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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Johnson becomes favourite once again to succeed Mrs. May

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    NEW THREAD

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    May's deal will be slightly better I think, as we won't have the cost of holding a European Union election and our MEPs won't be accruing any more pension rights ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    The government has agreed Chuka Umunna mendment to publish the impact statement between staying in the EU and this deal

    Clever move as TM moves towards this deal or no brexit

    Hopefully they will publish figures for No Deal too
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619

    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?

    No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.

    Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.

    Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%
    This is a rather illogical argument.

    So that accepted you then have to proceed on what is likely to be the most acceptable deal to the widest number of people. Which clearly was not a hard Brexit nor necessarily one which ended FoM. Instead May chose to put the whole thing at risk by supporting a position which only had the support of perhaps 23% of the electorate and which bound us to decisions that would make Brexit immeasurably harder.
    Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.

    Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
    Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.
    Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.

    https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/wordcloud_leave-1024x575.png
    You do realise that's a completely fictitious word cloud you've linked to?

    (Hint - zoom in and take a look at the words round the edge - sovereignty for example appears quite a few times. Those edge words have just been added for effect.)

    image
    Perhaps the 'Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.' was referring to the link and wordcloud itself! What an odd thing to do.
    Er, maybe. But somehow I do not think that was Bromptonaut's intention.

    What made me laugh was that whoever created the fake wordcloud (and let's be honest, it was probably a Remainer looking to diss Leavers), whoever it was over-egged it to such an extent as to make it look instantly unbelievable.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    DUP abstaining still leaves Govt Majority of 3 - and Con MPs seem better at turning up than Opposition.

    So on face of it Govt still wins when DUP abstain - albeit that it may well be very tight.
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    bembem Posts: 1
    Thanks Mike for running the cartoon and the never-ending job of keeping this blog going.

    Best regards to everyone beneath the line too!
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    Pulpstar said:

    Are we including Kate Hoey in the DUP here ?

    No, she caucuses with the ERG
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT:

    Deafbloke said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tory GE Manifesto

    We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.

    Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7

    I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
    Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
    I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
    There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.

    The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
    If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.

    It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
    The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.

    But why would the EU have any interest at all in doing a "sensible deal" after the WA?

    They'll have us exactly where they've always wanted is - A neutered, diminished and impotent nation - You seriously think they'll take their foot off our throat when they have us where they want us?

    They'll double down and go for the jugular even more.
    If you start from the point of view that the EU is negotiating in bad faith, is explicitly malevolent towards us, and intent on subjugating and diminishing us, then surely there could never have been a Deal agreed with them that was ever remotely acceptable or in any way not malevolent and harmful?

    In which case, May could not be at fault, and neither could the Remain team. No-one could have obtained an acceptable Deal if the other party had no intent in providing an acceptable Deal.

    And a crash-out No Deal Brexit was inevitable from the day the referendum result came in, regardless of whatever Brexiteers promised before or since.
    +1. Well said. I can understand people who believe on balance we would be better off out but I have never understood the ranters who think the EU is the devil incarnate, it's bonkers stuff.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Andrew said:

    Rasmussen's credibility is about on a par with the ERG's.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    OllyT said:

    Andrew said:

    Rasmussen's credibility is about on a par with the ERG's.
    They had a R +1 generic ballot poll for the House. :lol:
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