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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be the moment for Rory Stewart – the old Etonian of

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be the moment for Rory Stewart – the old Etonian of whom great things were predicted even before he became an MP

Great things were predicted for Rory Stewart after his selection as CON candidate ahead of GE2010 for the safe seat of Penrith. He attracted an enormous amount of coverage and in December 2009 Ladbrokes made him the 12/1 fourth favourite to succeed Cameron as CON leader.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,901
    edited November 2018
    Funny how the Conservatives keep recruiting from the Bolshevik BBC. It is almost as if CCHQ does not believe its own propaganda.
  • This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    It is a pretty dozy counter strike.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,562
    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat
  • Rory for next leader? I can't see it and won't be investing until May resigns and we see the runners and riders.

    Rory Stewart has an impressive cv but, fairly or unfairly, probably the latter, he comes over like a supply teacher, and the fashions for soldiers and Etonians might be on the wane. If he shows signs of having engaged a media consultant (it worked for Jeremy Corbyn) however, that might be the time to pile in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He would certainly be a prime contender for a future Foreign, Defence or International Development Secretary
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,629
    Scott_P said:
    Brexit may end up being like the Korean War - over in practice for decades but still technically ongoing
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,958
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b069c2f6

    Worth listening to this programme about him a few years after he first became an MP, before the 2015 election, I think. Focuses mostly on his work in Cumbria and very interesting on the unsung work done by many MPs.

    The conclusion is interesting in light of this thread. Essentially says that without some big beast to sponsor him he won’t get promoted.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit may end up being like the Korean War - over in practice for decades but still technically ongoing
    Strong possibility. The debate isn't likely to stop for decades whatever the turnout.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,954
    edited November 2018
    Hasn't Stewart pinned his colours and his reputation to reforming the prison system? Shuffling off to indulge his ambition wouldn't be a great look.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat

    So he made a stat up and your leader lays wreaths on the graves of terrorists. Which is worse?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687
    HYUFD said:

    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,958

    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat

    For which he then apologised.

    If telling fibs during interviews was the test your beloved leader would be in loads of trouble. See the porkies he told Jon Snow about when he stopped giving interviews to Press TV, for instance.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841

    Hasn't Stewart pinned his colours and his reputation to reforming the prison system? Shuffling off to indulge his ambition wouldn't be a great look.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucius_Quinctius_Cincinnatus
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100

    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat

    Not particularly. He said "80% of the people...[wanted something or other]". It was a clumsy, lazy rhetorical device. He was immediately called on it and realised that he should have said, and sounded like he meant "I'm sure the vast majority of people...[wanted something or other]" and hence immediately rowed back.

    That said, I don't rate him and now is definitely not his time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,958
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
    Genuine question: what was the issue with his time in Iraq?
  • I agree that Rory has done a good job defending Tezzie's deal these past few days. Possibly he was the only minister prepared to put themselves forward. May should reward him with a cabinet position - perhaps next week when the gang of five resign?

    I'll always remember his comment about some of his constituents still holding their trousers up with twine!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Nice guy, but this is another QTWTAIN
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Exactly. They are not agitating for remain, they are agitating for no deal. No deal > Remain > May's deal. Is what they are saying.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
  • currystar said:

    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat

    So he made a stat up and your leader lays wreaths on the graves of terrorists. Which is worse?
    Putting that thought the other way around: Stewart did some walking and writing and held a minor diplomatic post, while Corbyn has been working as an undercover MI5 agent since the 1970s, gaining direct, personal access to the inner circle of numerous terrorist groups, and more recently completely disrupting the ability of a British socialist organization to gain political power. I know whose autobiography I'd rather read.
  • HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    Hardly any Leave voters make the logical connection that if the deal's worse than remaining it's because staying in the EU is better than leaving.

    I'm changing my view somewhat. I'm beginning to think Brexit is actually unworkable, and not just full of contradictions and very crap.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,263
    TOPPING said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Exactly. They are not agitating for remain, they are agitating for no deal. No deal > Remain > May's deal. Is what they are saying.
    Which is why the TARP theory of Brexit leads to Remain, not the passage of the deal.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 1,955

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    Although if he genuinely believes it, then it makes sense for him to say it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100
    Another reason why Stewart is not going anywhere is that he has been sent out by May to do the defending but is transparently obviously not a member of the inner sanctum (virtually no one is) and hence he will never be rewarded by her and, once or if he decides to spread his wings, will have those wings severely clipped if not torn off altogether.

    He is simply a useful idiot.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    Those now conceding they'd rather not brexit at all than this brexit are at least honest. They will get what they want, which is no brexit.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
    Was he any better, or worse, than the other provincial governors ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286
    edited November 2018
    After the debacle that was Cameron there should be a total embargo on all old Etonians leading the Conservative Party.

    Rory the Tory should not be an exception even if he thinks he might be rather good at it
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,841
    TOPPING said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Exactly. They are not agitating for remain, they are agitating for no deal. No deal > Remain > May's deal. Is what they are saying.
    Which makes remain the middle ground compromise, not May's deal. Your Boolean logic makes that very clear. People all over twitter are making the same point with less algebraic clarity right now. This is a huge bullet wound in foot situation for the hard leavers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,682

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    I'm not a Conservative and you did sterling work standing up for the Prime Minister and her Deal yesterday but is that really the point?

    When Cameron started us down this path in 2013 it was partly to deal with the threat of a slow leak of Conservative support to UKIP but when he won the 2015 GE (which I think was as much a surprise to him as it was to me) he saw an opportunity to use his personal popularity to take the issue and put it in front of the electorate and the people would trust him on this as they had at the GE. Had Remain won by 2:1 I doubt the issue would have seriously risen again within the Conservative Party - UKIP would have faded to the margins and been talked about as often as Eagles talks about AV.

    But it wasn't and the result amplified the long existing division within the Conservative Party and everything that has happened since then and especially in the last month has been the result of not just five years but 30 years of internal division within your Party.

    The Conservative Party, once the most pro-EU of the three parties, is now the most anti-EU (as distinct from anti-European which it isn't) and that journey has left the divisions unresolved. Yes, they can and were masked in Opposition after 1997 because frankly no one was interested in what the Conservatives under Hague, IDS and Howard said.

    I suppose the Conservative hope is once we actually leave the EU all this will go away and quieten it but I'm far less convinced.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687
    Cyclefree said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
    Genuine question: what was the issue with his time in Iraq?
    His job was to mediate between the occupying forces and the tribal structure while espousing the joys of participatory democracy. By the time he was evacuated from his besieged compound the province was in civil war and the British had utterly lost control. Does that sound like a job well done?

    The British waltzed into Basra with a great deal of hubris about how we were the masters of counter insurgency and police action. We then got soundly defeated both militarily and diplomatically. Nobody involved, and I include myself, deserves an iota of credit.
  • TOPPING said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Exactly. They are not agitating for remain, they are agitating for no deal. No deal > Remain > May's deal. Is what they are saying.
    Which makes remain the middle ground compromise, not May's deal. Your Boolean logic makes that very clear. People all over twitter are making the same point with less algebraic clarity right now. This is a huge bullet wound in foot situation for the hard leavers.
    They're certainly risking the entire concept of Brexit with their 'logic' for sure.

    Problem is they've marched up to the top of their hill, and now they have to die on it.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100

    TOPPING said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Exactly. They are not agitating for remain, they are agitating for no deal. No deal > Remain > May's deal. Is what they are saying.
    Which makes remain the middle ground compromise, not May's deal. Your Boolean logic makes that very clear. People all over twitter are making the same point with less algebraic clarity right now. This is a huge bullet wound in foot situation for the hard leavers.
    The ERG ain't in the compromising mood. Then again, given their lack of backbone, what the ERG does or doesn't want might be wholly irrelevant.
  • *cough* Some of us did say quite shortly after the referendum result that a deliberately atrocious deal might be negotiated to persuade us to end up remaining.

    I do wonder if the deal will end up passing the Commons. At the moment, sitting on the 6.5 for a second referendum.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,657
    Poor Rory - No matter how much he goes on telly to defend Theresa May she just will not promote him to the Cabinet! :(
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,977
    edited November 2018
    It's strange how this second referendum has become a comfort blanket for sore losers.

    We can extend it to GE results. If Labour sweep to power in 2022, you can always claim that the people have changed their minds within days - well before the Labour government is ensconced.

    Then you can claim that it's illegitimate because the manifesto didn't take into account the views of those who voted for another party - a clear majority in this instance. You could then claim they didn't vote to make the country poorer and they didn't understand what a Labour government meant.

    Finally, after about 18 months to two years, the period when sitting governments usually lose popularity, you can claim again that the nation has changed its mind and therefore we should have another general election immediately.


    Edit: And how would a second referendum help, even if it showed a small majority for Remain (assuming it was even on the ballot paper)?
  • Hasn't Stewart pinned his colours and his reputation to reforming the prison system? Shuffling off to indulge his ambition wouldn't be a great look.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucius_Quinctius_Cincinnatus
    I suppose that shows you need get your legends all in a row. Can't see Rory at the plough while the grey men in suits ask him to chuck his hat in the ring mind, except in a Cameronian shepherd's hutty sort of way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
    Genuine question: what was the issue with his time in Iraq?
    His job was to mediate between the occupying forces and the tribal structure while espousing the joys of participatory democracy. By the time he was evacuated from his besieged compound the province was in civil war and the British had utterly lost control. Does that sound like a job well done?

    The British waltzed into Basra with a great deal of hubris about how we were the masters of counter insurgency and police action. We then got soundly defeated both militarily and diplomatically. Nobody involved, and I include myself, deserves an iota of credit.
    One of the quotes I recall reading about was a US army bod saying:"If I hear one more word about Northern Ireland I'll shoot the lot of you myself."

    Or similar.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    I've seen Rory the Tory a few times on QT a couple of years back, his defence of May's plan on the airwaves is night and day from that.
    He has improved and developed as an MP and now minister. Can he become the next leader ? Doubtful but I'm not laying him at 1-100 either.
  • stodge said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    I'm not a Conservative and you did sterling work standing up for the Prime Minister and her Deal yesterday but is that really the point?

    When Cameron started us down this path in 2013 it was partly to deal with the threat of a slow leak of Conservative support to UKIP but when he won the 2015 GE (which I think was as much a surprise to him as it was to me) he saw an opportunity to use his personal popularity to take the issue and put it in front of the electorate and the people would trust him on this as they had at the GE. Had Remain won by 2:1 I doubt the issue would have seriously risen again within the Conservative Party - UKIP would have faded to the margins and been talked about as often as Eagles talks about AV.

    But it wasn't and the result amplified the long existing division within the Conservative Party and everything that has happened since then and especially in the last month has been the result of not just five years but 30 years of internal division within your Party.

    The Conservative Party, once the most pro-EU of the three parties, is now the most anti-EU (as distinct from anti-European which it isn't) and that journey has left the divisions unresolved. Yes, they can and were masked in Opposition after 1997 because frankly no one was interested in what the Conservatives under Hague, IDS and Howard said.

    I suppose the Conservative hope is once we actually leave the EU all this will go away and quieten it but I'm far less convinced.
    The only way this would be resolved is a remain win in a referendum at 60% +
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,557
    Rory presented a history series premised on how Hadrians Wall artificially splits Britain into England and Scotland but then shows the histories of kingdoms that spanned the Wall quite happily showing it didn't act as a border at all.
  • *cough* Some of us did say quite shortly after the referendum result that a deliberately atrocious deal might be negotiated to persuade us to end up remaining.

    I do wonder if the deal will end up passing the Commons. At the moment, sitting on the 6.5 for a second referendum.

    Believing that there's anything deliberate or deliberated in the current bourach would take a leap of imagination of which I'm just not capable.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,963

    stodge said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    I'm not a Conservative and you did sterling work standing up for the Prime Minister and her Deal yesterday but is that really the point?

    When Cameron started us down this path in 2013 it was partly to deal with the threat of a slow leak of Conservative support to UKIP but when he won the 2015 GE (which I think was as much a surprise to him as it was to me) he saw an opportunity to use his personal popularity to take the issue and put it in front of the electorate and the people would trust him on this as they had at the GE. Had Remain won by 2:1 I doubt the issue would have seriously risen again within the Conservative Party - UKIP would have faded to the margins and been talked about as often as Eagles talks about AV.

    But it wasn't and the result amplified the long existing division within the Conservative Party and everything that has happened since then and especially in the last month has been the result of not just five years but 30 years of internal division within your Party.

    The Conservative Party, once the most pro-EU of the three parties, is now the most anti-EU (as distinct from anti-European which it isn't) and that journey has left the divisions unresolved. Yes, they can and were masked in Opposition after 1997 because frankly no one was interested in what the Conservatives under Hague, IDS and Howard said.

    I suppose the Conservative hope is once we actually leave the EU all this will go away and quieten it but I'm far less convinced.
    The only way this would be resolved is a remain win in a referendum at 60% +
    An outcome which is no longer completely impossible IMO. The Brexit project is crumbling before our eyes.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat

    For which he then apologised.

    If telling fibs during interviews was the test your beloved leader would be in loads of trouble. See the porkies he told Jon Snow about when he stopped giving interviews to Press TV, for instance.
    Good point. I won't be backing Jeremy Corbyn for next leader of the Conservative Party either.
  • Most unusually, my mum raised the subject of Brexit earlier in the week asking me what I thought was going to happen next (she's interested in politics in a "civic duty" kind of way rather than a geeky way, but doesn't go looking for arguments so she doesn't like to talk about it much). I was non-committal - you know me, always shy to give my opinion. She then said "your dad always said that we'd leave without a deal. He was always adamant about that, that they wouldn't agree on anything."

    He and I didn't talk about politics so this was news to me. He might yet be right though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Raab's being quickly found out isn't he ?
  • If you voted Leave on the issue of sovereignty, and you perceive the Backstop as a loss of sovereignty, it is perfectly reasonable to say that Remain is better than May's deal.
  • Last nights locals were quite good for the conservatives, last nights question time saw Clive Lewis and labour attacked and general support for TM and the deal

    Labour do not seem to be cutting through and Corbyn's response at the dispatch box was really poor.

    It does look like ERG are going to lose their prize but I am not convinced labour will gain much credit over this
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,682


    The only way this would be resolved is a remain win in a referendum at 60% +

    So where do you all go if this is never resolved? If all that unites you is fear of Jeremy Corbyn that will only work while Corbyn plays along but if he goes and a centrist takes back Labour and pulls it back to the centre and looks shiny and new (remind you of anyone?) your Party will be finished for a decade.

    In that time in Opposition, you can a) talk in circles about Europe and b) consider how much talking about Europe prevented you from doing what your Party is supposed to be about - improving the lives of the citizens of the United Kingdom.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687
    TOPPING said:



    One of the quotes I recall reading about was a US army bod saying:"If I hear one more word about Northern Ireland I'll shoot the lot of you myself."

    Or similar.

    The USAF liaison at Basra Airport used to call the British forces "The Borrowers" such was our lack of almost everything and subsequent scrounging. The Italian Air Force security dogs ate better than us.
  • Mr. Divvie, generally I'd agree with you. But May's deal seems almost designed to please no-one. It is possible she's so incredibly incompetent it merely appears she's a Machiavellian pro-EU sort (similar to the Jar Jar Binks = Sith theory).
  • *cough* Some of us did say quite shortly after the referendum result that a deliberately atrocious deal might be negotiated to persuade us to end up remaining.

    I do wonder if the deal will end up passing the Commons. At the moment, sitting on the 6.5 for a second referendum.

    Do you think the deal is atrocious ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited November 2018

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
    May's plan gets through, I think we have something like a 2015 redux in the polls. UKIP rises in the polling but the Tories ultimtely win.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
  • stodge said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    I'm not a Conservative and you did sterling work standing up for the Prime Minister and her Deal yesterday but is that really the point?

    When Cameron started us down this path in 2013 it was partly to deal with the threat of a slow leak of Conservative support to UKIP but when he won the 2015 GE (which I think was as much a surprise to him as it was to me) he saw an opportunity to use his personal popularity to take the issue and put it in front of the electorate and the people would trust him on this as they had at the GE. Had Remain won by 2:1 I doubt the issue would have seriously risen again within the Conservative Party - UKIP would have faded to the margins and been talked about as often as Eagles talks about AV.

    But it wasn't and the result amplified the long existing division within the Conservative Party and everything that has happened since then and especially in the last month has been the result of not just five years but 30 years of internal division within your Party.

    The Conservative Party, once the most pro-EU of the three parties, is now the most anti-EU (as distinct from anti-European which it isn't) and that journey has left the divisions unresolved. Yes, they can and were masked in Opposition after 1997 because frankly no one was interested in what the Conservatives under Hague, IDS and Howard said.

    I suppose the Conservative hope is once we actually leave the EU all this will go away and quieten it but I'm far less convinced.
    The only way this would be resolved is a remain win in a referendum at 60% +
    An outcome which is no longer completely impossible IMO. The Brexit project is crumbling before our eyes.
    It does look like it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Pulpstar said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
    May's plan gets through, I think we have something like a 2015 redux in the polls. UKIP rises in the polling but the Tories ultimtely win.
    Indeed hence Tories now 39% Labour 36% and UKIP 6% with Yougov
  • Pulpstar said:

    I've seen Rory the Tory a few times on QT a couple of years back, his defence of May's plan on the airwaves is night and day from that.
    He has improved and developed as an MP and now minister. Can he become the next leader ? Doubtful but I'm not laying him at 1-100 either.

    I think a lot depends on when the 'Next Leader' market opens up - if its in the next 6 months, no, if its in 18 months or more it might depend on what job he gets next - if May gives him a relatively senior one he might be in with a shot.

    OT pleasantly surprised by Dianne Abbott on R4 this morning on 'should we return antiquities to Africa?' - instead of the "imperialism is a disgrace we should be ashamed and send it all back" I was expecting a much more thoughtful reflection on the pros & cons - making the point that sometimes this is better left to specialists than politicians and that only about 5% of the British Museum's collection is actually on display.
  • stodge said:


    The only way this would be resolved is a remain win in a referendum at 60% +

    So where do you all go if this is never resolved? If all that unites you is fear of Jeremy Corbyn that will only work while Corbyn plays along but if he goes and a centrist takes back Labour and pulls it back to the centre and looks shiny and new (remind you of anyone?) your Party will be finished for a decade.

    In that time in Opposition, you can a) talk in circles about Europe and b) consider how much talking about Europe prevented you from doing what your Party is supposed to be about - improving the lives of the citizens of the United Kingdom.
    If labour was pulled back to the Centre, then I'd be pretty comfortable with them in power. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Raab's being quickly found out isn't he ?

    There is a theme developing with ERG - incompetence comes to mind
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    Not sure about this steady hand thing. Isn't he the guy who was caught out making up a statistic in the heat of an interview?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat

    On the other hand - and unusually for a politician - he immediately withdrew it and gave a proper apology.

    Other politicians could learn from that ...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,977
    Mr Meeks,

    Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.

    As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
    For the extreme Brexiteers that will be a price worth paying.

    They might even be able to shut down the NHS and welfare state if Corbyn completely bankrupted Britain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
    Nope, virtually no chance No Deal beats Remain as about 10% to 20% of the Leave vote was soft Brexiteers who would switch to Remain over the economic damage of No Deal.

    Remember Leave only scraped 52% with single market backers, 'easiest deal in history' believers and immigration haters and Singapore lovers all in its tent
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    Alistair said:

    Rory presented a history series premised on how Hadrians Wall artificially splits Britain into England and Scotland but then shows the histories of kingdoms that spanned the Wall quite happily showing it didn't act as a border at all.

    From memory, I think his point was slightly different to that.
  • *cough* Some of us did say quite shortly after the referendum result that a deliberately atrocious deal might be negotiated to persuade us to end up remaining.

    I do wonder if the deal will end up passing the Commons. At the moment, sitting on the 6.5 for a second referendum.

    I don't think a deal could ever have been seen as anything other than atrocious by some. If it involves compromising with the EU then it becomes atrocious by definition, because the EU is axiomatically seen as being entirely hostile to Britain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
    Nope, virtually no chance No Deal beats Remain as about 10% to 20% of the Leave vote was soft Brexiteers who would switch to Remain over the economic damage of No Deal.

    Remember Leave only scraped 52% with single market backers, 'easiest deal in history' believers and immigration haters and Singapore lovers all in its tent
    10-20% of the Remain vote I'm sure would be susceptible to the "who governs Britain" argument.
  • stodge said:


    The only way this would be resolved is a remain win in a referendum at 60% +

    So where do you all go if this is never resolved? If all that unites you is fear of Jeremy Corbyn that will only work while Corbyn plays along but if he goes and a centrist takes back Labour and pulls it back to the centre and looks shiny and new (remind you of anyone?) your Party will be finished for a decade.

    In that time in Opposition, you can a) talk in circles about Europe and b) consider how much talking about Europe prevented you from doing what your Party is supposed to be about - improving the lives of the citizens of the United Kingdom.
    If a centrist took over labour the political climate would change.

    As far as your last paragraph is concerned you should have noticed how I have called out ERG - they do not represent me anymore than Corbynistas represent the majority of labour mps

    If my party was taken over by UKIP/ ERG it would not be my party anymore
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 713
    Yes I like Rory Stewart too. A man of real ability and (I sense) personal integrity. Definitely cabinet material. But a realistic contender for the top job? No I don't think so. He has a quirky face and his shoulders are not very wide.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.

    He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
    Genuine question: what was the issue with his time in Iraq?
    His job was to mediate between the occupying forces and the tribal structure while espousing the joys of participatory democracy. By the time he was evacuated from his besieged compound the province was in civil war and the British had utterly lost control. Does that sound like a job well done?

    The British waltzed into Basra with a great deal of hubris about how we were the masters of counter insurgency and police action. We then got soundly defeated both militarily and diplomatically. Nobody involved, and I include myself, deserves an iota of credit.
    You served. I give you more than an iota of credit for that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
    Nope, virtually no chance No Deal beats Remain as about 10% to 20% of the Leave vote was soft Brexiteers who would switch to Remain over the economic damage of No Deal.

    Remember Leave only scraped 52% with single market backers, 'easiest deal in history' believers and immigration haters and Singapore lovers all in its tent
    10-20% of the Remain vote I'm sure would be susceptible to the "who governs Britain" argument.
    If they voted Remain last time no Remainers are switching
  • Mr. Me, seems more people dislike the deal than like it.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
    At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
    At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
    Remain only happens if voters back it in EUref2
  • CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.

    As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.

    To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.

    A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057

    HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
    Any second referendum quickly becomes framed as the PM asking "Who governs Britain - we the politicians or you the voters?"

    Ted Heath might have had some advice on asking the voters who governs Britain....
  • Most excellent thread header Mike. Hurrah!

    One or two of us have been punting on Rory for some time.
  • So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
    At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
    No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
  • Pulpstar said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
    Not necessarily. Brexit happens as things stand and the Conservatives are not going to put forward primary legislation to change that. A change of trajectory back to Remain will only come about through a Labour amendment supported by a minority of Conservative MPs. In those circumstances many Leave-supporting Labour seats could be up for grabs. The Conservatives are also greatly aided by the decision of UKIP to transform itself into a party appealing only to far right extremists.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    HYUFD said:

    So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC

    ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC

    I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation

    They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.

    And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
    Why Corbyn
    Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.

    Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
    Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
    At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
    Remain only happens if voters back it in EUref2
    If they do, every ill in Britain then belong EU - an the politician who stopped us leaving it.

    And then it is just a matter of time before it becomes "best of three" - and dominates domestic politics. As the EU will quickly spot.

    God knows why they would want us "back for a bit".
  • Mr. Mark, there'd be an argument to try and frame the debate in the most helpful way for position X.

    However, the options are critical. If it's May's rubbish deal versus Remain, I maintain that Remain will win handily.

    If it's Leave (with no deal) versus Remain, that'll be tighter.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.

    As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.

    To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.

    A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
    It helps that UKIP are showing their true colours by aligning with the odious Tommy Robinson. As have too many posters on here, sadly.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,100
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
    Nope, virtually no chance No Deal beats Remain as about 10% to 20% of the Leave vote was soft Brexiteers who would switch to Remain over the economic damage of No Deal.

    Remember Leave only scraped 52% with single market backers, 'easiest deal in history' believers and immigration haters and Singapore lovers all in its tent
    10-20% of the Remain vote I'm sure would be susceptible to the "who governs Britain" argument.
    If they voted Remain last time no Remainers are switching
    Bold statement. Already we have our own @Richard_Nabavi voting Leave next time if there were to be a second referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,263

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.

    As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.

    To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.

    A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
    The withdrawal agreement might lose a vote in the Commons but that won’t mean it’s junked. It will still be the only route to an orderly Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.

    As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.

    To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.

    A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
    As a matter of checking the facts, and I think the answer is "No" - could parliament get through legislation for a referendum without the explicit backing of the Gov't ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 20,622
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.

    I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
    Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
    My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).

    That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
    Any second referendum quickly becomes framed as the PM asking "Who governs Britain - we the politicians or you the voters?"

    Ted Heath might have had some advice on asking the voters who governs Britain....
    If a referendum arrives it will have gone through a tortuous process and it will need leaders for the arguments. I would expect TM or whoever is PM to remain neutral ready to act on the verdict
  • Anyways, I think that we're all looking in the wrong place for next leader. There's only one man of rock hard rectitude and adamantium spine for the job.



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