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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the “deal” has impacted on the main UK political betting markets

 

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  • The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
  • Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    Ask Tspiras how that would go.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,996
    Fourth.... or is it 48th?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    What if it's Peter Bone, and he threatens the EU with nuclear weapons?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,687
    edited November 2018

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.
  • The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will think he is barking and tell him to grow up
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,274

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    I reckon they'd tell him to count to 48 to calm down...
  • Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.
    Yawn.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,009

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.
    So we’d get to reintegrate Newfoundland (vide Crimea) into the Empire?

    Sounds like a winner to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,996
    I
    RoyalBlue said:

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    You'll get to live through the kind of collapse that scarred your idol Vladimir Putin.
    So we’d get to reintegrate Newfoundland (vide Crimea) into the Empire?

    Sounds like a winner to me.
    Boris can be the first Governor. It’s not Southern Thule, but it’ll do.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will think he is barking and tell him to grow up
    Mogg will reply..

    "Let the wealthy and great
    Roll in splendour and state.
    I envy them not, I declare it,
    For I eat my own lamb,
    My own chickens and ham;
    I shear my own fleece and I wear it.
    I have lawns; I have bowers.
    I have fruits; I have flowers,
    The lark is my morning alarmer.
    So jolly boys now,
    Here's God speed the plough.
    Long life and success to the farmer."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,996
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/thomasmessenger/status/1064830099084779520

    Far too vibrant.
  • Is OGH planning a holiday in May or early June?

    Could be a busy time on PB.
  • Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,698

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms
  • Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    I thought Osborne wanted May cut up and put in a freezer?
  • Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,426
    May is much better at dealing with icebergs than the Titanic was. Who's to say now that she won't still be there in 2022?
  • Dadge said:

    May is much better at dealing with icebergs than the Titanic was. Who's to say now that she won't still be there in 2022?

    If she pulls this off she is entitled to stay as long as she wants
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 1,955

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    Doubt that's what the working class leavers had in mind when they voted for Brexit, still, I have always suspected they were nothing more than cannon fodder in the plans of the right-wing Tories.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885
    edited November 2018
    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment
  • Calling Roger:



    (As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
  • HYUFD said:

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms
    Then we do that and a hard border appears in Ireland. 5% of UK exports go to Ireland, but 14% of Irish exports go to the UK (and a greater proportion of Irish exports travel through the UK) so the hard border hurts them more.

    Or alternatively they drop this nonsense and we agree a mutually-respectful deal.
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
  • HYUFD said:

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms
    Then we do that and a hard border appears in Ireland. 5% of UK exports go to Ireland, but 14% of Irish exports go to the UK (and a greater proportion of Irish exports travel through the UK) so the hard border hurts them more.

    Or alternatively they drop this nonsense and we agree a mutually-respectful deal.
    I think there is only one person talking nonsense here
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,266

    Calling Roger:



    (As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

    That doesn't mean you should trust what they say.
  • Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,814

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will think he is barking and tell him to grow up
    He is barking and does need to grow up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,518
    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
    And I suspect that is nearly half the party
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
    It's obvious that is what they are going to do, with no deal not being an option.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They'd say "OK then".

    The Irish would be hurt the most, but we'd also be hammered.

    You see, we're not just dropping out of relationships with the EU, we'd be dropping out of relationships with the rest of the world. And, as we've seen with Open Skies / aviation negotiations with the US, the rest of the world is seeing this as an opportunity to get one up on us.

  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
    And I suspect that is nearly half the party
    As I say, better keep May or June free in our diaries...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
  • Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Looks like it
  • rcs1000 said:

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They'd say "OK then".

    The Irish would be hurt the most, but we'd also be hammered.

    You see, we're not just dropping out of relationships with the EU, we'd be dropping out of relationships with the rest of the world. And, as we've seen with Open Skies / aviation negotiations with the US, the rest of the world is seeing this as an opportunity to get one up on us.

    But as was discussed a few posts back in the chain it only takes convincing Varadkar and this is over. The Irish threatening a hard border to prevent a hard border is an obvious bluff, they don't want a hard border so are threatening something they are trying to prevent. The problem is we're too weak to call their bluff.

    If the PM is serious about calling it, whether it is smart too or not, then that changes the Game Theory for the Irish. Mogg is prepared to accept a bonkers Brexit, Varadkar is not prepared to have a hard border, so Varadkar would need to be the one who blinks then.
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    Tory Remainers have said that if Mogg keeps pushing us towards No Deal, they will respond and go for a 2nd vote, iirc.
    And I suspect that is nearly half the party
    As I say, better keep May or June free in our diaries...
    I'm best man on the 15th of June next year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,518

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    You’re suggesting we move five million people to the Isle of Wight and abandon the rest of the UK ?
    Interesting plan.

    I’ll put you down as the first volunteer.

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604
    Pulpstar said:

    TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

    I shorted it the day before yesterday. :)

    This story is more serious than people realise: https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
  • rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

    I shorted it the day before yesterday. :)

    This story is more serious than people realise: https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/
    Is it? Even the author says there are solutions (even if inconvenient ones) and that Tesla are normally good at addressing this sort of issue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,698

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    In theory yes, in reality we will be more likely to become Cuba or Venezuala on their border under PM Corbyn
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,518
    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
    If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
    With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,698

    HYUFD said:

    The NI Committee were told end of last week by the head of the port of Rotterdam - Europes larget importer - that the Irish border problem is a fiction and can be solved by existing technology in under 2 years

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/border-a-ficticious-problem-dutch-expert-tells-mps-1-8706484
    He needs to convince Michel Barnier and Leo Varadkar, not the UK.
    All that's needed is to convince Barnier and Varadkar is that we are serious, which requires May to be ousted.

    Barnier's original proposals didn't have the backstop in them and Varadkar's predecessor was working on a technological solution. This whole thing is an imaginary mess which we should never have allowed ourselves to agree to.
    We're not serious. That's because the threat of walking away is so mad that it ain't gonna happen, and everyone knows that.

    I agree that the whole thing is largely an imaginary mess, and would go away if we had the trade deal we want, but it's not me you need to convince, it's Barnier, Varadkar and the rest of the EU.
    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?
    They will say 'sod off' go to No Deal WTO terms then, it will hammer over 40% of your exports and less than 20% of our ours and be a painful lesson to any future nation trying to leave the EU without a trade deal largely on our terms
    Then we do that and a hard border appears in Ireland. 5% of UK exports go to Ireland, but 14% of Irish exports go to the UK (and a greater proportion of Irish exports travel through the UK) so the hard border hurts them more.

    Or alternatively they drop this nonsense and we agree a mutually-respectful deal.
    So what 14% still is a lot less than the 44% we send to the EU.

    If you try and dictate terms to a much larger economy there will only be one winner, them.

    We may have been able to dictate terms to Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014, we cannot dictate terms to the EU after the Brexit vote
  • Sky reporting the 'Political Declaration' expanded now to 15 pages and is not going to be published tomorrow due to ongoing negotiations
  • Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
  • HYUFD said:

    So what 14% still is a lot less than the 44% we send to the EU.

    If you try and dictate terms to a much larger economy there will only be one winner, them.

    We may have been able to dictate terms to Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014, we cannot dictate terms to the EU after the Brexit vote

    We're not dictating terms, we're declining one term. The rest of the terms are up for negotiations but had Scotland voted for independence there are terms they could quite rightly have refused to agree if the UK had demanded it. This is one such term.
  • Sky reporting the 'Political Declaration' expanded now to 15 pages and is not going to be published tomorrow due to ongoing negotiations

    More written in a few days than the past 18 months.
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
    With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.
    She will win a vnoc. There is growing anger in the party over the Dads Army extreme fringe and no way will a vnoc succeed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,698
    edited November 2018

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
    With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.
    Most Tory MPs back this Deal and May probably secretly backs EUref2 over No Deal as do a small majority of Tory MPs
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,831
    Pulpstar said:

    TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

    AIUI most of the long-term shorts would already have made their money back, thanks to Musk's insanity a few months ago.

    Personally, I foresee a similar rollercoaster ride over the next few years - and uch of it down to Musk himself.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157
    No!!!!!! Really????? As though she'd do that! :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TSLA almost up at 350. Boy I'd hate to have shorted that stock.

    I shorted it the day before yesterday. :)

    This story is more serious than people realise: https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/
    Is it? Even the author says there are solutions (even if inconvenient ones) and that Tesla are normally good at addressing this sort of issue.
    Electrek are massive Tesla bulls normally. When they have a negative story, it means something. Given the valuation, even a modest slowdown in deliveries to more Northerly places could be a big negative for the stock.

    (This is really a trading call - I'm not making a long term bet here.)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,361
    THat poll has come nicely for TMay.. enough to frighten off a few waverers..
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
    If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
    Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
    If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
    Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
    Eh? So if parliament legislates for a referendum, you're saying the executive will overrule it? Interesting.

    Of course we can have a referendum,
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,317
    edited November 2018
    Rant deleted.
  • Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,518

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Well it is, literally, a great splodge of ink, and Xenon is seeing what he wishes to see, so I prefer my comparison.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    Hypothetically if May was ousted and Prime Minister Rees-Mogg *shudder* was elected and went to Barnier et al and said the backstop is dead, we're heading automatically to WTO unless they change the deal to remove the backstop do you really think they'll think "he's not serious"?

    They'd say (in diplomatic language) 'You're completely mad, come back when you've changed your mind (assuming you last last long enough as PM to get that opportunity'.
    Cue we walk away with no deal, and become Singapore on their border. Lovely stuff.
    Household final expenditure as a percent of GDP

    Singapore: 36%
    UK: 66%

    Household savings rate (OECD)

    Singapore: 19%
    UK: -1.6%

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,167

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
    Doubt they'd want the deserter back again.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,297
    Jonathan said:

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
    If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
    Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
    Eh? So if parliament legislates for a referendum, you're saying the executive will overrule it? Interesting.

    Of course we can have a referendum,
    I think he was agreeing with williamglenn
  • HYUFD said:

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    In a national emergency the HOC and HOL can act very quickly
    With the bakcing of the PM yes. There wouldn't be backing of the PM if she's no confidenced.
    Most Tory MPs back this Deal and May probably secretly backs EUref2 over No Deal as do a small majority of Tory MPs
    I think that is now a 'growing' majority of conservative mps
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,525

    Calling Roger:



    (As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

    Odd view of what constitutes a profession. But did the weight poll responders by truthfulness? Can we trust the probity of the responders? There seems to be a inherent logical failing.
  • THat poll has come nicely for TMay.. enough to frighten off a few waverers..

    Which poll
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604
    HYUFD said:

    So what 14% still is a lot less than the 44% we send to the EU.

    If you try and dictate terms to a much larger economy there will only be one winner, them.

    We may have been able to dictate terms to Scotland had they voted for independence in 2014, we cannot dictate terms to the EU after the Brexit vote

    The important question that's never talked about is fungibility. Is it easier for the EU to find alternative export markets, or for the UK?

    I suspect the answer is that - excepting Ireland - the answer is that it's easier for the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604
    matt said:

    Calling Roger:



    (As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

    Odd view of what constitutes a profession. But did the weight poll responders by truthfulness? Can we trust the probity of the responders? There seems to be a inherent logical failing.
    Bodycams in the US are leading a great many people to have lower trust for the police.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    matt said:

    Calling Roger:



    (As ever perception can be deeply unfair - Advertising Executives are one of the few people on that list who have to tell the truth if they want their work aired....)

    Odd view of what constitutes a profession. But did the weight poll responders by truthfulness? Can we trust the probity of the responders? There seems to be a inherent logical failing.

    And do we trust pollsters?

    Where do they come on the trust chart prepared by pollsters.?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,022

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
    he's poison
  • glwglw Posts: 4,783
    A statement from the President of the United States,

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-standing-saudi-arabia/

    You really should read it.
  • Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
    he's poison
    Cameron, Osborne, Clegg coalition would be a dream team right now
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,388
    edited November 2018

    Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
    If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
    Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
    So the question would then be do Labour want a General Election more than second referendum? Because the obvious thing for the Eurosceptics to do would be to support a VONC in Parliament and bring about a GE at which point the meaningful vote bill falls.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
    he's poison
    Cameron, Osborne, Clegg coalition would be a dream team right now
    Why? They created this mess.
  • glw said:

    A statement from the President of the United States,

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-standing-saudi-arabia/

    You really should read it.

    Fairly predictable
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,022
    edited November 2018

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Xenon said:

    Tonights Evening Standard has the most wonderful 'Dads Army' front page

    George Osborne going for the jugular

    Osborne is backing May now?
    Just opposing the imbecile.

    Oh so he's not backing her.
    Think of it as a political Rorschach blot.

    More of a modern day Molotov–Ribbentrop pact.

    Or when Churchill aligned us with Stalin.

    Now you could argue that both May and Osborne are the modern day Churchill.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/
    Time George stood in his former constituency and got rid of McVey who could join UKIP
    he's poison
    Cameron, Osborne, Clegg coalition would be a dream team right now
    they were shit at the time and would be worse now, all PR puff and bollocks

    if you want to know why we are were we are look the posh boys and how they misread the country
  • Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,022

    Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.

    Mr Tyndall

    havent seen you for a while, nice to see youre back
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684

    Rant deleted.

    Well that won't catch on :)
  • Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.

    Mr Tyndall

    havent seen you for a while, nice to see youre back
    Cheers sir.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,167
    edited November 2018

    Completely OT we found out today my daughter will be having interviews for Trinity College Cambridge in a couple of weeks. Which should please TSE as he is forever screaming its virtues.

    They're minted, aren't they? I think they own the land on which the Port of Felixstowe is built.

    Oh, and best of luck to her.
  • Possible sequence of events:

    - DUP vote with Labour to defeat the government on Finance Bill
    - Confidence vote in government tabled
    - DUP vote with the government to defeat no confidence motion
    - Corbyn forced to back Wollaston amendment on a people's vote
    - Amendment for second referendum passes
    - Government wins meaningful vote with referendum commitment

    How does the amendment for second referendum pass?
    With Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and Tory rebel votes.
    But a second referendum requires a vote on legislation in parliament.

    How will a legislative Bill get put to parliament in the time scale?
    The government would have to bring forward the legislation, which would then command cross-party support and could be fast-tracked.
    But a Conservative government is not going to bring forward the necessary legislation for a second referendum.
    If the meaningful vote passes with an amendment requiring one, they'd have to.
    Sadly William you can keep telling them but it is fingers in the ear time
    So the question would then be do Labour want a General Election more than second referendum? Because the obvious thing for the Eurosceptics to do would be to support a VONC in Parliament and bring about a GE at which point the meaningful vote bill falls.
    And each deselected and the GE fought with new candidates and of course many of them will be out of Parliament and labour will hold a referendum and we will stay no matter
This discussion has been closed.