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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real act

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real action

Brexit Day is now just 125 days away, or less than 18 weeks, if you prefer (and of those, you can discount Christmas). The extent of the discussion of a second referendum is therefore a measure of the desperation of both those who want to stop Brexit and those dissatisfied with how it’s going.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TomsToms Posts: 1,654
    Blind man's buff.
  • It's a very good piece. There is no time for another referendum. One will only happen if Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses then there will be other immediate priorities than another referendum.

    In fairness to the People's Vote campaign another referendum #1 Was something the disjointed and waring europhile groups could agree on. It was a lowest common denominator policy and it's worked. All the big groups have rowed in behind it and are coordinating. People's Vote us more of a brand than a product but europhilia needed a brand. #2 It was an attempt at shooting the legitimacy fox. Favouring a second referendum is an explicit admission the first referendum must stand unless superceded. #3 People's Vote is counter populism after the elitism of the Remain campaign. It suited the vacuum of the chaotic negotiation period and will suit a post deal rejection period. What it doesn't suit is a period where there is a deal as a deal isn't a vacuum. The paradox of a People's Vote is the scenario it's most suited to - a deal - something to have a People's Vote on is the scenario it's least likely to happen in emotionally. After all if you have a deal why would you go through the horror of another referendum ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749
    When Mrs May loses the vote on her deal she'll reintroduce it with an additional clause "subject to a referendum on accepting this deal or remaining". She'll win the vote on that. She will never allow "no deal" on the ballot. Nor would a majority of MPs.
  • The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,003
    so, it is "vassalage" or crash?

    no other options exist?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,004
    edited November 2018

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.

  • Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.

    The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.

    In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.

    Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/party-members-were-expected-to-turn-on-the-prime-minister-yet-many-who-dislike-her-deal-respect-her-spirit-dslnx6hb6
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    edited November 2018

    It's a very good piece. There is no time for another referendum. One will only happen if Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses then there will be other immediate priorities than another referendum.

    In fairness to the People's Vote campaign another referendum #1 Was something the disjointed and waring europhile groups could agree on. It was a lowest common denominator policy and it's worked. All the big groups have rowed in behind it and are coordinating. People's Vote us more of a brand than a product but europhilia needed a brand. #2 It was an attempt at shooting the legitimacy fox. Favouring a second referendum is an explicit admission the first referendum must stand unless superceded. #3 People's Vote is counter populism after the elitism of the Remain campaign. It suited the vacuum of the chaotic negotiation period and will suit a post deal rejection period. What it doesn't suit is a period where there is a deal as a deal isn't a vacuum. The paradox of a People's Vote is the scenario it's most suited to - a deal - something to have a People's Vote on is the scenario it's least likely to happen in emotionally. After all if you have a deal why would you go through the horror of another referendum ?

    There is time for another vote. Parliament can move fast when it has to . This is a crisis caused by no deal is better than a bad deal.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.

    The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.

    In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.

    Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/party-members-were-expected-to-turn-on-the-prime-minister-yet-many-who-dislike-her-deal-respect-her-spirit-dslnx6hb6

    Hold on, that doesn't make sense. If the Commons rejects the deal then the deal is rejected.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    so, it is "vassalage" or crash?

    no other options exist?

    Don’t do it.
  • Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Err Bush makes Labour favourites
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,941

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Some lifelong Tory voters will not vote for them next time
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 3,749

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.
  • Re the Foster interview FPT:


    Arguably Arlene Foster is right of course. Governments come and go and a Corbyn Government would come and go. As the Anglo-Irish agreement and the GFA show international treaties backed up by demographic shifts come but don't go. The Backstop will just quietly join the corpus of legal devices by which Northern Ireland is ' different ' but this time it's backed up by a nascent superpower Vs the UK not the UK Vs the much smaller RoI. Now I don't mind that at all and of course this is all the DUPs own fault for backing Leave. They've made an intergenerational strategic mistake doing that. But if I were a DUP politician looking at the Chess Board I'd be as angry as they are. A Corbyn Government is indeed less worse than that Backstop
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    edited November 2018

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    No. It needs none to switch, it needs people to stay at home. That’s very possible.

    It will have. I difficulty getting its own vote out. If the DUP are ok about Corbyn, many things are possible.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Err Bush makes Labour favourites

    He does. There is no doubt Labour should win. That does not mean it will.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Can someone talk me through the threat by the DUP to NC the government if the deal is rejected. I thought it was if the deal was accepted yesterday
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    No. It needs none to switch, it needs people to stay at home. That’s very possible.

    That depends on where they stay at home. In a post-Brexit election, what incentive will non-tribal Remainers who voted Labour in 2017 because they were appalled by May’s rhetoric have to go out to vote for Labour again?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,830
    edited November 2018
    This is a line of argument we're hearing a lot from Brexit-inclined people, especially the soft-brexit-inclined. I think that all the questions have reasonably straightforward answers except two, which cumulatively are less probable than not. The questions that matter are:

    1) Does the PM want to do this?
    2) Would her party let her?

    The things that aren't particularly hard are:

    1) Does this waste time / run out of time? No, you get an extension, and without it you probably can't get an extension, so it extends the clock.

    2) Would this have some legal or procedural problem? No, if all the member states agree then it's simple, and everyone who's spoken on this issue has suggested they'll be OK with it, and indeed would like it to happen. It's just possible that someone would play silly buggers but it's unlikely - Brexit chaos screws their voters too, albeit less than Britain's - and urgent head-of-state decisions have strong peer pressure.

    3) Does it risk No Deal? If you don't make it an option then no. If you do make it an option, then yes, if it's on the ballot paper then the voters may vote for it, but just hammering away at trying to get it through parliament also risk No Deal, if it happened then at least it would be the voters' fault not the PM's.

    4) Would the PM be humiliated if she lost? I think No Deal would be the end of her, but if her deal wins then she's strengthened, and if Brexit loses then she's still there, the economy is looking great, her enemies are marginalized, and she can concentrate on the things she really cares about instead of the Brexit stuff that she's currently lumbered with. These are both better for her than the status quo, which is that even if she somehow manages to squeeze the deal through parliament she's got another two years of negotiations with low authority and constant sniping about betrayal, if they don't dispatch her as soon as the ink is dry.
  • Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    No. It needs none to switch, it needs people to stay at home. That’s very possible.

    That depends on where they stay at home. In a post-Brexit election, what incentive will non-tribal Remainers who voted Labour in 2017 because they were appalled by May’s rhetoric have to go out to vote for Labour again?

    More dog whistle from May (or something worse) as they try desperately to get their demotivated core out coupled with another decent campaign performance from Corbyn probably.

    Remember to win elections these days you need to get your vote out and be marginally less bad than you’re opponent to split the centre marginally in your favour. Corbyn ( or more truthfully those around him) are good at that.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,003
    Jonathan said:

    so, it is "vassalage" or crash?

    no other options exist?

    Don’t do it.
    don't do what?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,731
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone talk me through the threat by the DUP to NC the government if the deal is rejected. I thought it was if the deal was accepted yesterday

    I think it's about stopping May coming back for a second attempt. The FTPA makes VoNC less nuclear and therefore more usable. The DUP can vote the May administration out but instantly say they'll upport an alternative Tory PM. And the FTPA gives the system 14 days to deliver that without an election being called. That alternative Tory PM would drop the backstop.

    Now that assumes that all the other parties in the Commons are prepared to play the DUP game. But they all have their own reasons to. Opposition parties to support a VoNC and the Tories not to fight a January GE under Theresa May.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 71,933
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone talk me through the threat by the DUP to NC the government if the deal is rejected. I thought it was if the deal was accepted yesterday

    1) The government loses the vote on the withdrawal agreement (which the DUP vote against)

    2) Corbyn puts down a VONC, the DUP vote against the government

    3) If the government loses 2) the provisions of the FTPA kick in
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone talk me through the threat by the DUP to NC the government if the deal is rejected. I thought it was if the deal was accepted yesterday

    1) The government loses the vote on the withdrawal agreement (which the DUP vote against)

    2) Corbyn puts down a VNOC, the DUP vote against the government

    3) If the government loses 2) the provisions of the FTPA kick in
    So the DUP is saying, "we won't support the Brexit deal. If you lose and there's a VoNC we'll vote against the government. We're not going to say what we'll do should you get it through (presumably there would not be a VoNC)."

    So the safest thing for May to do is to not bring the deal to Parliament as it currently stands.
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone talk me through the threat by the DUP to NC the government if the deal is rejected. I thought it was if the deal was accepted yesterday

    1) The government loses the vote on the withdrawal agreement (which the DUP vote against)

    2) Corbyn puts down a VNOC, the DUP vote against the government

    3) If the government loses 2) the provisions of the FTPA kick in
    So the DUP is saying, "we won't support the Brexit deal. If you lose and there's a VoNC we'll vote against the government. We're not going to say what we'll do should you get it through (presumably there would not be a VoNC)."

    So the safest thing for May to do is to not bring the deal to Parliament as it currently stands.
    Foster might back Corbyn.

    She points to Labour MPs whose views on Northern Ireland are opposed to those of Mr Corbyn and John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, and says that the DUP would look at the “whole picture” if it were faced with a choice between an early election or accepting a backstop that imposed a different set of regulations on Northern Ireland. “The Brexit deal is a real threat as opposed to something that may happen,” she adds.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    What date is the meaningful vote scheduled for
  • This seems to be turning into a “thing”. Another Buccaneering Brexiteer says staying in is better than May’s deal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/pro-brexit-adviser-admits-uk-would-be-better-off-staying-in-eu
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    This seems to be turning into a “thing”. Another Buccaneering Brexiteer says staying in is better than May’s deal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/pro-brexit-adviser-admits-uk-would-be-better-off-staying-in-eu

    It’s a thing because it’s true from both the economic and democratic control point of view. Switch the hated backstop with re-entry.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,148
    Barnesian said:

    When Mrs May loses the vote on her deal she'll reintroduce it with an additional clause "subject to a referendum on accepting this deal or remaining". She'll win the vote on that. She will never allow "no deal" on the ballot. Nor would a majority of MPs.

    Exactly; an interesting lead but the analysis of no deal's prospects in a referendum is redundant.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    This seems to be turning into a “thing”. Another Buccaneering Brexiteer says staying in is better than May’s deal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/pro-brexit-adviser-admits-uk-would-be-better-off-staying-in-eu

    Lol these Brexiteers are a wildly different type to those found in the wild out here
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone talk me through the threat by the DUP to NC the government if the deal is rejected. I thought it was if the deal was accepted yesterday

    1) The government loses the vote on the withdrawal agreement (which the DUP vote against)

    2) Corbyn puts down a VNOC, the DUP vote against the government

    3) If the government loses 2) the provisions of the FTPA kick in
    So the DUP is saying, "we won't support the Brexit deal. If you lose and there's a VoNC we'll vote against the government. We're not going to say what we'll do should you get it through (presumably there would not be a VoNC)."

    So the safest thing for May to do is to not bring the deal to Parliament as it currently stands.
    Yes. Assuming her ' signing ' tomorrow is now locked in the next stage of resistance will be " don't hold the meaningful vote ". She'll be threatened with a Whip count showing she'll lose and be told to go to the scheduled December EUCO to get Backstop concessions. The DUP and some of the softer ERG could refine things a bit to appear faux reasonable. " We hate this but we'll vote for it if you get X, Y and Z. Go back to them in 3 weeks and get more. " If May does that she's caved. If she doesn't then DUP/ERG can say they warned her not to hold the vote.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,128

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,003
    "For now, May still resembles Gromit on the runaway train, frantically laying the track just in front of him to avert disaster. So get ready for Brexit advent, where every day in the December calendar will offer the chance to open the door on some new, exquisitely rendered political hellscape. "

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/23/brexit-advent-political-hellscape-war-with-spain
  • Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

  • Basically British politics is now one of those Sci Fi Dramas where an ELE sized asteroid is heading to Earth and it's fallen to the hapless Theresa May to deflect it. While every other political actor is a Millenarian suicide cult staging terrorist attacks to stop her as they think the apocalypse will usher in their preferred utopia.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,148
    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
    There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    What a mess the Tories have landed the nation in!

    The EU27 would extend A50 if a #PeoplesVote was needed, so there is plenty of time.

    If the Deal is voted down and we are heading for car crash No Deal Brexit in 125 days the a #Peoplesvote only has upside.

    1) It extends A50, so gives more time for preparations for No Deal

    2) There is at least a 50/50 chance of reversing the first vote.

    3) If No Deal wins, we are no worse off than before, and the self harm is consciously chosen.

    The only reason not to have one is the obstinacy of Parliament. Sure, it would be a humiliation for May, but No Deal would destroy her anyway.

    If there is no #peoplesvote before Brexiy, then the backlash and grievance will be such that one after Brexit on Rejoining will be nailed on.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

    Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,148

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
    It would however be a "Brexit election", in which voters might expect Labour to actually have a settled position on the matter. One that is a little more thought through than the current "exact same unicorn" policy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
    There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
    Maybe or maybe not. He definitely starts stronger than last time and he is very good on he stump.
  • Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.
  • Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desireless than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

    Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.

    That’s a fair point. May’s dogwhistles are a very powerful anti-Tory motivator. Her anti-immigrant rhetoric and talk of queue jumping is appalling, as well as almost entirely destructive. That’s why I see the Tories winning most seats next time, but not a majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    I know May isn't flavour of the month amongst her backbenches at the moment, but being forced to change leader by the DUP is going to be the most horrendous look should it happen for the remainder of the parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.
    It would however be a "Brexit election", in which voters might expect Labour to actually have a settled position on the matter. One that is a little more thought through than the current "exact same unicorn" policy.
    It's a policy that seems to give them the horn though.

    I'll get my coat...
  • All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.

    Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,069
    edited November 2018
    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting article, Mr. Herdson. Reinforces my idea (must be said that Mr. Mark and Mr. HYUFD both disagree, and I'm sure many others do too) that someone wanting to nobble it for Remain should go with a Deal/Remain pair of options, as the former is the least popular of the voting choices.

    F1: think third practice is about 10am, and qualifying 1pm today. Put a little on Raikkonen each way at 21 (23 with boost) for pole yesterday. I think qualifying could be very tight and those odds just look too long.

    Edited extra bit: also, set up a hedge on the Ladbrokes Exchange at 3, on the same event.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.

    Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.

    If this deal does not go through, given the timings involved the likeliest scenario is we leave without a deal.

    I do not think any politician in the House of Commons would be forgiven for the consequences of that, for all Labour's complacency.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,148
    Jonathan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.

    .

    La.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    W

    Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
    There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
    Maybe or maybe not. He definitely starts stronger than last time and he is very good on he stump.
    On the upside, the party is less obviously at war with itself, Corbyn has become better in Parliament, and the Tories haven't excelled (although arguably their leader has, in personal terms anyhow).

    On the downside, remember that the polls now are different from those before, in that the people being polled already includes the millions who were impressed by Corbyn last time and who voted Labour in 2017. Polls prior to 2017 didn't have this knowledge, and turned out to be wrong. But there is no logic for the same big shift taking place in the next campaign, because it is already in the base polling data (as we see, with Labour close rather than miles behind). And a lot of the shine has come off Corbyn this year.

    Critically, they will have to agree a plan for Brexit, or no Brexit.

    My personal view is that 2017 was a high water mark for both major parties, and the next GE will hang on which party loses least, not to the other, but to third parties or staying at home.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,342
    Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
  • May can win the vote if she talks about the future FTA, the powers the UK will have, and what she'll use them for. There are tentative signs she is starting to recognise this.

    She will lose if she mentions the Withdrawal Agreement (of which 95% is about a maximum 45 month transition period) again after Sunday.
  • alex. said:

    Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.

    It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.

    It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.

    Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,137

    All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.

    Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.

    That's all very well , but both sides aren't telling the public the truth about Brexit.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,688

    Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    That's my motivation. Spite.
  • Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    Revenge is like trying to hurt your enemy by drinking poison yourself.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desireless than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

    Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.

    That’s a fair point. May’s dogwhistles are a very powerful anti-Tory motivator. Her anti-immigrant rhetoric and talk of queue jumping is appalling, as well as almost entirely destructive. That’s why I see the Tories winning most seats next time, but not a majority.
    Mays hunting dog whistles helped push me into the arms of Corbyn. Little did I know that was a critical part of her integrated no deal Brexit policy. How foolish I was.
  • ydoethur said:

    All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.

    Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.

    If this deal does not go through, given the timings involved the likeliest scenario is we leave without a deal.

    I do not think any politician in the House of Commons would be forgiven for the consequences of that, for all Labour's complacency.
    It’s ironic that a great criticism of the first referendum was that “voters didn’t know what they were voting for” - should now be denied the option of voting for something they would know, in detail.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    No Deal leaves one word engraved on May's political tombstone: "Backstop".

    And on Barnier's.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    What campaign could he Tories run in an emergency general election? They can’t roll out strong and stable again, surely? Could they even agree a manifesto? Could they sustain Boris and May on the stump. It could be very messy.
  • Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    Revenge is like trying to hurt your enemy by drinking poison yourself.

    See, also, a No Deal Brexit.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    No Deal leaves one word engraved on May's political tombstone: "Backstop".

    And on Barnier's.

    Surely ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is her legacy.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    That's my motivation. Spite.
    I think May has that effect. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal. I didn't feel able to vote Labour in '17 but after the, and I don't use this word lightly, evil queue jumper comments I'd ram my Labour vote into the ballot box. And I'd like to think I understand the horrors of a Corbyn Government. But you just have to draw a line and take the head shot. Now I may calm down and May might go but... Hunt with EUSSR, Javid ( ! ) openly using Islamophobic tropes. The Tories have turned themselves into a machine to utterly unhinge social liberals. If we must have the ' Gammondammerung ' then we should do it properly. And that means the redemptive suffering of a Corbyn Government.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,986
    edited November 2018

    Basically British politics is now one of those Sci Fi Dramas where an ELE sized asteroid is heading to Earth and it's fallen to the hapless Theresa May to deflect it. While every other political actor is a Millenarian suicide cult staging terrorist attacks to stop her as they think the apocalypse will usher in their preferred utopia.

    I always find a novel harder to read when I don't find the main character sympathetic. As a device to humanise the protagonist the author really should have done better than a youthful indiscretion like running through wheatfields.

    Maybe there's a twist and a previously minor character will suddenly emerge as the real hero of the tale? Not sure I want to read to the end otherwise.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desireless than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

    Corbyn is not talking towhistling their core it will happen again.

    That’s a but not a majority.
    Mays hunting dog whistles helped push me into the arms of Corbyn. Little did I know that was a critical part of her integrated no deal Brexit policy. How foolish I was.

    Attacks on EU immigrant queue jumpers and the like will certainly help to keep the fragile Labour coalition together. May’s sour, xenophobic nativism, combined with the sheer lunacy of the Bucanneers, are very good reasons to prevent the Tories winning, I do concede. And if it were not for the Corbyn factor Labour would get my vote without hesitation. But who do you choose when the fight is between two racists?

  • Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    Revenge is like trying to hurt your enemy by drinking poison yourself.
    " No man is healed by wounding another. " - St Ambrose of Milan.

    But overwhelmingly voters aren't Saints.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    Jonathan said:

    No Deal leaves one word engraved on May's political tombstone: "Backstop".

    And on Barnier's.

    Surely ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is her legacy.
    She is about to discover that No Deal is a consequence of her Bad Deal......

    Turn up to the signing. Strike through the Backstop provisions. Initial the change. Sign the deal. Get back on the plane with "Over to you, guys. It's all I can get approved...."

    She'd be a legend.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    edited November 2018
    The people who want a second referendum don't want to Brexit at all, or don't like the choice of a bad deal and a bad no deal and are looking for a way to either reverse the previous decision or to get a pause. There's only one way of reverting or pausing right now and that is to cancel the Article 50 notification while we decide what we do next, whether it's a new referendum or simply a breathing space to work stuff out before starting again on Article 50.

    Will that happen? I don't think so. Theresa May is still the government and will clearly plough on regardless. The EU won't invest anything in protecting us from our bad decisions, even if they regret them.

    Brexit will however be very messy and, I am increasingly thinking, unworkable.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    That's my motivation. Spite.
    I think May has that effect. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal. I didn't feel able to vote Labour in '17 but after the, and I don't use this word lightly, evil queue jumper comments I'd ram my Labour vote into the ballot box. And I'd like to think I understand the horrors of a Corbyn Government. But you just have to draw a line and take the head shot. Now I may calm down and May might go but... Hunt with EUSSR, Javid ( ! ) openly using Islamophobic tropes. The Tories have turned themselves into a machine to utterly unhinge social liberals. If we must have the ' Gammondammerung ' then we should do it properly. And that means the redemptive suffering of a Corbyn Government.

    Yep, that queue jumping speech was the most overtly racist I have ever heard from a British PM. Calling people who have settled here perfectly legally and in complete good faith snide cheats was utterly abhorent. Not only did it display an instinctive loathing of foreigners, but it also insulted millions of Brits who she assumed would agree with her.

  • Mr. Observer, Corbyn's an order of magnitude worse. When has May marched beneath banners of genocidal dictators? She has her many, many faults, but I'm not aware of her laying wreaths for anyone unworthy, or appointing as her economic chief someone who describes himself as a Marxist and wants to take down capitalism.

    Mr. Observer (2), what's the verbal equivalent of a tin ear? A lead tongue? A granite larynx?

    May's record of unforced errors and stupid little mistakes (cf the reduction of FOBT stakes, magically transforming a good government policy into terrible headlines) is remarkable.

    I'd still take the mediocrity over the Marxist every day of the week, though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desireless than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

    Corbyn is not talking towhistling their core it will happen again.

    That’s a but not a majority.
    Mays hunting dog whistles helped push me into the arms of Corbyn. Little did I know that was a critical part of her integrated no deal Brexit policy. How foolish I was.

    Attacks on EU immigrant queue jumpers and the like will certainly help to keep the fragile Labour coalition together. May’s sour, xenophobic nativism, combined with the sheer lunacy of the Bucanneers, are very good reasons to prevent the Tories winning, I do concede. And if it were not for the Corbyn factor Labour would get my vote without hesitation. But who do you choose when the fight is between two racists?

    Do you want people like Cooper or Mogg on the govt benches?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    edited November 2018

    Jonathan said:

    No Deal leaves one word engraved on May's political tombstone: "Backstop".

    And on Barnier's.

    Surely ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is her legacy.
    She is about to discover that No Deal is a consequence of her Bad Deal......

    Turn up to the signing. Strike through the Backstop provisions. Initial the change. Sign the deal. Get back on the plane with "Over to you, guys. It's all I can get approved...."

    She'd be a legend.
    No Deal will be followed by a Worse Deal. The current proposal is as good as Brexit gets. With the exception of Ireland, the controversial stuff is left to later. No Deal is the absence of agreement, it's not a viable end state.

    People accuse the government of failing to do No Deal planning, but it did issue planning notices under Dominic Raab. Either the EU would OF COURSE do a deal with the UK on things like aviation and ignore the stuff the UK doesn't like. Or there's absolutely nothing the UK government can do about it but if exporters etc want to do their own No Deal planning, please go ahead. This No Deal planning presumably involves a loaded revolver and a bottle of whisky.

    The point is, we may go through No Deal, but we're not going to stay there. Any ultimate deal will almost certainly be worse than the current proposal with extra chaos on top.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 713
    It would be a monumental failure of our elected politicians if they prove themselves incapable of achieving a negotiated withdrawal from the EU. The 2016 referendum result was an instruction to them to do that. If they don't (whether it's a chaotic no deal or a backsliding no brexit) they are dishonouring it.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.

    That's my motivation. Spite.
    I think May has that effect. I live in a Con held Con/Lab marginal. I didn't feel able to vote Labour in '17 but after the, and I don't use this word lightly, evil queue jumper comments I'd ram my Labour vote into the ballot box. And I'd like to think I understand the horrors of a Corbyn Government. But you just have to draw a line and take the head shot. Now I may calm down and May might go but... Hunt with EUSSR, Javid ( ! ) openly using Islamophobic tropes. The Tories have turned themselves into a machine to utterly unhinge social liberals. If we must have the ' Gammondammerung ' then we should do it properly. And that means the redemptive suffering of a Corbyn Government.

    Yep, that queue jumping speech was the most overtly racist I have ever heard from a British PM. Calling people who have settled here perfectly legally and in complete good faith snide cheats was utterly abhorent. Not only did it display an instinctive loathing of foreigners, but it also insulted millions of Brits who she assumed would agree with her.

    I think that’s ludicrously hyperbolic.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 2,128

    Barnesian said:

    Jonathan said:

    The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.


    To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.

    Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.

    Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.

    Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.

    Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.

    Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.

    Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?

    The anti Tory anti Labour and anti May anti Corbyn percentages were similar. If those remain, but the Brexit percentages which were much higher for the Tories see both sets of voters drop out then it is the Tories which lose far more votes.

    People who voted remain and people who voted for leave did vote for the parties they voted for more than just that though, even some of those that gave it as their primary reason.


  • Mr. Pulpstar, it's just dumb. People following the rules shouldn't be bollocked for doing so.

    Reminds me a bit of shrieking at people who are take part in tax avoidance. Or 'following the tax law' as it's also [rarely] known.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    Hammond said on R4 that the deal was designed to unite the country. I think we can say they are close to achieving their objective.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.

    She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.

    No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.

    EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,588
    edited November 2018
    And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.

    If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    edited November 2018
    Is May stronger or weaker than she was on polling day 2017? I

    Corbyn is probably in my estimations is about back where he was. The Liberals are against the odds weaker. That might help May.
  • Mr. Jonathan, disagree. If nobody likes the deal, the nation is united.

    Mr. Meeks, holding people who aren't negotiating to account for the way the negotiation has been mishandled is an odd view.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342

    Mr. Jonathan, disagree. If nobody likes the deal, the nation is united.

    Mr. Meeks, holding people who aren't negotiating to account for the way the negotiation has been mishandled is an odd view.

    Er, that was my point.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.

    She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.

    No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.

    EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
    She could and should have expressed it better. If you're attempting to build broad support for the deal then this sort of language is unnecessary.
  • Mr. Jonathan, sorry, misread your post (think I saw a phantom 'not').
  • Mr. Jonathan, disagree. If nobody likes the deal, the nation is united.

    Mr. Meeks, holding people who aren't negotiating to account for the way the negotiation has been mishandled is an odd view.

    The negotiation has been handled in accordance with the mandate given. You get to be insular and hostile to foreigners. You didn’t prioritise trade deals and so those have ended on the scrapheap. If that bothers Leavers, they should have campaigned differently.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.

    It's not even that. It's about our freedom to go where we want without government interference: no you can't, fill in these forms, pay us this money.
  • Mr. Meeks, well, if you want to lambast more than half the nation as racist, that's up to you. It doesn't make a debate very informative, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.

    It's not even that. It's about our freedom to go where we want without government interference: no you can't, fill in these forms, pay us this money.
    No, that's just a consequence of Brexit.
  • Mr. Meeks, well, if you want to lambast more than half the nation as racist, that's up to you. It doesn't make a debate very informative, though.

    I lambast those that campaigned and fell in enthusiastically behind that campaign, but now complain that the campaign message has been prioritised.

    One can imagine a very different Brexit that allowed for trade deals and no immigration controls. But that was not campaigned for.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,562
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:


    Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.

    There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
    Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.

    If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.

    I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,241

    Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.

    The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.

    In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.

    Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/party-members-were-expected-to-turn-on-the-prime-minister-yet-many-who-dislike-her-deal-respect-her-spirit-dslnx6hb6

    She clearly is either as thick as an Irish bog or favours a united Irelans as that is what Corbyn will give her.
  • Good header. One minor correction, however. Deal trails Remain by 27 points with Survation, NOT 37 points.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Pulpstar said:

    And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.

    If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.

    I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.
    Or at least they're (Free traders) are springing out the woodwork to rubbish the deal now it's basically the anti immigration brexit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,342
    edited November 2018

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:


    Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.

    There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.
    Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?
    They are for non-ideological, pragmatic good government, that puts wealth creating business first.

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
This discussion has been closed.