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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of t

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10.

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    First!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,867
    edited November 2018
    Second like something not quite winning :)

    To be fair, HYUFD has banged on about this for months and we all know it. Every other potential Conservative leadership candidate polls worse than May except Boris who the MPs themselves won't choose.

    What did for Thatcher in 1990 were the polls showing a 10% deficit to Labour with her as Prime Minister wiped out by Heseltine becoming PM. For backbenchers in marginal seats with a strong sense of self-preservation, Heseltine was hope and they voted for him.

    When polls came along showing Major doing as well as Heseltine and Major got Thatcher's endorsement the deal was done.

    The Conservatives are currently polling just behind Labour and there's no evidence any other leader would be doing any better and many would be doing significantly worse. Irrespective of whether it's Corbyn or a more acceptable centrist as LOTO, the MP in his or her marginal seat will conclude, I suspect, that for now (and that's key) May should remain in charge.

    IF the Deal falls in Parliament and she quits, it would be different.

    IF the Conservatives take a beating at the 2019 local elections, pressure from the grassroots activists for a change might well start building - another big part of 1990 were poor local election results and the Eastbourne by-election defeat.
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