Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
I don't agree May wont resign. She hasn't because her deal has not been rejected officially. Lose by150 or 200 and she is no longer the most likely to see any new action through. Someone else has a better chance of attempting to get tweaks. It might not be possible but parliament will have demanded it. As she will no longer be the best person to try to take it forward she might qui then.
As odd as it may seem she has had a reason to stay on, a small part to success. That won't be the case soon so it would be time.
There will be no tweaks and certainly none to satisfy the ERG.
For the umpteenth time the EU have made clear it is this Deal or No Deal. End of conversation. There is no other Deal available without permanent Customs Union and/or permanent Single Market
For the umpteenth time I believe you. But Mps will act based on what they believe not what you or I believe, even if that means they attempt something pointless.
You cannot assume mps will act in ways based on premises they don't believe. They mostly think there are changes to be made. They will accordingly no matter how wrong you think they are.
So what the EU will not change. So that means either May calls a referendum including the Deal or the economic disaster of No Deal or Corbyn becomes PM and permanent Customs Union
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
That is why she leads Labour by 5 % in the last Year poll I guess.
She led by 20% at the start of the election campaign and lost her majority. 5% without boundary changes is nothing.
May got about the 42% she had at the start of the campaign, just Corbyn squeezed minor parties
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
The name recognition of being party leader is always important. May is a proven failure and loser. I doubt Westminister will tolerate No Deal but it is May’s negligence and gross dereliction in failing to prepare for it which will be responsible for any initial chaos if we do get No Deal. If we end up with no Brexit,which includes staying in the Customs Union and Single Market, then it doesn’t matter who the Tories appoint to replace her. They will lose the next election big time.
I've never voted Labour before, but Mann is a strong minded almost independent MP that listens. If Boris takes the clown cart with the Tories I'll give it some serious thought.
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
That is why she leads Labour by 5 % in the last Year poll I guess.
She led by 20% at the start of the election campaign and lost her majority. 5% without boundary changes is nothing.
May got about the 42% she had at the start of the campaign, just Corbyn squeezed minor parties
Only because of a revival in Scotland. That won’t happen next time whereas Corbyn will make more gains in the South and West Midlands.
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
The name recognition of being party leader is always important. May is a proven failure and loser. I doubt Westminister will tolerate No Deal but it is May’s negligence and gross dereliction in failing to prepare for it which will be responsible for any initial chaos if we do get No Deal. If we end up with no Brexit,which includes staying in the Customs Union and Single Market, then it doesn’t matter who the Tories appoint to replace her. They will lose the next election big time.
I suspect there will be something called Brexit that most people will initially regard as Brexit. Whether they continue to do so as it starts working is a very different question...
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Sky announced this morning the government will publish the legal summary and the Attorney General will address the HOC. They will not publish all the legal advice due to confidentiality issues and Sky indicate that the process for contempt is long involving committees and is unlikely to result in anything for the government to worry about
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is m May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
The name recognition of being party leader is always important. May is a proven failure and loser. I doubt Westminister will tolerate No Deal but it is May’s negligence and gross dereliction in failing to prepare for it which will be responsible for any initial chaos if we do get No Deal. If we end up with no Brexit,which includes staying in the Customs Union and Single Market, then it doesn’t matter who the Tories appoint to replace her. They will lose the next election big time.
Now hold on a minute. I bow to no one in my low estimation of Theresa May but the British Public have, whether they like it or not, been reeled in by Ken Clarke's BDW comment. That is how they see her and the more they see loons like the DUP, Jacob and your cometh the hour guy David Davis, the more they will realise she is the only game in town.
And given the shall we say febrile atmostphere in the country at the moment, it would be a brave MP to go against the wishes of their constituencies (not including their Associations as that won't not get them not elected at the next GE, whenever it is).
Okay, if her deal fails, she has I think the following options: 1) resign 2) try to renegotiate a new deal 3) call for a GE to back her deal 4) call for a second referendum to back her deal in some form or 5) come out for hard brexit.
1) feels unlikely, 2) difficult to know what she could achieve if anything, but this would seem to be the logical next step, 3) possible, but short of a landslide or somehow changing Tory MP votes I don't know that this helps 4) Unclear how it passes parliament, what the wording would be, many other problems... 5) I think parliament/her party would get rid of her.
I don't understand though how her whips have so miscalculated. They must have thought they could get this deal through parliament, so how can there be 80+ Tory MPs opposed?
I think TM fully understands that the vote is lost and she will call a GE - assuming she can find a way to get past the FTPA. Candidates with comments on social media disliking her deal have been dropped. The manifesto will explicitly support her deal adding pressure to her MPs to be compliant. She can call Labour and the SNP wreckers. She rolls the dice to try and alter the maths and escape DUP influence.
I don’t know if she could be stopped from doing this by a leadership challenge. I suspect the whips will pressure the 1922 committee to alter their rules to say that a GE has precedence.
If she can’t get past the FTPA as has been suggested here then she’ll rely on goading the DUP to support the opposition parties to pass a VONC.
It all comes down to whether her MPs want her or not.
As for the next leader, if Brexit isn’t done then it has to be a firm leaver in charge or Leave voters will always feel betrayed. Not sure who would do it though.
If there is one thing that unites the Tory party, wet to social conservative, remainer to hard-Brexiteer, it is a determination that May won’t lead us into another election campaign.
As for the next leader, if Brexit isn’t done then it has to be a firm leaver in charge or Leave voters will always feel betrayed. Not sure who would do it though.
It has to be Boris. The next GE is going to be an oiled up, popper snorting orgy of populist nonsense where anything and everything is promised. Corbyn absolutely excels at that and the tories need to fight fire with fire.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
Leadership isn’t about polls.
The other consideration is that the next leader won’t necessarily be the leader at the next election.
I think Old Cardinals are the more obvious successors than Hunt or Javid. Hague, Howard and Lilly are all outside contenders in the Lords.
As for the next leader, if Brexit isn’t done then it has to be a firm leaver in charge or Leave voters will always feel betrayed. Not sure who would do it though.
It has to be Boris. The next GE is going to be an oiled up, popper snorting orgy of populist nonsense where anything and everything is promised. Corbyn absolutely excels at that and the tories need to fight fire with fire.
If it is Boris - a man to whom detail is something you don't need to worry about I will spoil my vote...
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
Tbh BigG, I think corbyn is the reason why we’re ahead in the polls.
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Sky announced this morning the government will publish the legal summary and the Attorney General will address the HOC. They will not publish all the legal advice due to confidentiality issues and Sky indicate that the process for contempt is long involving committees and is unlikely to result in anything for the government to worry about
If Bercow decides to push this then he will get massive push back from all Tory MPs most of whom want him gone... He could then become the target and a lot of crud that many have on him and his relationships with certain MPs such as VAZ could be plastered all over the front pages of newspapers again. He has to tread carefully from what im hearing.
If the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland did not know that nationalists and unionists voted for different parties, then it is hardly surprising the government also failed to realise the new hard border the DUP objected to was not the one with Ireland (covered by GFA) but the one down the Irish Sea.
To repeat my assertion from the other day: the GFA with its provision for a referendum on a United Ireland is a far greater threat to the unionists than the May deal; their goal is to bring an end to the GFA by bringing to a head the border issue as part of a no deal, global trading, post-crash out scenario. Brexit is a means to an end for the DUP
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
You should have told May that in June 2017. Might have won some money. To complacent imo.
As for the next leader, if Brexit isn’t done then it has to be a firm leaver in charge or Leave voters will always feel betrayed. Not sure who would do it though.
It has to be Boris. The next GE is going to be an oiled up, popper snorting orgy of populist nonsense where anything and everything is promised. Corbyn absolutely excels at that and the tories need to fight fire with fire.
I believe that the main function of poppers is to relax the sphincter muscles. That GE scenario certainly has that effect.
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
Leadership isn’t about polls.
The other consideration is that the next leader won’t necessarily be the leader at the next election.
I think Old Cardinals are the more obvious successors than Hunt or Javid. Hague, Howard and Lilly are all outside contenders in the Lords.
The only way I see TM leading into a GE is if one happens almost overnight. I hope she achieves brexit in march and in late spring opens a leadership campaign for her successor in the normal way.
I do not support her beyond brexit but if she does not achieve brexit , than no one will
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
You should have told May that in June 2017. Might have won some money. To complacent imo.
Mike won a lot of money at that election, he memorably sold the Tories at circa 398.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
On UK polling report it had Labour on 41% Conservatives on 40% with Survation in the latest poll. Is that correct ?
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Sky announced this morning the government will publish the legal summary and the Attorney General will address the HOC. They will not publish all the legal advice due to confidentiality issues and Sky indicate that the process for contempt is long involving committees and is unlikely to result in anything for the government to worry about
If Bercow decides to push this then he will get massive push back from all Tory MPs most of whom want him gone... He could then become the target and a lot of crud that many have on him and his relationships with certain MPs such as VAZ could be plastered all over the front pages of newspapers again. He has to tread carefully from what im hearing.
Most Tory MPs probably like Bercow who supports backbenchers over the executive. The government does not like the Speaker, that is true, but even that is more a hangover from Cameron's premiership. But you are probably right that HMG might decide to move against Bercow, if only as a distraction.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
On UK polling report it had Labour on 41% Conservatives on 40% with Survation in the latest poll. Is that correct ?
I think 3 or 4 of the last 4 or 5 polls have had Labour ahead. A bit less interest in those ones for some reason...
Edit: I think I can remember 2 before the Survation and YouGov ones anyway but I'm not 100%
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Sky announced this morning the government will publish the legal summary and the Attorney General will address the HOC. They will not publish all the legal advice due to confidentiality issues and Sky indicate that the process for contempt is long involving committees and is unlikely to result in anything for the government to worry about
If Bercow decides to push this then he will get massive push back from all Tory MPs most of whom want him gone... He could then become the target and a lot of crud that many have on him and his relationships with certain MPs such as VAZ could be plastered all over the front pages of newspapers again. He has to tread carefully from what im hearing.
Most Tory MPs probably like Bercow who supports backbenchers over the executive. The government does not like the Speaker, that is true, but even that is more a hangover from Cameron's premiership. But you are probably right that HMG might decide to move against Bercow, if only as a distraction.
This is a nice preview of the dirty tricks the government and whips will be employing to try to get this vote through. I hope that nobody trusts their pair, and there's plenty of parking space for ambulances in front of the HoC
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.
Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
Given no alternative leader polls any better than May and most poll worse and the Deal is the only offer on the table from the EU if the ERG force May out and end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too then that is up to them
Leadership isn’t about polls.
The other consideration is that the next leader won’t necessarily be the leader at the next election.
I think Old Cardinals are the more obvious successors than Hunt or Javid. Hague, Howard and Lilly are all outside contenders in the Lords.
Peter Lilley can fuck right off.
He’s one of those no deal is awesome chaps.
He thinks the economy will improve massively on WTO terms.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
On UK polling report it had Labour on 41% Conservatives on 40% with Survation in the latest poll. Is that correct ?
I think 3 or 4 of the last 4 or 5 polls have had Labour ahead. A bit less interest in those ones for some reason...
Edit: I think I can remember 2 before the Survation and YouGov ones anyway but I'm not 100%
Weird. When they backed HYUFD up they were the gold standard based on the bulletproof logic that their final poll was closest last time.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
Thanks for the laughs. “TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls......” is one of the best jokes I’ve read for a while.
She is the only reason Labour is within touching distance of the Tories in the polls, she is that incompetent. Against an economically illiterate Labour leadership, dogged by scandals over anti semitism, misogyny and dubious friends abroad, even a half competent Tory leader would be out of sight of Labour. May’s incompetence is making Labour look credible.
Anecdote Alert.. On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
Against an economically illiterate Labour leadership, dogged by scandals over anti semitism, misogyny and dubious friends abroad, even a half competent Tory leader would be out of sight of Labour.
Against an economically illiterate Labour leadership, dogged by scandals over anti semitism, misogyny and dubious friends abroad, even a half competent Tory leader would be out of sight of Labour.
Only if they ditched Brexit.
That would make the Tories totally unelectable for a generation.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
Tbh BigG, I think corbyn is the reason why we’re ahead in the polls.
I think it is both. TM has become more respected over brexit and Corbyn is of course an issue
They are. They won’t support the Tories in a VONC if Starmer/Corbyn tables one.
Have they said that (I may have missed it)? Otherwise I’d assume they will vote against the deal but still vote confidence because that way they keep their hostage in number 10 and their casting vote leverage in place. It’s only if the deal looks like getting through that they would vote no confidence as a way of stopping it.
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
On UK polling report it had Labour on 41% Conservatives on 40% with Survation in the latest poll. Is that correct ?
You gov this weekend was 40/35/10/6 to the conservatives
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Anecdote Alert.. On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
To whom are/were the Association supposed to deliver them?
Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.
David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.
I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.
David Davis? Really?
I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.
If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
You do talk nonsense. TM is the only reason the conservatives are still ahead in the polls and the most popular politician to handle brexit
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
Tbh BigG, I think corbyn is the reason why we’re ahead in the polls.
I think it is both. TM has become more respected over brexit and Corbyn is of course an issue
It’s not clear whether May has become more respected or more pitied - we like an underdog who’s doing a difficult job badly, but not necessarily enough to vote for them if given the choice.
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Yes I agree.
He needs to come out for the referendum and be honest. He is a remainer through and through
Anecdote Alert.. On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
To whom are/were the Association supposed to deliver them?
Residents via their delivery network..we wouldnt have a delivery network if we asked people to deliver those.
Why? Most Tory voters are Brexiteers. Even more so their membership.
Even if that is true, I suspect they are of the "Brexit will be brilliant" persuasion.
When it's not, I am not convinced they will maintain their enthusiasm
I want to vote for the Party least likely to completely fuck things up. That used to be the Tories, but they sacrificed all pretence of competence on the altar of Brexit.
If the DUP withdraws C&S but abstains in a VONC, that still leaves the Tories with a nominal (although not practicably workable) majority, provided the ERG don't decide to go nuclear.
Enough to survive one VONC, although the government would be very at the mercy of ambushes and events.
Practically, for the government to function, it will need to find a way to get C&S from somewhere else. Either buying off Labour, or making an offer they can't refuse to the SNP or the LDs. I can't imagine what they'd offer though.
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Yes I agree.
Nah, he's a functionary, a man in a grey suit. He's loyal chancellor material, not PM.
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Yes I agree.
Well, he's had a 'proper' job (well almost..... he's a lawyer) He hasn't much if any political back-story.
Why? Most Tory voters are Brexiteers. Even more so their membership.
Even if that is true, I suspect they are of the "Brexit will be brilliant" persuasion.
When it's not, I am not convinced they will maintain their enthusiasm
I want to vote for the Party least likely to completely fuck things up. That used to be the Tories, but they sacrificed all pretence of competence on the altar of Brexit.
There's no 'if'. I'm sure you can find the polling results if you exert even a minimal effort.
It's never been the electorate's nature to blame themselves when things go wrong. I might even agree with you if it were not for JC's Labour. My best guess is that if Brexit goes pear shaped, then rather than voting elsewhere, the turnout at the next election will simply be lower than normal. That might be enough to let Labour through *shrug*.
Anecdote Alert.. On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
To whom are/were the Association supposed to deliver them?
That would make the Tories totally unelectable for a generation.
So will Brexit
Why? Most Tory voters are Brexiteers. Even more so their membership.
Most voters for the conservatives are not brexiteers, The membership yes
I don't think that's true, Big G.
Certainly Tory members and activists are much more forthright in their Euroscepticism, but I think Tory voters were still very Brexit-horny. YouGov tells us that Conservative voters voted to Leave by a ratio of 61 to 39:
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Yes I agree.
He needs to come out for the referendum and be honest. He is a remainer through and through
Agreed he is working to that , within the constraints of his present position. That is my take on it.
John McDonnell has moved in that direction. So eventually will Corbyn.
May will also roll the dice, once her deal is defeated in parliament. Why else would.she be a asking for debates and meeting members of the public. Whatever she say now , she is a serial liar. So if a referendum is required to save her deal , she will approve it.
Anecdote Alert.. On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
To whom are/were the Association supposed to deliver them?
Anecdote Alert.. On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
To whom are/were the Association supposed to deliver them?
That would make the Tories totally unelectable for a generation.
So will Brexit
Why? Most Tory voters are Brexiteers. Even more so their membership.
Most voters for the conservatives are not brexiteers, The membership yes
That's simply wrong. Polls, and my own GE2017 analysis showed a definite correlation with the Tory vote and Brexit support.
Brexiteer and leaving the EU are not the same. Time has moved Brexiteers to the ultra right in the party and crashing out on WTO. Most conservatives do not want that result
That would make the Tories totally unelectable for a generation.
So will Brexit
Why? Most Tory voters are Brexiteers. Even more so their membership.
Most voters for the conservatives are not brexiteers, The membership yes
That's simply wrong. Polls, and my own GE2017 analysis showed a definite correlation with the Tory vote and Brexit support.
Brexiteer and leaving the EU are not the same. Time has moved Brexiteers to the ultra right in the party and crashing out on WTO. Most conservatives do not want that result
Interesting thought experiment though. In order to replace the lost DUP C&S, what could May offer the other parties to get them on board
1) Lib Dems - PR 2) SNP - further Scottish devolution, Indyref2 3) Labour - permanent customs union, workers rights enshrined in Pol Dec.
?
They have very small numbers but has anyone thought about Plaid Cymru?
The new leader comes across as less left wing than the old one, I think he said something about being willing to work with the Tories to get Labour out of power in Wales.
Only 4 votes but that might be enough to make the math work.
Edit: Probably less painful for them to work with the Tories than any other party, although it could cost PC in anti Tory areas in future.
They were opposed to the Good Friday Agreement too. Didn't stop them cosying up with Sinn Fein in office afterwards. They are tough negotiators from their position of local strength, but I wonder how much they understand about "Europe".
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Yes I agree.
He needs to come out for the referendum and be honest. He is a remainer through and through
Agreed he is working to that , within the constraints of his present position. That is my take on it.
John McDonnell has moved in that direction. So eventually will Corbyn.
May will also roll the dice, once her deal is defeated in parliament. Why else would.she be a asking for debates and meeting members of the public. Whatever she say now , she is a serial liar. So if a referendum is required to save her deal , she will approve it.
Serial liar is a bit strong for you.
You could direct that at many other politicians
I am very concerned about another referendum but it may be the only way to resolve the issue. However, the Country would need to be ready for a divisive and nasty campaign with the EU coming under bitter attack from some. The only hope is that it would provide a clear result
Interesting thought experiment though. In order to replace the lost DUP C&S, what could May offer the other parties to get them on board
1) Lib Dems - PR 2) SNP - further Scottish devolution, Indyref2 3) Labour - permanent customs union, workers rights enshrined in Pol Dec.
?
They have very small numbers but has anyone thought about Plaid Cymru?
The new leader comes across as less left wing than the old one, I think he said something about being willing to work with the Tories to get Labour out of power in Wales.
Only 4 votes but that might be enough to make the math work.
May could offer an indyref to Wales. It'd be highly unlikely to pass (I know, I know)
That would make the Tories totally unelectable for a generation.
So will Brexit
Why? Most Tory voters are Brexiteers. Even more so their membership.
Most voters for the conservatives are not brexiteers, The membership yes
That's simply wrong. Polls, and my own GE2017 analysis showed a definite correlation with the Tory vote and Brexit support.
Brexiteer and leaving the EU are not the same. Time has moved Brexiteers to the ultra right in the party and crashing out on WTO. Most conservatives do not want that result
I'd frame that as "Brexit" and ultras.
I would agree. For me I agree with Brexit but not WTO
It was Freedom of Movement and the ending of it that won the referendum, hardly chilling
Yes it was, that's the chilling bit.
Blatant Xenophobia won the referendum. Only the idiots are cheering.
All caused by Blair opening the door in 2004, what happened here is exactly what is happening in Germany at the moment. You cannot change whole areas and not expect a backlash.
Starmer coming over really well in all of this and could be a coalescing individual in the not too distant future. Im a Tory but could imagine him leading the labour party and a lot of people voting for him.
Yes I agree.
He needs to come out for the referendum and be honest. He is a remainer through and through
Agreed he is working to that , within the constraints of his present position. That is my take on it.
John McDonnell has moved in that direction. So eventually will Corbyn.
May will also roll the dice, once her deal is defeated in parliament. Why else would.she be a asking for debates and meeting members of the public. Whatever she say now , she is a serial liar. So if a referendum is required to save her deal , she will approve it.
She or someone else will. Or there will be a GE. There will be a public vote soon in one form or another, probably a referendum. Perhaps there will be both. Everything is leading up to this.
Comments
Whether they continue to do so as it starts working is a very different question...
And given the shall we say febrile atmostphere in the country at the moment, it would be a brave MP to go against the wishes of their constituencies (not including their Associations as that won't not get them not elected at the next GE, whenever it is).
conservative, remainer to hard-Brexiteer, it is a determination that May won’t lead us into another election campaign.
You gov this weekend gave the conservatives a 5% lead over labour with a possible majority of 10
Indeed, suggesting Davis as her successor indicates a lack of awareness of just how useless he is
The other consideration is that the next leader won’t necessarily be the leader at the next election.
I think Old Cardinals are the more obvious successors than Hunt or Javid. Hague, Howard and Lilly are all outside contenders in the Lords.
'The two biggest beasts'.
Sad.
He could then become the target and a lot of crud that many have on him and his relationships with certain MPs such as VAZ could be plastered all over the front pages of newspapers again. He has to tread carefully from what im hearing.
Presumably you expect him on day one of his premiership to jet off to Berlin to sort out Brexit...
Might have won some money.
To complacent imo.
I do not support her beyond brexit but if she does not achieve brexit , than no one will
Is that correct ?
They are. They won’t support the Tories in a VONC if Starmer/Corbyn tables one.
Edit: I think I can remember 2 before the Survation and YouGov ones anyway but I'm not 100%
He’s one of those no deal is awesome chaps.
He thinks the economy will improve massively on WTO terms.
She is the only reason Labour is within touching distance of the Tories in the polls, she is that incompetent. Against an economically illiterate Labour leadership, dogged by scandals over anti semitism, misogyny and dubious friends abroad, even a half competent Tory leader would be out of sight of Labour. May’s incompetence is making Labour look credible.
On Saturday loads of boxes of the governments position on Brexit that CCHQ want delivered to the constituency were delivered. Our Federation executive agreed unanimously not to deliver them despite threats from Central office..what are they going to do?
I suspect the general election announcement would come on Boxing Day..
But I stand to be corrected!
http://www.digitalspy.com/tv/im-a-celebrity/news/a871833/im-a-celebrity-declan-donnelly-pizza/
How do the numbers look then ? If they vote against the Gov't is obviously toast.
When it's not, I am not convinced they will maintain their enthusiasm
I want to vote for the Party least likely to completely fuck things up. That used to be the Tories, but they sacrificed all pretence of competence on the altar of Brexit.
Enough to survive one VONC, although the government would be very at the mercy of ambushes and events.
Practically, for the government to function, it will need to find a way to get C&S from somewhere else. Either buying off Labour, or making an offer they can't refuse to the SNP or the LDs. I can't imagine what they'd offer though.
It's never been the electorate's nature to blame themselves when things go wrong. I might even agree with you if it were not for JC's Labour. My best guess is that if Brexit goes pear shaped, then rather than voting elsewhere, the turnout at the next election will simply be lower than normal. That might be enough to let Labour through *shrug*.
1) Lib Dems - PR
2) SNP - further Scottish devolution, Indyref2
3) Labour - permanent customs union, workers rights enshrined in Pol Dec.
?
Certainly Tory members and activists are much more forthright in their Euroscepticism, but I think Tory voters were still very Brexit-horny. YouGov tells us that Conservative voters voted to Leave by a ratio of 61 to 39:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
That is my take on it.
John McDonnell has moved in that direction. So eventually will Corbyn.
May will also roll the dice, once her deal is defeated in parliament.
Why else would.she be a asking for debates and meeting members of the public.
Whatever she say now , she is a serial liar.
So if a referendum is required to save her deal , she will approve it.
Blatant Xenophobia won the referendum. Only the idiots are cheering.
They're the extremists, as the increasingly fevered rantings of the ERGers show. Neither is anybody who threatened to move over to UKIP 'loyal'.
The new leader comes across as less left wing than the old one, I think he said something about being willing to work with the Tories to get Labour out of power in Wales.
Only 4 votes but that might be enough to make the math work.
Edit: Probably less painful for them to work with the Tories than any other party, although it could cost PC in anti Tory areas in future.
Their preferred PM might be Michael Gove.
You could direct that at many other politicians
I am very concerned about another referendum but it may be the only way to resolve the issue. However, the Country would need to be ready for a divisive and nasty campaign with the EU coming under bitter attack from some. The only hope is that it would provide a clear result