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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referen

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

Labour peer Lord Adonis rules out the possibility of a general election over Brexit gridlock, instead considering a referendum more likely in 2019.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,613
    "Lord" Adonis is about as sensible over all things brexity as Mogg and co.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2018
    Goodnight all..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    An Adonis assertion fails to convince people?

    Say it ain't so...
  • If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The two trends coalesce in the form of a Deal/Remain referendum.
  • Eddie Izzard said there'd be a second referendum, that was tipping point for me.

    Put my house on no referendum before 2020.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.
  • ydoethur said:

    An Adonis assertion fails to convince people?

    Say it ain't so...

    Sums it up. One of those moments where I wish we had the like button back.
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    They take him seriously because he studied history, albeit at the dump.

    As you can attest historians are fab.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    The face of hard remain.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,651
    "More Andrew than Adonis"

    (The wonderful, and much missed, Alan Watkins attributed that phrase to Robert Harris: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/alan-watkins/hell-need-more-than-a-fishermans-friend-126151.html .)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    They take him seriously because he studied history, albeit at the dump.

    As you can attest historians are fab.
    But he studied it at Oxford, which as you may have noticed I've been dissing for the last several hours,
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,814
    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    " confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

    He seems perfectly qualified for PB. ;)

    (Or is that just me ...)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,676

    Eddie Izzard said there'd be a second referendum, that was tipping point for me.

    Put my house on no referendum before 2020.

    Dan Hodges agrees with you!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    " confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

    He seems perfectly qualified for PB. ;)

    (Or is that just me ...)
    You don't talk rubbish, Josias.

    Sunil, of curse, get him off trains and onto the Last Jedi...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Superb match at Hampden.

    Well done to Scotland.
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    Or gives him airtime.

    Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

    Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....
  • timmotimmo Posts: 968
    Why?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    If the Commons backs a referendum, Theresa May will be out right there and then if not before.

    As for "Mogg's coup", the night is young.
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    Or gives him airtime.

    Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

    Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....
    Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,276
    edited November 2018

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    Or gives him airtime.

    Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

    Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....
    If I remember correctly JohnO was very briefly a City of Oxford councillor.

    John is of course a Balliol boy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384

    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    “Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”
  • I’m coming to the conclusion that even though a referendum is probably undesirable it might well be the easiest resolution of the current political paralysis. The politicians have failed so the people may need to step into the breach.

    FWIW I think a hard leave is marginally more likely than a hard remain if the public is asked. In a sane world neither side would risk it.
  • Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    Figuring Whittaker's Doctor Who stint will be short, I can only assume.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Pulpstar said:

    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    “Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”
    “If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”
  • Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    Figuring Whittaker's Doctor Who stint will be short, I can only assume.
    Leaving next year apparently

    http://www.doctorwhotv.co.uk/rumour-series-12-in-2019-chibnall-whittaker-leaving-after-89504.htm
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

    But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    Notch said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    If the Commons backs a referendum, Theresa May will be out right there and then if not before.

    As for "Mogg's coup", the night is young.
    Last night isn't. If you see what I mean.
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    Or gives him airtime.

    Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

    Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....
    Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor
    She’s also been elected to Parliament. Twice.

    Two times more than Adonis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Pulpstar said:

    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    “Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”
    “If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”
    If at first you don't succeed - sky diving probably isn't your thing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    edited November 2018
    DavidL said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

    But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.
    DavidL said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

    But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.
    Yes; the result was far too close to just tear everthing up.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,459
    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    Or gives him airtime.

    Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

    Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....
    Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor
    In God we Truss!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    No, that's me.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,720

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018
    DavidL said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

    But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.
    If BINO was what Mrs May wanted then fair enough. She should have been honest about it from the start.

    It's the lies and deceit that have done it for her. Brexit Means Brexit? Ne deal better than a bad deal? We'll leave the SM and the CU?

    She's played the Brexiteers (and the DUP) and she and her party will now suffer all the consequences....
  • I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

    1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

    2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    Danny565 said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
    All of the possible outcomes knacker the Tory prospects, from Remain through WTO; such is the beauty of Brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

    But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.
    If BINO was what Mrs May wanted then fair enough. She should have been honest about it from the start.

    It's the lies and deceit that have done it for her. Brexit Means Brexit? Ne deal better than a bad deal? We'll leave the SM and the CU.

    She's played the Brexiteers and she and her party will now suffer all the consequences....
    Yep. She has played this as well as she did the 2017 election campaign but if her deal goes through it will be a tolerable result.
  • ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    " confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

    He seems perfectly qualified for PB. ;)

    (Or is that just me ...)
    But unfortunately we don't get paid to do so :wink:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    Or gives him airtime.

    Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

    Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....
    Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor
    She’s also been elected to Parliament. Twice.

    Two times more than Adonis.
    Neither of them got very far with the SDP, however.
  • I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

    1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

    2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

    I'd add

    3) Those who think their leadership ambitions/further career in the party will be enhanced by peddling this rhetoric.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,896

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    No, that's me.
    We are to assume you are not one and the same then?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    I remember that on TV years ago; the Naked Civil Servant, wasn't it?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760
    Adonis? ha ha ha ha ha

    Btw Clive Lewis, what a plank
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,720
    Why do people (like Adonis, in the header video) continue to claim that there wouldn't be a general election unless Tory MPs voted for it?

    Admittedly it's still far from certain that the DUP would join forces with all other Opposition MPs in a no confidence motion, not to mention the Labour MPs who've gone independent since the last election (although I wouldn't be surprised if Team Corbyn are in negotiations with Field, Woodcock and O'Mara right now, promising them they'll get guaranteed re-selection for the next election, over the heads of their local parties, in exchange for their support in a confidence vote), but it's still demonstrably untrue that the date of the next election is in the hands of Tory MPs.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    No, that's me.
    LOL
  • I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

    1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

    2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

    I'd add

    3) Those who think their leadership ambitions/further career in the party will be enhanced by peddling this rhetoric.

    Indeed.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    " confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

    He seems perfectly qualified for PB. ;)

    (Or is that just me ...)
    You don't talk rubbish, Josias.

    Sunil, of curse, get him off trains and onto the Last Jedi...
    There weren't any trains in The Last Jedi.

    But there was one in Solo....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

    But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.
    If BINO was what Mrs May wanted then fair enough. She should have been honest about it from the start.

    It's the lies and deceit that have done it for her. Brexit Means Brexit? Ne deal better than a bad deal? We'll leave the SM and the CU?

    She's played the Brexiteers (and the DUP) and she and her party will now suffer all the consequences....
    Or by taking a tough stance she strengthened her negotiating position with the EU
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,280
    edited November 2018

    I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

    1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

    2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

    The true ERGers are, to a man, radical ultra Thatcherite Hayekian state reducers, wonks rather than people people who would be genuinely perplexed when taking their policies to their logical conclusion ended in blood on the streets. Hard Brexit is not their obsession but the means to their end - freedom from all limitation and, for some, the chaos under which to implement. As with their EU policies, their economics are way beyond anything Thatcher would have contemplated.

    I'd suspect, however, there is a social conservative, social liberal divide in their ranks.

    TSE's ambitious outriders should beware being in hock to these people, lest the siren call of ultra Thatcherism dashes their premiership on the rocks.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,459
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    “Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”
    “If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”
    If at first you don't succeed - sky diving probably isn't your thing.
    When learning to skydive, student parachutists have logbooks in which instructors write down how they are doing.
    I have known students who have done poorly on one of the exercises to receive just the pithy comment: "Take up golf"
  • Pro_Rata said:

    I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

    1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

    2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

    The true ERGers are, to a man, radical ultra Thatcherite Hayekian state reducers, wonks rather than people people who would be genuinely perplexed when taking their policies to their logical conclusion ended in blood on the streets. Hard Brexit is not their obsession but the means to their end - freedom from all limitation and the chaos under which to implement. As with their EU policies, their economics are way beyond anything Thatcher would have contemplated.

    I'd suspect, however, there is a social conservative, social liberal divide in their ranks.

    TSE's ambitious outriders should beware being in hock to these people, lest the siren call of ultra Thatcherism dashes their premiership on the rocks.

    I suspect that the true ERG hardliners would be quite happy to have a Corbyn government which does bankrupt Britain.

    They could then build their libertarian pirate island on the ruins with no welfare state etc left as an obstacle.
  • If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    Or we will have a 2nd vote in May/June. Don't book your holidays just yet Mike!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I can’t read that story. But if the copy reflects the headline, that could be the beginning of the end for the union.
  • Clive Lewis showing again why he got the heave ho from his bbc job, and it was nought to do with his skin colour. The thing is he keeps doing this shit and nothing ever happens to him, he is like boris without the brains or charm or knowledge of ancient history.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,814
    IanB2 said:

    Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

    image

    I remember that on TV years ago; the Naked Civil Servant, wasn't it?
    The 'Naked Civil Servant' is perhaps my school's most famous alumni.

    Thank God I can say: "I went to Quentin Crisps' school", and not: "I went to IDS' school." :)
  • Corbyn is tweeting about Kindertransport tonight. Apparently it inspires and humbles him.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,459

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    No, that's me.
    :) :)
  • Corbyn is tweeting about Kindertransport tonight. Apparently it inspires and humbles him.

    I presume that is the name of manhole cover manufacturer?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,814
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    " confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

    He seems perfectly qualified for PB. ;)

    (Or is that just me ...)
    You don't talk rubbish, Josias.

    (Snip)
    I don't know. Mrs J always quotes Harriet Vane's line at me, and says she only married me for the pleasure of hearing me talk piffle.

    Because of this, I try to give her intense pleasure every day. ;)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    Yep, that’s my position too. I guess we shall see.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Good article outlining why May's deal is terrible and we'd be better off staying in even for people who want Brexit:

    https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say-appear-establishment-conspiracy-brexit/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    Wish we could see some opinion polling... Those two polls at the weekend which were atrocious enough for Con only covered Wednesday to Thursday last week.

    I thought YouGov might have a poll out tonight...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    No, that's me.
    :)

    PB has been at it’s best these past few days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    ydoethur said:

    Let's be serious for a moment:

    Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

    Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

    " confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

    He seems perfectly qualified for PB. ;)

    (Or is that just me ...)
    But unfortunately we don't get paid to do so :wink:
    We peddle nonsense in a wholesome, artisanal way, like our grandfathers and their grandfathers before them. Not like these cynical, professional politicians and their wannabes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    Presumably some news means merely than remain is inevitable, without the need for a referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754

    Poll boost for May

    A week ago 33 per cent of voters backed Mrs May staying in her post and 47 per cent wanted her to go, a YouGov poll for The Times showed. Now 46 per cent say that she should stay and 34 per cent want her to stand down.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/voters-rally-behind-theresa-may-as-rees-mogg-coup-attempt-stalls-3xxbnwsct
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609


    FWIW I think a hard leave is marginally more likely than a hard remain if the public is asked. In a sane world neither side would risk it.

    If only we lived in one
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    People have been saying it is a humiliation and capitulation. How do they roll back from that? Because the number on record opposing it is too high, so it's not even a question of firming up the undecideds.
  • If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    Reality check: Even with Conservatives fully supportive of the whips, TMay has already lost her ability to get routine legislation through the Commons, as evidenced tonight by being forced to accept Labour amendments to the Finance Bill. Her deal doesn't have a chance in hell.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Not surprised. At a weekend party in the Tory shires. The wealthy Labourites I was staying with all backer May as the best option. “She’s a fighter”, “she’s actually sane”, “at least she wants the country to be okay”. I thought, “hmm”.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Anazina said:

    Not surprised. At a weekend party in the Tory shires. The wealthy Labourites I was staying with all backed May as the best option. “She’s a fighter”, “she’s actually sane”, “at least she wants the country to be okay”. I thought, “hmm”.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,818
    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
  • The poll also shows that Mrs May’s fortunes have most improved among Tory voters. A week ago, 43 per cent who voted Conservative in the 2017 general election said that they wanted her to stand down. Now only 27 per cent want her to resign. The proportion of 2016 Leave voters who want her to resign has dropped from 55 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent now.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    Biggest rise in support from Lib-Dems, the biggest party of Remain in the country.

    Says it all....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Xenon said:

    Good article outlining why May's deal is terrible and we'd be better off staying in even for people who want Brexit:

    https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say-appear-establishment-conspiracy-brexit/

    I have to say I'm with it most of the way, but I always laugh when people complain about Cabinet's being 'bounced' or manipulated in supporting the PM's plans. Whether you think it a good plan or not, I don't know that crying about how the poor Cabinet members have been forced into things (none of them have, they could always quit, and plenty have) is the way to go.

    Interesting it states no brexit will save us money.

    I do feel its conclusions don't really match the overall tone of the piece. It talks about this vast, ruthlessly and successfully executed con job to make a proper Brexit unattainable and prepare us for a return to the EU, in 2022, but ends by assuming that if we simply don't go in the first place, there will be a landslide for proper leaving in 2022.

    Also, how is the government to be forced into the action the piece says is necessary. If hundreds of MPs in the Tories support the deal, albeit not enough to pass it, why would they support an action diametrically opposed to the deal? Yes no deal is default, and it acknowledges the threat May has made about no brexit and that people should not be put off by it, which is only right and proper, people should do whatever they think is right after all, but if hundreds support this deal, and hundreds more support a theoretical new deal (to include Labour after all) why pretend the hard leave preparations will be positively passed, or ignore that actions may be taken to prevent it?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    dixiedean said:

    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
    It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,522
    GIN1138 said:

    Biggest rise in support from Lib-Dems, the biggest party of Remain in the country.

    Says it all....
    That sort of increase means about three extra people in the entire country think May should stay. :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    dixiedean said:

    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory.
    Voting intention is, I suspect, not at the forefront of her mind right now so I doubt she would mind that. Sucks for the next leader, but if enough MPs believe this deal is best for the country, then it doesn't really matter if people are not more or less likely to vote Tory.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,863
    edited November 2018
    WTI crude down to just $53. That's about £42.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    The poll also shows that Mrs May’s fortunes have most improved among Tory voters. A week ago, 43 per cent who voted Conservative in the 2017 general election said that they wanted her to stand down. Now only 27 per cent want her to resign. The proportion of 2016 Leave voters who want her to resign has dropped from 55 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent now.

    What was it the week before last?
  • dixiedean said:

    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
    Her rivals are the same as they were a week ago. Such a huge change in a week must mean that voters basically support her approach rather than supporting those who have spent the week trying to trash it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
    It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.
    They haven't though. Plenty of people would still choose it, and a majority of MPs are, despite what they may hollowly claim, happy to risk it even if they do not want it.

    They do appear to have made a misstep though. The leadership trigger has been half pulled for awhile, and will probably still come through at some point, but despite their attempts to counter spin they really did give the impression it was imminently on, and they were just plain wrong about that. Silly boys.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

    The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
    Reality check: Even with Conservatives fully supportive of the whips, TMay has already lost her ability to get routine legislation through the Commons, as evidenced tonight by being forced to accept Labour amendments to the Finance Bill. Her deal doesn't have a chance in hell.
    He might be in the camp assuming it will pass on a second run through.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,863
    Anazina said:

    dixiedean said:

    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
    It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.
    Does anyone have a clue how much support hard brexit has in the country?
  • kle4 said:

    The poll also shows that Mrs May’s fortunes have most improved among Tory voters. A week ago, 43 per cent who voted Conservative in the 2017 general election said that they wanted her to stand down. Now only 27 per cent want her to resign. The proportion of 2016 Leave voters who want her to resign has dropped from 55 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent now.

    What was it the week before last?
    Article doesn't say.

    We'll have to wait for the tables.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    welshowl said:

    Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

    No, that's me.
    We are to assume you are not one and the same then?
    William has a sense of humour that Adonis appears to utterly lack.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 26,863
    edited November 2018
    Ken Clarke on Newsnight. He should have become Tory leader in 1997 but 36 year-old William Hague messed that up.
  • dixiedean said:

    Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
    Her rivals are the same as they were a week ago. Such a huge change in a week must mean that voters basically support her approach rather than supporting those who have spent the week trying to trash it.
    Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

    * also applies to referendum votes :)
  • Seems to me that a lot of ferrets are going to be doing U-turns in the next couple of weeks.... Mike is right, it's looking as though the PM has a chance of bringing this off.
This discussion has been closed.