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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018
    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I don't buy it. What does the Cabinet have to gain from throwing May a lifeline?

    Her humiliation is now a fixed point in the political timeline. It has to happen before anything else can.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I can understand why determined non-political europhiles don't understand this, but I can't understand why ex-Remain politicians don't get it. I mean, they've all won elections....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    You are just trying to rationalise your position in 2016. Remain has every chance of winning by at least 60:40.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    Iceland the country or Iceland the company?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    You are just trying to rationalise your position in 2016. Remain has every chance of winning by at least 60:40.
    Unspoofable.

    Almost every post you've made since Remain losing suggests that you've never even come to terms with the referendum campaign having finished.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    Iceland the country or Iceland the company?
    The country... Do keep up! :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    The chairman of EFTA has been positive since before the referendum on the idea.

    It seems the only real hurdle is convincing them that we're in EFTA for the long haul, not just some stepping stone to some Brexiteer lala land.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    I agree. Cameron is ultimately to blame for the mess for calling a referendum in the first place, and running such a negative campaign. I kept waiting for the positive PPB which would have pictures of Rome, Paris, Berlin, etc, but it never appeared.
    Don't forget that Mr Cameron assured us all that the country would do well outside of the EU. I know that was while he was pretending to be EU-sceptic, but he did do it.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    As I said downthread. I absolutely would. Should the polling support it. Remainers are no more a monolith than Leavers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    Kerry Katona?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    rcs1000 said:

    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.

    Don't worry; it's not like American politics. The bitterest fight is still within the same political family. :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018
    For gods sake what would be the point of avoiding it? Stand up and be counted then react, don't just abandon it and let everybody off the hook. Avoiding it doesn't make the job any easier, the vote makes it easier in fact. A commons rejection has more chance of persuading the EU to renegotiate than a theoretical commons rejection, however obvious it would indeed be rejected.

    What a bunch of morons.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    Kerry Katona?
    No... But they did have Stormy Daniels on talking about Donald's penis the other week so you wouldn't put it past them.... :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I have a feeling these may be internal Tory estimates, hence the too-aggressive Labour numbers.

    Of the ten or so Labour MPs that were originally mooted as possibles, they've all flipped to Hard No.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.

    I was on the fence on Brexit and I find the way the two sides hate each other baffling and regrettable.
  • rcs1000 said:

    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.

    And that is before a second referendum campaign
  • GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    The chairman of EFTA has been positive since before the referendum on the idea.

    It seems the only real hurdle is convincing them that we're in EFTA for the long haul, not just some stepping stone to some Brexiteer lala land.
    The real hurdle is that the UK would have to comply with freedom of movement for people from the EU and EFTA.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Pulpstar said:
    Where are the Tory 210 coming from? If May is on the way out, some might think their interests are best served in voting their conscience instead of their soon-to-be gone position....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    kle4 said:

    For gods sake what would be the point of avoiding it? Stand up and be counted then react, don't just abandon it and let everybody off the hook.

    What a bunch of morons.
    From reading the runes, I'm sensing more than 100 Tory MPs are moving against the deal. I think there is every chance that the 48 letters are actually received this week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited November 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I'm hoping I can say I'm the only pber that can see the constituencies of both sane Labour MPs on a clear day from my house.
  • JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    Oh the old "the Tories will die out" argument......I've been hearing it for 40 years.....those Tories must be well over 100 by now.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I'm hoping I can say I'm the only over that can see the constituencies of both sane Labour MPs on a clear day from my house.
    Is it Snell and Flint?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Pulpstar said:
    Norman Lamb has pointedly avoided saying he will vote against, so I suspect he's either an abstain or a yes.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Someone from Iceland on Newsnight tonight sounding positive about UK joining EFTA/EEA.

    The chairman of EFTA has been positive since before the referendum on the idea.

    It seems the only real hurdle is convincing them that we're in EFTA for the long haul, not just some stepping stone to some Brexiteer lala land.
    The real hurdle is that the UK would have to comply with freedom of movement for people from the EU and EFTA.
    Since it turns out that Parliament isn't a massively racist as May naively assumed, it may not be such a hurdle after all.

    We'll have plenty of time to fudge contributory benefit reforms once we're out of danger.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Pulpstar said:
    Where are the Tory 210 coming from? If May is on the way out, some might think their interests are best served in voting their conscience instead of their soon-to-be gone position....
    This is exactly what I'm beginning to fear...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rcs1000 said:

    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.

    And no end in sight. Sad and depressing. Time to pack it in really.
  • JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    We don't know without another referendum. At the 2017 general election over 80% voted for parties promising Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I'm hoping I can say I'm the only over that can see the constituencies of both sane Labour MPs on a clear day from my house.
    Is it Snell and Flint?
    Mann/Flint potentially.

    Frankly given the way it is looking even they might not bother.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I'm hoping I can say I'm the only over that can see the constituencies of both sane Labour MPs on a clear day from my house.
    Is it Snell and Flint?
    Mann/Flint potentially.

    Frankly given the way it is looking even they might not bother.
    Indeed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    100% wrong. Everything that goes wrong in the UK after Remain steals Brexit will be the fault of the EU. Can't get a job? A house? A future? Blame the EU....
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Where are the Tory 210 coming from? If May is on the way out, some might think their interests are best served in voting their conscience instead of their soon-to-be gone position....
    This is exactly what I'm beginning to fear...
    We have 95 Tories declared against. The payroll vote will vote in favour because it has to not because it wants to. If we assume that 50% of undeclared Tory backbenchers will go no (a conservative estimate since well over half of backbenchers already declared against), that gets us to around 120 Tory noes.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    Oh the old "the Tories will die out" argument......I've been hearing it for 40 years.....those Tories must be well over 100 by now.....
    The Tories have moved with the times to survive, they are far more socially liberal than they used to be. Same with Brexit. The most pro-Brexit cohorts that are dying off are not being replaced by people becoming more anti-EU as they age. It is a cohort thing, not an age thing. Most people who grew up with the EU as part of their lives are positive about it.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018
    ...double post!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Norman Lamb has pointedly avoided saying he will vote against, so I suspect he's either an abstain or a yes.
    Norman Lamb confirmed on Twitter last night he's no.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Donald Trump has just proposed a government run news channel that would avoid the criticism he gets from CNN and the like.

    I just thought I should mention that...
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Norman Lamb has pointedly avoided saying he will vote against, so I suspect he's either an abstain or a yes.
    Do try to keep up.

    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norman-lamb-backs-people-s-vote-on-brexit-1-5795739
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    May probably should delay the vote if it'll be almost 200 maj against
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    The cluster analysis done by YouGov of Leave and Remain voters had three "families" or clusters for each.

    The Leave clusters were:
    British Values Leavers - Old, Tory/UKIP, anti-immigration, ideological. About 15% of voters. They will never change their mind.
    Working Class "Red" Leavers - younger, anti-establishment, Labour. If the establishment is now Leave, what do they do now?
    Moderate Leavers - more rural, low skilled jobs, voted the way their mates were voting if they voted at all. Probably wouldn't vote in a second referendum.

    So it is quite possible that Remain could win 70:30. Let's see.

    PS The Irish vote on the Lisbon Treaty was NO (53/47). Sixteen months later, in a second referendum it was YES (67/33). The EU didn't force people to vote that way. They chose to.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I'm hoping I can say I'm the only over that can see the constituencies of both sane Labour MPs on a clear day from my house.
    Is it Snell and Flint?
    Mann/Flint potentially.

    Frankly given the way it is looking even they might not bother.
    Indeed.
    Flint was interviewed this evening and was very ambivalent about the whole thing. She said a lot of MPs are just keeping their heads down because the debate is so polarised. She's hoping for some kind of deal to be done between May and Corbyn, doesn't think a GE is realistic and seems resigned to there being a second referendum although she's not in favour of it.
  • what are the modelled % differences in gdp per capita?
    Good point. It's easy to increase GDP by allowing lots of immigration but this may reduce the quality of life through congestion with the NHS, education, transport, lower wages etc.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Norman Lamb has pointedly avoided saying he will vote against, so I suspect he's either an abstain or a yes.
    Do try to keep up.

    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norman-lamb-backs-people-s-vote-on-brexit-1-5795739
    Does he want a Remain / No Deal vote?
  • JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Norman Lamb has pointedly avoided saying he will vote against, so I suspect he's either an abstain or a yes.
    Norman Lamb confirmed on Twitter last night he's no.
    I'm out of date, and wrong, and saddened.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    The Momentum deselection machine has shown itself to have teeth.

    Any Labour MP that defies the whip on this will find themselves deselected before their arse hits the street.

    Which narrows down the list of potential Labour MPs to those who have already lost or resigned the whip, expect to be or have already been deselected, or have given up caring.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    100% wrong. Everything that goes wrong in the UK after Remain steals Brexit will be the fault of the EU. Can't get a job? A house? A future? Blame the EU....
    And everything that goes wrong in the UK post a No Deal Brexit will be blamed on that exit... (See my video on the UK economy...)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    Oh the old "the Tories will die out" argument......I've been hearing it for 40 years.....those Tories must be well over 100 by now.....
    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."
  • If she pulls the vote on her deal, it brings into play the prospect of an immediate vote of no confidence in her leadership before rather than after 11th December, or even an early resignation. It is very difficult to see how she can hang on much longer.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018

    JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
    Why in the event of losing a democratic vote should the leavers be any more chaotic and angry than remainers after the first vote? Given the majority of leavers are of pensionable age I think we can rest easy in our beds at the prospect of some kind of terrifying violent insurgency.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
    The idea that Remain can only win by a tiny majority is groupthink with no sound analytical basis.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Norman Lamb has pointedly avoided saying he will vote against, so I suspect he's either an abstain or a yes.
    Norman Lamb confirmed on Twitter last night he's no.
    I'm out of date, and wrong, and saddened.
    But tremendously honest.

    I too am saddened tonight. By the inability of our representatives to compromise and by how that reflects on our polity.

    It didn't have to be like this.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
    Why in the event of losing a democratic vote should the leavers be any more chaotic and angry than remainers after the first vote? Given the majority of leavers are of pensionable age I think we can rest easy in our beds at the prospect of some kind of terrifying violent insurgency.
    Night of the Nearly Dead.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    The Cabinet needs to put a stop to this before it gets any worse.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    If she pulls the vote on her deal, it brings into play the prospect of an immediate vote of no confidence in her leadership before rather than after 11th December, or even an early resignation. It is very difficult to see how she can hang on much longer.
    All the choices are bad for Mrs May now, it seems.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
    Why would the ERG no-confidence May once the deal has fallen? If May goes, so do her red lines and permanent CU or Norway come into play.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    The Cabinet needs to put a stop to this before it gets any worse.
    Hush you, stop spoiling our fun.
  • Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    The cluster analysis done by YouGov of Leave and Remain voters had three "families" or clusters for each.

    The Leave clusters were:
    British Values Leavers - Old, Tory/UKIP, anti-immigration, ideological. About 15% of voters. They will never change their mind.
    Working Class "Red" Leavers - younger, anti-establishment, Labour. If the establishment is now Leave, what do they do now?
    Moderate Leavers - more rural, low skilled jobs, voted the way their mates were voting if they voted at all. Probably wouldn't vote in a second referendum.

    So it is quite possible that Remain could win 70:30. Let's see.

    PS The Irish vote on the Lisbon Treaty was NO (53/47). Sixteen months later, in a second referendum it was YES (67/33). The EU didn't force people to vote that way. They chose to.
    Conveniently ignoring that the EU made significant concessions between the two votes by giving the Irish legally binding opt outs from key areas such as taxation, military neutrality and abortion which had not been in included at the time of the first vote.

    In our case the EU have made no concessions at all. So the comparison is rubbish.
  • kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.

    And no end in sight. Sad and depressing. Time to pack it in really.
    I recommend this article on Unherd suggesting that Social Media makes all of us adopt aspects of fascist politics, subtly changing our behaviours and expectations. I see this in many of my friends with their social media bubbles. It is why PB is so important to me - the mix of views strongly held - but it does feel that the tone here is getting rougher as the key point approaches.
    https://unherd.com/2018/08/social-media-makes-fascists-us/?=refinnar
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    The Cabinet needs to put a stop to this before it gets any worse.
    This is a horrible situation, no matter what one's personal views on Brexit may be.
  • kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's very scary reading pb today. I fear for my country.

    The desire to win and to punish political opponents is so strong.

    And no end in sight. Sad and depressing. Time to pack it in really.
    I recommend this article on Unherd suggesting that Social Media makes all of us adopt aspects of fascist politics, subtly changing our behaviours and expectations. I see this in many of my friends with their social media bubbles. It is why PB is so important to me - the mix of views strongly held - but it does feel that the tone here is getting rougher as the key point approaches.
    https://unherd.com/2018/08/social-media-makes-fascists-us/?=refinnar
    Sadly it is
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I think we can possibly rein in the sanctimonious concern trolling a bit. It's clear we're all enjoying this chaos a fair amount, little point in pretending otherwise.
  • JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
    The idea that Remain can only win by a tiny majority is groupthink with no sound analytical basis.
    Nope it is based on the polls and actually talking to real human beings rather than just making assumptions based on your own bias as you seem to do.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I think we can possibly rein in the sanctimonious concern trolling a bit. It's clear we're all enjoying this chaos a fair amount, little point in pretending otherwise.

    It's interesting, not sure it's enjoyable.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.
    ...

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    Oh the old "the Tories will die out" argument......I've been hearing it for 40 years.....those Tories must be well over 100 by now.....
    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)
    Yes, I already answered that one. The Tory Party has moved with the times to survive. The gay-bashing overtly racist Tory party of yore wouldn't do very well electorally these days because in the intervening years huge numbers of homophobic racists (I'm not especially judging here - it is simply how society was - my own attitudes have changed much for the better since I was a kid and I was at the liberal end) have died. We can see roughly how well it would do by looking at UKIP's electoral fortunes. Similarly, in ten years time, long after we have voted to Remain, anyone suggesting we try to vote to leave the EU again will be looked at quizzically and with some pity.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    The Cabinet needs to put a stop to this before it gets any worse.
    This is a horrible situation, no matter what one's personal views on Brexit may be.

    Indeed.

    Mrs May is a good person and she means well so it's not nice to see her marching into the valley of death like this.

    It was a similar thing with Mrs Thatcher and the god-awful poll tax. Sometimes PM's just become totally fixated on something but there are usually "advisers" pulling the strings...
  • I think we can possibly rein in the sanctimonious concern trolling a bit. It's clear we're all enjoying this chaos a fair amount, little point in pretending otherwise.

    You may enjoy it but many voters despair and find no enjoyment in it at all

    Why should anyone enjoy division and lost harmony
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    The Cabinet needs to put a stop to this before it gets any worse.
    Oh God, is it the return of Nick Timothy ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Indeed, I was sadly thinking the same.

    I'd be surprised if its 2, to be honest.
    I'm hoping I can say I'm the only over that can see the constituencies of both sane Labour MPs on a clear day from my house.
    Is it Snell and Flint?
    Snell came out as a no today. Ironically it was a meeting with Barwell which swung it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    edited November 2018
    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    May's perennial problem has been "the people around her". They buggered up the General Election. They buggered up the negotiation of Brexit. And now they will ultimately bugger up her Premiership.

    Can anybody spot the common link?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,563
    rcs1000 said:

    Donald Trump has just proposed a government run news channel that would avoid the criticism he gets from CNN and the like.

    I just thought I should mention that...

    The very stable genius has also pronounced on climate change:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/418556-trump-rejects-man-made-climate-change

    Now that we’re all going to die, I guess the Brexit clusterfuck doesn’t matter so much...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    GIN1138 said:



    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)

    The tory party has had to embrace progressive policy positions (eg marriage equality) to retain the support of each successive generation of older people reflecting the changes in society. European integration is another such issue. There will be another generation of older tories but they'll have very different attitudes and policy positions than their florid antecedents including on the matter of the EU.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018
    JayW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.
    ...

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    Oh the old "the Tories will die out" argument......I've been hearing it for 40 years.....those Tories must be well over 100 by now.....
    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)
    Yes, I already answered that one. The Tory Party has moved with the times to survive. The gay-bashing overtly racist Tory party of yore wouldn't do very well electorally these days because in the intervening years huge numbers of homophobic racists have died. We can see roughly how well it would do by looking at UKIP's electoral fortunes. Similarly, in ten years time, long after we have voted to Remain, anyone suggesting we try to vote to leave the EU again will be looked at quizzically and with some pity.
    We don't even know where we're going to be in three weeks so we should probably leave 2028 along for now? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Donald Trump has just proposed a government run news channel that would avoid the criticism he gets from CNN and the like.

    I just thought I should mention that...

    Sounds a lot like Corbyn...again....
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.
  • GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    The Cabinet needs to put a stop to this before it gets any worse.
    This is a horrible situation, no matter what one's personal views on Brexit may be.

    Indeed.

    Mrs May is a good person and she means well so it's not nice to see her marching into the valley of death like this.

    It was a similar thing with Mrs Thatcher and the god-awful poll tax. Sometimes PM's just become totally fixated on something but there are usually "advisers" pulling the strings...
    ... with their clever explanations of why the policy is the right thing to do but the explanations cannot be sold to the public.
  • JayW said:

    JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
    Why in the event of losing a democratic vote should the leavers be any more chaotic and angry than remainers after the first vote? Given the majority of leavers are of pensionable age I think we can rest easy in our beds at the prospect of some kind of terrifying violent insurgency.
    Because it would not be a democratic vote. It would be the overturning of a vote that had not even been enacted based on scare stories and Parliamentary opposition. It will be the destruction of democracy in this country not its renewal. As I find myself saying every day to deluded Remainers on here, if you think it will solve anything you are living on another planet.

    This is amply illustrated by your claims about the age of Leave voters. Whilst most pensioners voted Leave it doesn't mean most Leave voters were pensioners.

    46% of 25-49 year olds voted Leave
    60% of 50-64 year olds voted Leave

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

    You are blinded by your own bias
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2018
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    rcs1000 said:

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    100% wrong. Everything that goes wrong in the UK after Remain steals Brexit will be the fault of the EU. Can't get a job? A house? A future? Blame the EU....
    And everything that goes wrong in the UK post a No Deal Brexit will be blamed on that exit... (See my video on the UK economy...)
    Of course. After the Brexit vote, we have two tribes. They've gone to war. A point is all that they can score.

    (Whatever happened to the power of love? Relax.....)
  • May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    Can't say I disagree with a single word of that. Except perhaps to say you are being too kind to her.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:



    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)

    The tory party has had to embrace progressive policy positions (eg marriage equality) to retain the support of each successive generation of older people reflecting the changes in society. European integration is another such issue. There will be another generation of older tories but they'll have very different attitudes and policy positions than their florid antecedents including on the matter of the EU.
    'Florid antecedents' is my new favourite phrase. Thanks, Mr Ace. And yes, exactly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    GIN1138 said:



    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)

    The tory party has had to embrace progressive policy positions (eg marriage equality) to retain the support of each successive generation of older people reflecting the changes in society. European integration is another such issue. There will be another generation of older tories but they'll have very different attitudes and policy positions than their florid antecedents including on the matter of the EU.
    Of course the Tories have to evolve to stay alive electorally but who knows what direction that evolution will take?

    Maybe there will be a split and there won't even be a Tory Party?

    How would a Corbyn government change public opinion?

    Will the EU itself collapse (its worth remembering that while younger people in the UK love the EU, younger people in the EU increasingly dislike it)

    Will the EU involve itself in some terrible conflict with Russia?

    There are so many possibilities in the years to come that it's impossible to work out how opinion might shift or change.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn
    1h1 hour ago

    Cabinet minister: “Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. It’s terrible advice and she deserves better, because they are going to bring her down”."

    May's perennial problem has been "the people around her". They buggered up the General Election. They buggered up the negotiation of Brexit. And now they will ultimately bugger up her Premiership.

    Can anybody spot the common link?
    Is it Nick Timothy ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    May is everything you are not. A decent person, committed, hard working and determined.

    Not a fanatic like you who deceitfully backed a Leave campaign built around a key plank of cutting immigration and then disowned any links with that campaign after the vote.


    Not only are you rude with a nasty streak you are clearly dishonest too
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    GIN1138 said:

    JayW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JayW said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.
    ...

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
    Oh the old "the Tories will die out" argument......I've been hearing it for 40 years.....those Tories must be well over 100 by now.....
    Yeah I thought we nailed that one on here in around 2007...

    For every old Tory who dies another old person replaces them. And guess what? They tend to vote Tory too.

    In fact in 40 years time most of the Corbynista "**** the Tories" Millennial's will be Tory voting pensioners (or whatever right wing party emerges after the Tories if Brexit kills them off)
    Yes, I already answered that one. The Tory Party has moved with the times to survive. The gay-bashing overtly racist Tory party of yore wouldn't do very well electorally these days because in the intervening years huge numbers of homophobic racists have died. We can see roughly how well it would do by looking at UKIP's electoral fortunes. Similarly, in ten years time, long after we have voted to Remain, anyone suggesting we try to vote to leave the EU again will be looked at quizzically and with some pity.
    We don't even know where we're going to be in three weeks so we should probably leave 2028 along for now? ;)
    Sorry, I'll admit I did tip over slightly into wind-up mode there. Mea culpa. Or as the Romans would say, "My bad".
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    As she seemingly nears her political obituary I was trying to be nice. :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    May is everything you are not. A decent person, committed, hard working and determined.

    Not a fanatic like you who deceitfully backed a Leave campaign built around a key plank of cutting immigration and then disowned any links with that campaign after the vote.


    Not only are you rude with a nasty streak you are clearly dishonest too
    I didn't know grabcocque supported Leave.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    So it seems the public prefer a no-deal Brexit to May's deal by 41.2% - 34.7%
    It prefers remaining in the EU to May's Brexit deal by 46.2 - 31.7

    So May's deal is the least preferred option amongst voters.

    That's not *quite* what the Mail story says.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.

    If she pulls the vote on her deal, it brings into play the prospect of an immediate vote of no confidence in her leadership before rather than after 11th December, or even an early resignation. It is very difficult to see how she can hang on much longer.
    210 Tory MPs back her Deal out of 318 on those figures, she can survive easily on that
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    May is everything you are not. A decent person, committed, hard working and determined.

    Not a fanatic like you who deceitfully backed a Leave campaign built around a key plank of cutting immigration and then disowned any links with that campaign after the vote.


    Not only are you rude with a nasty streak you are clearly dishonest too
    I didn't know grabcocque supported Leave.
    I voted leave because I knew (or at least strongly hoped) that this chaos would occur. This cleansing flame has needed to come for a long time.
  • So it sounds like it could get worse. May could bow to the inevitable. Have the first four days of debate on the deal but not the vote on the 5th. The deal gets savaged but not rejected. May then goes to the scheduled EUCO on 13th/14th with everyone having seen the coverage of Commons debate and she asks for help. Thus denying us the national laxative of her resignation.

    Alternatively if she is dispatched quickly ( she's in Argentina on Fri/Sat. Shades of Thatcher in Paris ) the new PM could cancel the vote and also go to EUCO and reopen things. Constitutionally the government that signed off on the deal would no longer exist and the commons wouldn't have endorsed it either.

    More fudge and delay.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I don't remember, but No Deal hasn't always been more popular than May's deal, has it?

    It's now the least preferred option available, but it's amazing that even No Deal is more popular.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    I don't remember, but No Deal hasn't always been more popular than May's deal, has it?

    It's now the least preferred option available, but it's amazing that even No Deal is more popular.

    Yes, three way polling ever since Justine Greening first framed it that way has always been:
    1. Remain
    2. No Deal
    3. Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
    No they won't as they have no alternative Deal and most Tory MPs oppose No Deal.

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes
This discussion has been closed.