Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

I’m taking profits on my TMay surviving 2018 bet because I think there’s just an outside chance that she could quit if the Commons votes against her plan. That would happen before Christmas.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,429
    edited November 2018
    Premiere, like French fishing rights in British waters.
  • Second! Like Remain & Corbyn....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    FPT

    notme said:

    They've got us where they want us. But all Macron and the Spanish PM are doing by raising these issues is making a deal even harder to agree on. If thats what they want....
    It did strike me as spectacularly tone deaf - is Macron trying to sink this, or like the Spanish PM is he just trying to distract from difficulty at home?
    Macron surely gives the lie to the idea there can be no more negotiation.
    There will be years of negotiation on the future relationship, but the withdrawal agreement is done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 55,950
    If Labour abstain it will only be on a second or third vote on the Deal after the markets crash, they will vote against the Deal on the first vote
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666
    FF43 said:

    It appears that the only long term deal the 27 will agree to will be worse than the Backstop. And the Backstop is a pile of shite. I agree with Raab that Remain would be better than the mess May is trying to get us into.

    No Deal is better than a May Deal.

    If we can't renegotiate, then the choice really is No Deal or No Brexit.

    The fact is, every deal is worse than the status quo and so called No Deal is the worst of the lot. Multilateral always gives you more than bilateral, except maybe if you are the US or China.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,874


    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    The timing of the meaningful vote is perfectly lined up so that May can go to the December Council meeting and get a commitment that they will accept a revocation of Article 50 ready for a second referendum.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    You would assume at least one of May or Corbyn will have to resign on that date. Possibly Cable as well if anyone else rebels.

    I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
  • Judging from Theresa May's other statements and announcements, the meaningful vote will start half an hour late.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    You would assume at least one of May or Corbyn will have to resign on that date. Possibly Cable as well if anyone else rebels.

    I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    A sensible deal would be to say 'Sorry about all the time-wasting, but could you just confim that we don't have to accept everyone from the EU who rocks up on our shores without a job' and in response we wont elect the likes of Nigel Farage any more.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    edited November 2018
    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    On the first day of Christmas
    Westminster said to me
    "You've fucked up the Brexit Treaty....."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    You would assume at least one of May or Corbyn will have to resign on that date. Possibly Cable as well if anyone else rebels.

    I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    A sensible deal would be to say 'Sorry about all the time-wasting, but could you just confim that we don't have to accept everyone from the EU who rocks up on our shores without a job' and in response we wont elect the likes of Nigel Farage any more.
    Instantly we have a problem as that will undoubtedly continue - just as I don't need a visa to visit Israel. What I assume you mean is, 'do we have to pay benefits to such people while they look for work,' which is a rather different matter.
  • I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018
    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    "A strong single market deal" is Jeremy Corbyn's way - influenced by Theresa May ("strong") and Donald Trump and Noel Edmonds ("deal") - of saying "stay in the single market". "A" is wordplay with the indefinite article. How with it this guy is.

    It's also Labour policy for Britain to stay in the customs union.

    Every country that belongs to both of these arrangements is a member state. There aren't even any microstate exceptions (Liechtenstein is in the SM, not the CU; Andorra is in the CU, not the SM).

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,986
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    You would assume at least one of May or Corbyn will have to resign on that date. Possibly Cable as well if anyone else rebels.

    I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    A sensible deal would be to say 'Sorry about all the time-wasting, but could you just confim that we don't have to accept everyone from the EU who rocks up on our shores without a job' and in response we wont elect the likes of Nigel Farage any more.
    Instantly we have a problem as that will undoubtedly continue - just as I don't need a visa to visit Israel. What I assume you mean is, 'do we have to pay benefits to such people while they look for work,' which is a rather different matter.
    That'll do.

    Always rely on a teacher to put one straight. Been married to one for 56 years!
  • I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
  • I suppose the thought is to emphasize the realities of a harsh and uncompromising world, in contrast to the wands-and-fairies stuff of the Leavers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    "This is all I was ever trying to get...."

    Task Vegans with making meat pies, THIS is what you get.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,690
    Really surprised how much money seems to be going on us not leaving whilst May gets over yet another hurdle.

    The Commons is the trickiest one but even if the deal fails how do we avoid a no deal departure?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,173
    edited November 2018

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    There's no "this next time next year". There's no Article 50 extension. There's Hard Brexit, with a PM and a Chancellor that refused to plan for it.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,245
    edited November 2018
    This week's favourite oxymoron 'Theresa May quits'...

    The only way I see her going (and it won't be before Christmas) is if her deal loses in Parliament twice and she starts talking about a second referendum or 'putting the deal to the people' (which I think is her current plan B ). Under those circumstances I think the Tories will no-confidence her and look to elect a new leader in the new year.
  • I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    There's no "this next time next year". There's no Article 50 extension. There's Hard Brexit, with a PM and a Chancellor that refused to plan for it.
    This time next year we'll still be in the EU
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 997
    Is that all there is?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    I think May resigns after the deal is voted down............... twice.

    She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    I think May resigns after the deal is voted down............... twice.

    She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.

    So basically whatever happens Mrs May is ***** ? :D
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,245
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May resigns after the deal is voted down............... twice.

    She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.

    So basically whatever happens Mrs May is ***** ? :D
    To paraphrase Keynes; in the long run we are all *****!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May resigns after the deal is voted down............... twice.

    She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.

    So basically whatever happens Mrs May is ***** ? :D
    Yes but I think she makes it through to the end of the year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 18,584
    DavidL said:

    Really surprised how much money seems to be going on us not leaving whilst May gets over yet another hurdle.

    The Commons is the trickiest one but even if the deal fails how do we avoid a no deal departure?

    I think we should allow for a certain amount of wishful thinking among punters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    Theresa May is for christmas, just not for easter.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,872

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    You would assume at least one of May or Corbyn will have to resign on that date. Possibly Cable as well if anyone else rebels.

    I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    A sensible deal would be to say 'Sorry about all the time-wasting, but could you just confim that we don't have to accept everyone from the EU who rocks up on our shores without a job' and in response we wont elect the likes of Nigel Farage any more.
    A very sensible suggestion, Mr Cole. If only we had sensible leaders....
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,245
    Pulpstar said:

    Theresa May is for christmas, just not for easter.

    But it's bad luck to still have her on display after Twelfth Night.
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Really surprised how much money seems to be going on us not leaving whilst May gets over yet another hurdle.

    The Commons is the trickiest one but even if the deal fails how do we avoid a no deal departure?

    I think we should allow for a certain amount of wishful thinking among punters.
    There must be a pithy phrase that could be coined about wishing that other punters are guilty of wishful thinking while fearing that is the case for your own judgement.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,784
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Really surprised how much money seems to be going on us not leaving whilst May gets over yet another hurdle.

    The Commons is the trickiest one but even if the deal fails how do we avoid a no deal departure?

    I think we should allow for a certain amount of wishful thinking among punters.
    Political punters (except for those on PB) do not bet to maximise their income. They do so to settle an argument, or to demonstrate machismo, or as a sign of loyalty to their identified party. That, combined with the fact that wealthy people can make bigger bets than poorer people, skews the betting odds away from being a good predictor. Those of us who can remember the night of the EU referendum when the odds varied wildly ( @Dromedary made over six figures) can attest to this, and of course we all remember 2015 when those who listened to Matt Singh (https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/7/ ) would also have made money.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666
    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,312
    I'm sure this has already been dissected to the entrails but I've just heard Mrs May's statement and I agree with Boris that she's a duplicitous lying toad. The stand out was the implication that we were paying £394,000,000 a week to the EU but that was the tip of the iceberg. The sooner these sleazy Tories are shown the door the sooner we might begin the long road to regaining our self respect.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: writing up the post-race ramble. Not a classic but the race had its moments.

    May write some differing stuff to cover the post-season period. Got a few ideas. Depends on time, interest, the propitiation of Apollo etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,581

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    There's no "this next time next year". There's no Article 50 extension. There's Hard Brexit, with a PM and a Chancellor that refused to plan for it.
    Because they promised business that it wouldn't happen.

    The Tory Party has quite some reckoning coming its way, in your scenario.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,595
    Roger said:

    I'm sure this has already been dissected to the entrails but I've just heard Mrs May's statement and I agree with Boris that she's a duplicitous lying toad. The stand out was the implication that we were paying £394,000,000 a week to the EU but that was the tip of the iceberg. The sooner these sleazy Tories are shown the door the sooner we might begin the long road to regaining our self respect.

    With Corbyn.. don't make me laugh.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    There's no "this next time next year". There's no Article 50 extension. There's Hard Brexit, with a PM and a Chancellor that refused to plan for it.
    This time next year we'll still be in the EU
    We will either have May's deal, a slightly amended deal, or a Corbynite Hard Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    Yes, that's the argument and why MPs should vote in favour.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Notch said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    "A strong single market deal" is Jeremy Corbyn's way - influenced by Theresa May ("strong") and Donald Trump and Noel Edmonds ("deal") - of saying "stay in the single market". "A" is wordplay with the indefinite article. How with it this guy is.

    It's also Labour policy for Britain to stay in the customs union.

    Every country that belongs to both of these arrangements is a member state. There aren't even any microstate exceptions (Liechtenstein is in the SM, not the CU; Andorra is in the CU, not the SM).

    Jeremy Corbyn is lying outright and the Remain media refuse to call him on it. We go from not being able to rule on 100% of our economy to not being able to rule on 20% of it. Plus more say on criminal justice and immigration.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
    We're accepting the indivisibility of the four freedoms in writing. Once all domestic interests are taken into account as we get into trade negotiations, do you really think we'll end up introducing trade barriers?

    The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
    account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    The timing of the meaningful vote is perfectly lined up so that May can go to the December Council meeting and get a commitment that they will accept a revocation of Article 50 ready for a second referendum.

    That would destroy the Conservative Party and any sense the UK public is listened to. The political elite would be deliberately sabotaging Brexit so the British public can keep being asked until the elite get the answer they want. "We will deliberately crash the economy until you accept open doors immigration" is the message Westminster would be saying to the working class.

    Faith in democracy skyrocketed after the referendum. It would collapse if the public weren't allowed the answer the elite disagrees with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Things might look bleak now but is Labour really going to risk being tarred with having made a no deal exit to actually happen?

    Yes. They don't believe no deal will really happen, so risking it seems like, well, no risk.

    There’s a huge difference between the party abstaining and actually voting alongside the DUP and hardline Tory rebels to strike it down. My guess is that Corbyn’s party will abstain

    How could they do that? What justification for standing by on this issue? Pushing a GE may be unrealistic in terms of how it would help get a new deal, but it enables them to tread a fine line to their supporters about brexiting and not brexiting, being all things to all people. Abstain and it is as good as endorsing a deal.

    I don't quite follow how the chance of a referendum is still seen as low when thinking we won't leave is practically level with leave now (rightly, in my view). I don't see how we delay leaving for a new deal or don't leave at all without a referendum.
    Pulpstar said:

    I think May resigns after the deal is voted down............... twice.

    She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.

    My only difference is I think she might go if it is voted down even once. But she is done if it does get through. Which is fine, Brexit is more important than her remaining as PM.
    Theo said:

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    There's no "this next time next year". There's no Article 50 extension. There's Hard Brexit, with a PM and a Chancellor that refused to plan for it.
    This time next year we'll still be in the EU
    We will either have May's deal, a slightly amended deal, or a Corbynite Hard Brexit.
    We shall see. Labour, whatever Corbyn wants, are moving to remain all the time - Starmer is positioning them that way.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
    We're accepting the indivisibility of the four freedoms in writing. Once all domestic interests are taken into account as we get into trade negotiations, do you really think we'll end up introducing trade barriers?

    The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
    account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
    It doesn't matter. The EU have already agreed to keep open borders on goods. They can't now shut it off under the next deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Theo said:

    The timing of the meaningful vote is perfectly lined up so that May can go to the December Council meeting and get a commitment that they will accept a revocation of Article 50 ready for a second referendum.

    That would destroy the Conservative Party and any sense the UK public is listened to. The political elite would be deliberately sabotaging Brexit so the British public can keep being asked until the elite get the answer they want. "We will deliberately crash the economy until you accept open doors immigration" is the message Westminster would be saying to the working class.

    Faith in democracy skyrocketed after the referendum. It would collapse if the public weren't allowed the answer the elite disagrees with.
    That might well be so but it looks very likely right now. Too many of those who want Brexit don't back a deal, so will find a way to crash it, and in that situation a way to remain can be found. Brexiteers will get what they want - remaining instead of this deal. I hope they are happy with that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
    We're accepting the indivisibility of the four freedoms in writing. Once all domestic interests are taken into account as we get into trade negotiations, do you really think we'll end up introducing trade barriers?

    The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
    account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
    It doesn't matter. The EU have already agreed to keep open borders on goods. They can't now shut it off under the next deal.
    They haven't. The backstop does not deliver UK-wide frictionless trade.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    I don't expect to be inspired by hard fought negotiations and compromises.

    But it makes selling it in any referendum on the deal very hard, particularly when Corbyn and the ERG crowd will sell much better fantasies. And there are fantasies there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    kle4 said:

    I don't expect to be inspired by hard fought negotiations and compromises.

    But it makes selling it in any referendum on the deal very hard, particularly when Corbyn and the ERG crowd will sell much better fantasies. And there are fantasies there.
    That's why any referendum has to be a reality-based choice between this deal and Remain.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Let’s not forget - without Gina Miller there would be no opportunity for Parliament to reject May’s steaming pile of ordure.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
    We're accepting the indivisibility of the four freedoms in writing. Once all domestic interests are taken into account as we get into trade negotiations, do you really think we'll end up introducing trade barriers?

    The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
    account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
    It doesn't matter. The EU have already agreed to keep open borders on goods. They can't now shut it off under the next deal.
    They haven't. The backstop does not deliver UK-wide frictionless trade.
    It delivers an open customs border. That is what matters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think May resigns after the deal is voted down............... twice.

    She's out the door immediately if the deal gets through as the DUP will NC her.

    So basically whatever happens Mrs May is ***** ? :D
    Her fate was sealed quite some time ago. I don't think her actions in the past 8 months make any sense unless she knew and accepted her time as PM was coming to an end, despite what she might say, and that she had to do whatever it took to get a Brexit deal, any deal, because she thinks one is necessary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    kle4 said:

    I don't expect to be inspired by hard fought negotiations and compromises.

    But it makes selling it in any referendum on the deal very hard, particularly when Corbyn and the ERG crowd will sell much better fantasies. And there are fantasies there.
    That's why any referendum has to be a reality-based choice between this deal and Remain.
    Well you cannot very well include a 'negotiate another deal' option since that is hardly clear, which is why that is for the ridiculous GE option, but I don't see how it is fair not to include no deal. It may be a bad choice, but it is an entirely realistic choice if that is what people want.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
    We're accepting the indivisibility of the four freedoms in writing. Once all domestic interests are taken into account as we get into trade negotiations, do you really think we'll end up introducing trade barriers?

    The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
    account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
    It doesn't matter. The EU have already agreed to keep open borders on goods. They can't now shut it off under the next deal.
    They haven't. The backstop does not deliver UK-wide frictionless trade.
    It delivers an open customs border. That is what matters.
    That's what matters if you want to avoid being accused of dividing up the UK's customs territory, but it takes more than that to facilitate existing trade patterns.
  • I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    You forgot the national government option.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    The deal is crap, more crap than before, but not as crap as it could be. Vote for it.
    No. Just a Remain media deliberately distorting her words. This deal keeps economic access to the EU for manufacturing while getting rid of the huge membership cost and controlling immigration.
    We're accepting the indivisibility of the four freedoms in writing. Once all domestic interests are taken into account as we get into trade negotiations, do you really think we'll end up introducing trade barriers?

    The future relationship will be based on a balance of rights and obligations, taking into
    account the principles of each Party. This balance must ensure the autonomy of the Union’s decision making and be consistent with the Union’s principles, in particular with respect to the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
    It doesn't matter. The EU have already agreed to keep open borders on goods. They can't now shut it off under the next deal.
    They haven't. The backstop does not deliver UK-wide frictionless trade.
    It delivers an open customs border. That is what matters.
    That's what matters if you want to avoid being accused of dividing up the UK's customs territory, but it takes more than that to facilitate existing trade patterns.
    Yes, that's what I said. An open customs border is what matters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    edited November 2018
    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    No wiggle room there at all, no acknowledgement of the EU view on the withdrawal agreement. There is no chance Labour will abstain on first or second vote given that reasoning - it applies no matter what the markets do and is unequivocal it is bad, not merely not ideal.

    We have to hope the EU don't mean it when they say no more negotiation on the WA, because that will be attempted, whether it is Raab or Corbyn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384
    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    It's part of Labour's handling of this whole issue - other people will play up that Remain is on the table, and they will believe Corbyn will back it when it happens even though he doesn't mention it, which keeps hold of anyone who is still for Leave.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,384

    Let’s not forget - without Gina Miller there would be no opportunity for Parliament to reject May’s steaming pile of ordure.

    Yet another of the guilty (wo)men that'll history won't look kindly upon when we crash out. There's a reason this sort of power normally rests with the government.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    You forgot the national government option.
    Corbyn joining the Tories in government?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    Pulpstar said:

    Let’s not forget - without Gina Miller there would be no opportunity for Parliament to reject May’s steaming pile of ordure.

    Yet another of the guilty (wo)men that'll history won't look kindly upon when we crash out. There's a reason this sort of power normally rests with the government.
    I don't think Bromptonaut is right. The Miller case only involved triggering Article 50. The meaningful vote could have been tacked on to the withdrawal bill anyway.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,832
    Pulpstar said:

    Let’s not forget - without Gina Miller there would be no opportunity for Parliament to reject May’s steaming pile of ordure.

    Yet another of the guilty (wo)men that'll history won't look kindly upon when we crash out. There's a reason this sort of power normally rests with the government.
    The actions of a lot of Remainers from Tony Blair down have probably made "No Deal" much more likely that it would otherwise have been...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    DavidL said:

    Really surprised how much money seems to be going on us not leaving whilst May gets over yet another hurdle.

    The Commons is the trickiest one but even if the deal fails how do we avoid a no deal departure?

    Yes, it's tricky, but it doesn't seem entirely unreasonable to expect something to come through - the deal is still going to fail, and fail very big at that, and options do exist to have referendum or GE etc. It's very unclear which would occur, and outright irresponsibility in pretending the options are simple, but with 400 MPs or so saying something will come up, of course punters thing the same.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,240
    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
    Yes, he's a politician and Leader of the Opposition - that suggests he isn't going to do May and the Government any favours (and why would he?).

    Perhaps she should thrown him a bone or two for his support - say, repeal of all anti-Union legislation and massive spending increases in welfare.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,313
    kle4 said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    No wiggle room there at all, no acknowledgement of the EU view on the withdrawal agreement. There is no chance Labour will abstain on first or second vote given that reasoning - it applies no matter what the markets do and is unequivocal it is bad, not merely not ideal.

    We have to hope the EU don't mean it when they say no more negotiation on the WA, because that will be attempted, whether it is Raab or Corbyn.
    The markets have already priced in the fact this will not pass the HoC. Where we go from there who knows - a no deal Brexit or complete abandonment of this ludicrous project.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    You forgot the national government option.
    Corbyn joining the Tories in government?
    Who the feck knows. Anything is possible in the forthcoming mess. This is easily the gravest constitutional crisis since the People's Budget of 1909.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    You forgot the national government option.
    What option is that? Tories are moving in one direction, Labour in another, there's nothing to suggest they would come together to try to work in the national interest on this. If they were capable or willing to do that the whole process would not have been so partisan in the first place. Not even being told by the EU that there is no new WA will rock the confidence that one will happen and be super easy.
  • Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
    Hodges thinks that McD will by-pass him after the vote is lost and a call for a GE is lost.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666
    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    Sounds like Corbyn would be open to an arrangement with Theresa May providing she made some commitment to a high integration end state.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    murali_s said:

    kle4 said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    No wiggle room there at all, no acknowledgement of the EU view on the withdrawal agreement. There is no chance Labour will abstain on first or second vote given that reasoning - it applies no matter what the markets do and is unequivocal it is bad, not merely not ideal.

    We have to hope the EU don't mean it when they say no more negotiation on the WA, because that will be attempted, whether it is Raab or Corbyn.
    The markets have already priced in the fact this will not pass the HoC. Where we go from there who knows - a no deal Brexit or complete abandonment of this ludicrous project.
    I think those are the only two options. New dealers are more dishonest than both remainers and no deal supporters.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 568
    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
    All Corbyn supporters are dupes. He's a fraud of the highest order - one who's spent so long selling the scam he half believes it himself. Happily, more people are beginning to see through it. History really will be very unkind on him and those who supported him.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760
    stodge said:

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
    Yes, he's a politician and Leader of the Opposition - that suggests he isn't going to do May and the Government any favours (and why would he?).

    Perhaps she should thrown him a bone or two for his support - say, repeal of all anti-Union legislation and massive spending increases in welfare.

    You a fan of flying pickets then stodge?

    Friend of mine got a kicking once for trying to work - nice bunch eh?

  • kjhkjh Posts: 679
    kle4 said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    No wiggle room there at all, no acknowledgement of the EU view on the withdrawal agreement. There is no chance Labour will abstain on first or second vote given that reasoning - it applies no matter what the markets do and is unequivocal it is bad, not merely not ideal.

    We have to hope the EU don't mean it when they say no more negotiation on the WA, because that will be attempted, whether it is Raab or Corbyn.
    I think there is wriggle room there although probably isn't what he (Corbyn) is thinking because those criteria match with membership of the EU.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760
    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
    As people keep repeating, to enable him to enact his brand of socialism they need to leave.

    Simples.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    FF43 said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    Sounds like Corbyn would be open to an arrangement with Theresa May providing she made some commitment to a high integration end state.
    I think "a permanent customs union with a UK say" gives the lie to that. He doesn't want his tests to be passable under any circumstances.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,240
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    So the May apologists like you are going to lead us all over the cliff in March because we won't accept the Prime Minister's blessed "Deal"?

    To be fair, I've read the letter May has written to me and if the letter matched the content of the Deal no one could possibly be in opposition as it reads like the fulfilment of every LEAVE voter's fantasies short of Barnier and Juncker coming down every garden path in the UK and personally delivering each elector £1000 in twenty pound notes.

    Yet the vast majority of MPs and many others are opposed so what do they see that May doesn't or rather what don't they see that May does? Does the Prime Minister REALLY believe this is the best deal we could have got or is it simply the British deal she could get?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,313
    edited November 2018
    Back on topic, lay "UK to leave the EU by 29/03/2019" - crossover incoming.

    As ever, DYOR.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    You forgot the national government option.
    With Labour led by Trots? forget it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    stodge said:

    Theo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    And yet Remainers are still blindly believing Corbyn will eventually come to support Remain. They are dupes of the highest order. He is a life long ideologue and eurosceptic who can get Leave merely by doing nothing.
    Yes, he's a politician and Leader of the Opposition - that suggests he isn't going to do May and the Government any favours (and why would he?).

    It isn't doing the government a favour. Some things are actually more important than party. If a new deal is not possible then he should be clearly for the deal, no deal or remain. And given the EU will not make things easy even if a new deal is possible, he (and Tory rebels including Cabinet Members) are being irresponsibly reckless by suggesting it could be done quickly and simply. And given a GE has zero guarantee of returning a parliament which would be any more unified it is very clearly just a partisan distraction - it would be nice to at least pretend that is not the reason.

    Deal, no deal and remain look to be much more realistic options, hopefully after the deal fails in parliament by a massive amount people will start to be more honest about which of those things they are prepared to accept.
  • Surely the game is up when some of the die-hard PB Tories are already finger pointing at Corbyn for the unfolding fiasco that lies ahead.

    Corbyn is responsible for a lot of things, particularly the brick-by-brick demolition of his own party's electability. Brexit however is a train wreck painted blue!
  • Floater said:

    I still expect the vote to fail, but it will be interesting to see how many Tories blink when faced with the dark reality of the World According to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    However many Tories blink, it won't be enough to get it through....
    Yes, the Deal is doomed. The only question now is who will be presenting its identical replacement to parliament this time next year - Boris or DD.
    You forgot the national government option.
    With Labour led by Trots? forget it.
    Might only take a 100 or so Ramseys.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    kle4 said:

    Deal, no deal and remain look to be much more realistic options, hopefully after the deal fails in parliament by a massive amount people will start to be more honest about which of those things they are prepared to accept.

    Polls of those three options over the next week will be fascinating.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,313

    Surely the game is up when some of the die-hard PB Tories are already finger pointing at Corbyn for the unfolding fiasco that lies ahead.

    Corbyn is responsible for a lot of things, particularly the brick-by-brick demolition of his own party's electability. Brexit however is a train wreck painted blue!

    +1
  • stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    So the May apologists like you are going to lead us all over the cliff in March because we won't accept the Prime Minister's blessed "Deal"?

    To be fair, I've read the letter May has written to me and if the letter matched the content of the Deal no one could possibly be in opposition as it reads like the fulfilment of every LEAVE voter's fantasies short of Barnier and Juncker coming down every garden path in the UK and personally delivering each elector £1000 in twenty pound notes.

    Yet the vast majority of MPs and many others are opposed so what do they see that May doesn't or rather what don't they see that May does? Does the Prime Minister REALLY believe this is the best deal we could have got or is it simply the British deal she could get?
    The vast majority of MPs oppose any sort of Leave. Of those left there is a hard core who are idiotic enough to think that if this deal is defeated then we will Leave without a deal.

    I don't believe this is anywhere near the best deal we could have got under someone who actually understood Brexit but it is certainly the best deal we are going to get now.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,240
    edited November 2018
    Floater said:


    You a fan of flying pickets then stodge?

    Friend of mine got a kicking once for trying to work - nice bunch eh?

    40 years or more ago and the memory still lingers as presumably does the belief Corbyn will bring back Union power.

    As there are hardly any Union members left any more, I doubt it would mean anything.

    My remark slightly in jest but you catch more flies with honey than with flypaper. In any case, Corbyn is playing politics with this and he is a politician so there's no surprise.

    He is also trying to be all things to all people which is exactly what May was about between 2016 and the disastrous GE.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,666

    FF43 said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    Sounds like Corbyn would be open to an arrangement with Theresa May providing she made some commitment to a high integration end state.
    I think "a permanent customs union with a UK say" gives the lie to that. He doesn't want his tests to be passable under any circumstances.
    There won't be a meaningful say without membership of the EU. That's a given. The question is what Corbyn is prepared to sign up to. This hints he is prepared to sign up or abstain if May commits to Norway+ in my opinion. May will hate that because she's a very partisan politician. But it gives her a potential out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's statement doesn't mention "remain" once.

    Love it lol

    So the May apologists like you are going to lead us all over the cliff in March because we won't accept the Prime Minister's blessed "Deal"?

    To be fair, I've read the letter May has written to me and if the letter matched the content of the Deal no one could possibly be in opposition as it reads like the fulfilment of every LEAVE voter's fantasies short of Barnier and Juncker coming down every garden path in the UK and personally delivering each elector £1000 in twenty pound notes.

    Yet the vast majority of MPs and many others are opposed so what do they see that May doesn't or rather what don't they see that May does? Does the Prime Minister REALLY believe this is the best deal we could have got or is it simply the British deal she could get?
    There are good reasons to oppose the deal. That doesn't mean people blithely promising a brand new deal (it would have to be substantially different, as the criticisms are on fundamental aspects) are not being irresponsible. If someone doesn't want this deal, the timing is difficult to arrange a new one, and the EU have to be willing. If they are to vote against they need to be prepared to accept both remain and no deal as potential reactions, yet most are still pretending that we must not do one or the other, but that the EU will do exactly as we want. They might as well be Davis talking about the easiest deal in history, and I seem to recall plenty of people criticised that attitude, but now it is totally acceptable for people to just promise it will all work out in some vague fashion? Characterisation of that as May apologism seems distinctly unreasonable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609
    stodge said:

    Floater said:


    You a fan of flying pickets then stodge?

    Friend of mine got a kicking once for trying to work - nice bunch eh?

    He is also trying to be all things to all people which is exactly what May was about between 2016 and the disastrous GE.
    And it was wrong then as it is now.
  • PClipp said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    You would assume at least one of May or Corbyn will have to resign on that date. Possibly Cable as well if anyone else rebels.

    I would say OGH is wise to have cashed out, but Corbyn's continuing intransigence and incompetence doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    A sensible deal would be to say 'Sorry about all the time-wasting, but could you just confim that we don't have to accept everyone from the EU who rocks up on our shores without a job' and in response we wont elect the likes of Nigel Farage any more.
    A very sensible suggestion, Mr Cole. If only we had sensible leaders....
    Typical anti democrats thinking they can dictate who we choose to elect.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,140

    Surely the game is up when some of the die-hard PB Tories are already finger pointing at Corbyn for the unfolding fiasco that lies ahead.

    Corbyn is responsible for a lot of things, particularly the brick-by-brick demolition of his own party's electability. Brexit however is a train wreck painted blue!

    I can't get beyond wishful thinking as a reason for saying that Labour will take the blame for Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,754
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:



    So I expect on December 12th we are going to be in interesting times...

    Sounds like Corbyn would be open to an arrangement with Theresa May providing she made some commitment to a high integration end state.
    I think "a permanent customs union with a UK say" gives the lie to that. He doesn't want his tests to be passable under any circumstances.
    There won't be a meaningful say without membership of the EU. That's a given. The question is what Corbyn is prepared to sign up to. This hints he is prepared to sign up or abstain if May commits to Norway+ in my opinion. May will hate that because she's a very partisan politician. But it gives her a potential out.
    In the end it may come down to whether May, and the Conservative party more broadly, prefer an undisguised BINO stitch up or a second referendum. I think they'd prefer the latter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,609

    Surely the game is up when some of the die-hard PB Tories are already finger pointing at Corbyn for the unfolding fiasco that lies ahead.

    Corbyn is responsible for a lot of things, particularly the brick-by-brick demolition of his own party's electability. Brexit however is a train wreck painted blue!

    It's not his fault, clearly. He does, however, have the ability to remove the risk of no deal entirely. He has chosen to take that risk, which would be easier to criticise were it not for circa 100 tories doing the same, including 50-60 or so including Cabinet members who want a new deal doing the same thing.

    I think Corbyn's stance is not very helpful, frankly, but plenty of Tories have given him easy justification for his stance.
This discussion has been closed.