Months and months ago I, and others I am sure, speculated that if any top Brexiteer was to flip back to remain and kind of make it work, it would be Boris. His words there are once again so anti the deal, or any similar deal, that remaining seems very viable.
Since deep down I think he is a remainer, were not adopting a contrary stance so much to his apparent personal advantage (at least until that moment when he was photographed having just won the vote), there was a time when I thought you were right, and saw that as a possible solution. But he is now so discredited that I am not sure any sensible remainer would want him on board.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
In the Conservative Party maybe... But what would his future be in a new Farage Party?
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
In the Rodeo of British Politics Boris chose Bull Riding - High risk, maximum gain.. Got thrown off and ground in to the dust. Should have stuck to Team Roping!
Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
In the Conservative Party maybe... But what would his future be in a new Farage Party?
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...
They are welcome to him. The sooner he decides to go the better
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Not within the EEA or EU it isn't. Cameron would have tried it if he could. These were fantastical legal claims by people trying to get us to stay in the EU.
If the political elite turn around and tell the working class that unlimited immigration is back to stay, the backlash will be bigger than almost all of them are expecting. "Your vote doesn't count. We will keep asking until you are defeated" is an explosive position. MPs are playing with fire.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
I agree he looked defeated. Exhausted and lacking the zest.
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
In the Conservative Party maybe... But what would his future be in a new Farage Party?
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...
Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
Next election will be next year and Britain will not leave the EU. Corbyn will be PM, the Tory Party will be decimated, businesses will flee the U.K. and we’ll regret we ever stuck with May for so long or defied the referendum result.
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
That's why we need something bigger than the traditional Nation State. With some form of democratic management.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hour
On the one hand we live in a time of zombie politics. No argument is ever truly dead, or incapable of being resurrected by a sufficiently charismatic leader. If people are looking for a grievance then they would have a whopper to latch onto.
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
Theresa May is speaking for the 52%. She has won back control of immigration, UK courts supreme over British law again and the ability to go and ended vast billions being sent to Brussels each year.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
Win and he would lose several defections and any chance of governing
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
Theresa May is speaking for the 52%. She has won back control of immigration, UK courts supreme over British law again and the ability to go and ended vast billions being sent to Brussels each year.
What will the annual contribution for the future relationship be? You have no way of knowing so it's completely misleading to say we will stop sending billions to Brussels each year.
All roads to Brexit (other than no deal) still lead through the Withdrawal agreement. That is one of the things so ridiculous about all the current debate about "Norway" etc. We aren't going to have "Norway" from 1st April next year. We would have two years of effective continued EU membership during the transition period, followed by Norway afterwards - as the solution negotiated through the trade deal.
May's deal doesn't rule out a Norway solution, but a Norway solution requires the withdrawal agreement. Realistically anybody opposing the Withdrawal agreement can only be in favour of Remain or No deal as an alternative. Various stripes of alternative Brexits, still lead through the transition period that requires the Withdrawal Agreement.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
Remember how earlier this year some people tried to claim that foreign investment in the UK had collapsed ?
' Investment into the UK from foreign companies rose to the highest level ever recorded last year as investors shrug off Brexit worries.
The value of the UK’s foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in 2017 was £1,336.5bn, a rise of £149.2bn since 2016, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The total, which is a record high, was boosted by a 321 per cent growth in investments from India.
Outward investment also increased by £38.7bn to £1,313.3bn over the period. Earnings from these investments enjoyed considerable growth, reversing the negative trend seen in recent years. '
"Before the referendum, official economic projections intended to scare the country into voting Remain didn’t succeed. Based on flimsy and arbitrary assumptions, they were subsequently proved wrong. The same strategy has resurfaced.
It saddens me to see the Bank of England unnecessarily drawn into this project. The Bank’s latest worst-case scenario shows the cost of leaving without a deal exceeding 10 percent of GDP. Two factors are responsible for the size of this effect: first, the assertion that productivity will fall because of lower trade; second, the assumption that disruption at borders — queues of lorries and interminable customs checks — will continue year after year. Neither is plausible. On this I concur with Paul Krugman. He’s no friend of Brexit and believes that Britain would be better off inside the EU — but on the claim of lower productivity, he describes the Bank’s estimates as “black box numbers” that are “dubious” and “questionable.” And on the claim of semi-permanent dislocation, he just says, “Really?” I agree: The British civil service may not be perfect, but it surely isn’t as bad as that. "
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hour
On the one hand we live in a time of zombie politics. No argument is ever truly dead, or incapable of being resurrected by a sufficiently charismatic leader. If people are looking for a grievance then they would have a whopper to latch onto.
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.
You are living in a dreamland if you think a hundred thousand unskilled workers coming to the UK every year with no limits on it will be forgotten. Especially if people who had long felt disenfranchised by politics finally got to have a say on it and then their victory got overturned. Remain won't put the fire out. It will throw gasoline on it.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the party
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out
Next election will be next year and Britain will not leave the EU. Corbyn will be PM, the Tory Party will be decimated, businesses will flee the U.K. and we’ll regret we ever stuck with May for so long or defied the referendum result.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
That's just crap, though, isn't it? There is no 52%. There is a small number of libertarian Brexit fanatics on the right. There is a larger number of people strongly opposed to the EU largely because of open borders and immigration. Then there is a larger still number of people who don't, and never did, care that much about Europe either way but chose to vote Leave on balance for a variety of reasons of which funding for the NHS figures highly (just as there are a mass of Remain voters who aren't strongly pro-EU).
There is no political market of any size for the first group (which is why they have always tried to hijack the Tory Party from within). The third group don't care enough. Whether or not the second group might back some sort of new Banks/Farage type enterprise is indeed an open question, but (as with much of UKIPs support) they would draw support from across the political spectrum.
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
Theresa May is speaking for the 52%. She has won back control of immigration, UK courts supreme over British law again and the ability to go and ended vast billions being sent to Brussels each year.
What will the annual contribution for the future relationship be? You have no way of knowing so it's completely misleading to say we will stop sending billions to Brussels each year.
As things stand, nothing. If it is anything near the current amount we turn it down and seek trade elsewhere. It's not like the EU can shut the borders on us.
None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
Oh not this rubbish again!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.
You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.
The whole electorate has had two more years to watch the EU in action. Some who previously voted remain will no doubt have misgivings about its behaviour.
The polling evidence would suggest that more leavers are switching to remain than the other way around. However the point of the demographic argument is that the leave majority has all but disappeared even if nobody else has changed their minds.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
It's interesting, though, isn't it?
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hour
On the one hand we live in a time of zombie politics. No argument is ever truly dead, or incapable of being resurrected by a sufficiently charismatic leader. If people are looking for a grievance then they would have a whopper to latch onto.
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.
You are living in a dreamland if you think a hundred thousand unskilled workers coming to the UK every year with no limits on it will be forgotten. Especially if people who had long felt disenfranchised by politics finally got to have a say on it and then their victory got overturned. Remain won't put the fire out. It will throw gasoline on it.
I did mention immigration quite specifically as a potential stumbling block.
I don't know what level of immigration from the EU would be high enough to cause political problems. Maybe 100,000 a year would be enough. I don't make a judgement on it. What I say is that it might be the only thing that would be able to keep the issue alive. Without it the importance of the issue disappears.
Think this is a shift, SNP coming out for straight up remain.
So they suddenly aren't bothered about fishing rights anymore.
Charlatans and liars, just like Labour.
Hmm no, the SNP aren't liars - they're straight up about remaining. Many on the Labour side are being deeply duplicitous.
They claimed to oppose the deal because it didn't guarantee 100% repatriation of fishing rights. Now they are supporting a position that guarantees 0% repatriation.
But once again the Remain media doesn't call out the hypocrisy of Remainers.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
Win and he would lose several defections and any chance of governing
Undoubtedly, but he’ll still win if he gets to the final two. He might even win a general election against Corbyn but he would be a terrible PM and not last long. Labour however might at least find someone sensible to replace Corbyn. The Tories will elect a Remainer and allow Corbyn in or another Leaver andallow Brexit to proceed. Don’t see the latter happening myself.
Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
It's interesting, though, isn't it?
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.
Interesting stuff.
Goodwin has pointed out, many times, that the most likely new party is not some Blair centrist thing but a social conservative, Brexit-loving, economically to the slight left, thing to the right.
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
That's just crap, though, isn't it? There is no 52%. There is a small number of libertarian Brexit fanatics on the right. There is a larger number of people strongly opposed to the EU largely because of open borders and immigration. Then there is a larger still number of people who don't, and never did, care that much about Europe either way but chose to vote Leave on balance for a variety of reasons of which funding for the NHS figures highly (just as there are a mass of Remain voters who aren't strongly pro-EU).
There is no political market of any size for the first group (which is why they have always tried to hijack the Tory Party from within). The third group don't care enough. Whether or not the second group might back some sort of new Banks/Farage type enterprise is indeed an open question, but (as with much of UKIPs support) they would draw support from across the political spectrum.
Yep - suspect far less people are ultimately obsessed by Brexit than people on here possibly seem to think!
To think that 52 per cent will vote for the hard Brexiteer option is a non starter; let alone as their primary issue of focus at a GE (vs. NHS, education, taxes, etc); it is a hardcore minority who will fight on. Everyone else will move on I suspect....
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
How are the polls and best leader ratings doing just now Nick
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
We may well come full circle. Until a few years ago (a number which can be more precisely measured by using the number of appearances by Farage on the bbc :-) ) most people couldn't give a cuss about the detail of the EU.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
JRM was speculating it will be 5 votes either way earlier today for what that is worth. I can’t believe it will be that close. The deal has nothinggoing for it.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
Remainer trying to convince himself that overturning the referendum result will have no consequences?
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
That's why we need something bigger than the traditional Nation State. With some form of democratic management.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.
As has the EU.
And its 'democratic management' is based upon allowing only what its self-perpetuating leadership wants.
Next election will be next year and Britain will not leave the EU. Corbyn will be PM, the Tory Party will be decimated, businesses will flee the U.K. and we’ll regret we ever stuck with May for so long or defied the referendum result.
Evening David. I mean Andy, sorry.
Sorry, pal. I don’t know who David is but he’s not me.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I doubt it. As I said yesterday, this isn't France. If Brexit is abrogated, I just won't vote Tory again. It will be very sad that the country would have sold itself for a mess of pottage, but I won't let bitterness consume me - bad for the complexion if nothing else!
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the party
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out
Name 1 Leaver whom you would support against a Remainer.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
That's why we need something bigger than the traditional Nation State. With some form of democratic management.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.
As has the EU.
And its 'democratic management' is based upon allowing only what its self-perpetuating leadership wants.
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hour
Head to head against Remain even No Deal gets at least 45% ie the same as Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and we all know what happened after the nationalist backlash in Scotland at General election 2015
The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
Even Labour lost lots of votes to UKIP in 2015 as it could do again if BINO
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.
There are more than enough Brexit hardliners to provide 20 to 25% for a new populist anti immigration party and we have our own FN, AfD, Swedish Democrats or Lega Nord
Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
It's interesting, though, isn't it?
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.
Interesting stuff.
Goodwin has pointed out, many times, that the most likely new party is not some Blair centrist thing but a social conservative, Brexit-loving, economically to the slight left, thing to the right.
I was with you until you write ‘thing to the right’. Eh?
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
He is a man that supported a killing campaign against British citizens.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
She always be a moron.
Triggered Art 50 when she clearly never intended to follow through with any sort of Brexit, ever. No clue about how long trade deals take. Got Corbyn on the ballot.
Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
She always be a moron.
She is pretty much the first speaker that I have heard (I missed the PM's intro) who recognises the seriousness and import of the debate and is making points of substance rather than just trying to score debating points.
Boris behaved as if he was in a university union debate and, once it had finished, the only job remaining was a trip to the bar.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
Even now the Tories are polling at least as high as they got at General election 2015 with most post 2017 movement to UKIP not Labour
JRM was speculating it will be 5 votes either way earlier today for what that is worth. I can’t believe it will be that close. The deal has nothinggoing for it.
Very interesting that JRM called the MV that close. The only way it can be is if he supports May in the vote.
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.
There are more than enough Brexit hardliners to provide 20 to 25% for a new populist anti immigration party and we have our own FN, AfD, Swedish Democrats or Lega Nord
So thought ukip. Once upon a time. If we remain, perhaps. But BINO doesn't agitate 2% let alone 20%. Brexit means Brexit (and nothing more), remember?
Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
She always be a moron.
I am the moron for sitting watching this in my hotel room. But its a politics trip to London so why not watch politics on TV before watching from the gallery tomorrow?
Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.
DIdn't see it but the fact that so many remainers here and on social media are attacking Boris's speech so intensely makes me think that it was probably rather good...
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
JRM was speculating it will be 5 votes either way earlier today for what that is worth. I can’t believe it will be that close. The deal has nothinggoing for it.
Very interesting that JRM called the MV that close. The only way it can be is if he supports May in the vote.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. He is all talk and very little substance.
It must be really tiring seeing racism in every story...rather than guy who wrote a stinker of a book got it published because he has name recognition which is likely to make it sell and has made publishers a lot of money over the years.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the party
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out
Name 1 Leaver whom you would support against a Remainer.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the party
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out
Name 1 Leaver whom you would support against a Remainer.
Penny Mordaunt
Fair enough. I had a lot of time for her myself but not if she supports May’s deal.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
Isn't there going to be a UKIP/Tommy Robinson march in London on Sunday? I think Farage is expecting violence and he's dissociating himself before it all starts kicking off.
Though I'm sure he's lining up starting a new party as well...
Comments
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...
Boris was iirc the Foreign Sec during most of this mess.
If the political elite turn around and tell the working class that unlimited immigration is back to stay, the backlash will be bigger than almost all of them are expecting. "Your vote doesn't count. We will keep asking until you are defeated" is an explosive position. MPs are playing with fire.
His hero would say KBO.
Will Boris?
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.
Did May instruct some of her supposed loyal types to support Grieve?
i.e. I want Parliament to take the next step?
May's deal doesn't rule out a Norway solution, but a Norway solution requires the withdrawal agreement. Realistically anybody opposing the Withdrawal agreement can only be in favour of Remain or No deal as an alternative. Various stripes of alternative Brexits, still lead through the transition period that requires the Withdrawal Agreement.
Also see
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/mervyn-king-says-may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-betrayal
"Before the referendum, official economic projections intended to scare the country into voting Remain didn’t succeed. Based on flimsy and arbitrary assumptions, they were subsequently proved wrong. The same strategy has resurfaced.
It saddens me to see the Bank of England unnecessarily drawn into this project. The Bank’s latest worst-case scenario shows the cost of leaving without a deal exceeding 10 percent of GDP. Two factors are responsible for the size of this effect: first, the assertion that productivity will fall because of lower trade; second, the assumption that disruption at borders — queues of lorries and interminable customs checks — will continue year after year. Neither is plausible. On this I concur with Paul Krugman. He’s no friend of Brexit and believes that Britain would be better off inside the EU — but on the claim of lower productivity, he describes the Bank’s estimates as “black box numbers” that are “dubious” and “questionable.” And on the claim of semi-permanent dislocation, he just says, “Really?” I agree: The British civil service may not be perfect, but it surely isn’t as bad as that. "
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1070050668243771392
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out
There is no political market of any size for the first group (which is why they have always tried to hijack the Tory Party from within). The third group don't care enough. Whether or not the second group might back some sort of new Banks/Farage type enterprise is indeed an open question, but (as with much of UKIPs support) they would draw support from across the political spectrum.
The Headbangers are indeed a bit dim, but I also reckon that they will funk it.
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1070051231111016449
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.
I don't know what level of immigration from the EU would be high enough to cause political problems. Maybe 100,000 a year would be enough. I don't make a judgement on it. What I say is that it might be the only thing that would be able to keep the issue alive. Without it the importance of the issue disappears.
But once again the Remain media doesn't call out the hypocrisy of Remainers.
Goodwin has pointed out, many times, that the most likely new party is not some Blair centrist thing but a social conservative, Brexit-loving, economically to the slight left, thing to the right.
To think that 52 per cent will vote for the hard Brexiteer option is a non starter; let alone as their primary issue of focus at a GE (vs. NHS, education, taxes, etc); it is a hardcore minority who will fight on. Everyone else will move on I suspect....
And its 'democratic management' is based upon allowing only what its self-perpetuating leadership wants.
With in-laws from Basildon my experience of the town every time I visit is that eyes were glazed over a long time ago...
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.
No clue about how long trade deals take.
Got Corbyn on the ballot.
Boris behaved as if he was in a university union debate and, once it had finished, the only job remaining was a trip to the bar.
A50 - God knows!
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/04/bad-sex-award-james-frey-katerina-fiction
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Though I'm sure he's lining up starting a new party as well...