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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile the approval rating of the EU leadership by UK voter

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    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.

    We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.

    If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.

    Ummm: what part of Justice do we lose control of?

    The UK recognising the ECJ's decisions in Single Market issues is not a big deal. This isn't them getting to choose who gets to vote in UK elections, it's what exactly constitutes wire mesh.
    Exactly what I’m not getting about the immense backlash.

    This deal is not great, not least because of the sequencing and our failure to engage with the possibility of no deal. But the elements to which people object don’t seem to make logical sense.
    I think it's because people are focussing myopically on the transition, which will last an absolute maximum of 45 months, and not seeing the long term wood for those short term trees.
    They’re seeing the long term with crystal clarity: a dominant, powerful EU on our doorstep that we will have no say in.
    I want no say in the EU. I am quite content for them to rule themselves as they see fit. Has Remainerdom become a home for unrequited Imperialists?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828

    The idealistic Leavers form a particularly tight social, media and political group, heavily centred in London.

    I suspect there's a lot of peer influencing/pressure going on.

    I thought London was the stronghold of the "metropolitan liberal elite" who voted REMAIN and were undone by provincial "middle" England in June 2016.

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    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
  • Options
    stodge said:

    It will be interesting how the media coverage, the weekend media blitz at the council on sunday, the comments by EU leaders, public opinion, and the influence of constituency chairman play out

    We have already had the DUP core vote farmers furious with them and the Scottish Fishermens Association backing. Tonight the CBI have endorsed it. No doubt other businesses will come out including the car and aerospace industry

    The holiday business which has seen frozen 2019 bookings will surely endorse it together with continuation of EHIC. The european residents here and ours in the EU guaranteed rights. And much more

    And so the mps throw all this away as they play their extreme games

    I am certain of one thing , they will not blame TM

    Apparently elements within the CBI aren't so enamoured of Theresa's Deal as you think:

    http://www.cityam.com/269590/its-not-good-deal-internal-emails-reveal-cbi-doubts-over

    By the way, from a strongly pro-business newspaper, this take on the Withdrawal Agreement:

    http://www.cityam.com/269526/brexit-brino-10-capitulations-theresa-may
    On the first report the CBI recognise it is not perfect but it is necessary
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
    The final deal depends on who is PM after December. Hopefully not May.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    Regarding Northern Ireland, the more I think about it, the more I think both the UK and the Republic are enormously incentivised to come to a rapid solution. You see, the longer a "dual" status for Northern Ireland exists, the harder it will be, on the ground, to change it.

    Why?

    Well, Northern Ireland is likely to benefit from its dual structure. It will be part of the UK from a tax and employment legislation perspective. And yet will have zero barriers to trade with the rest of the EU. It suddenly looks like exactly where I'd want to set up a business that served both markets. If I were importing goods from - say - Brazil and selling them into both markets, then warehousing them in Belfast suddenly seems like a really good idea.

    In other words, this deal is likely to end up being pretty popular in the Province. (And, ironically, being less popular in the Republic, because - for the first time - there will be an incentive to have your business in the North rather than the South.) Northern Ireland won't want to leave the arrangement.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
    The final deal depends on who is PM after December. Hopefully not May.

    I agree with that but you have to get the deal on the statute. If you want a new leader after march I have no problem with that
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
    I’m not worried. I’m just amused at the desperate face-saving going on.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    edited November 2018
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.

    Similarly tbf most PB Remainers seem to be ok with the Deal as far as I can tell, so I'd suspect the same is secretly true of quite a few Labour MPs.
    But, the ideologues on either side are not. That tells you it's a fair, balanced deal.

    I'd say (from reading the IfG analysis - an absolute must read) the balance of negotiation has ended up about 60% EU and 40% UK in this, and the deal has been clearly anchored around the UK's wishes but consistent with the EU's guidelines too.

    Very, very far from the 100:0 wipeout - either which way - the ideologues would have you believe.
    So you’re happy to throw the DUP under the bus? You realise that when the IfG say trade will not be frictionless it really does mean a border in the Irish Sea?
    The DUP haven't been thrown under a bus. NI stays in a fully independent UK and only aligns with the EU regulations necessary to avoid a hard border, which will become technocratic in time anyway.

    Whenever you fall back and reach for that sort of argument, I know you're struggling.
    Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    I don't think a UK-UK trade deal has ever been particularly likely.
    No, nor do I. Why would we need a deal with ourselves? Even Liam Fox would manage that...
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828


    On the first report the CBI recognise it is not perfect but it is necessary

    I trust the CBI's recognition that the Deal is "necessary to protect jobs and growth" won't be spun by those on the Government side as a ringing endorsement of the Prime Minister and her negotiating skills.

    There's clearly very little enthusiasm for the Deal - there's a recognition that set against the seeming disaster of crashing out without a Deal it keeps business moving and making money and may enable us to continue our anaemic economic growth which a No Deal, according to some, wouldn't.

    My fear is those well disposed toward the Government will seek to spin the fact of a Deal as a political triumph for the Prime Minister - it isn't. If the narrow prevention of a totally avoidable disaster is now the definition of political success, it say very little for May and her Government's performance throughout the negotiating process.

    Any measure of relief should therefore be tempered by the asking of searching questions about what has happened and why it was allowed to happen.
  • Options
    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
    I've always considered you more of a Prince-elector.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
    Interesting group of runners and riders. I'm personally surprised there isn't a woman on the shortlist.
  • Options
    stodge said:


    On the first report the CBI recognise it is not perfect but it is necessary

    I trust the CBI's recognition that the Deal is "necessary to protect jobs and growth" won't be spun by those on the Government side as a ringing endorsement of the Prime Minister and her negotiating skills.

    There's clearly very little enthusiasm for the Deal - there's a recognition that set against the seeming disaster of crashing out without a Deal it keeps business moving and making money and may enable us to continue our anaemic economic growth which a No Deal, according to some, wouldn't.

    My fear is those well disposed toward the Government will seek to spin the fact of a Deal as a political triumph for the Prime Minister - it isn't. If the narrow prevention of a totally avoidable disaster is now the definition of political success, it say very little for May and her Government's performance throughout the negotiating process.

    Any measure of relief should therefore be tempered by the asking of searching questions about what has happened and why it was allowed to happen.
    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214

    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
    I've always considered you more of a Prince-elector.
    I was being shy, diffident and retiring.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    rcs1000 said:

    Regarding Northern Ireland, the more I think about it, the more I think both the UK and the Republic are enormously incentivised to come to a rapid solution. You see, the longer a "dual" status for Northern Ireland exists, the harder it will be, on the ground, to change it.

    Why?

    Well, Northern Ireland is likely to benefit from its dual structure. It will be part of the UK from a tax and employment legislation perspective. And yet will have zero barriers to trade with the rest of the EU. It suddenly looks like exactly where I'd want to set up a business that served both markets. If I were importing goods from - say - Brazil and selling them into both markets, then warehousing them in Belfast suddenly seems like a really good idea.

    In other words, this deal is likely to end up being pretty popular in the Province. (And, ironically, being less popular in the Republic, because - for the first time - there will be an incentive to have your business in the North rather than the South.) Northern Ireland won't want to leave the arrangement.

    There’s an internal contradiction in your argument. It can’t benefit from long-term investment decisions unless it’s a stable arrangement.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    rcs1000 said:

    Regarding Northern Ireland, the more I think about it, the more I think both the UK and the Republic are enormously incentivised to come to a rapid solution. You see, the longer a "dual" status for Northern Ireland exists, the harder it will be, on the ground, to change it.

    Why?

    Well, Northern Ireland is likely to benefit from its dual structure. It will be part of the UK from a tax and employment legislation perspective. And yet will have zero barriers to trade with the rest of the EU. It suddenly looks like exactly where I'd want to set up a business that served both markets. If I were importing goods from - say - Brazil and selling them into both markets, then warehousing them in Belfast suddenly seems like a really good idea.

    In other words, this deal is likely to end up being pretty popular in the Province. (And, ironically, being less popular in the Republic, because - for the first time - there will be an incentive to have your business in the North rather than the South.) Northern Ireland won't want to leave the arrangement.

    There’s an internal contradiction in your argument. It can’t benefit from long-term investment decisions unless it’s a stable arrangement.
    Well, if RCS is right they'll shout themselves horse to keep it...
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828


    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on

    So instead of arguing and persuading you're now hoping people will be so bored and apathetic they'll swallow any old nonsense the Government peddles.



  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    edited November 2018
    stodge said:

    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
    Interesting group of runners and riders. I'm personally surprised there isn't a woman on the shortlist.
    Possibly, but you can't force someone to stand. Who do you think will win? My lips are sealed (though naturally I have a view!), By the way, there's no shortlist - these are the candidates who have put themselves forward for election.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    stodge said:


    On the first report the CBI recognise it is not perfect but it is necessary

    I trust the CBI's recognition that the Deal is "necessary to protect jobs and growth" won't be spun by those on the Government side as a ringing endorsement of the Prime Minister and her negotiating skills.

    There's clearly very little enthusiasm for the Deal - there's a recognition that set against the seeming disaster of crashing out without a Deal it keeps business moving and making money and may enable us to continue our anaemic economic growth which a No Deal, according to some, wouldn't.

    My fear is those well disposed toward the Government will seek to spin the fact of a Deal as a political triumph for the Prime Minister - it isn't. If the narrow prevention of a totally avoidable disaster is now the definition of political success, it say very little for May and her Government's performance throughout the negotiating process.

    Any measure of relief should therefore be tempered by the asking of searching questions about what has happened and why it was allowed to happen.
    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on
    Fat chance of moving on if they're on a Clapham omnibus!
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    Might I suggest you actually read the WA before making such dumb claims.
    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    JohnO said:


    Possibly, but you can't force someone to stand. Who do you think will win? My lips are sealed (though naturally I have a view!)

    I think it's between John Furey and Tim Oliver. It's not going to be an easy job with the ongoing consultation process and the proposed changes to Services which won't be an easy sell. Try telling a local community they are going to lose their Library and see how far you get.

    On that basis, I think Tim Oliver might be the better media presence.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    Might I suggest you actually read the WA before making such dumb claims.
    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
    Is what corbyn said when told to read it....
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    Might I suggest you actually read the WA before making such dumb claims.
    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
    Fine.

    But don't then comment on it.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is May ensuring "No Deal" ?

    When will her deal be voted on? Mid December? Let's say it gets voted down. At that point she resigns as Con leader triggering a leadership contest. But then parliament goes off the Christmas hols and doesn't come back until January so the contest wouldn't really start until January 2019.

    How long would a leadership contest take? Probably at least two months.

    That gets us to March.

    Where's the second referendum coming from before 29th March? :D

    May is not resigning, most likely she will threaten to call EUref2 if she cannot get her Deal through on the second vote. Do not believe what her aides put out tonight to calm Brexiteers.

    May would far rather be PM after Remain in a second EU referendum than resign as PM if she cannot get her Deal through and most MPs would rather EUreg2 than No Deal.

    If we do not get her Deal through Remain after EUref2 looks increasingly likely, hence now May refers to No Brexit at all as an option.but not specifically No Deal
    You talk about May like religious fanatics talk about God- you have some sort of spiritual conduit that lets you know what she's thinking, and it just so happens to always exactly match what you want.
    There are a few saboteurs on here who have hitched themselves to May's wagon as the last, best hope of frustrating the referendum and locking the UK eternally into a BRINO deal, so they feel honour bound to defend her through each an every blunder and lie she makes.
    Actually it is the other way round. It is you useful idiots who are going to make sure we end up staying fully in the EU by scuppering any deal you think is not pure enough. You are the fanatics and you will bring the whole Brexit campaign down with your idiocy. I would accept No Deal any day over Remain but I have no power to make sure that happens and all the arithmetic says that Parliament will ensure the only choice if this deal falls is Remain.
    If this choice is to stay in the EU or leave with the backstop, then I'd rather stay. If we stay we're bound by EU rules but get a say in them. If the backstop kicks in we're bound by EU rules and lose all say. No thanks.
    Might I suggest you actually read the WA before making such dumb claims.
    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
    People are deluding themselves if they think the principle of the backstop will not be perpetuated I’m the long-term relationship.
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    stodge said:


    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on

    So instead of arguing and persuading you're now hoping people will be so bored and apathetic they'll swallow any old nonsense the Government peddles.



    There are a multitude of views but the public have had enough. You hear the cry 'get on with it' - 'they hear TM and the EU have agreed' The polling on this after the weekend will be interesting

    For me this deal fulfils the referendum but if lost we need to remain
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    NEW THREAD

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:


    Fine.

    But don't then comment on it.

    That's an extraordinary comment. It should be possible to produce a version that is neutral, comprehensible and accessible to all sections of the population.

    This is the future of our country with which we are dealing and every effort should be made to ensure people are aware of what is being proposed and understand it. Hiding it behind legalese is as reprehensible as Theresa May saying "Trust Me". People should be able to form their opinions and be presented with a comprehensible analysis.

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    stodge said:

    ydoethur said:


    Fine.

    But don't then comment on it.

    That's an extraordinary comment. It should be possible to produce a version that is neutral, comprehensible and accessible to all sections of the population.

    This is the future of our country with which we are dealing and every effort should be made to ensure people are aware of what is being proposed and understand it. Hiding it behind legalese is as reprehensible as Theresa May saying "Trust Me". People should be able to form their opinions and be presented with a comprehensible analysis.

    It is perfectly comprehensible.

    Anyone merely commenting on it through the prism of their own selected media is simply going to end up embarrassing themselves, as happened here (EU law will not apply to us after we leave).
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    Labour should whip to abstain in the meaningful vote, or even vote for it.

    Once it passes, the DUP will desert, the Tories will tear themselves apart, and a VoNC will pass in the spring. IMHO.

    And then you wake up :)
    Evening Dr P. My yellow pen was busy at the weekend - the Henley on Thames branch.
    Nice - I did that way back in 2011. For me, apart from some rare weekend-only routes in England, and the new Rotherham to Sheffield Tram, I need Ayr to Stranraer, the Cowdenbath Loop, and all of Scotland north of Helensburgh/Balloch/Milngavie/Falkirk/Ladybank/Leuchars.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_Fear said:

    The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.

    For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.

    Exactly.
    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    They don't believe/care about the consequences of no deal, whatever they might claim, and because it is not perfect they are no political benefit to voting for it. Plus the arch remainers. Seems straight forward.
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