Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the odds on-favourite

After yesterday’s historic agreement attention now turns to whether the House of Commons is going to accept what Mrs May has agreed with the EU.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Premier class.
  • Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.
  • Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
  • Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    As Jezza's fluffer?
  • Boris's hair is becoming more like a Trumpesque combover. Also, I don't think he wants Theresa May to be Prime Minister.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 685
    edited November 2018
    FPT

    Mueller getting closer to Nige according to latest reports that Jerome Corsi has been offered a plea bargain deal for perjury re Wikileaks and Assange...




  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
  • A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.
  • Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    As Jezza's fluffer?
    Does Jezza have a second job we should know about?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885
    FPT
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.

    They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.
    That statement is open to challenge and there's certainly no reason to take Theresa May's word for it. The point is there is a choice of bad plans, which are bad in different ways. So we could go to Norway plus customs union, which deals with Ireland and is a relatively low impact Leave but is maximum vassal state. There's remaining in the EU, which would be by far the best outcome except people have formally rejected in a vote. There's "no deal" which might allow freedom from EU structures but is probably unviable. Then there's May's plan which typical for the woman resolves nothing at all but maintains the Brexit delusion a bit longer. We should debate what form of crapness we are going for. Mrs May's isn't necessarily the least bad.
    None of those obviate the need for the backstop, which is the principal objection to the deal.
    Returning to my original comment, the Withdrawal Agreement is a done deal in every scenario, except possibly No Deal. Even that's uncertain because it seems unlikely we would never have a deal with the EU on anything at all, ever. But the End State is up for grabs. Remain and Norway+ make the backstop disappear; May's Chequers 2 plan doesn't; Canada doesn't and No Deal probably doesn't for the reasons I have just given. We don't need to take or leave May's plan.
    The May plan, as far as it relates to the political declaration, is really the May deceit. She's still not being honest about the logic of the trade offs.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581
    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,513
    edited November 2018

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    Won't a lot depend not just on the final vote, but on the amendments? In fact, the passing (or not) of amendments are likely to change how MPs vote on the final division - for example, if a referendum has been ruled out or mandated.

    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
  • Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
    He views them as glorified opinion polls.

    Personally I expect it’ll be like 1972 all over again as Labour rebels come to the rescue of a Tory Prime Minister.

    There’s an irony if that happens.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,081

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    As Jezza's fluffer?
    Don’t start that again. You’ll get one of our female members all of a doo-dah!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,122

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    50 perhaps? Maybe she'd still have a slim hope at 80? But May is not a persuader, her technique is to take decisions in a tightly knit coterie of advisers and then spring them on people when it's too late to have any debate. As we saw from her time at the Home Office and the dementia tax disaster last year. She just keeps on saying she is right and it's in the national interest. Where are the arguments that might be deployed to bring the waverers on board?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    edited November 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
    He views them as glorified opinion polls.

    Personally I expect it’ll be like 1972 all over again as Labour rebels come to the rescue of a Tory Prime Minister.

    There’s an irony if that happens.
    Judging by their twitter feeds I've got Flint and Mann voting with the government. Any others ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
    He views them as glorified opinion polls.

    Personally I expect it’ll be like 1972 all over again as Labour rebels come to the rescue of a Tory Prime Minister.

    There’s an irony if that happens.
    Judging by their twitter feeds I've got Flint and Mann voting with the government. Any others ?
    Among non Labour opposition MPs, Frank Field, Lady Hermon, Stephen Lloyd.
  • Top trolling by the Bank of England:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/margaret-thatcher-new-50-note-bank-england-scientist-shortlist-mark-carney-ada-lovelace-a8652816.html

    (Thatcher won't be on any banknote in our lifetimes - she's far too polarising)
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
    He views them as glorified opinion polls.

    Personally I expect it’ll be like 1972 all over again as Labour rebels come to the rescue of a Tory Prime Minister.

    There’s an irony if that happens.
    Judging by their twitter feeds I've got Flint and Mann voting with the government. Any others ?
    Among non Labour opposition MPs, Frank Field, Lady Hermon, Stephen Lloyd.
    It is refreshing that at least a handful of Labour MPs are putting their constituents first, rather than running scared of the Corbyn cult.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.


    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
    I don't know how they can achieve that.
  • Scott_P said:
    Out of date though. Smooth and orderly appeared alongside strong and stable more than half a dozen times in the 2017 manifesto. The new slogan seems to be "balanced approach to the economy" as noted earlier in this thread.
  • I was just going to ask about this :)

    FPT: Mr. Pointer, I agree. This could still make it through the Commons.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    Won't a lot depend not just on the final vote, but on the amendments? In fact, the passing (or not) of amendments are likely to change how MPs vote on the final division - for example, if a referendum has been ruled out or mandated.

    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
    The only amendment that could achieve that is "That this house believes this deal, even if rejected that this bill passes into law on 29th March 2018" (sorry I'm not completely au fait with the flowery language)
  • A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    It depends surely upon whether any amendments are made by Europe after a rejection.

    To one extent, played right, a mammoth HoC defeat could assist May be the logic someone used to say a hung Parliament could help May in the negotiations. If after a mammoth defeat Varakar and Barnier get a fright and thing that actually a concession is needed on the subject of the backstop in order to rescue the deal then that should guarantee the deal goes through on the second go.

    As it stands I think this deal is a 'bad deal' and agree with May's maxim that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'. If OTOH the backstop was fixed then the meat of the rest of the deal is acceptable. I suspect reading between the lines most Tory MPs opposed to this would agree.

    Eliminate the backstop you eliminate the rebellion and ultimately we [almost] all want there to be a deal, we just disagree on how to get there.
  • Only if they get the answer right.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,938
    Theo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
    He views them as glorified opinion polls.

    Personally I expect it’ll be like 1972 all over again as Labour rebels come to the rescue of a Tory Prime Minister.

    There’s an irony if that happens.
    Judging by their twitter feeds I've got Flint and Mann voting with the government. Any others ?
    Among non Labour opposition MPs, Frank Field, Lady Hermon, Stephen Lloyd.
    It is refreshing that at least a handful of Labour MPs are putting their constituents first, rather than running scared of the Corbyn cult.
    Their constituents, or at least the ones that voted them in, want the Tories turfed out.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,275
    How on earth is this going to pass Parliament unless something major happens in the next 2 weeks?
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 507
    edited November 2018
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/26/letter-jeremy-corbyn-peoples-vote-brexit-labour-gina-miller

    When the people had a say it was vital parliament be given the opportunity to block it. Now parliament has a say it is apparently vital that the people must be able to overturn it in favour of remaining. It seems clear that contrary to her initial claims her only principle here is that we must remain.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 1,275
    Scott_P said:
    Like Boris Johnson, IDS and Michael Fallon?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,317
    edited November 2018

    Only if they get the answer right.....
    twitter.com/politicshome/status/1067093123564634112

    MI5 is stocking up on rubbers to ensure the next vote gives the right answer. :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    How on earth is this going to pass Parliament unless something major happens in the next 2 weeks?

    How on earth is support for any kind of Brexit going to withstand 2 weeks of this?
  • Miss Vance, bully for them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157
    Tone looks more and more sinister by the day! :D
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917

    Scott_P said:
    Like Boris Johnson, IDS and Michael Fallon?
    Fallon's a Remainer. Shame his constituency was the most ardent Leave in West Kent - and that's saying something.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581
    I'm sure that if the vote went against him, there would be reasons why it was not final and binding.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    A picture of Dorian Gray springs to mind whenever I see Tony's face.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581
    edited November 2018
    As it happens, that is correct. The UK's prosperity will indeed turn on domestic decisions in coming years.
  • Scott_P said:
    You have to give him a break, he is old and this is all very confusing for somebody of such limited intellect...
  • I was thinking, after the success of "The Match" on Friday night, despite those being involved being absolutely crap....perhaps May vs Corbyn debate could repeat the same format. PPV, in play betting with Ray popping up to tell us the latest odds, etc.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 6,319

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Vince angling to be in on TV debates.

    Thought that might happen.

    Vince who?
    Vince should take a line out of the SDLP's book and get behind the deal. His line is almost as reprehensible as Corbyn's or the ERGs.
    If the deal fails. THEN you put the decision back to the people.
    I expect Ken Clarke will pivot back to the people's vote after the deal is rejected.
    Ken Clarke has never favoured referenda.
    He views them as glorified opinion polls.

    Personally I expect it’ll be like 1972 all over again as Labour rebels come to the rescue of a Tory Prime Minister.

    There’s an irony if that happens.
    It was October 1971.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    Sean_F said:

    I'm sure that if the vote went against him, there would be reasons why it was not final and binding.
    The only reason why there'll be a 2nd vote is because the Tories will have made a complete horlicks of implementing the first one. It'll not be Blair's fault.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,294
    edited November 2018
    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
  • Grieve - "our problems have barely begun".

    What a mess.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    Well, of course, Leavers are in a smallish minority in the HoC.
  • Pulpstar said:

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    Won't a lot depend not just on the final vote, but on the amendments? In fact, the passing (or not) of amendments are likely to change how MPs vote on the final division - for example, if a referendum has been ruled out or mandated.

    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
    The only amendment that could achieve that is "That this house believes this deal, even if rejected that this bill passes into law on 29th March 2018" (sorry I'm not completely au fait with the flowery language)
    Surely even that wouldn't suffice since all amendments fail if the bill fails. In order for any amendments to become law, the bill they're amending must become law.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
  • Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    Well, of course, Leavers are in a smallish minority in the HoC.
    Yet a majority of the country. I seem to recall there were about 100 which is a smallish majority but some of those should be enthusiastic. Who is?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    Brexit means Brexit. It's practically a koan. I'm delighted that she's got a deal, curate's egg though it may be.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581
    edited November 2018

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    I'm not enthusiastic about it, but I prefer it to any plausible alternative.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    edited November 2018
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,730

    Pulpstar said:

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    Won't a lot depend not just on the final vote, but on the amendments? In fact, the passing (or not) of amendments are likely to change how MPs vote on the final division - for example, if a referendum has been ruled out or mandated.

    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
    The only amendment that could achieve that is "That this house believes this deal, even if rejected that this bill passes into law on 29th March 2018" (sorry I'm not completely au fait with the flowery language)
    Surely even that wouldn't suffice since all amendments fail if the bill fails. In order for any amendments to become law, the bill they're amending must become law.
    If a wrecking amendment is passed saying (e.g.) “this deal may not be accepted, and the government is instructed to return for further negotiations; but in the event of no deal being reached by 31 Jan the government must seek to revoke A50” that would work - the government would have to whip to vote the bill down at that stage, but logically those who voted for the amendment would then vote the amended bill into law.

    Not sure whether the speaker would allow the amendment though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    edited November 2018
    I see Edward Leigh has raised the question of abrogation... not immediately dismissed by May.

    Could this be the comfort blanket the wobbly Tory Brexiters need?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
    From a non-EU visitor perspective at that airport, those EU visitors are being given preferential treatment as they enter more smoothly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    What rubbish, how can you queue jump when you are following the legal process. They take their rightful place based on the laws implemented by the Tories.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993

    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
    From a non-EU visitor perspective at that airport, those EU visitors are being given preferential treatment.
    Due to FOM within the EU but noone is jumping any queues at present.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684
    edited November 2018
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    Er. Cos if it is perfectly legal it isn't queue jumping? It is following the lawful process.
    Edit. Malcolm got in first!
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    I am a Leaver and very enthusiastic about this deal. Controlled immigration, membership fees ended, British courts sovereign, the ability to have global trade in services while maintaining continental supply chains in goods. It's great. But then I make decisions based on what I am for rather than this modern attitude of just trying to oppose people I dislike.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
    From a non-EU visitor perspective at that airport, those EU visitors are being given preferential treatment.
    Due to FOM within the EU but noone is jumping any queues at present.
    Legally, but we are talking about perception. and that's what May probably meant by her original comment. Anway, she's now apologised as it's easier to do that than argue the case.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073
    FFS - PB has decended into a philosophical debate on the nature of queues! :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885
    Theo said:

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    I am a Leaver and very enthusiastic about this deal. Controlled immigration, membership fees ended, British courts sovereign, the ability to have global trade in services while maintaining continental supply chains in goods. It's great. But then I make decisions based on what I am for rather than this modern attitude of just trying to oppose people I dislike.
    It's a fantasy. If you want frictionless trade you have to maintain free movement and this deal commits to that in writing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 25,581
    Polruan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    Won't a lot depend not just on the final vote, but on the amendments? In fact, the passing (or not) of amendments are likely to change how MPs vote on the final division - for example, if a referendum has been ruled out or mandated.

    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
    The only amendment that could achieve that is "That this house believes this deal, even if rejected that this bill passes into law on 29th March 2018" (sorry I'm not completely au fait with the flowery language)
    Surely even that wouldn't suffice since all amendments fail if the bill fails. In order for any amendments to become law, the bill they're amending must become law.
    If a wrecking amendment is passed saying (e.g.) “this deal may not be accepted, and the government is instructed to return for further negotiations; but in the event of no deal being reached by 31 Jan the government must seek to revoke A50” that would work - the government would have to whip to vote the bill down at that stage, but logically those who voted for the amendment would then vote the amended bill into law.

    Not sure whether the speaker would allow the amendment though.
    I don't think that will work to repeal The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,073

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
    From a non-EU visitor perspective at that airport, those EU visitors are being given preferential treatment.
    Due to FOM within the EU but noone is jumping any queues at present.
    Legally, but we are talking about perception.
    Oi! It's my turn to post on this sub-thread!
  • Sean_F said:

    As it happens, that is correct. The UK's prosperity will indeed turn on domestic decisions in coming years.
    ... it's just that the prosperity would be lower than if we don't leave.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    I am a Leaver and very enthusiastic about this deal. Controlled immigration, membership fees ended, British courts sovereign, the ability to have global trade in services while maintaining continental supply chains in goods. It's great. But then I make decisions based on what I am for rather than this modern attitude of just trying to oppose people I dislike.
    It's a fantasy. If you want frictionless trade you have to maintain free movement and this deal commits to that in writing.
    No such thing as frictionless trade. We have friction in trade with the EU right now. What this does do is provide access to European supply chains while allowing us to slash unskilled immigration. Exactly what Britain needs.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917

    Sean_F said:

    As it happens, that is correct. The UK's prosperity will indeed turn on domestic decisions in coming years.
    ... it's just that the prosperity would be lower than if we don't leave.
    Says some economists somewhere.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,157

    FFS - PB has decended into a philosophical debate on the nature of queues! :lol:

    Maybe we should discuss Sean T's internet tabs... MUCH more interesting! :D
  • But Rory is on front bench, two or three away from May.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    Remainers have been in a state of perpetual outrage since the leave vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,000
    edited November 2018
    Says journo who never seems to actually do any work for his primary employer the Mirror...
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    edited November 2018

    I see Edward Leigh has raised the question of abrogation... not immediately dismissed by May.

    Could this be the comfort blanket the wobbly Tory Brexiters need?

    This is what the ERG is being so stupid about. Obviously May can't talk about it, but once outside the EU we will be a sovereign country able to join and leave any agreement we want to. Give it ten years and if the constraints of a customs agreement are too much, make a push to leave then. At some point you need to bank all the wins you have had so far.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,996
    edited November 2018
    malcolmg said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    What rubbish, how can you queue jump when you are following the legal process. They take their rightful place based on the laws implemented by the Tories.
    Shall we call it legalised queue-jumping? ;)
  • Mr. Pointer, maybe I should write an article comparing Northern Ireland's situation to the Monophysite and Arian heresies...
  • dixiedean said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    Er. Cos if it is perfectly legal it isn't queue jumping? It is following the lawful process.
    So far as I'm aware, queue jumping in normal life isn't illegal either, it just tends to make those being 'jumped', who were part of the queue (if judged in chronological order), annoyed. So legality is surely beside the point.
  • malcolmg said:


    What rubbish, how can you queue jump when you are following the legal process. They take their rightful place based on the laws implemented by the Tories.

    Why does queue jumping have to imply illegality?

  • F1: Alexander Albon confirmed for Toro Rosso next year:
  • So like a CNN reporter at a Trump press conference...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895

    But Rory is on front bench, two or three away from May.
    the wee sook is desperate, what a jessy boy.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
    From a non-EU visitor perspective at that airport, those EU visitors are being given preferential treatment.
    Due to FOM within the EU but noone is jumping any queues at present.
    Legally, but we are talking about perception. and that's what May probably meant by her original comment. Anway, she's now apologised as it's easier to do that than argue the case.
    It just cracks me up the way people fake horror at such an innocuous statement.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,895

    malcolmg said:


    What rubbish, how can you queue jump when you are following the legal process. They take their rightful place based on the laws implemented by the Tories.

    Why does queue jumping have to imply illegality?

    where did the queue come from in first place, it is imaginary in May's twisted mind.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,730
    Sean_F said:

    Polruan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question, on which I have no settled view, is what is the minimum size of defeat of the deal that would allow Theresa May to continue to press its merits on a dubious House? If it goes down by less than 20, clearly she is still fighting. If it goes down by more than 100, could she keep arguing for it (and if so how)?

    On current numbers as advertised by the various interested groups, it looks like it will lose by well over 100.

    Won't a lot depend not just on the final vote, but on the amendments? In fact, the passing (or not) of amendments are likely to change how MPs vote on the final division - for example, if a referendum has been ruled out or mandated.

    Edit: Similarly, Labour say they are going to try to amend the bill to rule out 'no deal'. I've no idea how they could do this, but if they were successful, Leavers might prefer to back the deal rather than trash it in the hope of no deal.
    The only amendment that could achieve that is "That this house believes this deal, even if rejected that this bill passes into law on 29th March 2018" (sorry I'm not completely au fait with the flowery language)
    Surely even that wouldn't suffice since all amendments fail if the bill fails. In order for any amendments to become law, the bill they're amending must become law.
    If a wrecking amendment is passed saying (e.g.) “this deal may not be accepted, and the government is instructed to return for further negotiations; but in the event of no deal being reached by 31 Jan the government must seek to revoke A50” that would work - the government would have to whip to vote the bill down at that stage, but logically those who voted for the amendment would then vote the amended bill into law.

    Not sure whether the speaker would allow the amendment though.
    I don't think that will work to repeal The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017.
    Does it need to repeal that act? It could amend it if needed but I had assumed that a revocation would be a new act or executive action. Probably the latter.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,881

    Theo said:

    Nicky Morgan?

    Are there any leavers enthusiastic about this deal? The fact so many remainers are says a lot about how much this is a betrayal. Remainers cheering on this deal says about as much as if McDonnell was cheering on a Tory budget.
    I am a Leaver and very enthusiastic about this deal. Controlled immigration, membership fees ended, British courts sovereign, the ability to have global trade in services while maintaining continental supply chains in goods. It's great. But then I make decisions based on what I am for rather than this modern attitude of just trying to oppose people I dislike.
    It's a fantasy. If you want frictionless trade you have to maintain free movement and this deal commits to that in writing.
    Rubbish. We had FOM with Ireland for years and years but trade wasn’t “frictionless” as it is between two English counties, nor is it now between us and the 27. We have different currencies and tax rates for starters. The deal in no way commits to FOM as now. There may be haggling, sure as part of the future trade deal but FOM wouldn’t be as now, despite your fervent desire.
  • malcolmg said:

    But Rory is on front bench, two or three away from May.
    the wee sook is desperate, what a jessy boy.
    But he's a good old borders boy Malc!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 1,917
    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    At the airport at passport control there are two queues, one for EU/British passports and the other for Non EU.
    Different queues, not jumping the queue.

    Also not possible to jump a queue that doesn't exist.
    From a non-EU visitor perspective at that airport, those EU visitors are being given preferential treatment.
    Due to FOM within the EU but noone is jumping any queues at present.
    Legally, but we are talking about perception. and that's what May probably meant by her original comment. Anway, she's now apologised as it's easier to do that than argue the case.
    It just cracks me up the way people fake horror at such an innocuous statement.
    Sadly social media means our pathetic modern-day MPs react to such comments in order to value-signal their way through the actual issues.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,426
    May the Suppository: her deal means we leave the EU, but eases us out with minimum pain.

    I thank you.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 1,955
    Xenon said:

    currystar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    What a load of nonsense, EU people do queue jump, perfectly legally, but they do that. Why are we so scared of speaking the truth.
    Remainers have been in a state of perpetual outrage since the leave vote.
    Whilst leavers have been just one long joyous ray of sunshine.
This discussion has been closed.