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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10.

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Comments

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 222
    Thirst
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,850
    Interesting. My preferences are [almost] in reverse order to that chart: Gove then Hunt, then JRM and The Blond Tosser as joint last.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 222
    Seriousy - while we can all agree TM is useless..just look at the alternatives! I never thought I woukd seriously advocate a military coup but it is the only eay I can see out of this mess!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,246
    edited November 2018
    Hunt’s ratings will soar today if he brings home Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe from Iran.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    Penddu said:

    Seriousy - while we can all agree TM is useless..just look at the alternatives! I never thought I woukd seriously advocate a military coup but it is the only eay I can see out of this mess!

    Seriously? A military coup? Rapidly followed by civil war as Momentum take to the streets.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,965

    Penddu said:

    Seriousy - while we can all agree TM is useless..just look at the alternatives! I never thought I woukd seriously advocate a military coup but it is the only eay I can see out of this mess!

    Seriously? A military coup? Rapidly followed by civil war as Momentum take to the streets.
    Momentum have important grad jobs on 60k in the city to attend. They wont be taking to the streets.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,671
    Yawn, still not up to 48 letters. The ERG need to put up or shut up.
  • Penddu said:

    Seriousy - while we can all agree TM is useless..just look at the alternatives! I never thought I woukd seriously advocate a military coup but it is the only eay I can see out of this mess!

    A directly elected dictator is the solution to this country’s problems.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,240
    To be fair, HYUFD has banged on about this for months and we all know it. Every other potential Conservative leadership candidate polls worse than May except Boris who the MPs themselves won't choose.

    What did for Thatcher in 1990 were the polls showing a 10% deficit to Labour with her as Prime Minister wiped out by Heseltine becoming PM. For backbenchers in marginal seats with a strong sense of self-preservation, Heseltine was hope and they voted for him.

    When polls came along showing Major doing as well as Heseltine and Major got Thatcher's endorsement the deal was done.

    The Conservatives are currently polling just behind Labour and there's no evidence any other leader would be doing any better and many would be doing significantly worse. Irrespective of whether it's Corbyn or a more acceptable centrist as LOTO, the MP in his or her marginal seat will conclude, I suspect, that for now (and that's key) May should remain in charge.

    IF the Deal falls in Parliament and she quits, it would be different.

    IF the Conservatives take a beating at the 2019 local elections, pressure from the grassroots activists for a change might well start building - another big part of 1990 were poor local election results and the Eastbourne by-election defeat.
  • Motorsport: didn't post about this before deliberately, but it seems Sophia Floersch*, German racing driver, is going to be ok. She had an absolutely massive crash in Macau. Suspect raised kerbs might become a thing of the past.

    *No 'e', really, but when an umlaut is omitted it seems adding one is the done thing.
  • AndyJS said:
    Is he the one that thought all Brits were entitled to Irish citizenship?

  • AndyJS said:
    Is he the one that thought all Brits were entitled to Irish citizenship?

    Yup.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520

    Hunt’s ratings will soar today if he brings home Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe from Iran.

    I have topped up on Rat Eyes as next tory leader.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    edited November 2018
    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    AndyJS said:
    One or two of the more sensible letter writers (I know, I know) must be tempted to call Brady and ask him to quietly shred their letter whenever Bridgen gets on the airwaves.
  • AndyJS said:
    Is he the one that thought all Brits were entitled to Irish citizenship?

    Yep.

    And also a well known believer in the existence of unicorns.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    HYUFD said:

    Nicky Morgan says if May's Deal is voted down she and many other Tory MPs will switch to backing a second EU referendum

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/11/nicky-morgan-if-arch-brexiteers-sink-this-deal-they-will-drive-many-of-us-to-back-a-second-referendum.html

    Good on her...and probably at least another tory 100 MPs as well.

    The Brexit project is hanging by a thread. Push May out, and you may lose it altogether
    I have been saying that for a long time

    Last night 18 labour mps were named who will not support a second referedum

    If so do they support the deal as I cannot see them supporting no deal
    The answer is no they won't. Why would they, the deal won't pass anyway non point getting deselected over it.

    May needs to survive to a vote in the commons on the deal. I want to know for sure what each have every mp thinks and is prepared to risk on this. They can justify anything they choose then.
    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Obviously you cannot. When it comes to votes and thresholds it makes no sense. If a quorum is a quarter of 15 you need 4 as 3 hasn't reached 3.75.
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Well, well, Sunday night...

    Still not 48 letters.

    I suppose it could all kick off tomorrow afternoon when MPs get back to Westminster.

    Think tomorrow is THE day.

    If they don't get 48 letters tomorrow ERG is indeed all piss and wind!

    We shall see....
    My guess is Baker and Mogg have been led up the garden path by MPs who talk a good rebellion in the Red Lion after 4 pints, but don't actually write any letters.

    We shall see tomorrow.
    That would be divine justice for the people who led the country up the garden path by spouting tosh from the saloon bar but didn't actually have any plan.
    They have some plans now. It's just a bit er hopeful.

    And the divine justice is that we may well remain now because of them.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    Vince Cable sounded like he was in fantasy land this morning on the radio when he was quizzed as to how precisely the "People's vote" would come about in parliament if/when May's deal was voted down.
  • Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
  • MaxPB said:

    Yawn, still not up to 48 letters. The ERG need to put up or shut up.

    Yep. Looks like another morning of 'we are nearly there', 'we have 46', 'privately, I've been told we already have the 48' etc etc.

    If it has taken them 5 days to not even get to 48, how on earth do they think they will get the 150 or whatever votes they need to bring her down?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    Motorsport: didn't post about this before deliberately, but it seems Sophia Floersch*, German racing driver, is going to be ok. She had an absolutely massive crash in Macau. Suspect raised kerbs might become a thing of the past.

    *No 'e', really, but when an umlaut is omitted it seems adding one is the done thing.

    Truly amazing she is even alive. Miraculous she is OK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    How do we know he knows it better than anyone? If the deal is bad, and even now the gutless five of the cabinet don't back it, why would someone else unify people around it?

    He didn't even make the long list on the front of the digital I.

    On the other hand I get a decent payout if he is next Tory leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Vince Cable sounded like he was in fantasy land this morning on the radio when he was quizzed as to how precisely the "People's vote" would come about in parliament if/when May's deal was voted down.

    Parliament negotiating directly with Brussels and a snap GE straight after the vote, but if not that definitely a "people's vote" between the deal and no brexit. For sure, really the Gov't is going to go for that even though most Tories and the Gov't are opposed
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,520

    Motorsport: didn't post about this before deliberately, but it seems Sophia Floersch*, German racing driver, is going to be ok. She had an absolutely massive crash in Macau. Suspect raised kerbs might become a thing of the past.

    *No 'e', really, but when an umlaut is omitted it seems adding one is the done thing.

    It was written as an e before it was ever two dots but it doesn't indicate an elided 'e' as the accent circonflexe does with the letter 's' in French.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Dura_Ace said:

    Hunt’s ratings will soar today if he brings home Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe from Iran.

    I have topped up on Rat Eyes as next tory leader.
    As someone who's had the nickname ratface at school, I object to such name calling sir! :)
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.
  • Mr. Mark, Penny Mordaunt should succeed May. This would clearly be in the national interest.

    On Floersch: should've been more precise, she said she was 'fine' but also 'going into surgery', so it sounds like she's injured but not in a life-changing/permanent way. Hope so, anyway. I avoided watching the video until I read that. It's a shade 1950s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    AndyJS said:
    I actually believe him for once. Took bloody long enough. The last letter was signed T May just to make it happen.
  • At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

  • IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    I can't in all honesty see what the ERG are playing at in tactical terms. The shenanigans over the threshold confirm that they could at best only just muster the numbers to get close to the threshold, whatever it is. So it is also clear that there is a real risk to them of May' surviving a confidence vote at which point she becomes unchallengeable. She can then pack the Cabinet with remainers to ensure she gets her way. Look forward to her announcing a 2nd referendum when her deal inevitably gets voted down, safe in the knowledge that there is diddly squat that any of her MPs can do to stop the vote going before parliament and being passed with support from most of the PLP.

    Fabricant's position is the much more rational one for Brexiteers. He is waiting for her to first lose her parliamentary vote on the deal. She will then have to either commit to no deal (allied to possible renegotiation) or a 2nd referendum. Fabricant says that he will only send in a letter if she fails to do the former and I suspect that there are many other Brexiteer MPs who take the same position. Just look at the names of ardent critics of May who have so far failed to own up to writing a letter. So there will be certainly be a leadership contest by mid December and it would take place in the most unfavourable circumstances possible for May.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/18/michael-fabricant-mpwhy-wont-writing-letter-chairman-1922/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    Scott_P said:
    I'd have thought water cannons might be useful to keep around should there be the potential for civil unrest in the future.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    MaxPB said:

    Yawn, still not up to 48 letters. The ERG need to put up or shut up.

    And everybody is fixated on the number of letters. Have been for days. Meanwhile, people aren't listening to the PM, as she tries to convince of the merits of her deal....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,893
    Scott_P said:
    Too bad, they could come have come in useful if it all kicks off over Brexit.


  • If it has taken them 5 days to not even get to 48, how on earth do they think they will get the 150 or whatever votes they need to bring her down?

    Quite. And so why on earth do they want to force a vote that will only strengthen her?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    edited November 2018

    IanB2 said:

    So is it 48 letters or isn't it. When will be know>?

    It's actually 47 letters required....
    I would have thought that if you needed at least 15% of a group of people to do something and the calculation comes out as a fraction, you need to round up. If you round down you don't actually have 15%.
    Indeed.

    I can't in all honesty see what the ERG are playing at in tactical terms. The shenanigans over the threshold confirm that they could at best only just muster the numbers to get close to the threshold, whatever it is. So it is also clear that there is a real risk to them of May' surviving a confidence vote at which point she becomes unchallengeable. She can then pack the Cabinet with remainers to ensure she gets her way. Look forward to her announcing a 2nd referendum when her deal inevitably gets voted down, safe in the knowledge that there is diddly squat that any of her MPs can do to stop the vote going before parliament and being passed with support from most of the PLP.

    Fabricant's position is the much more rational one for Brexiteers. He is waiting for her to first lose her parliamentary vote on the deal. She will then have to either commit to no deal (allied to possible renegotiation) or a 2nd referendum. Fabricant says that he will only send in a letter if she fails to do the former and I suspect that there are many other Brexiteer MPs who take the same position. Just look at the names of ardent critics of May who have so far failed to own up to writing a letter. So there will be certainly be a leadership contest by mid December and it would take place in the most unfavourable circumstances possible for May.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/18/michael-fabricant-mpwhy-wont-writing-letter-chairman-1922/
    I think she'll do the former (Commit to no deal), and then have a second vote in the house. Force the latent remainers hand.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,893

    MaxPB said:

    Yawn, still not up to 48 letters. The ERG need to put up or shut up.

    And everybody is fixated on the number of letters. Have been for days. Meanwhile, people aren't listening to the PM, as she tries to convince of the merits of her deal....
    I'm not sure they're smart enough to do this, but it is a bit like a team running the ball into the corner at the end of a football match.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

    Bikes "that no-one uses"? Pillock!

    Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,815
    Scott_P said:
    That's so cheap I get the suspicion that they've gone for the lowest bidder.

    There's a very hot market in second-hand kit, and has been for decades. Just a working, running chassis of a large vehicle should be worth more than that IMLE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    New leaders get a chance to reinvent their images, as indeed May did for a time as both a hard Brexiteer (ha) and massively popular.

    But to pull that off they need, I would think, to take over at such a time they can change direction from their predecessor decisively in style and approach, and carry the party with them. The contenders don't have that opportunity if the change is now. They can try to change things, indeed that is the reason for a challenge, but there won't be unity for a new leader to be able to project strength and new vision. So their negatives likely remain.

    Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
    Being serious though, do you think he would be a good choice even without that reason?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384

    Scott_P said:
    That's so cheap I get the suspicion that they've gone for the lowest bidder.

    There's a very hot market in second-hand kit, and has been for decades. Just a working, running chassis of a large vehicle should be worth more than that IMLE.
    Err yes this looks like a very expensive way to embarass Boris.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    MaxPB said:

    Yawn, still not up to 48 letters. The ERG need to put up or shut up.

    Yep. Looks like another morning of 'we are nearly there', 'we have 46', 'privately, I've been told we already have the 48' etc etc.

    If it has taken them 5 days to not even get to 48, how on earth do they think they will get the 150 or whatever votes they need to bring her down?
    They might not. It could be to demonstrate to all the numbers implacably opposed. The deal still wont pass and I can see May going then even if a challenge is survived and the ERG will have shown the next leader how much renegotiation they need to win from Brussels.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's so cheap I get the suspicion that they've gone for the lowest bidder.

    There's a very hot market in second-hand kit, and has been for decades. Just a working, running chassis of a large vehicle should be worth more than that IMLE.
    Err yes this looks like a very expensive way to embarass Boris.
    I think they must have been sold on a "scrap only" basis, i.e. we actively forbade anyone retaining them as dangerous vehicles
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's so cheap I get the suspicion that they've gone for the lowest bidder.

    There's a very hot market in second-hand kit, and has been for decades. Just a working, running chassis of a large vehicle should be worth more than that IMLE.
    Err yes this looks like a very expensive way to embarass Boris.
    Its the headline hunter Khan again, that is a daft price for that equipment
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,041
    kle4 said:

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
    Being serious though, do you think he would be a good choice even without that reason?
    He is as thick , devious and useless as the rest of them.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,483
    FPT, on the £39b - thanks for the answers. It is still as clear as mud to me.

    - TheWhiteRabbit, is it £39b or €39b? Our annual net contribution to the EU budget is £8.6b taking "rebates" into account, so 2 years of transition would account for ~£17b. Is that part of the £39b or is it on top of that?

    - Big_G_NorthWales, is it over 45 years because of pensions to UK eurocrats and officials?

    - Richard_Tyndall, if the "real obligation" is between £5b and £10b, does that mean we are paying between £29b and £34b to ensure the EU plays nicely as we leave so as to minimise disruption? Also, if we leave without a deal how much of the £39b are we still obliged to pay?
  • kle4 said:

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
    Being serious though, do you think he would be a good choice even without that reason?
    Yes. He’s tough as boots.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    As of today May has overtaken Campbell-Bannerman in the longest reigning pm list. Not sure she'll make the 3.5 months needed to reach the next on the list.

    Though I guess only 3 months is needed, rounding down, if you are the ERG.
  • Scott_P said:
    Barnier has put 2022 into the treaty. 2024 is just wrong
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    Scott_P said:
    Barnier has put 2022 into the treaty. 2024 is just wrong
    2024 is the action of a Remainer.....determined to never Leave.

    The sooner that idiot is booted from Cabinet by a new PM, the better.
  • Scott_P said:
    Barnier has put 2022 into the treaty. 2024 is just wrong
    Mogg has already exploded and led the charge over the top.

    Seems though, his platoon is a little smaller than he thought.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    kle4 said:

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
    Being serious though, do you think he would be a good choice even without that reason?
    Yes. He’s tough as boots.
    Many boots are not very tough. Citation the 'boots theory of socio economic unfairness' of one Samuel Vimes.

    I don't see how he gets it though. Not tough enough to quit, not tough enough to put some effort in backing the deal. I know he has the day job but come on.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,815
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's so cheap I get the suspicion that they've gone for the lowest bidder.

    There's a very hot market in second-hand kit, and has been for decades. Just a working, running chassis of a large vehicle should be worth more than that IMLE.
    Err yes this looks like a very expensive way to embarass Boris.
    A quick look at this indicates it might be the following:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasserwerfer_9000

    And some German authorities use them for firefighting. I cannot believe that's all they're worth second-hand.

    As an aside, my dad used to know an Irishman who made an absolute killing buying second-hand emergency vehicles (e.g. ambulances, fire engines), refurbishing them, simplifying them, and then selling them to third-world countries.

    He was often at Telford Auctions, dressed shabbily despite being a multi-millionaire.
  • kle4 said:

    New leaders get a chance to reinvent their images, as indeed May did for a time as both a hard Brexiteer (ha) and massively popular.

    But to pull that off they need, I would think, to take over at such a time they can change direction from their predecessor decisively in style and approach, and carry the party with them. The contenders don't have that opportunity if the change is now. They can try to change things, indeed that is the reason for a challenge, but there won't be unity for a new leader to be able to project strength and new vision. So their negatives likely remain.

    Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?

    There is more to life than Brexit and most Conservative MPs (who form the electorate for next leader) will be hoping for a return to politics as normal, so getting on with the day job makes sense for Javid and Hunt but they need a big success, and I've just realised I'm outlining the plot of Yes Minister where Jim Hacker becomes PM on the back of the Eurosausage. Hmm.

    Hunt needs Iran to hand over prisoners, and perhaps that needs Iran to want the next British prime minister owing them a favour, so it is not out of the question, though Hunt's "warnings" in the Sundays probably will not help.

    For Javid, a national strategy on gangs, perhaps. He started well but it's gone quiet recently.

    So follow Sir Humphrey's advice -- express no opinion on anything and find a Eurosausage.
  • At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

    Bikes "that no-one uses"? Pillock!

    Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.

    London’s government-funded Boris bike hire scheme has cost taxpayers nearly £200 million over the last eight years, according to a disclosure made to Verdict under the UK Freedom of Information (FoI) Act.
    The total net government expenditure on the scheme so far is £195 million – which works out at around £17,000 for each of the 11,500 hire bikes currently in circulation.
    https://www.verdict.co.uk/londons-boris-bikes-scheme-has-cost-taxpayers-nearly-200m-foi-disclosure-reveals/

    A triumph.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
    Being serious though, do you think he would be a good choice even without that reason?
    He is as thick , devious and useless as the rest of them.
    The second may be an advantage in this contest.

    So might the first come to think of it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    edited November 2018

    kle4 said:

    Let's have a sensible MP from Devon. A Brexiteer. 20,000 majority. Someone who knows the ins and outs of the current Brexit Deal better than May. Respected by Cabinet to tell it how it is. Loved by Conference this year. A true unity candidate.

    Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.

    (And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)

    Jeremy Hunt for me.

    I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
    Being serious though, do you think he would be a good choice even without that reason?
    Yes. He’s tough as boots.
    He would, importantly, win. My Labour supporting good as MiL who is a retired Doctor thinks he's one of the sensible ones - and just listen to all the noise Labour has been making on the NHS recently; it's like one of those tree falling in the forest questions.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,676

    MaxPB said:

    Yawn, still not up to 48 letters. The ERG need to put up or shut up.

    And everybody is fixated on the number of letters. Have been for days. Meanwhile, people aren't listening to the PM, as she tries to convince of the merits of her deal....
    I heard the merits of the deal described as equivalent to the surrender terms offered to the losing side in a war.

    The ERG MP really was not holding back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Scott_P said:
    I'd tend to agree with them on quoting people. I'd apply that to general 'offensive' commentary even without vulgarity, since oftentimes I cannot tell how mad I am supposed to be because I'm not sure what is supposed to have been said.

    I recall a link to the Sunday sport editor I believe on which words get censored or not.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,651

    At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.
    Last time I tried to get a Boris Bike from Paddington I had to walk 15 minutes before finding one. Then when it came to finding one in the West End of an evening I simply couldn’t. They may be supplanted by dockless bikes one day, but not yet.
  • We should also throw Johnson's triumphant London Stadium deal with West Ham into the mix, too, I guess.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-olympic-stadium-sadiq-khan-west-ham-united-a8087441.html

    There is a pattern here, isn't there?

    Still, he was a magnificent foreign secretary. Just ask Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.

    He is clearly brilliantly equipped to go back to Brussels to negotiate the deal with the EU that Theresa May was too craven and weak to get.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    edited November 2018

    kle4 said:

    New leaders get a chance to reinvent their images, as indeed May did for a time as both a hard Brexiteer (ha) and massively popular.

    But to pull that off they need, I would think, to take over at such a time they can change direction from their predecessor decisively in style and approach, and carry the party with them. The contenders don't have that opportunity if the change is now. They can try to change things, indeed that is the reason for a challenge, but there won't be unity for a new leader to be able to project strength and new vision. So their negatives likely remain.

    Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?

    There is more to life than Brexit and most Conservative MPs (who form the electorate for next leader) will be hoping for a return to politics as normal, so getting on with the day job makes sense for Javid and Hunt but they need a big success, and I've just realised I'm outlining the plot of Yes Minister where Jim Hacker becomes PM on the back of the Eurosausage. Hmm.

    Hunt needs Iran to hand over prisoners, and perhaps that needs Iran to want the next British prime minister owing them a favour, so it is not out of the question, though Hunt's "warnings" in the Sundays probably will not help.

    For Javid, a national strategy on gangs, perhaps. He started well but it's gone quiet recently.

    So follow Sir Humphrey's advice -- express no opinion on anything and find a Eurosausage.
    The 'more to life than brexit' only works if they take over after things are agreed. May might go even jf she survives the vote of no confidence if her deal falls and what they think and plan to do will be critical. They are reported to be planning their leadership pitches for a takeover now, so they do havethings to say on what to do now, they just appear scared to publicly do so.

    Not sure where they'll find a eurosausage out of this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,815

    At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

    Bikes "that no-one uses"? Pillock!

    Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.

    London’s government-funded Boris bike hire scheme has cost taxpayers nearly £200 million over the last eight years, according to a disclosure made to Verdict under the UK Freedom of Information (FoI) Act.
    The total net government expenditure on the scheme so far is £195 million – which works out at around £17,000 for each of the 11,500 hire bikes currently in circulation.
    https://www.verdict.co.uk/londons-boris-bikes-scheme-has-cost-taxpayers-nearly-200m-foi-disclosure-reveals/

    A triumph.

    Hold on, weren't Labourites keen to credit Ken for the scheme, which Boris 'stole'?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
  • Scott_P said:
    Barnier has put 2022 into the treaty. 2024 is just wrong
    2024 is the action of a Remainer.....determined to never Leave.

    The sooner that idiot is booted from Cabinet by a new PM, the better.

    kle4 said:

    New leaders get a chance to reinvent their images, as indeed May did for a time as both a hard Brexiteer (ha) and massively popular.

    But to pull that off they need, I would think, to take over at such a time they can change direction from their predecessor decisively in style and approach, and carry the party with them. The contenders don't have that opportunity if the change is now. They can try to change things, indeed that is the reason for a challenge, but there won't be unity for a new leader to be able to project strength and new vision. So their negatives likely remain.

    Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?

    A game a bit like that which May played during the referendum, basically keeping as quiet as possible rather than go out of a limb to support the PM, in order to subsequently wear the mantle of a unity candidate.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Can someone explain what exactly is so bad about a no-deal Brexit?
    Is it because we've not prepared for it? Or some other reason?
    Do we have time to prepare or is it too late?


  • Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?

    A game a bit like that which May played during the referendum, basically keeping as quiet as possible rather than go out of a limb to support the PM, in order to subsequently wear the mantle of a unity candidate.

    [SORRY FOR PREVIOUS POST, GOT MY BLOCKQUOTES MIXED UP!]
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Scott_P said:
    Odd that they think their plan with not enough support is ok to push but it's delusional of may to push a plan with not enough support.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,454
    The ERG trying to count up to 48...

    image


  • Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?

    A game a bit like that which May played during the referendum, basically keeping as quiet as possible rather than go out of a limb to support the PM, in order to subsequently wear the mantle of a unity candidate.

    [SORRY FOR PREVIOUS POST, GOT MY BLOCKQUOTES MIXED UP!]
    I didn't quote the above
  • Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609



    Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?

    A game a bit like that which May played during the referendum, basically keeping as quiet as possible rather than go out of a limb to support the PM, in order to subsequently wear the mantle of a unity candidate.

    Indeed. Worked then, I'm not sure that it would now since the cabinet were given permission to hold different views for the ref, whereas now you would reasonably think if they are in they back the deal. Though this shower are testing that.
  • At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

    Bikes "that no-one uses"? Pillock!

    Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.

    London’s government-funded Boris bike hire scheme has cost taxpayers nearly £200 million over the last eight years, according to a disclosure made to Verdict under the UK Freedom of Information (FoI) Act.
    The total net government expenditure on the scheme so far is £195 million – which works out at around £17,000 for each of the 11,500 hire bikes currently in circulation.
    https://www.verdict.co.uk/londons-boris-bikes-scheme-has-cost-taxpayers-nearly-200m-foi-disclosure-reveals/

    A triumph.

    Hold on, weren't Labourites keen to credit Ken for the scheme, which Boris 'stole'?

    I am sure they were. But aren't Tories supposed to be careful with taxpayers' money?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,344

    At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

    Bikes "that no-one uses"? Pillock!

    Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.

    London’s government-funded Boris bike hire scheme has cost taxpayers nearly £200 million over the last eight years, according to a disclosure made to Verdict under the UK Freedom of Information (FoI) Act.
    The total net government expenditure on the scheme so far is £195 million – which works out at around £17,000 for each of the 11,500 hire bikes currently in circulation.
    https://www.verdict.co.uk/londons-boris-bikes-scheme-has-cost-taxpayers-nearly-200m-foi-disclosure-reveals/

    A triumph.

    Buses and the Tube are also subsidised, as are cars (via money spent building roads and so on). The question isn't whether Santander Cycles cost public money, it's whether they are a good investment or not of that money.
  • FPT, IIRC Robert Smithson said if there were No Deal, then our divorce will would be c.19bn euros, our share of the EU's net liabilities.

    The other 20 bn is essentially in return for the transition period.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,330
    Sean_Fear said:

    FPT, IIRC Robert Smithson said if there were No Deal, then our divorce will would be c.19bn euros, our share of the EU's net liabilities.

    The other 20 bn is essentially in return for the transition period.

    How much will that liability increase if we have an extra year or two of transition / implementation / negotiating time?
  • philiph said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    FPT, IIRC Robert Smithson said if there were No Deal, then our divorce will would be c.19bn euros, our share of the EU's net liabilities.

    The other 20 bn is essentially in return for the transition period.

    How much will that liability increase if we have an extra year or two of transition / implementation / negotiating time?
    10 billion a year
  • philiph said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    FPT, IIRC Robert Smithson said if there were No Deal, then our divorce will would be c.19bn euros, our share of the EU's net liabilities.

    The other 20 bn is essentially in return for the transition period.

    How much will that liability increase if we have an extra year or two of transition / implementation / negotiating time?
    It's hard to say at this stage.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Good old Theresa kicking the can down the road again... :D
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,483
    Sean_Fear said:

    FPT, IIRC Robert Smithson said if there were No Deal, then our divorce will would be c.19bn euros, our share of the EU's net liabilities.

    The other 20 bn is essentially in return for the transition period.

    Thanks.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Good old Theresa kicking the can down the road again... :D
    ERG were trying to say it was forever when it was 20XX - now it is 2022
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832

    GIN1138 said:

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Good old Theresa kicking the can down the road again... :D
    ERG were trying to say it was forever when it was 20XX - now it is 2022
    Then 2024, 2026, 2029, 2031, 2040,,, :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Good old Theresa kicking the can down the road again... :D
    Isn't this an option that can be unilaterally invoked by us rather than something that must take place though ?
    I mean I know in practice Corbyn or whoever will definitely take the can kicking route but it's an important distinction nevertheless.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    At last we now know what happened to ace negotiator Boris Johnson and his water cannon he bought second-hand off the Germans.
    Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.

    He also spent a shed-load on a bridge that will never be built, on a cable car that no-one uses and on bikes that no-one rides. He does speak some Latin, though, so he must be extraordinarily clever.

    Bikes "that no-one uses"? Pillock!

    Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.

    London’s government-funded Boris bike hire scheme has cost taxpayers nearly £200 million over the last eight years, according to a disclosure made to Verdict under the UK Freedom of Information (FoI) Act.
    The total net government expenditure on the scheme so far is £195 million – which works out at around £17,000 for each of the 11,500 hire bikes currently in circulation.
    https://www.verdict.co.uk/londons-boris-bikes-scheme-has-cost-taxpayers-nearly-200m-foi-disclosure-reveals/

    A triumph.

    A triumph of avoiding the fact that you said "no-one" uses them - when in fact they have been used for 73.5m journeys. At a subsidy of about £2.50 a journey. Is that a cost you think very poor value for money?
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Good old Theresa kicking the can down the road again... :D
    ERG were trying to say it was forever when it was 20XX - now it is 2022
    Then 2024, 2026, 2029, 2031, 2040,,, :D
    It is in the treaty for goodness sake
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Good old Theresa kicking the can down the road again... :D
    Isn't this an option that can be unilaterally invoked by us rather than something that must take place though ?
    I mean I know in practice Corbyn or whoever will definitely take the can kicking route but it's an important distinction nevertheless.
    Yes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    I can't help feeling that Thursday last week was the peak day for Brexit hysteria. Today the FTSE and Sterling are both recovering somewhat, the ERG are looking increasingly irrelevant as well as irrational, the cabinet rewrite is looking like a damp squib and R5 no less are debating whether May is dogged or deluded with the majority going for the former. By the end of the week we will have May going off to agree her deal, or something very, very like it with the EU who in turn will be progressing the necessary steps for their agreement.

    So is this over? Far from it. It is still very hard to make a case for how May gets this deal through Parliament. Until there is a viable path to this we seem somewhat stuck and the idea of a second referendum is likely to grow in strength. It is also concerning that it is May once again out in front seeking support for her deal with business today. Hammond, Hunt and Javid all still seem to have more important things to do. Is this at her insistence? If so, her cabinet should have overruled her.
  • DavidL said:

    I can't help feeling that Thursday last week was the peak day for Brexit hysteria. Today the FTSE and Sterling are both recovering somewhat, the ERG are looking increasingly irrelevant as well as irrational, the cabinet rewrite is looking like a damp squib and R5 no less are debating whether May is dogged or deluded with the majority going for the former. By the end of the week we will have May going off to agree her deal, or something very, very like it with the EU who in turn will be progressing the necessary steps for their agreement.

    So is this over? Far from it. It is still very hard to make a case for how May gets this deal through Parliament. Until there is a viable path to this we seem somewhat stuck and the idea of a second referendum is likely to grow in strength. It is also concerning that it is May once again out in front seeking support for her deal with business today. Hammond, Hunt and Javid all still seem to have more important things to do. Is this at her insistence? If so, her cabinet should have overruled her.

    Its almost as if every single prominent Tory is putting his/her career above all other considerations.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,676

    Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Bet its after GE 2022
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    DavidL said:

    I can't help feeling that Thursday last week was the peak day for Brexit hysteria. Today the FTSE and Sterling are both recovering somewhat, the ERG are looking increasingly irrelevant as well as irrational, the cabinet rewrite is looking like a damp squib and R5 no less are debating whether May is dogged or deluded with the majority going for the former. By the end of the week we will have May going off to agree her deal, or something very, very like it with the EU who in turn will be progressing the necessary steps for their agreement.

    So is this over? Far from it. It is still very hard to make a case for how May gets this deal through Parliament. Until there is a viable path to this we seem somewhat stuck and the idea of a second referendum is likely to grow in strength. It is also concerning that it is May once again out in front seeking support for her deal with business today. Hammond, Hunt and Javid all still seem to have more important things to do. Is this at her insistence? If so, her cabinet should have overruled her.

  • Twitter poll by Shadsy, would be great if this was a market:

  • Mark Stone, Sky, confirms the 2022 extension is now in the WDA

    Bet its after GE 2022
    It is in the treaty for goodness sake
This discussion has been closed.