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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Can May win the ‘meaningful

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 29 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Can May win the ‘meaningful vote and what happens if she doesn’t?’

On this week’s podcast the Polling Matters team, including the returning Rob Vance, discuss evolving public opinion on May’s Brexit deal and what happens if she does not win the ‘meaningful vote’ next month.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Thirst
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,258
    Seconds away....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    Turd...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Rebeccah Long odds Bailey..
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,610
    Go forth and multiply
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,081
    Where does Tim Martin get his accent. If there's a less attractive one I haven't heard it.
  • sladeslade Posts: 662
    Lab hold in Failsworth, Lib Dem hold in Aylesbury.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,081
    Correction...excluding Long- Bailey
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    I must be off, but I am assuming Messrs Barasi , Pedley and Vance conclude that, no, May cannot win the meaningful vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    Roger said:

    Where does Tim Martin get his accent. If there's a less attractive one I haven't heard it.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,921
    Surely she'll have to call off the vote if it's clear a 200 vote defeat is likely.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,032
    AndyJS said:

    Surely she'll have to call off the vote if it's clear a 200 vote defeat is likely.

    I fear so.

    God knows what happens to fill the void.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    Condorcet first!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,921
    Roger said:

    Where does Tim Martin get his accent. If there's a less attractive one I haven't heard it.

    He reminds me a bit of the singer in this video:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=hchOYs_d_Bw
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    @Pulpstar (FPT)

    I'd argue your path weights are wrong. I'd go with the differences in percentages. Thus:

    4 (52-48): NoDeal>Remain
    12 (56-44): MayDeal>Remain
    16 (58-42): MayDeal>NoDeal

    Doesn't change the outcome though, since May's deal is the only one that doesn't lose any beatpaths:

    MayDeal>NoDeal 28 4 NoDeal>MayDeal
    MayDeal>Remain 28 4 Remain>MayDeal
    NoDeal>Remain 20 12 Remain>NoDeal

    May's deal is the Schulze winner.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Lol, "For Britain" chap.
  • sladeslade Posts: 662
    Con hold in Welwyn, Lib Dem hold in Oxfordshire with a huge swing.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,006
    edited November 29

    rpjs said:

    Remember the lack of preparedness of the German military.....

    To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.
    The take away here is, because the time zone difference is small, and despite any memories of the task force taking a long time to reach these parts, we tend to not realise quite how far away Buenos Aires is.

    As I stand by my globe, I can span London-Tokyo with my forefinger and thumb, if I span from Cape Town, I reach Paris, from Singapore I am approaching Munich. From Buenos Aires, I am still only off the Iberian North African Islands, specifically Madeira.

    It's not quite as far away as Bali, but not far off.

    That is a big tiring trip to make with May's current schedule - the legendary stamina of some PMs past would not go amiss.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    edited November 29

    @Pulpstar (FPT)

    I'd argue your path weights are wrong. I'd go with the differences in percentages. Thus:

    4 (52-48): NoDeal>Remain
    12 (56-44): MayDeal>Remain
    16 (58-42): MayDeal>NoDeal

    Doesn't change the outcome though, since May's deal is the only one that doesn't lose any beatpaths:

    MayDeal>NoDeal 28 4 NoDeal>MayDeal
    MayDeal>Remain 28 4 Remain>MayDeal
    NoDeal>Remain 20 12 Remain>NoDeal

    May's deal is the Schulze winner.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZIFUpz2SiCGiDKW0lyqj0V5uzMQbAApWlIbyrqMCMac/edit#gid=0 here's my working - I think I've missed out a subtration step you've done but the principle is the same.
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    FPT
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Grabcocque

    May's deal is the clear Schulze method winner. p[M,N] = 59; p[M,R] = 56; p[N,R] = 52. No other paths. Therefore M > N > R

    It is also the alternative vote winner. [R = 39, M = 33, N = 28] -> [M = 56, R = 44]

    Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    edited November 29
    AndyJS said:

    Surely she'll have to call off the vote if it's clear a 200 vote defeat is likely.

    Why? A loss is a loss. Absent a miracle a loss is already assured. It's still important for parliament to clearly reject it. Everyone should be clear where everyone stands, Mps are let off the hook if they never even formally vote it down.

    It's a farce if Mps don't even have to stand up and be counted on this, the only reasons for there not to have the vote have been political.

    And it achieves what? If the EU is going to renegotiate after all they would be fools not to want to know how parliament voted on the current offer.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    dixiedean said:

    OT. Just been for a days training on Universal Credit. Politics isn't over after Brexit. Slow Train Coming.

    So tell us what you learnt and why it’s a slow train coming.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Notch said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Grabcocque

    May's deal is the clear Schulze method winner. p[M,N] = 59; p[M,R] = 56; p[N,R] = 52. No other paths. Therefore M > N > R

    It is also the alternative vote winner. [R = 39, M = 33, N = 28] -> [M = 56, R = 44]

    Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?
    5/28 goes to R; 23/28 goes to M
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,159
    notme said:

    dixiedean said:

    OT. Just been for a days training on Universal Credit. Politics isn't over after Brexit. Slow Train Coming.

    So tell us what you learnt and why it’s a slow train coming.
    Will do tomorrow as I am off to bed. Some good, some bad. Will reveal all in the morning. Thanks for the interest. It is a slow train coming, as it will affect everyone on child or working tax credits. Pretty much the majority of working age people. It is a train as it is too far gone to turn round. It is slow, as managed migration has been postponed yet again.
    People don't like change.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    Notch said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Grabcocque

    May's deal is the clear Schulze method winner. p[M,N] = 59; p[M,R] = 56; p[N,R] = 52. No other paths. Therefore M > N > R

    It is also the alternative vote winner. [R = 39, M = 33, N = 28] -> [M = 56, R = 44]

    Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

    This is based on the pairwise preference in the Deltapolls published today. Remain beats MayDeal and NoDeal on a first preference basis, but MayDeal is the Condorcet winner (beats Remain and NoDeal), Remain is the Condorcet loser (Beaten by MayDeal and NoDeal).

    May's deal is also the AV winner, able to sneak through on second prefs.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    rpjs said:

    Remember the lack of preparedness of the German military.....

    To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.
    The take away here is, because the time zone difference is small, and despite any memories of the task force taking a long time to reach these parts, we tend to not realise quite how far away Buenos Aires is.

    As I stand by my globe, I can span London-Tokyo with my forefinger and thumb, if I span from Cape Town, I reach Paris, from Singapore I am approaching Munich. From Buenos Aires, I am still only off the Iberian North African Islands, specifically Madeira.

    It's not quite as far away as Bali, but not far off.

    That is a big tiring trip to make with May's current schedule - the legendary stamina of some PMs past would not go amiss.

    I did Heathrow to Buenos Aires with BA with a short service stop at Sao Paulo (we remained seated) - about 14 hours
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243

    Notch said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Grabcocque

    May's deal is the clear Schulze method winner. p[M,N] = 59; p[M,R] = 56; p[N,R] = 52. No other paths. Therefore M > N > R

    It is also the alternative vote winner. [R = 39, M = 33, N = 28] -> [M = 56, R = 44]

    Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

    This is based on the pairwise preference in the Deltapolls published today. Remain beats MayDeal and NoDeal on a first preference basis, but MayDeal is the Condorcet winner (beats Remain and NoDeal), Remain is the Condorcet loser (Beaten by MayDeal and NoDeal).

    May's deal is also the AV winner, able to sneak through on second prefs.
    We were using the Schulze method, but we don't need to. When there's no Condorcet cycles, the complexity of Schulze isn't needed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    In reality condorcet cycles are unlikely with only 3 options.
  • sladeslade Posts: 662
    slade said:

    Con hold in Welwyn, Lib Dem hold in Oxfordshire with a huge swing.

    The Lib Dem majority went from 68 to 675, The new councillor is the son of the Lib Dem MEP Catherine Bearder.
  • slade said:

    Con hold in Welwyn, Lib Dem hold in Oxfordshire with a huge swing.

    Those who, in the previous thread, doubted Layla Moran’s electoral appeal... may want to reconsider.

    (Yes I know Wheatley isn’t OxWAb, but she’s very much the figurehead for the local party.)
  • Condorcet first!

    Your Oxonian mind and MENSA level IQ makes me horny for FISH.
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    Pulpstar said:

    Notch said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Grabcocque

    May's deal is the clear Schulze method winner. p[M,N] = 59; p[M,R] = 56; p[N,R] = 52. No other paths. Therefore M > N > R

    It is also the alternative vote winner. [R = 39, M = 33, N = 28] -> [M = 56, R = 44]

    Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?
    5/28 goes to R; 23/28 goes to M
    Ah, sorry. I misread. 5/28 makes much more sense.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Labour really needs Brexit to move on or die or something. Their position is a nonsense on that but Corbynism has a real fire and passion with many other issues.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour really needs Brexit to move on or die or something. Their position is a nonsense on that but Corbynism has a real fire and passion with many other issues.

    When you hear some of the people calling for a No Deal Brexit you get the sense they really want a 'year zero' event domestically, never mind our relationship with the EU, so I can understand why Corbyn equivocates, but it's not leadership.
  • slade said:

    Con hold in Welwyn, Lib Dem hold in Oxfordshire with a huge swing.

    Those who, in the previous thread, doubted Layla Moran’s electoral appeal... may want to reconsider.

    (Yes I know Wheatley isn’t OxWAb, but she’s very much the figurehead for the local party.)
    I had an emergency refit of a filling there on my way from North Wales to Heathrow and on to Vancouver at the time of the election. The place was full of winning here lib dem signs
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,921

    @Pulpstar (FPT)

    I'd argue your path weights are wrong. I'd go with the differences in percentages. Thus:

    4 (52-48): NoDeal>Remain
    12 (56-44): MayDeal>Remain
    16 (58-42): MayDeal>NoDeal

    Doesn't change the outcome though, since May's deal is the only one that doesn't lose any beatpaths:

    MayDeal>NoDeal 28 4 NoDeal>MayDeal
    MayDeal>Remain 28 4 Remain>MayDeal
    NoDeal>Remain 20 12 Remain>NoDeal

    May's deal is the Schulze winner.

    You've lost me.
  • sladeslade Posts: 662
    Lib Dem gain in Stratford.
  • So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    Spouses should be working. We're not in the eighties any more.
  • sladeslade Posts: 662
    Con hold in Bromley.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    Spouses should be working. We're not in the eighties any more.
    The cultures of South Asia and Middle East where many of the non-EU migrants come from are not noted for their progressive feminist perspectives.
  • Roger said:

    Pretty shoddy of Corbyn to choose a commercial TV station over a nationalised one. I think it's an excuse because of Corbyn's famed iinability to grasp detail. He's hoping ITV's commercial breaks will give him time to dust himself down between rounds

    No - he doesn't want the debate at all. By opposing the BBC option, he is hoping it will just go away.

    His posturing on this has been infantile.
    Did they ask him about his favourite person in I'm a Celeb when he claimed he is lovin it on This Morning?
  • Remind me how many people have been prosecuted for FGM in this country.

    ' The number of girls in England who have experienced or are believed to be at risk of female genital mutilation (FGM) has more than doubled in a year, according to assessments by council social workers.

    Analysis of government figures shows that FGM featured in 1,960 social work assessments in 2017-18 – more than twice the 970 cases reported in the previous year.

    The figures were described as alarming by those working in the field, who said the increase was due mainly to better detection by social workers. Experts said the real incidence of FGM is likely to be far higher, however, as it remains a largely hidden crime. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/30/female-genital-mutilation-cases-more-than-double-in-a-year-in-uk
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,449
    edited November 30

    Tories take a 10% lead with YouGov

    twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1068298764014796800?s=21

    They must have only polled part time extras / ministers of online churches?

    How the hell have Labour lost 6% ? Jezza laying wreaths at terrorist ceremonies and finding Labour is overwhelmed with anti-semites didn't have that effect on their numbers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,258
    Gawd, don't tell Theresa May - else it's a January "my way or the highway" election!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,449
    edited November 30

    Gawd, don't tell Theresa May - else it's a January "my way or the highway" election!
    Quick we better get together our own version of the yellow jackets together to stop her driving to Wales for walk over the next few weeks.
  • Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
  • notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    That lot sums to 86%. Very low !

    What are May's PM ratings in this poll ?

    Combining this with the deltapoll, the backbenches would be mad to rebel like they're about to.
  • Interesting chart...it is Trumpian type division on the matter.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,258

    notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    Labour 36 would make more sense.... Or else the Greens must be soaring.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,062


    I think I speak for everyone when I say: uhhh, wot?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,159
    Pulpstar said:

    That lot sums to 86%. Very low !

    What are May's PM ratings in this poll ?

    Combining this with the deltapoll, the backbenches would be mad to rebel like they're about to.
    Indeed.Where is the 14% other? Greens gain Bootle?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Gawd, don't tell Theresa May - else it's a January "my way or the highway" election!
    Quick we better get together our own version of the yellow jackets together to stop her driving to Wales for walk over the next few weeks.
    Con gain Bootle?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
    Isn’t it something like 90% unemployment amongst Somalis?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 624
    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
    Isn’t it something like 90% unemployment amongst Somalis?
    no.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    I think what's happening is the 'people' are starting to smell a stitch up to keep us in the EU and they don't like it.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 624
    Andrew said:



    I think I speak for everyone when I say: uhhh, wot?
    Lol
  • Pulpstar said:

    That lot sums to 86%. Very low !

    What are May's PM ratings in this poll ?

    Combining this with the deltapoll, the backbenches would be mad to rebel like they're about to.
    No Leader ratings mentioned in the article.
  • sladeslade Posts: 662
    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in Stratford.

    Lib Dems go from 3rd to 1st - the Stratford First party might have been a front.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    Pulpstar said:

    I think what's happening is the 'people' are starting to smell a stitch up to keep us in the EU and they don't like it.

    YouGov/Times

    Support for the deal:
    Support: 27%
    Oppose 45%

    When asked to choose between Mrs May’s deal and staying in the EU, 43 per cent urged MPs to vote down the deal, even if it meant remaining, while 32 per cent said MPs should back her deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
    Isn’t it something like 90% unemployment amongst Somalis?
    It is low, but not that low.

    One paradox of Brexit will be the Browning of Britain though, as we suck in more non-EU migrants.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,364

    notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    I suspect so - otherwise you'd expect the Times to lead with the story.
  • notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    Labour 36 would make more sense.... Or else the Greens must be soaring.
    Labour 36%

    + 5% for SNP / PC
    +3% for Green

    would bring it to 100%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,258

    notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    I suspect so - otherwise you'd expect the Times to lead with the story.
    Agree, it looks highly suspect. If right, it would mean Labour's Brexit strategy is unravelling before our eyes....
  • Can someone sedate HYUFD before he sees this poll.
  • Pulpstar said:

    That lot sums to 86%. Very low !

    What are May's PM ratings in this poll ?

    Combining this with the deltapoll, the backbenches would be mad to rebel like they're about to.
    Given that the previous one only added up to 89%, this one adding up to 86% doesn't seem especially low.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,062
    Last YG was 39-36-8, UKIP4, Greens4, Nationalists4, Others1.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    Also from the Times:

    Among people who voted Leave in 2016:

    28 per cent said that MPs should reject the deal even if it meant continued EU membership
    48 per cent said that they should back it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635

    Pulpstar said:

    That lot sums to 86%. Very low !

    What are May's PM ratings in this poll ?

    Combining this with the deltapoll, the backbenches would be mad to rebel like they're about to.
    Given that the previous one only added up to 89%, this one adding up to 86% doesn't seem especially low.
    Checked, the 2015 GE four parties summed to 89 (With a rampant SNP). 2017 was over 90.

    30 is a really poor score for Labour though.

    The problem is whether you're a May dealer, No dealer or remainer their position is a nonsense.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
    They have done so up to now.

    But if we're seeing a shift in the type of EU migrants then that could quickly change.

    And lets be honest - outside of menial agricultural labour and tax credit farming there's not much demand for the skillset of many Eastern Europeans.

    More detailed information on who is migrating to the UK and for what purpose is required.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,921
    Someone needs to do a fact check on those figures.
  • Do polling companies still publish the data sheets for their political polls ?

    They always used to be to linked to on PB but I can't remember any for quite a while.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
    They have done so up to now.

    But if we're seeing a shift in the type of EU migrants then that could quickly change.

    And lets be honest - outside of menial agricultural labour and tax credit farming there's not much demand for the skillset of many Eastern Europeans.

    More detailed information on who is migrating to the UK and for what purpose is required.
    And UC is putting an end to tax credit farming.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635


    More detailed information on who is migrating to the UK and for what purpose is required.

    Well quite. The Gov't should know who on earth is coming in and break it down into some nice bar charts of nurses, doctors, teachers, engineers etc.
  • Can someone sedate HYUFD before he sees this poll.

    Favourite comment so far this week
  • ‪Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%‬

  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,780

    ‪Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%‬

    Corrections and clarifications.... :o
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    ‪Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%‬

    Which is still a staggeringly good poll for tories.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,031
    Kerching!

    I think I was the only one on this site betting the A50 time would be extended.
  • Always said Liam Fox was a top chap with impeccable judgment.

    Liam Fox will follow Andrea Leadsom in endorsing Theresa May’s Brexit deal today, saying that her opponents do not have the “luxury” of an alternative plan.

    The trade secretary will back Mrs May’s plan in a speech in the southwest that coincides with a YouGov poll for The Times suggesting that there has been a sharp rise in people who favour her compromise over a no-deal Brexit. However, more than a quarter of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 want MPs to reject the prime minister’s deal, even if it means remaining in the EU.

    Dr Fox will use his speech to argue that Brexiteers must make tough choices. “The deal we’ve reached will give us a firm and stable base on which to leave the EU and build this country’s global future, a future that still encompasses Europe, of course, but also the wide fast-growing markets beyond, with all the opportunity that entails,” he says.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-we-don-t-have-luxury-of-a-better-deal-says-fox-as-he-falls-in-line-mvfml083n
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,062

    ‪Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%‬

    Ok, phew. I was having trouble coming up with anything that didn't have Lord Buckethead taking 3 points off Labour.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    rcs1000 said:

    Kerching!

    I think I was the only one on this site betting the A50 time would be extended.
    I have a certain bet with SeanT that we won't have left by the end of 2019.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So has PB come up with ideas as to how there were over 300 thousand more immigrants in the year to June 2018 yet the number of immigrants in work fell during that period ?

    More children and non working spouses.
    I agree that is part of the issue.

    But weren't we told that immigrants came to this country to work and didn't use public services or claim benefits ?

    Using my supermarket viewing as a guide the number of 'Poles' in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined.

    But there's been a big increase in multi-generational families who look like the peasants Bela Lugosi used to terrorise.
    EU migrants have very high employment rates, non-EU, less so.
    They have done so up to now.

    But if we're seeing a shift in the type of EU migrants then that could quickly change.

    And lets be honest - outside of menial agricultural labour and tax credit farming there's not much demand for the skillset of many Eastern Europeans.

    More detailed information on who is migrating to the UK and for what purpose is required.
    Western European migrants have high employment and high wages. Eastern ones have high employment and low wages.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,686
    Still a pretty good YouGov for Con.

    7 council by-elections tonight - the Con vote share rose in 6 of them. Does suggest Con support solid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,780
    MikeL said:

    Still a pretty good YouGov for Con.

    7 council by-elections tonight - the Con vote share rose in 6 of them. Does suggest Con support solid.

    Strong and stable, perhaps?

    *get coat*
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Polling for both the deal and the Tories has risen as May has stressed the deal controls immigration. May is trusted on the issue and Corbyn is not. The issue has fallen away as an issue as people felt confident it was sorted when we voted to leave the EU. Now people are pushing to stay in again, concern is rising.

    May should go for the kill against Labour on this.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 5,755
    MikeL said:

    Still a pretty good YouGov for Con.

    7 council by-elections tonight - the Con vote share rose in 6 of them. Does suggest Con support solid.

    Yougov has been giving the Tories a lead of 2% - 7% for several months , and has been somewhat out of line with other pollsters. Maybe a house effect.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,754
    edited November 30
    OT Google has a St Andrew's Day doodle. The Standard magazine has a piece on the Conservative centrist group Onward (apparently English for En Marche) which is based in the same building as Labour's Progress.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/esmagazine/new-tory-reformers-a4001661.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088

    notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    I suspect so - otherwise you'd expect the Times to lead with the story.
    Typo. But might be the figure when the young find out their hero is a Leaving eurosceptic and they stop putting their fingers in their ears.


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,222
    notme said:

    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
    Indeed. God forbid the Parliament of the United Kingdom should actually make a decision for once.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    viewcode said:

    notme said:

    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
    Indeed. God forbid the Parliament of the United Kingdom should actually make a decision for once.
    The Government has done, but the issue is Labour are voting down any deal.
This discussion has been closed.