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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the opti

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options

So a Shopping Centre on the Isle of Man just had their Christmas decorations done… ? pic.twitter.com/4s8MMsd9zn

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Lovely picture
  • "Fiona Onasanya, 35, is accused of using "dishonest means" to dodge a prosecution for driving 41mph in a 30mph zone, a week after being elected.

    At the Old Bailey she denied claiming that a Russian man was behind the wheel at the time her car was seen speeding.

    She spent Monday to Thursday at Westminster, leaving her car in Cambridge, allowing her mother Paulina Scott, her brother and others to borrow it while she was away.

    When a notice of intended prosecution (Nip) arrived in the post, she said she "assumed" she was not driving that Monday because of her Westminster commitments, even though Parliament was in recess.

    She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46263183

    The trial continues...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    This is absolutely key

    For the new Prime Minister will still face the same constraints as the old one. The EU will still take the same negotiating approach and will not budge much. Indeed, they will be unlikely to negotiate at all unless they believe that whatever comes next will stick – the evidence for which is slight at present.

    Parliament will continue to have an absolute majority of MPs who supported Remain at the referendum and who will have the priorities of Remain voters but where a majority of MPs recognise the mandate of the referendum. The Conservative party will remain just as riven on the subject.


    Fair enough for trying, I guess, but a new leader with a new stance might find some things a bit easier - support for a different approach - but which would make certain things harder - getting the EU to agree to any further concessions.

    I think you are right that this is mostly displacement activity.

    I do disagree though with the conclusion. If all the ERG and co care about is Brexiting then perhaps they should back the agreement after all given the options you point out which could result is us remaining. But they actually seem to believe that any Brexit is not sufficient it must be the correct Brexit, so though they would be apoplectic, us remaining would be a better option than this agreement, and as such the agreement not the best outcome.
  • kle4 said:

    Lovely picture

    I'm still in shock nearly two hours after I first saw it.

    I still think Alastair's opening is better.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,092
    edited November 2018
    FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.

    I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.

    If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.
  • The only losable vote of tonight now I think
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    "Fiona Onasanya, 35, is accused of using "dishonest means" to dodge a prosecution for driving 41mph in a 30mph zone, a week after being elected.

    At the Old Bailey she denied claiming that a Russian man was behind the wheel at the time her car was seen speeding.

    She spent Monday to Thursday at Westminster, leaving her car in Cambridge, allowing her mother Paulina Scott, her brother and others to borrow it while she was away.

    When a notice of intended prosecution (Nip) arrived in the post, she said she "assumed" she was not driving that Monday because of her Westminster commitments, even though Parliament was in recess.

    She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46263183

    The trial continues...

    She left the letter at her mother's house for whoever had been driving her car to deal with, not realising it was her responsibility as keeper of the vehicle, she said.

    Christine Agnew QC, defending, asked: "Was it your intention that Festus should use his dishonest means to help you out?"

    "Absolutely not," the MP replied.


    So with that, and the talk of her overwhelming new job as MP and her illness, she is using an 'I am stupid' defence with a side of sympathy for good measure?
  • That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384

    That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.
    The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.
  • FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.

    I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.

    If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.

    Northern Ireland voted to Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
    Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~258

    At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !
    It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour here
    The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continue
    Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hear
    I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.
    It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.
    Wasn't he have supposed to have asked people to break pairing arrangements, how does one do that by accident? And why would people doing worse in the past make something in the present ok?
    He said it was a genuine mistake
    Oh well, the defence rests your honour!
  • That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.
    There were enough Tory MPs ready to force her hand, defeat looked likely.
  • Big move to help remainers. TM choice is my brexit or no brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.

    First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.

    Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    Hopefully with economic forecasts looking at the impact of No Deal too
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
    Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~258

    At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !
    It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour here
    The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continue
    Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hear
    I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.
    It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.
    Wasn't he have supposed to have asked people to break pairing arrangements, how does one do that by accident? And why would people doing worse in the past make something in the present ok?
    He said it was a genuine mistake
    Oh well, the defence rests your honour!
    Julian follows me on twitter, he's a good egg.
  • Jonathan said:
    ... Brexit is almost impossible to stop?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666
    edited November 2018
    They already did. Tried to keep it under wraps because it wasn't a good news story.

    Edit here: https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

    UK 5% worse off under a May type deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 20,092
    edited November 2018

    FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.

    I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.

    If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.

    Northern Ireland voted to Remain.
    No they did not. Northern Ireland voted for the United Kingdom to remain.

    The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,784
    edited November 2018

    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?

    No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.

    Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.

    Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.

    [EDIT: unquote myself]
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    24th. Like the latest letter?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Pulpstar said:

    That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.
    The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.
    So they could pretty much say anything. I mean, it is not as though people believe economic forecasts they don't like anyway.

    I'd guess it will show that economically remain is best of all, otherwise they'd have been trumpeted all along.
  • FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.

    I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.

    If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.

    Northern Ireland voted to Remain.
    No they did not. Northern Ireland voted for the United Kingdom to remain.

    The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.
    Well the answer is to remain which is increasingly likely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    FPT

    Alistair said:
    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?
    Given many objections seem to be around following EU rules during the years of transition how exactly does also agreeing to that resolve those objections? If people are arguing against the rules of the withdrawal agreement, then we cannot very well discuss what the rules of the withdrawal agreement will be during the withdrawal, surely?
  • FPT some seem to think it is the wrong verb to suggest Northern Ireland would be subjugated to the EU by being compelled to follow Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them.

    I would suggest the definition of subjugation is to be subordinate or under the control of an external force. The population of Northern Ireland would not be a part of the EU but forced - without their consent - to follow its rules. That is subjugation. Where other nations have unilaterally chosen to follow Single Market rules that is their choice and they can choose to do so. Compelling people and not letting them democratically choose to diverge is controlling them. It is subjugation.

    If Northern Ireland votes (or their representatives vote) to follow SM rules and that is their choice and they can unilaterally end it then that would be a choice and not subjugation. If they have no choice and no say then they are subjugated.

    Northern Ireland voted to Remain.
    No they did not. Northern Ireland voted for the United Kingdom to remain.

    The question of Northern Ireland separate to the United Kingdom was not on the ballot paper.
    Well the answer is to remain which is increasingly likely
    Remaining would be more democratic than this deal for Northern Ireland I agree.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.
    The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.
    That doesn't necessarily follow. What we have now is identical to what we had two years ago yet we have underperformed by 2% of GDP already.
  • kle4 said:

    FPT

    Alistair said:
    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?
    Given many objections seem to be around following EU rules during the years of transition how exactly does also agreeing to that resolve those objections? If people are arguing against the rules of the withdrawal agreement, then we cannot very well discuss what the rules of the withdrawal agreement will be during the withdrawal, surely?
    I have no objections at all to temporary arrangements nor do most others. Temporary obligations for temporary benefits are reasonable. If we want a transition we should and will have to follow the rules during the transition.

    That's not the problem. The problem is that we are permanently subjugating some of our populace to permanently follow their rules in exchange for a temporary transition.

    Temporary obligations for temporary benefits is reasonable.
    Permanent obligations for temporary benefits is utter madness.
  • FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That's pretty big. May must be confident that info will help her.
    The transition is identical to what we have now, whilst the FTA is at this point unknown. So "No difference" would be my guess till the end of the transition period, at which point it is total guesswork.
    That doesn't necessarily follow. What we have now is identical to what we had two years ago yet we have underperformed by 2% of GDP already.
    No we havent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 610
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.

    First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.

    Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for

    Is there only one conceivable remain? Surely there are an infinite number of possible remain outcomes just as there were an infinite number of possible leave (and remain) outcomes in the 2016 referendum.

    Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528
    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Indeed so. If several EU countries want to revisit the agreements they can hardly complain if the UK wants to do likewise.
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    This bit is QMV right?
  • I can hardly stop laughing.

    Pathetic.

    And surely they will now turn on each other, as they realise that some were actually lying...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    QMV on Europe's side isn't it ?
  • Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head

    Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page

    I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit

    I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.

    She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    This bit is QMV right?
    Yes
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    edited November 2018
    Nearly half (£430m) of the DUP's £1bn has already been paid according to this report:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/government/confidence-and-supply-northern-irelands-1-billion/
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the council
  • "She could resign. She could put the vote forward again – an option that has been touted on the basis that the markets would go haywire at this point. She could propose a referendum on her deal (probably vs Remain). Or, the draft having been rejected, she could propose a referendum on Remaining after all, as opposed to leaving the EU without a deal. Or, I suppose, she could do nothing. It’s easy to see the negatives of all these options. The bloody difficult woman would have a bloody difficult decision."

    Presumably the way forward would at least in part be driven by the size of the defeat. Single figures would be "let's do that again" territory presumably with some imagined concession to try and allow some face saving.

    Losing by 30, 40, whatever would be a totally different kettle of fish, surely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586

    Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head

    Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page

    I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit

    I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.

    She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her

    Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    The EU can put whatever conditions it likes into the treaty as long as the UK agrees. Then the bespoke veto is in there. In practice Spain probably has a veto anyway. It's very hard to get these big agreements away if someone really objects.
  • HYUFD said:

    If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.

    First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.

    Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for

    Is there only one conceivable remain? Surely there are an infinite number of possible remain outcomes just as there were an infinite number of possible leave (and remain) outcomes in the 2016 referendum.

    Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.
    It's Schrodinger's Brexit. It exists in all the states between Full Leave and Full Remain simultaneously until negotiations complete
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head

    Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page

    I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit

    I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.

    She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her

    Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!
    Surely he is too sensible for the current Tory party?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,061

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    This bit is QMV right?
    The WA is QMV, the FTA requires unanimity.

    In practice these things arise from a consensus rather than a vote of any sort.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,720
    Funny, but not quite as good as "caught between the devil and the DUP", IMO.
  • I think one of the reasons that we are here is that anti-EU politicians have refused to compromise. They have been refusing to compromise for decades. Had they compromised in the 1980s, or the 90s, or in any previous decade then we would not be in this situation.

    Psychologically it is impossible for them to start compromising now. For one thing not compromising has brought them so far, so why change approach at this late stage, when they are so close?

    Bearing this in mind it would be a mistake for anyone to attempt to compromise with them. They aren't interested. They are likely to find a reason to vote against any deal. Broadly speaking I would ignore them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    True though if more countries follow suit it could pose problems in ensuring it has enough votes to pass
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the council
    Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?
    It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
  • Pulpstar said:
    With 1 Maggie Brexit would have been sorted by now
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,945
    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    I don't think Spain can veto the deal, as it will be voted on by the European Council under QMV. They will be able to veto the future relationship treaties that will be negotiated during the transitional period as those will require unanimity.
  • Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head

    Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page

    I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit

    I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.

    She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her

    Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!
    Thats very kind Ben. Thank you
  • viewcode said:

    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?

    No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.

    Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.

    Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.

    [EDIT: unquote myself]
    I agree but where there's a will there's a way and the EU are experts at reaching 11th hour can-kicking agreements. A temporary transition where we agree to temporarily follow EU rules in exchange for bucket loads of money, no say in the rules in the transition and we avoid the cliffedge for now but still have it at the end of the transition is just the sort of can-kicking we should expect. What's remarkable is that in exchange for that can kicking we aren't at the moment selling the family silver - we are for a temporary deal actually selling one of the family.

    A minimalist can kicking deal with a temporary A50 extension taking us to the point just before the European Parliament is dissolved in order to allow time for ratification ought to be possible. They get the money want, avoid the cliff edge we both want and get their rules enforced in our country while we sort this mess out. Win, win for them - even if they'd like to have won more, rejecting that won't make sense if there is no alternative and no time for an alternative.
  • IanB2 said:

    Thank you for the thread Alastair and you have hit the nail on the head

    Amazing over the months and months of us generally disagreeing we are now on the same page

    I have said on many occasions I am open to reasoned argument and my position has moved firmly to TM brexit or no brexit

    I would also say I want TM to take this through but then she must stand down in early spring to allow a proper leader election to take place.

    She will always be respected for her service, decency and determination to make brexit work as best as possible. I do not think history will be unkind to her

    Voice of reason as ever. If only more Tories were like you Big_G!
    Surely he is too sensible for the current Tory party?
    Some of us have to fight for our party against extremes
  • Pulpstar said:
    Indeed maybe Karen views herself as a European in which case she's not an immigrant [doubt it though].
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    If we are to have a referendum again to see if we really want to Leave with No Deal if May's Deal is rejected it should be two question.

    First question Deal v No Deal to determine the most favoured Leave option, then the winner of the first question v Remain.

    Then nobody can complain they were not given adequate choice or did not know what they were voting for

    Is there only one conceivable remain? Surely there are an infinite number of possible remain outcomes just as there were an infinite number of possible leave (and remain) outcomes in the 2016 referendum.

    Indeed the notion that was only one remain outcome underscores that many of those making claims about being able to influence the EU from within didn't believe what they were saying during the campaign.
    The Remain vote would be to stay on current terms given we are still in the EU until next March. Posing hypotheticals is pointless and unnecessarily complicated given Remain was already as is in the first vote.

    Deal, No Deal and Remain should be the maximum number of combinations allowed
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    This bit is QMV right?
    Yup, thanks to the wisdom of Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty.
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the council
    Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?
    It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
    But it has been finalised and put to the cabinet, it was put to the cabinet before Raab resigned remember?

    The process is that the cabinet agrees, we go to Brussels and confirm we agree (and other nations, the Commission etc confirm they agree). Then once agreed it goes to Parliaments for ratification.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    Given the Commons will almost certainly vote it down at least on the first vote it gives her some leeway if she can say the EU broke the terms of the Deal first if there is to be any renegotiation
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    The beloved EU wouldn't do anything so nasty! :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    The EU can put whatever conditions it likes into the treaty as long as the UK agrees. Then the bespoke veto is in there. In practice Spain probably has a veto anyway. It's very hard to get these big agreements away if someone really objects.
    In any case Spain isn't talking about vetoing the whole deal. It's talking about vetoing its application to Gibraltar.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,145
    So the government should have lost this evening yet won by 5. Only 227 Labour MPs voted for the Corbyn amendment -where on earth were the other 30? The Labour whips appear to be as clueless as the ERG in marshalling their forces.
  • In better news, the Dutch have grabbed a draw against the Germans and put France out of the nations league
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,061

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    This bit is QMV right?
    Yup, thanks to the wisdom of Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty.
    Wasn't it Mrs Thatchers Single European Act that brought in QMV?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,863
    No 48 letters?
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the council
    Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?
    It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
    You do lack knowledge sadly. The WDA is the treaty to take us out of the EU and allow the transition period and that will not change. However the poltical declaration that was 7 pages is the part TM is negotiating this week and is now in excess of 20 pages. It is that declaration that we still await
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    Given the Commons will almost certainly vote it down at least on the first vote it gives her some leeway if she can say the EU broke the terms of the Deal first if there is to be any renegotiation
    Only if she walks.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    Chris_A said:

    So the government should have lost this evening yet won by 5. Only 227 Labour MPs voted for the Corbyn amendment -where on earth were the other 30? The Labour whips appear to be as clueless as the ERG in marshalling their forces.

    I suppose Lab wasn't expecting the DUP to do what they did and thought the vote was a forgone conclusion.

    Bet they won't be making that mistake again now its open warfare between DUP and Theresa May.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,945
    viewcode said:

    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?

    Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.
    Is an Act required to ratify the WA though? AIUI a normal treaty can have its ratification vetoed by either House of Parliament passing a motion against ratification within three weeks of the treaty being laid before Parliament (the old Ponsonby rule made into statute by the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010). The "meaningful vote" provision for the WA means that a positive motion to ratify it has to pass the Commons (and the Lords? not sure of that).

    As all the legislation to implement Brexit has now been passed, it's unclear to me that a further Act to ratify the WA is required.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    Given the Commons will almost certainly vote it down at least on the first vote it gives her some leeway if she can say the EU broke the terms of the Deal first if there is to be any renegotiation
    Only if she walks.
    She won't do that but it might give her room to make some minor tweaks
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the council
    Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?
    It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
    You do lack knowledge sadly. The WDA is the treaty to take us out of the EU and allow the transition period and that will not change. However the poltical declaration that was 7 pages is the part TM is negotiating this week and is now in excess of 20 pages. It is that declaration that we still await
    So are you saying the cabinet agreed the WDA but has not agreed the political statement?

    Edit the WDA has already changed post cabinet the 20xx is being defined.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018
    So we've got to Monday night and still no 48 letters.

    ERG = Piss And Wind confirmed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,101
    Pulpstar said:
    Yes, I suspect a lot of Brexit voters thought they were voting to stop non-EU migration.
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Indeed so. If several EU countries want to revisit the agreements they can hardly complain if the UK wants to do likewise.
    I didn't realise there was a slightly differently coloured unicorn of deal which could be approved by the HoC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Well duh it hasn't passed, others may be waiting for the deal to fail first. But he's got some cheek talking about spin and it being a process not a moment - it's a process you bozos not only threatened to bring about for 6 months, bit also repeatedly said you were close to or even over the threshold in leaks to the media, so it would be your spin they fell for.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    The man's a fool!

    If your going to launch a coup to oust the Prime Minister you'd better make sure you've got the numbers first!
  • HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    May is going to turn up on Sunday and she will be ambushed. The EU will have all the "extras" the countries want in the deal and it will be no more negotiation agree this now.

    She is silly going to this meeting before getting the commons to vote, at least if that had happened then she could use the argument that the commons had already voted and she could not go against it.
    How can the hoc vote when the political declaration is still in negotiation and will only be available at the conclusion of the council
    Because it should still not be being negotiated. It has been put the the cabinet for approval both WDA and the political text. If it is still fluid how can the cabinet agree it?
    It should have been finalised, then put to the cabinet, agreed or not, then she should turn up in Brussels.
    You do lack knowledge sadly. The WDA is the treaty to take us out of the EU and allow the transition period and that will not change. However the poltical declaration that was 7 pages is the part TM is negotiating this week and is now in excess of 20 pages. It is that declaration that we still await
    So are you saying the cabinet agreed the WDA but has not agreed the political statement?

    Edit the WDA has already changed post cabinet the 20xx is being defined.
    The cabinet has agreed for TM to negotiate this week, attend the council next sunday, and bring the deal back to the hoc
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,145
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Yes, I suspect a lot of Brexit voters thought they were voting to stop non-EU migration.
    I'd love to be a fly on the wall when the Indian engineer and South African nurse move in as neighbours in the concessions made in the trade agreements signed with those countries.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,583

    viewcode said:

    Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?

    No I don't think that. But I do think that any deal that is signed has to be signed off by the European Council (QMV IIRC) and the European Parliament, and that imposes a time limit. At some point it will become too late for any deal because it can't be signed off in time, and I think we're pretty close to that (my head canon says mid December but I could be wrong). Bear in mind there are European Parliament elections in 2019.

    Plus any bill has to get thru the UK Parliament: readings, Commons, Lords, whatever.

    Neither the EU nor the UK can turn on a sixpence and this should be borne in mind.

    [EDIT: unquote myself]
    I agree but where there's a will there's a way and the EU are experts at reaching 11th hour can-kicking agreements. A temporary transition where we agree to temporarily follow EU rules in exchange for bucket loads of money, no say in the rules in the transition and we avoid the cliffedge for now but still have it at the end of the transition is just the sort of can-kicking we should expect. What's remarkable is that in exchange for that can kicking we aren't at the moment selling the family silver - we are for a temporary deal actually selling one of the family.

    A minimalist can kicking deal with a temporary A50 extension taking us to the point just before the European Parliament is dissolved in order to allow time for ratification ought to be possible. They get the money want, avoid the cliff edge we both want and get their rules enforced in our country while we sort this mess out. Win, win for them - even if they'd like to have won more, rejecting that won't make sense if there is no alternative and no time for an alternative.
    As i said earlier re: Corbyn, if we get to the point of "11th hour" can kicking to 'avoid' no deal brexit then no deal brexit will already have happened. Because everyone will have had to take action, implement contingency plans, market crashes etc etc on the basis that it will. People and businesses are currently making contingency plans (and spending lots of money) on the basis that no deal might happen. There comes a point when the contingencies have to be put into action.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    edited November 2018
    So no vnoc until after the vote in the middle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scared some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so serious
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.

    Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Never mind the ERG, it looks like Spain could also veto the Deal as it stands over Gibraltar at Sunday's EU Summit.

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/19/spain-threatens-to-veto-brexit-deal-over-gibraltar/

    If so could possibly give May some room for further negotiation if Barnier cannot hold his side together first

    Spain can't actually veto the deal from the EU side
    This bit is QMV right?
    Yup, thanks to the wisdom of Gordon Brown and the Lisbon Treaty.
    Wasn't it Mrs Thatchers Single European Act that brought in QMV?
    Yes, but a new arrangement for member state that was leaving would have needed a treaty, which would have needed unanimity until Lisbon made a QMV process for someone to leave.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    GIN1138 said:

    So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.

    Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?

    Gilbraltar doesn't have any.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so serious
    The discovery that the ERG are eight letters short of a coup shouldn't come as any surprise.
  • GIN1138 said:

    The man's a fool!

    If your going to launch a coup to oust the Prime Minister you'd better make sure you've got the numbers first!
    Laugh? I nearly died...

    I think we are talking full-scale amateur hour here.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832

    So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so serious
    I've had enough of the entire shit show.

    I just want the Conservatives gone now. Theresa. Boris. JRM. Baker. Soubry. Gove. Hammond.

    Please begone all of them.
  • GIN1138 said:

    So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.

    Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?

    TM has achieved a deal beyond the wildest expectations of David Cameron and would have been taken with open arms by ERG at that time. They have simply become too gready
  • IanB2 said:

    So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so serious
    The discovery that the ERG are eight letters short of a coup shouldn't come as any surprise.
    Baker is surprised.

    He thought he had 50-odd.

    :lol: :lol: :lol:
  • GIN1138 said:

    So Theresa May's sold Brexiteers down the river. She's sold Northern Ireland down the river.

    Presumably she'll be selling Gibraltar down the river next?

    My parents are Brexiteers and they would completely disagree; both very supportive of the deal.

    As others have commented, this is the danger of misrepresenting the 52 per cent leave vote as "one like-minded entity"; wasn't true on the day of the vote and even less true now.
  • GIN1138 said:

    So no vnoc until after the vote in the mddle of next month. The constituency chairs must have scare some of them witless. It is so funny if it was not so serious
    I've had enough of the entire shit show.

    I just want the Conservatives gone now. Theresa. Boris. JRM. Baker. Soubry. Gove. Hammond.

    Please begone all of them.
    You may have a long wait
This discussion has been closed.