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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theres

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

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  • England aren’t going to score here are they....
  • England aren’t going to score here are they....

    We really need Roger or DavidL to say that.
  • So would the ERG prefered me to have call them sub Mark Reckless traitors or do they prefer me comparing them to an impotent porn star.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    I feel like May is daring them to do it at this point - win or lose it would be better for the country as it removes at least one immediate uncertainty, even though it doesn't make her deal more passable or another deal any easier or harder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,998
    Even if May is challenged I expect she would get a similar result to that Major got against Redwood in 1995 ie 218 MPs (66%) behind the PM, 89 MPs (27%) voting to topple the PM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    I'm horribly upside down in this market, if May is going to be ousted can it be on the 3rd Jan 2019 !
  • England aren’t going to score here are they....

    We really need Roger or DavidL to say that.
    This is like how South Africa were against England in the rugby a couple of weeks ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?
  • HYUFD said:

    Even if May is challenged I expect she would get a similar result to that Major got against Redwood in 1995 ie 218 MPs (66%) behind the PM, 89 MPs (27%) voting to topple the PM

    Are your maths correct = 307
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,311
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?

    Fluffers have become extinct since viagra was available.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    Mr Eagles, a somewhat harsh analogy.

    Except insofar as the ERG are not only completely impotent but all look like massive dicks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    So would the ERG prefered me to have call them sub Mark Reckless traitors or do they prefer me comparing them to an impotent porn star.

    When you say 'sub Mark Reckless' do you mean 'beneath the TPD' or 'they haven't quite made the level of the TPD?'
  • Manchester United love wasting money don't they.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    England aren’t going to score here are they....

    We really need Roger or DavidL to say that.
    Ok, England aren't going to score here are they?

    (I do my best to help)
  • ydoethur said:

    So would the ERG prefered me to have call them sub Mark Reckless traitors or do they prefer me comparing them to an impotent porn star.

    When you say 'sub Mark Reckless' do you mean 'beneath the TPD' or 'they haven't quite made the level of the TPD?'
    Beneath the TPD.

    I was tempted to say the ERG are like Mark Reckless without the defecting to UKIP.
  • DavidL said:

    England aren’t going to score here are they....

    We really need Roger or DavidL to say that.
    Ok, England aren't going to score here are they?

    (I do my best to help)
    Don’t think even that is going to help. Sterling, Kane and rashford don’t look like they would score in a knocking shop this afternoon.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    Difficult to see how May can carry on if she loses the vote on her Brexit bill regardless of whether or not there is a no confidence vote. She’ll have no credibility having totally abandoned domestic policy to deliver a flagship deal even a majority of MPs, who are predominantly Remainers, reject. As we saw in the last election, she is an electoral liability when it comes to campaigning and policy formulation.

    On the other hand, if the ERG can’t even muster 48 letters and there are Tory MPs lying about having sent in letters, she might not lose her Brexit bill, even if it is nothing more than a surrender document.

    Such a shame Brady doesnt publish the list of whose letters he has so we can all see who the liars are.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    Graham Brady makes some sensible comments, I can see why he was knighted by Mrs May *cough*conspiracy*cough*
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Is Sir Graham even going to vote for May's deal - he doesn't seem entirely happy with it either? If he thinks the deal is 'highly unlikely' to pass and is willing to say so publicly isn't that a bit of a problem?

    'But as a Brexiter, he suggested the deal as currently drafted looks highly unlikely to secure a majority in the House of Commons, and he hopes the final political declaration about Britain’s future trading relationship - to be hammered out over the next few days, “gives considerably stronger grounds for optimism about the final nature of the deal”.'
  • kle4 said:

    Graham Brady makes some sensible comments, I can see why he was knighted by Mrs May *cough*conspiracy*cough*

    Same reason Barclay got the brexit job? All down to talent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622

    Difficult to see how May can carry on if she loses the vote on her Brexit bill regardless of whether or not there is a no confidence vote. She’ll have no credibility having totally abandoned domestic policy to deliver a flagship deal even a majority of MPs, who are predominantly Remainers, reject. As we saw in the last election, she is an electoral liability when it comes to campaigning and policy formulation.

    On the other hand, if the ERG can’t even muster 48 letters and there are Tory MPs lying about having sent in letters, she might not lose her Brexit bill, even if it is nothing more than a surrender document.

    Such a shame Brady doesnt publish the list of whose letters he has so we can all see who the liars are.

    Oh I don't think you need to worry about the deal getting through, it needs a lot fewer than 48 rebels to scupper than and it definitely has more than that given the regulars and the ministerial resignations (and probably the gutless five if they doni't get changes).

    Not sure it is a shame about not publishing the list of letters - if a vote is not triggered it would be annoying that it was leaked for so long that they were so close and just about to do it, and very annoying if people have been lying, but there's no alternative as it is surely unreasonable to publish a list if the threshold is never reached, since it is an internal party matter, technically.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,429
    edited November 2018
    Despite not being able to score, England are playing some lovely football. While the focus is all on sir waistcoat, one guy who gets no credit outside of those in the game, Steve Holland. Quietly gone from Crewe academy manager through coaching ranks of Chelsea and now England.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    DavidL said:

    England aren’t going to score here are they....

    We really need Roger or DavidL to say that.
    Ok, England aren't going to score here are they?

    (I do my best to help)
    Don’t think even that is going to help. Sterling, Kane and rashford don’t look like they would score in a knocking shop this afternoon.
    Rashford usually plays better for England than he does for United, as does Lingard.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,588
    May should suspend an extra couple (of ERGers), just for a laugh. If she can work out which ones have actually submitted letters.
  • If the ERG are picking a fight with Brady about what the threshold is, they have lost. It's that simple.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    They can't count lorries, why should they be able to count votes?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,994

    kle4 said:

    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?

    Fluffers have become extinct since viagra was available.
    Do I note a hint of regret?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    Honestly, I still struggle to believe they have not or could not reach 48, and I think it is in their and the country's best interests to have a vote whatever the outcome, but that is some real weaksauce stuff.
  • kle4 said:

    Difficult to see how May can carry on if she loses the vote on her Brexit bill regardless of whether or not there is a no confidence vote. She’ll have no credibility having totally abandoned domestic policy to deliver a flagship deal even a majority of MPs, who are predominantly Remainers, reject. As we saw in the last election, she is an electoral liability when it comes to campaigning and policy formulation.

    On the other hand, if the ERG can’t even muster 48 letters and there are Tory MPs lying about having sent in letters, she might not lose her Brexit bill, even if it is nothing more than a surrender document.

    Such a shame Brady doesnt publish the list of whose letters he has so we can all see who the liars are.

    Oh I don't think you need to worry about the deal getting through, it needs a lot fewer than 48 rebels to scupper than and it definitely has more than that given the regulars and the ministerial resignations (and probably the gutless five if they doni't get changes).

    Not sure it is a shame about not publishing the list of letters - if a vote is not triggered it would be annoying that it was leaked for so long that they were so close and just about to do it, and very annoying if people have been lying, but there's no alternative as it is surely unreasonable to publish a list if the threshold is never reached, since it is an internal party matter, technically.
    Maybe, but if my MP was claiming to have sent a letter of no confidence in and was lying I would want to know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    alex. said:

    May should suspend an extra couple (of ERGers), just for a laugh. If she can work out which ones have actually submitted letters.
    Excellent stuff - she can wait for the challenge to come, suspend all her critics from the party, then they can have a court case about how the party's internal procedures have not been followed properly, that'll give her time to get to the EU summit at least.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    kle4 said:

    Honestly, I still struggle to believe they have not or could not reach 48, and I think it is in their and the country's best interests to have a vote whatever the outcome, but that is some real weaksauce stuff.
    Not a chicken stock. Not a beef stock. Definitely a laughing stock if they can't pull this off.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,245
    DavidL said:

    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.

    Am I the only person who thinks winning 160 votes in a VoNC wouldn't represent a firm affirmation of the Prime Minister's authority?

    The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.

    Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.

    A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,274
    Brady is playing a shrewd game. By turning up on the airwaves with his comments he is trying to let air out of the balloon so it doesn't go up.

    Will his approach succeed? Who knows.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Honestly, I still struggle to believe they have not or could not reach 48, and I think it is in their and the country's best interests to have a vote whatever the outcome, but that is some real weaksauce stuff.
    Not a chicken stock. Not a beef stock. Definitely a laughing stock if they can't pull this off.
    The thing is I know, I just know, that some ERGer out there is going to get all uppity when they do get to the 48, and be all 'Oh hey, I guess all those people mocking us for not being able to get to 48 were wrong, huh?', when personally getting there is I would incidental, the long term moaning without action, the constant threats, the repeated statements of being almost there of over the line, combine to make it mock worthy regardless if they do, as I would expect, get to the 48 eventually. It's certainly on a level of competence with May's premiership at the least.
  • kle4 said:

    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?

    Fluffers have become extinct since viagra was available.
    Do I note a hint of regret?
    No.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.

    Am I the only person who thinks winning 160 votes in a VoNC wouldn't represent a firm affirmation of the Prime Minister's authority?

    The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.

    Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.

    A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
    Didn't stop Corbyn (although given how freely I am comparing him to May perhaps she should be worried).

    I think her real problem though is that she's running out of replacements.
  • PM warns early election will be a disaster for the country....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46238525
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.

    Am I the only person who thinks winning 160 votes in a VoNC wouldn't represent a firm affirmation of the Prime Minister's authority?

    The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.

    Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.

    A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
    Under normal circumstances I would agree with you but these are not normal circumstances. We are going to face a series of difficult and binary choices in the near future. One of those may be should Mrs May be left in charge of the negotiations? Yes or no, no prevarication allowed. In the longer term when we can draw breath we will be looking for a better and more considered choice but for me Sir Graham's comments are spot on: now is not the time.
  • The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.

    Am I the only person who thinks winning 160 votes in a VoNC wouldn't represent a firm affirmation of the Prime Minister's authority?

    The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.

    Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.

    A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
    Not at all, I think all those points are correct. I certainly don't think she would be safe through winning a contest, just because under the procedures she could not be challenged in the same way for a year, as the entire cabinet could resign and others refuse to serve just to pick one example.

    Her authority is already gone, not least because she is being openly contradicted by her Cabinet, and most of the rest are in hiding and preparing theire 'I did not vote to bring May down, wink wink, but with her gone I now put myself forward as leader' speeches.

    So I don't think it is about restoring May's authority at all, or even necessarily, for the ERG, winning the vote. It's about showing the strengths of the various factions. Those voting against May will include more than just the ERG, so will reveal the number against the deal probably and possibly a few more. Since we already know that will be enough to vote down the deal I don't see why that means it won't go before parliament, so I think it is setting out those numbers so that once her deal is voted down, and she then resigns as I expect, all in the parliamentary party have an idea how many core loyalists there are, how many no dealers and new dealers combined, etc.
  • The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    But will she end up in leader in name only?
  • Blimey. What happens if he has 47.999 letters?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.

    Am I the only person who thinks winning 160 votes in a VoNC wouldn't represent a firm affirmation of the Prime Minister's authority?

    The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.

    Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.

    A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
    Didn't stop Corbyn (although given how freely I am comparing him to May perhaps she should be worried).

    I think her real problem though is that she's running out of replacements.
    He wasn't trying to run a government at the time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622

    kle4 said:

    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?

    Fluffers have become extinct since viagra was available.
    As a good muslim boy I think you mean, 'what is a fluffer?'
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    But will she end up in leader in name only?
    You mean LINO - and on the floor?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,614
    Y0kel said:

    Brady is playing a shrewd game. By turning up on the airwaves with his comments he is trying to let air out of the balloon so it doesn't go up.

    I was wondering something similar.

    Then again, perhaps it's just a response to Baker claiming he has 48 letters already, and the increasingly irritable whispers from the loons about why no VonC has been announced.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic if the ERG can't find 48 votes to trigger a VoNC how do they expect to find 159 to win one?

    It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.

    Am I the only person who thinks winning 160 votes in a VoNC wouldn't represent a firm affirmation of the Prime Minister's authority?

    The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.

    Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.

    A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
    Didn't stop Corbyn (although given how freely I am comparing him to May perhaps she should be worried).

    I think her real problem though is that she's running out of replacements.
    He wasn't trying to run a government at the time
    He was giving every indication of being unable to run a piss up in a brewery.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    Reminds me of Pratchett's joke that the odds had to be a million to one for it to come off. Any less and you had no chance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622

    The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    But will she end up in leader in name only?
    She already is, with all the comments that have been had about this deal not being government policy, it is all hers.
  • brendan16 said:

    The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    But will she end up in leader in name only?
    You mean LINO - and on the floor?
    I’ll setup em up, you knock em down...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,588
    edited November 2018
    Some of the ERG are so thick they don't understand that the Transition period (retaining all the benefits of the EU for a time limited period) is something that the British Govt requested and the EU conceded. I've found some people claiming it is "indefinite" because the document says we can request it to be extended once until "20XX" (interpreting this to be 2099). The fact that it (an extension) is something that we are obliged to request hasn't stopped them assuming it is a surrender to EU demands. If they don't understand the basic difference between the transition period (a UK request and an EU concession) and the Backstop, then what hope is there that there will ever be a deal that satisfies them? None whatsoever.

    OK, so this is Nadine Dorries, but we all knew that...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    DavidL said:

    The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    Reminds me of Pratchett's joke that the odds had to be a million to one for it to come off. Any less and you had no chance.
    Sadly reality does not ascribe so well to the theory of narrative causality. If it did a plucky hero would be emerging right now to lead us out of this chaos.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    Reminds me of Pratchett's joke that the odds had to be a million to one for it to come off. Any less and you had no chance.
    Sadly reality does not ascribe so well to the theory of narrative causality. If it did a plucky hero would be emerging right now to lead us out of this chaos.
    Stop giving Boris ideas...
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. kle4, impotence is unfortunate, but waving it around for everyone to see is just foolish.

    In unrelated news, I've just begun the Epic of Gilgamesh.
  • The best result in the vote of no confidence is if Mrs May won 52% to 48%.

    The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.

    Based upon how the Remain supporters like Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Morgan etc have behaved since the referendum, I rather doubt it.
  • FFS raheem....SHOOOOOOOOT..
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?

    Fluffers have become extinct since viagra was available.
    As a good muslim boy I think you mean, 'what is a fluffer?'
    Oh yeah.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018

    PM warns early election will be a disaster for the country....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46238525


    Would have been a surprise for her to have said anything else. She hasn’t got her surrender document on Brexit through Parliament, she has her own MPs in outright rebellion and she is totally inept at campaigning as we saw in the last election.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,245
    DavidL said:


    Under normal circumstances I would agree with you but these are not normal circumstances. We are going to face a series of difficult and binary choices in the near future. One of those may be should Mrs May be left in charge of the negotiations? Yes or no, no prevarication allowed. In the longer term when we can draw breath we will be looking for a better and more considered choice but for me Sir Graham's comments are spot on: now is not the time.

    Is the problem not the negotiation rather than the negotiator?

    The EU have made it clear the WA is their "offer" and there's no appetite for a fundamental re-negotiation. I found the WA a tough read but clearly others have found some significant problems with it and it is much nearer BINO than some who wanted us to leave expected or wanted.

    So there's the negotiation of now to get the WA in place to prevent us crashing out on 29/3/19 and the negotiation to come which ensures everything is in place so Transition ends on 31/12/20 and we fully exit the EU with no residual obligations or responsibilities.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,429
    edited November 2018

    PM warns early election will be a disaster for the country....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46238525


    Would have been a surprise for her to have said anything else. She hasn’t got get surrender document on Brexit through, she has her own MPs in outright rebellion and she is totally inept at campaigning as we saw in the last election.
    You clearly didn’t click the link...as you missed the gag.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612

    PM warns early election will be a disaster for the country....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46238525


    Would have been a surprise for her to have said anything else. She hasn’t got get surrender document on Brexit through, she has her own MPs in outright rebellion and she is totally inept at campaigning as we saw in the last election.
    You clearly didn’t click the link...as you missed the gag.
    Another form of fluffing...
  • The Brady interview was the most important today ..
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,456
    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    PM warns early election will be a disaster for the country....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46238525


    Would have been a surprise for her to have said anything else. She hasn’t got her surrender document on Brexit through Parliament, she has her own MPs in outright rebellion and she is totally inept at campaigning as we saw in the last election.
    Maybe we could dispatch her to Israel to try and agree a deal with the Palestinians. Given her mastery in such things she would probably have conceded half Israel's territory within a few weeks in return for frictionless trade of goods across the Israel/PA border.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,546

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    + 1
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 34,429
    edited November 2018
    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,994

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
  • Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    Well to be fair until then England have played some lovely football, which they haven’t been able to do for many many years.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,245

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    I doubt it would resolve things within either Party unless there was a clear-cut win for one side or the other. What would "Remain" mean for example - would we return to the status quo ante bellum (so to speak) so in effect our EU membership as is or would it represent any tacit acceptance of deeper integration down the line?

    I fail to see how going back to the unsatisfactory position that caused the referendum will suddenly make everyone satisfied.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,994

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    Well to be fair until then England have played some lovely football, which they haven’t been able to do for many many years.
    To be fair, I'm by no means the worlds most devoted football fan; go every so often to watch our local (very) lower league side, and my granddaughters in their seven-a-side league but that's about it.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,716
    stodge said:

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    I doubt it would resolve things within either Party unless there was a clear-cut win for one side or the other. What would "Remain" mean for example - would we return to the status quo ante bellum (so to speak) so in effect our EU membership as is or would it represent any tacit acceptance of deeper integration down the line?

    I fail to see how going back to the unsatisfactory position that caused the referendum will suddenly make everyone satisfied.
    So how would you propose to define a "satisfactory" position, and how would we get to it?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited November 2018

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    So you would have a second referendum proposed by the Tories which possibly the majority of their activists and potentially many of their voters would abstain in as they cannot support either option. I can see why Labour would favour that but it would surely create a backlash if you didn't offer no deal as well.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,749
    edited November 2018
    brendan16 said:

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    So you would have a second referendum proposed by the Tories which the majority of their activists and potentially many of their voters would abstain in as they cannot support either option. I can see why Labour would favour that but it would surely create a backlash if you didn't offer no deal as well.
    It couldn't be proposed by the Tories, but maybe it could be the choice of parliament.

    As I've said before, starting from here all options are impossible. It's just a question of finding the least impossible. (FWIW I think that might still be the deal that is on the table, together with a stronger declaration on the final relationship).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    Y0kel said:

    Brady is playing a shrewd game. By turning up on the airwaves with his comments he is trying to let air out of the balloon so it doesn't go up.

    Will his approach succeed? Who knows.

    And very keen to remind people that they can withdraw letters already sent. Before he decides to check his inbox on Monday morning would be nice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,612
    IanB2 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brady is playing a shrewd game. By turning up on the airwaves with his comments he is trying to let air out of the balloon so it doesn't go up.

    Will his approach succeed? Who knows.

    And very keen to remind people that they can withdraw letters already sent. Before he decides to check his inbox on Monday morning would be nice.
    Doesn't he have to check they are all still valid before holding the vote?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,402
    alex. said:

    Some of the ERG are so thick they don't understand that the Transition period (retaining all the benefits of the EU for a time limited period) is something that the British Govt requested and the EU conceded. I've found some people claiming it is "indefinite" because the document says we can request it to be extended once until "20XX" (interpreting this to be 2099). The fact that it (an extension) is something that we are obliged to request hasn't stopped them assuming it is a surrender to EU demands. If they don't understand the basic difference between the transition period (a UK request and an EU concession) and the Backstop, then what hope is there that there will ever be a deal that satisfies them? None whatsoever.

    OK, so this is Nadine Dorries, but we all knew that...

    The majority of opposition to the WA is founded on misapprehension and misunderstanding.

    Ffs is took a few hours to read on the night it was published. I’m disappointed that more pols haven’t read it.
  • IanB2 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Brady is playing a shrewd game. By turning up on the airwaves with his comments he is trying to let air out of the balloon so it doesn't go up.

    Will his approach succeed? Who knows.

    And very keen to remind people that they can withdraw letters already sent. Before he decides to check his inbox on Monday morning would be nice.
    I think it is because his shredder has warn out and he is worried about how it will look claiming another on expenses.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042
    alex. said:

    Some of the ERG are so thick they don't understand that the Transition period (retaining all the benefits of the EU for a time limited period) is something that the British Govt requested and the EU conceded. I've found some people claiming it is "indefinite" because the document says we can request it to be extended once until "20XX" (interpreting this to be 2099). The fact that it (an extension) is something that we are obliged to request hasn't stopped them assuming it is a surrender to EU demands. If they don't understand the basic difference between the transition period (a UK request and an EU concession) and the Backstop, then what hope is there that there will ever be a deal that satisfies them? None whatsoever.

    OK, so this is Nadine Dorries, but we all knew that...

    What happens if they screw the dummies over in trade deal and want unrealistic concessions , how does UK get out of that. That is for sure the likely scenario.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    They will be in same section as Scotland

  • malcolmg said:

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    They will be in same section as Scotland

    Oh well plenty of easy games then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    Well to be fair until then England have played some lovely football, which they haven’t been able to do for many many years.
    At the least the points for style and artistic impression should see us through?
  • stodge said:

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    I doubt it would resolve things within either Party unless there was a clear-cut win for one side or the other. What would "Remain" mean for example - would we return to the status quo ante bellum (so to speak) so in effect our EU membership as is or would it represent any tacit acceptance of deeper integration down the line?

    I fail to see how going back to the unsatisfactory position that caused the referendum will suddenly make everyone satisfied.
    Surely if we are going to have another referendum then we will need to extend the leaving date beyond the end of March as there won't be enough time, at which point when we're asking for the extension we also ask the EU what "remaining" would actually mean.

    I assume, anyway...
  • Forget progressive football, Wang the long throw in ala stoke in the early 2000s
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. kle4, impotence is unfortunate, but waving it around for everyone to see is just foolish.

    In unrelated news, I've just begun the Epic of Gilgamesh.

    Hasn't that one been done already, Mr D ?

    Still, it was about four millennia back, so the chances are you might get away with it...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
    Rawnsley, Observer:


    The Labour leadership has spent many months skilfully, if cynically, ... pretending that it could negotiate all the benefits of membership of the EU while still leaving. We all know this is tripe. For the moment, Labour is just about hanging together around rejection of Mrs May’s deal. This is the common point that can still unite Mr Corbyn, his Remainer MPs and Labour members. The leadership will vote against the deal because it is a “Tory Brexit” and they think that combining with the Moggites in the division lobbies to defeat the government will somehow precipitate an early general election. Remainer Labour MPs will vote against the deal in the hope that doing so will pave the way to a further referendum. But if Mrs May’s deal goes down and there isn’t a general election, then what? There will be no hiding places left for the Labour leadership. Mr Corbyn will be confronted with the choice that he has been desperate to avoid.

    Theresa May has made her choices. For others, the agonising has only just begun. It will soon be time for everyone else to take responsibility for fateful decisions of their own.
  • IanB2 said:

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    Well to be fair until then England have played some lovely football, which they haven’t been able to do for many many years.
    At the least the points for style and artistic impression should see us through?
    Don’t think get many style and artistic impression points for the goal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,042

    malcolmg said:

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    They will be in same section as Scotland

    Oh well plenty of easy games then.
    I will have you know we thrashed Albania last night
  • Mr. B, I'm reading it not writing it, you tinker, you.

    I've just finished the first tablet. The moral of which seems to be that men can be tamed by naked women, and a man without a friend is a bit of a git.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Oh FFS...you knew this was coming...looks like England will be playing the likes of Faroe Islands in the next nations league.

    Same old, same old.
    They will be in same section as Scotland

    Oh well plenty of easy games then.
    I will have you know we thrashed Albania last night
    Disappointing...I set up for for saying yes another easy team for Scotland to beat...
  • GOoooooooooooooooallllllllllll.....
  • Sir waistcoat, is good to be lucky....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,994

    Sir waistcoat, is good to be lucky....

    Good for them!
  • This nations league idea....always said it was a rubbish idea that wouldn’t be in the slightest bit exciting...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,056

    kle4 said:

    If the ERG are an impotent porn star who is going to act as fluffer?

    Fluffers have become extinct since viagra was available.
    I shouldn't ask what a "fluffer" is, should I?
  • Miss Cyclefree, probably not.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,056
    ydoethur said:

    They can't count lorries, why should they be able to count votes?

    VM for you.
This discussion has been closed.