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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed by MPs this years at 14%

Unlike one or two of her predecessors I am not aware that Theresa May follows political betting and the way the odds are changing. If she had have done she would have noticed about 6pm this evening the chances of her getting the brexit vote agreed before the end of the year was down to 3.3%.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First
  • I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    Stick a GE clause in the deal and get it through on Labour votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    edited November 2018
    Obligatory 'as high a chance as that?' comment. 3% would be about 3 times too great a chance.

    It wasn't absurd to think it might get passed initially, even with not inconsiderable opposition first up. But even knowing people don't like compromises, that many are using it as an opportunity to remain and for party advantage, the level of momentum against it has been impressive.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
  • ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Brexit caused PB to crash...
  • eekeek Posts: 3,081
    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    Pulpstar said:

    Stick a GE clause in the deal and get it through on Labour votes.

    Though may lose a few more Tory ones!
  • ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Well relative safety.

    As for Vanilla, blame tech support.

  • I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    edited November 2018
    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684
    3% is not really too high. Vote this down and I will call a 2nd referendum AND a GE on the same day would concentrate many minds. However, how she follows through on that threat is another question.
    Also. Ignore vox pops. They are the worst kind of media manipulation. How many interviews to get those opinions? How were the people selected? By random sample?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    No there isn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
  • A friend of mine who is a Tory activist and Leaver said he finally understood why I thought some Tory leavers are a bunch of absolute bellends.

    He's given me an idea for Sunday's thread.

    Précis - The ERG are like that horse the Greeks sent to Troy.
  • An investigation is being launched by the Leinster Senior League after an amateur Dublin club falsely reported the death of one of its players.

    Ballybrack FC informed the league that Spanish native Fernando Nuno La-Fuente had died in a traffic accident.

    Their game against Arklow Town on Saturday was postponed while a minute's silence was held before other fixtures.

    However, it was confirmed on Tuesday that the player was alive and back in Spain.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46363865
  • Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684
    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
    Indeed. And if that is her plan, why is she off to Argentina for days in this 2 week window? Believe me, none of her oh-so-loyal Cabinet will be going out to bat for her while she is gone.
  • One in seven sounds on the high side to me. It needs far too many MPs who have publicly declared their position to eat crow. That would require something spectacular.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    An investigation is being launched by the Leinster Senior League after an amateur Dublin club falsely reported the death of one of its players.

    Ballybrack FC informed the league that Spanish native Fernando Nuno La-Fuente had died in a traffic accident.

    Their game against Arklow Town on Saturday was postponed while a minute's silence was held before other fixtures.

    However, it was confirmed on Tuesday that the player was alive and back in Spain.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46363865

    The most unconvincing sporting fraud since Adrian Shankar?

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/517588.html
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,266
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the UK and its parliament are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
  • eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    It is not clear. The Clerk of the Commons appears to think not.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/31/commons-rules-allow-theresa-may-ignore-mps-vote-alternative-brexit

    Whereas the Institute for Government is rather less equivocal

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit

    Clear as mud I would suggest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the UK and its parliament are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    That is also true.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly.
    Indeed. And if that is her plan, why is she off to Argentina for days in this 2 week window? Believe me, none of her oh-so-loyal Cabinet will be going out to bat for her while she is gone.
    I honestly don't think she has a plan to get it through, the path to that has closed since far too many people have publicly come out against it to change their minds, and if there were waverers they've jumped on board the rejection train rather than back a doomed deal. So I really do think she is just going through the motions. With a reasonable amount of energy, it has to be said, she has put in some long, thankless effort in recent weeks when she could have half arsed it a lot more like her entire Cabinet, but it is just as pointless.

    Is there a market on if she will still be an MP next year? I think the chances of her going as PM this year are very high, but I don't think she'd quit as an MP right away, she'd want to stick around to see what PM Raab or Boris come up with.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098

    One in seven sounds on the high side to me. It needs far too many MPs who have publicly declared their position to eat crow. That would require something spectacular.

    I reckon there is value in the Deal passing. Tory MPs are are chicken.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
    I gave up believing anything in the Telegraph years ago. Apart from the Matt cartoon, of course.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,397

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
    No need to guess. It's Owen Paterson.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,122

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    A friend of mine who is a Tory activist and Leaver said he finally understood why I thought some Tory leavers are a bunch of absolute bellends.

    He's given me an idea for Sunday's thread.

    Précis - The ERG are like that horse the Greeks sent to Troy.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,122

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
  • ydoethur said:

    An investigation is being launched by the Leinster Senior League after an amateur Dublin club falsely reported the death of one of its players.

    Ballybrack FC informed the league that Spanish native Fernando Nuno La-Fuente had died in a traffic accident.

    Their game against Arklow Town on Saturday was postponed while a minute's silence was held before other fixtures.

    However, it was confirmed on Tuesday that the player was alive and back in Spain.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46363865

    The most unconvincing sporting fraud since Adrian Shankar?

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/517588.html
    Sounds more like the most unconvincing sporting fraud since the incident with the Dreamy Sleepy Nightie Snoozy Snooze just before the All-Priests five-a-side Over-75s Indoor Challenge Football Match.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    A friend of mine who is a Tory activist and Leaver said he finally understood why I thought some Tory leavers are a bunch of absolute bellends.

    He's given me an idea for Sunday's thread.

    Précis - The ERG are like that horse the Greeks sent to Troy.

    Good Troy. I laughed myself horse at the rabbit gag...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    I'm sure he did. It wasn't of the "sign this and I'll fill the rest in later" kind, was it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    ydoethur said:

    An investigation is being launched by the Leinster Senior League after an amateur Dublin club falsely reported the death of one of its players.

    Ballybrack FC informed the league that Spanish native Fernando Nuno La-Fuente had died in a traffic accident.

    Their game against Arklow Town on Saturday was postponed while a minute's silence was held before other fixtures.

    However, it was confirmed on Tuesday that the player was alive and back in Spain.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46363865

    The most unconvincing sporting fraud since Adrian Shankar?

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/517588.html
    Sounds more like the most unconvincing sporting fraud since the incident with the Dreamy Sleepy Nightie Snoozy Snooze just before the All-Priests five-a-side Over-75s Indoor Challenge Football Match.
    You what?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993

    One in seven sounds on the high side to me. It needs far too many MPs who have publicly declared their position to eat crow. That would require something spectacular.

    There will be lashings of crow at the banquets in due course.
  • Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
    Would love to see the details of that trade deal. "A beautiful deal, such a beautiful deal, the greatest deal ever made, everybody would LOVE this deal, only a genius would be able to put together such an amazing deal".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
    Or Labour and Tory rebels are right and the EU will agree substantive changes. We can only hope that is true, though I don;t see it myself.

    I do actually kind of accept the reported comment that May might try to get the opportunity for a second MP vote if it is rejected by less than 100, since as preposterous as I find the idea of abstaining on this matter if there were enough discipline to hold off the pressures of GE and referendum I could at least conceive of enough MPs abstaining to avoid accidental no deal to at least make it closer.

    But a loss well over a hundred as we are looking at? It won't even make a referendum as has also been floated. And she won't get the chance to ask them again. It's a stretch to think the government would retain the unity to offer it again if it loses at all, or by 50 or so, but having been so thumped? Don't make me laugh.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,201

    ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Well relative safety.

    As for Vanilla, blame tech support.

    He’s on the beach
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,397
    edited November 2018

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
    Well quite. It's all very well talking about an "improved" offer, but the fact is that nobody can even articulate what such an improved offer would consist of. Because the declared opposition to the deal is coming from several different directions and for many different motivations. Backstop, 'vasselage', "not as good as remain", "worst of all worlds", "anything the EU is prepared to offer must screw the UK by default", wanting a general election....

    So why would the EU even bother to try reopening negotiation?

    The only hope really is that they don't take the existing deal off the table until Parliament comes to its senses.
  • One in seven sounds on the high side to me. It needs far too many MPs who have publicly declared their position to eat crow. That would require something spectacular.

    There is also a practical difficulty - are there enough crows in the vicinity of Westminster to feed 60% of the Conservative MPs not on the Government payroll?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
    Would love to see the details of that trade deal. "A beautiful deal, such a beautiful deal, the greatest deal ever made, everybody would LOVE this deal, only a genius would be able to put together such an amazing deal".
    Chequers in exchange for a condo in Palm Beach.
  • I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
    One tweak could overturn a 3 figure margin. If the Irish backstop issue is addressed that could overturn a 3 figure margin. Bear in mind that for every Nay turned into an Aye it is a net change of 2, so you're looking at 50 Nays turning into Ayes.

    If a deal is reached that is to the satisfaction of the DUP (which should have been a prerequisite from the beginning) then isn't that 10 extra votes immediately? Thus a net change of 20.

    How many Tory MPs who vote Nay will vote Aye if the backstop is fixed? 40? 50? 60? That's another 80-120 swing.

    The backstop is the killer. The EU thought the UK would concede. I thought to be honest that Parliament would reluctantly back any deal May reached. We were wrong. Its time for a change and once that change goes through (as much as it might disappoint Varadkar, an immediate hard border and closure of the land bridge to 80% of his exports would disappoint more) the deal becomes acceptable.
  • The year after Mark Cavendish became World Champion he knew he had zero chance of retaining his title due to the steep climb to the finish on that year's course. So what did he do? He rode on the front of the peleton in a last hurrah in the rainbow jersey until it was time to abandon the race.

    Tezzie is currently doing the political equivalent of Cav's ride that day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Well relative safety.

    As for Vanilla, blame tech support.

    He’s on the beach
    Do you mean in a holiday sense or a naval sense?
  • Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,201
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    Not really. Reminds me of why you go for good lawyers or bankers vs bad ones.

    Bad ones will negotiate tightly within given parameters and try to optimise the outcome

    Good advisers will guide the client to the right outcome

    The EU team has done a good job of squeezing as hard as possible. They’ve over extended themselves and need to be walked back. Otherwise they will lose the deal because they don’t see the bigger strategic picture

    Problem is that Macron is the only person who can walk them back right now and he believes May will fold
  • Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
    Would love to see the details of that trade deal. "A beautiful deal, such a beautiful deal, the greatest deal ever made, everybody would LOVE this deal, only a genius would be able to put together such an amazing deal".
    Chequers in exchange for a condo in Palm Beach.
    Weren't we after a super casino a few years back? Turn Weston-super-Mare into Atlantic City.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.

    You can't guarantee every Tory will fall in line just because Arlene Foster is happy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
    One tweak could overturn a 3 figure margin. If the Irish backstop issue is addressed that could overturn a 3 figure margin. Bear in mind that for every Nay turned into an Aye it is a net change of 2, so you're looking at 50 Nays turning into Ayes.

    If a deal is reached that is to the satisfaction of the DUP (which should have been a prerequisite from the beginning) then isn't that 10 extra votes immediately? Thus a net change of 20.

    How many Tory MPs who vote Nay will vote Aye if the backstop is fixed? 40? 50? 60? That's another 80-120 swing.

    The backstop is the killer. The EU thought the UK would concede. I thought to be honest that Parliament would reluctantly back any deal May reached. We were wrong. Its time for a change and once that change goes through (as much as it might disappoint Varadkar, an immediate hard border and closure of the land bridge to 80% of his exports would disappoint more) the deal becomes acceptable.
    Whose idea was this damn fool backstop?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    alex. said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
    Well quite. It's all very well talking about an "improved" offer, but the fact is that nobody can even articulate what such an improved offer would consist of. Because the declared opposition to the deal is coming from several different directions and for many different motivations. Backstop, 'vasselage', "not as good as remain", "worst of all worlds", "anything the EU is prepared to offer must screw the UK by default", wanting a general election....

    So why would the EU even bother to try reopening negotiation?
    That is the difficulty. If they could only achieve one thing, the removal of the backstop, and nothing else, I could believe the newdealers, or enough of them, might accept that.

    Trouble is they don't seem to want to offer anything more to the EU for that other than being serious about no deal this time. Which is hard to do when the Commons as a whole is not serious about no deal and will fight tooth and nail to prevent it, which makes negotiation harder. Unless the EU really have been bluffing this whole time, we'd need to offer them something.

    At least Labour's position, while similar, has them conceding something more to the EU in the shape of an even closer relationship.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    kle4 said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Britain will be Europe's Canada to the EU's USA next March.

    The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.

    Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.

    Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
    If the deal goes down by a 3 figure majority its not likely that "a few tweaks" will be enough to get it through. And nor would the EU believe that May, or any new PM, could command the backing of the Commons for such "tweaks." If this deal goes down we will either leave with no deal or remain.
    Or Labour and Tory rebels are right and the EU will agree substantive changes. We can only hope that is true, though I don;t see it myself.

    I do actually kind of accept the reported comment that May might try to get the opportunity for a second MP vote if it is rejected by less than 100, since as preposterous as I find the idea of abstaining on this matter if there were enough discipline to hold off the pressures of GE and referendum I could at least conceive of enough MPs abstaining to avoid accidental no deal to at least make it closer.

    But a loss well over a hundred as we are looking at? It won't even make a referendum as has also been floated. And she won't get the chance to ask them again. It's a stretch to think the government would retain the unity to offer it again if it loses at all, or by 50 or so, but having been so thumped? Don't make me laugh.
    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    Headlines like that are a game of "guess the idiot".
    Would love to see the details of that trade deal. "A beautiful deal, such a beautiful deal, the greatest deal ever made, everybody would LOVE this deal, only a genius would be able to put together such an amazing deal".
    Chequers in exchange for a condo in Palm Beach.
    Weren't we after a super casino a few years back? Turn Weston-super-Mare into Atlantic City.
    "Beautiful mud, such beautiful mud. They've got mud like you wouldn't believe."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    An investigation is being launched by the Leinster Senior League after an amateur Dublin club falsely reported the death of one of its players.

    Ballybrack FC informed the league that Spanish native Fernando Nuno La-Fuente had died in a traffic accident.

    Their game against Arklow Town on Saturday was postponed while a minute's silence was held before other fixtures.

    However, it was confirmed on Tuesday that the player was alive and back in Spain.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46363865

    The most unconvincing sporting fraud since Adrian Shankar?

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/517588.html
    Sounds more like the most unconvincing sporting fraud since the incident with the Dreamy Sleepy Nightie Snoozy Snooze just before the All-Priests five-a-side Over-75s Indoor Challenge Football Match.
    You what?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_from_Victory

    A classic episode, and why Father Ted has to kick Bishop Brennan up the arse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    Not really. Reminds me of why you go for good lawyers or bankers vs bad ones.

    Bad ones will negotiate tightly within given parameters and try to optimise the outcome

    Good advisers will guide the client to the right outcome

    The EU team has done a good job of squeezing as hard as possible. They’ve over extended themselves and need to be walked back. Otherwise they will lose the deal because they don’t see the bigger strategic picture

    Problem is that Macron is the only person who can walk them back right now and he believes May will fold
    The EU's biggest flaw in this has been assuming May could fold, or pass a fold. And no, that doesn't mean they needed to do us favours, but they say they want a deal and May clearly very much wanted one too, but what the EU have pushed has pushed the UK too far.

    The most positive outcome for the EU now is we remain after all, but that's hardly one without strings attached to it, since there will be a sizable, very bitter contingent left here and I very much doubt the number of arch euro federalists is going to explode in this country.
  • ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the UK and its parliament are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    Actually Parliament is the one shining light in this whole mess. The government through weakness and general incompetence has signed whatever madness the EU thrust upon it and despite the warnings and the risks Parliament has reacted with appropriate horror and said "no this is not acceptable". Well done Parliament. The EU will be disappointed to have to change the deal, Varadkar will be disappointed to lose his backstop and have to go back to co-operating on finding an amicable solution like his predecessor had started work on before he took over ... oh well. Not our problem.
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018

    Donald Trump offered Theresa May trade deal four months ago, but she rejected him, former minister claims

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/

    That must have been in July, around the time that Donald Trump advised Theresa May that Britain shouldn't negotiate with EU27 at all, and that the prime minister should "sue the EU".

    Trump seems to have no comprehension of the notion of "jurisdiction".

    "Hey, sue those guys! You and me can do a great deal!"

    Here is the opinion of him held by the guy who wrote The Art of the Deal for him, Tony Schwartz.

    It's difficult not to feel sorry for everyone who has to work with Trump in whatever role.

    I read somewhere that when Trump met Angela Merkel, she and her team had to explain to him about 10 times that Germany cannot sign a trade agreement with the US because Germany is a member of the European Union, which is a trading bloc. And still, on parting, the idiot told Merkel "We're gonna sign a great trade deal, our country and your country, yeah?"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,201
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Well relative safety.

    As for Vanilla, blame tech support.

    He’s on the beach
    Do you mean in a holiday sense or a naval sense?
    Life is good for PB’s tech support team
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    Sounds like the ManU game is a complete stinker of a 0-0.....
  • ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the UK and its parliament are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    Actually Parliament is the one shining light in this whole mess. The government through weakness and general incompetence has signed whatever madness the EU thrust upon it and despite the warnings and the risks Parliament has reacted with appropriate horror and said "no this is not acceptable". Well done Parliament. The EU will be disappointed to have to change the deal, Varadkar will be disappointed to lose his backstop and have to go back to co-operating on finding an amicable solution like his predecessor had started work on before he took over ... oh well. Not our problem.
    Indeed, as a Leaver, I am grateful to G Miller for saving us from the worst of all worlds.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,355
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
    That is the funniest cartoon I've seen for a long time. Matt has excelled himself.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584



    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.

    I don't think she will get the chance either since my belief is the last few letters needed were waiting for her deal to fail first (not even needing it to be a huge loss), and then if she does not go willingly she will be made to go. Not even all her Cabinet agree with her position, so she won't win a vote of no confidence even though she will get a majority of Tory MPs to vote for her deal.

    As for the hypothetical second vote, I think the theory is it could happen pretty quickly, before Xmas, as it would be an unchanged version so what's preventing them getting in another vote before they recess?

    I hope they don't bother though. We need it to go at least once, for the public record, but if it loses by so much don't inflict the nonsense of another one on us. I regard many of the other options as wildly optimistic and unrealistic, but parliament will have indicated they want that to be tried (in the sense they want to try something other than this deal at least).
  • Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.

    You can't guarantee every Tory will fall in line just because Arlene Foster is happy.
    Enough will. This solution is unlikely as it stands.

    But this is the only solution that is viable. No deal isn't viable, this deal isn't viable, remain isn't viable.

    As Sherlock Holmes said Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    This is improbable but the only solution that is possible. The backstop has to go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    Well of course it is a rehash. Could still be true of course, project fears can still be broadly true, though they are not always so. It's just part of the process, since not many will believe it.

    Though people crying about the percentage loss vs staying in the EU, thereby believing such forecasts, should have to very carefully consider what they want if they are still so blase about risking no deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 43,382
    AnneJGP said:

    That is the funniest cartoon I've seen for a long time. Matt has excelled himself.

    Good evening, everyone.

    That's a few days old. This is today

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    kle4 said:



    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.

    I don't think she will get the chance either since my belief is the last few letters needed were waiting for her deal to fail first (not even needing it to be a huge loss), and then if she does not go willingly she will be made to go. Not even all her Cabinet agree with her position, so she won't win a vote of no confidence even though she will get a majority of Tory MPs to vote for her deal.

    As for the hypothetical second vote, I think the theory is it could happen pretty quickly, before Xmas, as it would be an unchanged version so what's preventing them getting in another vote before they recess?

    I hope they don't bother though. We need it to go at least once, for the public record, but if it loses by so much don't inflict the nonsense of another one on us. I regard many of the other options as wildly optimistic and unrealistic, but parliament will have indicated they want that to be tried (in the sense they want to try something other than this deal at least).
    And that try will have to be undertaken by someone other than May. She has spent two and a half years wedded to this approach. No-one believes she would even try something new.
  • Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
    Isn't there a meaningful vote early next month which could be amended to say revoke an Article...
    If nothing else, this whole process has shown the EU and its laws are a ramshackle disaster unfit for a parish council and its leadership wouldn't measure up to a scout troop.
    Not really. Reminds me of why you go for good lawyers or bankers vs bad ones.

    Bad ones will negotiate tightly within given parameters and try to optimise the outcome

    Good advisers will guide the client to the right outcome

    The EU team has done a good job of squeezing as hard as possible. They’ve over extended themselves and need to be walked back. Otherwise they will lose the deal because they don’t see the bigger strategic picture

    Problem is that Macron is the only person who can walk them back right now and he believes May will fold
    He was right. May did fold. Thus their actions to date are only logical to extract as much as they could.

    He didn't count on Parliament. Who honestly thought three months ago we'd see a position where the PM reached a deal and we'd see Parliament reject it - in December - by potentially a three figure margin? I don't think anyone saw that coming as the most likely outcome.

    Thus the fact have changed so they need to go back and have a rethink.
  • Scott_P said:

    AnneJGP said:

    That is the funniest cartoon I've seen for a long time. Matt has excelled himself.

    Good evening, everyone.

    That's a few days old. This is today

    Genuinely laughed out loud at that one! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,993
    Goal for Sideshow Bob
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    Scott_P said:

    AnneJGP said:

    That is the funniest cartoon I've seen for a long time. Matt has excelled himself.

    Good evening, everyone.

    That's a few days old. This is today

    Matt: National Treasure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    kle4 said:



    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.

    I don't think she will get the chance either since my belief is the last few letters needed were waiting for her deal to fail first (not even needing it to be a huge loss), and then if she does not go willingly she will be made to go. Not even all her Cabinet agree with her position, so she won't win a vote of no confidence even though she will get a majority of Tory MPs to vote for her deal.

    As for the hypothetical second vote, I think the theory is it could happen pretty quickly, before Xmas, as it would be an unchanged version so what's preventing them getting in another vote before they recess?

    I hope they don't bother though. We need it to go at least once, for the public record, but if it loses by so much don't inflict the nonsense of another one on us. I regard many of the other options as wildly optimistic and unrealistic, but parliament will have indicated they want that to be tried (in the sense they want to try something other than this deal at least).
    And that try will have to be undertaken by someone other than May. She has spent two and a half years wedded to this approach. No-one believes she would even try something new.
    Of course. I don't think even she believes otherwise. If it was relatively close maybe, maybe she could have tried a second referendum option (though I think that would only have even been tried if she had already fought and won a vote of no confidence and was theoretically safe in position), but not now. Another should have taken over when Chequers was rejected in the first place.
  • ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Well relative safety.

    As for Vanilla, blame tech support.

    He’s on the beach
    Do you mean in a holiday sense or a naval sense?
    Well hopefully not in the Nevile Shute sense.
  • kle4 said:

    Or Labour and Tory rebels are right and the EU will agree substantive changes. We can only hope that is true, though I don;t see it myself.

    I do actually kind of accept the reported comment that May might try to get the opportunity for a second MP vote if it is rejected by less than 100, since as preposterous as I find the idea of abstaining on this matter if there were enough discipline to hold off the pressures of GE and referendum I could at least conceive of enough MPs abstaining to avoid accidental no deal to at least make it closer.

    But a loss well over a hundred as we are looking at? It won't even make a referendum as has also been floated. And she won't get the chance to ask them again. It's a stretch to think the government would retain the unity to offer it again if it loses at all, or by 50 or so, but having been so thumped? Don't make me laugh.

    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.
    If she has any self-respect at all if there's a three figure rejection of her deal it won't take any letters. 20-30 letters she can fight on, 100+ letters and she resigns within hours like Cameron did after the vote came in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.

    Canada's next to Donald Trump. It isn't 'safe.'

    What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
    Well relative safety.

    As for Vanilla, blame tech support.

    He’s on the beach
    Do you mean in a holiday sense or a naval sense?
    Well hopefully not in the Nevile Shute sense.
    But Brexit hasn't happened yet...
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    kle4 said:



    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.

    I don't think she will get the chance either since my belief is the last few letters needed were waiting for her deal to fail first (not even needing it to be a huge loss), and then if she does not go willingly she will be made to go. Not even all her Cabinet agree with her position, so she won't win a vote of no confidence even though she will get a majority of Tory MPs to vote for her deal.

    As for the hypothetical second vote, I think the theory is it could happen pretty quickly, before Xmas, as it would be an unchanged version so what's preventing them getting in another vote before they recess?

    I hope they don't bother though. We need it to go at least once, for the public record, but if it loses by so much don't inflict the nonsense of another one on us. I regard many of the other options as wildly optimistic and unrealistic, but parliament will have indicated they want that to be tried (in the sense they want to try something other than this deal at least).
    The opposition parties and rebel Tories [*] should push Theresa May at the next PMQs for an assurance that if she loses the first vote she won't re-table the same motion. To re-table would not only be to treat MPs who vote against her as if they are complete idiots incapable of understanding the consequences of their actions until they find the petrol pumps have run dry and the lights have gone out; it would also be to waste time in a period of national crisis, which is both contemptuous and contemptible.

    I agree, @kle4, about the letters. Perhaps she'll even receive the good news in between debating with Jeremy Corbyn and the Commons vote?

    By the way, will the TV debate happen after the Commons debate has started? I thought five days of debate had been allowed in the Commons, and the BBC suggests that the TV event will happen " a few" days before the vote. A "few" is less than five, right?

    (*) Bonus for 10: what does the phrase "rebel Tory" have in common with "River Avon"?
  • dixiedean said:

    3% is not really too high. Vote this down and I will call a 2nd referendum AND a GE on the same day would concentrate many minds. However, how she follows through on that threat is another question.
    Also. Ignore vox pops. They are the worst kind of media manipulation. How many interviews to get those opinions? How were the people selected? By random sample?

    To be fair it was quite at random, lots of smiles and shaking of her hand, support and more than a little anger at the mps. The report in the Guardian very much the same.

    I do not think there is a desire by the public to replace her like there is on this forum
  • dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
    Indeed. And if that is her plan, why is she off to Argentina for days in this 2 week window? Believe me, none of her oh-so-loyal Cabinet will be going out to bat for her while she is gone.
    She has to attend the G20 - This is getting silly
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,098
    Notch said:

    kle4 said:



    I'm not sure that second vote gets off the ground. Presumably it wouldn't happen until the New Year? May won't go and ask the EU for changes. The EU won't offer changes. Nothing changes apart from we are weeks nearer to No Deal taking effect by default.

    But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.

    I don't think she will get the chance either since my belief is the last few letters needed were waiting for her deal to fail first (not even needing it to be a huge loss), and then if she does not go willingly she will be made to go. Not even all her Cabinet agree with her position, so she won't win a vote of no confidence even though she will get a majority of Tory MPs to vote for her deal.

    As for the hypothetical second vote, I think the theory is it could happen pretty quickly, before Xmas, as it would be an unchanged version so what's preventing them getting in another vote before they recess?

    I hope they don't bother though. We need it to go at least once, for the public record, but if it loses by so much don't inflict the nonsense of another one on us. I regard many of the other options as wildly optimistic and unrealistic, but parliament will have indicated they want that to be tried (in the sense they want to try something other than this deal at least).
    The opposition parties and rebel Tories [*] should push Theresa May at the next PMQs for an assurance that if she loses the first vote she won't re-table the same motion. To re-table would not only be to treat MPs who vote against her as if they are complete idiots incapable of understanding the consequences of their actions until they find the petrol pumps have run dry and the lights have gone out; it would also be to waste time in a period of national crisis, which is both contemptuous and contemptible.

    I agree, @kle4, about the letters. Perhaps she'll even receive the good news in between debating with Jeremy Corbyn and the Commons vote?

    By the way, will the TV debate happen after the Commons debate has started? I thought five days of debate had been allowed in the Commons, and the BBC suggests that the TV event will happen " a few" days before the vote. A "few" is less than five, right?

    (*) Bonus for 10: what does the phrase "rebel Tory" have in common with "River Avon"?
    Rebel and Tory are synonyms, as are River and avon.

    Lake Rotorua too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584
    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 18,294
    edited November 2018

    dixiedean said:

    3% is not really too high. Vote this down and I will call a 2nd referendum AND a GE on the same day would concentrate many minds. However, how she follows through on that threat is another question.
    Also. Ignore vox pops. They are the worst kind of media manipulation. How many interviews to get those opinions? How were the people selected? By random sample?

    To be fair it was quite at random, lots of smiles and shaking of her hand, support and more than a little anger at the mps. The report in the Guardian very much the same.

    I do not think there is a desire by the public to replace her like there is on this forum
    Indeed the public are less invested with politics than we are.

    However if (and it's still an it) the deal is rejected by anything like a three figure majority she needs to go. No ifs, no buts. The PM has to be someone who commands the confidence of the House and if the PM can't carry her signature policy on the most critical issue facing the country then a new leader is needed. That logic applied to Chamberlain even when he won his vote, it certainly applies here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,593

    Scott_P said:

    AnneJGP said:

    That is the funniest cartoon I've seen for a long time. Matt has excelled himself.

    Good evening, everyone.

    That's a few days old. This is today

    Matt: National Treasure.
    This one is very good too:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,397
    What people ignore about the backstop (as formulated) is that it protects the U.K. as much as Ireland/the EU. Because without it we are simply creating a cliff edge in two years and all the current arguments about who has the most to lose from no deal just occur all over again and infect/poison the trade negotiations. The backstop actual gives us the opportunity to play hardball in trade negotiations, but allow both sides to genuinely pursue mutually beneficial outcomes.

    No backstop, and we’re here all over again in 18 months, with no trade deals with the rest of the world, and the existing access to our largest market once again in jeopardy against the clock.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705
    kle4 said:

    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
    I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?

    It's going to be the top end of the range.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tacti
    Indeed. And if that is her plan, why is she off to Argentina for days in this 2 week window? Believe me, none of her oh-so-loyal Cabinet will be going out to bat for her while she is gone.
    She has to attend the G20 - This is getting silly
    While she is still PM she has to perform the duties of the role, but let's be honest, at this point she is just a seat warmer for someone else. I take no pleasure in that, I think this deal should be accepted rather than take a whole bunch more risks on options ranging from the harder-than-people-will-admit to the downright implausible, but it isn't happening and May cannot make it happen. She shouldn't go until her deal is officially done, but her time as PM is over even though she still carries the title for now.
  • Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.

    You can't guarantee every Tory will fall in line just because Arlene Foster is happy.
    Enough will. This solution is unlikely as it stands.

    But this is the only solution that is viable. No deal isn't viable, this deal isn't viable, remain isn't viable.

    As Sherlock Holmes said Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    This is improbable but the only solution that is possible. The backstop has to go.
    Sadly it wont go - remain it is
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,846

    kle4 said:

    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
    I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?

    It's going to be the top end of the range.
    She has offered nothing to Labour MPs. Nothing. It’s weird.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,885

    kle4 said:

    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
    I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?

    It's going to be the top end of the range.
    Even Flint seems to be wavering a bit from her previous strong support.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,684

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.
    Well exactly. I detect plenty of grudging acknowledgement it's a tough job (albeit one she asked for) and in theory people want MPs to get on with it and know things will not be perfect...but there seems no sign of actual support for a deal which might, hypothetically, pressure MPs.

    I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
    Indeed. And if that is her plan, why is she off to Argentina for days in this 2 week window? Believe me, none of her oh-so-loyal Cabinet will be going out to bat for her while she is gone.
    She has to attend the G20 - This is getting silly
    In fairness, my criticism was not of her. Replacing her would solve nothing, and potentially open up new problems of their own. But, if her plan is to appeal over the heads of MPs, then why are none of her Cabinet out there? I can think of only Rudd.
    It will be open season while she is gone.
  • Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.

    You can't guarantee every Tory will fall in line just because Arlene Foster is happy.
    Enough will. This solution is unlikely as it stands.

    But this is the only solution that is viable. No deal isn't viable, this deal isn't viable, remain isn't viable.

    As Sherlock Holmes said Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    This is improbable but the only solution that is possible. The backstop has to go.
    Sadly it wont go - remain it is
    It will go, it has to go. Remain isn't an option. They'll replace it with some face-saving alternative, but it has to go in order to get a deal through and they want a deal. If they thought we would fold on this [which they did think] it wouldn't go, but since Parliament won't fold they have to - and they get the other 99% they've screwed out of us through May's failure of a negotiation.
  • Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
    I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?

    It's going to be the top end of the range.
    She has offered nothing to Labour MPs. Nothing. It’s weird.
    One can only conclude that she’s not trying. In which case, what does she plan next?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 40,584

    Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.

    You can't guarantee every Tory will fall in line just because Arlene Foster is happy.
    Enough will. This solution is unlikely as it stands.

    But this is the only solution that is viable. No deal isn't viable, this deal isn't viable, remain isn't viable.

    As Sherlock Holmes said Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    This is improbable but the only solution that is possible. The backstop has to go.
    Sadly it wont go - remain it is
    Probably. This insistence that we can make the backstop disappear as an issue if only this time we really say we mean it, as if May did not do that (because she just loved the opportunity to destroy relations with the DUP and many of her own backbenchers?), as if that is entirely in our power and the EU will totally back down because someone serious is saying it, is being made to seem easy, even though Philip at least acknowledges it is improbable.

    I hope they can get rid of it, I would like there to be a deal, but if the rebels are wrong or unsuccessful they will be bringing about remain. I hope not a single one dares complain about that when it happens, particularly when several admit remaining is preferable to some options.

    Good night all.
  • kle4 said:

    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
    George Osborne's words, allegedly, to Cameron, when the Referendum was first mooted, were 'you are crazy'.

    These will go down in every history book.

    What a f***ing awful mess...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,698
    edited November 2018
    Never mind No 10 that should be alarming for anyone with a job, which will be quickly apparent upon the first market crash after the rejection of the first vote
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,705

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
    I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?

    It's going to be the top end of the range.
    She has offered nothing to Labour MPs. Nothing. It’s weird.
    One can only conclude that she’s not trying. In which case, what does she plan next?
    Retirement.
This discussion has been closed.