Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?
FOM continues during the transition, but the political declaration indicates that it won’t after the transition has finished.
Yes, we can all hope we use the transitionary years to broker freedom of movement for the long term. A borderless Europe is something leavers and remainers alike can all aspire to.
Yes, the political declaration also says that the four freedoms are indivisible. Cherry-picking is not on the menu.
If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.
There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.
So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
They don't believe/care about the consequences of no deal, whatever they might claim, and because it is not perfect they are no political benefit to voting for it. Plus the arch remainers. Seems straight forward.
The backstop is uncomfortable for the EU as well as for us, so both parties have an incentive to negotiate a trade deal.
For me, being outside the political structures of the EU, even if in some form of customs union with them, is preferable to being dragged kicking and screaming into a European State.
Exactly.
If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, myself and a few others.
There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.
So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
I'd rather stay in the EU than this deal. We're stuck in to all the bad parts, being unable to change anything, everything being totally out of our control and also unable to leave.
We don't get to take charge of things we really should be able to like justice or our own fishing waters, but we don't get the benefits such as being able to live in other EU countries either.
If I could see an end date where all this crap is finally sorted out and we're free then it would be worth it in the long run, but there seems to be no way out. The best way to leave the EU would be to stay in for now and leave when we have someone in charge who actually knows what they're doing.
We do take control of our own waters. This is another misrepresentation which appears to come from people who haven't bothered to read or try to understand the documents.
Even if you're right it wont win over any more MP votes.
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
Thanks for a highly entertaining thread, Corporeal, which accurately summarises much of where we are.
One point I'd take issue with is Starmer. I don't see him edging Corbyn either way. I see a man reverting to type as a talented barrister advocating his brief. There's no leadership there at all - no real desire to drive events. To the extent that he's diverged from Corbyn, it's because Corbyn's diverged from the official Labour position whereas Starmer has stuck resolutely to it (no matter how daft it is). For all that Starmer is a very intelligent man, he's no politician.
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
The Mail is probably most where people are right now on this, from my anecdotal litmus testing.
Certainly. But it's not where most MPs are.
Precisely. They are the key and either because the deal really is that bad plus the hope for a GE or remain or deal as preferred outcome, there are too many too strongly committed to back down. Maybe some will but not dozens upon dozens. Waverers would see it going down and not be inclined to support it either.
Many now believe the public want it over and done, and that may be true, but they are hardly clamouring for it to be done this way, so Mps aren't about to face consequences for delaying or risking things. After all, significant numbers will be ecstatic if they succeed with GE or remain or no deal or whatever.
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
She lectures, she does not convince.
She win the minds of the converted, she wins the hearts of noone.
Any one know what the deal is for freedom of movement during the transition period and also after we've officially left?
FOM continues during the transition, but the political declaration indicates that it won’t after the transition has finished.
Yes, we can all hope we use the transitionary years to broker freedom of movement for the long term. A borderless Europe is something leavers and remainers alike can all aspire to.
Not desired by the voters of this country, so no, I very much doubt the transition will be used to broker FOM.
Oh, and following on from that, it's not inconceivable that Corbyn could be PM by this time next week.
If May can get her deal through a general election in January looks possible with the DUP no confidencing her and if she cannot with Soubry, Wollaston etc no confidencing any Tory PM who pushes No Deal, Corbyn then PM propped up by the SNP and agreeing permanent customs union and single market.
Oh, and following on from that, it's not inconceivable that Corbyn could be PM by this time next week.
If May cannot get her Deal through a general election in January looks possible with Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and agreeing permanent customs union and single market.
Boris then takes over as Tory leader of the Opposition
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
Those were back-of-the-hand figures. If 50% of backbenchers are opposed, some will abstain but most will vote against. I did say *at least* 150. The way things are going, it could be 200+.
Eventually, labour will get into power. And possibly we remain to boot.
But short term May will resign. No laughing, she would genuinely have no further reason to go on. At the moment she is at least waiting to see the house vote as they promise they will. She won't have that once they do.
If we get a new deal which is largely the same I hope all those kicking up a fuss now, left and right, are consistent in rejecting it too.
Then May goes back to Brussels, runs the clock down and returns with a fancy new deal, which if you look at it closely, turns out to be the same deal in a different font. Then parliament really does have to decide on Deal / No Deal, there not being time for an election or referendum.
(Obviously, Labour will table a VoNC when the deal goes down but the Tories will all return on side and I expect that the DUP will do so too, having seen off the threat of the two-tier regulatory arrangement, and enjoying the power that the current Commons maths gives them).
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
Those were back-of-the-hand figures. If 50% of backbenchers are opposed, some will abstain but most will vote against. I did say *at least* 150. The way things are going, it could be 200+.
I'm not convinced the cabinet will vote for it when it gets to the commons. Bunch of snakes who will later disavow it anyway.
The Mail is probably most where people are right now on this, from my anecdotal litmus testing.
Certainly. But it's not where most MPs are.
Precisely. They are the key and either because the deal really is that bad plus the hope for a GE or remain or deal as preferred outcome, there are too many too strongly committed to back down. Maybe some will but not dozens upon dozens. Waverers would see it going down and not be inclined to support it either.
Many now believe the public want it over and done, and that may be true, but they are hardly clamouring for it to be done this way, so Mps aren't about to face consequences for delaying or risking things. After all, significant numbers will be ecstatic if they succeed with GE or remain or no deal or whatever.
Europe is a talismanic issue to many MPs, on both sides of the debate. They are not going to give up the fight just because the public are bored with it. And, in this case, the MPs are right. These are crucial decisions which could, in the worst case, end in the end of the UK as an entity. It is right that MPs should take them seriously and fight for what they believe to be the best outcome.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
And then what? TMay survies? Or is not, a coronation or leadeship election? Meanwhile we drift on towards No Deal?
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
Maybe. The Tories are so divided the idea they could unite around a candidate and a brexit stance is another of the very wishful thinking ideas going around, and if the country is waiting several.more months anyway why should it just for the Tories, probably best to properly change course. Labour's position is very cynical but they are at least more united about it, remarkably.
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
Those were back-of-the-hand figures. If 50% of backbenchers are opposed, some will abstain but most will vote against. I did say *at least* 150. The way things are going, it could be 200+.
I'm not convinced the cabinet will vote for it when it gets to the commons. Bunch of snakes who will later disavow it anyway.
The cabinet's already voted for it. It'd look absurd to resign now (cue ridicule about 'slow readers'). Granted, running the risk of looking absurd hasn't always been a deterrent for some Leavers but I do think that the boat's sailed on that one. They will of course disavow it later, when it's dead, but claim that 'collective responsibility' obliged them to support it at the time.
The Mail is probably most where people are right now on this, from my anecdotal litmus testing.
Certainly. But it's not where most MPs are.
Precisely. They are the key and either because the deal really is that bad plus the hope for a GE or remain or deal as preferred outcome, there are too many too strongly committed to back down. Maybe some will but not dozens upon dozens. Waverers would see it going down and not be inclined to support it either.
Many now believe the public want it over and done, and that may be true, but they are hardly clamouring for it to be done this way, so Mps aren't about to face consequences for delaying or risking things. After all, significant numbers will be ecstatic if they succeed with GE or remain or no deal or whatever.
Europe is a talismanic issue to many MPs, on both sides of the debate. They are not going to give up the fight just because the public are bored with it. And, in this case, the MPs are right. These are crucial decisions which could, in the worst case, end in the end of the UK as an entity. It is right that MPs should take them seriously and fight for what they believe to be the best outcome.
Indeed. Though I'm far from convinced all are doing so since there's talk of people possibly only willing if May steps down so a new Tory leader is in for a ge, or potentially willing but prioritising labour getting in his a GE.
Theresa May has been running a hero/zero cycle for some time. Like the plot of Independence Day, the period of the cycle keeps shortening like a count down.
In the movie the Aliens attacked and blew up landmarks across the globe. This seems worse. And no Jeff Goldblum to save us.
Oh, and following on from that, it's not inconceivable that Corbyn could be PM by this time next week.
If May cannot get her Deal through a general election in January looks possible with Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and agreeing permanent customs union and single market.
Boris then takes over as Tory leader of the Opposition
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
Those were back-of-the-hand figures. If 50% of backbenchers are opposed, some will abstain but most will vote against. I did say *at least* 150. The way things are going, it could be 200+.
I'm not convinced the cabinet will vote for it when it gets to the commons. Bunch of snakes who will later disavow it anyway.
The cabinet's already voted for it. It'd look absurd to resign now (cue ridicule about 'slow readers'). Granted, running the risk of looking absurd hasn't always been a deterrent for some Leavers but I do think that the boat's sailed on that one. They will of course disavow it later, when it's dead, but claim that 'collective responsibility' obliged them to support it at the time.
I said in the commons. They've already had some openly defy collective responsibility on the issue anyway so why not go one step further, and it would be a bollocks excuse as obviously any of them could quit on the issues.
Oh, and following on from that, it's not inconceivable that Corbyn could be PM by this time next week.
If May cannot get her Deal through a general election in January looks possible with Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and agreeing permanent customs union and single market.
Boris then takes over as Tory leader of the Opposition
No one likes an assassin.
Putin does.
Does he have a vote in the Tory leadership election? On second thoughts don’t answer that.
Oh, and following on from that, it's not inconceivable that Corbyn could be PM by this time next week.
If May cannot get her Deal through a general election in January looks possible with Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and agreeing permanent customs union and single market.
Boris then takes over as Tory leader of the Opposition
No one likes an assassin.
Putin does.
Does he have a vote in the Tory leadership election? On second thoughts don’t answer that.
Momentum is building against it not for. The idea from some of mass abstentions from Labour or Tories looks to be wishful thinking of the very highest order.
She lectures, she does not convince.
She win the minds of the converted, she wins the hearts of noone.
Indeed. She'd be better being a little more honest about the shortcomnigs of the deal. She's trying to convince people it is perfect. Not that it is the best that can be done. If she'd meet her critics halfway, accept they have good reasons for opposing the deal, even if she doesn't believe it, but argue that their votes are needed, she might have more success. An "I feel your pain", as it were. But she doesn't do empathy, or emote well at all.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
Oh, and following on from that, it's not inconceivable that Corbyn could be PM by this time next week.
If May cannot get her Deal through a general election in January looks possible with Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP and agreeing permanent customs union and single market.
Boris then takes over as Tory leader of the Opposition
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
Mexican War as well!
There was a rather larger one next door.
But no general war between most or all of the major powers between 1815 and 1914; no total war between any two of them either. Those wars that there were were limited, using slightly augmented regular forces, and generally short.
Another question time audience scoffing at Labour's position on Brexit.
Public backing May.
How long before the MPs fall into line....
They won't. Too committed. They are going to show everyone they really are sovereign by firmly refusing to do anything and then shunting it to the people to remain.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
And then what? TMay survies? Or is not, a coronation or leadeship election? Meanwhile we drift on towards No Deal?
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
Maybe. The Tories are so divided the idea they could unite around a candidate and a brexit stance is another of the very wishful thinking ideas going around, and if the country is waiting several.more months anyway why should it just for the Tories, probably best to properly change course. Labour's position is very cynical but they are at least more united about it, remarkably.
Labour's position is more unified because they're in opposition, from where it's a lot easier to believe that what you want to see as a unicorn isn't in fact a donkey with a toilet roll attached to its nose. They would become ununified very quickly if they actually had to start negotiating details.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Maybe that was the plan all along. Run down the clock, make a bare bones deal impossible with only complete chaos or remaining being the options.
Some of my leave voting friends were convinced of this as soon as leave won.
Trevor Phillips despite being a Labour member says Clive Lewis 'peddling a fantasy' by saying Corbyn will get another Deal, it will be this Deal or No Deal
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Maybe that was the plan all along. Run down the clock, make a bare bones deal impossible with only complete chaos or remaining being the options.
Some of my leave voting friends were convinced of this as soon as leave won.
Yes, but May is not a supervillain who could orchestrate it so perfectly that it is just terrible enough to fail. She lost her majority on purpose as part of this plan or she's didn't in which case she surely couldn't plan something like this.
I think we will just have to get used to the idea of remaining. Leave will need to start all over again.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
And then what? TMay survies? Or is not, a coronation or leadeship election? Meanwhile we drift on towards No Deal?
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
Maybe. The Tories are so divided the idea they could unite around a candidate and a brexit stance is another of the very wishful thinking ideas going around, and if the country is waiting several.more months anyway why should it just for the Tories, probably best to properly change course. Labour's position is very cynical but they are at least more united about it, remarkably.
Labour's position is more unified because they're in opposition, from where it's a lot easier to believe that what you want to see as a unicorn isn't in fact a donkey with a toilet roll attached to its nose.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Maybe that was the plan all along. Run down the clock, make a bare bones deal impossible with only complete chaos or remaining being the options.
Some of my leave voting friends were convinced of this as soon as leave won.
Yes, but May is not a supervillain who could orchestrate it so perfectly that it is just terrible enough to fail. She lost her majority on purpose as part of this plan or she's didn't in which case she surely couldn't plan something like this.
I think we will just have to get used to the idea of remaining. Leave will need to start all over again.
She made sure there was no alternative to "the deal" other than remaining. They could have started from a bare bones arrangement and negotiated from there....but nope.
And then what? TMay survies? Or is not, a coronation or leadeship election? Meanwhile we drift on towards No Deal?
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
Maybe. The Tories are so divided the idea they could unite around a candidate and a brexit stance is another of the very wishful thinking ideas going around, and if the country is waiting several.more months anyway why should it just for the Tories, probably best to properly change course. Labour's position is very cynical but they are at least more united about it, remarkably.
Labour's position is more unified because they're in opposition, from where it's a lot easier to believe that what you want to see as a unicorn isn't in fact a donkey with a toilet roll attached to its nose. They would become ununified very quickly if they actually had to start negotiating details.
I'm sure that's true but the point was one reason why in a GE labour would win, not that it'd be easy for them afterwards.
Tory MPs are saying, in effect, that no brexit may be better than this even if they prefer a good exit, and that Corbyn in power is better than what we have now, since he too is promising a better brexit.
If that's whatthey believe that's fine, but I'd bet they'll still regret Corbyn and remain occurring.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Maybe that was the plan all along. Run down the clock, make a bare bones deal impossible with only complete chaos or remaining being the options.
Some of my leave voting friends were convinced of this as soon as leave won.
Yes, but May is not a supervillain who could orchestrate it so perfectly that it is just terrible enough to fail. She lost her majority on purpose as part of this plan or she's didn't in which case she surely couldn't plan something like this.
I think we will just have to get used to the idea of remaining. Leave will need to start all over again.
She made sure there was no alternative to "the deal" other than remaining. They could have started from a bare bones arrangement and negotiated from there....but nope.
Her doing a bad job doesn't make her a mastermind. Nothing about her position makes that credible.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
And then what? TMay survies? Or is not, a coronation or leadeship election? Meanwhile we drift on towards No Deal?
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
Maybe. The Tories are so divided the idea they could unite around a candidate and a brexit stance is another of the very wishful thinking ideas going around, and if the country is waiting several.more months anyway why should it just for the Tories, probably best to properly change course. Labour's position is very cynical but they are at least more united about it, remarkably.
Labour's position is more unified because they're in opposition, from where it's a lot easier to believe that what you want to see as a unicorn isn't in fact a donkey with a toilet roll attached to its nose.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Support for UKIP will be back to 2015 levels.
Zero MPs. Shudders.
It is what I think could happen, not what I hope would happen.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
If all people want us to leave the deal achieves that. Clearly merely leaving is not enough so while there would be a big backlash it might not be as large as you think since the whole premise of some now admitting no brexit would be better is because they don't think thdy can convince the right people to support a good brexit
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
And then what? TMay survies? Or is not, a coronation or leadeship election? Meanwhile we drift on towards No Deal?
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
Maybe. The Tories are so divided the idea they could unite around a candidate and a brexit stance is another of the very wishful thinking ideas going around, and if the country is waiting several.more months anyway why should it just for the Tories, probably best to properly change course. Labour's position is very cynical but they are at least more united about it, remarkably.
Labour's position is more unified because they're in opposition, from where it's a lot easier to believe that what you want to see as a unicorn isn't in fact a donkey with a toilet roll attached to its nose.
Forehead, surely?
Even by PB standards, that was top pedantry. Chapeau, Sir
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
I don't see how this works. I don't know why Tory mps voting against in droves would definitely vote against a referendum, or renegotiating after for some reason not ditching May, and then suddenly support the deal. If they don't want no deal the other options prevent it and don't include doing a u turn. Similarly I dont see why labour would vote for or abstain even if or her options failed. They can just keep voting it down with the ERG.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
She won't get the chance. We've got to have at least one vote but she won't get another. Not getting the 48 letters us handy for the opponents now. Once the deal fails if she doesn't go I'd bet she will lose a vote of no confidence then. Her most notable cabinet members have either made public or leaked they have had issues, so I doubt they will support her at this stage.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
If she were to survive that long then yes. Labour will not back default No Deal.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
You wrote "major war" above: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Even the Mexican French War had 45,000 dead compared to 3 million killed in the Napoleonic Wars and 9 million in World War 1 and 24 million World War 11
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
Mexican War as well!
There was a rather larger one next door.
But no general war between most or all of the major powers between 1815 and 1914; no total war between any two of them either. Those wars that there were were limited, using slightly augmented regular forces, and generally short.
The Second French Intervention in Mexico (Sp.: Segunda intervención francesa en México, 1861–67) was an invasion of Mexico, launched in late 1861, by the Second French Empire (1852–70). Initially supported by Britain and Spain, the French intervention in Mexico was a consequence of President Benito Juárez's two-year moratorium, on 17 July 1861, of loan-interest payments to French, British and Spanish creditors.[11]
To extend the influence of Imperial France, Napoleon III instigated the intervention in Mexico by claiming that the military adventure was a foreign policy commitment to free trade. The establishment of a friendly monarchy in Mexico would ensure European access to Latin American markets; and French access to Mexican silver. To realize his imperial ambitions without other European interference, Napoleon III entered into a coalition with Britain and Spain, while the U.S. was occupied with the American Civil War (1861–65), and unable to enforce the Monroe Doctrine.[12]
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
She won't get the chance. We've got to have at least one vote but she won't get another. Not getting the 48 letters us handy for the opponents now. Once the deal fails if she doesn't go I'd bet she will lose a vote of no confidence then. Her most notable cabinet members have either made public or leaked they have had issues, so I doubt they will support her at this stage.
No, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back her deal and most of those firmly oppose No Deal
FFS if she could see another way through the backstop she'd certainly have used it by now and saved all this headache. Either it's not possible or she won't do it. They clearly don't believe it's not possible so they know what they have to do if she won't. Please can they just STFU if they are unwilling to do what that requires, not stay in place but refuse to defend collective policy.
Good night all. Pleasant dreams to remainers, brexit is nearly over now. A few more months of wasted effort and you could have won the prize.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
It is disgusting is what it is.
Vote it down over principle would be ok
Voting it down and risking what we keep being told is a huge recession and high unemployment, unemployment which will hit working class the hardest for a chance at power is contemptible
What I find ironic is if they get in and try their economic policies we will be far, far worse off than we would be by a bad brexit.
Comments
One point I'd take issue with is Starmer. I don't see him edging Corbyn either way. I see a man reverting to type as a talented barrister advocating his brief. There's no leadership there at all - no real desire to drive events. To the extent that he's diverged from Corbyn, it's because Corbyn's diverged from the official Labour position whereas Starmer has stuck resolutely to it (no matter how daft it is). For all that Starmer is a very intelligent man, he's no politician.
Many now believe the public want it over and done, and that may be true, but they are hardly clamouring for it to be done this way, so Mps aren't about to face consequences for delaying or risking things. After all, significant numbers will be ecstatic if they succeed with GE or remain or no deal or whatever.
Entertaining and accurate (if depressing in what it means for us).
She win the minds of the converted, she wins the hearts of noone.
Boris takes over as Tory leader of the Opposition
*Theresa May facepalm*
Mr Batten added: "It is not necessary for him to be a party member in order to assist me in this role. I am looking forward to working with him".
But short term May will resign. No laughing, she would genuinely have no further reason to go on. At the moment she is at least waiting to see the house vote as they promise they will. She won't have that once they do.
If we get a new deal which is largely the same I hope all those kicking up a fuss now, left and right, are consistent in rejecting it too.
He won't be alone.
(Obviously, Labour will table a VoNC when the deal goes down but the Tories will all return on side and I expect that the DUP will do so too, having seen off the threat of the two-tier regulatory arrangement, and enjoying the power that the current Commons maths gives them).
I think a HoC VoNC would follow a TMay VoNC.
In the movie the Aliens attacked and blew up landmarks across the globe. This seems worse. And no Jeff Goldblum to save us.
If she'd meet her critics halfway, accept they have good reasons for opposing the deal, even if she doesn't believe it, but argue that their votes are needed, she might have more success.
An "I feel your pain", as it were.
But she doesn't do empathy, or emote well at all.
Public backing May.
How long before the MPs fall into line....
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
But no general war between most or all of the major powers between 1815 and 1914; no total war between any two of them either. Those wars that there were were limited, using slightly augmented regular forces, and generally short.
Some of my leave voting friends were convinced of this as soon as leave won.
Bringing the deal forward has finally shown their fence sitting position to be ridiculous.
I think we will just have to get used to the idea of remaining. Leave will need to start all over again.
Tory MPs are saying, in effect, that no brexit may be better than this even if they prefer a good exit, and that Corbyn in power is better than what we have now, since he too is promising a better brexit.
If that's whatthey believe that's fine, but I'd bet they'll still regret Corbyn and remain occurring.
Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought.
Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/igor-korobov-chief-of-gru-russian-military-intelligence-agency-linked-to-skripal-poisonings-dies-fmnt9vh3g
the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
To extend the influence of Imperial France, Napoleon III instigated the intervention in Mexico by claiming that the military adventure was a foreign policy commitment to free trade. The establishment of a friendly monarchy in Mexico would ensure European access to Latin American markets; and French access to Mexican silver. To realize his imperial ambitions without other European interference, Napoleon III entered into a coalition with Britain and Spain, while the U.S. was occupied with the American Civil War (1861–65), and unable to enforce the Monroe Doctrine.[12]
Good night all. Pleasant dreams to remainers, brexit is nearly over now. A few more months of wasted effort and you could have won the prize.
Vote it down over principle would be ok
Voting it down and risking what we keep being told is a huge recession and high unemployment, unemployment which will hit working class the hardest for a chance at power is contemptible
What I find ironic is if they get in and try their economic policies we will be far, far worse off than we would be by a bad brexit.