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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal on May and Corbyn’s approach to Brexit

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal on May and Corbyn’s approach to Brexit

If you look at the front of forces on the march you tend to find one of three things. Leaders, figureheads, and cannon fodder, and British politics certainly hasn’t been suffering from an excess of leadership recently.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Top thread Corporeal.
  • Oh was that an e pluribus unum?
  • Very good indeed
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157
    edited November 2018
    I'm planning a dramatic 3am intervention Lord Ashcroft 2010 general election night style! :D
  • Very entertaining. I think the scapegoat analogy is one reason why Theresa May is still PM. There remains a lot for her to soak up before she can be tossed aside and a new start declared.

    Was it ever going to end well? I think there was a way, which was to toss the question of what Brexit was back to the people, in the form of a Citizen's Assembly - but perhaps it's unrealistic to expect politicians to cede control in such a way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    Oh was that an e pluribus unum?

    Your are Martin Selmayr and I claim my £5.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    Very witty thread header.

    Too truthful to be satire sadly.
  • Sky paper review tonight involves Isabel Oakshott (ultra leave) and Sonia Sodha (ultra remain) guaranteeing a shouting match. Indeed the broadcasters play this trick all the time. There are plenty of moderates but they do not get a look in compounding the polarisation of the debate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    Good piece.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993

    Sky paper review tonight involves Isabel Oakshott (ultra leave) and Sonia Sodha (ultra remain) guaranteeing a shouting match. Indeed the broadcasters play this trick all the time. There are plenty of moderates but they do not get a look in compounding the polarisation of the debate

    The moderates are desperately underrepresented amongst the talking heads on TV.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,000
    edited November 2018

    Sky paper review tonight involves Isabel Oakshott (ultra leave) and Sonia Sodha (ultra remain) guaranteeing a shouting match. Indeed the broadcasters play this trick all the time. There are plenty of moderates but they do not get a look in compounding the polarisation of the debate

    Is equivalent of Clickbait. It is a horrid trend imported from US news channels that always end in a load of talking heads shouting over one another, which is supposedly entertaining.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,274
    Great article, enjoyed it.

    As you say, leadership in desperately short supply and needed more than ever. Although I wonder if Brexit would have been beyond the likes of Churchill, not just the likes of May.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    tpfkar said:

    Great article, enjoyed it.

    As you say, leadership in desperately short supply and needed more than ever. Although I wonder if Brexit would have been beyond the likes of Churchill, not just the likes of May.

    I wonder if it would have been beyond de Gaulle.
  • I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Oh was that an e pluribus unum?

    Your are Martin Selmayr and I claim my £5.
    €6 €5 surely?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    Oh was that an e pluribus unum?

    Your are Martin Selmayr and I claim my £5.
    €6 €5 surely?
    If I really wanted to annoy Selmayr, I would ask for five Reichsmarks.

    But that would lack class.
  • I see face-ache are in the doo doo again. Hiring a PR firm who pushed antisemitic conspiracy theories about Soros.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,177
    Pretty much.

    And so onto the leaked Political Statement, which is Canada just plus enough not to be silly, given we're twenty miles away rather than 3000 miles. European Union very, very minus - that's all we need to know.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 297
    edited November 2018
    "She is the caretaker manager of the UK, put in place to see a bad season through and then be sacrificed for the shine of a fresh start."

    Is that after relegation or a just-about-got-over-the-line-what-were-you-worried-about season?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885
    ydoethur said:

    tpfkar said:

    Great article, enjoyed it.

    As you say, leadership in desperately short supply and needed more than ever. Although I wonder if Brexit would have been beyond the likes of Churchill, not just the likes of May.

    I wonder if it would have been beyond de Gaulle.
    He’d have done the same thing. Kick out the EMA and EBA and say we’re keeping the benefits of economic integration without dirtying our hands with the politics.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited November 2018

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,867
    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, Corporeal, but I'm not sure I agree.

    There was an opportunity in the immediate aftermath of the referendum for May to establish and evolve a broader concensus on some of the key themes of LEAVE. She could, for example, have set out a BINO position from the start.

    The problem was the country was exhausted from months of rancorous debate, everyone wanted to go on their holidays and forget about politics and the EU.

    Instead, we abdicated responsibility and went along with "Trust Theresa" until we discovered we didn't and since the 2017 GE the negotiation process has been constrained by the political reality of her appalling decision to go to the country. She should have resigned on the Friday morning after.

    I suspect had she got the majority of 50-100 she was expecting she could have concluded a BINO agreement quickly and effectively but through her own political misjudgement something simple has become a long drawn out train wreck or car crash for those who eschew public transport.

    The only saving grace is she faces Jeremy Corbyn - were she facing, for example, Ed Balls, the towels would be flying in from her corner by now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)

    Far too sensible for Corbyn.
  • I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, Corporeal, but I'm not sure I agree.

    There was an opportunity in the immediate aftermath of the referendum for May to establish and evolve a broader concensus on some of the key themes of LEAVE. She could, for example, have set out a BINO position from the start.

    The problem was the country was exhausted from months of rancorous debate, everyone wanted to go on their holidays and forget about politics and the EU.

    Instead, we abdicated responsibility and went along with "Trust Theresa" until we discovered we didn't and since the 2017 GE the negotiation process has been constrained by the political reality of her appalling decision to go to the country. She should have resigned on the Friday morning after.

    I suspect had she got the majority of 50-100 she was expecting she could have concluded a BINO agreement quickly and effectively but through her own political misjudgement something simple has become a long drawn out train wreck or car crash for those who eschew public transport.

    The only saving grace is she faces Jeremy Corbyn - were she facing, for example, Ed Balls, the towels would be flying in from her corner by now.

    Had she got a majority of 100 many of the new MPs would have been Leavers which would have just made the ERG more powerful and the Tory split more obvious.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    ydoethur said:

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)

    Far too sensible for Corbyn.
    True. But McDonnell might go for it; Corbyn would follow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    FF43 said:

    Pretty much.

    And so onto the leaked Political Statement, which is Canada just plus enough not to be silly, given we're twenty miles away rather than 3000 miles. European Union very, very minus - that's all we need to know.

    Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are not 20 miles from Ireland and Spain.

    Although it would have neutralised many problems if they were.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)

    Far too sensible for Corbyn.
    True. But McDonnell might go for it; Corbyn would follow.
    Because Shadow Chancellors leading nominal leaders by the nose is such a good look?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited November 2018

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    As I said on the previous thread, the next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 80 years.
  • I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    In view of TM rejection tonight of no referendum while she is PM what is your path to one
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)

    Far too sensible for Corbyn.
    True. But McDonnell might go for it; Corbyn would follow.
    Because Shadow Chancellors leading nominal leaders by the nose is such a good look?
    Suspect Corbyn's just a figurehead; McDonnell's the power behind the throne.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    In view of TM rejection tonight of no referendum while she is PM what is your path to one
    Just like she rejected a GE last March?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    As I said on the previous thread, the next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 80 years.
    Given the last ten years, that's setting the bar high.

    Interesting that 1940 was less dramatic than 1938.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,664

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    As I said on the previous thread, the next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 80 years.
    That would be difficult.
  • I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    In view of TM rejection tonight of no referendum while she is PM what is your path to one
    Just like she rejected a GE last March?
    And she also used to say that No Deal was better than a Bad Deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    edited November 2018
    He can't. This is QMV.

    In a way it's reassuring to know it's not only in Britain that political leaders are ignorant incompetents, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the future of civilization.

    Edit: anyway, he can't 'veto Brexit.' That's like these idiots talking about unilaterally withdrawing A50. I think he means he will refuse to endorse the withdrawal agreement.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 1,955
    Excellent piece, gave me a good laugh in these dark times. Unfortunately most of it is a fairly accurate description of where we are.
  • I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    In view of TM rejection tonight of no referendum while she is PM what is your path to one
    Just like she rejected a GE last March?
    And she also used to say that No Deal was better than a Bad Deal.
    You misheard her, she said 'No Brexit is better than No Deal'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,664
    edited November 2018
    Hillary Clinton goes off-message:


    "Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop rightwing populists"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885
    ydoethur said:

    He can't. This is QMV.

    In a way it's reassuring to know it's not only in Britain are ignorant incompetents, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the future of civilization.
    The summit this weekend is just to seal the deal. The formal QMV vote will be later. He can still scupper the summit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    AndyJS said:

    Hillary Clinton goes off-message:


    "Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop rightwing populists"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit

    We'll build a wall then, eh Hillary?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,317
    ydoethur said:

    He can't. This is QMV.

    In a way it's reassuring to know it's not only in Britain are ignorant incompetents, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the future of civilization.

    Edit: anyway, he can't 'veto Brexit.' That's like these idiots talking about unilaterally withdrawing A50. I think he means he will refuse to endorse the withdrawal agreement.
    Also potential vote against the new whizzy bang fantastico new trade deal in 2 years time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    AndyJS said:

    Hillary Clinton goes off-message:


    "Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop rightwing populists"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit

    We'll build a wall then, eh Hillary?
    She hasn't said Mexico will pay for it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,079
    Wonderful thread Corporeal
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    He can't. This is QMV.

    In a way it's reassuring to know it's not only in Britain are ignorant incompetents, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the future of civilization.

    Edit: anyway, he can't 'veto Brexit.' That's like these idiots talking about unilaterally withdrawing A50. I think he means he will refuse to endorse the withdrawal agreement.
    Also potential vote against the new whizzy bang fantastico new trade deal in 2 years time.
    The likelihood of him being there in two years is the likelihood of John McDonnell criticising Mao for running a misguided agricultural policy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684
    Yes. Great header. Harsh? yes. Fair? yes.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?
  • I did think about using a picture of Sam Allardyce for this thread.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    As I said on the previous thread, the next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 80 years.
    Given the last ten years, that's setting the bar high.

    Interesting that 1940 was less dramatic than 1938.
    Rounding up - give me a break!

    The next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 78 years.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,240
    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    FOM continues during the transition, but the political declaration indicates that it won’t after the transition has finished.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684

    I did think about using a picture of Sam Allardyce for this thread.

    Allardyce keeps teams up. Tessie is fighting hard. But we still need 7 points from our last 3 games.
    And a bit of luck too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    As I said on the previous thread, the next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 80 years.
    Given the last ten years, that's setting the bar high.

    Interesting that 1940 was less dramatic than 1938.
    Rounding up - give me a break!

    The next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 78 years.
    I thought there was Norway your figures added up!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604
    edited November 2018
    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    Please read this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    Post transition agreement: No freedom of movement/work, but no need to have a visa to visit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,698
    Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,317
    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    Please read this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    Post transition agreement: No freedom of movement/work, but no need to have a visa to visit.
    Unless the UK asks to extend the transition/implementation period and then it will continue as well as a cash payment.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    Please read this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    Post transition agreement: No freedom of movement/work, but no need to have a visa to visit.
    Thanks a lot.
  • dixiedean said:

    I did think about using a picture of Sam Allardyce for this thread.

    Allardyce keeps teams up. Tessie is fighting hard. But we still need 7 points from our last 3 games.
    And a bit of luck too.
    With the final three games being Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City.
  • Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,604

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    Please read this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    Post transition agreement: No freedom of movement/work, but no need to have a visa to visit.
    Unless the UK asks to extend the transition/implementation period and then it will continue as well as a cash payment.
    The transition period extension is limited to another two years, right?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    In view of TM rejection tonight of no referendum while she is PM what is your path to one
    TM rejected the 2017 general election right up until she called it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I guess we (Labour) can sign up to something resembling the current deal, but only after we've given a good go at bringing down the government.

    When Tezzie accuses Jezza of playing party politics over Brexit, my response is 'I bloody well hope so!'

    So, do you see that sequence as: Meaningful vote (fails); VoNC (fails); Meaningful Vote (succeeds)?

    May would need to offer something (carrot or stick) to get Labour to change to support the 2nd MV surely?

    (In contrast, I'd suggest Labour supports the Meaningful vote, noting that they are bailing out the Govt in the interests of the country, then launches a VoNC when DUP and ERG nerves are at their rawest.)
    2nd MV with a 2nd referendum to confirm the acceptability of the deal. Should help to tear the Tories apart if May offered it to get Labour support in Parliament.
    As I said on the previous thread, the next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 80 years.
    Given the last ten years, that's setting the bar high.

    Interesting that 1940 was less dramatic than 1938.
    Rounding up - give me a break!

    The next 12 months have the potential to be the most dramatic in British politics for 78 years.
    I thought there was Norway your figures added up!
    Norway was 1940, 78 1/2 years ago.

    Anyway, the point is, how blessed are we to be political nerds about to witness 12 months of complete political upheaval? As if 2016 wasn't enough eh?
  • FPT

    Labour should whip to abstain in the meaningful vote, or even vote for it.

    Once it passes, the DUP will desert, the Tories will tear themselves apart, and a VoNC will pass in the spring. IMHO.

    And then you wake up :)
    Evening Dr P. My yellow pen was busy at the weekend - the Henley on Thames branch.
    Nice - I did that way back in 2011. For me, apart from some rare weekend-only routes in England, and the new Rotherham to Sheffield Tram, I need Ayr to Stranraer, the Cowdenbath Loop, and all of Scotland north of Helensburgh/Balloch/Milngavie/Falkirk/Ladybank/Leuchars.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later

    It wasn't that they treated it badly. Compared to what they inflicted on Russia at Brest Litovsk, Germany got off lightly.

    It was leaving Germany intact while giving them no reason not to be embittered that was the big error.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,664
    "That bare bones approach is about to become extinct".
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,317
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    Please read this:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/framework-uk-eu-future-relationship

    Post transition agreement: No freedom of movement/work, but no need to have a visa to visit.
    Unless the UK asks to extend the transition/implementation period and then it will continue as well as a cash payment.
    The transition period extension is limited to another two years, right?
    Correct, I was still working on 20xx and should have qualified my statement by can be extended by another 2 years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    Quite brilliant! :lol:

    (And you didn't even get into grammar school - well done mate!)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157
    Think he must mean he'll veto the trade agreement?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    AndyJS said:

    "That bare bones approach is about to become extinct".

    Well, it was a skeleton arrangement at best.

    Have a good evening. If war breaks out with Spain you will know the Spanish PM did not relish my comparison of his words to those of Boris. Although it could have been worse, it looked more like Trump.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
    This is why you Leavers are such an embarrassment and risk losing it all.

    You consistently tell us all what you're opposed to but seldom tell us in detail what you want/would do.

    Since nature abhors a vacuum...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846
    GIN1138 said:

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
    She had a full house, which would’ve been a winning hand if they weren’t playing Bridge.
  • Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    Quite brilliant! :lol:

    (And you didn't even get into grammar school - well done mate!)
    I was a working class Northerner so I was educated at the school of life.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    GIN1138 said:

    Think he must mean he'll veto the trade agreement?
    As @ydoethur pointed out earlier, chances of Sanchez still being around when the trade agreement's finalised is slim to none (and Slim has just left town).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157
    edited November 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
    This is why you Leavers are such an embarrassment


    Say's the person who has such "eccentric" tastes in shoes... :disappointed:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    Quite brilliant! :lol:

    (And you didn't even get into grammar school - well done mate!)
    I was a working class Northerner so I was educated at the school of life.
    With a bursary?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    GIN1138 said:

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
    This is why you Leavers are such an embarrassment and risk losing it all.

    You consistently tell us all what you're opposed to but seldom tell us in detail what you want/would do.

    Since nature abhors a vacuum...
    Aren’t they clear? They prefer to take the economic hit of a minimal deal in order to have greater freedom.

    May prefers to sacrifice democratic accountability for economic benefits.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    While the DM remains on message Theresa has hope.
  • While the DM remains on message Theresa has hope.
    They are fully in support of TM and full on anti ERG
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    While the DM remains on message Theresa has hope.
    They are fully in support of TM and full on anti ERG
    Lay down with dogs wake up with fleas.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    The photo on tomorrow's Express front page is a bit of a shocker. TMay soldiering on answering Brexit questions, but to a largely empty HoC.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,122

    GIN1138 said:

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
    This is why you Leavers are such an embarrassment and risk losing it all.

    You consistently tell us all what you're opposed to but seldom tell us in detail what you want/would do.

    Since nature abhors a vacuum...
    There are 17.4m different answers to the question "what do leave voters expect from Brexit?"

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    GIN1138 said:

    Think he must mean he'll veto the trade agreement?
    It is in Spain's power.

    The advantage of Blind BINO Brexit to the Leavers is that at least it is Brexit. It gets them over the line.

    The advantage to the EU is that their position is strengthened for ongoing negotiations. Any country (like Spain over Gibralter) or Slovakia or Romania over work permits can veto a Trade Agreement, and in the meantime the CU and Backstop apply.

    A good deal is defined as being good for both parties.
  • The photo on tomorrow's Express front page is a bit of a shocker. TMay soldiering on answering Brexit questions, but to a largely empty HoC.

    And that is the Express
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917
    The Mail is probably most where people are right now on this, from my anecdotal litmus testing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    GIN1138 said:

    Just imagine how bad the deal would have been if we didn't hold all the aces.

    We had a decent hand but Theresa showed all her cards at the outset (well from the moment she agreed the backstop) :(
    This is why you Leavers are such an embarrassment and risk losing it all.

    You consistently tell us all what you're opposed to but seldom tell us in detail what you want/would do.

    Since nature abhors a vacuum...
    There are 17.4m different answers to the question "what do leave voters expect from Brexit?"

    Not according to the ERG!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,562
    We just have to hope that our political class never has to do anything complicated or important. It would be genuinely alarming.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    The photo on tomorrow's Express front page is a bit of a shocker. TMay soldiering on answering Brexit questions, but to a largely empty HoC.

    And that is the Express
    She is trying to grind everyone down with her technocratic style, where they vote for her just to put us out of our misery.

    Not sure she’ll win, people care too much on this one.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Xenon said:

    Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?

    FOM continues during the transition, but the political declaration indicates that it won’t after the transition has finished.
    Yes, we can all hope we use the transitionary years to broker freedom of movement for the long term. A borderless Europe is something leavers and remainers alike can all aspire to.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,122

    The Mail is probably most where people are right now on this, from my anecdotal litmus testing.

    Certainly. But it's not where most MPs are.
  • While the DM remains on message Theresa has hope.
    Not really. I reckon that the Deal's heading down by a majority of at least 150. That is going to be difficult to explain away.

This discussion has been closed.