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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Geoffrey Cox for next CON leader? He’s head and shoulders abov

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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    There's a delay in the aye lobby.

    Ooh matron.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Government lose by 18
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319
    I see Woodcock voted with the Tories (he's suspended already so I suppose Labour can't deselect him), but most of DUP and two Tories voted with the Opposition.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Motion carries 311 to 293.

    Government held in contempt.
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    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Blimey, at this rate May's administration isn't going to make it to the vote
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    While normally I think that a debate between leaders should be on BBC first and foremost the BBC do seem to have come up with a ludicrous proposal. ITV's actsully sounds like a proper debate.

    I agree. Head to head. Both should be worried. But May's team will be more worried than Corbyn's.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    I see Woodcock voted with the Tories (he's suspended already so I suppose Labour can't deselect him), but most of DUP and two Tories voted with the Opposition.

    Who are the Tories?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Motion carries 311 to 293.

    Government held in contempt.

    I thought that was decided by the committee, and not the house?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    Motion carries 311 to 293.

    Government held in contempt.

    I thought that was decided by the committee, and not the house?
    The motion to refer it to the committee was defeated.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
    After the last 3 years, PM Ed Milliband and CoE Ed Balls looks a missed opportunity for government that is merely amusing rather than the current lot doing slapstick on the edge of a cliff.
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    Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, asks a point of order. What can be done to ensure the full legal advice is published?

    Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, says the full legal advice will be published. But she has also asked the privileges committee to investigate the issues that arise from this.


    Guardian
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    Motion carries 311 to 293.

    Government held in contempt.

    I thought that was decided by the committee, and not the house?
    The motion to refer it to the committee was defeated.
    Ah, thanks.
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    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Leadsom says the legal advice will be published tomorrow.

    She looks deflated and humiliated.
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    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
    After the last 3 years, PM Ed Milliband and CoE Ed Balls looks a missed opportunity for government that is merely amusing rather than the current lot doing slapstick on the edge of a cliff.
    The economy is sailing along, merrily, and most people are getting a yoy pay rise and lower petrol prices.

    Its only us political anoraks that remember all the little crises.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
    After the last 3 years, PM Ed Milliband and CoE Ed Balls looks a missed opportunity for government that is merely amusing rather than the current lot doing slapstick on the edge of a cliff.
    This is in the context of the referendum. Now of course Lab wouldn't have offered a referendum but not to have done so would have been less democratic given the 4m who had effectively been disenfranchised.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    I'm increasingly leaning towards the theory that the Chief Whip has lost control of the PCP.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
    After the last 3 years, PM Ed Milliband and CoE Ed Balls looks a missed opportunity for government that is merely amusing rather than the current lot doing slapstick on the edge of a cliff.
    But that wasn't the choice. You are confusing 2015 with 2017. If (heaven forbade, thank goodness) we'd had the dire spectacle of Ed Miliband as PM, that would not have made the referendum go away, it would merely have delayed it. And in any case, a lot of the present problems are precisely because it's a hung parliament. Why on earth would a Miliband minority government have been any better?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited December 2018
    Mortimer said:

    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    I'm increasingly leaning towards the theory that the Chief Whip has lost control of the PCP.
    If that was the case why is he always so happy!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    What a lot of political capital spent defending an indefensible position. And what a warning shot!
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    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    Well, they only lost (on their amendment) by 4. We may understand better when we have seen the advice: that legal advice should be privileged seems to be a principle worth defending, especially in the context of a negotiation.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Why suffer the humiliation, and then publish?

    They could have avoided this by publishing yesterday.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
    After the last 3 years, PM Ed Milliband and CoE Ed Balls looks a missed opportunity for government that is merely amusing rather than the current lot doing slapstick on the edge of a cliff.
    But that wasn't the choice. You are confusing 2015 with 2017. If (heaven forbade, thank goodness) we'd had the dire spectacle of Ed Miliband as PM, that would not have made the referendum go away, it would merely have delayed it.
    He could not have done worse than Cameron.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578

    Leadsom says the legal advice will be published tomorrow.

    She looks deflated and humiliated.

    But she IS a mother!
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    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    Well, they only lost (on their amendment) by 4. We may understand better when we have seen the advice: that legal advice should be privileged seems to be a principle worth defending, especially in the context of a negotiation.
    I am minded (and this is a rarity) to give the Government the benefit of the doubt on this one.

    But we shall see.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Why suffer the humiliation, and then publish?

    They could have avoided this by publishing yesterday.

    Because May is surrounded by people telling her she can win.

    She has ZERO idea what's going on.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    While normally I think that a debate between leaders should be on BBC first and foremost the BBC do seem to have come up with a ludicrous proposal. ITV's actually sounds like a proper debate.

    Why should BBC be the first resort? They have been completely outplayed by ITV on political coverage for years now. Laura K is a terrible journalist, so painful to watch I have given up entirely on BBC News and now tolerate the crap ads and woeful investigative stuff on ITV just to avoid her. Election night coverage is far, far superior on ITV. And the TV debates are consistently better.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited December 2018
    Leadsom says she has listened to all sides of the House. Only a couple of years too late.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    The country is becoming ungovernable !

    Let us remember the words of David Cameron before the 2015 GE.

    A vote for Ed Miliband is a vote for a coalition of chaos ! Utterly hilarious given the chaos we’ve seen over the last few years with this inept Tory government !

    Surely Coalition of Chaos was May's line in 2017?

    Failing to vote in #Edstone in 2015 is increasingly looking like a failure by the British public.
    You think it would have been better to have had chaos in 2015 rather than in 2017? A curious view.
    After the last 3 years, PM Ed Milliband and CoE Ed Balls looks a missed opportunity for government that is merely amusing rather than the current lot doing slapstick on the edge of a cliff.
    The economy is sailing along, merrily, and most people are getting a yoy pay rise and lower petrol prices.

    Its only us political anoraks that remember all the little crises.
    Under the 2 Eds we would have been thriving, and Corbyn would be a never was on the backbenches, a Brexit referendum would be in the future. It would be an interesting counterfactual.
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    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    Well, they only lost (on their amendment) by 4. We may understand better when we have seen the advice: that legal advice should be privileged seems to be a principle worth defending, especially in the context of a negotiation.
    True, the first vote was close enough that they must have thought they had a chance.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Anazina said:

    While normally I think that a debate between leaders should be on BBC first and foremost the BBC do seem to have come up with a ludicrous proposal. ITV's actually sounds like a proper debate.

    Why should BBC be the first resort? They have been completely outplayed by ITV on political coverage for years now. Laura K is a terrible journalist, so painful to watch I have given up entirely on BBC News and now tolerate the crap ads and woeful investigative stuff on ITV just to avoid her. Election night coverage is far, far superior on ITV. And the TV debates are consistently better.
    Laura K a terrible journalist? Far from it
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578

    Mortimer said:

    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    I'm increasingly leaning towards the theory that the Chief Whip has lost control of the PCP.
    If that was the case why is he always so happy!
    Haven't you seen the size of is majority in Skip & Rip? He could be the last Tory standing.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Brom said:

    Anazina said:

    While normally I think that a debate between leaders should be on BBC first and foremost the BBC do seem to have come up with a ludicrous proposal. ITV's actually sounds like a proper debate.

    Why should BBC be the first resort? They have been completely outplayed by ITV on political coverage for years now. Laura K is a terrible journalist, so painful to watch I have given up entirely on BBC News and now tolerate the crap ads and woeful investigative stuff on ITV just to avoid her. Election night coverage is far, far superior on ITV. And the TV debates are consistently better.
    Laura K a terrible journalist? Far from it
    Oh she is. Take it from one who knows. She is utterly dire.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.

    Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.

    Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited December 2018
    Deleted.
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    Brexit is not dead yet but it is lying on the floor toga askew and a few men with knives stand peering over it
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    Why suffer the humiliation, and then publish?

    They could have avoided this by publishing yesterday.

    Yes, I really cannot understand it, it defies reason. It'd be called humiliation either way but they could have avoided some ignominy at least.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Anazina said:

    Brom said:

    Anazina said:

    While normally I think that a debate between leaders should be on BBC first and foremost the BBC do seem to have come up with a ludicrous proposal. ITV's actually sounds like a proper debate.

    Why should BBC be the first resort? They have been completely outplayed by ITV on political coverage for years now. Laura K is a terrible journalist, so painful to watch I have given up entirely on BBC News and now tolerate the crap ads and woeful investigative stuff on ITV just to avoid her. Election night coverage is far, far superior on ITV. And the TV debates are consistently better.
    Laura K a terrible journalist? Far from it
    Oh she is. Take it from one who knows. She is utterly dire.
    Anything specific?
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    The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.

    Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.

    Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.

    There is a mechanism - they can show the advice to the opposition leaders under Privy Council terms, and agree any redaction necessary.

    Of course, that does rather assume that the leader of the opposition isn't a terrorist-supporting extremist who sides with our enemies.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    May on ITV deal

    Appears to have done a

    I'M THE PM GET ME OUT OF HEEERE
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.

    Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.

    Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.

    There is a mechanism - they can show the advice to the opposition leaders under Privy Council terms, and agree any redaction necessary.

    Of course, that does rather assume that the leader of the opposition isn't a terrorist-supporting extremist who sides with our enemies.
    Perhaps if they'd made that argument in Parliament they would have gotten a fair few sympathetic Labour switchers.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    The tactics of the government on this are hard to understand. Were they playing for time, or hoping this would be a distraction? I don't get it.

    Well, they only lost (on their amendment) by 4. We may understand better when we have seen the advice: that legal advice should be privileged seems to be a principle worth defending, especially in the context of a negotiation.
    I am minded (and this is a rarity) to give the Government the benefit of the doubt on this one.

    But we shall see.
    I'm not. I get defending that principle but after they did not contest the first vote about releasing it the game was up.
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    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
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    Brexit is not dead yet but it is lying on the floor toga askew and a few men with knives stand peering over it

    and Brutus is Boris?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    Who is managing the Commons for Labour? They have done a cracking job.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    He shall be associated with refusing to provide the advice as demanded - weren't people saying he could be suspended for this? - so he will be remembered for it.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    When the opposition starts defeating a government it is really hard for the government to recover. If you can defeat them once, you can do it again.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Foxy said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    Who is managing the Commons for Labour? They have done a cracking job.
    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Bradley on BBC is right - if MPs go to talk to their constituents they might find that approval of the deal is increasing. Whether that will make a difference we don't of course know.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Jonathan said:

    When the opposition starts defeating a government it is really hard for the government to recover. If you can defeat them once, you can do it again.

    Well in the short term at least the DUP are essentially part of the the opposition bloc, and on any Brexit issue the government is heavily divided, so winning votes in the next few weeks will be tricky.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Jonathan said:

    When the opposition starts defeating a government it is really hard for the government to recover. If you can defeat them once, you can do it again.

    VONC due on the 12th isn't it?
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    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    Who is managing the Commons for Labour? They have done a cracking job.
    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
    I'll grant that they are serious about embarrassing and defeating the Government. On Brexit policy, not so much.
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    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    Who is managing the Commons for Labour? They have done a cracking job.
    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319
    edited December 2018

    Peston really is an over-excitable chump, though to be fair the Labour Whips' Twitter have put him away here:
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1069995463326269440

    I have never seen a journalist so far out of his depth as Peston is. Time and again he just repeats nonsense that anyone with any understanding of politics could see is nonsense.

    I sometimes wonder whether there's a competition to to see what the most ridiculous thing is that they can get him to pass on is.
    I'm not sure why people are so down on Preston, but he's got a really good analysis of the implications of Grieve's amendment:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1069981350822899712
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    We live in strange times .

    What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    TOPPING said:

    Bradley on BBC is right - if MPs go to talk to their constituents they might find that approval of the deal is increasing. Whether that will make a difference we don't of course know.

    The problem is the bubble effect - even if approval of the deal is increasing (and it'll be interesting to see if that changes now remain is very much back on the table) the Commons seems to be focused on its own struggles and procedures, on securing GEs or changes in direction, and they are whipped up into a frenzy where I don't feel a trend toward the deal in their constituencies will permeate that bubble.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.

    Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.

    Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.

    There is a mechanism - they can show the advice to the opposition leaders under Privy Council terms, and agree any redaction necessary.

    Of course, that does rather assume that the leader of the opposition isn't a terrorist-supporting extremist who sides with our enemies.
    Idiotic talk like that is why your party is in this mess.

    Your leader couldn't debate a 5 year old child
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    I can't see how the government can avoid defeat on the Grieve amendment. Not only are the numbers in his favour, he's also got a strong argument, given that there is no longer any risk that the amendment will compromise the government's negotiating position.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    Who is managing the Commons for Labour? They have done a cracking job.
    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    He seems to be leading them on the Brexit issue in every sense of the word. He can be cynical and disingenuous, but he seems quite competent and has played the whole thing very well to get toward his own preferred outcome, regardless of where the leadership might have been.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,319

    Jonathan said:



    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.

    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    A contempt motion is neither a confidence nor a supply motion, so it's moot.
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    The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.

    Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.

    Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.

    There is a mechanism - they can show the advice to the opposition leaders under Privy Council terms, and agree any redaction necessary.

    Of course, that does rather assume that the leader of the opposition isn't a terrorist-supporting extremist who sides with our enemies.
    Idiotic talk like that is why your party is in this mess.

    Your leader couldn't debate a 5 year old child
    That may be, but at least she has never invited terrorists into parliament to rub the noses of victims in the horrors of a recent bombing and attempt to destroy an elected government.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:



    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.

    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
    I’d vote for Sir Keir in a heartbeat.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Bradley on BBC is right - if MPs go to talk to their constituents they might find that approval of the deal is increasing. Whether that will make a difference we don't of course know.

    The problem is the bubble effect - even if approval of the deal is increasing (and it'll be interesting to see if that changes now remain is very much back on the table) the Commons seems to be focused on its own struggles and procedures, on securing GEs or changes in direction, and they are whipped up into a frenzy where I don't feel a trend toward the deal in their constituencies will permeate that bubble.
    plus the GE is three and a half years away.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    Who is managing the Commons for Labour? They have done a cracking job.
    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.
    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    He sure does.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    We tried to tell you Theresa. Doing a deal with the DUP will *end in tears* we said.

    But you wouldn't listen...
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    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.

    He seems to be leading them on the Brexit issue in every sense of the word. He can be cynical and disingenuous, but he seems quite competent and has played the whole thing very well to get toward his own preferred outcome, regardless of where the leadership might have been.

    He has played Corbyn as well as May.
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    Jonathan said:



    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.

    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
    If Sir Keir were leader you'd be 25 points ahead. And that's not even a particularly strong endorsement of Sir Keir, any sensible figure would do.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Bradley on BBC is right - if MPs go to talk to their constituents they might find that approval of the deal is increasing. Whether that will make a difference we don't of course know.

    The problem is the bubble effect - even if approval of the deal is increasing (and it'll be interesting to see if that changes now remain is very much back on the table) the Commons seems to be focused on its own struggles and procedures, on securing GEs or changes in direction, and they are whipped up into a frenzy where I don't feel a trend toward the deal in their constituencies will permeate that bubble.
    plus the GE is three and a half years away.
    It's hard, prima facie, to look at this Parliament as it is constituted today, and find it a house capable in any way of enduring another three and a half years of tortured existence.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Bradley on BBC is right - if MPs go to talk to their constituents they might find that approval of the deal is increasing. Whether that will make a difference we don't of course know.

    The problem is the bubble effect - even if approval of the deal is increasing (and it'll be interesting to see if that changes now remain is very much back on the table) the Commons seems to be focused on its own struggles and procedures, on securing GEs or changes in direction, and they are whipped up into a frenzy where I don't feel a trend toward the deal in their constituencies will permeate that bubble.
    plus the GE is three and a half years away.
    Could be three and a half months away the way things are going.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Bradley on BBC is right - if MPs go to talk to their constituents they might find that approval of the deal is increasing. Whether that will make a difference we don't of course know.

    The problem is the bubble effect - even if approval of the deal is increasing (and it'll be interesting to see if that changes now remain is very much back on the table) the Commons seems to be focused on its own struggles and procedures, on securing GEs or changes in direction, and they are whipped up into a frenzy where I don't feel a trend toward the deal in their constituencies will permeate that bubble.
    plus the GE is three and a half years away.
    Is scheduled to be three and half years away.

    I don't see how this government can function even past the new year. Obviously FTPA is an obstacle, but just how on earth will this shambles drag on beyond Brexit (if it even occurs - I put it as more likely than not it does not occur)?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    He has played Corbyn as well as May.

    And he'd pick up a shedload of soft Cons votes if he lead Lab into the next GE. Mine, for example, if "my" party is lead by the likes of Johnson, Redwood, Bridgen, Francois et al.
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    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    We tried to tell you Theresa. DoingBetraying a deal with the DUP will *end in tears* we said.

    But you wouldn't listen...
    Fixed that for you.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    We tried to tell you Theresa. Doing a deal with the DUP will *end in tears* we said.

    But you wouldn't listen...
    What would you have had her do? Ask Labour to agree another GE? Stumble along right from the start with a minority government full of potential rebellions on Brexit?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    nico67 said:

    We live in strange times .

    What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?

    You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
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    kle4 said:

    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    We tried to tell you Theresa. Doing a deal with the DUP will *end in tears* we said.

    But you wouldn't listen...
    What would you have had her do? Ask Labour to agree another GE? Stumble along right from the start with a minority government full of potential rebellions on Brexit?
    Having made a deal I'd have had her honour it.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    kle4 said:

    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    We tried to tell you Theresa. Doing a deal with the DUP will *end in tears* we said.

    But you wouldn't listen...
    What would you have had her do? Ask Labour to agree another GE? Stumble along right from the start with a minority government full of potential rebellions on Brexit?
    Either you do a deal with one party, or you have to do lots of mini-deals, which becomes impossible
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Since this is surely about Brexit and not about party advantage, how about May says after the deal is voted down that the plan is they won't hold a referendum or GE, but they will all ask the EU for an extension and Labour can negotiate to see if they can come up with a better deal, then they can come back and parliament will vote on the two options?

    Sounds ridiculous, but frankly Labour have a better chance of getting something through the Commons.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    It's Starmer of the Remove on the BBC being interviewed now.

    I half expect Billy Bunter to come up to him at any moment and ask to borrow five shillings.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    kle4 said:

    DUP: “We haven’t broken the confidence & supply deal - Theresa May broke it”

    Never cross an Ulster Unionist.

    We tried to tell you Theresa. Doing a deal with the DUP will *end in tears* we said.

    But you wouldn't listen...
    What would you have had her do? Ask Labour to agree another GE? Stumble along right from the start with a minority government full of potential rebellions on Brexit?
    Having made a deal I'd have had her honour it.
    That was not the point grabcoque was making though.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    House is divided on the Grieve amendment.

    This should carry by a pretty sizable margin, I'd think?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899

    I can't see how the government can avoid defeat on the Grieve amendment. Not only are the numbers in his favour, he's also got a strong argument, given that there is no longer any risk that the amendment will compromise the government's negotiating position.

    Particularly since he's told the house that he won't be amending any primary legislation.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Peston really is an over-excitable chump, though to be fair the Labour Whips' Twitter have put him away here:
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1069995463326269440

    I have never seen a journalist so far out of his depth as Peston is. Time and again he just repeats nonsense that anyone with any understanding of politics could see is nonsense.

    I sometimes wonder whether there's a competition to to see what the most ridiculous thing is that they can get him to pass on is.
    I'm sure tom bradby is itching to punch him sometimes.
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    House is divided on the Grieve amendment.

    This should carry by a pretty sizable margin, I'd think?

    Yep, maybe a majority of 40ish?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    House is divided on the Grieve amendment.

    This should carry by a pretty sizable margin, I'd think?

    DUP voting with Government
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Pulpstar said:

    I can't see how the government can avoid defeat on the Grieve amendment. Not only are the numbers in his favour, he's also got a strong argument, given that there is no longer any risk that the amendment will compromise the government's negotiating position.

    Particularly since he's told the house that he won't be amending any primary legislation.
    He'd do anything it took to get Remain, but in any case his amendment seems to have easily enough support to carry. Very bad day for the government, not that they will have many good days between now and the MV.
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    House is divided on the Grieve amendment.

    This should carry by a pretty sizable margin, I'd think?

    DUP voting with Government
    If so, then it might be close.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    The government's argument that current legal advice should be withheld because future legal advice might contain commercial or national security sensibilities is cretinous.

    Why not withhold the advice only when it *does*, rather than when it *doesn't*.

    Better still, why not provide a mechanism for partially redacting such advice so this stupid goddamn situation never happens again.

    There is a mechanism - they can show the advice to the opposition leaders under Privy Council terms, and agree any redaction necessary.

    Of course, that does rather assume that the leader of the opposition isn't a terrorist-supporting extremist who sides with our enemies.
    Idiotic talk like that is why your party is in this mess.

    Your leader couldn't debate a 5 year old child
    That may be, but at least she has never invited terrorists into parliament to rub the noses of victims in the horrors of a recent bombing and attempt to destroy an elected government.
    Point taken. Labour cocked up royally by allowing Corbyn's trojan horse to come in and take over. Starmer or Cooper would be excellent leaders. But I'm still going to vote for Corbyn's Labour because I want a government that believes in compassion and opportunity.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    He shall be associated with refusing to provide the advice as demanded - weren't people saying he could be suspended for this? - so he will be remembered for it.
    What a Cox up.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    Jonathan said:



    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.

    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
    If Sir Keir were leader you'd be 25 points ahead. And that's not even a particularly strong endorsement of Sir Keir, any sensible figure would do.
    Macron
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Maybe the DUP have just been offered something
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Government caves in, will publish the full legal advice.

    I thought Mr Cox was to be frogmarched?
    Sadly no frogmarching appears to be necessary because Leadsom caved immediately. :(
    It's not really fair, but I think that this isn't making Mike's bet that he'll be next leader very likely - he'll be remembered as the chap who lost a key vote.
    Surely that was Ms Leadsom?
    He shall be associated with refusing to provide the advice as demanded - weren't people saying he could be suspended for this? - so he will be remembered for it.
    What a Cox up.
    Cox out.
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    nico67 said:

    We live in strange times .

    What price the DUP supporting Labours Customs Union plan ?

    You mean the only deal with a Parliamentary majority that also meets the DUP Red Lines
    And the ever repeatable question - if the DUP could go into government with Martin McGuinness, why would Corbyn be a step too far as keeps being claimed?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077

    Jonathan said:



    It has been a first-class performance from Labour from start to finish. They are serious.

    And Sir Keir boosts his leadership chances with every passing day.
    Yes, he does. If we're ever in the mood to elect a leader with no very clear ideological profile who is simply competent and serious, he's in pole position.
    If Sir Keir were leader you'd be 25 points ahead. And that's not even a particularly strong endorsement of Sir Keir, any sensible figure would do.
    Macron
    What about Macron? France has a very different political culture compared to the UK.
This discussion has been closed.