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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Bre

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Brexit deal

The big overnight Brexit news is a Survation poll for the Daily Mail which is being splashed all over its front page as can be seen above.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,385
    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,274
    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...

    Best on offer?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,855
    Virtually no difference between Leave and Remain on whether they want the deal to go through!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,004
    edited November 2018
    MPs will also see the other responses in the poll, though: the ones that show Remain and No Deal are preferred options to May's Deal.
  • My folks position has certainly softened. They have a lot of sympathy and admiration for Theresa May.

    They buy the Daily Mail every day.

    Too many MPs have got this badly wrong.
  • You can tell it’s a fair politically sustainable deal because almost identical percentages of Leave and Remain voters support it.

    Perfect compromise.
  • MPs will also see the other responses in the poll, though: the ones that show Remain and No Deal are preferred options to May's Deal.

    It shows how retarded the ERG are.

    Their actions will lead to us Remaining in the EU.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,274
    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    Abstaining would be a politically astute move by Labour. It would please their supporters, keep the focus firmly on the Tory splits and allow them to get a pretty good deal which they could nevertheless slag off in usual hypocritical politician manner.

    We can therefore be fairly sure it won't happen.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 2,753
    edited November 2018
    Going off the angry comments on the Wail website you wonder who will last longer - Theresa May or Geordie Greig?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    Going off the angry comments on the Wail website you wonder who will last longer - Theresa May or Geordie Greig?

    Has Grabcocque been busy over there as well? Or was it a copy and paste job?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,274
    ydoethur said:

    Abstaining would be a politically astute move by Labour. It would please their supporters, keep the focus firmly on the Tory splits and allow them to get a pretty good deal which they could nevertheless slag off in usual hypocritical politician manner.

    We can therefore be fairly sure it won't happen.

    Disagree; it would look very bad indeed; 'no opinion' on one of the, if not the, most important matters since Irish independence!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    edited November 2018

    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp

    TBH OKC, as a Remainer who lives in Leaver heartland I've seen no sign of any softening of attitude towards the EU. However, given the enormous importance of manufacturing to the area it is equally vital we have a deal, and this is a good one from our point of view.

    Any party who votes it down so we leave without one - which is the alternative (fantasy posts about us unilaterally withdrawing A50 to reintroduce it later on the last thread say more about how much alcohol people are drinking than reality) faces wipeout in the Midlands for 25 years. It would make the Tories in Liverpool and West Yorkshire look like a picnic.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,654

    MPs will also see the other responses in the poll, though: the ones that show Remain and No Deal are preferred options to May's Deal.

    It shows how retarded the ERG are.

    Their actions will lead to us Remaining in the EU.
    Maybe the upshot will be as Churchill said of the Americans
    "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    Abstaining would be a politically astute move by Labour. It would please their supporters, keep the focus firmly on the Tory splits and allow them to get a pretty good deal which they could nevertheless slag off in usual hypocritical politician manner.

    We can therefore be fairly sure it won't happen.

    Disagree; it would look very bad indeed; 'no opinion' on one of the, if not the, most important matters since Irish independence!
    Which was ultimately agreed when a large number of Unionist backbenchers were persuaded to abstain.

    Just saying...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,839
    edited November 2018

    You can tell it’s a fair politically sustainable deal because almost identical percentages of Leave and Remain voters support it.

    Perfect compromise.

    My interpretation is that in reality no one really knows the full implications of the WA.

    The split between Tories and Labour shows that a lot of support from leavers comes from Tories scared of Corbyn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    On topic:

    We must remember that Mrs May plays chess in four dimensions; we cannot understand the moves but only see the results.

    She survived at the Home Office for such a long time where so many have failed, and emerged with her reputation intact to nab the top job that some of the most ambitious politicians in the country spend every waking moment plotting to win. Despite the worst inheritance of any PM she continues to survive apparently against the odds, and beyond politics is held in reasonably and remarkably high esteem by voters across the spectrum.

    Doubtless at her deep game she identified that a Tory majority was an impediment to her objectives, and devised a truly cunning plan to dispense with it. And continue in office thereafter; an achievement that would have been beyond anyone not already mistress of the fourth dimension.

    She is surely playing out an equally complex plan right now, which isn't apparent to those of us trapped in just the theee dimensions? We just need to wait to see what transpires,

    Things seem so much clearer before I have properly woken up.
  • Going off the angry comments on the Wail website you wonder who will last longer - Theresa May or Geordie Greig?

    Daily Mail results are tomorrow. If they are bad on the newspaper side, Greig likely to come under more pressure. Apparently, both The Sun and The Telegraph are making noises in the industry about taking dissatisfied Mail readers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 13,274

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    Sorry, left a S off. Camps. In my ideal world the Government, having got where we are, would say that 'we noted the result of the referendum and acted on it. We have spent a long time in detailed negotiatiosn. However, it is clear that Leaving with no deal would be, in the short to medium term at least, economically disastrous, and therefore, as a responsible Government, Remain is the only option.

    As far as actually getting another referendum, there is time before the 29th March, given that the arguments have been done to death.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,830
    edited November 2018

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...

    "Leavers" meaning the dedicated leave campaigners, versus "leavers" meaning people who voted Leave, are very different things. Just as almost all UKIP activists were right-wing Tories yet its vote came from across the political spectrum. It's not dissimilar to the GOP model.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    edited November 2018

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    It's today. (Edit/ and it's been leaked already)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
  • ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
  • Lets consider a little further down the rabbit hole. May's deal will not pass the commons. And in clinging to it resolutely against all political sanity her premiership will go with it.

    What happens next? Two options for the Tories - a quick coronation of a Boris figure or a bitter civil war.
    1. PM Boris. Almost certainly Labour would VONC him. Would the Tory MPswho openly despise him vote confidence in him? Or will Tory abstainers offset votes won from the DUP? Assuming he passes we then move straight to the next crisis where he goes to Brussels, they refuse to budge and he says "fine, no deal then". As so many Tory MPs are clearly against no deal I think this is less likely than
    2. Tory Civil War. They would have a point when they try to justify a full contest as being in the national interest because the alternative is option 1. However, would leave us with no functioning government at a time when we don't have time for that, hence another VONC which I expect they'd lose.

    At which point the scenario puts Corbyn into number 10 for a brief period sustained by the Tories abstaining. However, from a Labour position the glaring problems are:
    1. Corbyn, like May, has said a lot of things very unpopular with the membership. Unable to restrain himself Corbyn is likely to declare his intention to leave the EU and EEA and the adoption of a permanent CU. As this is an even worse position than May's deal I wonder how he gets that through the Commons. And worse for Corbyn is
    2. The membership are not going to allow Jezbollah to lead out out of the EU and EEA. He only has unflinching support from cultists, the vast majority of Corbyn supporting members are pro EU and won't stand for him smashing their hopes.

    Fun times ahead...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,159
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    Remainer wishful thinking is a sight to behold today. As is the ERG 'we can do better than this' shtick.

    If we don't have accept the deal, we leave without a deal. Everyone who votes against a deal will be directly responsible for that no deal. Pipe dreams about unicorns and another referendum hinder, they do not help.

    The solution is to accept the loss, and move forward. Ditto for the ERG brigade - accept the partial win, and move forward.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Citation needed
  • Mortimer said:


    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    You'd have to pass new legislation. Fortunately parliament will still be there the day after the meaningful vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Citation needed
    Googling 'Enemies of the People' brings up the relevant judgment. By all means do it yourself.

    Basically, the law as it stands is that referendums are advisory. They cannot therefore ratify ex post facto, or indeed be used for any strictly legal purpose.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    edited November 2018
    My wife was doing a very similar poll for Yougov yesterday afternoon so there is likely to be other results out shortly.

    The Daily Mail is becoming May's most important single supporter. FWIW I would have said yes, yes and god yes to these questions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368

    Mortimer said:


    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    You'd have to pass new legislation. Fortunately parliament will still be there the day after the meaningful vote.
    Stop giving Paul Staines ideas...
  • Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    Remainer wishful thinking is a sight to behold today. As is the ERG 'we can do better than this' shtick.

    If we don't have accept the deal, we leave without a deal. Everyone who votes against a deal will be directly responsible for that no deal. Pipe dreams about unicorns and another referendum hinder, they do not help.

    The solution is to accept the loss, and move forward. Ditto for the ERG brigade - accept the partial win, and move forward.
    Why would parliament accept the notion of "we leave without a deal?" Because when people voted to be better off that gives a mandate to make them significantly worse off?

    It is not May's deal or No Deal. It is EFTA/EEA + CU or Remain. May's deal is dead. No Deal is a non-starter. So we either leave to existing treaties (EFTA/EEA) or we don't leave.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    edited November 2018

    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    Remainer wishful thinking is a sight to behold today. As is the ERG 'we can do better than this' shtick.

    If we don't have accept the deal, we leave without a deal. Everyone who votes against a deal will be directly responsible for that no deal. Pipe dreams about unicorns and another referendum hinder, they do not help.

    The solution is to accept the loss, and move forward. Ditto for the ERG brigade - accept the partial win, and move forward.
    Why would parliament accept the notion of "we leave without a deal?" Because when people voted to be better off that gives a mandate to make them significantly worse off?

    It is not May's deal or No Deal. It is EFTA/EEA + CU or Remain. May's deal is dead. No Deal is a non-starter. So we either leave to existing treaties (EFTA/EEA) or we don't leave.
    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    IanB2 said:

    On topic:

    We must remember that Mrs May plays chess in four dimensions; we cannot understand the moves but only see the results.

    She survived at the Home Office for such a long time where so many have failed, and emerged with her reputation intact to nab the top job that some of the most ambitious politicians in the country spend every waking moment plotting to win. Despite the worst inheritance of any PM she continues to survive apparently against the odds, and beyond politics is held in reasonably and remarkably high esteem by voters across the spectrum.

    Doubtless at her deep game she identified that a Tory majority was an impediment to her objectives, and devised a truly cunning plan to dispense with it. And continue in office thereafter; an achievement that would have been beyond anyone not already mistress of the fourth dimension.

    She is surely playing out an equally complex plan right now, which isn't apparent to those of us trapped in just the theee dimensions? We just need to wait to see what transpires,

    Things seem so much clearer before I have properly woken up.

    It would be great if we had someone genuinely clever in charge of this. The Attorney General comes to mind. But we need to make do with what we have.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 15,368
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic:

    We must remember that Mrs May plays chess in four dimensions; we cannot understand the moves but only see the results.

    She survived at the Home Office for such a long time where so many have failed, and emerged with her reputation intact to nab the top job that some of the most ambitious politicians in the country spend every waking moment plotting to win. Despite the worst inheritance of any PM she continues to survive apparently against the odds, and beyond politics is held in reasonably and remarkably high esteem by voters across the spectrum.

    Doubtless at her deep game she identified that a Tory majority was an impediment to her objectives, and devised a truly cunning plan to dispense with it. And continue in office thereafter; an achievement that would have been beyond anyone not already mistress of the fourth dimension.

    She is surely playing out an equally complex plan right now, which isn't apparent to those of us trapped in just the theee dimensions? We just need to wait to see what transpires,

    Things seem so much clearer before I have properly woken up.

    It would be great if we had someone genuinely clever in charge of this. The Attorney General comes to mind. But we need to make do with what we have.
    Are you saying we need a Cox up?

    Have a good morning.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 2,687
    tlg86 said:

    You can tell it’s a fair politically sustainable deal because almost identical percentages of Leave and Remain voters support it.

    Perfect compromise.

    My interpretation is that in reality no one really knows the full implications of the WA.

    The split between Tories and Labour shows that a lot of support from leavers comes from Tories scared of Corbyn.
    A lot of support for the deal from pb.com leavers is from the May fedayeen. The deal passing is the only way their Grey Queen survives so they dutifully row in behind it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    DavidL said:

    My wife was doing a very similar poll for Yougov yesterday afternoon so there is likely to be other results out shortly.

    The Daily Mail is becoming May's most important single supporter. FWIW I would have said yes, yes and yes to these questions.

    Yes, I was Yougov-ed on it yesterday too.

    There may well be more support for the Deal in the country than Parliament (though of course very few of the public have read it! ), so clearly the way forward is a #peoplesvote on it. That must surely be the reason for May being out on the stump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    edited November 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    tlg86 said:

    You can tell it’s a fair politically sustainable deal because almost identical percentages of Leave and Remain voters support it.

    Perfect compromise.

    My interpretation is that in reality no one really knows the full implications of the WA.

    The split between Tories and Labour shows that a lot of support from leavers comes from Tories scared of Corbyn.
    A lot of support for the deal from pb.com leavers is from the May fedayeen. The deal passing is the only way their Grey Queen survives so they dutifully row in behind it.
    I would say the exact opposite tbh. Most of the support comes from people like me who are seriously unhappy (its early) about the way the negotiations have been conducted but who are willing to accept we are where we are.

    Another Dune fan by the way?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Citation needed
    Googling 'Enemies of the People' brings up the relevant judgment. By all means do it yourself.

    Basically, the law as it stands is that referendums are advisory. They cannot therefore ratify ex post facto, or indeed be used for any strictly legal purpose.
    Are you talking about this?
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/summary-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

    IANAL but it doesn't appear to say that. It says the act that parliament passed for the previous referendum doesn't authorize the government to pull Article 50 without asking them, but as any fule kno the previous referendum was non-binding. I can't see anything in it that says parliament says you can't pass a binding one.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Is "It's not ideal - but it's the best on offer?" the actual question?

    Helpful for getting the Yes number higher. And Yes/No usually helps Yes.

    The main story is how far the Mail has shifted since Dacre left.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Damn, looks like MS run off will be a loser. Espy definitely had a chance based on early returns so laid up Hyde Smith on Betfair last night, though she didn't win by enough to beat the under over spread too :(
    Oh well can't win everything, midterms were not too bad overall
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic:

    We must remember that Mrs May plays chess in four dimensions; we cannot understand the moves but only see the results.

    She survived at the Home Office for such a long time where so many have failed, and emerged with her reputation intact to nab the top job that some of the most ambitious politicians in the country spend every waking moment plotting to win. Despite the worst inheritance of any PM she continues to survive apparently against the odds, and beyond politics is held in reasonably and remarkably high esteem by voters across the spectrum.

    Doubtless at her deep game she identified that a Tory majority was an impediment to her objectives, and devised a truly cunning plan to dispense with it. And continue in office thereafter; an achievement that would have been beyond anyone not already mistress of the fourth dimension.

    She is surely playing out an equally complex plan right now, which isn't apparent to those of us trapped in just the theee dimensions? We just need to wait to see what transpires,

    Things seem so much clearer before I have properly woken up.

    It would be great if we had someone genuinely clever in charge of this. The Attorney General comes to mind. But we need to make do with what we have.
    Are you saying we need a Cox up?

    Have a good morning.
    Do you teach all your history by pun? It must indeed make it memorable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    My wife was doing a very similar poll for Yougov yesterday afternoon so there is likely to be other results out shortly.

    The Daily Mail is becoming May's most important single supporter. FWIW I would have said yes, yes and yes to these questions.

    Yes, I was Yougov-ed on it yesterday too.

    There may well be more support for the Deal in the country than Parliament (though of course very few of the public have read it! ), so clearly the way forward is a #peoplesvote on it. That must surely be the reason for May being out on the stump.
    It would be hard to imagine there being less support for the deal in the country than there currently is in Parliament!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,159
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    Remainer wishful thinking is a sight to behold today. As is the ERG 'we can do better than this' shtick.

    If we don't have accept the deal, we leave without a deal. Everyone who votes against a deal will be directly responsible for that no deal. Pipe dreams about unicorns and another referendum hinder, they do not help.

    The solution is to accept the loss, and move forward. Ditto for the ERG brigade - accept the partial win, and move forward.
    Why would parliament accept the notion of "we leave without a deal?" Because when people voted to be better off that gives a mandate to make them significantly worse off?

    It is not May's deal or No Deal. It is EFTA/EEA + CU or Remain. May's deal is dead. No Deal is a non-starter. So we either leave to existing treaties (EFTA/EEA) or we don't leave.
    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.
    If this was Twitter, that would be my pinned tweet until the end of March 2019....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,137
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Citation needed
    Googling 'Enemies of the People' brings up the relevant judgment. By all means do it yourself.

    Basically, the law as it stands is that referendums are advisory. They cannot therefore ratify ex post facto, or indeed be used for any strictly legal purpose.
    Are you talking about this?
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/summary-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

    IANAL but it doesn't appear to say that. It says the act that parliament passed for the previous referendum doesn't authorize the government to pull Article 50 without asking them, but as any fule kno the previous referendum was non-binding. I can't see anything in it that says parliament says you can't pass a binding one.

    deleted
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,557
    edited November 2018
    Anyone bet on total Dem wins in USA elections . Election board unanimously refusing to certify GOP win.

    http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html?__twitter_impression=true

    if this result is reversed then that's 41 pickups for the Dems. Not a
    wave.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,401
    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...

    Confirms the public are thick as two short planks.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,977
    On the humiliation aspect, which I've mentioned earlier, some Remainers haven't even considered this. It would loom very large in the unlikely event of a second referendum. "Do you bend the knee to Barnier and the French by begging to be allowed back?" is a nice visceral question. The Eurofan answer may be 'Yes, pretty please, and we'll be ever so good in the future,' but will the voters wear this?

    The deal question for the Leavers was always going to be 'Do you trust Mrs May?' She may be incompetent and out of her depth, but when she says it's the first step on the road to Brexit, does she mean it?

    She may only be a woman, but on trust that's probably a plus.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Citation needed
    Googling 'Enemies of the People' brings up the relevant judgment. By all means do it yourself.

    Basically, the law as it stands is that referendums are advisory. They cannot therefore ratify ex post facto, or indeed be used for any strictly legal purpose.
    Are you talking about this?
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/summary-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

    IANAL but it doesn't appear to say that. It says the act that parliament passed for the previous referendum doesn't authorize the government to pull Article 50 without asking them, but as any fule kno the previous referendum was non-binding. I can't see anything in it that says parliament says you can't pass a binding one.
    The key to that judgment was that EU law was, as a result of the European Communities Act 1972, a part of the substantive law of the UK as were innumerable subsequent Acts of Parliament. The government could not use its perogative to negate Acts of Parliament and change our substantive law. We needed an Act of Parliament to allow that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...

    Confirms the public are thick as two short planks.
    Since you are a member of the public as well, that explains a great deal ... ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Citation needed
    Googling 'Enemies of the People' brings up the relevant judgment. By all means do it yourself.

    Basically, the law as it stands is that referendums are advisory. They cannot therefore ratify ex post facto, or indeed be used for any strictly legal purpose.
    Are you talking about this?
    https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/summary-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

    IANAL but it doesn't appear to say that. It says the act that parliament passed for the previous referendum doesn't authorize the government to pull Article 50 without asking them, but as any fule kno the previous referendum was non-binding. I can't see anything in it that says parliament says you can't pass a binding one.
    The AV referendum was binding, with the referendum bill specifying the regulations the minister must implement had the result been a yes.
  • ydoethur said:


    Why would parliament accept the notion of "we leave without a deal?" Because when people voted to be better off that gives a mandate to make them significantly worse off?

    It is not May's deal or No Deal. It is EFTA/EEA + CU or Remain. May's deal is dead. No Deal is a non-starter. So we either leave to existing treaties (EFTA/EEA) or we don't leave.

    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.
    1. I am aware that having triggered A50 we leave regardless of a deal unless other action is taken. My simple point is that action will be taken
    2. The EU are clear about their position. Red lines are not being compromised. No further bespoke deal cakeism. But also that they don't want no deal Brexit and would prefer us to stay
    3. EEA has always been on the table. We have not triggered the 12 months notice to leave it, and if we sign a bilateral deal with EFTA no cake deal is needed. Uniquely NI forces a customs solution which has already been agreed
    4. Also on the wish list of "please let this not be true" is that in less than 2 weeks May's deal will be history and her government with it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    Well, quite. And there is the obvious flaw that no referendum can be added to the 'meaningful vote' because it isn't legislation.

    Remainer wishful thinking is a sight to behold today. As is the ERG 'we can do better than this' shtick.

    If we don't have accept the deal, we leave without a deal. Everyone who votes against a deal will be directly responsible for that no deal. Pipe dreams about unicorns and another referendum hinder, they do not help.

    The solution is to accept the loss, and move forward. Ditto for the ERG brigade - accept the partial win, and move forward.
    Why would parliament accept the notion of "we leave without a deal?" Because when people voted to be better off that gives a mandate to make them significantly worse off?

    It is not May's deal or No Deal. It is EFTA/EEA + CU or Remain. May's deal is dead. No Deal is a non-starter. So we either leave to existing treaties (EFTA/EEA) or we don't leave.
    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.
    I don't think either the government or parliament will just sit there doing nothing except watching no deal coming towards us.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...

    Confirms the public are thick as two short planks.
    Since you are a member of the public as well, that explains a great deal ... ;)
    Malcolm is a wise and disinterested observer with a slightly odd penchant for turnips.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    Aren't there added difficulties about which options are given in the referendum, and whether the EU would agree to whatever outcome (after the way we've acted, they'd be perfectly within their rights to say: "You're too much bother, piss off!", or "You must fully join the EU, including Euro and have no rebates"). All this should be known and agreed before any referendum, otherwise we'll just get into the same mess of the public not knowing what they voted for.

    I also fail to see how a close referendum result, especially if an option such as 'remain' or 'leave' is left off, will not solve anything.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    Dura_Ace said:

    tlg86 said:

    You can tell it’s a fair politically sustainable deal because almost identical percentages of Leave and Remain voters support it.

    Perfect compromise.

    My interpretation is that in reality no one really knows the full implications of the WA.

    The split between Tories and Labour shows that a lot of support from leavers comes from Tories scared of Corbyn.
    A lot of support for the deal from pb.com leavers is from the May fedayeen. The deal passing is the only way their Grey Queen survives so they dutifully row in behind it.
    "the May fadayeen" ?

    I find it hard to think of who you are referring to, as May gets routinely slated by almost everyone on here, especially after last year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Alistair said:

    Anyone bet on total Dem wins in USA elections . Election board unanimously refusing to certify GOP win.

    http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html?__twitter_impression=true

    if this result is reversed then that's 41 pickups for the Dems. Not a
    wave.

    Can't possibly see how that is reversed, refusing to certify an entire district - whiffy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,385

    Dura_Ace said:

    tlg86 said:

    You can tell it’s a fair politically sustainable deal because almost identical percentages of Leave and Remain voters support it.

    Perfect compromise.

    My interpretation is that in reality no one really knows the full implications of the WA.

    The split between Tories and Labour shows that a lot of support from leavers comes from Tories scared of Corbyn.
    A lot of support for the deal from pb.com leavers is from the May fedayeen. The deal passing is the only way their Grey Queen survives so they dutifully row in behind it.
    "the May fadayeen" ?

    I find it hard to think of who you are referring to, as May gets routinely slated by almost everyone on here, especially after last year.
    No, there is a handful - but most of those supporting the deal really aren't fans of May at all. Quite the reverse.
  • UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn defects to 'resurgent' SDP
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,385
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing is all the leavers in denial about this, insisting that it is a ‘betrayal’.
    Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...

    Confirms the public are thick as two short planks.
    So we can just dismiss the referendum vote as an act of monumental stupidity which can safely be ignored.
    You might just have a point, malc.
  • ydoethur said:



    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    This comment should be posted hourly. It covers 85% of what needs to be said at the moment.

    The other 15% relates to whether Remain would in fact be available and whether in fact Britain might get an extension to sort itself out.

    The rest is verbiage.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,760
    That really is a remarkable front page. I have not seen anything so committed since the Indy last had the oil covered birds and global warming on the front page. Admittedly that will have been some time in the last week.

    And Sarah Vine's hubby might well have been sacked by May at one point but wasn't he recently offered (and turned down) the job of Brexit Secretary?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 9,830
    edited November 2018

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    Aren't there added difficulties about which options are given in the referendum, and whether the EU would agree to whatever outcome (after the way we've acted, they'd be perfectly within their rights to say: "You're too much bother, piss off!", or "You must fully join the EU, including Euro and have no rebates"). All this should be known and agreed before any referendum, otherwise we'll just get into the same mess of the public not knowing what they voted for.

    I also fail to see how a close referendum result, especially if an option such as 'remain' or 'leave' is left off, will not solve anything.
    Sure, there are difficulties, life is full of difficulties.

    I think you'd really want to get the rest of the member states to agree ahead of time that the UK could come back in without changing its status. The idea that a bunch of countries that are having all kinds of problems with the Eurozone are suddenly going to try to forcibly recruit a country that doesn't want to join is ludicrously bonkers, but the voters don't know this, and the Leave campaign(s) would certainly claim it. I also think the other member states would agree to make an assurance like this, as they like it when problems go away, but it's not 100% certain.

    What it solves is getting an arrangement that doesn't blow up the economy into law. It's true that it doesn't solve the problem of getting people who disagree with each other about EU to stop arguing on the internet, but that's not a sensible or achievable goal, as the previous referendum should have shown.
  • Flicking through Twitter, as I usually do, and caught an interesting tweet from some fellow called Mike Smithson, indicating the same poll had a 48% finding in favour of a second referendum.

    Genuinely surprised it's that high (coincidentally the same as the percentage who voted to Remain the first time). Still, makes ye olde bet on said referendum likelier to come off.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341
    Scott_P said:
    Replacing the bespoke backstop with a reentry backstop should help then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone bet on total Dem wins in USA elections . Election board unanimously refusing to certify GOP win.

    http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html?__twitter_impression=true

    if this result is reversed then that's 41 pickups for the Dems. Not a
    wave.

    Can't possibly see how that is reversed, refusing to certify an entire district - whiffy
    I guess they want whatever has gone down in the 9th district to come out in open court..
  • Scott_P said:
    You mean we had May's deal in 2016?

    It's remarkable how so many Remainers seem to want to equate Brexit with May's deal.
  • ydoethur said:



    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    This comment should be posted hourly. It covers 85% of what needs to be said at the moment.

    The other 15% relates to whether Remain would in fact be available and whether in fact Britain might get an extension to sort itself out.

    The rest is verbiage.
    Which is fine, but you also need to add that May's deal will be demolished by the Commons and isn't going to pass. Wishful thinking is the idea that MPs will be persuaded to see sense and back the deal and the PM.

    If the deal is deal, and no deal is a disaster, and the will is there to find a third way, then shockingly we're into classic EU deal territory, where it's always last minute. A deal will be done. Not a cakeist deal, an off the shelf deal that we could have had from the start. Rescinding A50 is one such option. "Not in our gift" is true. But as the EU want no deal as little as we do it would be a truly epic play on their part to deny the new UK government such a request.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 13,145

    UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn defects to 'resurgent' SDP
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121

    A bizarre turnabout for that remnant party, remembering that it was founded originally as a home for pro-Europeans fleeing the other parties, principally Labour.
  • ydoethur said:



    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    This comment should be posted hourly. It covers 85% of what needs to be said at the moment.

    The other 15% relates to whether Remain would in fact be available and whether in fact Britain might get an extension to sort itself out.

    The rest is verbiage.
    Which is fine, but you also need to add that May's deal will be demolished by the Commons and isn't going to pass. Wishful thinking is the idea that MPs will be persuaded to see sense and back the deal and the PM.

    If the deal is deal, and no deal is a disaster, and the will is there to find a third way, then shockingly we're into classic EU deal territory, where it's always last minute. A deal will be done. Not a cakeist deal, an off the shelf deal that we could have had from the start. Rescinding A50 is one such option. "Not in our gift" is true. But as the EU want no deal as little as we do it would be a truly epic play on their part to deny the new UK government such a request.
    It should not surprise you to know that I intend returning to this subject soon in a thread header!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293

    UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn defects to 'resurgent' SDP
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121

    SDP seem to have shifted a long way from the party that I voted for in 1983. One of many reasons to break from Labour was Labour's policy to leave the EEC.
  • Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    If this was Twitter, that would be my pinned tweet until the end of March 2019....
    Would be pretty embarrassing having this pinned once renegotiations start in January and a subsequent amended deal is agreed. This is by default the only deal on offer while we might agree to it, if its not agreeable then we go back to the drawing board.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291

    I think we can possibly rein in the sanctimonious concern trolling a bit. It's clear we're all enjoying this chaos a fair amount, little point in pretending otherwise.

    Don't tell me or others that concerns we feel are not sincere, thank you. I'll believe you mean what you say, kindly do the same. Political chaos can be fun, but this isn't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341

    Scott_P said:
    You mean we had May's deal in 2016?

    It's remarkable how so many Remainers seem to want to equate Brexit with May's deal.
    Wake up old chap, it’s the only deal in town. And apart from minor amendments the only deal there will be.

    The alternatives

    No deal
    Remain

    So unless you are a no deal fan, this deal IS Brexit.
  • Foxy said:

    UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn defects to 'resurgent' SDP
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121

    SDP seem to have shifted a long way from the party that I voted for in 1983. One of many reasons to break from Labour was Labour's policy to leave the EEC.
    EEC has drifted a long way from what it was in 1983.
  • Mr. Thompson, indeed, deliberately negotiating a terrible deal then presenting us with the choice of remaining after all or having something definitively worse was a course predicted by various people, at least one of whom is renowned for lacy menswear.

    That brings us to the interesting question of the question that might be posed by a second referendum. It's also why I think that May's Deal versus Remain is the way likeliest to result in us staying after all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 49,035

    ydoethur said:



    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    This comment should be posted hourly. It covers 85% of what needs to be said at the moment.

    The other 15% relates to whether Remain would in fact be available and whether in fact Britain might get an extension to sort itself out.

    The rest is verbiage.
    Which is fine, but you also need to add that May's deal will be demolished by the Commons and isn't going to pass. Wishful thinking is the idea that MPs will be persuaded to see sense and back the deal and the PM.

    If the deal is deal, and no deal is a disaster, and the will is there to find a third way, then shockingly we're into classic EU deal territory, where it's always last minute. A deal will be done. Not a cakeist deal, an off the shelf deal that we could have had from the start. Rescinding A50 is one such option. "Not in our gift" is true. But as the EU want no deal as little as we do it would be a truly epic play on their part to deny the new UK government such a request.
    I can't see Macron making it all particularly easy for us
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517
    Scott_P said:
    This was said and known before the referendum. Even honest leavers on here admitted there would be short-term pain, with hopefully medium- and long-term gain.

    Despite this, people still voted to leave.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,341

    Mr. Thompson, indeed, deliberately negotiating a terrible deal then presenting us with the choice of remaining after all or having something definitively worse was a course predicted by various people, at least one of whom is renowned for lacy menswear.

    That brings us to the interesting question of the question that might be posed by a second referendum. It's also why I think that May's Deal versus Remain is the way likeliest to result in us staying after all.

    A three way or two way vote could go in any direction. The British electorate are hard to call on this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 22,057
    Chalk up another one to "too many tweets makes a twat":

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46309561

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    Mr. Thompson, indeed, deliberately negotiating a terrible deal then presenting us with the choice of remaining after all or having something definitively worse was a course predicted by various people, at least one of whom is renowned for lacy menswear.

    That brings us to the interesting question of the question that might be posed by a second referendum. It's also why I think that May's Deal versus Remain is the way likeliest to result in us staying after all.

    It was mainly predicted by people such as yourself, who routinely bat down any deal.

    And I'm unsure how you can claim she 'deliberately' negotiated a terrible deal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,965
    ydoethur said:



    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    The Withdrawal Agreement (Transition Period, financial settlement, citizens rights and Irish backstop) is the only deal available. The Political Statement (everything else) is open. If we wanted EEA and CU is probably available. Remain is probably also acceptable to the EU if we sign the WA as an insurances policy. Mrs May presents the whole package as the only thing available. It isn't.

    In fact, the Political Statement isn't a viable end state agreement. It's going to change very significantly anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293

    Foxy said:

    UKIP MEP Patrick O'Flynn defects to 'resurgent' SDP
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121

    SDP seem to have shifted a long way from the party that I voted for in 1983. One of many reasons to break from Labour was Labour's policy to leave the EEC.
    EEC has drifted a long way from what it was in 1983.
    Yes, both the Single Market, and the absorption of the majority of EFTA and former communist Europe have happened since. Both projects very much driven by British Conservatives, when they showed some national self confidence.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 47,068
    edited November 2018
    Mr. Jonathan, indeed. Be interesting to see the odds, if things get that far.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Mark, it's true there's much obnoxious behaviour on Twitter, but plenty of civility and interesting discussion too. Had a conversation with a polite stranger yesterday about how well or badly Bottas did in 2018, particularly regarding bad luck in the first half of the season. Led me to slightly amend a mostly written driver head-to-head post that'll go up after the season review.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    The good news for May is Tory voters back the Deal almost 2:1 and a huge 62% of Tory voters want MPs to back the Deal.

    The fact more Leave and Remain voters support the Deal than oppose it and want it to pass shows the Deal is the only way to unite the country now.

    EUref2 or No Deal would hugely divide us again on Remain v No Deal Leaver lines
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,517

    Sure, there are difficulties, life is full of difficulties.

    I think you'd really want to get the rest of the member states to agree ahead of time that the UK could come back in without changing its status. The idea that a bunch of countries that are having all kinds of problems with the Eurozone are suddenly going to try to forcibly recruit a country that doesn't want to join is ludicrously bonkers, but the voters don't know this, and the Leave campaign(s) would certainly claim it. I also think the other member states would agree to make an assurance like this, as they like it when problems go away, but it's not 100% certain.

    What it solves is getting an arrangement that doesn't blow up the economy into law. It's true that it doesn't solve the problem of getting people who disagree with each other about EU to stop arguing on the internet, but that's not a sensible or achievable goal, as the previous referendum should have shown.

    Personally I think it's incredibly unlikely that they would agree to it. We've been troublesome to their project for decades, and we're mucking them about something rotten at the moment. Frankly, I wouldn't blame them if they felt better off without us, especially as anything other than a stonking remain win would not staunch British euroscepticism.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291
    ydoethur said:

    Abstaining would be a politically astute move by Labour. It would please their supporters, keep the focus firmly on the Tory splits and allow them to get a pretty good deal which they could nevertheless slag off in usual hypocritical politician manner.

    We can therefore be fairly sure it won't happen.

    Abstaining is not defendable if they want to slag off the deal. The ideal for them was the Tories pass it thanks to 10 or so labour rebels. No deal avoided, Tories bitter, DUP furious, they could claim they would have gotten a better deal and remainers could believe labour would have remained.

    But the Tories are too divided.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 1,282
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Beeb says that 'Treasury to publish economic impact analysis'. The tone of the report suggests that publication is imminent, but there's no timescale.
    TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.

    Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.

    So you want a second referendum. By what route do we realistically get one?
    1) Parliament votes down deal
    2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
    3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
    4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
    5) Have referendum

    Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
    If Parliament passed the deal, there would be nothing to have a referendum on.
    It passes legislation saying the deal is subject to the referendum, silly
    A court has effectively ruled it can't do that, because it undermines Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Duh :smile:
    Can we have AV for elections, then?
    That was passed by Parliament (both houses) subject to a confirmatory referendum.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,286
    Poor old Philip Hammond. It's a crap deal but all the other deals are crappier.

    'Well why are you as custodian of the nations finances doing it? Because we can keep out foreigners which is what a majority of British people want us to do'

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 49,433
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Thompson, indeed, deliberately negotiating a terrible deal then presenting us with the choice of remaining after all or having something definitively worse was a course predicted by various people, at least one of whom is renowned for lacy menswear.

    That brings us to the interesting question of the question that might be posed by a second referendum. It's also why I think that May's Deal versus Remain is the way likeliest to result in us staying after all.

    A three way or two way vote could go in any direction. The British electorate are hard to call on this.
    Chuka Umunnna said he would support a 3 way referendum Remain, Deal or No Deal on Good Morning Britain
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,293
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:



    No Deal is what happens if we don't have a deal. This is the only deal on offer, therefore if it is voted down it is no deal. EEA and CU are not on the table and Remain is not in our gift.

    It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.

    This comment should be posted hourly. It covers 85% of what needs to be said at the moment.

    The other 15% relates to whether Remain would in fact be available and whether in fact Britain might get an extension to sort itself out.

    The rest is verbiage.
    Which is fine, but you also need to add that May's deal will be demolished by the Commons and isn't going to pass. Wishful thinking is the idea that MPs will be persuaded to see sense and back the deal and the PM.

    If the deal is deal, and no deal is a disaster, and the will is there to find a third way, then shockingly we're into classic EU deal territory, where it's always last minute. A deal will be done. Not a cakeist deal, an off the shelf deal that we could have had from the start. Rescinding A50 is one such option. "Not in our gift" is true. But as the EU want no deal as little as we do it would be a truly epic play on their part to deny the new UK government such a request.
    I can't see Macron making it all particularly easy for us
    Indeed, that is very much the plan, this FT article seems non paywalled:



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 38,291

    Mr. Thompson, indeed, deliberately negotiating a terrible deal then presenting us with the choice of remaining after all or having something definitively worse was a course predicted by various people, at least one of whom is renowned for lacy menswear.

    That brings us to the interesting question of the question that might be posed by a second referendum. It's also why I think that May's Deal versus Remain is the way likeliest to result in us staying after all.

    It was mainly predicted by people such as yourself, who routinely bat down any deal.

    And I'm unsure how you can claim she 'deliberately' negotiated a terrible deal.
    No one would. It's a conspiracy theory with no basis. She enjoys political turmoil? Come on. The most likely explanation is she negotiates as best she could, she's just not very good at it.
This discussion has been closed.