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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,361
    edited November 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, it does feel right that the summary is really that the Tories are more divided, and Labour have plenty of opinions but pretty much focused on Remain when you get right down to it.

    Hopefully at some point soon that can be the divide between the two - not that I want Brexit to be entirely a partisan issue, but we may as well make it a remain party and a leave party now.

    If only it were that simple.

    The problem is that the Leave side falls into two camps: those who wanted to leave the EU because it was too protectionist, and those who wanted to leave it because it wasn't protectionist enough.

    Which Leave group should the Leave Party represent?
    Assuming it is the Labour leavers who want more protection - they are only a very small group of five or six.
    I was just speaking in very broad terms, but I would estimate that perhaps half the Leave vote came from people who didn't like competing in a global world (and I'd include globalised "labour" there), and half came from people who believed that the EU prevented more competition with the rest of the world. This isn't a simple left/right debate, but it makes it hard to create a coherent Leave political party.

    Or at least one that lasts much beyond the point of a referendum being won.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,361

    Floater said:
    Fake psychiatrist for 20 years in the NHS.

    The deception by Alemi, thought to be of Iranian extraction, was only discovered after she was convicted of trying to fake the will of an elderly woman to steal her £1.3 million fortune.

    But she did choose a red Lotus Elise as her car - so not all bad.
    I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. This was pre-Internet days (well, pre widespread Internet days), and she'd only need her qualifications scrutinised in her first job. If it was a hard pressed hospital looking for a locum for a few weeks, in a psychiatry role, then if she seemed plausible and possessed all the right documents, why would you go to the trouble of calling New Zealand (from phones that probably weren't allowed to dial international)?

    And once she's had one role inside the NHS, irrespective of how minor, then people will assume that her qualifications were checked at the start of the process.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,605

    Mr Trump added that it may be no one will find out who was behind the killing...

    "But at the same time we do have an ally and I want to stick with an ally that in many ways has been very good," he added.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46254571

    It is like Corbyn response on Russia...we just know, it could be anybody....

    I look forward to his proposing tough sanctions on Saudi Arabia... unless by that you meant it was nothing like Corbyn's response to Russia....

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-vladimir-putin-theresa-may-sergei-skripal-magnitsky-laws-a8253786.html
    You aren't convincing anybody. His own MPs were aghast at his response and it wasn't just that day in the HoC.
    I don't need to convince to anybody, it is there on the record, whether people believe the Earth is flat isn't particularly a problem to me but I'll point out it isn't. John Woodcock is constantly aghast, he is also on record as preferring a Tory government so not exactly an unbiased source.

    If Trump is acting like Corbyn I look forward to the incoming sanctions. If as I suspect his actions are not like Corbyn's but he more follows a Tory model in regards to the Saudis they should be fine.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 27,361

    This article sets out the caveats and context on Rightmove House Price Data quite well. But it's another data point showing economic slowndown. If it meant stable low inflation House price in perpetuity even I might be a leaver. But I suspect we've just artificially pricked an artificial bubble which was artificially inflated to keep the post Coalition austerity drive economy on track.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/nov/19/uk-house-prices-fall-5000-brexit-south-november-rightmove?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    The fundamental problem the UK can best be described like this: When you go into the Apple store on Regent Street and buy an iPhone with borrowed money, then you are adding a lot more to UK GDP than to Chinese GDP.

    Our economy is dominated by borrowing from abroad to spend money on importing things made abroad. And this generates GDP through the work to unload the carton of iPhones from the plane. The money spent on petrol and on the driver's salary to get the carton to the Apple store. The money spent on assistants and rent and advertising.

    All that adds to our GDP. But it's all derived from borrowing from abroad. The "strength" of the UK economy is that its people spend more than they earn. If that ever comes to an end - as happened to Spain in the 2010-2014 period - then it will be extremely painful.
  • rcs1000 said:

    This article sets out the caveats and context on Rightmove House Price Data quite well. But it's another data point showing economic slowndown. If it meant stable low inflation House price in perpetuity even I might be a leaver. But I suspect we've just artificially pricked an artificial bubble which was artificially inflated to keep the post Coalition austerity drive economy on track.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/nov/19/uk-house-prices-fall-5000-brexit-south-november-rightmove?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    The fundamental problem the UK can best be described like this: When you go into the Apple store on Regent Street and buy an iPhone with borrowed money, then you are adding a lot more to UK GDP than to Chinese GDP.

    Our economy is dominated by borrowing from abroad to spend money on importing things made abroad. And this generates GDP through the work to unload the carton of iPhones from the plane. The money spent on petrol and on the driver's salary to get the carton to the Apple store. The money spent on assistants and rent and advertising.

    All that adds to our GDP. But it's all derived from borrowing from abroad. The "strength" of the UK economy is that its people spend more than they earn. If that ever comes to an end - as happened to Spain in the 2010-2014 period - then it will be extremely painful.
    Agreed completely.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Woken by the mutt's noise. But, being too sleepy to be productive and too awake to return to bed should make it the perfect time to listen to the podcast.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Foxy said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Depends what time and day Brady checks his pigeonhole.
    And there is no audit process. Who knows if Brady did not get one or two sent in the post?
    Even if the magic number of 48 is eventually reached, the wind has gone out of any rebellion and I would expect May to win a VoC by a country mile. With respect to the Deal, I suspect that May actually wants there to be close economic ties to the EU in the long-term, so is quite happy with it and doesn't see the flaws for what they are. However, she could well be brought down if the Deal is rejected by a substantial margin in the HoC.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,448
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:
    Fake psychiatrist for 20 years in the NHS.

    The deception by Alemi, thought to be of Iranian extraction, was only discovered after she was convicted of trying to fake the will of an elderly woman to steal her £1.3 million fortune.

    But she did choose a red Lotus Elise as her car - so not all bad.
    I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. This was pre-Internet days (well, pre widespread Internet days), and she'd only need her qualifications scrutinised in her first job. If it was a hard pressed hospital looking for a locum for a few weeks, in a psychiatry role, then if she seemed plausible and possessed all the right documents, why would you go to the trouble of calling New Zealand (from phones that probably weren't allowed to dial international)?

    And once she's had one role inside the NHS, irrespective of how minor, then people will assume that her qualifications were checked at the start of the process.
    Some years ago there was a GP in West Yorkshire who, it turned out, wasn’t qualified, although he’d practised for several years. IIRC local pharmacists drew attention to his sometimes irrational prescribing but he was rallied round. Can’t recall all the details, but will try and find out!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,520
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, it does feel right that the summary is really that the Tories are more divided, and Labour have plenty of opinions but pretty much focused on Remain when you get right down to it.

    Hopefully at some point soon that can be the divide between the two - not that I want Brexit to be entirely a partisan issue, but we may as well make it a remain party and a leave party now.

    If only it were that simple.

    The problem is that the Leave side falls into two camps: those who wanted to leave the EU because it was too protectionist, and those who wanted to leave it because it wasn't protectionist enough.

    Which Leave group should the Leave Party represent?
    Both camps will be disappointed by the reality of Brexit. We'll stayed tied to the EU without the protections of the EU.
  • Mr. Daodao, might depend on timing. Right now, I'd agree. But if the vote were held after the deal failing to pass the Commons, it would not help May.
  • Of course if the Status Quo Transition lasts til December 2022 then that year's General Election becomes a Brexit election. Absolutely everything it anything can be overridden via party manifesto. A People's Vote to coin a phrase.

    Whatever you want
    Whatever you like
    Whatever you say
    You pay your money

    You take your choice
    Whatever you need
    Whatever you use
    Whatever you win
    Whatever you lose

    You're showing off
    You're showing out
    You look for trouble
    Turn around, give me a shout

    Status Quo
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,957




    And there is no audit process. Who knows if Brady did not get one or two sent in the post?

    Basing the whole system on the personal integrity of a single tory, a breed not known for their ethics, seems mad but here we are.
  • daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Depends what time and day Brady checks his pigeonhole.
    And there is no audit process. Who knows if Brady did not get one or two sent in the post?
    Even if the magic number of 48 is eventually reached, the wind has gone out of any rebellion and I would expect May to win a VoC by a country mile. With respect to the Deal, I suspect that May actually wants there to be close economic ties to the EU in the long-term, so is quite happy with it and doesn't see the flaws for what they are. However, she could well be brought down if the Deal is rejected by a substantial margin in the HoC.
    I think that is premature. The reason why the ERG has gone for VONC now is because they are banking on a similar polling reaction to what happened with Chequers to scare the vast majority of Conservative MPs who just care for their jobs that May is about to lead them to electoral oblivion. So the polls over the weekend would have suited them very nicely. It creates a sense of panic and a feeling that something must be done.

    Now, TSE and others will tell you that we should all calm down, that the polling returned to normal after a few weeks and that everything is fine. The difference now is the news cycle. Chequers was published right in the middle of the World Cup and just before the hysteria about England winning the World Cup reached its peak. It was therefore subsumed by the other news (remember The Sun telling the politicians not to ruin the World Cup).

    Now, there is no comparable news event to "hide" things. Up to Christmas, it will be all about Brexit. The ERG will be there explaining why the deal is so bad and, in likelihood, create the view that TM has sold out - which will hit the Conservatives in the polls and so feed the argument that TM must be replaced. It actually isn't a bad strategy from the ERG's standpoint.

  • felixfelix Posts: 9,147
    The man would fit comfortably in a group including fellow morons like BOJO and JRM. It amazes me that any sane person would consider him suitable to run a bath let alone a major political party.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,448
    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596
    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,437

    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!

    The deal has terrible optics.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,535
    edited November 2018
    Made me smile

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596

    Of course if the Status Quo Transition lasts til December 2022 then that year's General Election becomes a Brexit election. Absolutely everything it anything can be overridden via party manifesto. A People's Vote to coin a phrase.

    Whatever you want
    Whatever you like
    Whatever you say
    You pay your money

    You take your choice
    Whatever you need
    Whatever you use
    Whatever you win
    Whatever you lose

    You're showing off
    You're showing out
    You look for trouble
    Turn around, give me a shout

    Status Quo
    Down down, deeper and down....

    Status Quo
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,839

    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!

    The deal has terrible optics.
    Yet she insists it’s our best shot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596

    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!

    The deal has terrible optics.
    May is glass half full. But the Cabinet Five are going doubles or quits.
  • A plan by a group of Brexiteer cabinet ministers to try to force a change in policy on the prime minister appeared to be breaking down. Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is understood not to be planning to attend a meeting scheduled for this morning to discuss tactics. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has also distanced himself from the plan.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don-t-hunt-may-like-thatcher-tories-told-by-andrew-mitchell-8snhj6slf
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,839

    A plan by a group of Brexiteer cabinet ministers to try to force a change in policy on the prime minister appeared to be breaking down. Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is understood not to be planning to attend a meeting scheduled for this morning to discuss tactics. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has also distanced himself from the plan.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don-t-hunt-may-like-thatcher-tories-told-by-andrew-mitchell-8snhj6slf

    It’s funny - one could almost conclude that there is no consensus on any possible option other than this deal or remain, were it not for the confident assurances of prominent leavers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,530
    kle4 said:

    On topic, I'm not entirely persuaded by Matt and Keiran's delving into the numbers to suggest a slightly more nuanced Brexit view from the public, even if it is still very bad for May. The filtering out of the don't knows perhaps is relevant as they suggest.

    Much of the opposition is instinctive and emotional - starting from the position of being against the deal and then hunting around for supporting arguments (the Spectator found forty such, many of which were wrong and a few simply made up) - very few people have actually read the deal. So it isn't unreasonable to suggest that the don't knows are at least prepared to give the deal a hearing and at best happy to go along with it should it be agreed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,535

    Of course if the Status Quo Transition lasts til December 2022 then that year's General Election becomes a Brexit election. Absolutely everything it anything can be overridden via party manifesto. A People's Vote to coin a phrase.

    Whatever you want
    Whatever you like
    Whatever you say
    You pay your money

    You take your choice
    Whatever you need
    Whatever you use
    Whatever you win
    Whatever you lose

    You're showing off
    You're showing out
    You look for trouble
    Turn around, give me a shout

    Status Quo
    Down down, deeper and down....

    Status Quo
    Cheer yourself up with Carey Mulligan's performance in 'Wilderness'. So far between her and Jessica Lange for 'best actress'

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,448

    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!

    The deal has terrible optics.
    May is glass half full. But the Cabinet Five are going doubles or quits.
    I ‘shared’ the chap a Remain advert in return. May well see him if I go to our local football team on Saturday. Could be interesting!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,437
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, I'm not entirely persuaded by Matt and Keiran's delving into the numbers to suggest a slightly more nuanced Brexit view from the public, even if it is still very bad for May. The filtering out of the don't knows perhaps is relevant as they suggest.

    Much of the opposition is instinctive and emotional - starting from the position of being against the deal and then hunting around for supporting arguments (the Spectator found forty such, many of which were wrong and a few simply made up) - very few people have actually read the deal. So it isn't unreasonable to suggest that the don't knows are at least prepared to give the deal a hearing and at best happy to go along with it should it be agreed.
    The question is why Brexiteers are instictively against the deal? I think the core reason is that whatever the details, the deal embodies the fact that Brexit won’t make the EU go away. You can’t fix that by explaining the details to them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596
    Roger said:

    Of course if the Status Quo Transition lasts til December 2022 then that year's General Election becomes a Brexit election. Absolutely everything it anything can be overridden via party manifesto. A People's Vote to coin a phrase.

    Whatever you want
    Whatever you like
    Whatever you say
    You pay your money

    You take your choice
    Whatever you need
    Whatever you use
    Whatever you win
    Whatever you lose

    You're showing off
    You're showing out
    You look for trouble
    Turn around, give me a shout

    Status Quo
    Down down, deeper and down....

    Status Quo
    Cheer yourself up with Carey Mulligan's performance in 'Wilderness'. So far between her and Jessica Lange for 'best actress'

    Good Lady Wifi has seen The Favourite and thought it brilliant.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,545
    Polruan said:

    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!

    The deal has terrible optics.
    Yet she insists it’s our best shot.
    Thts the spirit!
  • Mr. Mark/Mr. Song, ha. Surprised Burning Bridges wasn't cited.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,545

    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:
    Fake psychiatrist for 20 years in the NHS.

    The deception by Alemi, thought to be of Iranian extraction, was only discovered after she was convicted of trying to fake the will of an elderly woman to steal her £1.3 million fortune.

    But she did choose a red Lotus Elise as her car - so not all bad.
    I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. This was pre-Internet days (well, pre widespread Internet days), and she'd only need her qualifications scrutinised in her first job. If it was a hard pressed hospital looking for a locum for a few weeks, in a psychiatry role, then if she seemed plausible and possessed all the right documents, why would you go to the trouble of calling New Zealand (from phones that probably weren't allowed to dial international)?

    And once she's had one role inside the NHS, irrespective of how minor, then people will assume that her qualifications were checked at the start of the process.
    Some years ago there was a GP in West Yorkshire who, it turned out, wasn’t qualified, although he’d practised for several years. IIRC local pharmacists drew attention to his sometimes irrational prescribing but he was rallied round. Can’t recall all the details, but will try and find out!
    I remember that one too.

    It does seem that it was just her primary degree that was forged, so she would have come as a newly qualified junior doctor, and presumably done her postgraduate psychiatry exams here, so as to qualify for the specialist register. This would fit with her age too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,530

    GIN1138 said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Think tomorrow is THE day.

    If they don't get 48 letters tomorrow ERG is indeed all piss and wind!

    We shall see....
    My guess is Baker and Mogg have been led up the garden path by MPs who talk a good rebellion in the Red Lion after 4 pints, but don't actually write any letters.

    We shall see tomorrow.
    That would be divine justice for the people who led the country up the garden path by spouting tosh from the saloon bar but didn't actually have any plan.
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,147

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,545
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:
    Fake psychiatrist for 20 years in the NHS.

    The deception by Alemi, thought to be of Iranian extraction, was only discovered after she was convicted of trying to fake the will of an elderly woman to steal her £1.3 million fortune.

    But she did choose a red Lotus Elise as her car - so not all bad.
    I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. This was pre-Internet days (well, pre widespread Internet days), and she'd only need her qualifications scrutinised in her first job. If it was a hard pressed hospital looking for a locum for a few weeks, in a psychiatry role, then if she seemed plausible and possessed all the right documents, why would you go to the trouble of calling New Zealand (from phones that probably weren't allowed to dial international)?

    And once she's had one role inside the NHS, irrespective of how minor, then people will assume that her qualifications were checked at the start of the process.
    The hospital would have just checked her against the GMC register. It is the GMC that was fooled.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,530
    edited November 2018
    Polruan said:

    A plan by a group of Brexiteer cabinet ministers to try to force a change in policy on the prime minister appeared to be breaking down. Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is understood not to be planning to attend a meeting scheduled for this morning to discuss tactics. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has also distanced himself from the plan.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don-t-hunt-may-like-thatcher-tories-told-by-andrew-mitchell-8snhj6slf

    It’s funny - one could almost conclude that there is no consensus on any possible option other than this deal or remain, were it not for the confident assurances of prominent leavers.
    There isn't, and never has been; these are people who prefer criticising others rather than getting their hands dirty themselves. And they are being led by Leadsom.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,530
    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    He thinks it's a just short step from the occupants of the Torquay Conservative Club bar of a late night weekend (about 7pm in Torquay) to "virtually everybody".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,535

    Roger said:

    Of course if the Status Quo Transition lasts til December 2022 then that year's General Election becomes a Brexit election. Absolutely everything it anything can be overridden via party manifesto. A People's Vote to coin a phrase.

    Whatever you want
    Whatever you like
    Whatever you say
    You pay your money

    You take your choice
    Whatever you need
    Whatever you use
    Whatever you win
    Whatever you lose

    You're showing off
    You're showing out
    You look for trouble
    Turn around, give me a shout

    Status Quo
    Down down, deeper and down....

    Status Quo
    Cheer yourself up with Carey Mulligan's performance in 'Wilderness'. So far between her and Jessica Lange for 'best actress'

    Good Lady Wifi has seen The Favourite and thought it brilliant.
    Opens next week. I'll look forward to it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596
    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,530

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    No. In such a circumstance she will be secure for at least a year with the backing of a clear majority of her MPs.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,074
    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596
    edited November 2018

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    On topic, I'm not entirely persuaded by Matt and Keiran's delving into the numbers to suggest a slightly more nuanced Brexit view from the public, even if it is still very bad for May. The filtering out of the don't knows perhaps is relevant as they suggest.

    Much of the opposition is instinctive and emotional - starting from the position of being against the deal and then hunting around for supporting arguments (the Spectator found forty such, many of which were wrong and a few simply made up) - very few people have actually read the deal. So it isn't unreasonable to suggest that the don't knows are at least prepared to give the deal a hearing and at best happy to go along with it should it be agreed.
    The question is why Brexiteers are instictively against the deal? I think the core reason is that whatever the details, the deal embodies the fact that Brexit won’t make the EU go away. You can’t fix that by explaining the details to them.
    Brexiteers are instinctively against the deal because it is Hotel California Brexit - we can check out, but there is no mechanism that assures we can ever Leave. That is the fundamental flaw of the deal May has brought back. Not securing that is what will finish her...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 28,596
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    He thinks it's a just short step from the occupants of the Torquay Conservative Club bar of a late night weekend (about 7pm in Torquay) to "virtually everybody".
    Except, I don't drink.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,074

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    Whats one letter amonst friends ;) I do agree (as a remainder) that having no way out (if thats true) unless the EU agree is sub optimal in any deal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,813
    So the Cons view is that Labour not voting with the government on the deal would be against the national interest while, according to Michael Howard this morning, to extend the transition period in order to get a more orderly Brexit would be bad because it would take us up to the next general election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,813

    Hmm. Just had a’share’ sent to me on Facebook from a drinking acquaintance.

    ‘I voted for Leave. Not some half measure!’

    Just a thought!

    I had the same thought. He's still drunk.
  • felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    It's a secret ballot, nobody needs to admit they think she got an adequate deal.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,535
    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    There seems a most unlikely wave of sympathy and support for Theresa at the moment. In that respect she's lucky that her opponents are all such freaks. There's also the British love for the plucky underdog particularly when it's women being beaten up by men.

    I heard several people yesterday make supportive comments none of whom had the slightest idea what 'THE DEAL' was all about but I suspect very few have. I doubt one in a thousand understand or even give a shit what Irish backstops are. It Just makes the crazies seem crazier.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 21,530

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:
    Fake psychiatrist for 20 years in the NHS.

    The deception by Alemi, thought to be of Iranian extraction, was only discovered after she was convicted of trying to fake the will of an elderly woman to steal her £1.3 million fortune.

    But she did choose a red Lotus Elise as her car - so not all bad.
    I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. This was pre-Internet days (well, pre widespread Internet days), and she'd only need her qualifications scrutinised in her first job. If it was a hard pressed hospital looking for a locum for a few weeks, in a psychiatry role, then if she seemed plausible and possessed all the right documents, why would you go to the trouble of calling New Zealand (from phones that probably weren't allowed to dial international)?

    And once she's had one role inside the NHS, irrespective of how minor, then people will assume that her qualifications were checked at the start of the process.
    Some years ago there was a GP in West Yorkshire who, it turned out, wasn’t qualified, although he’d practised for several years. IIRC local pharmacists drew attention to his sometimes irrational prescribing but he was rallied round. Can’t recall all the details, but will try and find out!
    I remember that one too.

    It does seem that it was just her primary degree that was forged, so she would have come as a newly qualified junior doctor, and presumably done her postgraduate psychiatry exams here, so as to qualify for the specialist register. This would fit with her age too.
    Isn't there a staffing crisis in the NHS. Removing the need for qualifications to be genuine would help a lot. Can't see any obvious downside.
  • IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

  • felixfelix Posts: 9,147

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    Still don't like the polling evidence I see. Cuckoo!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    edited November 2018
    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,147

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    Wrong again.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,839

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    Wasn’t it agreed recently that the number of letters already received is a constant of around 47.9999? If so that’s definitely >47.25 so worth an argument I guess.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,599
    edited November 2018
    Imagine a hypothetical situation...

    A southern EU state, Mediterranea, does something politically and/or economically that the EU doesn't like. Maybe the state needs some help to achieve its goals.

    The EU comes in and offers help at a price and on the strictest terms. It explains that if the state doesn't adopt these terms then the world will end.

    The terms are complex and the state adopts a dull, technocratic leader capable of explaining the stark choice to the public and gets to work to pass it through the legislature. The party loyalists get behind the technocrat, claiming anyone else is mad.

    The state adjusts policy, for fear of armageddon, and takes the EU package. The moment of change passes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,839
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
  • felixfelix Posts: 9,147

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    He thinks it's a just short step from the occupants of the Torquay Conservative Club bar of a late night weekend (about 7pm in Torquay) to "virtually everybody".
    Except, I don't drink.....
    Shame..another excuse bites the dust.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060

    A plan by a group of Brexiteer cabinet ministers to try to force a change in policy on the prime minister appeared to be breaking down. Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is understood not to be planning to attend a meeting scheduled for this morning to discuss tactics. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has also distanced himself from the plan.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don-t-hunt-may-like-thatcher-tories-told-by-andrew-mitchell-8snhj6slf

    So looks like Leadsom and maybe Grayling too could be resigning all by themselves, I am sure May will be devastated to lose such titanic figures from.her Cabinet
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,437
    Jonathan said:

    Imagine a hypothetical situation...

    A southern EU state, Mediterranea, does something politically and/or economically that the EU doesn't like. Maybe the state needs some help to achieve its goals.

    The EU comes in and offers help at a price and on the strictest terms. It explains that if the state doesn't adopt these terms then the world will end.

    The terms are complex and the state adopts a dull, technocratic leader capable of explaining the stark choice to the public and gets to work to pass it through the legislature. The party loyalists get behind the technocrat, claiming anyone else is mad.

    The state adjusts policy, fear of armageddon, and takes the EU package. The moment of change passes.

    Maybe there’s a scenario where a Corbyn win leads to Peter Mandeslon becoming PM. :lol:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,599

    Jonathan said:

    Imagine a hypothetical situation...

    A southern EU state, Mediterranea, does something politically and/or economically that the EU doesn't like. Maybe the state needs some help to achieve its goals.

    The EU comes in and offers help at a price and on the strictest terms. It explains that if the state doesn't adopt these terms then the world will end.

    The terms are complex and the state adopts a dull, technocratic leader capable of explaining the stark choice to the public and gets to work to pass it through the legislature. The party loyalists get behind the technocrat, claiming anyone else is mad.

    The state adjusts policy, fear of armageddon, and takes the EU package. The moment of change passes.

    Maybe there’s a scenario where a Corbyn win leads to Peter Mandeslon becoming PM. :lol:
    What's the point when May is filling the role so admirably?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,839
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Depends what time and day Brady checks his pigeonhole.
    And there is no audit process. Who knows if Brady did not get one or two sent in the post?
    Even if the magic number of 48 is eventually reached, the wind has gone out of any rebellion and I would expect May to win a VoC by a country mile. With respect to the Deal, I suspect that May actually wants there to be close economic ties to the EU in the long-term, so is quite happy with it and doesn't see the flaws for what they are. However, she could well be brought down if the Deal is rejected by a substantial margin in the HoC.
    I think that is premature. The reason why the ERG has gone for VONC now is because they are banking on a similar polling reaction to what happened with Chequers to scare the vast majority of Conservative MPs who just care for their jobs that May is about to lead them to electoral oblivion. So the polls over the weekend would have suited them very nicely. It creates a sense of panic and a feeling that something must be done.

    Now, TSE and others will tell you that we should all calm down, that the polling returned to normal after a few weeks and that everything is fine. The difference now is the news cycle. Chequers was published right in the middle of the World Cup and just before the hysteria about England winning the World Cup reached its peak. It was therefore subsumed by the other news (remember The Sun telling the politicians not to ruin the World Cup).

    Now, there is no comparable news event to "hide" things. Up to Christmas, it will be all about Brexit. The ERG will be there explaining why the deal is so bad and, in likelihood, create the view that TM has sold out - which will hit the Conservatives in the polls and so feed the argument that TM must be replaced. It actually isn't a bad strategy from the ERG's standpoint.

    The Tories still on 36% is not 'electoral oblivion' it would still give them more seats than Corbyn has now and match the voteshare Cameron got.

    Still plenty of time for Kipper protest voters to finish their tantrum when faced with the prospect of PM Corbyn as well as was the case post Chequers Deal
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,344

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    I think May's team have successfully rubbished it to the point that further MP additions are unlikely. The ERG would be better off saying that their supporters have decided to focus on opposing the deal than trying to bring May down - the current position of saying "er, maybe it's 47" is just embarrassing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    edited November 2018
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
  • Wingnut up bright and early... at least not long to wait to know...

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    I think May's team have successfully rubbished it to the point that further MP additions are unlikely. The ERG would be better off saying that their supporters have decided to focus on opposing the deal than trying to bring May down - the current position of saying "er, maybe it's 47" is just embarrassing.
    Nick

    Do you agree with Corbyn's view that he could negotiate a deal where the UK would have all the benefits of being in the EU, despite not being in it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 11,545

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:
    Fake psychiatrist for 20 years in the NHS.

    The deception by Alemi, thought to be of Iranian extraction, was only discovered after she was convicted of trying to fake the will of an elderly woman to steal her £1.3 million fortune.

    But she did choose a red Lotus Elise as her car - so not all bad.
    I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often. This was pre-Internet days (well, pre widespread Internet days), and she'd only need her qualifications scrutinised in her first job. If it was a hard pressed hospital looking for a locum for a few weeks, in a psychiatry role, then if she seemed plausible and possessed all the right documents, why would you go to the trouble of calling New Zealand (from phones that probably weren't allowed to dial international)?

    And once she's had one role inside the NHS, irrespective of how minor, then people will assume that her qualifications were checked at the start of the process.
    Some years ago there was a GP in West Yorkshire who, it turned out, wasn’t qualified, although he’d practised for several years. IIRC local pharmacists drew attention to his sometimes irrational prescribing but he was rallied round. Can’t recall all the details, but will try and find out!
    I remember that one too.

    It does seem that it was just her primary degree that was forged, so she would have come as a newly qualified junior doctor, and presumably done her postgraduate psychiatry exams here, so as to qualify for the specialist register. This would fit with her age too.
    Isn't there a staffing crisis in the NHS. Removing the need for qualifications to be genuine would help a lot. Can't see any obvious downside.
    Having seen some dodgy locums, who I wouldn't trust to cut their own toenails, I agree!
  • HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single question. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which one question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    I think two rounds are the path of least resistance, because:
    1) Using a better voting system legitimizes better voting systems, which some people in Britain oppose
    2) The losing side (especially if it's Leave) will try to make out that the vote was some kind of trick (you may recall the whole "does AV let you vote twice" argument that filled the comments here for weeks), and it's harder to make up theories about a separate vote.

    It would cost a little bit more, but I imagine there are economies of scale.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    What Theresa May could learn from Sir Edward Heath on getting her Deal through

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46254257
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Off-topic:

    Chaos in south London this morning after all services into Waterloo cancelled due to overrunning works by the nationalised Network Rail.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-46258720

    Can someone explain how renationalisation is supposed to 'fix' the network, when it is the nationalised part that is routinely failing the public?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,839
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Don’t think that follows. They aren’t just going to see it as a single issue vote on the deal - they have to take into account what commitments she could make on the future relationship, extending the transition etc etc if she had a year free from challenge.

    Without the 12 month limitation I would agree with you that the VONC is nothing more than a proxy vote on the deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single question. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which one question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    I think two rounds are the path of least resistance, because:
    1) Using a better voting system legitimizes better voting systems, which some people in Britain oppose
    2) The losing side (especially if it's Leave) will try to make out that the vote was some kind of trick (you may recall the whole "does AV let you vote twice" argument that filled the comments here for weeks), and it's harder to make up theories about a separate vote.

    It would cost a little bit more, but I imagine there are economies of scale.
    Yes two rounds under FPTP would be best.

    May can sell her Deal in round 1 and if it wins in round 2 too.

    If No Deal wins she can leave No Dealers to scrap with Remainers and stay above the fray promising to implement either in round 2
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,863

    Off-topic:

    Chaos in south London this morning after all services into Waterloo cancelled due to overrunning works by the nationalised Network Rail.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-46258720

    Can someone explain how renationalisation is supposed to 'fix' the network, when it is the nationalised part that is routinely failing the public?

    To be fair, this is first major **** up on Wessex since 11 December 2017. Just annoying that they didn't know they were going to overrun last night as I could have stayed in bed this morning.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,928
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    2 part ballot

    1st part Deal yes or no If yes wins no second ballot needed.

    If the result is no to the deal then there is a second ballot which is simple, Leave (no Deal) or Remain.
    (I would prefer remain with Euro, Schengen etc as our semi detached current membership is designed to maintain long term conflict and division with the core EU).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Don’t think that follows. They aren’t just going to see it as a single issue vote on the deal - they have to take into account what commitments she could make on the future relationship, extending the transition etc etc if she had a year free from challenge.

    Without the 12 month limitation I would agree with you that the VONC is nothing more than a proxy vote on the deal.
    If you back the Deal you back May and most Tory MPs do and that includes on the extra year transition if needed which is already included
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,659

    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    He thinks it's a just short step from the occupants of the Torquay Conservative Club bar of a late night weekend (about 7pm in Torquay) to "virtually everybody".
    Except, I don't drink.....
    You don't? I suggest you start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    edited November 2018
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    2 part ballot

    1st part Deal yes or no

    If the result is no to the deal second ballot is simple Leave (no Deal) or Remain
    (I would prefer remain with Euro, Schengen etc as our semi detached current membership is designed to maintain long term conflict and division with the core EU).
    Rejoin with Euro Schengen has no chance. I voted Remain and back May's Deal but even I would vote for No Deal over that.
  • HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Assuming voting for May's deal implies voting for May. Probably 199 of that 200 are like the rest of us -- we haven't a clue how to go about Brexit so are praying this deal makes the best of a bad job.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,957
    edited November 2018
    Foxy said:



    Having seen some dodgy locums, who I wouldn't trust to cut their own toenails, I agree!

    Fake doctors are absolutely rife in Russia as, in the heady days of the noughties, you could just buy whatever qualifications you wanted. My wife once bought me a Grade 10 Classical Piano qualification for my birthday when we lived there. I can't play a note but have proudly hung it on my office wall.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,928
    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    2 part ballot

    1st part Deal yes or no

    If the result is no to the deal second ballot is simple Leave (no Deal) or Remain
    (I would prefer remain with Euro, Schengen etc as our semi detached current membership is designed to maintain long term conflict and division with the core EU).
    Rejoin with Euro Schengen has no chance. I voted Remain and back May's Deal but even I would vote for No Deal over that.
    I know we are all scared of full membership. Our half in half out rebate obsessed 2nd class membership is absolutely stupid. Either go in and commit or leave. I know full membership wouldn't be an option, but it is the only sensible remain choice.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,928

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Assuming voting for May's deal implies voting for May. Probably 199 of that 200 are like the rest of us -- we haven't a clue how to go about Brexit so are praying this deal makes the best of a bad job.
    The other issue if there is a VONC that I haven't heard asked is this:
    Do you want May or someone else to be in charge of negotiations for the next period (Future relationship, FTA etc)?
  • A plan by a group of Brexiteer cabinet ministers to try to force a change in policy on the prime minister appeared to be breaking down. Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is understood not to be planning to attend a meeting scheduled for this morning to discuss tactics. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has also distanced himself from the plan.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don-t-hunt-may-like-thatcher-tories-told-by-andrew-mitchell-8snhj6slf

    Any plan which depends on Michael Gove not reneging five minutes later is doomed to failure. Ask Boris.
  • philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    2 part ballot

    1st part Deal yes or no

    If the result is no to the deal second ballot is simple Leave (no Deal) or Remain
    (I would prefer remain with Euro, Schengen etc as our semi detached current membership is designed to maintain long term conflict and division with the core EU).
    Rejoin with Euro Schengen has no chance. I voted Remain and back May's Deal but even I would vote for No Deal over that.
    I know we are all scared of full membership. Our half in half out rebate obsessed 2nd class membership is absolutely stupid. Either go in and commit or leave. I know full membership wouldn't be an option, but it is the only sensible remain choice.
    It really isn't.

    If the desire for a 'full=brexit' proves to be the Brexiteers undoing, then the desire for a 'full-remain' would be the remainers.

    We are not going for vote for the Euro, and certainly not for Schelgen, and they would be idiotic to push for that.
  • HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    Foxy said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Depends what time and day Brady checks his pigeonhole.
    And there is no audit process. Who knows if Brady did not get one or two sent in the post?
    Even if the magic number of 48 is eventually reached, the wind has gone out of any rebellion and I would expect May to win a VoC by a country mile. With respect to the Deal, I suspect that May actually wants there to be close economic ties to the EU in the long-term, so is quite happy with it and doesn't see the flaws for what they are. However, she could well be brought down if the Deal is rejected by a substantial margin in the HoC.
    I think that is premature. The reason why the ERG has gone for VONC now is because they are banking on a similar polling reaction to what happened with Chequers to scare the vast majority of Conservative MPs who just care for their jobs that May is about to lead them to electoral oblivion. So the polls over the weekend would have suited them very nicely. It creates a sense of panic and a feeling that something must be done.

    Now, TSE and others will tell you that we should all calm down, that the polling returned to normal after a few weeks and that everything is fine. The difference now is the news cycle. Chequers was published right in the middle of the World Cup and just before the hysteria about England winning the World Cup reached its peak. It was therefore subsumed by the other news (remember The Sun telling the politicians not to ruin the World Cup).

    Now, there is no comparable news event to "hide" things. Up to Christmas, it will be all about Brexit. The ERG will be there explaining why the deal is so bad and, in likelihood, create the view that TM has sold out - which will hit the Conservatives in the polls and so feed the argument that TM must be replaced. It actually isn't a bad strategy from the ERG's standpoint.

    The Tories still on 36% is not 'electoral oblivion' it would still give them more seats than Corbyn has now and match the voteshare Cameron got.

    Still plenty of time for Kipper protest voters to finish their tantrum when faced with the prospect of PM Corbyn as well as was the case post Chequers Deal
    Assuming they stay on 36%. A few weeks of continual debate over how TM has sold out over Brexit plus the less than helpful comments we are likely to get from members of the EU over the UK having to suck it up may change that 36%
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,813

    Assuming they stay on 36%. A few weeks of continual debate over how TM has sold out over Brexit plus the less than helpful comments we are likely to get from members of the EU over the UK having to suck it up may change that 36%

    Maybe. All the palaver didn't hurt Jezza, though.

    I'm not sure if Jezza saying he would renegotiate a new deal is good or bad and for whom. On balance, it is bad for May. Because in the face of Tezza saying this is it, vs the fatuous five and others saying we can negotiate a better deal, she now has a sort of consensus (!!) emerging that there is a better deal out there and she didn't get it.

    Whether this is what Jezza planned, though, goodness only knows. He continues, however, to play the whole Brexit thing well.
  • HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Don’t think that follows. They aren’t just going to see it as a single issue vote on the deal - they have to take into account what commitments she could make on the future relationship, extending the transition etc etc if she had a year free from challenge.

    Without the 12 month limitation I would agree with you that the VONC is nothing more than a proxy vote on the deal.
    If you back the Deal you back May and most Tory MPs do and that includes on the extra year transition if needed which is already included
    That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 20,813

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    ....and that puts further pressure on May, as now virtually everybody is saying they would have got a better deal than she has achieved. Whether true or not, it becomes the norm: May has failed to deliver Brexit.
    You continue to live in a world of total self-delusion and are happy to spout lies and hyperbole to sustain it. The polling I showed you yesterday showed clearly that the public prefer may to any alternative leader left or right to negotiate the Brexit process. Needless to say you failed to respond to real evidence.
    The number of people prepared to stick their head above the parapet and say May got an adequate deal are not enough to save her. I don't know who replaces her - but once the number of letters reaches critical mass this week, somebody will.
    The rebels are about 80 to 90, May will survive
    I don’t see that she will if it makes it that far. Her inflexibility and refusal to change course (although a strength in some ways) means that the risk of being unable to remove her for 12 months is too great to accept. Most sensible Tory MPs want to keep the leadership challenge in reserve for that reason, but I think that if forced to vote knowing that they have no more power until late 2019/early 2020 they will reluctantly accept they have no choice but to vote against.
    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year
    Don’t think that follows. They aren’t just going to see it as a single issue vote on the deal - they have to take into account what commitments she could make on the future relationship, extending the transition etc etc if she had a year free from challenge.

    Without the 12 month limitation I would agree with you that the VONC is nothing more than a proxy vote on the deal.
    If you back the Deal you back May and most Tory MPs do and that includes on the extra year transition if needed which is already included
    That is certainly not true. I back the deal because the alternative of Remain is far worse. But would vote to get rid of May at the very first opportunity. As has already been mentioned, given she made such an utter balls up of the WA, why should we want her to continue to negotiate the full future arrangement. She needs to go as soon as possible.
    And be replaced by who?
  • TOPPING said:


    And be replaced by who?

    Personally I would prefer Javid or Gove or practically anyone not being influenced by Olly Robbins. May has been a disaster in just about every role she has ever held in Government. Right now I would prefer Corbyn running things to May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html
  • A plan by a group of Brexiteer cabinet ministers to try to force a change in policy on the prime minister appeared to be breaking down. Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, is understood not to be planning to attend a meeting scheduled for this morning to discuss tactics. Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has also distanced himself from the plan.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don-t-hunt-may-like-thatcher-tories-told-by-andrew-mitchell-8snhj6slf

    Any plan which depends on Michael Gove not reneging five minutes later is doomed to failure. Ask Boris.
    Once again, it will turn out that these five, or any other Brexiteers for that matter, cannot come up with anything better, other than No Deal chaos.

    What a mess.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 5,450
    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    The delicious momentum is building!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,871
    HYUFD said:


    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year

    A lot of Conservative MPs said they were going to vote for Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and her campaign team thought she would see off Heseltine easily but that's not happened.

    A number of Conservative MPs have apparently sent in letters of No Confidence, or have they?

    I recognise you have to be an ultra-loyalist but, please, if you are going to believe anything a Conservative MP says you may as well start looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

    Indeed, that's the trouble with loyalty - it often obscures what people are really thinking and the confine of the secret ballot means MPs can say what they really think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    No they won't. Given over 200 Tory MPs have already said they will vote for May's Deal that ensures she wins at least 65% to 35% and is safe for a year

    A lot of Conservative MPs said they were going to vote for Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and her campaign team thought she would see off Heseltine easily but that's not happened.

    A number of Conservative MPs have apparently sent in letters of No Confidence, or have they?

    I recognise you have to be an ultra-loyalist but, please, if you are going to believe anything a Conservative MP says you may as well start looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

    Indeed, that's the trouble with loyalty - it often obscures what people are really thinking and the confine of the secret ballot means MPs can say what they really think.
    I am sorry but fanatics like you make up a third of Tory MPs at most.

    No Deal would be worse than the Poll Tax for Tory fortunes
  • HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 64,060
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting suggestion from one panelist on Good Morning Britain for a 2 part EU ref2.

    The first question would be a straight Deal v No Deal question.

    The second question would put Remain against both May's Deal and No Deal with the Leave option which won the first question being the Leave answer in the second question

    Is that conducted as a single vote (ie q2 is ‘Not knowing whether deal or no deal is the alternative, do you prefer to remain, or take which ever outcome won q1?) or two separate voting occasions?
    On his argument a single vote. Question 2 would be 2 part or 'Remain v Deal' and 'Remain v No Deal' with only the part which won question one from the Leave options actually used.

    Alternatively yes it could be French style second ballot. First ballot Leave with Deal v Leave with No Deal.

    Then a fortnight later the winner of that v Remain. That would be simpler too
    2 part ballot

    1st part Deal yes or no

    If the result is no to the deal second ballot is simple Leave (no Deal) or Remain
    (I would prefer remain with Euro, Schengen etc as our semi detached current membership is designed to maintain long term conflict and division with the core EU).
    Rejoin with Euro Schengen has no chance. I voted Remain and back May's Deal but even I would vote for No Deal over that.
    I know we are all scared of full membership. Our half in half out rebate obsessed 2nd class membership is absolutely stupid. Either go in and commit or leave. I know full membership wouldn't be an option, but it is the only sensible remain choice.
    Rubbish. Otherwise Poland, Sweden and Denmark would have to leave the EU too
This discussion has been closed.