As ever, since it is impossible to "not commit to go" you end up "committing not to go", but really meaning the former. May won't incentivise those in the party that want her out.
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Before he started talking about rape gangs, Robinson had been jailed for assault (2005), for illegally entering the United States using a false passport (2012) for a £160,000 mortgage fraud (2014). He's also had convictions for drugs offences and public order offences.
Do you think the political classes went back in time and framed Robinson for all these offences? Or maybe, just maybe, the reason he keeps getting locked up is because he keeps breaking the law, and is among the last people you'd ever want to talk to on law and order issues?
the political classses commit most of these offences already and more , he'll fit right in
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
This is what she is saying. She just repeated it. Where the idea that she has ruled out No Deal has come from I don't know. She keeps saying we will leave on March 29. She is silent on Plan B if her deal falls. Therefore No Deal is default position.
Perhaps the Conservative Party could stop navel gazing and start thinking about consequences.
Which John McD is the real one?
Last week he was in the Newstatesman posing as a mild mannered provincial bank manager, reassuring everyone that hardly anyone would pay more tax and that everything had to be done in a sensible, restrained manner, because they need to reach out to ordinary middle income voters.
This week, he seems to be rebuilding Britain as modern version of the Soviets.
I'm not sure you understand his political philosophy at all. The entire point is that the system concentrates wealth into a tiny elite which is certainly much, much smaller than the top 5%- and that's not even starting on the difference between income and wealth (which is far less equally distributed). Focusing on a small percentage rather than taxing the 20% to benefit the 80% isn't a compromise to electability, it's a central feature of his politics.
Whether any of this is realistic or achievable is, of course, an entirely different question.
I don't think wealth is that highly concentrated. Yes, the top 1% are very rich, but the median household has net wealth of £278,000.
If he just wants to redistribute the wealth of the 1 or 2 top %, why does he go on about overthrowing capitalism?
Which is it?
Some redistribution of wealth or destroying our entire economic system?
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Before he started talking about rape gangs, Robinson had been jailed for assault (2005), for illegally entering the United States using a false passport (2012) for a £160,000 mortgage fraud (2014). He's also had convictions for drugs offences and public order offences.
Do you think the political classes went back in time and framed Robinson for all these offences? Or maybe, just maybe, the reason he keeps getting locked up is because he keeps breaking the law, and is among the last people you'd ever want to talk to on law and order issues?
He was charged and convicted within 24 hours for filming outside the court room. Compare that with these gangs being allowed to operate unchecked, some for over 30 years. Yes I do think the establishment are more concerned with locking up people who criticise the gangs than being in them.
He was well known to the authorities in 2014 when they jailed him for his incorrect mortgage application. Illegal yes, but something that happened hundreds of thousands of times during the mid-2000s with liar loans and Northern Rock et al. The fact that he was singled out I do believe to be a political decision yes.
2012 he was refused entry on own his passport because of political leanings (he was head of the EDL at the time), so he illegally used someone else's.
I'm not sure how this is the authorities going back in time exactly.
I'm not showing "support" for Tommy Robinson. I don't know that much about him, and I don't want to delve in too deep in case I find he's not as bad as everyone claims as then I'd be accused of racism by association. I'm just pointing out the focus of the authorities by the things they are most concerned about.
The 100/1 on David Lidington as Next PM (Wm Hill, Fred, Betway) might not be a bad bet. As Vernon Bogdanor points out, if Theresa May goes, there could be an caretaker PM in place whilst the leadership contest happens, and it would have to be someone who's not in the running. He's deputy PM and a safe pair of hands. It's a long shot, but possibly one worth taking at those odds. DYOR, etc. (I'm on for a couple of quid at 500/1, from a few weeks ago).
Note: Formally there's no such thing as a 'caretaker PM', so I think the bet would pay out in these circumstances, but check the exact terms.
Lidlington has no chance of becoming Tory leader. He is the ultimate europhile, worse than Clarke, Soubry, Greening etc and has zero appeal with party members. The idea of him leading a General Election campaign is simply not credible.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
This is what she is saying. She just repeated it. Where the idea that she has ruled out No Deal has come from I don't know. She keeps saying we will leave on March 29. She is silent on Plan B if her deal falls. Therefore No Deal is default position.
Then the charge of gross negligence stands. By saying that, she is playing Russian roulette with MPs, trying to force them into accepting her deal by baulking at no deal with no preparation. Frankly if 48 MPs can’t be found to write letters in such circumstances, then we deserve a Corbyn Gov.
The 100/1 on David Lidington as Next PM (Wm Hill, Fred, Betway) might not be a bad bet. As Vernon Bogdanor points out, if Theresa May goes, there could be an caretaker PM in place whilst the leadership contest happens, and it would have to be someone who's not in the running. He's deputy PM and a safe pair of hands. It's a long shot, but possibly one worth taking at those odds. DYOR, etc. (I'm on for a couple of quid at 500/1, from a few weeks ago).
Note: Formally there's no such thing as a 'caretaker PM', so I think the bet would pay out in these circumstances, but check the exact terms.
Lidlington has no chance of becoming Tory leader. He is the ultimate europhile, worse than Clarke, Soubry, Greening etc and has zero appeal with party members. The idea of him leading a General Election campaign is simply not credible.
The idea is that he would be temporary PM, whilst the next leader was found by election via party members.
It only happens if May resigns and goes that day, before the contest, and the Cabinet agrees that the deputy should take over for a few weeks.
The 100/1 on David Lidington as Next PM (Wm Hill, Fred, Betway) might not be a bad bet. As Vernon Bogdanor points out, if Theresa May goes, there could be an caretaker PM in place whilst the leadership contest happens, and it would have to be someone who's not in the running. He's deputy PM and a safe pair of hands. It's a long shot, but possibly one worth taking at those odds. DYOR, etc. (I'm on for a couple of quid at 500/1, from a few weeks ago).
Note: Formally there's no such thing as a 'caretaker PM', so I think the bet would pay out in these circumstances, but check the exact terms.
Lidlington has no chance of becoming Tory leader. He is the ultimate europhile, worse than Clarke, Soubry, Greening etc and has zero appeal with party members. The idea of him leading a General Election campaign is simply not credible.
He might be the next PM though.
Tory leader on Totesport (Where I'm not banned or heavily restricted) is after a contest.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
When leavers prefer to remain than the only leaving option on the table then you know that the game is up.
The leavers were the ones who said how easy it would be and the EU would let us cherrypick. They are clearly emabarrassed that all their stupid statements in the referendum will now be thrown back at them. They would prefer to remain so they can keep saying how much better life would be outside of the EU rather than face the reality of the referendum result.
The 100/1 on David Lidington as Next PM (Wm Hill, Fred, Betway) might not be a bad bet. As Vernon Bogdanor points out, if Theresa May goes, there could be an caretaker PM in place whilst the leadership contest happens, and it would have to be someone who's not in the running. He's deputy PM and a safe pair of hands. It's a long shot, but possibly one worth taking at those odds. DYOR, etc. (I'm on for a couple of quid at 500/1, from a few weeks ago).
Note: Formally there's no such thing as a 'caretaker PM', so I think the bet would pay out in these circumstances, but check the exact terms.
Lidlington has no chance of becoming Tory leader. He is the ultimate europhile, worse than Clarke, Soubry, Greening etc and has zero appeal with party members. The idea of him leading a General Election campaign is simply not credible.
The idea is that he would be temporary PM, whilst the next leader was found by election via party members.
It only happens if May resigns and goes that day, before the contest, and the Cabinet agrees that the deputy should take over for a few weeks.
He still has no chance because he doesn’t believe in Brexit. I have seen Davis mentioned as a caretaker PM and he would be far more credible.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
If you prepare for it, you make it more likely. Likewise with preparing to Remain (i.e. moving to enable a second referendum). Since her preferred policy is neither, she is following the only course she can. She may of course run out of road.
At present there are two groups against this compromise Deal, both hoping to get their preferred outcome instead. They can't both win, so they're both playing with fire.
Though, to be fair to them, the No Dealers could potentially get a change to the Deal. This is an alternative resolution to an initial rejection by Parliament (as opposed to the TARP vote-again-in-panic scenario).
May can't resign until she can recommend a successor to Her Majesty. She'd need grounds to recommend Liddington. At least a Cabinet recommendation with the DUP publicly supporting to provide evidence he could command a majority in the House. She'd also need very good reasons in PR terms not to hang on until the Tories elected her replacement. There is no such thing as Acting PM in the constitution. You'd be talking about making someone voters had never heard of and no one outside the cabinet had voted for to be actual PM for a few weeks/months during a leadership election merely because she wanted to bugger off slightly early. Then with Corbyn's anti establishment hue Labour are very likely to test it via a confidence vote or cause a row by arguing Corbyn should have been called first if May went with no new Conservative leader in place. The optics of May simply not waiting til the Tories had a new leader are chaotic and spiteful.
This post pretty much sums up the disconnect between the political class and a lot of ordinary working class people.
Literally anyone who publicly shows concern for extreme Islam and the child rape gangs (that seem to be operating in every town in Britain with a sizeable Pakistani community) is accused of being a disgusting racist who is only doing it because they hate "Pakis".
In fact the political class gets far more agitated about him bringing attention to these cases than the actual rape of girls in their thousands. It's facilitating rape on an industrial scale whilst simultaneously patting themselves on the back about what wonderful people they are (whilst making sure them and their children live as far away from these areas as they possibly can).
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Meanwhile the rapes continue unhindered and extreme Islam continues to grow.
If someone like Trump ever gets in they'll be the first ones asking BUT WHY!?
Oh get real!
It is not Tommy Robinson who brought attention to these cases. It was a load of brave people - mostly women - who spoke up about it and wrote reports on it - and it was a prosecutor (a Muslim as it happened) who started the process of putting these men on trial and locking them up. Robinson's only contribution was to try and stymie the trials so that the accused would have got off. And he could then have posed as some sort of martyr. People like him care nothing for abused girls. They are pawns in a pretty transparent game Robinson and people like him are playing. Only for those girls none of this is a game. If UKIP were really concerned about grooming gangs they would be agitating for the government to provide the girls with the help and support they need.
Second, the majority of child abusers in this country are not Pakistani men but white men. Children and girls are abused by a whole range of people not just one particular group. So let's not pretend that this is only an issue for this group.
And finally I am no friend of extreme Islam and have been pretty vocal on here - both above and below the line - about some of its malign manifestations e.g. the attacks on free speech (as evidenced by, for instance, the Charlie Hebdo attacks), the attacks on Jews, attitudes to women etc etc. And I have never been accused of being a racist.
But people like Robinson are racists and they should be called out on it.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
If you prepare for it, you make it more likely. Likewise with preparing to Remain (i.e. moving to enable a second referendum). Since her preferred policy is neither, she is following the only course she can. She may of course run out of road.
At present there are two groups against this compromise Deal, both hoping to get their preferred outcome instead. They can't both win, so they're both playing with fire.
Though, to be fair to them, the No Dealers could potentially get a change to the Deal. This is an alternative resolution to an initial rejection by Parliament (as opposed to the TARP vote-again-in-panic scenario).
If the deal is changed, the new QMV vote by other EU members may well fail.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
If you prepare for it, you make it more likely. Likewise with preparing to Remain (i.e. moving to enable a second referendum). Since her preferred policy is neither, she is following the only course she can. She may of course run out of road.
At present there are two groups against this compromise Deal, both hoping to get their preferred outcome instead. They can't both win, so they're both playing with fire.
Though, to be fair to them, the No Dealers could potentially get a change to the Deal. This is an alternative resolution to an initial rejection by Parliament (as opposed to the TARP vote-again-in-panic scenario).
If you don’t prepare for no deal you have to take what you are given, which is what May is doing. There is nothing in her deal worth having.
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Before he started talking about rape gangs, Robinson had been jailed for assault (2005), for illegally entering the United States using a false passport (2012) for a £160,000 mortgage fraud (2014). He's also had convictions for drugs offences and public order offences.
Do you think the political classes went back in time and framed Robinson for all these offences? Or maybe, just maybe, the reason he keeps getting locked up is because he keeps breaking the law, and is among the last people you'd ever want to talk to on law and order issues?
He was charged and convicted within 24 hours for filming outside the court room. Compare that with these gangs being allowed to operate unchecked, some for over 30 years. Yes I do think the establishment are more concerned with locking up people who criticise the gangs than being in them.
He was well known to the authorities in 2014 when they jailed him for his incorrect mortgage application. Illegal yes, but something that happened hundreds of thousands of times during the mid-2000s with liar loans and Northern Rock et al. The fact that he was singled out I do believe to be a political decision yes.
2012 he was refused entry on own his passport because of political leanings (he was head of the EDL at the time), so he illegally used someone else's.
I'm not sure how this is the authorities going back in time exactly.
I'm not showing "support" for Tommy Robinson. I don't know that much about him, and I don't want to delve in too deep in case I find he's not as bad as everyone claims as then I'd be accused of racism by association. I'm just pointing out the focus of the authorities by the things they are most concerned about.
I note you skipped over how he was jailed for assault and has been convicted on drugs charges. Even while skipping over those, you concede that he has repeatedly broken the law.
If you've got previous, you're more likely to get a harsher sentence. If Robinson is locked up, it's because he is a serial offender, not because of his political views. If UKIP want someone who has campaigned on gang rapes, there are plenty of people who can do that job who do not have extensive criminal histories.
May can't resign until she can recommend a successor to Her Majesty. She'd need grounds to recommend Liddington. At least a Cabinet recommendation with the DUP publicly supporting to provide evidence he could command a majority in the House. She'd also need very good reasons in PR terms not to hang on until the Tories elected her replacement. There is no such thing as Acting PM in the constitution. You'd be talking about making someone voters had never heard of and no one outside the cabinet had voted for to be actual PM for a few weeks/months during a leadership election merely because she wanted to bugger off slightly early. Then with Corbyn's anti establishment hue Labour are very likely to test it via a confidence vote or cause a row by arguing Corbyn should have been called first if May went with no new Conservative leader in place. The optics of May simply not waiting til the Tories had a new leader are chaotic and spiteful.
There's more than one way to construct a majority. If Theresa May resigns, different ones will probably need to be found.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
Can I just say, completely off topic, that what UKIP is doing teaming up with Tommy Robinson is an utter disgrace. I hope UKIP disappear.
But to give airtime to that man - a convicted fraudster, a man who doesn't give a toss about poor girls being raped except insofar as it allows him to pose as some sort of a "defender of his people" and get gullible Americans and others to give him money so that he can live in a luxurious house in a gated community - shows that UKIP have lost what little moral compass they may ever have had.
God knows we do need to address the very real issues associated with integration of some Muslim communities and the attitude of some Muslim men to women and, indeed, the desirability of continued immigration into this country from parts of the Muslim world.
But this is absolutely not the way to do it. The disappearance of the BNP and the NF and similar groupuscules has been a good thing. We do not need their like resurrected now.
UKIP have always been like this, once you removed the facade UKIP have always been the BNP in blazers.
I did warn Kippers but they laughed it off.
UKIP might end up being a proscribed organisation like Combat 18 given the nasty side of the EDL.
Brexit has emboldened further.
It's not just the EDL side which I find repellent. Nor the fact that people like him care nothing about the girls; they are just a convenient peg on which to hang their dislike of "Pakis" (to use a phrase that used to be common amongst BNP types). These two factors alone should be enough.
But Robinson is so obviously a crook and a fraudster.
How can people be so taken in?
I know the answer: if over 100 MPs can sign a petition to let that self-pitying fraudster, Adoboli, stay in the country (now rightly deported) then what hope is there for a moron like Batten to have some common and moral sense.
Why can't people see what is in front of their nose???
Too many people will excuse anything that members of their own side do.
True.
It doesn't explain those daft MPs, though. Too many people are too willing to believe bullshit.
one mans bullshit is anothers fertiliser
You're not a gardener, are you? If you put fresh shit on plants, they die.
May can't resign until she can recommend a successor to Her Majesty. She'd need grounds to recommend Liddington. At least a Cabinet recommendation with the DUP publicly supporting to provide evidence he could command a majority in the House. She'd also need very good reasons in PR terms not to hang on until the Tories elected her replacement. There is no such thing as Acting PM in the constitution. You'd be talking about making someone voters had never heard of and no one outside the cabinet had voted for to be actual PM for a few weeks/months during a leadership election merely because she wanted to bugger off slightly early. Then with Corbyn's anti establishment hue Labour are very likely to test it via a confidence vote or cause a row by arguing Corbyn should have been called first if May went with no new Conservative leader in place. The optics of May simply not waiting til the Tories had a new leader are chaotic and spiteful.
There's more than one way to construct a majority. If Theresa May resigns, different ones will probably need to be found.
Not sure how many there are, actually.
A Tory leader either has to unite their on-paper majority, or get support from Labour. Other sources of significant support (LDs, SNP) are probably further away than Labour here.
A Labour leader has to win over some Tories, plus the SNP.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
Let me let you into a little secret, the costs of 'rules of origin'; customs tarriffs and other red tape aren't borne by the Government, they're borne by exporters, manufacturers and regular businesses....
If you don’t prepare for no deal you have to take what you are given, which is what May is doing. There is nothing in her deal worth having.
I disagree with that, for the reasons @Richard_Nabavi and @RobinWiggs have given downthread, though I do have reservations about the backstop in particular.
Starting the negotiations from a presumption of No Deal would have been a reasonable alternative approach, but it would have risked a lot of corporate flight from the UK (@rcs1000 wrote an excellent comment about this a week or so ago). Clearly a judgement call was made. The bottom line is that exiting is hard and Article 50 massively favours the EU.
Then there is the dynamic. In this scenario May has been ousted AND decided to walk immediately rather than wait a few weeks. In that sort of chaos re Brexit why are the PCP going accept an Uber establishment Remainer like Liddington as temporary PM ? Why not install a Brexiter elder statesperson to set the tone for the leadership election ?
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Before he started talking about rape gangs, Robinson had been jailed for assault (2005), for illegally entering the United States using a false passport (2012) for a £160,000 mortgage fraud (2014). He's also had convictions for drugs offences and public order offences.
Do you think the political classes went back in time and framed Robinson for all these offences? Or maybe, just maybe, the reason he keeps getting locked up is because he keeps breaking the law, and is among the last people you'd ever want to talk to on law and order issues?
He was charged and convicted within 24 hours for filming outside the court room. Compare that with these gangs being allowed to operate unchecked, some for over 30 years. Yes I do think the establishment are more concerned with locking up people who criticise the gangs than being in them.
He was well known to the authorities in 2014 when they jailed him for his incorrect mortgage application. Illegal yes, but something that happened hundreds of thousands of times during the mid-2000s with liar loans and Northern Rock et al. The fact that he was singled out I do believe to be a political decision yes.
2012 he was refused entry on own his passport because of political leanings (he was head of the EDL at the time), so he illegally used someone else's.
I'm not sure how this is the authorities going back in time exactly.
I'm not showing "support" for Tommy Robinson. I don't know that much about him, and I don't want to delve in too deep in case I find he's not as bad as everyone claims as then I'd be accused of racism by association. I'm just pointing out the focus of the authorities by the things they are most concerned about.
I note you skipped over how he was jailed for assault and has been convicted on drugs charges. Even while skipping over those, you concede that he has repeatedly broken the law.
If you've got previous, you're more likely to get a harsher sentence. If Robinson is locked up, it's because he is a serial offender, not because of his political views. If UKIP want someone who has campaigned on gang rapes, there are plenty of people who can do that job who do not have extensive criminal histories.
For example, Professor Jay who wrote the report on Rotherham and knows more about grooming gangs than Robinson ever will.
This post pretty much sums up the disconnect between the political class and a lot of ordinary working class people.
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Meanwhile the rapes continue unhindered and extreme Islam continues to grow.
If someone like Trump ever gets in they'll be the first ones asking BUT WHY!?
Oh get real!
It is not Tommy Robinson who brought attention to these cases. It was a load of brave people - mostly women - who spoke up about it and wrote reports on it - and it was a prosecutor (a Muslim as it happened) who started the process of putting these men on trial and locking them up. Robinson's only contribution was to try and stymie the trials so that the accused would have got off. And he could then have posed as some sort of martyr. People like him care nothing for abused girls. They are pawns in a pretty transparent game Robinson and people like him are playing. Only for those girls none of this is a game. If UKIP were really concerned about grooming gangs they would be agitating for the government to provide the girls with the help and support they need.
Second, the majority of child abusers in this country are not Pakistani men but white men. Children and girls are abused by a whole range of people not just one particular group. So let's not pretend that this is only an issue for this group.
And finally I am no friend of extreme Islam and have been pretty vocal on here - both above and below the line - about some of its malign manifestations e.g. the attacks on free speech (as evidenced by, for instance, the Charlie Hebdo attacks), the attacks on Jews, attitudes to women etc etc. And I have never been accused of being a racist.
But people like Robinson are racists and they should be called out on it.
Name another prominent politician that makes action against these gangs and extreme Islam a central part of their philosophy.
Who are all these non-racist politicians and parties that we can vote for to take action?
Then there is the dynamic. In this scenario May has been ousted AND decided to walk immediately rather than wait a few weeks. In that sort of chaos re Brexit why are the PCP going accept an Uber establishment Remainer like Liddington as temporary PM ? Why not install a Brexiter elder statesperson to set the tone for the leadership election ?
Doubt Liddington will be moving a second referendum whilst a contest takes place. More likely May stays on till it's all sorted I think; but 100-1 isn't bad odds for the walk immediately scenario.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
Let me let you into a little secret, the costs of 'rules of origin'; customs tarriffs and other red tape aren't borne by the Government, they're borne by exporters, manufacturers and regular businesses....
So no preparation is going to help these exporters? I am struggling to see your point.
Will May ever give a straight answer to a simple question?
I expect that if her deal fails she will change tack again. What to is anybody's guess. She seems to say something one day and then seemingly contradict it the day after. She rows one way and then the other, she is a tactical genius or hasn't really got a a clue what she's doing. I haven't quite decided which yet
May can't resign until she can recommend a successor to Her Majesty. She'd need grounds to recommend Liddington. At least a Cabinet recommendation with the DUP publicly supporting to provide evidence he could command a majority in the House. She'd also need very good reasons in PR terms not to hang on until the Tories elected her replacement. There is no such thing as Acting PM in the constitution. You'd be talking about making someone voters had never heard of and no one outside the cabinet had voted for to be actual PM for a few weeks/months during a leadership election merely because she wanted to bugger off slightly early. Then with Corbyn's anti establishment hue Labour are very likely to test it via a confidence vote or cause a row by arguing Corbyn should have been called first if May went with no new Conservative leader in place. The optics of May simply not waiting til the Tories had a new leader are chaotic and spiteful.
There's more than one way to construct a majority. If Theresa May resigns, different ones will probably need to be found.
Not sure how many there are, actually.
A Tory leader either has to unite their on-paper majority, or get support from Labour. Other sources of significant support (LDs, SNP) are probably further away than Labour here.
A Labour leader has to win over some Tories, plus the SNP.
I do not see how any Tory leader could unite the PCP on Brexit if May cannot. The opposition doesn't have enough MPs. The country doesn't want another GE and in any event there is a very high likelyhood that another hung parliament would result.
Some form of grand coalition of sensible MPs who wish to avoid a No Deal crash has to be the way forward.
There is no question of No Brexit. We will leave on March 29th. PM May. Clear as could be for once.
So Tory rebels have nothing to fear from voting her deal down then.
Well. Apparently not. 63 of the 81 declared Tory rebels are from that side. Attempting to pick off the rump of Remain and opposition votes seems futile, given the numbers. But hey ho what do I know?
There is no question of No Brexit. We will leave on March 29th. PM May. Clear as could be for once.
So it's Deal or No Deal on 29th March?
Increasingly likely actually Deal or Remain.
Both preferred to No Deal in Ashcroft's poll today and if May went expect new caretaker PM Lidington to force EUref2 through Parliament on a cross party basis.
I expect if May cannot get her Deal through and has to go she will recommend Deputy PM Lidington as PM to the Queen until a new Tory leader elected, he can then push through EUref2 which Remain likely wins and she gets her revenge on the ERG
May can't resign until she can recommend a successor to Her Majesty. She'd need grounds to recommend Liddington. At least a Cabinet recommendation with the DUP publicly supporting to provide evidence he could command a majority in the House. She'd also need very good reasons in PR terms not to hang on until the Tories elected her replacement. There is no such thing as Acting PM in the constitution. You'd be talking about making someone voters had never heard of and no one outside the cabinet had voted for to be actual PM for a few weeks/months during a leadership election merely because she wanted to bugger off slightly early. Then with Corbyn's anti establishment hue Labour are very likely to test it via a confidence vote or cause a row by arguing Corbyn should have been called first if May went with no new Conservative leader in place. The optics of May simply not waiting til the Tories had a new leader are chaotic and spiteful.
There's more than one way to construct a majority. If Theresa May resigns, different ones will probably need to be found.
Not sure how many there are, actually.
A Tory leader either has to unite their on-paper majority, or get support from Labour. Other sources of significant support (LDs, SNP) are probably further away than Labour here.
A Labour leader has to win over some Tories, plus the SNP.
I do not see how any Tory leader could unite the PCP on Brexit if May cannot. The opposition doesn't have enough MPs. The country doesn't want another GE and in any event there is a very high likelyhood that another hung parliament would result.
Some form of grand coalition of sensible MPs who wish to avoid a No Deal crash has to be the way forward.
Anna and Chuka aren't going to be forming a cabinet, and are miles away from becoming leader of their respective parties though !
Have to admire May going all out to sell her deal. It's almost George Foreman 'so good I put my name on it' territory.
But going over the heads of MPs to appeal to the public, while absolutely adamant that the public can have no say and have to be bound by 2016 - not sure she has really thought those optics through here.
Mrs May is asking the country to trust her on the deal, hoping the Leavers will believe it's the first step towards to full disengagement, and hoping the Remainers believe it gives them a breathing space to continue to argue their case, delay things and then possibly reverse Brexit.
The Labour Party wants to win power by blocking any successful disengagement so it can blame it on the Tories. The EU is the means to an end. However voting down the deal carries big risks if their fingerprints are all over an eventual no-deal Brexit.
My money, if I risked it, would be on the deal getting past the House. But as I wouldn't trust most politicians to find their own arseole with a roadmap and a compass, I wouldn't be shocked if it failed.
They'll demonise this bloke and find any excuse to lock him away forever using whatever pretext they can find and do exactly the same to the next bloke who tries to tackle these issues.
Before he started talking about rape gangs, Robinson had been jailed for assault (2005), for illegally entering the United States using a false passport (2012) for a £160,000 mortgage fraud (2014). He's also had convictions for drugs offences and public order offences.
Do you think the political classes went back in time and framed Robinson for all these offences? Or maybe, just maybe, the reason he keeps getting locked up is because he keeps breaking the law, and is among the last people you'd ever want to talk to on law and order issues?
He was charged and convicted within 24 hours for filming outside the court room. Compare that with these gangs being allowed to operate unchecked, some for over 30 years. Yes I do think the establishment are more concerned with locking up people who criticise the gangs than being in them.
He was well known to the authorities in 2014 when they jailed him for his incorrect mortgage application. Illegal yes, but something that happened hundreds of thousands of times during the mid-2000s with liar loans and Northern Rock et al. The fact that he was singled out I do believe to be a political decision yes.
2012 he was refused entry on own his passport because of political leanings (he was head of the EDL at the time), so he illegally used someone else's.
I'm not sure how this is the authorities going back in time exactly.
I'm not showing "support" for Tommy Robinson. I don't know that much about him, and I don't want to delve in too deep in case I find he's not as bad as everyone claims as then I'd be accused of racism by association. I'm just pointing out the focus of the authorities by the things they are most concerned about.
I note you skipped over how he was jailed for assault and has been convicted on drugs charges. Even while skipping over those, you concede that he has repeatedly broken the law.
If you've got previous, you're more likely to get a harsher sentence. If Robinson is locked up, it's because he is a serial offender, not because of his political views. If UKIP want someone who has campaigned on gang rapes, there are plenty of people who can do that job who do not have extensive criminal histories.
Sure. They didn't pore over his financial records at great expense to find something they could charge him with. It all happened due to standard procedure, they do that with everyone's mortgage applications.
Then there is the dynamic. In this scenario May has been ousted AND decided to walk immediately rather than wait a few weeks. In that sort of chaos re Brexit why are the PCP going accept an Uber establishment Remainer like Liddington as temporary PM ? Why not install a Brexiter elder statesperson to set the tone for the leadership election ?
Doubt Liddington will be moving a second referendum whilst a contest takes place. More likely May stays on till it's all sorted I think; but 100-1 isn't bad odds for the walk immediately scenario.
Also covers the black swan scenarios where May is not in a position to resign,
Perhaps the Conservative Party could stop navel gazing and start thinking about consequences.
Which John McD is the real one?
Last week he was in the Newstatesman posing as a mild mannered provincial bank manager, reassuring everyone that hardly anyone would pay more tax and that everything had to be done in a sensible, restrained manner, because they need to reach out to ordinary middle income voters.
This week, he seems to be rebuilding Britain as modern version of the Soviets.
I'm not sure you understand his political philosophy at all. The entire point is that the system concentrates wealth into a tiny elite which is certainly much, much smaller than the top 5%- and that's not even starting on the difference between income and wealth (which is far less equally distributed). Focusing on a small percentage rather than taxing the 20% to benefit the 80% isn't a compromise to electability, it's a central feature of his politics.
Whether any of this is realistic or achievable is, of course, an entirely different question.
I don't think wealth is that highly concentrated. Yes, the top 1% are very rich, but the median household has net wealth of £278,000.
If he just wants to redistribute the wealth of the 1 or 2 top %, why does he go on about overthrowing capitalism?
Which is it?
Some redistribution of wealth or destroying our entire economic system?
I wish I knew.
But they could spend an A4 page on enumerating the tax fiddles - sorry, 'advantageous tax planning' - available to the well-off, especially those not on PAYE or whose growing wealth comes more from capital gains than from income. Then quote some of the really bad examples in speeches. Keep on doing it.
Even Warren Buffett thinks that the US tax system is grossly unfair. The UK is rarely slow in following the USA. At least he plans to give away 99%, although 99.9% would be an improvement as it would leave his heirs with $85,000,000.
I see Dominic Raab's painfully slow education is continuing. Having recently discovered that Britain is an island off the coast of France he is now in the process of learning that there is no post-Brexit deal better for the UK than being inside the EU.
The level of ignorance is shocking. Lord knows where this is all going to end. However, I don't see Leave winning a second referendum. My inclination is increasingly that we'll end up staying and that is some comfort as I think a JC government which will be soon upon us needs such an external force to curb its likely excesses.
And that’s the problem with the EU in a nutshell
I think that a Corbyn government would be terrible outcome for the country. But if the people vote for it they should get it. Ot shouldn’t be possible for the losers to rely on “an external force to curb its likely excesses”
Have to admire May going all out to sell her deal. It's almost George Foreman 'so good I put my name on it' territory.
But going over the heads of MPs to appeal to the public, while absolutely adamant that the public can have no say and have to bound by 2016 - not sure she has really thought those optics through here.
If it leads to a consensus that May did her best but Brexit is rubbish, I don’t see the downside for her. She can ultimately relent on a people’s vote, or wait for the Brexiteers to throw in the towel.
I am quite surprised Rory the Tory hasn’t jacked in the MP lark. He has played the game for 10 years and despite being competent he gets overlooked time and time again. I am sure lots of other governments and NGOs would be more than happy to employ his services.
There is no question of No Brexit. We will leave on March 29th. PM May. Clear as could be for once.
So it's Deal or No Deal on 29th March?
Increasingly likely actually Deal or Remain.
Both preferred to No Deal in Ashcroft's poll today and if May went expect new caretaker PM Lidington to force EUref2 through Parliament on a cross party basis.
I expect if May cannot get her Deal through and has to go she will recommend Deputy PM Lidington as PM to the Queen until a new Tory leader elected, he can then push through EUref2 which Remain likely wins and she gets her revenge on the ERG
I actually think this scenario, as outlandish and crazy as it might seem, now has a reasonable chance of happening. Funny old world.
I see Dominic Raab's painfully slow education is continuing. Having recently discovered that Britain is an island off the coast of France he is now in the process of learning that there is no post-Brexit deal better for the UK than being inside the EU.
The level of ignorance is shocking. Lord knows where this is all going to end. However, I don't see Leave winning a second referendum. My inclination is increasingly that we'll end up staying and that is some comfort as I think a JC government which will be soon upon us needs such an external force to curb its likely excesses.
And that’s the problem with the EU in a nutshell
I think that a Corbyn government would be terrible outcome for the country. But if the people vote for it they should get it. Ot shouldn’t be possible for the losers to rely on “an external force to curb its likely excesses”
You’re in favour of elected dictatorships without constitutional checks?
Oh dear. This leak suggests the EU27 are going to publish a further statement on the Future Relationship at Sunday's EUCO 9n top of the Political Declaration. Fish and Level Playing field mainly. If true, a big caveat, that's dynamite. It also suggests the member states who think Barnier went too far to solve the Backstop issue via TCA are pushing back hard.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
And then when there is a deal people would go mental for all the money wasted on no deal preparations.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
And then when there is a deal people would go mental for all the money wasted on no deal preparations.
They really wouldn't.
It's called insurance. A concept not exactly alien to voters....
Perhaps the Conservative Party could stop navel gazing and start thinking about consequences.
Which John McD is the real one?
Last week he was in the Newstatesman posing as a mild mannered provincial bank manager, reassuring everyone that hardly anyone would pay more tax and that everything had to be done in a sensible, restrained manner, because they need to reach out to ordinary middle income voters.
This week, he seems to be rebuilding Britain as modern version of the Soviets.
I'm not sure you understand his political philosophy at all. The entire point is that the system concentrates wealth into a tiny elite which is certainly much, much smaller than the top 5%- and that's not even starting on the difference between income and wealth (which is far less equally distributed). Focusing on a small percentage rather than taxing the 20% to benefit the 80% isn't a compromise to electability, it's a central feature of his politics.
Whether any of this is realistic or achievable is, of course, an entirely different question.
I don't think wealth is that highly concentrated. Yes, the top 1% are very rich, but the median household has net wealth of £278,000.
If he just wants to redistribute the wealth of the 1 or 2 top %, why does he go on about overthrowing capitalism?
Which is it?
Some redistribution of wealth or destroying our entire economic system?
To be honest we've needed a reset in this country for years. For example house prices and rents are far too high for the young to ever have a decent life. The time for house prices to fall was in 2008 during the banking crisis, but consecutive governments have propped them up at taxpayers expense.
Maybe a no deal Brexit or Corbyn disaster will be the reset the country needs.
Iceland had a bigger reset in 2008 when they didn't bail out the banks and everyone told them they were crazy. They've recovered to be doing better than us now.
I am quite surprised Rory the Tory hasn’t jacked in the MP lark. He has played the game for 10 years and despite being competent he gets overlooked time and time again. I am sure lots of other governments and NGOs would be more than happy to employ his services.
Perhaps he is one of the MPs who believes in public service? Perhaps he thinks he is doing a good job for his constituents and the country? Perhaps he enjoys it?
ISTR he set up a charity - I assume he's still involved with it.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
And then when there is a deal people would go mental for all the money wasted on no deal preparations.
They really wouldn't.
It's called insurance. A concept not exactly alien to voters....
Especially as it would probably allow us to get a much better deal, saving us money every year from then onward.
I am quite surprised Rory the Tory hasn’t jacked in the MP lark. He has played the game for 10 years and despite being competent he gets overlooked time and time again. I am sure lots of other governments and NGOs would be more than happy to employ his services.
Perhaps he is one of the MPs who believes in public service? Perhaps he thinks he is doing a good job for his constituents and the country? Perhaps he enjoys it?
ISTR he set up a charity - I assume he's still involved with it.
I think he does, but I am surprised he hasn’t come to the opinion that he could make more of a difference elsewhere than repeatedly overlooked by uk PM.
There is no question of No Brexit. We will leave on March 29th. PM May. Clear as could be for once.
So it's Deal or No Deal on 29th March?
Increasingly likely actually Deal or Remain.
Both preferred to No Deal in Ashcroft's poll today and if May went expect new caretaker PM Lidington to force EUref2 through Parliament on a cross party basis.
I expect if May cannot get her Deal through and has to go she will recommend Deputy PM Lidington as PM to the Queen until a new Tory leader elected, he can then push through EUref2 which Remain likely wins and she gets her revenge on the ERG
Problem with that is could a PM Lidington win a vote of confidence in Parliament? The DUP wouldn't be onside. Headbangers on the ERG side may not too if EURef2 is even suspected.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
And then when there is a deal people would go mental for all the money wasted on no deal preparations.
They really wouldn't.
It's called insurance. A concept not exactly alien to voters....
Really?? With the way modern life is with 24 hour new coverage, they would do report after report saying look at the the money wasted here, there and everywhere, when it could have been spent on the NHS, Schools etc.
It is not Tommy Robinson who brought attention to these cases. It was a load of brave people - mostly women - who spoke up about it and wrote reports on it - and it was a prosecutor (a Muslim as it happened) who started the process of putting these men on trial and locking them up. Robinson's only contribution was to try and stymie the trials so that the accused would have got off. And he could then have posed as some sort of martyr. People like him care nothing for abused girls. They are pawns in a pretty transparent game Robinson and people like him are playing. Only for those girls none of this is a game. If UKIP were really concerned about grooming gangs they would be agitating for the government to provide the girls with the help and support they need.
Second, the majority of child abusers in this country are not Pakistani men but white men. Children and girls are abused by a whole range of people not just one particular group. So let's not pretend that this is only an issue for this group.
And finally I am no friend of extreme Islam and have been pretty vocal on here - both above and below the line - about some of its malign manifestations e.g. the attacks on free speech (as evidenced by, for instance, the Charlie Hebdo attacks), the attacks on Jews, attitudes to women etc etc. And I have never been accused of being a racist.
But people like Robinson are racists and they should be called out on it.
Name another prominent politician that makes action against these gangs and extreme Islam a central part of their philosophy.
Who are all these non-racist politicians and parties that we can vote for to take action?
Sarah Champion. Sajid Javid. Both have spoken out against grooming gangs.
David Cameron gave some very good speeches about extremist Islam when he was PM. The Prevent programme has been around for a while and has been supported by all main parties. (I don't know whether Corbyn's Labour continues to support Prevent.). Saira Khan has been appointed an advisor to the current government on Islamic issues.
If you want action taken you would support the CPS who are taking action. Not people like Robinson who by their actions have tried to upset the trials and, had he been successful, would have resulted in the accused going free.
Just heard, as I expected, Tim Oliver won the election to be the new leader of Surrey County Council. If only there'd been a book on it, I'd have cleaned up...
Have to admire May going all out to sell her deal. It's almost George Foreman 'so good I put my name on it' territory.
But going over the heads of MPs to appeal to the public, while absolutely adamant that the public can have no say and have to bound by 2016 - not sure she has really thought those optics through here.
If it leads to a consensus that May did her best but Brexit is rubbish, I don’t see the downside for her. She can ultimately relent on a people’s vote, or wait for the Brexiteers to throw in the towel.
"If it leads to a consensus that May did her best but Brexit is rubbish"
It will never lead to that. At most, it will lead to the consensus that May's best was rubbish.
Brexit isn't rubbish; just it's implementation by Remainers. I think we can all reach a consensus on that....
There is no question of No Brexit. We will leave on March 29th. PM May. Clear as could be for once.
So it's Deal or No Deal on 29th March?
Increasingly likely actually Deal or Remain.
Both preferred to No Deal in Ashcroft's poll today and if May went expect new caretaker PM Lidington to force EUref2 through Parliament on a cross party basis.
I expect if May cannot get her Deal through and has to go she will recommend Deputy PM Lidington as PM to the Queen until a new Tory leader elected, he can then push through EUref2 which Remain likely wins and she gets her revenge on the ERG
Problem with that is could a PM Lidington win a vote of confidence in Parliament? The DUP wouldn't be onside. Headbangers on the ERG side may not too if EURef2 is even suspected.
The DUP are capable of being bought off in a variety of ways. Their objection is to the terms of the proposed deal. They are not necessarily as wedded to Brexit as the ERG. They have different priorities.
May appears to have intimated that if her deal is rejected by Parliament then we leave with no deal.
It took the presenter about 8 goes to get an answer from her.
If that is what she is saying, she has been grossly negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. If she wants Corbyn to be her successor, she is going the right way about it.
Agreed. Even Corbyn wouldn't be that stupid, a sentence I never thought I'd be saying.
How can you prepare for no deal in two years witthout massive expense?
Why would it cost so much to prepare for something? It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
And then when there is a deal people would go mental for all the money wasted on no deal preparations.
They really wouldn't.
It's called insurance. A concept not exactly alien to voters....
Especially as it would probably allow us to get a much better deal, saving us money every year from then onward.
Sorry to be the boring one but what no deal preparations would you have instituted in Crossmaglen?
Comments
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1065951385794084864
By focusing on retail politics - which voters like but aren’t really the job of MPs - they’ve forced everyone to match
Doesn’t leave much headspace for thinking
The former UKIP leader is calling for a vote of no confidence in Gerard Batten after his appointment of the far-right figure."
https://news.sky.com/story/tommy-robinson-becomes-adviser-to-ukip-leader-gerard-batten-11560682
She keeps saying we will leave on March 29. She is silent on Plan B if her deal falls. Therefore No Deal is default position.
Which is it?
Some redistribution of wealth or destroying our entire economic system?
He was well known to the authorities in 2014 when they jailed him for his incorrect mortgage application. Illegal yes, but something that happened hundreds of thousands of times during the mid-2000s with liar loans and Northern Rock et al. The fact that he was singled out I do believe to be a political decision yes.
2012 he was refused entry on own his passport because of political leanings (he was head of the EDL at the time), so he illegally used someone else's.
I'm not sure how this is the authorities going back in time exactly.
I'm not showing "support" for Tommy Robinson. I don't know that much about him, and I don't want to delve in too deep in case I find he's not as bad as everyone claims as then I'd be accused of racism by association. I'm just pointing out the focus of the authorities by the things they are most concerned about.
It only happens if May resigns and goes that day, before the contest, and the Cabinet agrees that the deputy should take over for a few weeks.
Tory leader on Totesport (Where I'm not banned or heavily restricted) is after a contest.
At present there are two groups against this compromise Deal, both hoping to get their preferred outcome instead. They can't both win, so they're both playing with fire.
Though, to be fair to them, the No Dealers could potentially get a change to the Deal. This is an alternative resolution to an initial rejection by Parliament (as opposed to the TARP vote-again-in-panic scenario).
It is not Tommy Robinson who brought attention to these cases. It was a load of brave people - mostly women - who spoke up about it and wrote reports on it - and it was a prosecutor (a Muslim as it happened) who started the process of putting these men on trial and locking them up. Robinson's only contribution was to try and stymie the trials so that the accused would have got off. And he could then have posed as some sort of martyr. People like him care nothing for abused girls. They are pawns in a pretty transparent game Robinson and people like him are playing. Only for those girls none of this is a game. If UKIP were really concerned about grooming gangs they would be agitating for the government to provide the girls with the help and support they need.
Second, the majority of child abusers in this country are not Pakistani men but white men. Children and girls are abused by a whole range of people not just one particular group. So let's not pretend that this is only an issue for this group.
And finally I am no friend of extreme Islam and have been pretty vocal on here - both above and below the line - about some of its malign manifestations e.g. the attacks on free speech (as evidenced by, for instance, the Charlie Hebdo attacks), the attacks on Jews, attitudes to women etc etc. And I have never been accused of being a racist.
But people like Robinson are racists and they should be called out on it.
If you've got previous, you're more likely to get a harsher sentence. If Robinson is locked up, it's because he is a serial offender, not because of his political views. If UKIP want someone who has campaigned on gang rapes, there are plenty of people who can do that job who do not have extensive criminal histories.
It's got to be better than crashing out with no preparations whatsoever.
You're not a gardener, are you? If you put fresh shit on plants, they die.
PM May. Clear as could be for once.
This one announced yesterday its commitment to UK manufacturing and that it had slapped £5billion in to model design and the UK supply base.
“Our commitment to UK production remains firm.” Ralph Speth
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/22/jlr-build-new-evoque-baby-range-rover-uk/
A Tory leader either has to unite their on-paper majority, or get support from Labour. Other sources of significant support (LDs, SNP) are probably further away than Labour here.
A Labour leader has to win over some Tories, plus the SNP.
Starting the negotiations from a presumption of No Deal would have been a reasonable alternative approach, but it would have risked a lot of corporate flight from the UK (@rcs1000 wrote an excellent comment about this a week or so ago). Clearly a judgement call was made. The bottom line is that exiting is hard and Article 50 massively favours the EU. Indeed.
Who are all these non-racist politicians and parties that we can vote for to take action?
This poll is devastating for No Deal supporters.
It shows if May's Deal voted down voters clearly prefer Remain to No Deal, May's Deal is the only sustainable Brexit
Some form of grand coalition of sensible MPs who wish to avoid a No Deal crash has to be the way forward.
But hey ho what do I know?
Both preferred to No Deal in Ashcroft's poll today and if May went expect new caretaker PM Lidington to force EUref2 through Parliament on a cross party basis.
I expect if May cannot get her Deal through and has to go she will recommend Deputy PM Lidington as PM to the Queen until a new Tory leader elected, he can then push through EUref2 which Remain likely wins and she gets her revenge on the ERG
I do fear the headbangers on the Leave side will strongly oppose a deal that Ken Clarke supports, such is their idiocy.
But going over the heads of MPs to appeal to the public, while absolutely adamant that the public can have no say and have to be bound by 2016 - not sure she has really thought those optics through here.
The Labour Party wants to win power by blocking any successful disengagement so it can blame it on the Tories. The EU is the means to an end. However voting down the deal carries big risks if their fingerprints are all over an eventual no-deal Brexit.
My money, if I risked it, would be on the deal getting past the House. But as I wouldn't trust most politicians to find their own arseole with a roadmap and a compass, I wouldn't be shocked if it failed.
But they could spend an A4 page on enumerating the tax fiddles - sorry, 'advantageous tax planning' - available to the well-off, especially those not on PAYE or whose growing wealth comes more from capital gains than from income. Then quote some of the really bad examples in speeches. Keep on doing it.
Even Warren Buffett thinks that the US tax system is grossly unfair. The UK is rarely slow in following the USA. At least he plans to give away 99%, although 99.9% would be an improvement as it would leave his heirs with $85,000,000.
I think that a Corbyn government would be terrible outcome for the country. But if the people vote for it they should get it. Ot shouldn’t be possible for the losers to rely on “an external force to curb its likely excesses”
CDU/CSU 27%
Greens 22%
AfD 16%
SPD 14%
Linke 9%
FDP 8%
Others 4%
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/the-tory-leadership-clarkes-fatal-false-move-1256827.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/23/leaked-eu-fishing-rights-statement-heaps-pressure-on-may-brexit
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6421283/Breathtaking-footage-shows-Met-polices-new-anti-robber-squad-targeting-moped-muggers.html#comments
It's called insurance. A concept not exactly alien to voters....
Maybe a no deal Brexit or Corbyn disaster will be the reset the country needs.
Iceland had a bigger reset in 2008 when they didn't bail out the banks and everyone told them they were crazy. They've recovered to be doing better than us now.
ISTR he set up a charity - I assume he's still involved with it.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8F9v8R6fgjY/WqryyeOZyNI/AAAAAAAAG60/PbKC5PjbQSsDUWccuFJB5J59cblEJTaZgCLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_6719.JPG
David Cameron gave some very good speeches about extremist Islam when he was PM. The Prevent programme has been around for a while and has been supported by all main parties. (I don't know whether Corbyn's Labour continues to support Prevent.). Saira Khan has been appointed an advisor to the current government on Islamic issues.
If you want action taken you would support the CPS who are taking action. Not people like Robinson who by their actions have tried to upset the trials and, had he been successful, would have resulted in the accused going free.
Just heard, as I expected, Tim Oliver won the election to be the new leader of Surrey County Council. If only there'd been a book on it, I'd have cleaned up...
It will never lead to that. At most, it will lead to the consensus that May's best was rubbish.
Brexit isn't rubbish; just it's implementation by Remainers. I think we can all reach a consensus on that....