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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More and more punters are putting their money on a second refe

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More and more punters are putting their money on a second referendum happening

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  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    First
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,140
    Second, like a gentleman.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018
    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    It's coming. Get ready ERG, time to see how much you want any Brexit.
  • "Giving the response so far from parliamentarians to the brexit deal the chances are that this might get voted down by MPs and if so then what?"

    Mike does this mean that your own opinion about the likely outcome has changed over a very short space of time? Two threads or so ago you were confidently asserting that the deal would be voted through.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Scott_P said:
    That sounds...incredibly problematic for May unless she is very very lucky. Because either she has had to trade something away in order to gain something, which proves that Labour and others are right to hold out for an even better deal they claim, however realistically, that they could get, or she has had to give something away without even gaining something (or at least not something she will get credit for getting).

    Ideally for her she gets something for nothing much at all, but not sure why the EU negotiators would ever do that.
  • It is becoming inevitable and ERG have only themselves to blame. Overstretched
  • GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
  • Second, like a gentleman.

    Indeed and I am old enough to remember when my dear late father always took off his hat as he greeted a lady
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,488
    Calling a referendum is within the realms of possibilities, but so to is a repeat of the wrong result. It didn't help Cameron's career.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds...incredibly problematic for May unless she is very very lucky. Because either she has had to trade something away in order to gain something, which proves that Labour and others are right to hold out for an even better deal they claim, however realistically, that they could get, or she has had to give something away without even gaining something (or at least not something she will get credit for getting).

    Ideally for her she gets something for nothing much at all, but not sure why the EU negotiators would ever do that.
    Speculation is inevitable. I believe it is prudent to wait and see
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
    I actually agree with your last paragraph
  • One big question I have is about this is: Assume her problem is that she doesn't have enough votes for her deal, and she tacks on a referendum to add opposition votes. Also assume she does this without her party firing her and replacing her with a pack of Werthers Original or whatever. How many Con votes does she lose from the other end because MPs who would have voted for the deal won't vote for Deal+Referendum?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 46,454
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    So get rid of her...

    Oh, wait, they couldn't even do that. All the rest of their manifesto is equally undeliverable. They are a busted flush
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    Second, like a gentleman.

    Indeed and I am old enough to remember when my dear late father always took off his hat as he greeted a lady
    Is that a euphemism, Big G?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,474
    From last thread ...hope this works

    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm still not decided as to whether I'll support a people's vote or not. I'll carefully tot the counts from the crunch vote in parliament. If it's hard brexiteer intransigence then sure, and I'll probably vote to remain. If the hard remainers end up blocking it then I'll strongly consider a leave vote if there is a second ref.
    In short, I will not reward whichever bunch of dickheads blocks the deal. I expect Tories to vote with the Gov't.

    It seems likely that both bunches of dickheads will torpedo the deal.
    I think May's deal (perhaps with some token fettling) will get through Parliament. Is there a market on this other than Brexit day? I am not sure that is straightforward, as a couple of weeks delay for ratification may be needed.
    Interesting interview with Nick Boles. He thought it wouldn't. Neither did he think they would get rid of Mrs M. He though Labour would cook up their own deal and that wouldn't get through either. He thought there was a remote possibility Labour might change its mind on a second referendum but he also thought that unlikely.

    Unfortunately I missed the end!
    Not sure there is one !!!!!
    At the end of the interview on R4 he seemed to forecast a deal giving similar terms to Norway but adding a CU, i.e. to solve the Irish border. I still don't quite see how the UK can be in EFTA = *Free Trade* and in a CU but no doubt there's a way.

    It sounds like about 65% in, 35% out, i.e. based on Peter Hitchens' description of Norway's situation as half in, half out. I fail to see the point of being 35% out as it loses us control over EU decision-making. We don't have the wealth of Norway or Switzerland which can afford to loftily stand aside and chuck the EU a few billion S.Fr or N.Kr/yr.
    The political point is to fulfil the letter of the referendum vote whilst minimising the negative impact on the country.
    Yes, but, looking back, the UK set up EFTA in 1960. Within 5 years it had dumped EFTA and wanted full EEC membership in the national economic interest. Harold Wilson and Ted Heath agreed on the need for it, even though they were respectively a Euro-pragmatist and an idealist.

    So if we partly leave, how long until the UK rejoins?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
    There is a lot of over optimism there. The chances don't look terrible, but a lot of it still seems to boil down to 'It has to be this way, because I want it to be that way'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    So get rid of her...

    Oh, wait, they couldn't even do that. All the rest of their manifesto is equally undeliverable. They are a busted flush
    Well I said they should get rid of Theresa in June 2017 and have a new election with a new leader on a new manifesto in Autumn 2017 as this Parliament wasn't viable especially with the task they were trying to do (Brexit) so don't blame me. So there! :D
  • ydoethur said:

    Second, like a gentleman.

    Indeed and I am old enough to remember when my dear late father always took off his hat as he greeted a lady
    Is that a euphemism, Big G?
    I am not sure to be honest but those days were ones of respect and courtesy. Indeed my Father never swore so maybe that is why I do not like unnecessary language
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760
    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

  • "Giving the response so far from parliamentarians to the brexit deal the chances are that this might get voted down by MPs and if so then what?"

    Mike does this mean that your own opinion about the likely outcome has changed over a very short space of time? Two threads or so ago you were confidently asserting that the deal would be voted through.

    I've got no money on this and am not tempted.

    TMay has overcome many seemingly impossible hurdles over the past 18 months that I wouldn't be surprised to see this go through. What she is not going to allow is a no deal Brexit with all the uncertainties that that entails.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
    There is a lot of over optimism there. The chances don't look terrible, but a lot of it still seems to boil down to 'It has to be this way, because I want it to be that way'
    I'm not "optimistic" at all. But we'll have to see...
  • One big question I have is about this is: Assume her problem is that she doesn't have enough votes for her deal, and she tacks on a referendum to add opposition votes. Also assume she does this without her party firing her and replacing her with a pack of Werthers Original or whatever. How many Con votes does she lose from the other end because MPs who would have voted for the deal won't vote for Deal+Referendum?

    The referendum will come almost certainly from an amendment at the time of the meaningful vote. It will be voted on and if it falls it is between deal or no deal. If it passes and then the meaningful vote passes with the amendment then second referendum it is. TM has no direct role in posting the amendment
  • Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 407
    FPT:

    Hello again everyone.

    For what it's worth, I think BenPointer has got it about right. The path to Brexit has been a long list of times people said "This next bit can't be done" followed almost universally by it being done, the news cycle forgetting about the earlier insurmountable obstacle, and replacing it with another. Getting DEAL through Parliament will be another example.

    It will pass. The ERG rebels will complain about it even as they are trooping into the Aye lobby alongside the DUP, and there will be about 40 LAB abstentions. The BBC News had a shot of Julian Smith being shot a question as he got out of a cab yesterday and he looked supremely confident, even for a chap who clearly has a bit of a resting smug face. He's got enough CON leavers and remainers onside and he knows it.

    But let's say I'm wrong. If Parliament votes it down the choices are, in order of Govt preference, repeated Parliamentary vote on a tweaked deal, new PM, second Referendum and GE. If it gets as far as a second referendum, DEAL wins it easily. It is better than no deal and it's better than remain (which you will remember will not be a 'Cameron-reformed' remain, but a remain with further political integration, no migration brake and no red tape bonfire).

    So why all the quitting cabinet and overworking Graham Brady's postie from the arch leavers? I think it's partly theatre to shape the political agreement that is part of DEAL, and partly positioning for the next CON leader. Whether May goes immediately after B-Day or later, there's going to be an opening for a dyed-in-the-wool Leaver to run to replace her. My book says they will lose to the Hunt/Gove dream ticket, of course, but you don't get a job you don't apply for.

    And thank you all for your contributions over the past months. I have been reading occasionally, even if work, stuff and my new daughter have kept me from chipping in.
  • Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    It appears that France and Spain, have come up with last minute demands. Barnier clearly did not have all his ducks in a line.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528
    edited November 2018

    Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
    The Tom Newton-Dunn tweet below says there could be a new WA, So if he is correct the WA has been put back on the table.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832

    Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
    TND is tweeting there could be a "new draft withdrawal agreement" ?

  • eekeek Posts: 3,874
    Drutt said:

    FPT:

    Hello again everyone.

    For what it's worth, I think BenPointer has got it about right. The path to Brexit has been a long list of times people said "This next bit can't be done" followed almost universally by it being done, the news cycle forgetting about the earlier insurmountable obstacle, and replacing it with another. Getting DEAL through Parliament will be another example.

    It will pass. The ERG rebels will complain about it even as they are trooping into the Aye lobby alongside the DUP, and there will be about 40 LAB abstentions. The BBC News had a shot of Julian Smith being shot a question as he got out of a cab yesterday and he looked supremely confident, even for a chap who clearly has a bit of a resting smug face. He's got enough CON leavers and remainers onside and he knows it.

    But let's say I'm wrong. If Parliament votes it down the choices are, in order of Govt preference, repeated Parliamentary vote on a tweaked deal, new PM, second Referendum and GE. If it gets as far as a second referendum, DEAL wins it easily. It is better than no deal and it's better than remain (which you will remember will not be a 'Cameron-reformed' remain, but a remain with further political integration, no migration brake and no red tape bonfire).

    So why all the quitting cabinet and overworking Graham Brady's postie from the arch leavers? I think it's partly theatre to shape the political agreement that is part of DEAL, and partly positioning for the next CON leader. Whether May goes immediately after B-Day or later, there's going to be an opening for a dyed-in-the-wool Leaver to run to replace her. My book says they will lose to the Hunt/Gove dream ticket, of course, but you don't get a job you don't apply for.

    And thank you all for your contributions over the past months. I have been reading occasionally, even if work, stuff and my new daughter have kept me from chipping in.

    Equally the easiest way to ensure you get a decent job in the next cabinet is to apply for the job and show that people in the party trust your opinion...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds...incredibly problematic for May unless she is very very lucky. Because either she has had to trade something away in order to gain something, which proves that Labour and others are right to hold out for an even better deal they claim, however realistically, that they could get, or she has had to give something away without even gaining something (or at least not something she will get credit for getting).

    Ideally for her she gets something for nothing much at all, but not sure why the EU negotiators would ever do that.
    Speculation is inevitable. I believe it is prudent to wait and see
    Well obviously it is, but this is political speculation.com after all, I'd have nothing to write about.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    edited November 2018

    Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
    The Tom Newton-Dunn tweet below says there could be a new WA, So if he is correct the WA has been put back on the table.
    Not as far as the news 30 mins ago. The WDA is not up for amendment
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Let us give thanks for this deal.
    image.
  • One big question I have is about this is: Assume her problem is that she doesn't have enough votes for her deal, and she tacks on a referendum to add opposition votes. Also assume she does this without her party firing her and replacing her with a pack of Werthers Original or whatever. How many Con votes does she lose from the other end because MPs who would have voted for the deal won't vote for Deal+Referendum?

    The referendum will come almost certainly from an amendment at the time of the meaningful vote. It will be voted on and if it falls it is between deal or no deal. If it passes and then the meaningful vote passes with the amendment then second referendum it is. TM has no direct role in posting the amendment
    I don't think there's any sign that Labour would vote in large numbers for such a thing, is there? And most Tories won't unless whipped. In which case I don't see how the amendment has the numbers.

    The way I can see it happening is TMay being a bit more involved, eg:

    a) Parliament votes on the deal and it fails, she tries again with Deal+Referendum
    b) Parliament looks like it will pass, she says to the ERG/DUP, "there are two ways I can pass this thing, with you or with a referendum" and decide to try their luck.

    But aside from the mechanics of how you get to the vote, which has more votes in Parliament, Deal or Deal+Referendum?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
    The Tom Newton-Dunn tweet below says there could be a new WA, So if he is correct the WA has been put back on the table.

    Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
    The Tom Newton-Dunn tweet below says there could be a new WA, So if he is correct the WA has been put back on the table.
    Not as far as the news 30 mins ago. The WDA is not up for amendment
    Ah, but speculation is inevitable. Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Are we not often told that the EU loves a fudge and last minute solutions, and many on their side and oodles on our side want to reopen it. That may not be sensible or viable, but with so many wanting it a way may be found.

    Good night all.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,967
    Lloyds bank share price so far seems unaffected by Noel Edmonds' arrival in the jungle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Let us give thanks for this deal.
    image.

    So Hunt is even more gutless than the gutless five, not willing to go but unwilling to even take the ridiculous stance of openly opposing it from within Cabinet, relying on leaks. Good to know, we can hope he has even less chance of becoming the next leader than he already did.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528
    As long as he publishes all the calcs and assumptions I agree, but his track record on this is not good.
  • One big question I have is about this is: Assume her problem is that she doesn't have enough votes for her deal, and she tacks on a referendum to add opposition votes. Also assume she does this without her party firing her and replacing her with a pack of Werthers Original or whatever. How many Con votes does she lose from the other end because MPs who would have voted for the deal won't vote for Deal+Referendum?

    The referendum will come almost certainly from an amendment at the time of the meaningful vote. It will be voted on and if it falls it is between deal or no deal. If it passes and then the meaningful vote passes with the amendment then second referendum it is. TM has no direct role in posting the amendment
    I don't think there's any sign that Labour would vote in large numbers for such a thing, is there? And most Tories won't unless whipped. In which case I don't see how the amendment has the numbers.

    The way I can see it happening is TMay being a bit more involved, eg:

    a) Parliament votes on the deal and it fails, she tries again with Deal+Referendum
    b) Parliament looks like it will pass, she says to the ERG/DUP, "there are two ways I can pass this thing, with you or with a referendum" and decide to try their luck.

    But aside from the mechanics of how you get to the vote, which has more votes in Parliament, Deal or Deal+Referendum?
    As explained - in your a) example the referendum comes before the deal in the meanimgful vote. It either falls or passes
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,676
    Summit could be called off. Germany and France not on same page I hear. What a disaster for May if #EUCO is cancelled

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted Bruno Waterfield
    Uh oh....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,676
    Strong and Stable

    Like a Pound Shop Table
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018

    Summit could be called off. Germany and France not on same page I hear. What a disaster for May if #EUCO is cancelled

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted Bruno Waterfield
    Uh oh....

    At this point if May was Donald she'd put out a tweet telling the EU/Germany/France that while their fighting like ferrets in a sack we're going to ramp up "no deal" preparations and when you've got yourselves sorted out and your ready to talk we'll talk....
  • Summit could be called off. Germany and France not on same page I hear. What a disaster for May if #EUCO is cancelled

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted Bruno Waterfield
    Uh oh....

    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other
    kle4 said:

    Let us give thanks for this deal.
    image.

    So Hunt is even more gutless than the gutless five, not willing to go but unwilling to even take the ridiculous stance of openly opposing it from within Cabinet, relying on leaks. Good to know, we can hope he has even less chance of becoming the next leader than he already did.
    My reservation with this is that the Telegrap is ERG and Boris sabotage the deal paper.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
    Absurd.

    Even if she goes down, May has earned respect for her resilience in trying to work through the most horrendous inheritance after Cameron did a bunk.

    Whereas every single leading Brexiter comes out of the past two years with their reputation diminished; indeed most of them have made tits of themselves one way or another.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,528
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
    Absurd.

    Even if she goes down, May has earned respect for her resilience in trying to work through the most horrendous inheritance after Cameron did a bunk.

    Whereas every single leading Brexiter comes out of the past two years with their reputation diminished; indeed most of them have made tits of themselves one way or another.
    It was not an inheritance. She applied for the job in the full knowledge of what was required.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,671

    Summit could be called off. Germany and France not on same page I hear. What a disaster for May if #EUCO is cancelled

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted Bruno Waterfield
    Uh oh....

    The worst part is that Macron has come to the table to get a deal done, but Merkel has decided to go off in a huff. It really does show how power in Europe has shifted since the migrant crisis.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
  • GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Have we heard what Theresa's given away this time?

    Crown Jewels? Buckingham Palace? Gibralter?

    Sadly, ERG are giving away brexit. Ironic
    Theresa May and the Remain establishment have sabotaged Brexit.

    Maybe the British people will save it in the next referendum? I don't think it'll be the "gimme" for Remain that the establishment think but we'll see...
    Absurd.

    Even if she goes down, May has earned respect for her resilience in trying to work through the most horrendous inheritance after Cameron did a bunk.

    Whereas every single leading Brexiter comes out of the past two years with their reputation diminished; indeed most of them have made tits of themselves one way or another.
    It was not an inheritance. She applied for the job in the full knowledge of what was required.
    Fine, but my point stands.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    +1

    I worry for the parallel universes where Boris and JRM are in charge.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,880

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Big G. I wonder if TM imagines you out there. She does not deserve you. Time and time again defending her, no matter what.

    I fear the country isn’t quite as keen on her as you think, but that shouldn’t stop you.
  • One big question I have is about this is: Assume her problem is that she doesn't have enough votes for her deal, and she tacks on a referendum to add opposition votes. Also assume she does this without her party firing her and replacing her with a pack of Werthers Original or whatever. How many Con votes does she lose from the other end because MPs who would have voted for the deal won't vote for Deal+Referendum?

    The referendum will come almost certainly from an amendment at the time of the meaningful vote. It will be voted on and if it falls it is between deal or no deal. If it passes and then the meaningful vote passes with the amendment then second referendum it is. TM has no direct role in posting the amendment
    I don't think there's any sign that Labour would vote in large numbers for such a thing, is there? And most Tories won't unless whipped. In which case I don't see how the amendment has the numbers.

    The way I can see it happening is TMay being a bit more involved, eg:

    a) Parliament votes on the deal and it fails, she tries again with Deal+Referendum
    b) Parliament looks like it will pass, she says to the ERG/DUP, "there are two ways I can pass this thing, with you or with a referendum" and decide to try their luck.

    But aside from the mechanics of how you get to the vote, which has more votes in Parliament, Deal or Deal+Referendum?
    As explained - in your a) example the referendum comes before the deal in the meanimgful vote. It either falls or passes
    How do you get a majority to pass the amendment if TMay is opposed? Even if Corbyn supports it, which I don't think he would, and nearly all the Labour MPs followed him, which they definitely wouldn't, it doesn't feel like there are enough pro-referendum Cons, does it?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,613
    Jonathan said:

    I fear the country isn’t quite as keen on her as you think, but that shouldn’t stop you.

    It's all relative ..... and the alternatives are Corbyn or Mogg's merry band of arsonists.
  • Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Big G. I wonder if TM imagines you out there. She does not deserve you. Time and time again defending her, no matter what.

    I fear the country isn’t quite as keen on her as you think, but that shouldn’t stop you.
    47 % back her on this and women voters are a growing support for her.

    On this she is the only one with the knowlede and ability to deal with it

    However, post march 19 I expect her to allow a leadership election and stand down after it. Indeed I hope she does it for her own sanity
  • GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?

  • TMay has overcome many seemingly impossible hurdles over the past 18 months that I wouldn't be surprised to see this go through. What she is not going to allow is a no deal Brexit with all the uncertainties that that entails.

    The uncertainties may be significant, but they might well last for less time under a no deal Brexit. Her deal bakes in uncertainty.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    GIN1138 said:

    Summit could be called off. Germany and France not on same page I hear. What a disaster for May if #EUCO is cancelled

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted Bruno Waterfield
    Uh oh....

    At this point if May was Donald she'd put out a tweet telling the EU/Germany/France that while their fighting like ferrets in a sack we're going to ramp up "no deal" preparations and when you've got yourselves sorted out and your ready to talk we'll talk....
    If May was Donald, Corbyn would be PM after last year's election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Especially if it emerges Macron is still trying to engineer a No Deal crash-out Brexit for the UK....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581
    edited November 2018


    TMay has overcome many seemingly impossible hurdles over the past 18 months that I wouldn't be surprised to see this go through. What she is not going to allow is a no deal Brexit with all the uncertainties that that entails.

    The uncertainties may be significant, but they might well last for less time under a no deal Brexit. Her deal bakes in uncertainty.

    Nevertheless it is fairly clear from recent statements that Mike is right. If you recall, it is effectively what she promised Nissan (and surely others) right back at the beginning.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,366
    edited November 2018

    One big question I have is about this is: Assume her problem is that she doesn't have enough votes for her deal, and she tacks on a referendum to add opposition votes. Also assume she does this without her party firing her and replacing her with a pack of Werthers Original or whatever. How many Con votes does she lose from the other end because MPs who would have voted for the deal won't vote for Deal+Referendum?

    The referendum will come almost certainly from an amendment at the time of the meaningful vote. It will be voted on and if it falls it is between deal or no deal. If it passes and then the meaningful vote passes with the amendment then second referendum it is. TM has no direct role in posting the amendment
    I don't think there's any sign that Labour would vote in large numbers for such a thing, is there? And most Tories won't unless whipped. In which case I don't see how the amendment has the numbers.

    The way I can see it happening is TMay being a bit more involved, eg:

    a) Parliament votes on the deal and it fails, she tries again with Deal+Referendum
    b) Parliament looks like it will pass, she says to the ERG/DUP, "there are two ways I can pass this thing, with you or with a referendum" and decide to try their luck.

    But aside from the mechanics of how you get to the vote, which has more votes in Parliament, Deal or Deal+Referendum?
    As explained - in your a) example the referendum comes before the deal in the meanimgful vote. It either falls or passes
    How do you get a majority to pass the amendment if TMay is opposed? Even if Corbyn supports it, which I don't think he would, and nearly all the Labour MPs followed him, which they definitely wouldn't, it doesn't feel like there are enough pro-referendum Cons, does it?
    You seem to confuse the process. Amendments will be put forward across the house and the speaker will decide which to accept. They will be taken in sequence and you can bet one of them will be for a referendum. TM does not need to do anything other than vote on it. I do not believe it would pass but who knows
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,880

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Big G. I wonder if TM imagines you out there. She does not deserve you. Time and time again defending her, no matter what.

    I fear the country isn’t quite as keen on her as you think, but that shouldn’t stop you.
    47 % back her on this and women voters are a growing support for her.

    On this she is the only one with the knowlede and ability to deal with it

    However, post march 19 I expect her to allow a leadership election and stand down after it. Indeed I hope she does it for her own sanity
    Like most senior pols, her sanity clearly went a long, long time ago. She is lucky to have your support, she really does not deserve you.
  • GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,535

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    + 1 Most of the people I know wish she was not doing Brexit at all. It is an utter shambles and I suppose we have to go through this rigmarole to please the nut cases and anti - European fanatics. A point must come when the political class realise that it is simply not going to be deliverable. That will be the interesting crunch!
  • Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,880

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    Is that because people like her, or because people feel sorry for her?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    Moving towards supporting May's deal.

    What could it all mean?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,535

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    I think the incumbent always has the advantage over challengers in this context. People collectively seem to be poor at imagining other people in the same role and being able to perform. For all we know half the cabinet may be better at the role of PM but that is just supposition.
  • Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    No one else has a clue. Not that he is much better
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018
    If the logic in the thread header is correct, and if the EU Commission wish Britain to remain in the fold, then all they have to do to move Britain to a third referendum - the next stage in the path towards Remaining - is screw the draft agreement (what the media and an Oxford professor call a "deal"), which shouldn't be difficult if the will is there.

    Theresa May can then give Andrea Leadsom the boot when she gets back, because letting an ERG member stay as Leader of the House doesn't fit with the programme.

    Of course if the Commission would rather see the back of Britain, then Jean-Claude Juncker can come out smiling alongside Theresa May, let her hold his hand as she did Donald Trump's, and say what a great "deal" he's just agreed with her.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Floater said:

    Hang on - I thought we were told this was a done deal?

    The WA is done, but it is accompanied be a statement on the future partnership, which is currently being agreed.
    TND is tweeting there could be a "new draft withdrawal agreement" ?

    stress on teh second part. The WA includes/refers to (whatever you want to call it) the outline Future Partnership document. V unlikely any substantive changes to the WA itself as it has been agreed (ish)
  • Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    Moving towards supporting May's deal.

    What could it all mean?
    Lab support the WA deal. It passes.

    DUP go ballistic.


    Lab call VoNC and it passes?

    GE.
  • Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    Is that because people like her, or because people feel sorry for her?
    Probably both
  • Did I miss something (I have been out all day)?

    Raab has drifted out to 11.5
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,215
    @rcs1000 - thanks for your last video. Great stuff.
  • Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    Moving towards supporting May's deal.

    What could it all mean?
    Lab support the WA deal. It passes.

    DUP go ballistic.


    Lab call VoNC and it passes?

    GE.
    Not necessarily
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145

    Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    Moving towards supporting May's deal.

    What could it all mean?
    Lab support the WA deal. It passes.

    DUP go ballistic.

    Lab call VoNC and it passes?

    GE.
    This scenario in which the Tories look strong and weak at the same time is crazy enough it could happen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,586
    edited November 2018

    Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    Moving towards supporting May's deal.

    What could it all mean?
    Lab support the WA deal. It passes.

    DUP go ballistic.


    Lab call VoNC and it passes?

    GE.
    Yep, plausible - I suggested as much a couple of days ago. :wink:

    Edit: In such a situation, there would not be time for a full Conservative leadership election...

    Would May stay? Or would a unity candidate crowned leader to fight the GE for the Tories?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    edited November 2018
    Breaking news: GRU head reported dead “after long illness”
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,880

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    Is that because people like her, or because people feel sorry for her?
    Probably both
    She gets away with it because the others are shits and no one is feeling the pain in their pocket yet. If the economy tanks due to Brexit (in whatever failure) the pity might turn into anger.
  • Newsnight. McD again.

    Seems he is doing all the heavy lifting at the moment.

    What could it all mean?

    Moving towards supporting May's deal.

    What could it all mean?
    Lab support the WA deal. It passes.

    DUP go ballistic.


    Lab call VoNC and it passes?

    GE.
    Yep, plausible - I suggested as much a couple of days ago. :wink:
    Anything is possible but it would see the DUP lose one billion still unpaid and have no certainty of any influence in the next Parliament
  • It was so funny this morning when an Irish commentator said that if there was a re-unification vote the Irish would reject it as they do not want the 11 billion annual debt it would involve
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,095
    McDonnell measuring the curtains in No.11.

    And then he woke up.
  • You may not agree with him, but blimey McD is streets ahead of Jezza as a communicator.

    Newsnight missed a trick here, they should have done a full 20 minutes or more.

  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    Is that because people like her, or because people feel sorry for her?
    Probably both
    She gets away with it because the others are shits and no one is feeling the pain in their pocket yet. If the economy tanks due to Brexit (in whatever failure) the pity might turn into anger.
    And if she steers this into remain she wil be greater than Thatcher in remainers eyes
  • The EU really have messed things up with their brain-dead Irish backstop. Not sure how they extricate themselves from the mess TBH.

    Unfortunately, if they can't, we'll be collateral damage. And Ireland even more so, of course. What's the Irish for schadenfreude?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    Johnny Mac very good on Newnight just now I thought...
  • You may not agree with him, but blimey McD is streets ahead of Jezza as a communicator.

    Newsnight missed a trick here, they should have done a full 20 minutes or more.

    He is a wolf in sheeps clothing
  • Time to go

    Have a good nights rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,725
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Johnny Mac very good on Newnight just now I thought...

    Did he explain how his proposed policy of obstructing UK legislation for preparing for Brexit will magically make Brexit not happen?
  • eekeek Posts: 3,874

    The EU really have messed things up with their brain-dead Irish backstop. Not sure how they extricate themselves from the mess TBH.

    Unfortunately, if they can't, we'll be collateral damage. And Ireland even more so, of course. What's the Irish for schadenfreude?

    Feck?
  • These will be the rebels who can't count 48?


  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,535

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    Is that because people like her, or because people feel sorry for her?
    Probably both
    She gets away with it because the others are shits and no one is feeling the pain in their pocket yet. If the economy tanks due to Brexit (in whatever failure) the pity might turn into anger.
    And if she steers this into remain she wil be greater than Thatcher in remainers eyes
    + 1 Billion!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,061

    McDonnell measuring the curtains in No.11.

    And then he woke up.

    No, he said that when he is elected and takes up being CoE, that he will live in his current house in Hayes, and just use number 11 as an office.

    Not sure how the security people will feel about that, but it is his plan.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666

    The EU really have messed things up with their brain-dead Irish backstop. Not sure how they extricate themselves from the mess TBH.

    Unfortunately, if they can't, we'll be collateral damage. And Ireland even more so, of course. What's the Irish for schadenfreude?

    I don't think the EU messed up. Your lot did.



  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:



    The opinion is that this would not harm TM if the EU start fighting each other

    I agree with you there Big G.

    The EU's "solidarity" crumbling at this late hour could be the best news May's had for a year... But she'd have to know how to play it and she probably doesn't...
    Give her a break. The Country only want TM doing this - no one else comes near
    Don't much of the country wish she wasn't doing it at all?
    That is not the point. No one is near to her in voter approval for brexit
    Is that because people like her, or because people feel sorry for her?
    Probably both
    She gets away with it because the others are shits and no one is feeling the pain in their pocket yet. If the economy tanks due to Brexit (in whatever failure) the pity might turn into anger.
    And if she steers this into remain she wil be greater than Thatcher in remainers eyes
    + 1 Billion!
    It is not impossible - indeed it is looking more likely day by day
  • You may not agree with him, but blimey McD is streets ahead of Jezza as a communicator.

    Newsnight missed a trick here, they should have done a full 20 minutes or more.

    He is a wolf in sheeps clothing
    Indeed. But he is a clever wolf. Far cleverer than just about anyone else they put up for interview (Burgon, Abbott, Long-Bailey, Smith, Butler etc etc).

    NB: Notice how he bigged up, and I mean bigged up, Angela Rayner. She is 'Nye Bevan". Very glad I am green on her as next leader...
This discussion has been closed.