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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

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  • malcolmg said:

    Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
    Morning G, it is too sensible and hard to imagine May deigning to lower herself to talk to the SNP, she would rather crash and burn. She is now reaping what she sowed and her only friends , the DUP , have stuffed her as she deserves.
    Morning Malc. I do like to try to be sensible and post the deal falling she needs to bring forward a compromise. Whether she chooses this route is of course conjecture but it would be my preferred response.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Roger said:

    A very good header. I'd expect it to appear in the three intelligent newspapers still printing in the next couple of days.

    that would be the three that nobody reads because they lack celebrity scandals or short sentences?
    Or very large pictures and headlines
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    HYUFD said:

    FPT: Matthew Hedges, British academic arrested in the UAE, has been pardoned with immediate effect:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46341310

    Good news, though in future if travelling to the UAE avoid doing any academic research, extra marital non heterosexual sex, drinking of alcohol, wearing of skimpy clothes and taking pills and you should be OK
    or spying
  • There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    The backstop is the deal. It's pretty much the only substantive issue that has been difficult to agree. Both sides have given ground.
  • malcolmg said:

    Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
    Morning G, it is too sensible and hard to imagine May deigning to lower herself to talk to the SNP, she would rather crash and burn. She is now reaping what she sowed and her only friends , the DUP , have stuffed her as she deserves.
    Morning Malc. I do like to try to be sensible and post the deal falling she needs to bring forward a compromise. Whether she chooses this route is of course conjecture but it would be my preferred response.
    There is no compromise. It's no-deal, deal or no Brexit.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    No she doesn't. The opposition can lay a VONC whenever it pleases to.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547



    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    Whilst that is true it also means that the extent to which she loses first time around is important. If it is close then she can tweak something, anything, and try again. If she loses by 100+ she may have to resign. At the moment the latter is looking slightly more likely than the former. She is in a tough place.
  • Politically this is simple. The government have negotiated a deal with the EU which doesn't address most of the issues it was supposed to and does not command the confidence of Parliament. As "take back control" was the key slogan of the campaign, Parliament being the ultimate arbiter is EXACTLY what people voted for.

    The government's deal will be rejected heavily and I expect the government to fall with it. At that point we will have no deal with the EU and no government with a majority for anything other than stopping the UK crashing out of the EU. And that could be a minority Labour government or minority Tory government, but it will be in minority. And the only way to stop us crashing out amongst the chaos will be to rescind Article 50 and remain.

    "Ah but democracy" bleat the people who are disinterested in not just democracy but the workings of that word means in the political system of the United Kingdom.

    Final point. How does this new minority government respect what the will of the people was? Look at the chart - migration and the NHS. The new government implements curbs on Free Movement by copying the Belgians - 3 months to find a job or we remove you. The new government strips the vast costs of the NHS market away and redirects the money from managing contracts into front line services. Done.

    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it
    Norway doesn’t address FoM - the voters top reason for voting to leave.
    Agreed but it is the SNPs option
    I doubt May would countenance leaving FoM in place - she’s been given a task by the voters and will carry it through or perish politically in the attempt.
  • There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    The backstop is the deal. It's pretty much the only substantive issue that has been difficult to agree. Both sides have given ground.
    It's also the flashpoint and the only substantial issue where one side may need to give more ground.

    The deal is 585 pages long. If this deal can't get through Parliament due to the backstop, there's no time for a wholesale renegotiation and no deal is the reluctant alternative then that puts pressure back on the EU and Ireland to fix the backstop.

    Ireland remember doesn't want no deal. They don't want the hard border that will come from no deal.
    The EU remember doesn't want no deal. They have 39 billion reasons to want this deal passed.
  • There is a deal that could command a majority of Parliament. This deal minus the Irish Backstop. There isn't time for a wholesale renegotiation but there is time for a new or no backstop to be agreed. The question is whether there is the willpower.

    The backstop is the deal. It's pretty much the only substantive issue that has been difficult to agree. Both sides have given ground.
    You might as well say, "I will vote for the Finance Bill if all references to tax are removed."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
    That's what their paid for. The solution they have come up with is not great but it delivers what the people voted for so they should get on with it.
    David, It delivers nothing, it just lets us discuss a trade deal where they will take the shirt off our back because the numpties have given them carte blanche to hold us over a barrel to we agree to everything they want. A two year old would have got a better deal. Bit like saying you wanted your toenails cut and Theresa has got you a deal where both legs are cut off so she has done what you wanted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    She might only have 45 minutes warning of the requisite letters going in though.... If its clear she is ging down to a humiliating defeat, the Party can step in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sky reporting Hunt has been putting intense pressure on the UAE and it is evidenced in his twitter feed. The deal he struck seems to be one that the UAE were allowed to put out a face saving statement, (hence their announcement) in exchange for his release

    Looks like Jeremy Hunt has just done his reputation a lot of good

    I think they were probably always going to pardon him a few days after the conviction, although well done to Jeremy Hunt anyway.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
    That's what their paid for. The solution they have come up with is not great but it delivers what the people voted for so they should get on with it.
    David, It delivers nothing, it just lets us discuss a trade deal where they will take the shirt off our back because the numpties have given them carte blanche to hold us over a barrel to we agree to everything they want. A two year old would have got a better deal. Bit like saying you wanted your toenails cut and Theresa has got you a deal where both legs are cut off so she has done what you wanted.
    I am not a fan of May's deal but I think that's a bit of an overstatement Malcolm. I agree that most of the more important stuff has been deferred and that we have been put in a weaker position than we should have been for the subsequent negotiations. But we still leave and I think that is important, not least for our democracy. If I was an MP I would hold my nose, sigh with frustration and regret and vote for May's deal. Then get rid of her.
  • DavidL said:

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    Whilst that is true it also means that the extent to which she loses first time around is important. If it is close then she can tweak something, anything, and try again. If she loses by 100+ she may have to resign. At the moment the latter is looking slightly more likely than the former. She is in a tough place.
    Oddly enough losing by 100+ could just make it easier. If she can in all honesty say to the EU that she tried her best but there is no chance of getting this deal through, but if we can fix the Irish backstop issue then she can carry it through Parliament ... then the EU will be more likely to take the UK seriously which they havent until now.

    May's negotiations so far have been weak as she is weak and doesn't believe in what she is negotiating (except probably she does believe in ending FoM). A show of strength from Parliament could be just what we need.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    It would be politically impossible for May to delay an announcement of her next step by more than 24 hours after the vote. In practice I would expect it to follow immediately.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    White privilege can now apparently be borrowed.

    "Jamal Khashoggi’s borrowed white privilege made his murder count
    Khalid Albaih"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/26/jamal-khashoggi-white-privilege-murder-middle-east-dissidents
  • DavidL said:

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    Whilst that is true it also means that the extent to which she loses first time around is important. If it is close then she can tweak something, anything, and try again. If she loses by 100+ she may have to resign. At the moment the latter is looking slightly more likely than the former. She is in a tough place.
    Oddly enough losing by 100+ could just make it easier. If she can in all honesty say to the EU that she tried her best but there is no chance of getting this deal through, but if we can fix the Irish backstop issue then she can carry it through Parliament ... then the EU will be more likely to take the UK seriously which they havent until now.

    May's negotiations so far have been weak as she is weak and doesn't believe in what she is negotiating (except probably she does believe in ending FoM). A show of strength from Parliament could be just what we need.
    The EU are not going to go 'cripes, the HoC are serious, we better give them a better deal'

    It's nonsence. they're going to say. That's the deal, take it or leave it. they're not going to spend another 2 years to get to the same position we are in now.
  • Mr. Nick, turnout matters too.

    A 60% Remain on 75% turnout would, as you say, kill the issue for quite some time (for most people).

    A 60% Remain on 50% of turnout would lead to legitimacy arguments and keep the issue more alive and kicking.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    No she doesn't. The opposition can lay a VONC whenever it pleases to.
    Starmer agreed today that she will have 21 days in accordance with the legislation to respond. He expects her to do it quicker (as I do) but the ball is in TM court until she decides her next move
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
    That's what their paid for. The solution they have come up with is not great but it delivers what the people voted for so they should get on with it.
    David, It delivers nothing, it just lets us discuss a trade deal where they will take the shirt off our back because the numpties have given them carte blanche to hold us over a barrel to we agree to everything they want. A two year old would have got a better deal. Bit like saying you wanted your toenails cut and Theresa has got you a deal where both legs are cut off so she has done what you wanted.
    I am not a fan of May's deal but I think that's a bit of an overstatement Malcolm. I agree that most of the more important stuff has been deferred and that we have been put in a weaker position than we should have been for the subsequent negotiations. But we still leave and I think that is important, not least for our democracy. If I was an MP I would hold my nose, sigh with frustration and regret and vote for May's deal. Then get rid of her.
    "But we still leave". How, with the Irish suppository (aka backstop) in place?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited November 2018



    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
    The ubiquity of the English language and our non-contributory benefits system will continue to act as a significant draw - I think it would be very “brave” to think that the issue of immigration would disappear.


  • With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
    To be honest I really worry what happens if it goes to a second vote. The demons it could unleash worry me immensely and it should be avoided if at all possible.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    It would be politically impossible for May to delay an announcement of her next step by more than 24 hours after the vote. In practice I would expect it to follow immediately.
    Actually she has time even it you do not like it. However, I would expect no 10 is already gaming the loss of the deal and actions should be fairly quickly announced if not immediately
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    She might only have 45 minutes warning of the requisite letters going in though.... If its clear she is ging down to a humiliating defeat, the Party can step in.
    If it falls no letters will go in as the ERG and DUP will be content at that stage
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    Everybody is bluffing. There is no winning hand in Parliament
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Corbyn’s brother has tweeted that the EU is the 4th Reich, May is worse than Pétain, and all EU flags should be seized and destroyed.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234



    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
    The ubiquity of the English language and our non-contributory benefits system will continue to act as a significant draw - I think it would be very “brave” to think that the issue of immigration would disappear.
    It's funny though, because when people say it's about immigration, it isn't really. It's about the negative consequences of how UK benefits, housing, education and healthcare interact with the UK's careless immigration system.

    Nothing about staying in the EU prevents the UK from switching to contributory benefits, and adopting a system like many EU nations have where you have to register with your local town hall, and need an address and a job before the town will even let you "exist".

    I still believe, and I believe we will find out, that a great Euro-fudge on FOM is possible. The UK just needs to reframe the discussion, slightly.
  • DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
    That's what their paid for. The solution they have come up with is not great but it delivers what the people voted for so they should get on with it.
    David, It delivers nothing, it just lets us discuss a trade deal where they will take the shirt off our back because the numpties have given them carte blanche to hold us over a barrel to we agree to everything they want. A two year old would have got a better deal. Bit like saying you wanted your toenails cut and Theresa has got you a deal where both legs are cut off so she has done what you wanted.
    I am not a fan of May's deal but I think that's a bit of an overstatement Malcolm. I agree that most of the more important stuff has been deferred and that we have been put in a weaker position than we should have been for the subsequent negotiations. But we still leave and I think that is important, not least for our democracy. If I was an MP I would hold my nose, sigh with frustration and regret and vote for May's deal. Then get rid of her.
    I support that but would ask her to stand down and allow a leaders election. Not as hard as get rid of her but then I do think she has done the best anyone could have done in the circumstances
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited November 2018



    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
    The ubiquity of the English language and our non-contributory benefits system will continue to act as a significant draw - I think it would be very “brave” to think that the issue of immigration would disappear.
    Non-contributory benefits is the core issue here. Blair and Brown really should have fixed it back in 2005 when the problem was pointed out and the solution was achievable (the fix wasn't difficult you set qualification at 2 years and included the 2 years of education from 16-18 as part of the qualification period). It would even have solved a lot of the NEET problems...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Scott_P said:

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    Everybody is bluffing. There is no winning hand in Parliament
    Actually in Parliament nobody is bluffing. The numbers are there for all to see. The difficulty is that there are putatively three options. To get it resolved it needs to be boiled down to two.
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Sweden's Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven to be proposed as PM"

    https://www.thelocal.se/20181123/what-next-for-sweden-as-political-deadlock-drags-on
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234



    With respect that is a wish list.

    We all expect the deal to fall but the legislation provides 21 days for TM to respond.

    In that period she remains in office and the way forward is for her to decide. I would hope that with the backing of Amber Rudd and other moderate conservatives she will meet with the other party leaders including Nicola Sturgeon and pivot to Norway. We know this is SNP option and it would command general cross party support.

    Then in discussion with the EU the process is set down and with the EU agreement A50 is delayed a few months to allow the process including HOC agreement.

    This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
    To be honest I really worry what happens if it goes to a second vote. The demons it could unleash worry me immensely and it should be avoided if at all possible.
    My desire is that whatever direction we take should, as far as possible, resolve the great Euro-issue forever. I don't see a People's Vote ever doing that. It's impossible to say whether May's deal does, since all the hard decisions have been kicked into the long grass backstop.

    Ultimately, I think the only solution that will truly bring the whole sorry saga to a close is crashing out with no deal, and riding the tsunami of chaos and death out and see what remains.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)

  • This solution is brexit, protects jobs and industry, excludes UK from CFP and avoids the prospect of the nation tearing itself apart over a terribly divisive second referendum

    It would anger the purists but they do not matter. Coalescing around a sensible compromise is the way forward and navigates us towards the essential task of dealing with the domestic agenda

    This is my preferred route and I hope TM takes it

    This is possible but it would formalise the split in the Tory Party, many leavers would not suppprt a Norway option and the idea that May would go cap in hand to Sturgeon ( and, by implication,Corbyn) and ask for support is hard to imagine.

    I think it's more likely that the defeat of the deal will lead to irresistible calls for a second referendum from MPs of all parties.
    And massive division and a very unpredictable result
    Yes but I am actually optimistic that remain would win by a convincing margin and that divisions would simmer down in time, with the EU returning to its previous position as a second-order issue as it was from the mid 1980s until the early 2010s. No sane politician is going to advocate Brexit again in the foreseeable future.
    To be honest I really worry what happens if it goes to a second vote. The demons it could unleash worry me immensely and it should be avoided if at all possible.
    My desire is that whatever direction we take should, as far as possible, resolve the great Euro-issue forever. I don't see a People's Vote ever doing that. It's impossible to say whether May's deal does, since all the hard decisions have been kicked into the long grass backstop.

    Ultimately, I think the only solution that will truly bring the whole sorry saga to a close is crashing out with no deal, and riding the tsunami of chaos and death out and see what remains.
    Thats probably true.

    It's one of the depressing things about modern life, and how society has developed. We are unable to move on from the past. People are still bleating about 'iraq' and 'thatcher' and fighting the same old fights they've been doing for decades.

    The EU issue will be the same.

    (and that wouldn't solve it, as the campaign to then bring us back to the EU would be rolling on forever and a day).
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    White privilege can now apparently be borrowed.

    "Jamal Khashoggi’s borrowed white privilege made his murder count
    Khalid Albaih"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/26/jamal-khashoggi-white-privilege-murder-middle-east-dissidents

    I think the 'privilege' Kashoggi had was in being a *journalist*. If he'd been a plumber, the media would have long since moved on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    She might only have 45 minutes warning of the requisite letters going in though.... If its clear she is ging down to a humiliating defeat, the Party can step in.
    If it falls no letters will go in as the ERG and DUP will be content at that stage
    Continuity remain has the bigger problem immediately after the deal is voted down.
  • geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    We've been over this till we are blue in the face. The people voted to leave. They were told a lot of lies by both sides but made a judgment call on incomplete and contested facts. They did so in record numbers and the result, though close, was decisive.

    Politicians actually in office, as opposed to some ephemeral campaigns that were not, then have a duty to get on and deliver the vote of the people. I don't agree with May on much but in that she is spot on.

    Well that's alright, then. Just the minor detail of working out how it is to be done.
    That's what their paid for. The solution they have come up with is not great but it delivers what the people voted for so they should get on with it.
    David, It delivers nothing, it just lets us discuss a trade deal where they will take the shirt off our back because the numpties have given them carte blanche to hold us over a barrel to we agree to everything they want. A two year old would have got a better deal. Bit like saying you wanted your toenails cut and Theresa has got you a deal where both legs are cut off so she has done what you wanted.
    I am not a fan of May's deal but I think that's a bit of an overstatement Malcolm. I agree that most of the more important stuff has been deferred and that we have been put in a weaker position than we should have been for the subsequent negotiations. But we still leave and I think that is important, not least for our democracy. If I was an MP I would hold my nose, sigh with frustration and regret and vote for May's deal. Then get rid of her.
    "But we still leave". How, with the Irish suppository (aka backstop) in place?
    Yes and then deal with it even through International Courts. ERG are not looking forward enough. They have the WDA and transition upto 2022. That is the prize. Walk out no deal just collapses everything and makes us look like a pariah state to the world. ERG are being short sighted and could lose brexit for decades
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    The BBC (Tyne & Wear) are saying that 'He describes himself as "an intelligence analyst at a cyber-intelligence firm in the UK" and has been an advisor for consultancy firm Gulf State Analytics since January 2016.
    Corporate investigations, due diligence and research also appear in his areas of freelance consultancy expertise.'

    As well as being a PhD student.

    Hmm. Could be a fine line in someone's eyes. Reading that I'm a bit surprised he doesn't speak Arabic.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2018

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    You don't necessarily need the *EU* to compromise. TMay has a deal, and she doesn't currently have the votes to pass it. However, to date she has only negotiated with her cabinet and the DUP, so there may be other people in parliament who are prepared to vote for it in return for some other concession. The obvious concession is to offer EU-friendly MPs a referendum that would give them a hope of avoiding Brexit, but there might be other things she could offer; They may not require changes to the deal - for example, she could agree to match or exceed EU labour and environmental standards - or they might be completely unrelated, like fixing the Universal Credit so it doesn't screw as many people. We won't know until she tries.
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    I actually think that is TM hope. This deal will force positions in the open
  • Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    Hunt is just about the most grown-up politician in the Cabinet. A safe pair of hands
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    No she doesn't. The opposition can lay a VONC whenever it pleases to.
    Starmer agreed today that she will have 21 days in accordance with the legislation to respond. He expects her to do it quicker (as I do) but the ball is in TM court until she decides her next move
    Everything everyone says at the moment before the vote needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies.

    If Corbyn thought he could win a VONC he wouldn't blink before laying one but to suggest he would might prevent that scenario arising.
    If Varadkar didn't want to compromise but was prepared to he would say he never would right now.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    I do not expect cake, no. But I can see the EU being amenable to at least three alternative deals:

    1. Remain
    2. Norway+
    3. A minimal no-deal GB, with NI remaining in the EU

    Of course the EU are saying "there is no alternative". You always *say* that. Doesn't mean it's true.
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    - for example, she could agree to match or exceed EU labour and environmental standards - or they might be completely unrelated, like fixing the Universal Credit so it doesn't screw as many people. We won't know until she tries.
    We're not going to give up our social policy without representation.
  • DavidL said:

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    Whilst that is true it also means that the extent to which she loses first time around is important. If it is close then she can tweak something, anything, and try again. If she loses by 100+ she may have to resign. At the moment the latter is looking slightly more likely than the former. She is in a tough place.
    Oddly enough losing by 100+ could just make it easier. If she can in all honesty say to the EU that she tried her best but there is no chance of getting this deal through, but if we can fix the Irish backstop issue then she can carry it through Parliament ... then the EU will be more likely to take the UK seriously which they havent until now.

    May's negotiations so far have been weak as she is weak and doesn't believe in what she is negotiating (except probably she does believe in ending FoM). A show of strength from Parliament could be just what we need.
    The EU are not going to go 'cripes, the HoC are serious, we better give them a better deal'

    It's nonsence. they're going to say. That's the deal, take it or leave it. they're not going to spend another 2 years to get to the same position we are in now.
    They don't need 2 years. They need 1 change the rest is already agreeable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    The BBC (Tyne & Wear) are saying that 'He describes himself as "an intelligence analyst at a cyber-intelligence firm in the UK" and has been an advisor for consultancy firm Gulf State Analytics since January 2016.
    Corporate investigations, due diligence and research also appear in his areas of freelance consultancy expertise.'

    As well as being a PhD student.

    Hmm. Could be a fine line in someone's eyes. Reading that I'm a bit surprised he doesn't speak Arabic.
    He won't be doing any work for MI6 going forward, if he was an operative.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    Hunt is just about the most grown-up politician in the Cabinet. A safe pair of hands
    I'd ask a few NHS employees if they agree with that assessment, tbh.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    John_M said:

    AndyJS said:

    White privilege can now apparently be borrowed.

    "Jamal Khashoggi’s borrowed white privilege made his murder count
    Khalid Albaih"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/26/jamal-khashoggi-white-privilege-murder-middle-east-dissidents

    I think the 'privilege' Kashoggi had was in being a *journalist*. If he'd been a plumber, the media would have long since moved on.
    Kashoggi was much more than a journalist; he was deeply connected. He was related to Dodi Fayed, an arms dealer involved in the Iran-Contra affair, and his grandfather was physician to the founder of Saudi Arabia. Allegedly, until recently he was friends with people in the Saudi government.

    If he had just been an ordinary journalist, I reckon Turkey and Erdogan would probably have ignored what happened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    The critical issue is: does the EU think the backstop is worth risking commercial chaos and the loss of forty billion quid?

    So far, yes they do. Even if it means they are chained to a very angry honey badger.

    And wiser heads are unlikely to prevail.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    DavidL said:

    I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    Whilst that is true it also means that the extent to which she loses first time around is important. If it is close then she can tweak something, anything, and try again. If she loses by 100+ she may have to resign. At the moment the latter is looking slightly more likely than the former. She is in a tough place.
    Oddly enough losing by 100+ could just make it easier. If she can in all honesty say to the EU that she tried her best but there is no chance of getting this deal through, but if we can fix the Irish backstop issue then she can carry it through Parliament ... then the EU will be more likely to take the UK seriously which they havent until now.

    May's negotiations so far have been weak as she is weak and doesn't believe in what she is negotiating (except probably she does believe in ending FoM). A show of strength from Parliament could be just what we need.
    The EU are not going to go 'cripes, the HoC are serious, we better give them a better deal'

    It's nonsence. they're going to say. That's the deal, take it or leave it. they're not going to spend another 2 years to get to the same position we are in now.
    They don't need 2 years. They need 1 change the rest is already agreeable.
    I mean, it's not quite as simple as striking out all the backstop related text with a permanent marker and initialling the changes.

    But if May wants a deal, she needs to ditch the backstop, at any cost. Her career depends on it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    He’s Prime Minister in waiting.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if he became leader by acclamation.

    Compare and contrast with Boris and Iran.

    Obvs I’m talking impartialy and not talking up my book.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    No she doesn't. The opposition can lay a VONC whenever it pleases to.
    Starmer agreed today that she will have 21 days in accordance with the legislation to respond. He expects her to do it quicker (as I do) but the ball is in TM court until she decides her next move
    Everything everyone says at the moment before the vote needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies.

    If Corbyn thought he could win a VONC he wouldn't blink before laying one but to suggest he would might prevent that scenario arising.
    If Varadkar didn't want to compromise but was prepared to he would say he never would right now.
    With the greatest of respect you are not listening. The withdrawal bill in the HOC and now law gives the PM of the day 21 days to bring forward the response to the deal falling. Starmer understands and accepts that and expects in practicality as I do TM will respond in a timely manner but it is only on her response that the actions you mention can take place
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    Hunt is just about the most grown-up politician in the Cabinet. A safe pair of hands
    With no political beliefs whatsoever beyond his own personal advancement.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    Hunt is just about the most grown-up politician in the Cabinet. A safe pair of hands
    I'd ask a few NHS employees if they agree with that assessment, tbh.
    The NHS has been prioritised over everything (Police, councils, schools, defence, welfare) else !
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    He’s Prime Minister in waiting.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if he became leader by acclamation.

    Compare and contrast with Boris and Iran.
    White man
    No discernible personality
    Posh
    Doesn't like foreigners
    Screwed the NHS
    Beady little eyes

    I mean he's practically the archetype of a Tory PM
  • The critical issue is: does the EU think the backstop is worth risking commercial chaos and the loss of forty billion quid?

    So far, yes they do. Even if it means they are chained to a very angry honey badger.

    And wiser heads are unlikely to prevail.

    I have confidence wise heads would prevail. So far they see no need to compromise. This is all playing out in accordance with Game Theory.

    If they need to compromise only then will the truth come out. Until then they stay strong and as I said a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies in all statements denying ability to compromise.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    Except when the Germans opted out of freedom of movement for years of course.

    Who is behind the EU's insistence of freedom of movement?
  • Don't blog much about current events, but here's one on the demented idea to abolish real money:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-moving-to-digital-only-is-bad-thing_26.html
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    The critical issue is: does the EU think the backstop is worth risking commercial chaos and the loss of forty billion quid?

    So far, yes they do. Even if it means they are chained to a very angry honey badger.

    And wiser heads are unlikely to prevail.

    I have confidence wise heads would prevail. So far they see no need to compromise. This is all playing out in accordance with Game Theory.

    If they need to compromise only then will the truth come out. Until then they stay strong and as I said a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies in all statements denying ability to compromise.
    Parliament will need to come to a settled view on where to go next.

    And practically, it needs to do that before Parliament breaks up for Festivus.
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    I do not expect cake, no. But I can see the EU being amenable to at least three alternative deals:

    1. Remain
    2. Norway+
    3. A minimal no-deal GB, with NI remaining in the EU

    Of course the EU are saying "there is no alternative". You always *say* that. Doesn't mean it's true.
    It looks as if it is going to be tested very soon and in the test many issues may become more apparent. TM will have to challenge the EU and they will have to respond
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    He’s Prime Minister in waiting.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if he became leader by acclamation.

    Compare and contrast with Boris and Iran.
    White man
    No discernible personality
    Posh
    Doesn't like foreigners
    Screwed the NHS
    Beady little eyes

    I mean he's practically the archetype of a Tory PM
    He loves foreigners, he’s married to one.

    Plus he’s the richest member of the cabinet, richer than creases.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    No she doesn't. The opposition can lay a VONC whenever it pleases to.
    Starmer agreed today that she will have 21 days in accordance with the legislation to respond. He expects her to do it quicker (as I do) but the ball is in TM court until she decides her next move
    Everything everyone says at the moment before the vote needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies.

    If Corbyn thought he could win a VONC he wouldn't blink before laying one but to suggest he would might prevent that scenario arising.
    If Varadkar didn't want to compromise but was prepared to he would say he never would right now.
    With the greatest of respect you are not listening. The withdrawal bill in the HOC and now law gives the PM of the day 21 days to bring forward the response to the deal falling. Starmer understands and accepts that and expects in practicality as I do TM will respond in a timely manner but it is only on her response that the actions you mention can take place
    I am listening, I am disagreeing. Corbyn runs Labour not Starmer. If Corbyn thought he could win a VONC he would table it immediately.
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    I do not expect cake, no. But I can see the EU being amenable to at least three alternative deals:

    1. Remain
    2. Norway+
    3. A minimal no-deal GB, with NI remaining in the EU

    Of course the EU are saying "there is no alternative". You always *say* that. Doesn't mean it's true.
    Number 3 is a non-starter from the beginning. We're not spliting up the UK.

    1 Is probably of course an option, but thats not really leaving
    2 is possible, but then the ugly head of immigration raises it's head in a second referendum, and argueable if there's a majority in the house for it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Xenon said:


    Who is behind the EU's insistence of freedom of movement?

    The UK went further than it needed to on FoM whilst publicly proclaiming to want the opposite. It probably got leave over the line.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    I do not expect cake, no. But I can see the EU being amenable to at least three alternative deals:

    1. Remain
    2. Norway+
    3. A minimal no-deal GB, with NI remaining in the EU

    Of course the EU are saying "there is no alternative". You always *say* that. Doesn't mean it's true.
    It looks as if it is going to be tested very soon and in the test many issues may become more apparent. TM will have to challenge the EU and they will have to respond
    Indeed. The phony war is about to end. And I think it's literally impossible to adequately game what will happen when it does.
  • I think in this debate everyone needs to take on board that TM does have 21 days grace before the HOC can take action or labour lay a vnoc

    No she doesn't. The opposition can lay a VONC whenever it pleases to.
    Starmer agreed today that she will have 21 days in accordance with the legislation to respond. He expects her to do it quicker (as I do) but the ball is in TM court until she decides her next move
    Everything everyone says at the moment before the vote needs to be taken with a pinch of salt and a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies.

    If Corbyn thought he could win a VONC he wouldn't blink before laying one but to suggest he would might prevent that scenario arising.
    If Varadkar didn't want to compromise but was prepared to he would say he never would right now.
    With the greatest of respect you are not listening. The withdrawal bill in the HOC and now law gives the PM of the day 21 days to bring forward the response to the deal falling. Starmer understands and accepts that and expects in practicality as I do TM will respond in a timely manner but it is only on her response that the actions you mention can take place
    I am listening, I am disagreeing. Corbyn runs Labour not Starmer. If Corbyn thought he could win a VONC he would table it immediately.
    I give up
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    Hunt is just about the most grown-up politician in the Cabinet. A safe pair of hands
    With no political beliefs whatsoever beyond his own personal advancement.
    That's why he's a Tory politician.
  • Scott_P said:
    Whilst it's potentially sensible it won't happen under a tory government, and maybe not even under a labour one.
  • Scott_P said:
    Can’t we sell Gibraltar to Spain and use that money to fund the NHS?
  • The critical issue is: does the EU think the backstop is worth risking commercial chaos and the loss of forty billion quid?

    So far, yes they do. Even if it means they are chained to a very angry honey badger.

    And wiser heads are unlikely to prevail.

    I have confidence wise heads would prevail. So far they see no need to compromise. This is all playing out in accordance with Game Theory.

    If they need to compromise only then will the truth come out. Until then they stay strong and as I said a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies in all statements denying ability to compromise.
    Parliament will need to come to a settled view on where to go next.

    And practically, it needs to do that before Parliament breaks up for Festivus.
    Unlikely. The break up for Christmas will provide the opportunity needed to renegotiate the sticking point (the backstop), find a face saving way for Varadkar to retreat after overreaching then reach a deal.in the New Year that is promptly rushed through to an almighty sigh of relief.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Xenon said:

    The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    Except when the Germans opted out of freedom of movement for years of course.

    Who is behind the EU's insistence of freedom of movement?
    They didn’t. You must be confusing the transition period as part of every accession process.
  • Mr. Eagles, whilst I don't entirely disagree, "more grown-up than Boris" is about as backhanded a compliment as "more historically accurate than Braveheart".
  • The truth is, we don't know what kind of Parliamentary compromise is possible. Maybe none.

    But since May hasn't bothered to try, we can't know until we force her hand. Once the deal goes down, everyone will have to reveal their hands and we'll know who has 2-7 offsuit and who's been sneakily sitting on some pocket rockets.

    That's a fundamental mis-understanding of how the EU are looking at this. There is no compromise, and there never will be. There is the deal, or there is no deal.
    I mean, we don't know that. At the moment, we're being asked to trust the word of 27 politicians who do not have our best interests at heart.

    Once May's deal goes down, only then will we see the EU's actual plan B, whatever it is.

    (And please don't test our patience by implying the Commission hasn't been soft-pedalling a Plan B. Even if that Plan B is to order Ireland to start building a border fence.)
    We also don't not know that. But clearly the principles of the EU are there in the 4 freedoms, and that IS absolute.
    I do not expect cake, no. But I can see the EU being amenable to at least three alternative deals:

    1. Remain
    2. Norway+
    3. A minimal no-deal GB, with NI remaining in the EU

    Of course the EU are saying "there is no alternative". You always *say* that. Doesn't mean it's true.
    It looks as if it is going to be tested very soon and in the test many issues may become more apparent. TM will have to challenge the EU and they will have to respond
    Indeed. The phony war is about to end. And I think it's literally impossible to adequately game what will happen when it does.
    Agreed and thank you for a sensible discussion. I have received instructions from my nearly 16 year old granddaughter today that she wants some make up brushes for Xmas and we are talking mega bucks here, not B & Q black Friday £5 ones so am going to leave for now to research the best deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Scott_P said:
    Norway- :), basically get control of our fisheries for sacrificing our MEPs ?

    In theory it is fine but there isn't time or will in the EU to negotiate it.
  • Mr. Eagles, whilst I don't entirely disagree, "more grown-up than Boris" is about as backhanded a compliment as "more historically accurate than Braveheart".

    That’s why he said he’s also Prime Minister in waiting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foreignersforeignersforeignersforeignersforeigners.

    IrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIrelandIreland.

    Other than that, the deal is done.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Pulpstar said:

    Xenon said:


    Who is behind the EU's insistence of freedom of movement?

    The UK went further than it needed to on FoM whilst publicly proclaiming to want the opposite. It probably got leave over the line.
    Whatever the rights and wrongs of mass immigration, it's clear that all the main political parties will continue with it regardless of what the public think.
  • There is a difference between May legally having 21 days to respond to the deal being voted down heavily and May politically being able to do so.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited November 2018
    Empty vessels need to fulfil their contractual obligation to write the same high level commentary every week.
  • One of the Brexiters legal challenges has failed. As a non lawyer it always looked exceptionally weak to me.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/nov/26/european-court-rejects-british-expats-brexit-referendum-harry-shindler
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited November 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    Good on Hunt for allowing the UAE to save face with the spying statement nonsense (I think its nonsense anyway !) and let Hedges free.

    Hunt is just about the most grown-up politician in the Cabinet. A safe pair of hands
    I'd ask a few NHS employees if they agree with that assessment, tbh.
    Given that he had a vicious conspiracy campaign waged against him for a number of years - it was one of Dr Eoin Clarke's famous apologies, that well may be poisoned.

    Witness the tweet from Andrew Cooper, and the second half of the first paragraph in the article, about Brexiters being driven by immigration etc, whilst the polls after the referendum were quite clear that it was sovereignty not immigration. Here was Lord Ashcroft's 12000 sample poll just after the Referendum:

    Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

    That does not sound like the public believed and responded, as alleged, significantly to the stuff about "Turks".

    If you tell people enough fairytales for long enough, some people start to say they believe it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Scott_P said:
    Will bypassing MPs to negotiate with their constituents be any more successful than bypassing Barnier?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Scott_P said:
    Can’t we sell Gibraltar to Spain and use that money to fund the NHS?
    Couldn't we throw in Hartlepool and Stoke?
  • Corbyn’s brother has tweeted that the EU is the 4th Reich, May is worse than Pétain, and all EU flags should be seized and destroyed.

    Piers Corbyn's brother tweeted that?!
  • Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Can’t we sell Gibraltar to Spain and use that money to fund the NHS?
    Couldn't we throw in Hartlepool and Stoke?
    No, we’d have to pay Spain money to take Stoke and Hartlepool off our hands.

    I mean have you ever been there? Donald Trump would call them shit holes.
  • The critical issue is: does the EU think the backstop is worth risking commercial chaos and the loss of forty billion quid?

    So far, yes they do. Even if it means they are chained to a very angry honey badger.

    And wiser heads are unlikely to prevail.

    I have confidence wise heads would prevail. So far they see no need to compromise. This is all playing out in accordance with Game Theory.

    If they need to compromise only then will the truth come out. Until then they stay strong and as I said a heavy dose of Mandy Rice-Davies in all statements denying ability to compromise.
    Parliament will need to come to a settled view on where to go next.

    And practically, it needs to do that before Parliament breaks up for Festivus.
    Unlikely. The break up for Christmas will provide the opportunity needed to renegotiate the sticking point (the backstop), find a face saving way for Varadkar to retreat after overreaching then reach a deal.in the New Year that is promptly rushed through to an almighty sigh of relief.
    If Varadkar " overreached " why is everything he wanted now written into a draft international treaty which is UK Government policy ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Can’t we sell Gibraltar to Spain and use that money to fund the NHS?
    Couldn't we throw in Hartlepool and Stoke?
    Stoke has Bet365 and Alton Towers, but who in their right mind buys Hartlepool ?
This discussion has been closed.