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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

Voters overwhelmingly now remember only two arguments being made in favour of Brexit before the referendum: curb immigration & more money for the NHS. pic.twitter.com/6bmcd3Tvwk

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    a desperate first.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,342
    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?
  • FPT: Matthew Hedges, British academic arrested in the UAE, has been pardoned with immediate effect:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    TSE wholeheartedly agrees.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    edited November 2018
    I think the most likely outcome if May cannot get her Deal through is the UK stays in the Customs Union permanently. Cabinet members like Hammond are reportedly ready to urge the PM to shift to that position to get Labour votes and if Corbyn becomes PM it would be his position too along with more protection for workers' rights.

    Remaining in the Customs Union ends free movement still, unlike the Norway option and still allows for some savings from money sent to the EU budget to continue to be put into the NHS thus respecting the two key pledges remembered by voters from the victorious Leave campaign.

    Given just 1% remember new trading opportunities outside the EU there will only be a small price to pay if staying in the Customs Union prevents that.

    As Alistair points out only 32% back No Deal which is not viable especially given the economic damage it would do too
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Jonathan said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    TSE wholeheartedly agrees.
    With no ulterior motive.

    Good news for the student of course, but Hunt is pretty crap.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    I agree with you, but sadly Mps do not. They are still fighting the last battle to remain or acting like it is a duty not merely good if it can be managed to meet every unrealistic expectation.

    We're pretty screwed and very likely to remain now.
  • Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    He certainly makes Boris seem incompetent.

    Which, to be fair, is not difficult.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    FPT: Matthew Hedges, British academic arrested in the UAE, has been pardoned with immediate effect:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310

    Good news, though in future if travelling to the UAE avoid doing any academic research, extra marital non heterosexual sex, drinking of alcohol, wearing of skimpy clothes and taking pills and you should be OK
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    ....and voters don't remember any arguments being made in favour of the EU.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,031

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    Indeed. At the cost of annoying Anazina, Meek's header today merits the one word response. This.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687
    Monkey's Paw is USN slang for hemorrhoids. My RIO had a fine collection.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    Dura_Ace said:

    Monkey's Paw is USN slang for hemorrhoids. My RIO had a fine collection.

    An early contender for post of the day I think.

    On topic I do have to commend remain for winning the long term war. Leavers had to overcome the opposition but things are only moving in one direction now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    I love how so many leavers, whose multi-stranded and inconsistent campaign (i.e. a lie) led directly to this mess, are now telling people that we cannot have a referendum where their side would have to settle on sane promises.

    I guess they don't believe in democracy ... ;)
  • tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,031
    rcs1000 said:


    If it was so brainless we shouldn't have had a referendum about it. But either way that doesn't address the fact that with a couple of years notice of an upcoming change we supposedly can't keep water flowing but we can supposedly mobilise for war at a moments notice?

    Cut the bullshit. Project Fear would be a lot more convincing if you didn't reach for blatant lies like that.

    There was no referendum about leaving the EU without a deal. There was a referendum about leaving the EU, and the people advocating it said it would be the easiest deal in the world, and dismissed the idea of there being no deal as Project Fear.
    Also, we've signed literally dozens of free trade deals with other countries.
    This should definitely be the prize for the next PB prediction competition:

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-the-board-game/

    I bet Fox has concluded literally dozens of trade deals playing this. Or not.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    He certainly makes Boris seem incompetent.

    Which, to be fair, is not difficult.
    In this instance not at all. He is almost certainly guilty so exerting muscle on a country that needs out trade is a rather a pyrrhic victory.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

    That's not what I'm getting at. What worries me is we won't be leaving all the other stuff. I guess it's a question of trust. Do I trust May? No.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

    Even given my scepticism about polling that’s a fairly chastening statistic!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    I agree with you, but sadly Mps do not. They are still fighting the last battle to remain or acting like it is a duty not merely good if it can be managed to meet every unrealistic expectation.

    We're pretty screwed and very likely to remain now.
    Well they think that they know better. This bunch of incompetents who collectively couldn't score in a brothel think that they know better. The cheek of it.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

    That's not what I'm getting at. What worries me is we won't be leaving all the other stuff. I guess it's a question of trust. Do I trust May? No.
    What “other stuff” that voters worried about?

    Make own laws: 4%
    Take back Control: 3%


    About one tenth of the concern over immigration
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    HYUFD said:

    FPT: Matthew Hedges, British academic arrested in the UAE, has been pardoned with immediate effect:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310

    Good news, though in future if travelling to the UAE avoid doing any academic research, extra marital non heterosexual sex, drinking of alcohol, wearing of skimpy clothes and taking pills and you should be OK
    When in Rome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    I agree with you, but sadly Mps do not. They are still fighting the last battle to remain or acting like it is a duty not merely good if it can be managed to meet every unrealistic expectation.

    We're pretty screwed and very likely to remain now.
    Well they think that they know better. This bunch of incompetents who collectively couldn't score in a brothel think that they know better. The cheek of it.
    In fairness it can be hard to score in a brothel when you are broke, intellectually and metaphorically.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited November 2018
    If you exclude can't remember/don't know then you get immigration 48%, NHS 26%.

    So three quarters of the reasoning. I think that's about right, was ALL about immigration round here.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,137
    Pulpstar said:

    If you exclude can't remember/don't know then you get immigration 48%, NHS 26%

    The thing I recall most from the referendum campaign was the lying , by both sides.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286
    edited November 2018
    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

    That's not what I'm getting at. What worries me is we won't be leaving all the other stuff. I guess it's a question of trust. Do I trust May? No.
    What “other stuff” that voters worried about?

    Make own laws: 4%
    Take back Control: 3%


    About one tenth of the concern over immigration
    FFS - I'm talking about FoM and the money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
    The promise was to leave. That's it. Amongst the many lies told about the extent of our entanglement with the EU over the years are you really saying that is undeliverable?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited November 2018
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
    The promises, as remembered are delivered - May's got back control of free movement and putting more money into the NHS.

    New trading opportunities, a stronger economy, taking back control and sovereignty/vassalage were not what people voted to leave on.
    Just because those priorities (Immigration, immigration, NHS in that order) aren't shared by most MPs and media commentators doesn't mean they weren't the most salient.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    I agree with you, but sadly Mps do not. They are still fighting the last battle to remain or acting like it is a duty not merely good if it can be managed to meet every unrealistic expectation.

    We're pretty screwed and very likely to remain now.
    Well they think that they know better. This bunch of incompetents who collectively couldn't score in a brothel think that they know better. The cheek of it.
    In fairness it can be hard to score in a brothel when you are broke, intellectually and metaphorically.
    I'll bow to your greater experience.
  • I wonder how the results are different for Remain and Leave voters?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,977
    Curb immigration and more money for the NHS? Mrs May may (sorry) be a poor politician but she's making the best of what she's got in this instance.

    The end to FOM (eventually) means the loss of any government's excuse for open borders. Those who want open borders are entitled to argue for them, but most people prefer some control. Not no immigration, which is only a straw man constructed as an argument for those who want unlimited immigration.

    £39 billion is being bandied about as a reasonable payment to the EU. By whose standards? We won't miss it, will we?

    The No-deal bogeyman is being used effectively by the media, and they may be right, even if economic forecasts are notoriously unreliable. But Labour's plea that "we could have done better' is simplistic, even for them, predictable, and unlikely to gain any traction with any but fervent Remainers.

    A re-run of the referendum may be the fervent Remainers' lifeline, but the Brexit campaign writes itself. Bend the knew to the EU now and all credibility is lost. What is the Remainer campaign? We are a servile nation and we must know our place? Good luck with that one.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286
    A very good header. I'd expect it to appear in the three intelligent newspapers still printing in the next couple of days.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

    That's not what I'm getting at. What worries me is we won't be leaving all the other stuff. I guess it's a question of trust. Do I trust May? No.
    What “other stuff” that voters worried about?

    Make own laws: 4%
    Take back Control: 3%


    About one tenth of the concern over immigration
    Not surprising. Most people live in safe seats and don't feel they have any influence over changes of government, anyhow.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
    That's what their paid for. The solution they have come up with is not great but it delivers what the people voted for so they should get on with it.
  • Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    FGM is already illegal.
  • alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,003
    Roger said:

    A very good header. I'd expect it to appear in the three intelligent newspapers still printing in the next couple of days.

    that would be the three that nobody reads because they lack celebrity scandals or short sentences?
  • Not much economic data this week but on Thursday we get the migration report for the year ending June 2018.

    It will be interesting to compare that report with this:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    because in the year ending June 2018 the number of non-UK people employed fell.

    If there has not been a corresponding collapse in immigration then there needs to be some pretty hard questions asked about which people, and for what purpose, are being allowed to migrate to the UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 24,263
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
    The promises, as remembered are delivered - May's got back control of free movement and putting more money into the NHS.

    New trading opportunities, a stronger economy, taking back control and sovereignty/vassalage were not what people voted to leave on.
    Just because those priorities (Immigration, immigration, NHS in that order) aren't shared by most MPs and media commentators doesn't mean they weren't the most salient.
    Nothing has been delivered on free movement yet and until the future relationship has been negotiated we won’t know. We’ve conceded the basic point that the four freedoms are indivisible. Part of the case for Brexit was that we didn’t believe they were and that the prospect of leaving would force concessions.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286

    Roger said:

    A very good header. I'd expect it to appear in the three intelligent newspapers still printing in the next couple of days.

    that would be the three that nobody reads because they lack celebrity scandals or short sentences?
    The very same
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    Rat Eyes is bit remainy for the Blue Horde. He's also previously gone off piste and expressed positive sentiments toward a second referendum.
  • Not much economic data this week but on Thursday we get the migration report for the year ending June 2018.

    It will be interesting to compare that report with this:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    because in the year ending June 2018 the number of non-UK people employed fell.

    If there has not been a corresponding collapse in immigration then there needs to be some pretty hard questions asked about which people, and for what purpose, are being allowed to migrate to the UK.

    Spanish retirees looking for their place in the drizzle?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286

    Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    FGM is already illegal.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/christopher-chope-fgm-bill-block-shouting_uk_5bf91301e4b0771fb6b8e41a
  • kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    TSE wholeheartedly agrees.
    With no ulterior motive.

    Good news for the student of course, but Hunt is pretty crap.
    It's a low bar. Two low bars: first to be a better Foreign Secretary than Boris, which he has just demonstrated by springing the student; then to be better than the other ministers in the contest to replace Theresa May. 16/1 with Shadsy. 16/1 against being preferred to Javid and a serial backstabber like Gove. Just remember to lay off if Hunt sends a gunboat to the Crimea.
  • Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
    The promises, as remembered are delivered - May's got back control of free movement and putting more money into the NHS.

    New trading opportunities, a stronger economy, taking back control and sovereignty/vassalage were not what people voted to leave on.
    Just because those priorities (Immigration, immigration, NHS in that order) aren't shared by most MPs and media commentators doesn't mean they weren't the most salient.
    Indeed.

    But do you think Lee Rowley understands that ?
  • Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    "Ah but democracy" bleat the people who are disinterested in not just democracy but the workings of our democratic system. There was a referendum. The government spent several years trying to deliver the wishes of the referendum. The government fell doing so and the only remaining options are remain or national ruin. The new government is NOT BOUND by a referendum held by a previous government when the only way to "respect" it is to destroy the economy. No government is bound by its predecessor and the people demanding that it should be "for democracy" need to read what that word means in the political system of the United Kingdom.

    Final point. How does this new minority government respect what the will of the people was? Look at the chart - migration and the NHS. The new government implements curbs on Free Movement by copying the Belgians - 3 months to find a job or we remove you. The new government strips the vast costs of the NHS market away and redirects the money from managing contracts into front line services. Done.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    Rat Eyes is bit remainy for the Blue Horde. He's also previously gone off piste and expressed positive sentiments toward a second referendum.
    A nod to a second referendum might look very astute if one is called, which cannot be ruled out. Whoever replaces May will be a bit remainy. The headbanger wing can't muster 48 letters, or even half that by some reports, so they won't get a Brexit hardliner anywhere near the final two.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,963
    Excellent header.

    Second referendum must be the most likely outcome now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286
    edited November 2018

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    I just heard a professor who was pretty categorical that Hedges had representation from the foreign office during his entire trial and after and that the UAE authorities had filmed evidence plus a confession that he was working for MI6 which they intend to release. Not a great look for a Foreign Secretary.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,999
    Sacré bleu!

    Jupiter is turning leverage into leaverage.
  • Although it turns out you don’t need to leave the EU to reduce immigration. Simply vote in a Government that continually spouts isolationist rhetoric, while pursuing a course that pushes growth towards the bottom of the league table. All of a sudden, not only will fewer people want to come here, some of your earlier arrivals will decide they also want to leave and go and work in hospitals overseas. Whodathunkit.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    FGM is already illegal.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/christopher-chope-fgm-bill-block-shouting_uk_5bf91301e4b0771fb6b8e41a
    Following your link, and links therein, I can read lots of assertion and Twitter moaning, even a reference to urban dictionary, but nothing on the detail of the proposed change, the problems that it solves and how it will make them better.

    I am instinctively inclined to think ill of Christopher Chope, but it would surely be better to have the substantive detail discussed, rather than to force me to take it on trust.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
    The promises, as remembered are delivered - May's got back control of free movement and putting more money into the NHS.

    New trading opportunities, a stronger economy, taking back control and sovereignty/vassalage were not what people voted to leave on.
    Just because those priorities (Immigration, immigration, NHS in that order) aren't shared by most MPs and media commentators doesn't mean they weren't the most salient.
    I disagree with Alastair and yourself that May is delivering the promises. The most important promise that Leave made was that Brexit would give you what you want at no cost. More fundamentally, political promises aren't delivered unless voters think they are delivered. Almost no-one, especially including Leavers, think May's deal delivers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 24,091
    edited November 2018
    Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    It's been illegal since 1985. Whatever he was objecting to, it wasn't that.
  • Roger said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    I just heard a professor who was pretty categorical that Hedges had representation from the foreign office during his entire trial and after and that the UAE authorities had filmed evidence plus a confession that he was working for MI6 which they intend to release. Not a great look for a Foreign Secretary.
    All the better for Hunt. Any fool can get an innocent man off. (We are betting without Boris here, obviously.)
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Excellent thread. The most prominent Leavers have “lost the heid” and are clearly unfit for office. Mrs May has secured what Leave voters voted for - not for the fantasies inside the Brexiteers heads.

    I'm sorry, but the jury is out on this until we see the final trade deal in x number of year's time.
    “New Trading Opportunities outside the EU”: 1%

    That's not what I'm getting at. What worries me is we won't be leaving all the other stuff. I guess it's a question of trust. Do I trust May? No.
    What “other stuff” that voters worried about?

    Make own laws: 4%
    Take back Control: 3%


    About one tenth of the concern over immigration
    FFS - I'm talking about FoM and the money.
    I doubt the voters will notice the money - its fractions of roundings in overall UK spending.

    Freedom of Movement on the other hand is not so much a red line as an electrified red line.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433

    Dura_Ace said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    Rat Eyes is bit remainy for the Blue Horde. He's also previously gone off piste and expressed positive sentiments toward a second referendum.
    A nod to a second referendum might look very astute if one is called, which cannot be ruled out. Whoever replaces May will be a bit remainy. The headbanger wing can't muster 48 letters, or even half that by some reports, so they won't get a Brexit hardliner anywhere near the final two.
    90 Tory MPs set to vote against the Deal on first vote, more than Leadsom got to get into the final 2 in 2016
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,704
    edited November 2018

    Not much economic data this week but on Thursday we get the migration report for the year ending June 2018.

    It will be interesting to compare that report with this:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    because in the year ending June 2018 the number of non-UK people employed fell.

    If there has not been a corresponding collapse in immigration then there needs to be some pretty hard questions asked about which people, and for what purpose, are being allowed to migrate to the UK.

    That is fascinating. Comparing like for like that's an incredible 144k drop in non-UK births being employed. Interesting to see a drop in both EU and non-EU. Considering we have full and record employment that should surely correspond with net emigration but I doubt we will see that on Thursday.

    Very surprising figures.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    FGM is already illegal.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/christopher-chope-fgm-bill-block-shouting_uk_5bf91301e4b0771fb6b8e41a
    I am instinctively inclined to think ill of Christopher Chope, but it would surely be better to have the substantive detail discussed, rather than to force me to take it on trust.
    Chope was on R4 supporting legislation to make it easier to prosecute cases of FGM - what he opposes is this method of getting it onto the statute books - take the example of 'up-skirting' - his objection led it to being included in government legislation, which has a much greater chance of getting into law.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Um. The referendum, if any, will because politicians haven't delivered on the promises made to the people.

    The reason is that the the promises are undeliverable. I'm not a huge fan of a second referendum however. The question doesn't get any more sensible for being asked twice.
    The promises, as remembered are delivered - May's got back control of free movement and putting more money into the NHS.

    New trading opportunities, a stronger economy, taking back control and sovereignty/vassalage were not what people voted to leave on.
    Just because those priorities (Immigration, immigration, NHS in that order) aren't shared by most MPs and media commentators doesn't mean they weren't the most salient.
    Indeed.

    But do you think Lee Rowley understands that ?
    Lee Rowley is a prime example of an MP whose priorities are different from his voters. He's pretty much as close to a true libertarian as you'll find amongst the Tory ranks.
    Still he's against fracking in Marsh Lane (Whilst not opposed nationally !) - which will probably ensure his survival. But on the EU he's miles out, NE Derbyshire is not a libertarian seat.

    Flint seems more in favour and more aligned to her voters. Not sure about Mann, he's been very quiet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,315
    HYUFD said:

    FPT: Matthew Hedges, British academic arrested in the UAE, has been pardoned with immediate effect:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310

    Good news, though in future if travelling to the UAE avoid doing any academic research, extra marital non heterosexual sex, drinking of alcohol, wearing of skimpy clothes and taking pills and you should be OK
    ...and having sex on the beach, assaulting police officers, customs officers, airline workers, taxi drivers, bringing drugs through the airport, filming immigration officers, drinking and driving, threatening to kill a car dealer, running an unlicenced cosmetic surgery clinic out of an hotel suite, feeling another man's arse in a nightclub, trying to pay an hotel bill with a stolen credit card - all things Brits have been jailed for in Dubai in the last couple of years, and all also illegal in the UK. There's a few borderline cases, like the transvestite using the women's bathroom in a mall, but we're dealing mostly with things that are illegal anywhere - it's just that these things get taken seriously in the sandpit.

    Oh, and don't travel to a country and start asking questions of officials for 'academic research' about recent and ongoing regional conflicts, which the local government are understandably somewhat sensitive about.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    FGM is already illegal.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/christopher-chope-fgm-bill-block-shouting_uk_5bf91301e4b0771fb6b8e41a
    I am instinctively inclined to think ill of Christopher Chope, but it would surely be better to have the substantive detail discussed, rather than to force me to take it on trust.
    Chope was on R4 supporting legislation to make it easier to prosecute cases of FGM - what he opposes is this method of getting it onto the statute books - take the example of 'up-skirting' - his objection led it to being included in government legislation, which has a much greater chance of getting into law.
    Doesn't stop him looking like both an utter arse and a hypocrite.
  • Roger said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    I just heard a professor who was pretty categorical that Hedges had representation from the foreign office during his entire trial and after and that the UAE authorities had filmed evidence plus a confession that he was working for MI6 which they intend to release. Not a great look for a Foreign Secretary.
    To quote John McEnroe: you can't be serious!

    A confession is pretty meaningless, even a filmed one, as who knows what duress he was under to say what his captors made him say? Both a spy and a non-spy would deny being one and confessing to being one would not come from a guilty conscience or desire to cleanse ones soul it comes from fear.

    The fact he has been released is what matters.
  • HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    Rat Eyes is bit remainy for the Blue Horde. He's also previously gone off piste and expressed positive sentiments toward a second referendum.
    A nod to a second referendum might look very astute if one is called, which cannot be ruled out. Whoever replaces May will be a bit remainy. The headbanger wing can't muster 48 letters, or even half that by some reports, so they won't get a Brexit hardliner anywhere near the final two.
    90 Tory MPs set to vote against the Deal on first vote, more than Leadsom got to get into the final 2 in 2016
    90 Tory MPs were set to write to the 1922 but unless a Number 10 SpAd was routinely clearing out Sir Graham Brady's pigeon hole each morning before the great man got in from breakfast, some Tory MPs don't always follow through.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965

    Although it turns out you don’t need to leave the EU to reduce immigration. Simply vote in a Government that continually spouts isolationist rhetoric, while pursuing a course that pushes growth towards the bottom of the league table. All of a sudden, not only will fewer people want to come here, some of your earlier arrivals will decide they also want to leave and go and work in hospitals overseas. Whodathunkit.

    I admit I didn't think it. I thought Brexit would make very little difference to immigration. But it goes to show Brexit can work at some level and we don't even need to leave the European Union. Making your country so unattractive that no-one wants to come here isn't exactly the same as controlling immigration, but that subtlety is no doubt lost on most voters.
  • Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    "Ah but democracy" bleat the people who are disinterested in not just democracy but the workings of our democratic system. There was a referendum. The government spent several years trying to deliver the wishes of the referendum. The government fell doing so and the only remaining options are remain or national ruin. The new government is NOT BOUND by a referendum held by a previous government when the only way to "respect" it is to destroy the economy. No government is bound by its predecessor and the people demanding that it should be "for democracy" need to read what that word means in the political system of the United Kingdom.

    Final point. How does this new minority government respect what the will of the people was? Look at the chart - migration and the NHS. The new government implements curbs on Free Movement by copying the Belgians - 3 months to find a job or we remove you. The new government strips the vast costs of the NHS market away and redirects the money from managing contracts into front line services. Done.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Judging by John Mann's twitter I'd say he's more likely to vote for the deal than against. I'm on the border of his and Flint's constituency ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286
    AndyJS said:

    Roger said:

    Christopher Chope objects to making FGM illegal. Strangely enough he's finding it difficult to defend his position though Peter Bone supports him. You couldn't invent these people as a caricature

    It's been illegal since 1985. Whatever he was objecting to, it wasn't that.
    He was interviewed by Nick Robinson on the subject this moning. I think it was to make prosecutions more likely. My next door neigbour is making a feature film on the subject 'The Girl from Mogadishu' so my interest was aroused
  • There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.
  • Mr. Nick, a second referendum is still odds against (2.37) on Ladbrokes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    Best of luck persuading Varadkar on that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    I just heard a professor who was pretty categorical that Hedges had representation from the foreign office during his entire trial and after and that the UAE authorities had filmed evidence plus a confession that he was working for MI6 which they intend to release. Not a great look for a Foreign Secretary.
    To quote John McEnroe: you can't be serious!

    A confession is pretty meaningless, even a filmed one, as who knows what duress he was under to say what his captors made him say? Both a spy and a non-spy would deny being one and confessing to being one would not come from a guilty conscience or desire to cleanse ones soul it comes from fear.

    The fact he has been released is what matters.
    When he was presented with the evidence he admitted his guilt apparently with an embassy official plus lawyer in attendance. Just because the people in the EAU wear funny costumes doesn't mean they still use thumb screws.
  • Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    "Ah but democracy" bleat the people who are disinterested in not just democracy but the workings of our democratic system. There was a referendum. The government spent several years trying to deliver the wishes of the referendum. The government fell the people demanding that it should be "for democracy" need to read what that word means in the political system of the United Kingdom.

    Final point. How does this new minority government respect what the will of the people was? Look at the chart - migration and the NHS. The new government implements curbs on Free Movement by copying the Belgians - 3 months to find a job or we remove you. The new government strips the vast costs of the NHS market away and redirects the money from managing contracts into front line services. Done.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
    Norway doesn’t address FoM - the voters top reason for voting to leave.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,999

    There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    Spot on.
    Trouble is some of the 27 jackals smell blood leaking from the self-inflicted backstop wound.
  • Pulpstar said:

    There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    Best of luck persuading Varadkar on that.
    If the alternative is no deal it is possible. If our government was led.by someone who wanted a deal, but preferred no deal over the backstop - which is essentially where our Parliament now is - then a deal that could get through Parliament would be far more likely.

    Varadkar does not want no deal.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,963
    edited November 2018



    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
  • There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    But the EU wouldn’t agree to it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,401

    FPT: Matthew Hedges, British academic arrested in the UAE, has been pardoned with immediate effect:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310

    Set our spy free or else
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    I just heard a professor who was pretty categorical that Hedges had representation from the foreign office during his entire trial and after and that the UAE authorities had filmed evidence plus a confession that he was working for MI6 which they intend to release. Not a great look for a Foreign Secretary.
    All the better for Hunt. Any fool can get an innocent man off. (We are betting without Boris here, obviously.)
    Good point!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,999

    Pulpstar said:

    There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    Best of luck persuading Varadkar on that.
    If the alternative is no deal it is possible. If our government was led.by someone who wanted a deal, but preferred no deal over the backstop - which is essentially where our Parliament now is - then a deal that could get through Parliament would be far more likely.

    Varadkar does not want no deal.
    Varadkar is a poker player who has bet the farm on a pair of sixes.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Norway/CU/Cameron+ migration fudge it is then.

    The biggest question is how fudgey it can get.
  • Sky reporting Hunt has been putting intense pressure on the UAE and it is evidenced in his twitter feed. The deal he struck seems to be one that the UAE were allowed to put out a face saving statement, (hence their announcement) in exchange for his release

    Looks like Jeremy Hunt has just done his reputation a lot of good
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    geoffw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    Best of luck persuading Varadkar on that.
    If the alternative is no deal it is possible. If our government was led.by someone who wanted a deal, but preferred no deal over the backstop - which is essentially where our Parliament now is - then a deal that could get through Parliament would be far more likely.

    Varadkar does not want no deal.
    Varadkar is a poker player who has bet the farm on a pair of sixes.
    I don't blame him really. He thought he had a much stronger hand than he did because he believed in THE POWER OF UNITY.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    geoffw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    Best of luck persuading Varadkar on that.
    If the alternative is no deal it is possible. If our government was led.by someone who wanted a deal, but preferred no deal over the backstop - which is essentially where our Parliament now is - then a deal that could get through Parliament would be far more likely.

    Varadkar does not want no deal.
    Varadkar is a poker player who has bet the farm on a pair of sixes.
    Beats Ace King heads up.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 387
    edited November 2018
    One of the premises of this thread is wrong. It says that Vote Leave focused mostly on immigration and more money for the NHS. In fact, if you actually look at their leaflets, they focused on taking back control and free trade about as much. See their leaflets here:

    https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:sav235yoh

    here:

    https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:put953zav

    and here:

    https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:wec467cet

    So their focus was just as much on trade deals and taking back control as it was on immigration and the NHS. They sought, and can claim, a mandate for both.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Sky reporting Hunt has been putting intense pressure on the UAE and it is evidenced in his twitter feed. The deal he struck seems to be one that the UAE were allowed to put out a face saving statement, (hence their announcement) in exchange for his release

    Looks like Jeremy Hunt has just done his reputation a lot of good

    We can all breathe a sigh of relief it wasn't Boris negotiating this or we'd probably be at war with the UAE by now.
  • Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    "Ah but democracy" bleat the people who are disinterested in not just democracy but the workings of our democratic system. There was a referendum. The government spent several years trying to deliver the wishes of the referendum. The government fell the people demanding that it should be "for democracy" need to read what that word means in the political system of the United Kingdom.

    Final point. How does this new minority government respect what the will of the people was? Look at the chart - migration and the NHS. The new government implements curbs on Free Movement by copying the Belgians - 3 months to find a job or we remove you. The new government strips the vast costs of the NHS market away and redirects the money from managing contracts into front line services. Done.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
    Norway doesn’t address FoM - the voters top reason for voting to leave.
    Agreed but it is the SNPs option
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,401

    Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
    Morning G, it is too sensible and hard to imagine May deigning to lower herself to talk to the SNP, she would rather crash and burn. She is now reaping what she sowed and her only friends , the DUP , have stuffed her as she deserves.


  • With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,401

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    UAE student pardoned with immediate effect.

    Hunt for PM...?

    16/1 with Shadsy for anyone who is not on, or fancies a press-up now Hunt has secured Hedges' release.
    I just heard a professor who was pretty categorical that Hedges had representation from the foreign office during his entire trial and after and that the UAE authorities had filmed evidence plus a confession that he was working for MI6 which they intend to release. Not a great look for a Foreign Secretary.
    To quote John McEnroe: you can't be serious!

    A confession is pretty meaningless, even a filmed one, as who knows what duress he was under to say what his captors made him say? Both a spy and a non-spy would deny being one and confessing to being one would not come from a guilty conscience or desire to cleanse ones soul it comes from fear.

    The fact he has been released is what matters.
    caught red handed , another bungling British Agent. How do these dummies get through spy school.
  • Fishing said:

    One of the premises of this thread is wrong. It says that Vote Leave focused mostly on immigration and more money for the NHS. In fact, if you actually look at their leaflets, they focused on taking back control and free trade about as much. See their leaflets here:

    https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:sav235yoh

    here:

    https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:put953zav

    and here:

    https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:wec467cet

    So their focus was just as much on trade deals and taking back control as it was on immigration and the NHS. They sought, and can claim, a mandate for both.

    What Leave said and why voters voted can be different things. Why should the PM expend energy on something that motivated 1%?
  • Sky reporting Hunt has been putting intense pressure on the UAE and it is evidenced in his twitter feed. The deal he struck seems to be one that the UAE were allowed to put out a face saving statement, (hence their announcement) in exchange for his release

    Looks like Jeremy Hunt has just done his reputation a lot of good

    We can all breathe a sigh of relief it wasn't Boris negotiating this or we'd probably be at war with the UAE by now.

    Boris would have said he was a spy...given his track record.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 387

    Fishing said:

    One of the premises of this thread .

    What Leave said and why voters voted can be different things. Why should the PM expend energy on something that motivated 1%?
    That is of course true: my point was a specific response to the author's statement that "It is hard to have much sympathy for Leave advocates. If they wanted a mandate for prioritising trade deals, they should have sought one."

    They did, so, by his argument, they do.
This discussion has been closed.