader once Brexit has been delivered. Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious. But if Raab gets Brexit sorted, and he could be there ten years or more.

    And how many of these other runners and riders actually WANT to have to get us through a possible No Deal Brexit? PM of the Sunlit-Uplands Beyond is much more attractive than PM of a Bloody Great Headache.

    That's why (for months) I have been saying Davis gets it in a Coronation of Chaos, once May's deal was dead. Well, May's deal is dead, as is her political tenure. We have the Chaos of a group of Cabinet Ministers having prised renegotiation of that deal from her as the price of not defenestrating the PM this past last week. But no-one beyond Sir Alan Duncan has gone in front of the cameras expressing a desire for her to continue in post.

    However, we are dealing with the political ego. And the Conservative Party. I may be completely wrong.
    Freudian slip...

    I think you meant “stab at the leadership” not “stab at the leader”...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583
    May should withdraw the whip from every self declared ERG member, and immediately call a General election!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron.

    In the dog days of his 2005 campaign, Davis desperately tried to appeal to the left wing of the Tories by saying he was the pro-European candidate, on the basis that he wasn't proposing to pull the Tories out of the EPP grouping.

    That is now deliciously ironic on so many levels.

    But I don't see a pathway to the final two for him. Age, inexperience, flakiness, laziness and the awesome shambles he has left behind in every major role he's held tell against him.

    Moreover, the last time the Tories had a leader appointed while in government who hadn't previously held a major office of state was as long ago as 1828. I don't think that will be changing at such a crucial moment.

    Javid is the more likely Eurosceptic candidate.
    When I had dinner with some of the StandUp4Brexit folks a couple of weeks ago I was surprised how hostile they were to Javid.

    They wanted Boris (I know) or Raab as a fallback

    They were impressed I suggested Hunt on the grounds that one a deal is done ideological purity on Brexit should be irrelevant
  • Bannon-Banks emails show Brexit campaigners sought US funding
    "Under UK electoral law, campaigns cannot accept donations from individuals and firms overseas."
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/17/uk/brexit-banks-bannon-gbr-intl/index.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    philiph said:

    The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.

    The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
    And people may drop out more quickly than one at a time
    If you weren't dealing with the political ego here, then if you are going to replace May because she has ballsed up Brexit, it makes sense to replace her with somebody who knows what the hell has gone wrong - and what might just be possible to fix it. Which puts Davis and Raab way out in front.

    Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron. If he could convince the ambitious that he does not want to lead them beyond 2020, they will have another stab (carefully chosen) at the leader once Brexit has been delivered. Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious. But if Raab gets Brexit sorted, and he could be there ten years or more.

    And how many of these other runners and riders actually WANT to have to get us through a possible No Deal Brexit? PM of the Sunlit-Uplands Beyond is much more attractive than PM of a Bloody Great Headache.

    That's why (for months) I have been saying Davis gets it in a Coronation of Chaos, once May's deal was dead. Well, May's deal is dead, as is her political tenure. We have the Chaos of a group of Cabinet Ministers having prised renegotiation of that deal from her as the price of not defenestrating the PM this past last week. But no-one beyond Sir Alan Duncan has gone in front of the cameras expressing a desire for her to continue in post.

    However, we are dealing with the political ego. And the Conservative Party. I may be completely wrong.
    Freudian slip...

    I think you meant “stab at the leadership” not “stab at the leader”...
    This is the Tory Party. I know what I meant!
  • alex. said:

    May should withdraw the whip from every self declared ERG member, and immediately call a General election!

    Yay, my MP would be affected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    Charles said:

    They wanted Boris (I know) or Raab as a fallback

    Was this conversation at rather a late stage of dinner? As in, while the third bottle of Cockburn was circulating?
  • alex. said:

    May should withdraw the whip from every self declared ERG member, and immediately call a General election!

    She won't but there is a point here. In Mays cabinet sit a cabal of ministers openly acting against her own policy. She is so weak that they have decided collective cabinet responsibility no longer applies so they don't need to resign to act against it, they can stay and trash it from the inside.

    How then is she supposed to appeal to the scores of Tory MPs already openly against the policy who will vote against it bringing her down? At the same time, a vote against this deal is patently a vote of no confidence in the PM - what "logic" sits with the MPs who trashed the deal in the Commons but purportedly will vote confidence in her or at least not send a letter to Brady?

    Remember, to win a General Election Labour need no additional votes. They simply need Tory voters to stay home or go elsewhere. We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches. For that reason alone it's in the party's best interest for her to go quickly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    alex. said:

    I got on Hunt at 70 , Gove at 25 then Javid at 8 a while ago then cashed out a few months ago and went All Green as I think the Tories will want a revolutionary reboot.

    Damian or Michael (aka Grant Schnapps)?


    Or maybe Al Green - singing that song for the Tories in these dark times, Let's Stay Together...
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,666

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    It really isn't - how does Raab or any other of your friends stand up against Mrs May in the polling?
  • Surely there must be 48 letters in by now. Otherwise we could safely conclude that the media has given far too much time to a group of MPs that is not just comprised of extremist ninnies but is also merely a pimple on the face of Parliament.

    I think they may be sitting on the figure, as they (no 10, whips and CCHQ) can time the announcement to minimise damage - Monday more probable having hit pitch ready
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    edited November 2018

    Surely there must be 48 letters in by now. Otherwise we could safely conclude that the media has given far too much time to a group of MPs that is not just comprised of extremist ninnies but is also merely a pimple on the face of Parliament.

    I think they may be sitting on the figure, as they (no 10, whips and CCHQ) can time the announcement to minimise damage - Monday more probable having hit pitch ready
    The Chairman (Graham Brady) of the 1922 Committee is away for the weekend. I heard so on R4 on Friday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    felix said:

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    It really isn't - how does Raab or any other of your friends stand up against Mrs May in the polling?
    But we haven't had any polling since May's credibility has self-destructed by tying herself to a deal everybody else thinks smells of poo....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches.

    Hurt Labour less than expected last time, although they still lost of course.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,666

    felix said:

    The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

    It really isn't - how does Raab or any other of your friends stand up against Mrs May in the polling?
    But we haven't had any polling since May's credibility has self-destructed by tying herself to a deal everybody else thinks smells of poo....
    MOS today:

    "There was some backing for Mrs May in the ComRes poll, with almost half of those polled saying she should remain as Prime Minister at least until Britain leaves the European Union, including three quarters of Conservative voters.

    There was bad news for some of her possible challengers, with just eight per cent of voters wanting Mr Gove to take over if Mrs May steps down.

    Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt fared little better on 10 per cent, with high profile Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg on 17 per cent.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583
    ydoethur said:

    We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches.

    Hurt Labour less than expected last time, although they still lost of course.
    Labour wasn’t divided. They were completely united with just a handful of recalcitrant rebels in the Shadow Cabinet!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches.

    Hurt Labour less than expected last time, although they still lost of course.
    Labour wasn’t divided. They were completely united with just a handful of recalcitrant rebels in the Shadow Cabinet!

    You're quite right, I take it back.
  • Surely there must be 48 letters in by now. Otherwise we could safely conclude that the media has given far too much time to a group of MPs that is not just comprised of extremist ninnies but is also merely a pimple on the face of Parliament.

    I think they may be sitting on the figure, as they (no 10, whips and CCHQ) can time the announcement to minimise damage - Monday more probable having hit pitch ready
    The Chairman (Graham Brady) of the 1922 Committee is away for the weekend. I heard so on R4 on Friday.
    very convenient......that plays to the CCHQ/No10's hand.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,061

    alex. said:

    May should withdraw the whip from every self declared ERG member, and immediately call a General election!

    She won't but there is a point here. In Mays cabinet sit a cabal of ministers openly acting against her own policy. She is so weak that they have decided collective cabinet responsibility no longer applies so they don't need to resign to act against it, they can stay and trash it from the inside.

    How then is she supposed to appeal to the scores of Tory MPs already openly against the policy who will vote against it bringing her down? At the same time, a vote against this deal is patently a vote of no confidence in the PM - what "logic" sits with the MPs who trashed the deal in the Commons but purportedly will vote confidence in her or at least not send a letter to Brady?

    Remember, to win a General Election Labour need no additional votes. They simply need Tory voters to stay home or go elsewhere. We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches. For that reason alone it's in the party's best interest for her to go quickly.
    It would be absurd for Tory MPs to vote for May in a VONC, then vote down her deal. Absurd, but likely!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    They wanted Boris (I know) or Raab as a fallback

    Was this conversation at rather a late stage of dinner? As in, while the third bottle of Cockburn was circulating?
    Frighteningly no.

    (To be clear, from my original post, they WEREN’T impressed by Hunt)
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Surely there must be 48 letters in by now. Otherwise we could safely conclude that the media has given far too much time to a group of MPs that is not just comprised of extremist ninnies but is also merely a pimple on the face of Parliament.

    I think they may be sitting on the figure, as they (no 10, whips and CCHQ) can time the announcement to minimise damage - Monday more probable having hit pitch ready
    Good point, but Monday is too soon, Tuesday and Wednesday before PMQ's not a chance, too big of an open goal to hand Corbyn. Thursday looks likely then. The longer it delays, the stronger TMay looks.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    Were a GE to be held before March, I wonder if there's any mileage in a Coupon election, as in 1919?
    Or a number of Rejoin candidates vs known Brexiteers?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,453
    I get the a press monitoring summary (sadly they don't believe in paragraphs), and this para is interesting in several ways:

    ‘People’s vote more likely than election says McDonnell as Labour stance shifts’ (Sun Ti p2) - McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election amid claims that he is warming to the idea of a second vote, Shipman/Wheeler rpt. The Shadow Chancellor conceded ystr that a general election “could prove difficult” because of the Fixed-term Parlts Act, which allows for an early election only if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour. Polling that shows growing support for a second referendum is said to have influenced the Shadow Chancellor. McDonnell has previously said remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot in any referendum under Labour. Sources claim he is now more open to the idea. Last week’s political turmoil sent shock waves through Labour. “It made everyone realise just how broken parlt is and what could happen if, and when, MPs vote down May’s deal,” another insider said. Tmrw Starmer will urge Labour MPs to hold their nerve and vote down the deal. The DUP is seeking chances to work with Labour to defeat the Govt on the finance bill.

    McDonnell is, as I've said, pragmatic first and left-wing second. I think a second referendum policy is now on the cards. Also, I can see the DUP doing a deal with Labour. The argument that it's inconceivable runs into the fact that they actually formed a government with Sinn Fein. There comes a point where government is so chaotic that people seek out the alternative and make arrangements accordingly.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520
    Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,131
    ydoethur said:

    We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches.

    Hurt Labour less than expected last time, although they still lost of course.
    And there is perhaps a difference between being divided in opposition and government - particularly when trying to navigate a deadlines national calamity (or glorious opportunity, to nod to the minority view)

This discussion has been closed.