The "have you read the entire deal?" argument is so vacuous and lazy it's almost like giving up. I'm still baffled by why people think you have to have read the whole thing to oppose the deal, but nothing more than a vague sense that May tried her darnedest is required to support it.
The Kennedy assassination has had me contemplating the passage of time. Find it difficult to accept that November 1963 is just as close to November 1908 as to the present day! I am firmly of the view that life changed a great deal more in that earlier 55 year period.
Yesterday was 55th anniversary of JFK assassination.Just been watching a 45 minute History Channel programme on Youtube - made in 2003 - which points the finger very firmly at LBJ.
55 years! Feels like yesterday. Everyone who was around at the time knows exactly where they were and what they were doing when they heard the news.
Indeed so. I remember the news being announced on the BBC Tonight programme at about 7.30 that Friday evening by an unknown announcer standing in for his senior colleagues who were attending a reception elsewhere.
Yes, I was watching Take Your Pick with Michael Miles on ITV.
Yesterday was 55th anniversary of JFK assassination.Just been watching a 45 minute History Channel programme on Youtube - made in 2003 - which points the finger very firmly at LBJ.
55 years! Feels like yesterday. Everyone who was around at the time knows exactly where they were and what they were doing when they heard the news.
Indeed so. I remember the news being announced on the BBC Tonight programme at about 7.30 that Friday evening by an unknown announcer standing in for his senior colleagues who were attending a reception elsewhere.
I was at a theatre somewhere in the middle stalls when I noticed the hall progressively emptying from the rear as the news filtered forward. Not a nice experience for the actors on stage!
Yesterday was 55th anniversary of JFK assassination.Just been watching a 45 minute History Channel programme on Youtube - made in 2003 - which points the finger very firmly at LBJ.
55 years! Feels like yesterday. Everyone who was around at the time knows exactly where they were and what they were doing when they heard the news.
Indeed so. I remember the news being announced on the BBC Tonight programme at about 7.30 that Friday evening by an unknown announcer standing in for his senior colleagues who were attending a reception elsewhere.
Yes, I was watching Take Your Pick with Michael Miles on ITV.
Both networks went off the air for an hour or so. The BBC was criticised for eventually returning to its schedule with the Harry Worth comedy.Later in the evening George Brown appeared in a very drunken state.
Nobody here has read the deal. Anyone who claims they have is a liar.
Even if I were minded to, I'm not an international trade lawyer, I'm not even qualified to read the pre-amble.
You don't need to read something to know it's bad, BTW. I've not read Mein Kampf, L. Ron Hubbard or the UKIP manifesto but that doesn't mean I can't state with absolute certainty that they are BAD.
What a load of tosh.
Several here have read the deal and understood it.
DUP announce that the confidence and supply agreement will cease to apply if May brings the withdrawal agreement to a vote.
They don't fuck about do they . Do you have a link to that, I mean I know its been very much implied to now but...
The DUP in my opinion are more ruthless than the Tories.
I seem to remember that certainly in the past they had non - defection agreements they had to sign before becoming MPs. The agreements specified that they would forfeit their seat if they defect and have to pay tens of thousands of pounds as well.
Pity the DUP were not the Brexit negotiators as they have a track record of getting what they want! Not that I am a fan.
Nobody here has read the deal. Anyone who claims they have is a liar.
Even if I were minded to, I'm not an international trade lawyer, I'm not even qualified to read the pre-amble.
You don't need to read something to know it's bad, BTW. I've not read Mein Kampf, L. Ron Hubbard or the UKIP manifesto but that doesn't mean I can't state with absolute certainty that they are BAD.
What a load of tosh.
Several here have read the deal and understood it.
Don't mistake your own inadequacies with others'.
I've read enough to basically work out it is "no change except we lose our MEPs". If anyone thinks there's a section that's particularly bad for us (From either the leave or remain side) then I'm all ears. There's reams on technical stuff, and actually it is (when you think of the entirity of the relationship) actually quite a barebones document. Any FTA will be MUCH MUCH weightier.
I think that tells us all we need to know about how BAD this deal isn't for N Ireland. If it was really horrendous then they would be pulling the plug before the vote was passed.
Nobody here has read the deal. Anyone who claims they have is a liar.
Even if I were minded to, I'm not an international trade lawyer, I'm not even qualified to read the pre-amble.
You don't need to read something to know it's bad, BTW. I've not read Mein Kampf, L. Ron Hubbard or the UKIP manifesto but that doesn't mean I can't state with absolute certainty that they are BAD.
What a load of tosh.
Several here have read the deal and understood it.
Don't mistake your own inadequacies with others'.
I've read enough to basically work out it is "no change except we lose our MEPs". If anyone thinks there's a section that's particularly bad for us (From either the leave or remain side) then I'm all ears. There's reams on technical stuff, and actually it is (when you think of the entirity of the relationship) actually quite a barebones document. Any FTA will be MUCH MUCH weightier.
I'm similarly impressed. I read it on the night of publication.
It isn't as bad as most people say. I was quite impressed how many concessions and clever little caveats (that would really stymie a Corbyn govt) are included.
Sounds to me that they want the deal passed without their tacit support.
Listen to what she's saying to Tory MPs: if you back May, we'll give you Corbyn.
Now, regardless of whether she's bluffing or not (and frankly bluffing isn't her style), this message is laser-targeted to put the fear of god into Tories.
The DUP's threat gives Labour a massive incentive to make sure the deal passes now.
CORBS - YOU'LL HAVE YOUR ELECTION
Incidentally, I think the make up of Parliament at the moment makes a relatively stable minority Govt more likely.
How many MPs have resigned from the Labour party? How many Labour MPs would happily have a dentist appointment to prevent a GE where a) they could possibly lose their seat or b) they could see the hard left elected. 5-10, I'd say.
Sounds to me that they want the deal passed without their tacit support.
Listen to what she's saying to Tory MPs: if you back May, we'll give you Corbyn.
Now, regardless of whether she's bluffing or not (and frankly bluffing isn't her style), this message is laser-targeted to put the fear of god into Tories.
No as if the Deal is to pass it will be without DUP support and in any case Yougov this week gave the Tories a 3% lead over Labour
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
True, but Labour won't take that risk. You can't just support the deal and trust the DUP will keep their word.
But it's certainly something for Tory MPs voting for this deal to keep in mind. You're not just voting for a bad deal that you don't want to save May's wretched skin.
No, indeed, you're also voting for a Corbyn government.
Over the channel the jaune gilet protests mean that macron will have little time to spend on any changes to the agreement. It is basically pass TM plan or another vote.
The DUP's threat gives Labour a massive incentive to make sure the deal passes now.
CORBS - YOU'LL HAVE YOUR ELECTION
Incidentally, I think the make up of Parliament at the moment makes a relatively stable minority Govt more likely.
How many MPs have resigned from the Labour party? How many Labour MPs would happily have a dentist appointment to prevent a GE where a) they could possibly lose their seat or b) they could see the hard left elected. 5-10, I'd say.
If the DUP votes against I think the confidence motion passes. Obviously the DUP won't support Corbyn, so GE.
Confidence motions are a big thing, I can't see any Labour abstentions - everyone from Hoey, through Flint right up to the Chukas will vote no confidence in the Tories. Even O'Mara
@DavidL - some Brexiteers have changed their minds, and think we should remain. They do not have the courage to admit this publicly, so they will vote against the deal claiming that it is an insufficiently hard Brexit.
The key thing from the Ashcroft poll today is that equal numbers of Tory and Labour voters prefer May's Deal to No Deal 35% and 34% of voters overall. 35% of Tory voters prefer No Deal to May's Deal and 24% of Labour voters prefer No Deal to May's Deal and 27% of voters overall.
So while most Tory voters tend to back Leave still and oppose EUref2 and most Labour voters tend to back Remain and back EUref2 both parties voters are divided on whether they back the Deal or No Deal but because more Labour voters back the Deal than Tory voters back No Deal the Deal leads No Deal overall
The key message from that, other than the fact that Lord Ashcroft's polls don't have a stellar record, is that the country is confused and hasn't settled upon any outcome.
They have settled against one outcome in particular though, May's deal. Almost everyone seems to think it's worse than the alternatives.
Wrong, they have settled against one outcome in particular, No Deal. As the polling shows both May's Deal and Remain are preferred to that
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
The DUP's threat gives Labour a massive incentive to make sure the deal passes now.
CORBS - YOU'LL HAVE YOUR ELECTION
Incidentally, I think the make up of Parliament at the moment makes a relatively stable minority Govt more likely.
How many MPs have resigned from the Labour party? How many Labour MPs would happily have a dentist appointment to prevent a GE where a) they could possibly lose their seat or b) they could see the hard left elected. 5-10, I'd say.
If the DUP votes against I think the confidence motion passes. Obviously the DUP won't support Corbyn, so GE.
Confidence motions are a big thing, I can't see any Labour abstentions - everyone from Hoey, through Flint right up to the Chukas will vote no confidence in the Tories. Even O'Mara
If Corbyn can't get a confidence motion through the house, who would the Palace ask next?
Presumably they'll get on the blowers to the Men in Gray Suits in Blue Towers and Red Towers to see if confidence can be obtained by working, uh, *around* the current leaders?
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
Indeed, how many Labour ultra remainers would vote against the deal anyway?
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
It's be a big gamble. Although any potential rebels might be more tempted if they truly think the deal is ok and also want a GE. Not many look up for rebelling though
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
True, but Labour won't take that risk. You can't just support the deal and trust the DUP will keep their word.
But it's certainly something for Tory MPs voting for this deal to keep in mind. You're not just voting for a bad deal that you don't want to save May's wretched skin.
No, indeed, you're also voting for a Corbyn government.
The Tories lead with Yougov this week even with UKIP on 6%, if they want a Corbyn government crash out No Deal Brexit and economic crash will guarantee that while Remain would boost UKIP or the far right even further
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
OK crash out Brexit it is.
That or remain. Or dozens of labour and Tory mps are willing to eat humble pie and change stance.
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
OK crash out Brexit it is.
That or remain. Or dozens of labour and Tory mps are willing to eat humble pie and change stance.
You know, one day, in the next few weeks, we'll wake up to hear on the news that Jeremy Corbyn is remain. Jeremy Corbyn has always been remain.
Anyone counter-revolutionary enough to suggest Corbyn hasn't always been an arch-enthusiast of the EU will be tried by a Momentum Troika and made an unperson.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
i) They don't think it'll pass ii) It puts pressure on Tories to block the deal iii) The pressure on Labour to pass the deal isn't as intense (If you follow the refutations to my argument that it is) iv) They don't want to bring about Corbyn, so as originally reported would probably be a bluff.
@DavidL - some Brexiteers have changed their minds, and think we should remain. They do not have the courage to admit this publicly, so they will vote against the deal claiming that it is an insufficiently hard Brexit.
I am utterly convinced.
If you want to go down that route, then Raab's your man in the leadership contest.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
OK crash out Brexit it is.
That or remain. Or dozens of labour and Tory mps are willing to eat humble pie and change stance.
You know, one day, in the next few weeks, we'll wake up to hear on the news that Jeremy Corbyn is remain. Jeremy Corbyn has always been remain.
Anyone counter-revolutionary enough to suggest Corbyn hasn't always been an arch-enthusiast of the EU will be tried by a Momentum Troika and made an unperson.
People will believe it. Others will be so ecstatic they won't care he's made noises to the contrary. He's come a long way since he became leader.
Met Police scooter crash video released as IOPC investigates
However, the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) said it is investigating three cases involving "tactical contact" by Met police cars on scooters.
According to the IOPC, one of the cases being investigated involved a 17-year-old boy who suffered head injuries a year ago in Bexley.
Can we not just have sodding membership of efta, must of this drama would disappear. The Eu cannot be relied on to hold to any agreement of understanding for future trading deal.
EFTA doesn’t respect the referendum result which voted to end free movement.
Grr.. there was no option for that. Leave or remain. EFTAis leave. Modify our welfare state so it’s less atttractive and let’s get on with it.
Apply the controls on free movement that we currently have but do not use for some reason that would make the welfare state pull a non-factor
The proportion of EU migrants who claim non-working benefits is very small. It's just a Daily Mail scare story under the old editor. Most are working; yes, they get tax credits, as do Brits in low paid jobs. Taking them away won't be popular.
Got some data on that have you?
EU migrants comprise about 6% of the working age population, but the proportion of working age benefit claimants who are EU migrants is around 2%. So a significantly lower proportion. The proportion of families containing at least one EU migrant of those receiving tax credits is around 7%. Given that some of these will be mixed UK-EU families, the tax credit ratio isn't significantly out of line with the UK average.
The situation was getting very expensive for the Govt so they introduced a toughening up of the rules mainly Habitual Residence Test. This resulted in the numbers coming down.
The ability to pass a deal is a separate failure, related to thefailure to secure a good one. But they are not the same thing and it is just not true to say they are.
Yes this is assuming the EU side agree so there is something for parliament to consider.
No
A deal that has not passed, or will not pass, is not a deal. An unsigned contract is not a deal.
They have not secured a deal, however you try and spin it.
Belatedly, there is a long list of people who have lost in court after following their belief that an unsigned contract does not bind. Signature is not one of the tests for simple contracts.
Yesterday was 55th anniversary of JFK assassination.Just been watching a 45 minute History Channel programme on Youtube - made in 2003 - which points the finger very firmly at LBJ.
Factually dubious JFK programmes make a change from factually dubious Nazi programmes which are the History Channel’s stock in trade.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
The ability to pass a deal is a separate failure, related to thefailure to secure a good one. But they are not the same thing and it is just not true to say they are.
Yes this is assuming the EU side agree so there is something for parliament to consider.
No
A deal that has not passed, or will not pass, is not a deal. An unsigned contract is not a deal.
They have not secured a deal, however you try and spin it.
Belatedly, there is a long list of people who have lost in court after following their belief that an unsigned contract does not bind. Signature is not one of the tests for simple contracts.
There are many, many different kinds of acceptance in common law, and which one(s) apply depend entirely on the nature of the invitation to treat.
In international law, a treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on unless it's (1) negotiated, (2) signed, (3) ratified, (4) enacted and (5) enforced.
Belatedly, there is a long list of people who have lost in court after following their belief that an unsigned contract does not bind. Signature is not one of the tests for simple contracts.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
May's deal had a snowball's chance in hell even before the DUP dangled the existential threat of Prime Minister Corbyn in front of the Tories.
@DavidL - some Brexiteers have changed their minds, and think we should remain. They do not have the courage to admit this publicly, so they will vote against the deal claiming that it is an insufficiently hard Brexit.
I am utterly convinced.
I think there’s a little bit of that, but not much.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
May's deal had a snowball's chance in hell even before the DUP dangled the existential threat of Prime Minister Corbyn in front of the Tories.
That’s quite a post to save for the immediate moments after May gets her deal passed
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
It's fortunate then that 200 Tory MPs is a majority of the Commons isn't it?
Yesterday was 55th anniversary of JFK assassination.Just been watching a 45 minute History Channel programme on Youtube - made in 2003 - which points the finger very firmly at LBJ.
Factually dubious JFK programmes make a change from factually dubious Nazi programmes which are the History Channel’s stock in trade.
I really, really do not believe that LBJ was behind the assassination of JFK. Like everyone else who was around at the time I remember where I was. I'd not .long got home form work and my wife had just finished putting the childen to bed, although youngest (at the time) woke up again about 10.
Back in the 90's I went round the LBJ ranch, now a museum. Everyone there had a very high opinion of him. (I suppose they would, wouldn't they!)
@DavidL - some Brexiteers have changed their minds, and think we should remain. They do not have the courage to admit this publicly, so they will vote against the deal claiming that it is an insufficiently hard Brexit.
I am utterly convinced.
I think so too, and May knows it which is why she's ruling out a referendum. She wants to inflict maximum pain on them and force them to come out and say it.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
May's deal had a snowball's chance in hell even before the DUP dangled the existential threat of Prime Minister Corbyn in front of the Tories.
Even if it does not pass the first vote it has a good chance of passing on the second once the markets crash.
However the fact the Tory vote is holding up shows regardless we should have no fear of a general election rather than giving in to the DUP and the economic devastation of a No Deal Brexit and the potential breakup of the UK with Scotland voting for independence and the clueless DUP finding Northern Ireland prefers Irish unity to a hard border in Ireland.
Indeed if Corbyn scrapes in to No 10 so what, he can then deal with the mess he has caused
The DUP's threat gives Labour a massive incentive to make sure the deal passes now.
CORBS - YOU'LL HAVE YOUR ELECTION
Incidentally, I think the make up of Parliament at the moment makes a relatively stable minority Govt more likely.
How many MPs have resigned from the Labour party? How many Labour MPs would happily have a dentist appointment to prevent a GE where a) they could possibly lose their seat or b) they could see the hard left elected. 5-10, I'd say.
If the DUP votes against I think the confidence motion passes. Obviously the DUP won't support Corbyn, so GE.
Confidence motions are a big thing, I can't see any Labour abstentions - everyone from Hoey, through Flint right up to the Chukas will vote no confidence in the Tories. Even O'Mara
If it threatened to put Corbyn in power, I’m not sure they would actually.
Some Labour MPs would be “washing their hair”.
There are also a few independents who wouldn’t necessarily play ball. Woodcock, Field and Hopkins.
The vote would need to be 323 MPs against so with all the Tories (317) voting against plus the speaker that could make all the difference, even without the Speaker.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
It's fortunate then that 200 Tory MPs is a majority of the Commons isn't it?
Err ...
It is a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party behind May
I listened to a piece on r5Live the other evening about May'[s thinking on Brexit. Remarkably enough I recognised a thought process (And priorities) on the whole EU very close to my own.
If this is the case, then I suspect in her subconcsious she actually wanted the Brexit vote to succeed even though she'd voted against it herself, as it probably lurks in mine ^_~
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
It's fortunate then that 200 Tory MPs is a majority of the Commons isn't it?
Err ...
It is a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party behind May
Harder for Labour to support it now, I would have thought.
Err why - if the deal is PASSED the DUP pull the plug on the Tories. That gives Corbyn his beloved election !
Yes, sorry I wasn't thinking.
Heh - Doubt Corbyn will realise this latest bit of gameplaying though. But others in Labour might...
Labour would have to be mad to bite on that. They'd first have to trust the DUP, then trust that May wouldn't go with a minority government or an agreement with another party, then trust that the voters wouldn't punish them for their U-turn and support of the hugely unpopular deal
OK crash out Brexit it is.
That or remain. Or dozens of labour and Tory mps are willing to eat humble pie and change stance.
You know, one day, in the next few weeks, we'll wake up to hear on the news that Jeremy Corbyn is remain. Jeremy Corbyn has always been remain.
Anyone counter-revolutionary enough to suggest Corbyn hasn't always been an arch-enthusiast of the EU will be tried by a Momentum Troika and made an unperson.
People will believe it. Others will be so ecstatic they won't care he's made noises to the contrary. He's come a long way since he became leader.
He's come a long way in presentation. He might even have mastered the tie by now.
Corbyn doesn't care about being in or out of the EU. His programme of state control usurps that. He's mildly leave, but only because it lessens the chance of anyone saying 'you can't nationalise air'. If he becomes PM he'll move fast - sufficiently so that it'll be tricky to stop. The results don't matter - its just a revolution in sheep's clothing, but now we'll get a tie too.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
It's fortunate then that 200 Tory MPs is a majority of the Commons isn't it?
Err ...
It is a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party behind May
I still expect a hardcore of 30-40 Tory MPs to vote against it on the day, plus the DUP.
The other 50 will find reasons to support it over the next few weeks.
May will need to lever c.25 Labour MPs to pass it, and a few independents.
@DavidL - some Brexiteers have changed their minds, and think we should remain. They do not have the courage to admit this publicly, so they will vote against the deal claiming that it is an insufficiently hard Brexit.
I am utterly convinced.
I think so too, and May knows it which is why she's ruling out a referendum. She wants to inflict maximum pain on them and force them to come out and say it.
I think you’re worried Brexit has now really got legs.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
Can we not just have sodding membership of efta, must of this drama would disappear. The Eu cannot be relied on to hold to any agreement of understanding for future trading deal.
EFTA doesn’t respect the referendum result which voted to end free movement.
The referendum result doesn't deserve respect. It was based on widespread ignorance and corrupt practices. Why respect it?
Contempt for democracy is such an ugly look.
I take it you are in favour of an informed referendum on the actual deal. That's democracy in action, - not the perverse imitation of 23 June 2016.
No. You need to enact a decision before you ask people again.
When we’ve left, I have no objection to a rejoin referendum in, say, 45 years time.
Where does this "principle" that "you need to enact a decision before you ask people again" come from? It seems to have been conjured up out of nowhere.
In real life, in business or personally, one often makes a joint decision (to acquire a company or buy a house) but as more information emerges, and before you enact the decision, you change your mind.
"I know we agreed to acquire this company but having looked at the books it's crap. Oh we've got to buy it first before we can change our mind."
"Look dear - I know we agreed to buy this house but the survey is awful. Oh we've got to buy it first before we can change our mind."
Poltics is not marriage or business.
You disagree with the decision. Fine. But you lost. Acceptance of that is the grown up thing to do.
You haven't answered the question Where does this "principle" that "you need to enact a decision before you ask people again" come from?
Yes.
Consider someone with constant back pain who sees a surgeon to consider their options. The surgeon says major surgery might help but it's far from certain. The patient, after considering the pros and cons of surgery, decides in favour of surgery. However, just before the scheduled operation date, evidence emerges that the surgery is much less certain to help the patient and in fact is quite likely to make things worse.
What should the surgeon do? Just crack on with the operation. Or ask the patient, in light of the new information, to reconsider and confirm their decision?
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
No, I don't think so. They don't actually want to bring down the government. They want to stop the WA, and replace May with a Brexiteer with whom they can continue their comfy little C&S love in for a few more years.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
Except well over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal and indeed with Yougov this week the Tories have a clear lead.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
May's deal had a snowball's chance in hell even before the DUP dangled the existential threat of Prime Minister Corbyn in front of the Tories.
That’s quite a post to save for the immediate moments after May gets her deal passed
Comments
1) Don't make dogmatic pronouncements on the basis of what I have to say has been spectacularly awful media reporting;
2) Don't accuse anyone who has read it of lying just becuase you don't think you could do it yourself.
I have a concert to sing in. Have a good evening.
I'm amazed I never saw it before.
The BBC would be running 24/7 footage of the street parties across the world.
Maybe she's just strange?
Several here have read the deal and understood it.
Don't mistake your own inadequacies with others'.
And that's why the deal is screwed.
I wish, wish, wish a cabinet minister would stand up and say this.
It might be the difference between a deal and no deal.
I seem to remember that certainly in the past they had non - defection agreements they had to sign before becoming MPs. The agreements specified that they would forfeit their seat if they defect and have to pay tens of thousands of pounds as well.
Pity the DUP were not the Brexit negotiators as they have a track record of getting what they want! Not that I am a fan.
There's reams on technical stuff, and actually it is (when you think of the entirity of the relationship) actually quite a barebones document. Any FTA will be MUCH MUCH weightier.
I think that tells us all we need to know about how BAD this deal isn't for N Ireland. If it was really horrendous then they would be pulling the plug before the vote was passed.
It isn't as bad as most people say. I was quite impressed how many concessions and clever little caveats (that would really stymie a Corbyn govt) are included.
Sounds to me that they want the deal passed without their tacit support.
Funny old world. The DUP are offering her a choice between her deal and her majority.
Might be advisable to slow down your posting rate and improve the quality of output...
Now, regardless of whether she's bluffing or not (and frankly bluffing isn't her style), this message is laser-targeted to put the fear of god into Tories.
'No deal is better than a bad deal'
'No early General Election'
'No Prime Minister could agree ...'
May does have a rather unfortunate relationship with the truth.
CORBS - YOU'LL HAVE YOUR ELECTION
How many MPs have resigned from the Labour party? How many Labour MPs would happily have a dentist appointment to prevent a GE where a) they could possibly lose their seat or b) they could see the hard left elected. 5-10, I'd say.
But it's certainly something for Tory MPs voting for this deal to keep in mind. You're not just voting for a bad deal that you don't want to save May's wretched skin.
No, indeed, you're also voting for a Corbyn government.
Confidence motions are a big thing, I can't see any Labour abstentions - everyone from Hoey, through Flint right up to the Chukas will vote no confidence in the Tories. Even O'Mara
I am utterly convinced.
Presumably they'll get on the blowers to the Men in Gray Suits in Blue Towers and Red Towers to see if confidence can be obtained by working, uh, *around* the current leaders?
For one thing, Labour would have zero leverage to actually make the DUP go through with their threat.
You'd be making the biggest political gamble of your career, and placing your fate in the hands of your political enemies.
Why on Earth is the DUP's threat not as originally reported, i.e. if May puts it to a vote? That would make 10x as much sense as if it is passed.
Anyone counter-revolutionary enough to suggest Corbyn hasn't always been an arch-enthusiast of the EU will be tried by a Momentum Troika and made an unperson.
ii) It puts pressure on Tories to block the deal
iii) The pressure on Labour to pass the deal isn't as intense (If you follow the refutations to my argument that it is)
iv) They don't want to bring about Corbyn, so as originally reported would probably be a bluff.
Consider the threat to take away May's majority a kind of... backstop.
However, the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) said it is investigating three cases involving "tactical contact" by Met police cars on scooters.
According to the IOPC, one of the cases being investigated involved a 17-year-old boy who suffered head injuries a year ago in Bexley.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46321720
The situation was getting very expensive for the Govt so they introduced a toughening up of the rules mainly Habitual Residence Test. This resulted in the numbers coming down.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/548225/analysis-of-eea-migrants-access-to-income-related-benefits-measures.pdf
Factually dubious JFK programmes make a change from factually dubious Nazi programmes which are the History Channel’s stock in trade.
The DUP can sod off. To be frank I would rather the pathetic Corbyn as PM without a majority finding Merkel and Barnier force him to sign either the same Deal or even more concessions than giving in to DUP blackmail
In international law, a treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on unless it's (1) negotiated, (2) signed, (3) ratified, (4) enacted and (5) enforced.
Err ...
Like everyone else who was around at the time I remember where I was. I'd not .long got home form work and my wife had just finished putting the childen to bed, although youngest (at the time) woke up again about 10.
Back in the 90's I went round the LBJ ranch, now a museum. Everyone there had a very high opinion of him. (I suppose they would, wouldn't they!)
However the fact the Tory vote is holding up shows regardless we should have no fear of a general election rather than giving in to the DUP and the economic devastation of a No Deal Brexit and the potential breakup of the UK with Scotland voting for independence and the clueless DUP finding Northern Ireland prefers Irish unity to a hard border in Ireland.
Indeed if Corbyn scrapes in to No 10 so what, he can then deal with the mess he has caused
Some Labour MPs would be “washing their hair”.
There are also a few independents who wouldn’t necessarily play ball. Woodcock, Field and Hopkins.
The vote would need to be 323 MPs against so with all the Tories (317) voting against plus the speaker that could make all the difference, even without the Speaker.
If this is the case, then I suspect in her subconcsious she actually wanted the Brexit vote to succeed even though she'd voted against it herself, as it probably lurks in mine ^_~
Corbyn doesn't care about being in or out of the EU. His programme of state control usurps that. He's mildly leave, but only because it lessens the chance of anyone saying 'you can't nationalise air'. If he becomes PM he'll move fast - sufficiently so that it'll be tricky to stop. The results don't matter - its just a revolution in sheep's clothing, but now we'll get a tie too.
The other 50 will find reasons to support it over the next few weeks.
May will need to lever c.25 Labour MPs to pass it, and a few independents.
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1066047507925557248?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1066049396373184513
If they bring the government down GE it is, no one billion for them and no influence post GE
I predict that the only people that will want the backstop to continue will be the people of Northern Ireland.
Consider someone with constant back pain who sees a surgeon to consider their options. The surgeon says major surgery might help but it's far from certain. The patient, after considering the pros and cons of surgery, decides in favour of surgery. However, just before the scheduled operation date, evidence emerges that the surgery is much less certain to help the patient and in fact is quite likely to make things worse.
What should the surgeon do? Just crack on with the operation. Or ask the patient, in light of the new information, to reconsider and confirm their decision?