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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

Labour peer Lord Adonis rules out the possibility of a general election over Brexit gridlock, instead considering a referendum more likely in 2019.

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Andrew

"Lord" Adonis is about as sensible over all things brexity as Mogg and co.

Beverley_C

Goodnight all..

ydoethur

An Adonis assertion fails to convince people?

Say it ain't so...

OblitusSumMe

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

williamglenn

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The two trends coalesce in the form of a Deal/Remain referendum.

TheScreamingEagles

Eddie Izzard said there'd be a second referendum, that was tipping point for me.

Put my house on no referendum before 2020.

ydoethur

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

An Adonis assertion fails to convince people?

Say it ain't so...

Sums it up. One of those moments where I wish we had the like button back.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

They take him seriously because he studied history, albeit at the dump.

As you can attest historians are fab.

Pulpstar

The face of hard remain.

El_Capitano

"More Andrew than Adonis"

(The wonderful, and much missed, Alan Watkins attributed that phrase to Robert Harris: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/alan-watkins/hell-need-more-than-a-fishermans-friend-126151.html .)

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

They take him seriously because he studied history, albeit at the dump.

As you can attest historians are fab.

But he studied it at Oxford, which as you may have noticed I've been dissing for the last several hours,

JosiasJessop

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

" confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

He seems perfectly qualified for PB.

(Or is that just me ...)

bigjohnowls

TheScreamingEagles said:

Eddie Izzard said there'd be a second referendum, that was tipping point for me.

Put my house on no referendum before 2020.

Dan Hodges agrees with you!!

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

" confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

He seems perfectly qualified for PB.

(Or is that just me ...)

You don't talk rubbish, Josias.

Sunil, of curse, get him off trains and onto the Last Jedi...

Anazina

Superb match at Hampden.

Well done to Scotland.

CarlottaVance

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Or gives him airtime.

Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....

timmo

Why?

williamglenn

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

Notch

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

If the Commons backs a referendum, Theresa May will be out right there and then if not before.

As for "Mogg's coup", the night is young.

MikeSmithson

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Or gives him airtime.

Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....

Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor

MikeSmithson

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Or gives him airtime.

Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....

If I remember correctly JohnO was very briefly a City of Oxford councillor.

John is of course a Balliol boy.

Pulpstar

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

“Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”

AlastairMeeks

I’m coming to the conclusion that even though a referendum is probably undesirable it might well be the easiest resolution of the current political paralysis. The politicians have failed so the people may need to step into the breach.

FWIW I think a hard leave is marginally more likely than a hard remain if the public is asked. In a sane world neither side would risk it.

solarflare

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

Figuring Whittaker's Doctor Who stint will be short, I can only assume.

williamglenn

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

“Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”

“If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”

TheScreamingEagles

solarflare said:

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

Figuring Whittaker's Doctor Who stint will be short, I can only assume.

Leaving next year apparently

http://www.doctorwhotv.co.uk/rumour-series-12-in-2019-chibnall-whittaker-leaving-after-89504.htm

DavidL

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.

OldKingCole

Notch said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

If the Commons backs a referendum, Theresa May will be out right there and then if not before.

As for "Mogg's coup", the night is young.

Last night isn't. If you see what I mean.

CarlottaVance

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Or gives him airtime.

Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....

Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor

She’s also been elected to Parliament. Twice.

Two times more than Adonis.

ydoethur

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

“Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”

“If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”

If at first you don't succeed - sky diving probably isn't your thing.

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.

Yes; the result was far too close to just tear everthing up.

Andy_Cooke

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Or gives him airtime.

Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....

Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor

In God we Truss!

williamglenn

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

No, that's me.

Danny565

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.

GIN1138

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.

If BINO was what Mrs May wanted then fair enough. She should have been honest about it from the start.

It's the lies and deceit that have done it for her. Brexit Means Brexit? Ne deal better than a bad deal? We'll leave the SM and the CU?

She's played the Brexiteers (and the DUP) and she and her party will now suffer all the consequences....

another_richard

I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

IanB2

Danny565 said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.

All of the possible outcomes knacker the Tory prospects, from Remain through WTO; such is the beauty of Brexit.

DavidL

GIN1138 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.

If BINO was what Mrs May wanted then fair enough. She should have been honest about it from the start.

It's the lies and deceit that have done it for her. Brexit Means Brexit? Ne deal better than a bad deal? We'll leave the SM and the CU.

She's played the Brexiteers and she and her party will now suffer all the consequences....

Yep. She has played this as well as she did the 2017 election campaign but if her deal goes through it will be a tolerable result.

another_richard

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

" confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

He seems perfectly qualified for PB.

(Or is that just me ...)

But unfortunately we don't get paid to do so

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

Or gives him airtime.

Has any other former City of Oxford Councillor ever got as much?

Just don't tell TSE he went to Cowley Tec.....

Liz Truss is a former Oxford councillor

She’s also been elected to Parliament. Twice.

Two times more than Adonis.

Neither of them got very far with the SDP, however.

TheScreamingEagles

another_richard said:

I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

I'd add

3) Those who think their leadership ambitions/further career in the party will be enhanced by peddling this rhetoric.

welshowl

williamglenn said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

No, that's me.

We are to assume you are not one and the same then?

IanB2

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

I remember that on TV years ago; the Naked Civil Servant, wasn't it?

Floater

Adonis? ha ha ha ha ha

Btw Clive Lewis, what a plank

Danny565

Why do people (like Adonis, in the header video) continue to claim that there wouldn't be a general election unless Tory MPs voted for it?

Admittedly it's still far from certain that the DUP would join forces with all other Opposition MPs in a no confidence motion, not to mention the Labour MPs who've gone independent since the last election (although I wouldn't be surprised if Team Corbyn are in negotiations with Field, Woodcock and O'Mara right now, promising them they'll get guaranteed re-selection for the next election, over the heads of their local parties, in exchange for their support in a confidence vote), but it's still demonstrably untrue that the date of the next election is in the hands of Tory MPs.

Floater

williamglenn said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

No, that's me.

LOL

another_richard

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

I'd add

3) Those who think their leadership ambitions/further career in the party will be enhanced by peddling this rhetoric.

Indeed.

Sunil_Prasannan

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

" confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

He seems perfectly qualified for PB.

(Or is that just me ...)

You don't talk rubbish, Josias.

Sunil, of curse, get him off trains and onto the Last Jedi...

There weren't any trains in The Last Jedi.

But there was one in Solo....

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1065002523910656007

Charles

GIN1138 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

I think I agree with that apart from the last word which I am far from convinced that May deserves.

But a BINO seems a fair response to a very close referendum. As long as we have choices to move in either direction afterwards I will be reasonably content.

If BINO was what Mrs May wanted then fair enough. She should have been honest about it from the start.

It's the lies and deceit that have done it for her. Brexit Means Brexit? Ne deal better than a bad deal? We'll leave the SM and the CU?

She's played the Brexiteers (and the DUP) and she and her party will now suffer all the consequences....

Or by taking a tough stance she strengthened her negotiating position with the EU

Pro_Rata

another_richard said:

I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

The true ERGers are, to a man, radical ultra Thatcherite Hayekian state reducers, wonks rather than people people who would be genuinely perplexed when taking their policies to their logical conclusion ended in blood on the streets. Hard Brexit is not their obsession but the means to their end - freedom from all limitation and, for some, the chaos under which to implement. As with their EU policies, their economics are way beyond anything Thatcher would have contemplated.

I'd suspect, however, there is a social conservative, social liberal divide in their ranks.

TSE's ambitious outriders should beware being in hock to these people, lest the siren call of ultra Thatcherism dashes their premiership on the rocks.

Andy_Cooke

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

“Fashion is what you adopt when you don't know who you are.”

“If at first you don’t succeed, failure may be your style.”

If at first you don't succeed - sky diving probably isn't your thing.

When learning to skydive, student parachutists have logbooks in which instructors write down how they are doing.
I have known students who have done poorly on one of the exercises to receive just the pithy comment: "Take up golf"

another_richard

Pro_Rata said:

another_richard said:

I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:

1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)

2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill

The true ERGers are, to a man, radical ultra Thatcherite Hayekian state reducers, wonks rather than people people who would be genuinely perplexed when taking their policies to their logical conclusion ended in blood on the streets. Hard Brexit is not their obsession but the means to their end - freedom from all limitation and the chaos under which to implement. As with their EU policies, their economics are way beyond anything Thatcher would have contemplated.

I'd suspect, however, there is a social conservative, social liberal divide in their ranks.

TSE's ambitious outriders should beware being in hock to these people, lest the siren call of ultra Thatcherism dashes their premiership on the rocks.

I suspect that the true ERG hardliners would be quite happy to have a Corbyn government which does bankrupt Britain.

They could then build their libertarian pirate island on the ruins with no welfare state etc left as an obstacle.

rottenborough

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

Or we will have a 2nd vote in May/June. Don't book your holidays just yet Mike!

Anazina

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1065002523910656007

I can’t read that story. But if the copy reflects the headline, that could be the beginning of the end for the union.

FrancisUrquhart

Clive Lewis showing again why he got the heave ho from his bbc job, and it was nought to do with his skin colour. The thing is he keeps doing this shit and nothing ever happens to him, he is like boris without the brains or charm or knowledge of ancient history.

JosiasJessop

IanB2 said:

williamglenn said:

Iain Duncan Smith has changed his image.

I remember that on TV years ago; the Naked Civil Servant, wasn't it?

The 'Naked Civil Servant' is perhaps my school's most famous alumni.

Thank God I can say: "I went to Quentin Crisps' school", and not: "I went to IDS' school."

rottenborough

Corbyn is tweeting about Kindertransport tonight. Apparently it inspires and humbles him.

Andy_Cooke

williamglenn said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

No, that's me.

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

Corbyn is tweeting about Kindertransport tonight. Apparently it inspires and humbles him.

I presume that is the name of manhole cover manufacturer?

JosiasJessop

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

" confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

He seems perfectly qualified for PB.

(Or is that just me ...)

You don't talk rubbish, Josias.

(Snip)

I don't know. Mrs J always quotes Harriet Vane's line at me, and says she only married me for the pleasure of hearing me talk piffle.

Because of this, I try to give her intense pleasure every day.

Anazina

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

Yep, that’s my position too. I guess we shall see.

Xenon

Good article outlining why May's deal is terrible and we'd be better off staying in even for people who want Brexit:

https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say-appear-establishment-conspiracy-brexit/

GIN1138

Wish we could see some opinion polling... Those two polls at the weekend which were atrocious enough for Con only covered Wednesday to Thursday last week.

I thought YouGov might have a poll out tonight...

Anazina

williamglenn said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

No, that's me.

PB has been at it’s best these past few days.

TheScreamingEagles

Poll boost for May


https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1065007688235577344?s=21

malcolmg

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1065002523910656007

Cannot be soon enough

kle4

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Let's be serious for a moment:

Adonis is not a politician, or a civil servant or even very important. He's an ivory tower academic with a massive ego who has, throughout his life, confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about, usually with disastrous consequences. He was, for example, the founding figure of City Academies, and the current rail funding model. Essentially, he was a cabinet minister becuase in the dog days of Labour Brown couldn't find anyone vaguely competent willing to serve him, and I believe had more peers in his cabinet than anyone since Baldwin in 1923-24.

Why anyone takes him seriously I do not know.

" confidently talked utter rubbish on a vast range of subjects he knows nothing about,"

He seems perfectly qualified for PB.

(Or is that just me ...)

But unfortunately we don't get paid to do so

We peddle nonsense in a wholesome, artisanal way, like our grandfathers and their grandfathers before them. Not like these cynical, professional politicians and their wannabes.

kle4

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

Presumably some news means merely than remain is inevitable, without the need for a referendum.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll boost for May

A week ago 33 per cent of voters backed Mrs May staying in her post and 47 per cent wanted her to go, a YouGov poll for The Times showed. Now 46 per cent say that she should stay and 34 per cent want her to stand down.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/voters-rally-behind-theresa-may-as-rees-mogg-coup-attempt-stalls-3xxbnwsct

kle4

AlastairMeeks said:

FWIW I think a hard leave is marginally more likely than a hard remain if the public is asked. In a sane world neither side would risk it.

If only we lived in one

kle4

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

People have been saying it is a humiliation and capitulation. How do they roll back from that? Because the number on record opposing it is too high, so it's not even a question of firming up the undecideds.

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

GIN1138

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Voting intention?

Wulfrun_Phil

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

Reality check: Even with Conservatives fully supportive of the whips, TMay has already lost her ability to get routine legislation through the Commons, as evidenced tonight by being forced to accept Labour amendments to the Finance Bill. Her deal doesn't have a chance in hell.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1065012766384291841

Anazina

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Not surprised. At a weekend party in the Tory shires. The wealthy Labourites I was staying with all backer May as the best option. “She’s a fighter”, “she’s actually sane”, “at least she wants the country to be okay”. I thought, “hmm”.

Anazina

Anazina said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Not surprised. At a weekend party in the Tory shires. The wealthy Labourites I was staying with all backed May as the best option. “She’s a fighter”, “she’s actually sane”, “at least she wants the country to be okay”. I thought, “hmm”.

dixiedean

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.

TheScreamingEagles

The poll also shows that Mrs May’s fortunes have most improved among Tory voters. A week ago, 43 per cent who voted Conservative in the 2017 general election said that they wanted her to stand down. Now only 27 per cent want her to resign. The proportion of 2016 Leave voters who want her to resign has dropped from 55 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent now.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1065012766384291841

Biggest rise in support from Lib-Dems, the biggest party of Remain in the country.

Says it all....

kle4

Xenon said:

Good article outlining why May's deal is terrible and we'd be better off staying in even for people who want Brexit:

https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say-appear-establishment-conspiracy-brexit/

I have to say I'm with it most of the way, but I always laugh when people complain about Cabinet's being 'bounced' or manipulated in supporting the PM's plans. Whether you think it a good plan or not, I don't know that crying about how the poor Cabinet members have been forced into things (none of them have, they could always quit, and plenty have) is the way to go.

Interesting it states no brexit will save us money.

I do feel its conclusions don't really match the overall tone of the piece. It talks about this vast, ruthlessly and successfully executed con job to make a proper Brexit unattainable and prepare us for a return to the EU, in 2022, but ends by assuming that if we simply don't go in the first place, there will be a landslide for proper leaving in 2022.

Also, how is the government to be forced into the action the piece says is necessary. If hundreds of MPs in the Tories support the deal, albeit not enough to pass it, why would they support an action diametrically opposed to the deal? Yes no deal is default, and it acknowledges the threat May has made about no brexit and that people should not be put off by it, which is only right and proper, people should do whatever they think is right after all, but if hundreds support this deal, and hundreds more support a theoretical new deal (to include Labour after all) why pretend the hard leave preparations will be positively passed, or ignore that actions may be taken to prevent it?

Anazina

dixiedean said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.

It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1064960152032276481

RobD

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1065012766384291841

Biggest rise in support from Lib-Dems, the biggest party of Remain in the country.

Says it all....

That sort of increase means about three extra people in the entire country think May should stay.

kle4

dixiedean said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory.

Voting intention is, I suspect, not at the forefront of her mind right now so I doubt she would mind that. Sucks for the next leader, but if enough MPs believe this deal is best for the country, then it doesn't really matter if people are not more or less likely to vote Tory.

AndyJS

WTI crude down to just $53. That's about £42.

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

The poll also shows that Mrs May’s fortunes have most improved among Tory voters. A week ago, 43 per cent who voted Conservative in the 2017 general election said that they wanted her to stand down. Now only 27 per cent want her to resign. The proportion of 2016 Leave voters who want her to resign has dropped from 55 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent now.

What was it the week before last?

Richard_Nabavi

dixiedean said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.

Her rivals are the same as they were a week ago. Such a huge change in a week must mean that voters basically support her approach rather than supporting those who have spent the week trying to trash it.

kle4

Anazina said:

dixiedean said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.

It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.

They haven't though. Plenty of people would still choose it, and a majority of MPs are, despite what they may hollowly claim, happy to risk it even if they do not want it.

They do appear to have made a misstep though. The leadership trigger has been half pulled for awhile, and will probably still come through at some point, but despite their attempts to counter spin they really did give the impression it was imminently on, and they were just plain wrong about that. Silly boys.

kle4

Wulfrun_Phil said:

MikeSmithson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.

The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic

Reality check: Even with Conservatives fully supportive of the whips, TMay has already lost her ability to get routine legislation through the Commons, as evidenced tonight by being forced to accept Labour amendments to the Finance Bill. Her deal doesn't have a chance in hell.

He might be in the camp assuming it will pass on a second run through.

AndyJS

Anazina said:

dixiedean said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.

It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.

Does anyone have a clue how much support hard brexit has in the country?

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The poll also shows that Mrs May’s fortunes have most improved among Tory voters. A week ago, 43 per cent who voted Conservative in the 2017 general election said that they wanted her to stand down. Now only 27 per cent want her to resign. The proportion of 2016 Leave voters who want her to resign has dropped from 55 per cent a week ago to 39 per cent now.

What was it the week before last?

Article doesn't say.

We'll have to wait for the tables.

kle4

welshowl said:

williamglenn said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Doesn't Adonis claim that every item of political news means a second referendum is inevitable?

No, that's me.

We are to assume you are not one and the same then?

William has a sense of humour that Adonis appears to utterly lack.

AndyJS

Ken Clarke on Newsnight. He should have become Tory leader in 1997 but 36 year-old William Hague messed that up.

Harris_Tweed

Richard_Nabavi said:

dixiedean said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1065011765564661761

Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.

Her rivals are the same as they were a week ago. Such a huge change in a week must mean that voters basically support her approach rather than supporting those who have spent the week trying to trash it.

Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.

* also applies to referendum votes

Richard_Nabavi

Seems to me that a lot of ferrets are going to be doing U-turns in the next couple of weeks.... Mike is right, it's looking as though the PM has a chance of bringing this off.