Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hour
Head to head against Remain even No Deal gets at least 45% ie the same as Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and we all know what happened after the nationalist backlash in Scotland at General election 2015
Your treatment of polls as sacrosanct is hilarious
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
He's not a moderate, but he is pragmatic - essentially he wants to not just win the election but make a success of government from the radical left - something which most of us will admit is not that common. Contrast with e.g. Syriza, which was closer to the Arthur Scargill school of ranting leftism, until they collided with reality. Essentially a Corbyn/McDonnell government would be left-wing on things that don't cost money (workers on the board, two fingers to Trump, higher taxes for the top 5%) but cautious on finance - that's why the 2017 manifesto disappointed some who expected some sort of SWP tract.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
He's not a moderate, but he is pragmatic - essentially he wants to not just win the election but make a success of government from the radical left - something which most of us will admit is not that common. Contrast with e.g. Syriza, which was closer to the Arthur Scargill school of ranting leftism, until they collided with reality. Essentially a Corbyn/McDonnell government would be left-wing on things that don't cost money (workers on the board, two fingers to Trump, higher taxes for the top 5%) but cautious on finance - that's why the 2017 manifesto disappointed some who expected some sort of SWP tract.
Stuff that doesn’t cost money / cautious on finance...you are having a giraffe. How many billions have they promised to borrow and spend already?
Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.
DIdn't see it but the fact that so many remainers here and on social media are attacking Boris's speech so intensely makes me think that it was probably rather good...
Even though they'll look ridiculous, if Leavers in the HoC DO all suddenly about face and row in behind May's deal (even if it is narrowly defeated) it does change the dynamic significantly. Because the remainers currently in the ascendancy have the protection that the Leavers as much as themselves are arguing the deal doesn't respect the referendum and Remaining is better than no deal.
If all Leavers get behind the deal the position in the Country changes (and indeed the Conservative Party would have largely reunited)
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.
There are more than enough Brexit hardliners to provide 20 to 25% for a new populist anti immigration party and we have our own FN, AfD, Swedish Democrats or Lega Nord
So thought ukip. Once upon a time. If we remain, perhaps. But BINO doesn't agitate 2% let alone 20%. Brexit means Brexit (and nothing more), remember?
It doesn't if it leaves free movement in place which provides ideal fuel for a new anti immigration party targeted at working class Leave voters on the lines of the populist anti immigration parties now on about a quarter of the vote across Europe
If true that is very interesting. At the start of the MV process I did wonder if the ERG might sit up at the eleventh hour and say “hang on, we’re staring down the barrel of EURef2 here. Let’s hold our nose and vote for this thing.”
Given all the sound and fury of recent weeks I thought that was now highly unlikely... but are we going to get some final minute swing behind the deal here?
Still think it’s not very likely, but if so I think that probably gives TM enough to go for MV2. Get another wooly statement on the backstop to twist enough arms to go through with this thing. Big if though.
Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.
DIdn't see it but the fact that so many remainers here and on social media are attacking Boris's speech so intensely makes me think that it was probably rather good...
That must be post of the day. It was sad and pathetic
As I said earlier, I see a lot of Tony Benn in Hilary Benn. Yes he has a clearer voice. But listen to the cadence and rhythms in his voice - the same as his dad
If true that'd change everything - you'd have a moderate sized defeat, followed by May going to the Euro Council meeting 2 days later, extracting some minor concession, returns for re-vote.....
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
No, it's based on seeing if they actually want Brexit as much as they say they do, which I don't think many do. They only want perfect Brexit and would be happy with no brexit, so they can moan.
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
Agreed. She deserves much criticism, but she does actually at least seem to be trying to find something that might be acceptable to both the 48 and the 52. Most others are focusing only on what one side wants.
As has been pointed out to death, while the Brexiteers being against will condemn the deal to a massive defeat, they are not enough on their own to see it through even if they change their minds. Labour and the Tory remainers are also needed in some numbers, and they are now working for remain above all else.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
Isn't there going to be a UKIP/Tommy Robinson march in London on Sunday? I think Farage is expecting violence and he's dissociating himself before it all starts kicking off.
Though I'm sure he's lining up starting a new party as well...
A demo involving tommy Robinson ending in violence, surely not...although to be fair, these days it seems like the anti-facist hooligans are just as involved as the baldy racist elements.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
No, it's based on seeing if they actually want Brexit as much as they say they do, which I don't think many do. They only want perfect Brexit and would be happy with no brexit, so they can moan.
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
Agreed. She deserves much criticism, but she does actually at least seem to be trying to find something that might be acceptable to both the 48 and the 52. Most others are focusing only on what one side wants.
As has been pointed out to death, while the Brexiteers being against will condemn the deal to a massive defeat, they are not enough on their own to see it through even if they change their minds. Labour and the Tory remainers are also needed in some numbers, and they are now working for remain above all else.
I don't know - a lot of Labour MPs still have to look to their constituencies if it looks like their votes could be influential on whether we leave or stay. A Tory Party (sans a few remainers) rowing in behind the deal as the only do-able form of Brexit could even take that to the country in a GE.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I doubt it. As I said yesterday, this isn't France. If Brexit is abrogated, I just won't vote Tory again. It will be very sad that the country would have sold itself for a mess of pottage, but I won't let bitterness consume me - bad for the complexion if nothing else!
Quite. This is how the backlash would take place. I'm sure the PM knows this, and so does the LOTO (hence the LAB policy for a second ref, but only if the Tories call it). If you want a precedent, his name is Bertie Ahern. Ask people to vote again and you lose half your votes and three quarters of your seats.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
Surely you joke?
No. The establishment is out of control and purely in it for themselves. The country needs once in a century shake up.
The people tried to do it with Brexit but that decision is in the process of being overturned.
The only thing left to bring the establishment to their knees is a Corbyn government...
You need to differentiate between the metropolitan elite and the establishment
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
If JRM votes for the deal, as leader of ERG many of that group would to.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the party membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of their backbenchers
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
I know people perform u-turns, but I just cannot believe that. These people have not just said the deal is unacceptable, they have made clear it is a fundamentally flawed, historically atrocious humiliation. What new information could possibly convince such people to change their tune, whether or not they believed their own rhetoric there's nothing to justify such a switch.
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
If JRM votes for the deal, as leader of ERG many of that group would to.
That is why I am sceptical
The ERG proved a busted flush when it came to replacing May. Even with their support,the deal wont pass - not with the DUP voting against it.
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.
He's not a moderate, but he is pragmatic - essentially he wants to not just win the election but make a success of government from the radical left - something which most of us will admit is not that common. Contrast with e.g. Syriza, which was closer to the Arthur Scargill school of ranting leftism, until they collided with reality. Essentially a Corbyn/McDonnell government would be left-wing on things that don't cost money (workers on the board, two fingers to Trump, higher taxes for the top 5%) but cautious on finance - that's why the 2017 manifesto disappointed some who expected some sort of SWP tract.
Interesting, you are winning over this fiscally dry leftie! I guess that’s all part of the plan. Not so hot on the higher taxes for the top 5% though. Any chance of making that the top 2%? ;-)
No, it's based on seeing if they actually want Brexit as much as they say they do, which I don't think many do. They only want perfect Brexit and would be happy with no brexit, so they can moan.
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
Agreed. She deserves much criticism, but she does actually at least seem to be trying to find something that might be acceptable to both the 48 and the 52. Most others are focusing only on what one side wants.
As has been pointed out to death, while the Brexiteers being against will condemn the deal to a massive defeat, they are not enough on their own to see it through even if they change their minds. Labour and the Tory remainers are also needed in some numbers, and they are now working for remain above all else.
I don't know - a lot of Labour MPs still have to look to their constituencies if it looks like their votes could be influential on whether we leave or stay. A Tory Party (sans a few remainers) rowing in behind the deal as the only do-able form of Brexit could even take that to the country in a GE.
I could still see a few Labour MPs abstaining tbh - especially those nursing small majorities in strong leave constituencies.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
Surely you joke?
No. The establishment is out of control and purely in it for themselves. The country needs once in a century shake up.
The people tried to do it with Brexit but that decision is in the process of being overturned.
The only thing left to bring the establishment to their knees is a Corbyn government...
You need to differentiate between the metropolitan elite and the establishment
The Brexiteers are from the heart of the establishment, except the Russians of course!
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
I know people perform u-turns, but I just cannot believe that. These people have not just said the deal is unacceptable, they have made clear it is a fundamentally flawed, historically atrocious humiliation. What new information could possibly convince such people to change their tune, whether or not they believed their own rhetoric there's nothing to justify such a switch.
Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.
DIdn't see it but the fact that so many remainers here and on social media are attacking Boris's speech so intensely makes me think that it was probably rather good...
Yeah it would have appealed to certain people that’s for sure.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Sir Roger Gale right now describing precisely how no deal would gridlock us. "The people of Somerset and the people of Uxbridge will scream blue murder when they can't get life-saving drugs"
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
As I said earlier, I see a lot of Tony Benn in Hilary Benn. Yes he has a clearer voice. But listen to the cadence and rhythms in his voice - the same as his dad
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence - especially given that we could veto the entire budget.
Sir Roger Gale right now describing precisely how no deal would gridlock us. "The people of Somerset and the people of Uxbridge will scream blue murder when they can't get life-saving drugs"
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence?
Last time it was up for renewal Blair gave away 80% of it and Macron and verhofstadt have already said we’ll lose the rest if we stay.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.
DIdn't see it but the fact that so many remainers here and on social media are attacking Boris's speech so intensely makes me think that it was probably rather good...
That must be post of the day. It was sad and pathetic
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
Periodically, the rebate has to be renegotiated. There are various conflicting noises off from the EU bureaucracy as to whether a BRemain would result in the outright loss of the rebate. Though as I said way back in 2016, anyone using the rebate as a reason for leaving/staying is an idiot. It's noise in the great scheme of things.
In the long term, if we do stay or rejoin, the EU will necessarily become more homogenous; the mood music from the commission is clear - despite opposition from the contributory states:
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence - especially given that we could veto the entire budget.
If we had vetoed the budget last time it would have saved us money but Cameron still didn't do it.
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
If JRM votes for the deal, as leader of ERG many of that group would to.
That is why I am sceptical
The ERG proved a busted flush when it came to replacing May. Even with their support,the deal wont pass - not with the DUP voting against it.
If true that is very interesting. At the start of the MV process I did wonder if the ERG might sit up at the eleventh hour and say “hang on, we’re staring down the barrel of EURef2 here. Let’s hold our nose and vote for this thing.”
Given all the sound and fury of recent weeks I thought that was now highly unlikely... but are we going to get some final minute swing behind the deal here?
Still think it’s not very likely, but if so I think that probably gives TM enough to go for MV2. Get another wooly statement on the backstop to twist enough arms to go through with this thing. Big if though.
I still think hardcore Tory backbenchers are getting it in both ears from their constituency parties and businesses asking wtf they’re playing at. There’s a *world* of difference between this and remain (not least immigration control and likely large reduction in the price), it meets the definition of Brexit for most and avoids tanking the economy. Sure, it’s rule-taking. But an FTA will be too (yup.. sell us as much as you like.. with its CE safety badge and European plug attached).
Like you, I’d doubted the vehemence of the hardcore could be turned around. But something has to give in this process at some point - and JRM bottling is no more bizarre than wasting three years then remaining, or driving UK plc off the White Cliffs.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence?
Last time it was up for renewal Blair gave away 80% of it and Macron and verhofstadt have already said we’ll lose the rest if we stay.
Got any evidence for the fake assertion that Blair gave away 80% of the rebate?
Article 13 (Online content) is an excellent reason for heading out the EU with May's deal, Norway+CU or any other method dreamt up.
The beloved EU actually doing something unpopular? How could this be possible? Didn't you know the EU is the best thing since motherhood and apple pie!
Anyway, knowing Mrs May she's probably got us locked into A13 as part of the WA as well...
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
Means testing the dole would be a) an administrative nightmare and b) unfair to those who have contributed. Universal benefits have a lot to recommend them.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
I know people perform u-turns, but I just cannot believe that. These people have not just said the deal is unacceptable, they have made clear it is a fundamentally flawed, historically atrocious humiliation. What new information could possibly convince such people to change their tune, whether or not they believed their own rhetoric there's nothing to justify such a switch.
The fact that A50 can be unilaterally revoked?
Perhaps JRM just came to his senses. Even if you dislike this deal as not going far enough, you can bank these wins and then fight for further changes down the line. Remainers will be able to rouse far less passion for staying in a Customs Agreement than they can for being part of the European Integration Project.
Article 13 (Online content) is an excellent reason for heading out the EU with May's deal, Norway+CU or any other method dreamt up.
The beloved EU actually doing something unpopular? How could this be possible? Didn't you know the EU is the best thing since motherhood and apple pie!
Anyway, knowing Mrs May she's probably got us locked into A13 as part of the WA as well...
Perhaps for the transition period, but I doubt it'll be in as part of the backstop. That's a seriously de minimus agreement.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That's not true. An influx of unskilled labour undermines working class pay and conditions even if they don't claim benefits.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence?
Last time it was up for renewal Blair gave away 80% of it and Macron and verhofstadt have already said we’ll lose the rest if we stay.
Got any evidence for the fake assertion that Blair gave away 80% of the rebate?
Blimey, people are lazy these days. No idea of the proportion, but here you are, saved you a click or two.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
Our problem is people coming from the rest of Europe, Italy's problem is economic immigrants from Africa, the US problem is immigration from Mexico and Latin America.
So for the UK our issue is people coming from little to earn more, the problem in the countries you list is people coming from earning nothing to earn something...
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
The issue in Italy is non-EU immigration, from across the Med and from the Balkans. EU migrants are uncontroversial in comparison, including the large Romanian diaspora.
Indeed if you ask Mr "Tommy Robinson" here, you might well find the same.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Nope, Leadsom got 84 MPs in 2016 and got to the final two
It was deemed a no go prior to the referendum and dismissed out of hand by the EU and EFTA countries (UK too big for what is in effect a subsidiary and subservient adjunct to the EU).
Plus the emergency brake would very likely not apply or be able to be applied to the UK (what emergency?).
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Not necessarily... If at the final-three stage the favourite got, say, 250 votes the runner-up could have as few as 32 votes, fewer if there were abstentions.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
Means testing the dole would be a) an administrative nightmare and b) unfair to those who have contributed. Universal benefits have a lot to recommend them.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence?
Last time it was up for renewal Blair gave away 80% of it and Macron and verhofstadt have already said we’ll lose the rest if we stay.
Got any evidence for the fake assertion that Blair gave away 80% of the rebate?
It’s not a fake assertion. The internet is you friend if cant remember.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Nope, Leadsom got 84 MPs in 2016 and got to the final two
How big is the Conhome website as in number of Tory members?
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That's not true. An influx of unskilled labour undermines working class pay and conditions even if they don't claim benefits.
If Tories really cared about the low pay of the Working classes, they wouldn't have been screwing them for years.
I would trust the late Bob Crowe on the issue, not JRM or Boris.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one d.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
Our problem is people coming from the rest of Europe, Italy's problem is economic immigrants from Africa, the US problem is immigration from Mexico and Latin America.
So for the UK our issue is people coming from little to earn more, the problem in the countries you list is people coming from earning nothing to earn something...
Even in the UK there are concerns about Muslim immigration and cultural change and law and order issues and Merkel's opening the floodgates added to that.
Plus even with contributions based benefits you still have pressure on housing, wages, public services etc from immigration
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Nope, Leadsom got 84 MPs in 2016 and got to the final two
So? That's because May got way more than she needed. I said "guarantee" ie. get in the final two regardless of other candidates colluding to keep him out (as happened to keep Portillo off the ballot in 2001).
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence?
Last time it was up for renewal Blair gave away 80% of it and Macron and verhofstadt have already said we’ll lose the rest if we stay.
Got any evidence for the fake assertion that Blair gave away 80% of the rebate?
Blimey, people are lazy these days. No idea of the proportion, but here you are, saved you a click or two.
Evidence - especially given that we could veto the entire budget.
Our veto will rapidly become worthless in almost all areas. It was worth listening to Daniela Schwarzer on PM last night. She is the Director of the German Council on Foreign Relations and was commenting on the issues with Italy. She said exactly what I have been saying for years now. The only way that the Eurozone and the EU in general can survive in the long term is with a hugely increased integration programme and what she called 'finishing the Eurozone project'. That means political and economic integration including the raising of EU taxation and EU control of economic policy.
Britain can only ever be a barrier to that. That is why they will either have to force our veto off us or force us out of the EU. Far better that we are out now so they can get on with their integration project because we sure as hell can't stop it.
If Tories really cared about the low pay of the Working classes, they wouldn't have been screwing them for years.
I would trust the late Bob Crowe on the issue, not JRM or Boris.
If anyone wants to see how awful a negotiator Boris actually was, just take a look at the huuge deals TFL (Crow) managed to get out of him whilst he was Mayor.
'I doubt you will find a better offer than this anywhere else in the public sector,' said union boss Bob Crow
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
That is not really true, Italy has a contribution based benefits system as does the USA and Lega Nord is on over 30% on an anti immigration ticket and Trump is US president on the same platform
The issue in Italy is non-EU immigration, from across the Med and from the Balkans. EU migrants are uncontroversial in comparison, including the large Romanian diaspora.
Indeed if you ask Mr "Tommy Robinson" here, you might well find the same.
If North African and Middle Eastern migrants get to Italy and France then it gets easier to come to the UK through the Tunnel or by ferry
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
If JRM votes for the deal, as leader of ERG many of that group would to.
That is why I am sceptical
The ERG proved a busted flush when it came to replacing May. Even with their support,the deal wont pass - not with the DUP voting against it.
It would if 20 to 40 Labour MPs did
Even Santa Claus can’t come up that number though who will.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Not necessarily... If at the final-three stage the favourite got, say, 250 votes the runner-up could have as few as 32 votes, fewer if there were abstentions.
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.
Your definition of normal and mine and the circles in which we mix will be very different then.
My experience is that, yes, people are bored to tears and frustrated with it, and one might assume past caring, but ask them direct and suddenly people will become intense about it again. And that is true of remainers and leavers. Leavers are more desperate right now because they can see it all slipping away, but remainers are getting a little triumphant a bit early as well, when there's still a fight to be had.
I agree with what you say about Remainers. That is why there will be a backlash particularly when we stay in the CFP and EU immigration ramps up again. That’s before we get to the point the rebate disappears.
Why would the rebate disappear?
Because the EU don’t like it and won’t let it stand after 2020 when it’s up for renewal.
Evidence?
Last time it was up for renewal Blair gave away 80% of it and Macron and verhofstadt have already said we’ll lose the rest if we stay.
Got any evidence for the fake assertion that Blair gave away 80% of the rebate?
It’s not a fake assertion. The internet is you friend if cant remember.
You mean like this (which quotes 20% reduction not the 80% you made up)...
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
I know people perform u-turns, but I just cannot believe that. These people have not just said the deal is unacceptable, they have made clear it is a fundamentally flawed, historically atrocious humiliation. What new information could possibly convince such people to change their tune, whether or not they believed their own rhetoric there's nothing to justify such a switch.
The fact that A50 can be unilaterally revoked?
But remaining was a risk before, even if not as severe a risk. It doesn't make this deal any better.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Not necessarily... If at the final-three stage the favourite got, say, 250 votes the runner-up could have as few as 32 votes, fewer if there were abstentions.
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
If JRM votes for the deal, as leader of ERG many of that group would to.
That is why I am sceptical
The ERG proved a busted flush when it came to replacing May. Even with their support,the deal wont pass - not with the DUP voting against it.
It would if 20 to 40 Labour MPs did
Even Santa Claus can’t come up that number though who will.
If the alternative to May's Deal is Norway plus Customs Union and free movement many Labour MPs in Leave seats could switch to May's Deal
No, it's based on seeing if they actually want Brexit as much as they say they do, which I don't think many do. They only want perfect Brexit and would be happy with no brexit, so they can moan.
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
Agreed. She deserves much criticism, but she does actually at least seem to be trying to find something that might be acceptable to both the 48 and the 52. Most others are focusing only on what one side wants.
As has been pointed out to death, while the Brexiteers being against will condemn the deal to a massive defeat, they are not enough on their own to see it through even if they change their minds. Labour and the Tory remainers are also needed in some numbers, and they are now working for remain above all else.
I don't know - a lot of Labour MPs still have to look to their constituencies if it looks like their votes could be influential on whether we leave or stay. A Tory Party (sans a few remainers) rowing in behind the deal as the only do-able form of Brexit could even take that to the country in a GE.
I could still see a few Labour MPs abstaining tbh - especially those nursing small majorities in strong leave constituencies.
Brexit is not a salient issue - despite being important - particularly for Labour voters. Other issues will easily override it - and any votes at risk were probably lost in 2017.It may have some impact here and there on winning back white working class voters.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Nope, Leadsom got 84 MPs in 2016 and got to the final two
So? That's because May got way more than she needed. I said "guarantee" ie. get in the final two regardless of other candidates colluding to keep him out (as happened to keep Portillo off the ballot in 2001).
Portillo did not have the support of the right as Boris would but got squeezed between IDS and Clarke
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
I know people perform u-turns, but I just cannot believe that. These people have not just said the deal is unacceptable, they have made clear it is a fundamentally flawed, historically atrocious humiliation. What new information could possibly convince such people to change their tune, whether or not they believed their own rhetoric there's nothing to justify such a switch.
The fact that A50 can be unilaterally revoked?
But remaining was a risk before, even if not as severe a risk. It doesn't make this deal any better.
The thing is, when you think you're winning you tend to push for a bit more. When the tide has turned, banking the gains to date seems much more attractive.
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Nope, Leadsom got 84 MPs in 2016 and got to the final two
How big is the Conhome website as in number of Tory members?
Even with Tory voters Boris leads with Yougov if May goes.
Con home got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on
He’ll have zero credibility, even if he still has any, if that’s true. He’ll be lampooned as a bigger buffoon than Boris if that’s true, and rightly so.
If JRM votes for the deal, as leader of ERG many of that group would to.
That is why I am sceptical
The ERG proved a busted flush when it came to replacing May. Even with their support,the deal wont pass - not with the DUP voting against it.
It would if 20 to 40 Labour MPs did
Even Santa Claus can’t come up that number though who will.
If the alternative to May's Deal is Norway plus Customs Union and free movement many Labour MPs in Leave seats could switch to May's Deal
I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Far from it, game is only just beginning.
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with Farage
It isn't, if he gets to the membership Boris will likely win the Tory leadership
And lose a lot of his mps. They will not serve with him
With Corbyn as Labour leader and Boris as Tory leader you may end up with a scenario where both the Tory and Labour leaders are elected by the membership despite the misgivings of large numbers of backbenchers, so be it
Johnson has no chance at all
Of course he does, he only needs about 80 MPs to get to the final two then he almost certainly wins the membership
Over 100MPs required to guarantee a place in the final 2
Nope, Leadsom got 84 MPs in 2016 and got to the final two
So? That's because May got way more than she needed. I said "guarantee" ie. get in the final two regardless of other candidates colluding to keep him out (as happened to keep Portillo off the ballot in 2001).
Portillo did not have the support of the right as Boris would but got squeezed between IDS and Clarke
IDS lent Clarke votes. Anyway that's missing the point. You said he needs 80 votes. I pointed out that he needs 100+ to guarantee a place. That is just a mathematical fact.
No, it's based on seeing if they actually want Brexit as much as they say they do, which I don't think many do. They only want perfect Brexit and would be happy with no brexit, so they can moan.
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.
Agreed. She deserves much criticism, but she does actually at least seem to be trying to find something that might be acceptable to both the 48 and the 52. Most others are focusing only on what one side wants.
As has been pointed out to death, while the Brexiteers being against will condemn the deal to a massive defeat, they are not enough on their own to see it through even if they change their minds. Labour and the Tory remainers are also needed in some numbers, and they are now working for remain above all else.
I don't know - a lot of Labour MPs still have to look to their constituencies if it looks like their votes could be influential on whether we leave or stay. A Tory Party (sans a few remainers) rowing in behind the deal as the only do-able form of Brexit could even take that to the country in a GE.
I could still see a few Labour MPs abstaining tbh - especially those nursing small majorities in strong leave constituencies.
Brexit is not a salient issue - despite being important - particularly for Labour voters. Other issues will easily override it - and any votes at risk were probably lost in 2017.It may have some impact here and there on winning back white working class voters.
No. And few Labour MPs are going to want to risk being blamed for the ensuring the survival of May's government - that would indeed be career-ending.
If Tories really cared about the low pay of the Working classes, they wouldn't have been screwing them for years.
I would trust the late Bob Crowe on the issue, not JRM or Boris.
If anyone wants to see how awful a negotiator Boris actually was, just take a look at the huuge deals TFL (Crow) managed to get out of him whilst he was Mayor.
'I doubt you will find a better offer than this anywhere else in the public sector,' said union boss Bob Crow
That's a bit harsh - what about that fantastic deal Boris got on those water cannon?
Comments
Farage wouldn't be the only one defecting to the SDP...
If all Leavers get behind the deal the position in the Country changes (and indeed the Conservative Party would have largely reunited)
Given all the sound and fury of recent weeks I thought that was now highly unlikely... but are we going to get some final minute swing behind the deal here?
Still think it’s not very likely, but if so I think that probably gives TM enough to go for MV2. Get another wooly statement on the backstop to twist enough arms to go through with this thing. Big if though.
Wait, wot? Anyone see another source?
If true that'd change everything - you'd have a moderate sized defeat, followed by May going to the Euro Council meeting 2 days later, extracting some minor concession, returns for re-vote.....
That is why I am sceptical
Equally immigration is only a problem because are benefits system is means based rather than contribution based. Blair and Brown were told they would need to change it in 2004 but they didn't listen...
In the long term, if we do stay or rejoin, the EU will necessarily become more homogenous; the mood music from the commission is clear - despite opposition from the contributory states:
'Wealthier EU states attack Brussels plan to end rebates'
https://www.ft.com/content/5ce33318-4e1e-11e8-a7a9-37318e776bab
Like you, I’d doubted the vehemence of the hardcore could be turned around. But something has to give in this process at some point - and JRM bottling is no more bizarre than wasting three years then remaining, or driving UK plc off the White Cliffs.
Anyway, knowing Mrs May she's probably got us locked into A13 as part of the WA as well...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/dec/17/eu.world
From the article:
'The total cost to Britain over the seven year period will be €62bn (£40bn) - a 63% net increase'.
Of course, the Guardian is a well known Tory rag, so take it with a pinch of salt.
So for the UK our issue is people coming from little to earn more, the problem in the countries you list is people coming from earning nothing to earn something...
Indeed if you ask Mr "Tommy Robinson" here, you might well find the same.
It was deemed a no go prior to the referendum and dismissed out of hand by the EU and EFTA countries (UK too big for what is in effect a subsidiary and subservient adjunct to the EU).
Plus the emergency brake would very likely not apply or be able to be applied to the UK (what emergency?).
Unlikely, I agree, but theoretically possible.
I would trust the late Bob Crowe on the issue, not JRM or Boris.
Plus even with contributions based benefits you still have pressure on housing, wages, public services etc from immigration
This might help...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate
Britain can only ever be a barrier to that. That is why they will either have to force our veto off us or force us out of the EU. Far better that we are out now so they can get on with their integration project because we sure as hell can't stop it.
'I doubt you will find a better offer than this anywhere else in the public sector,' said union boss Bob Crow
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate
Con home got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on