And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
What specifically do you think he could have offered that would have averted a Leave vote?
Only an end to FoM would have worked imho.
Maybe some kind of brake might have sneaked it.
And the wit of HMG to alter the benefits system to not act as a draw for low paid migrants who cost far more in welfare payments than they ever pay in.
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
With respect, I disagree. They've successfully killed off leave movements in other member countries, and it's quite likely that one way or other the UK will be back before long. The EU is way stronger than it was a year or so ago.
Yeh right, with Italy and Greece both about to explode economically, & a worldwide downturn hitting just as the ECB withdraws QE.
Whether you're right or not about Italy, Greece etc. these are factors outside the negotiation on British withdrawal. The point is they have comprehensively won the negotiation because they were clear about what they wanted.
If deal does go through - Conservatives only and immediate concern will be staying in power which requires DUP support.
That surely implies May would have to go and that winner of contest will be someone who is DUP friendly - ie Johnson or somebody who says what Johnson said yesterday.
If the Deal goes through Parliament will have voted for it as law so the DUP will support a VONC in the government before they have a chance to elect a new leader, hence a general election is likely if May gets her Deal through. If she does not either No Deal or EUref2 are more likely, though a general election is still possible if May keeps trying for the Deal in which case the DUP will also support a VONC
You do post with such certainty but there are several other possibilities
No there aren't, the EU have made clear they are not going to reopen negotiations so the above are the only alternatives
You do at times lay yourself wide open. You have no idea how the EU will act if this falls.
We know exactly as the EU have set the best terms they are willing to offer and as they have made abundantly clear they have their own domestic issues to deal with and are not going to offer any more favourable terms to a country that has voted to leave the EU
I do not accept that until it is actually challenged post the deal failing
If there is to be any further concessions it will be from the UK on permanent single market and/or customs union or indeed a reversal of Brexit after EUref2, the EU is not budging
You should use 'in my opinion' more to give credence to your views
On a procedural point, if somehow parliament were to vote for the deal in the Meaningful Vote, then Corbyn brought a motion of no confidence that the government lost due to a massive DUP huff, has parliament now done enough to make the deal happen, or is there a load of other stuff it has to do to head off No Deal that it won't be doing for a while because there's no longer a government?
Yes. The meaningful vote isn't legislation. The whole WA needs ratifying via separate Act of Parliament.
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
What specifically do you think he could have offered that would have averted a Leave vote?
Accommodation on free movement
The Leave campaign ran on Turkey joining the EU and bringing lots of immigrants, which Britain already had a veto on. Would it have helped if the EU had offered Britain *two* vetoes?
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
What specifically do you think he could have offered that would have averted a Leave vote?
Accommodation on free movement
It's not in his power (or Merkel's) to offer that.
Junckers more than anyone lost the UK - a deal could have been fudged as has this
Juncker wasn't even at the Commission at the time UK cabinet ministers started saying they wanted to leave the EU and presenting it as an easy choice. You can't blame him for it.
There has been a lot of nonsense spoken by leavers about the EU interfering with the integrity of the UK over Northern Ireland. The EU's legitimate concern for the arrangements around the border of one of its member states has been portrayed as some kind of attempt to subvert our country. But right at the last minute, Spain has used the situation to do exactly that.
These pieces on betrayed Fisherfolk have been common recently but here is today's Observer version. To it's credit it gives extensive space to direct quotes so the interviewees can tell their own stories. Though equally their is a clear " what did they expect ? " editorial stance.
I'm not remotely a member of the fishing community, but I grew up in a fishing port. My dad worked on a boat for a couple of years. And I do know a couple of fishermen, both retired, personally. So I have more connection than most to what is a pretty tiny sector of the UK economy any way you look at it. The moaning about the EU has been going on since before we joined and I had always assumed that there was a genuine disadvantage to membership from their point of view. To be completely frank, not having a romantic idea of fishermen made it fairly easy for me to conclude that although I don't bear them any ill will sometimes the good of the many outweighs the interests of a particular group. So I was prepared to sell them out.
But it crossed my mind that I didn't actually understand the issues. So I spent six hours researching the matter last week.
First off I was amazed at how little I knew. Almost none of the assumptions I had made stood up. Big things - like what species of fish was most landed in the town I was born in and that my father used to bring home from work I was wrong on.
To my surprise I concluded that English fishermen are likely to be worse off outside the EU - though the trade seems so tightly interlinked with the continent that I have a feeling the status quo will prevail somehow. I think there is a chance that Scottish ones might do better outside, but to be honest I was getting into stuff I didn't understand very well towards the end.
Obviously I am not an expert and the exercise has mainly made me realise how much I don't know so I feel less well informed than when I started. I am beginning to think that nobody knows enough about Brexit to have an informed opinion. Maybe we should have an option on the upcoming referendum to simply toss a coin and all agree to make the best of whatever chance deals out?
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
With respect, I disagree. They've successfully killed off leave movements in other member countries, and it's quite likely that one way or other the UK will be back before long. The EU is way stronger than it was a year or so ago.
You think that signing a deal for the UK to leave the EU will be good for their legacy, really
I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.
And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
I had a lot of respect for Theresa May until she went back on her word re-calling an early General Election. Never to be trusted again - 'Once a liar always a liar.'
Very true , it is hard to take her word on anything. If she can renege on such a large promise as not holding a snap election. I am surprised anyone believes her ,that she will eventually sanction another referendum. Especially if it lengthens her time as PM. As that seems to me, her main priority, not the national interest, that she repeats ad nauseam.
Problem is that TM stands way in front in public opinion as best PM.
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
What specifically do you think he could have offered that would have averted a Leave vote?
Accommodation on free movement
It's not in his power (or Merkel's) to offer that.
Junckers more than anyone lost the UK - a deal could have been fudged as has this
Juncker wasn't even at the Commission at the time UK cabinet ministers started saying they wanted to leave the EU and presenting it as an easy choice. You can't blame him for it.
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
With respect, I disagree. They've successfully killed off leave movements in other member countries, and it's quite likely that one way or other the UK will be back before long. The EU is way stronger than it was a year or so ago.
You think that signing a deal for the UK to leave the EU will be good for their legacy, really
It was the UK that voted to leave the EU, not the other way round. History will focus on that, and ask whether it was a good decision or not. It will be much less interested in what happened during Cameron's supposed renegotiation of terms.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
How do you know that? The WA says we are leaving the CFP. Everything else is conjecture.
Any fool can read what it says, we will have to mutually agree a new CFP to get the FTA, are you stupid enough to think that means EU will give up fishing to give UK a trade deal, get real. It is kicked down the road so idiots can try to say it does not explicitly point it out in their charade of an agreement.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
Foster on Marr confirms she will review confidence and supply deal with the Tories if her Deal goes through but she does not think she can get it through.
Does not confirm either she will support May's Tories on confidence and supply even if her Deal is voted down but would have to look at the circumstances. Suggests could be a general election in January if the DUP vote down May's government
For an election to take place on January 31st Parliament will have to be dissolved before the Xmas recess. Is that likely?
It could happen. And Parliament can amend the FTPA.
That would take time. Difficult to see the Lords simply waiving that through.
I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.
And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
I had a lot of respect for Theresa May until she went back on her word re-calling an early General Election. Never to be trusted again - 'Once a liar always a liar.'
Very true , it is hard to take her word on anything. If she can renege on such a large promise as not holding a snap election. I am surprised anyone believes her ,that she will eventually sanction another referendum. Especially if it lengthens her time as PM. As that seems to me, her main priority, not the national interest, that she repeats ad nauseam.
Problem is that TM stands way in front in public opinion as best PM.
A sitting PM always has a modicum of support in the country. Due to respect for the position.
However that is been pushed to the limit. I am sure the Conservative Party, as always has a replacement. Especially in times of a national crisis.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
There's an increasing trend in politics to attack the other side for *wanting* to do exactly the same thing as you are doing while pretending you're doing something else.
You do post with such certainty but there are several other possibilities
No there aren't, the EU have made clear they are not going to reopen negotiations so the above are the only alternatives
You do at times lay yourself wide open. You have no idea how the EU will act if this falls.
We know exactly as the EU have set the best terms they are willing to offer and as they have made abundantly clear they have their own domestic issues to deal with and are not going to offer any more favourable terms to a country that has voted to leave the EU
I do not accept that until it is actually challenged post the deal failing
They might be prepared to make cosmetic changes - but certainly no more than that, and not enough to satiate either the ERG or come close to Labour's fantasy Brexit. Firstly, because those flout the EU's key red lines of Britain not being in the good stuff but without any cost or responsibilities. The second reason is exemplified by Cyprus' effectively vetoing a deeper defence agreement because they are worried it sets a precedent for Turkey - you have 27 nations with their own interests and this is about as far as they can go as a collective without bashing into some potential issue for one or more nations either with the UK or for future EU bilateral deals.
The one exception probably being if we were to accept an off the shelf BINO option like EFTA/EEA - which would entirely defeat the purpose of those who want to reopen negotiations as most who would accept that as an outcome only do so as a second choice to remaining - and with good reason - it's effectively just resigning the significant power we did have within the EU to remain as a silent partner.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
Tories (the party that got us into the CFP) are bears of very short memory. They just hope everyone else is too.
On a procedural point, if somehow parliament were to vote for the deal in the Meaningful Vote, then Corbyn brought a motion of no confidence that the government lost due to a massive DUP huff, has parliament now done enough to make the deal happen, or is there a load of other stuff it has to do to head off No Deal that it won't be doing for a while because there's no longer a government?
Yes. The meaningful vote isn't legislation. The whole WA needs ratifying via separate Act of Parliament.
No it doesn't. Treaty signing is still part of the Royal Prerogative and does not need Parliamentary approval. May include a meaningful vote in the A50 legislation but that is as far as Parliamentary involvement goes. If she passes that hurdle she need no longer reference Parliament to sign the Deal.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
Tories (the party that got us into the CFP) are bears of very short memory. They just hope everyone else is too.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
Saying they would like to change it whilst knowing that is impossible is dishonest.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
There's an increasing trend in politics to attack the other side for *wanting* to do exactly the same thing as you are doing while pretending you're doing something else.
"but when we propose to balance public spending over the parliament and have no intentions to borrow, we arent going to do that by makingthe kinds of cuts the Tories have"
Quite possibly yes. Our MPs are overindulged people who are not capable of making sensible decisions and are too well paid to be affected when they go wrong.
I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.
And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
I had a lot of respect for Theresa May until she went back on her word re-calling an early General Election. Never to be trusted again - 'Once a liar always a liar.'
Very true , it is hard to take her word on anything. If she can renege on such a large promise as not holding a snap election. I am surprised anyone believes her ,that she will eventually sanction another referendum. Especially if it lengthens her time as PM. As that seems to me, her main priority, not the national interest, that she repeats ad nauseam.
Problem is that TM stands way in front in public opinion as best PM.
A sitting PM always has a modicum of support in the country. Due to respect for the position.
However that is been pushed to the limit. I am sure the Conservative Party, as always has a replacement. Especially in times of a national crisis.
In the event of a leader election I would expect 6 - 8 candidates
However, it is impossible to predict how TM will react when the deal falls but I do not expect her to resign. She could but it would be out of character. She has come this far, walking away as did David Cameron is not her style. Of course she could see a vnoc but unless she loses it she stays for another year.
The irony in all this is that if the labour party had anything like a sensible leader they would be in a much better position to benefit from the chaos
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
What specifically do you think he could have offered that would have averted a Leave vote?
Only an end to FoM would have worked imho.
Maybe some kind of brake might have sneaked it.
Maybe applying the restrictions that we currently don't?
This was a position that the remainers really didnt push that well during the referendum. You meander over to France, try and get a job, and see how much welfare entitlement you get. Then go and demand access to public housing and support, you would not so much get a gallic shrug, but a gallic laugh.
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
They lost their second largest net contributor, the nation that most pushed them into moving away from sclerotic state aided socialism, which as done them no end of good. Our stroppiness could easily have been accounted for. But they laughed at us, and its good bye from us, even if makes both us and them a little poorer.
I would rather be a touch poorer and burn the wealth than give it to the EU.
I keep saying this, but it bears repeating. I don't mind you being a touch poorer (that's your decision) but I do mind me being a lot poorer. The damage of your stance is not limited to yourself.
On a procedural point, if somehow parliament were to vote for the deal in the Meaningful Vote, then Corbyn brought a motion of no confidence that the government lost due to a massive DUP huff, has parliament now done enough to make the deal happen, or is there a load of other stuff it has to do to head off No Deal that it won't be doing for a while because there's no longer a government?
Yes. The meaningful vote isn't legislation. The whole WA needs ratifying via separate Act of Parliament.
No it doesn't. Treaty signing is still part of the Royal Prerogative and does not need Parliamentary approval. May include a meaningful vote in the A50 legislation but that is as far as Parliamentary involvement goes. If she passes that hurdle she need no longer reference Parliament to sign the Deal.
She could sign the deal, but she needs an implementing act for it to be useful - the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
They lost their second largest net contributor, the nation that most pushed them into moving away from sclerotic state aided socialism, which as done them no end of good. Our stroppiness could easily have been accounted for. But they laughed at us, and its good bye from us, even if makes both us and them a little poorer.
I would rather be a touch poorer and burn the wealth than give it to the EU.
I keep saying this, but it bears repeating. I don't mind you being a touch poorer (that's your decision) but I do mind me being a lot poorer. The damage of your stance is not limited to yourself.
I dont want it to be either, but if it need be it need be. Quite happy to have an EFTA to EEA style relationship and live quite harmoniously with our European neighbours. It would not make us a penny poorer.
They've got us where they want us. But all Macron and the Spanish PM are doing by raising these issues is making a deal even harder to agree on. If thats what they want....
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
Tories (the party that got us into the CFP) are bears of very short memory. They just hope everyone else is too.
Plus there is no route out of the CFP without leaving the EU which is no doubt, why the SNP are not currently proposing it.
Just for clarity on their current status as the Fishermen's Friends (tastes unpleasant, difficult to swallow), is there a precis available anywhere of Tory policy positions, bills, manifesto commitments etc on the CFP over the last 48 years?
This is also illustrative of one aspect of how the UK got in such a political mess over Europe. So much of it is grandstanding for national elections, misleading the voters over the substantive events (which are normally much more mundane).
This is because elections at the national level are more important than those at the European level.
Blair took part in a lot of this sort of political theatre and so contributed to maintaining an us against them dynamic in British-EU politics
They've got us where they want us. But all Macron and the Spanish PM are doing by raising these issues is making a deal even harder to agree on. If thats what they want....
It did strike me as spectacularly tone deaf - is Macron trying to sink this, or like the Spanish PM is he just trying to distract from difficulty at home?
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
They lost their second largest net contributor, the nation that most pushed them into moving away from sclerotic state aided socialism, which as done them no end of good. Our stroppiness could easily have been accounted for. But they laughed at us, and its good bye from us, even if makes both us and them a little poorer.
I would rather be a touch poorer and burn the wealth than give it to the EU.
I keep saying this, but it bears repeating. I don't mind you being a touch poorer (that's your decision) but I do mind me being a lot poorer. The damage of your stance is not limited to yourself.
PLUS ONE! I didn't spend the first 10 years of my life in a siege economy to do the same in the last decade. (Although I plan on living a touch more than 10 more.)
Juncker, Tusk, Merkel, Macron and others were in Office the day the EU signed a WDA with the UK
Not the legacy they would have wanted
And if Junckers had given a little to David Cameron this could have been avoided
They lost their second largest net contributor, the nation that most pushed them into moving away from sclerotic state aided socialism, which as done them no end of good. Our stroppiness could easily have been accounted for. But they laughed at us, and its good bye from us, even if makes both us and them a little poorer.
I would rather be a touch poorer and burn the wealth than give it to the EU.
I keep saying this, but it bears repeating. I don't mind you being a touch poorer (that's your decision) but I do mind me being a lot poorer. The damage of your stance is not limited to yourself.
I dont want it to be either, but if it need be it need be. Quite happy to have an EFTA to EEA style relationship and live quite harmoniously with our European neighbours. It would not make us a penny poorer.
It's the "need be" that worries me. People are generating multiple fantasy alternate deals or various flavours of remain and preferring them to the concrete reality deal in front of us. Others also insist that this can be left until the last minute. This is not the behavior of people who get things done, it is the behavior of people who fail to get things done. And given the gravity of the situation, I'm somewhat angry, as I'm sure has become apparent.
On a procedural point, if somehow parliament were to vote for the deal in the Meaningful Vote, then Corbyn brought a motion of no confidence that the government lost due to a massive DUP huff, has parliament now done enough to make the deal happen, or is there a load of other stuff it has to do to head off No Deal that it won't be doing for a while because there's no longer a government?
Yes. The meaningful vote isn't legislation. The whole WA needs ratifying via separate Act of Parliament.
No it doesn't. Treaty signing is still part of the Royal Prerogative and does not need Parliamentary approval. May include a meaningful vote in the A50 legislation but that is as far as Parliamentary involvement goes. If she passes that hurdle she need no longer reference Parliament to sign the Deal.
She could sign the deal, but she needs an implementing act for it to be useful - the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill
But in that instance Parliament can only hold up the treaty. And if its does so then we leave with No Deal on 29th March. It cannot either modify nor instruct Government to amend any treaty. So it would have a simple choice between accept or No Deal.
You do post with such certainty but there are several other possibilities
No there aren't, the EU have made clear they are not going to reopen negotiations so the above are the only alternatives
You do at times lay yourself wide open. You have no idea how the EU will act if this falls.
We know exactly as the EU have set the best terms they are willing to offer and as they have made abundantly clear they have their own domestic issues to deal with and are not going to offer any more favourable terms to a country that has voted to leave the EU
I do not accept that until it is actually challenged post the deal failing
They might be prepared to make cosmetic changes - but certainly no more than that, and not enough to satiate either the ERG or come close to Labour's fantasy Brexit. Firstly, because those flout the EU's key red lines of Britain not being in the good stuff but without any cost or responsibilities. The second reason is exemplified by Cyprus' effectively vetoing a deeper defence agreement because they are worried it sets a precedent for Turkey - you have 27 nations with their own interests and this is about as far as they can go as a collective without bashing into some potential issue for one or more nations either with the UK or for future EU bilateral deals.
The one exception probably being if we were to accept an off the shelf BINO option like EFTA/EEA - which would entirely defeat the purpose of those who want to reopen negotiations as most who would accept that as an outcome only do so as a second choice to remaining - and with good reason - it's effectively just resigning the significant power we did have within the EU to remain as a silent partner.
I didnt actually say that though I do not disagree with it
I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.
And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
I had a lot of respect for Theresa May until she went back on her word re-calling an early General Election. Never to be trusted again - 'Once a liar always a liar.'
Very true , it is hard to take her word on anything. If she can renege on such a large promise as not holding a snap election. I am surprised anyone believes her ,that she will eventually sanction another referendum. Especially if it lengthens her time as PM. As that seems to me, her main priority, not the national interest, that she repeats ad nauseam.
Problem is that TM stands way in front in public opinion as best PM.
A sitting PM always has a modicum of support in the country. Due to respect for the position.
However that is been pushed to the limit. I am sure the Conservative Party, as always has a replacement. Especially in times of a national crisis.
In the event of a leader election I would expect 6 - 8 candidates
However, it is impossible to predict how TM will react when the deal falls but I do not expect her to resign. She could but it would be out of character. She has come this far, walking away as did David Cameron is not her style. Of course she could see a vnoc but unless she loses it she stays for another year.
The irony in all this is that if the labour party had anything like a sensible leader they would be in a much better position to benefit from the chaos
Agreed , but if it came to a government of national unity. Sajid Javid and Keir Starmer would be my two to take this country forward.
I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.
And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
I had a lot of respect for Theresa May until she went back on her word re-calling an early General Election. Never to be trusted again - 'Once a liar always a liar.'
Very true , it is hard to take her word on anything. If she can renege on such a large promise as not holding a snap election. I am surprised anyone believes her ,that she will eventually sanction another referendum. Especially if it lengthens her time as PM. As that seems to me, her main priority, not the national interest, that she repeats ad nauseam.
Problem is that TM stands way in front in public opinion as best PM.
A sitting PM always has a modicum of support in the country. Due to respect for the position.
However that is been pushed to the limit. I am sure the Conservative Party, as always has a replacement. Especially in times of a national crisis.
In the event of a leader election I would expect 6 - 8 candidates
However, it is impossible to predict how TM will react when the deal falls but I do not expect her to resign. She could but it would be out of character. She has come this far, walking away as did David Cameron is not her style. Of course she could see a vnoc but unless she loses it she stays for another year.
The irony in all this is that if the labour party had anything like a sensible leader they would be in a much better position to benefit from the chaos
Agreed , but if it came to a government of national unity. Sajid Javid and Keir Starmer would be my two to take this country forward.
I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.
And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
I had a lot of respect for Theresa May until she went back on her word re-calling an early General Election. Never to be trusted again - 'Once a liar always a liar.'
Very true , it is hard to take her word on anything. If she can renege on such a large promise as not holding a snap election. I am surprised anyone believes her ,that she will eventually sanction another referendum. Especially if it lengthens her time as PM. As that seems to me, her main priority, not the national interest, that she repeats ad nauseam.
Problem is that TM stands way in front in public opinion as best PM.
A sitting PM always has a modicum of support in the country. Due to respect for the position.
However that is been pushed to the limit. I am sure the Conservative Party, as always has a replacement. Especially in times of a national crisis.
In the event of a leader election I would expect 6 - 8 candidates
However, it is impossible to predict how TM will react when the deal falls but I do not expect her to resign. She could but it would be out of character. She has come this far, walking away as did David Cameron is not her style. Of course she could see a vnoc but unless she loses it she stays for another year.
The irony in all this is that if the labour party had anything like a sensible leader they would be in a much better position to benefit from the chaos
Agreed , but if it came to a government of national unity. Sajid Javid and Keir Starmer would be my two to take this country forward.
I agree
Not possible. No unity. The membership do not compromise...
On a procedural point, if somehow parliament were to vote for the deal in the Meaningful Vote, then Corbyn brought a motion of no confidence that the government lost due to a massive DUP huff, has parliament now done enough to make the deal happen, or is there a load of other stuff it has to do to head off No Deal that it won't be doing for a while because there's no longer a government?
Yes. The meaningful vote isn't legislation. The whole WA needs ratifying via separate Act of Parliament.
No it doesn't. Treaty signing is still part of the Royal Prerogative and does not need Parliamentary approval. May include a meaningful vote in the A50 legislation but that is as far as Parliamentary involvement goes. If she passes that hurdle she need no longer reference Parliament to sign the Deal.
She could sign the deal, but she needs an implementing act for it to be useful - the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill
But in that instance Parliament can only hold up the treaty. And if its does so then we leave with No Deal on 29th March. It cannot either modify nor instruct Government to amend any treaty. So it would have a simple choice between accept or No Deal.
I think you are right on treaty making being a prerogative power. You are also right on the Commons limited options to delay/oppose treaties ( the 2010 Constitutional Reform Act ). But I also think White Rabbit and I are right there will be a Bill to bring the WA fully into UK law as well.
It appears that the only long term deal the 27 will agree to will be worse than the Backstop. And the Backstop is a pile of shite. I agree with Raab that Remain would be better than the mess May is trying to get us into.
No Deal is better than a May Deal.
If we can't renegotiate, then the choice really is No Deal or No Brexit.
They've got us where they want us. But all Macron and the Spanish PM are doing by raising these issues is making a deal even harder to agree on. If thats what they want....
It did strike me as spectacularly tone deaf - is Macron trying to sink this, or like the Spanish PM is he just trying to distract from difficulty at home?
Macron surely gives the lie to the idea there can be no more negotiation.
It appears that the only long term deal the 27 will agree to will be worse than the Backstop. And the Backstop is a pile of shite. I agree with Raab that Remain would be better than the mess May is trying to get us into.
No Deal is better than a May Deal.
If we can't renegotiate, then the choice really is No Deal or No Brexit.
My choice is No Brexit, but we can renegotiate. There are infinite options to choose from. If we start again with different red lines we can come up with something better.
They've got us where they want us. But all Macron and the Spanish PM are doing by raising these issues is making a deal even harder to agree on. If thats what they want....
It did strike me as spectacularly tone deaf - is Macron trying to sink this, or like the Spanish PM is he just trying to distract from difficulty at home?
Macron does have a habit of going off message. They were supposed to wait until we left before presenting us with the bill. (And don't believe the UK side isn't colluding in this)
It appears that the only long term deal the 27 will agree to will be worse than the Backstop. And the Backstop is a pile of shite. I agree with Raab that Remain would be better than the mess May is trying to get us into.
No Deal is better than a May Deal.
If we can't renegotiate, then the choice really is No Deal or No Brexit.
The fact is, every deal is worse than the status quo and so called No Deal is the worst of the lot. Multilateral always gives you more than bilateral, except maybe if you are the US or China.
So has anyone from leave articulated what TMay's "lies" ( as YS puts it) are in their view?
We had some interesting comments from Grabcoque the other day about fishing. But there seemed to be very little detail behind the heat of his anger.
Detail is that they have sold out on CFP despite promises and the feeble 13 Scottish MP's promising to resign over it, be lucky if any one of them have the principles to go.
Unlike the SNP who want to remain part of the CFP......
Away you half wit, change your propaganda sheet , at least the SNP are honest and open and state they would like to change the CFP. They do not go behind people's backs and give it away and then deny it.
Saying they would like to change it whilst knowing that is impossible is dishonest.
Rubbish Richard, from inside they would try to change it, it would be difficult but not impossible , that is honest. Different from Tories blatantly lying that they have not sold Scottish fishermen down the Swanee.
Foster on Marr confirms she will review confidence and supply deal with the Tories if her Deal goes through but she does not think she can get it through.
Does not confirm either she will support May's Tories on confidence and supply even if her Deal is voted down but would have to look at the circumstances. Suggests could be a general election in January if the DUP vote down May's government
For an election to take place on January 31st Parliament will have to be dissolved before the Xmas recess. Is that likely?
Quite possibly if the DUP back a VONC in the government before Christmas
As Arlene has made this statement it is very clear that the DUP expecting a VONC in which they vote no confidence is precisely what she is expecting. All of the assumption is that Corbyn would raise the confidence motion. Be funny if the DUP did it...
If I were Corbyn I'd be quite happy to let the DUP put the actual motion down.
Comments
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1066417875974582272 I'm not remotely a member of the fishing community, but I grew up in a fishing port. My dad worked on a boat for a couple of years. And I do know a couple of fishermen, both retired, personally. So I have more connection than most to what is a pretty tiny sector of the UK economy any way you look at it. The moaning about the EU has been going on since before we joined and I had always assumed that there was a genuine disadvantage to membership from their point of view. To be completely frank, not having a romantic idea of fishermen made it fairly easy for me to conclude that although I don't bear them any ill will sometimes the good of the many outweighs the interests of a particular group. So I was prepared to sell them out.
But it crossed my mind that I didn't actually understand the issues. So I spent six hours researching the matter last week.
First off I was amazed at how little I knew. Almost none of the assumptions I had made stood up. Big things - like what species of fish was most landed in the town I was born in and that my father used to bring home from work I was wrong on.
To my surprise I concluded that English fishermen are likely to be worse off outside the EU - though the trade seems so tightly interlinked with the continent that I have a feeling the status quo will prevail somehow. I think there is a chance that Scottish ones might do better outside, but to be honest I was getting into stuff I didn't understand very well towards the end.
Obviously I am not an expert and the exercise has mainly made me realise how much I don't know so I feel less well informed than when I started. I am beginning to think that nobody knows enough about Brexit to have an informed opinion. Maybe we should have an option on the upcoming referendum to simply toss a coin and all agree to make the best of whatever chance deals out?
It is kicked down the road so idiots can try to say it does not explicitly point it out in their charade of an agreement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39453535
Come on guys, get a grip.
Due to respect for the position.
However that is been pushed to the limit.
I am sure the Conservative Party, as always has a replacement.
Especially in times of a national crisis.
https://twitter.com/jim45cotland/status/1066189662920867840
Plus there is no route out of the CFP without leaving the EU which is no doubt, why the SNP are not currently proposing it.
However, it is impossible to predict how TM will react when the deal falls but I do not expect her to resign. She could but it would be out of character. She has come this far, walking away as did David Cameron is not her style. Of course she could see a vnoc but unless she loses it she stays for another year.
The irony in all this is that if the labour party had anything like a sensible leader they would be in a much better position to benefit from the chaos
This is because elections at the national level are more important than those at the European level.
Blair took part in a lot of this sort of political theatre and so contributed to maintaining an us against them dynamic in British-EU politics
I didn't spend the first 10 years of my life in a siege economy to do the same in the last decade.
(Although I plan on living a touch more than 10 more.)
Sajid Javid and Keir Starmer would be my two to take this country forward.
No Deal is better than a May Deal.
If we can't renegotiate, then the choice really is No Deal or No Brexit.