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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general

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  • kle4 said:

    All this has been for nothing.

    It's not all bad, looking on the bright side it's distracted the government and prevented them from doing other things.
  • alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted down
    I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.
    The first post I have read this morning and very true
  • HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after



    For what it's worth, a referendum asking a choice between leave but stay in SM and CU or leave on the current deal would have a genuine legitimacy because it is not a re-run of 2016, and either answer delivers the actual mandate of 2016 (ie leaving the EU). Until that mandate is legally and actually delivered we can't move on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Chart of what happens if the May Deal goes down

    https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1070573517689761792
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?

    Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.

    The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.

    The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".


    Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
  • Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    All this has been for nothing.

    It's not all bad, looking on the bright side it's distracted the government and prevented them from doing other things.
    Ha. Phew.
  • Mr. Me, yeah. Not fond of that sort of thing.

    Mr. NorthWales, well, that at least is sensible. Had heard it'd be a few days later, which would've been rather silly.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    A General Election is surely inconceivable until or unless the Tories ditch May after her catastrophic failure in the last election. Once they’ve ditched her, a General Election makes eminent sense - let voters decide whether they want their current elected representatives who have made such a horlicks over Brexit and totally abandoned domestic policy to do it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted down
    I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.

    Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?
    Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you go
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The latest YouGov survey asks for a ranking of Deal, No Deal and No Brexit (at the end of a long survey about holidays) - it will be interesting to see how that comes out.
  • Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    That'll keep those remainers fired up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Except the fact it is the only option now with a likely Commons majority and it avoids the economic disaster of No Deal or the huge division and uncertainty of EUref2.

    Even the DUP could vote for it if it applies to the whole UK, the SNP and LDs and most Labour MPs and Lucas and Hermon and probably around half of Tory MPs will vote for it if the Deal goes down
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited December 2018

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted down
    I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.
    The first post I have read this morning and very true
    An outrage! Every single post I've ever made is a lovingly hand crafted piece of pure originality!
  • algarkirk said:

    I wonder whether one could look at this the other way round, and start from the assumption that the HoC is not going to take any steps which involves a timetable of having actually to do anything or be anywhere particular, or cause special annoyance to the voting public, between about 23 December and 3 January. Maybe only after such a calculation can you try to discern the course of events.

    Given May's character, I can't see anything other than she will lose the vote and then announce she is going back to the EU in the New Year.

    This buys her one more Xmas in Downing Street.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted down
    I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.

    Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?
    Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you go
    Which EU institutions would we be staying in, precisely?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted down
    I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.

    Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?
    Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you go
    So the amendment gets carried, as does the amended motion, everyone says "that's fair enough", 48 letters don't appear, no VONC, no GE, all the MPs go off for Xmas, and in the New Year the whole thing is sorted out quickly with the EU, agreed by Parliament, and Mrs M stays in post to implement it all? That sounds great, especially for my £/$ trade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after



    For what it's worth, a referendum asking a choice between leave but stay in SM and CU or leave on the current deal would have a genuine legitimacy because it is not a re-run of 2016, and either answer delivers the actual mandate of 2016 (ie leaving the EU). Until that mandate is legally and actually delivered we can't move on.
    Except without a Commons majority for EUref2 there cannot be one and there is no Commons majority for EUref2 at the moment
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.

    Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?

    The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.

    If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.

    So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.

    We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Would they need more deliberation and a longer written reasoning if they chose to contradict the EU AG than if they agreed his opinion? In other words, does the speed give any hint?
  • Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    It is just amazing - the way things are going the ECJ will require the EU 27 states to agree unanimously

    Not that I expect that - it seems logical the UK will be able to withdraw it upto the date of implementation

  • Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.
    That makes all the difference doesnt it. Letwin is a fully paid up member of the “managed decline club”.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Except the fact it is the only option now with a likely Commons majority and it avoids the economic disaster of No Deal or the huge division and uncertainty of EUref2.

    Even the DUP could vote for it if it applies to the whole UK, the SNP and LDs and most Labour MPs and Lucas and Hermon and probably around half of Tory MPs will vote for it if the Deal goes down
    It’s a two fingered salute to the electorate from MPs who think they know better even though most of them aren’t fit to hold the positions they do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Good morning, everyone.

    Fiery sky outside. Clouds looked red as I walked the dog. Portents of doom... for someone.

    Yellow weather warning for wind for northern GB tomorrow.
    All that Friday fish & chips?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.
    If there’s one red line I think may would never break it is the Freedom of Movement one. It’s crackers, and it almost certainly wouldn’t have a majority support in the House of Commons. Political journalists saying that are talking to a very narrow band of MPs and making some enormous assumptions. FoM is THE reason Preventing Labour MPs from coming out for remain on masse.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Would they need more deliberation and a longer written reasoning if they chose to contradict the EU AG than if they agreed his opinion? In other words, does the speed give any hint?
    The speed tells us merely that they think it's urgent. I wouldn't read anything too much into that.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Except the fact it is the only option now with a likely Commons majority and it avoids the economic disaster of No Deal or the huge division and uncertainty of EUref2.

    Even the DUP could vote for it if it applies to the whole UK, the SNP and LDs and most Labour MPs and Lucas and Hermon and probably around half of Tory MPs will vote for it if the Deal goes down
    If the DUP are so insistent on being treated identically to GB can we look forward them to campaigning for 1967 abortion act to be applied in Northern Ireland?
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.

    Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?

    The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.

    If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.

    So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.

    We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Would they need more deliberation and a longer written reasoning if they chose to contradict the EU AG than if they agreed his opinion? In other words, does the speed give any hint?
    Not sure but it would be surprising if it didn't confirm the AG opinion
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    I wonder what it would take for the remaining 6% to make up their mind?
  • Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.

    Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
  • And we think TM has problems
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    That’s seriously impressive.
  • Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.

    Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
    This feels like they're heading for the finale of Hamlet.
  • Meanwhile, in other undoubtedly-absolutely-nothing-to-do-with-Brexit-and-how-dare-you-suggest-that-they-draw-any-kind-of-inspiration-from-anti-immigration-populism-news:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903?ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    IanB2 said:

    Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?

    Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.

    The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.

    The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".


    Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
    Busy day yesterday so little time for PB - catching up on Alastair’s very good header and then a cracker from David H, too.

    Another referendum seems so far down any path analysis as to be impossible to suggest as likely. After the MV, I can see three options:

    Deal passes - unlikely, baring events
    Deal fails big - May resigns
    Deal fails small - May tries to tweak or has a plan B

    Reading the tunes, I’d say something like 5%, 75% and 20% likelihood respectively, at present.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.

    Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?

    The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.

    If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.

    So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.

    We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    he'll go lower

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2018/12/06/20002-20181206ARTFIG00051-routiers-agriculteurs-cheminots-la-contestation-se-propage.php

    rail unions say they wont ask for fares from anyone wearing a yellow vest this weekend

    truck drivers, unions, farmers, students are all calling for mass action this weekend

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.

    Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
    This feels like they're heading for the finale of Hamlet.
    Should probably chuck a potential King Charles into the mix.
  • Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?

    Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.

    The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.

    The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".


    Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
    Busy day yesterday so little time for PB - catching up on Alastair’s very good header and then a cracker from David H, too.

    Another referendum seems so far down any path analysis as to be impossible to suggest as likely. After the MV, I can see three options:

    Deal passes - unlikely, baring events
    Deal fails big - May resigns
    Deal fails small - May tries to tweak or has a plan B

    Reading the tunes, I’d say something like 5%, 75% and 20% likelihood respectively, at present.
    TM resigns just causes utter chaos and no matter the vote I expect her to continue until or unless she is vnoc
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    I wonder what it would take for the remaining 6% to make up their mind?
    Hollande was lower, at 13% in September 2014.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.

    Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?

    The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.

    If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.

    So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.

    We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
    Small issue of the Brexit Act (or whatever it was called)
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?

    Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.

    The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.

    The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".


    Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
    Busy day yesterday so little time for PB - catching up on Alastair’s very good header and then a cracker from David H, too.

    Another referendum seems so far down any path analysis as to be impossible to suggest as likely. After the MV, I can see three options:

    Deal passes - unlikely, baring events
    Deal fails big - May resigns
    Deal fails small - May tries to tweak or has a plan B

    Reading the tunes, I’d say something like 5%, 75% and 20% likelihood respectively, at present.
    Paddys have a market on next cabinet member to resign. May is 4/1 3rd fav after Mordaunt and Leadsom but on your analysis shes the one to be on. I agree but deadheat rules apply so.if loads go on same day it does mess things up.
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.

    Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?

    The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.

    If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.

    So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.

    We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
    I honestly do not know but in the circumstances I would hope so
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I wonder what it would take for the remaining 6% to make up their mind?
    Hollande was lower, at 13% in September 2014.
    by Christmas Macron will be aspiring to those dizzy heights
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.

    Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.

    The final scenes of the Brexit season finale would cut to the credits just as a judge at the ECJ begins to read the verdict, and MPs start to queuing up to vote.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741


    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal

    Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.

    However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    TM resigns just causes utter chaos and no matter the vote I expect her to continue until or unless she is vnoc

    Is she that catastrophically lacking self-awareness? She is part of the problem now. She has to know that after the way she has lied to and betrayed just about everyone involved in this tawdry, ignorant mess.
  • Len McCluskey of Unite has told labour Unite will not support a second referendum as it would have serious consequences in leave areas
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    eek said:



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..
    Thanks
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    eek said:



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..
    Thanks
    Paddys 5/1 we revoke by 30/03/2019.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    TM resigns just causes utter chaos and no matter the vote I expect her to continue until or unless she is vnoc

    Is she that catastrophically lacking self-awareness? She is part of the problem now. She has to know that after the way she has lied to and betrayed just about everyone involved in this tawdry, ignorant mess.
    In a normal circumstances you are correct but these are far from normal, though I do not accept your description of her.

    TM resigning will not help the next few weeks and it is not in her nature. She will of course need the support of her cabinet and majority of her party
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    eek said:



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..
    Or alternatively force the PM auto invoke Article 51 and join the EU one second after Brexit
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.
  • kle4 said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    There is nothing. If the first vote was close, maybe. But it wont be. The deal is dead and brexit dying. All this has been for nothing.
    I hope you are right. Many of us have said all along that nothing good will come of it. Whether Brexit dies or prevails, it has damaged our wealth and international prestige. Those public figures that endorsed this folly, and the useful idiots like Corbyn that allowed it to continue, need to be called to account.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.

    Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.

    The final scenes of the Brexit season finale would cut to the credits just as a judge at the ECJ begins to read the verdict, and MPs start to queuing up to vote.
    After the credit we cut to a dark and rainy night on the South Bank. Boris is leaning against a lamp post and trying to have a piss. He is too drunk and is just pissing all over his trousers and shoes.

    "My word," he slurs. "I think there's blood in it."

    FIN
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plot
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    You think Mays got problems , you want to try being a Saints fan.

    They are second from bottom in the premiership, yet are third in the Premiership on the number of shots. Amazingly they have had more shots than Liverpool and 30 more than Arsenal. Saints have had 96 more shots than Brighton yet are 12 points behind them.

    Last night they lost 3-1 to Spurs and guess who was the BBC's Man of the Match, Spurs Goalkeeper, Saints also hit the wordwork 3 times.
  • stodge said:


    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal

    Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.

    However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.

    The HoC does not have the capacity to instruct withdrawl; it is the legislature, not the executive. Only the executive can do that, so the only way the HoC could affect that would be to either pressure the executive, or replace the PM via a VONC
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited December 2018
    New from the BBC:

    Theresa May says she "is talking to colleagues" about their concerns over the Northern Ireland "backstop" ahead of a crucial vote on her EU deal.
    She suggested MPs could be "given a role" in deciding whether to activate the backstop, which is designed to stop the return of a physical border.But she told the BBC there could be no deal with the EU without a backstop.
    It comes amid speculation Tuesday's Commons vote could be delayed to avoid a defeat for the prime minister.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46463326

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.

    What will that thing be ?

    MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted down
    I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.

    Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?
    Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you go
    Which EU institutions would we be staying in, precisely?
    We may be outside the Parliament, Commission and Council but we would still be in the single market and customs union with free movement, no ability to do trade deals and required to adhere to European Court rulings. So in reality we would be in the orbit of the EU and little would change
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    alex. said:




    Labour's policy is to make the backstop (aka customs union) permanent. The cheek of them yesterday describing the Legal advice that the backstop potentially trapped the UK in an endless cycle of talks as "the central flaw in May's deal" was something to behold.

    Still waiting for somebody to reconcile these two positions.

    We discussed this yesterday and I still don't see your point. To have a policy saying "X is fine" is straightforward. To have a policy saying "We definitely don't want X but we can't be sure if we can avoid it" is an inherently flawed proposal.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr alex,

    "FoM is THE reason Preventing Labour MPs from coming out for remain on masse."

    Let's be honest, FOM is the reason that Leave won the referendum. The rest is dancing on pin heads.

    Brexit central (Boston) has had mass white immigration. Although the Baltic states are white, Christian, like a drink (hence the drink-drive convictions have shot up), they generally have Russian as their second language - hence integration is slow and schools crowded and under-funded.

    You could blame the government for not helping, but it's easier and cheaper to throw out accusations of racism than spend money. You reap what you sow..

    PS there are racists everywhere, and in all communities including the immigrant ones. And the Labour party. All part of life's rich tapestry.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited December 2018



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Just imagine what the Ken Burns Vietnam-style documentary of this will be like.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    IanB2 said:

    New from the BBC:

    Theresa May says she "is talking to colleagues" about their concerns over the Northern Ireland "backstop" ahead of a crucial vote on her EU deal.
    She suggested MPs could be "given a role" in deciding whether to activate the backstop, which is designed to stop the return of a physical border.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46463326

    Making it not a backstop and therefore not acceptable to the EU.

    Could the SNP be bought off with something?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    alex. said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.
    Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.
    If there’s one red line I think may would never break it is the Freedom of Movement one. It’s crackers, and it almost certainly wouldn’t have a majority support in the House of Commons. Political journalists saying that are talking to a very narrow band of MPs and making some enormous assumptions. FoM is THE reason Preventing Labour MPs from coming out for remain on masse.
    The SNP and LDs about half of Tory MPs and most Labour MPs would vote for the Letwin amendment, Remainers as the next best option if they cannot get EUref2 through. If Labour MPs in Leave seats want to end free movement they must vote for the Deal
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Cyclefree said:

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Just imagine what the Ken Burns Vietnam-style documentary of this will be like.
    I'm halfway through watching that. Am impressed muchly.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plot
    There is that also. Which Tory party would you be voting for.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741

    stodge said:


    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal

    Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.

    However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.

    The HoC does not have the capacity to instruct withdrawl; it is the legislature, not the executive. Only the executive can do that, so the only way the HoC could affect that would be to either pressure the executive, or replace the PM via a VONC
    Well, quite but there's plenty of evidence from the past few days the executive isn't running the show at the moment and the legislature has "taken back control" so to speak.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
    I can't see a May-led government doing that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Cyclefree said:

    Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Just imagine what the Ken Burns Vietnam-style documentary of this will be like.
    Bloody hell that is a good series I have seen seven so far and am really looking forward to the remaining episodes.
  • TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plot
    The only reason would be to stop a thick little anti-Semitic scarecrow who behaves like sixth form common room bore from holding the highest office of state in the land. That would be my reasoning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.

    However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.

    May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after

    I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.

    Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?

    The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.

    If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.

    So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.

    We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
    Leaving without a Deal means the worst recession since the 1930s potentially.

    As a last resort the Letwin amendment ad it concedes free movement would make withdrawal not that difficult as we stay in the single market and customs union and abide by all the rules
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plot
    There is that also. Which Tory party would you be voting for.
    Im voting for the one that wants to smash the state

    currently Im spoiled for choice :-)

    SWP are simply nancy boy amateurs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    As Hislop said yesterday a general election solves nothing. Even if Corbyn becomes PM it would then just switch to Labour divisions and infighting, toing and froing from Brussels and still a likely hung parliament
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plot
    The only reason would be to stop a thick little anti-Semitic scarecrow who behaves like sixth form common room bore from holding the highest office of state in the land. That would be my reasoning.
    A surprising use of the word reasoning.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
    Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.
  • stodge said:

    stodge said:


    No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal

    Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.

    However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.

    The HoC does not have the capacity to instruct withdrawl; it is the legislature, not the executive. Only the executive can do that, so the only way the HoC could affect that would be to either pressure the executive, or replace the PM via a VONC
    Well, quite but there's plenty of evidence from the past few days the executive isn't running the show at the moment and the legislature has "taken back control" so to speak.
    Yes it does seem that the grown-ups (aka the moderates) seem to be making something of a come-back. I am still hopeful (though not optimistic) that there could be a realignment, with a unity figure chosen as a PM. Very unlikely of course, as our system means that any MP that backed such a move would probably be deselected by the headbangers in their respective party
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is the problem with No Deal

    https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665

    Lots of people think it means Status Quo.
  • eek said:



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
    Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.
    A lot of people on here who seem to know a lot about it have been saying the MV cannot be used for it - in the same way it cannot be used to amend for a referendum - as it is not primary legislation and so cannot be used to amend primary legislation.
  • eek said:



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
    Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.
    No it needs primary legislation to revoke and supersede the Withdrawal bill.

    Now you might know better than a former clerk of the Commons, but I doubt it.
  • Boris in trouble with standards committee and he must apology to the HOC as soon as possible
  • Local by elections today.

    http://britainelects.com/2018/12/05/previews-06-dec-2018/

    The big one is Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh which is 1,190 square miles in size and includes the infamous ferry port of Ullapool.

    Our population is 2 people per square kilometre, twice as densely populated as the ward to the north of us. However our major claim to fame is that this is the biggest local government ward in the UK and probably Europe. To drive from one end, Reiff, to the other, Glenelg, is 126 miles. Ullapool is the biggest centre of population at 1900 souls and I'm off to cast my vote for our Green candidate Irene Brandt now. By the way Ullapool is a ferry port, but the ferry goes west to Stornoway not east to Inverness as HYFUD thinks.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
    As a result of the Grieve amendment to the standing orders, it’s possible that the Commons can instruct the Government to introduce a vote. Not clear until tested. Parliament can definitely amend relevant legislation to amend that law, so in the absence of the Grieve option working it would depend what legislation the Government introduces.
  • Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote

    Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.
    Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.

    Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
    This feels like they're heading for the finale of Hamlet.
    Except the rest will never, ever be silence.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Scott_P said:

    This is the problem with No Deal

    https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665

    Lots of people think it means Status Quo.

    I can already hear the cries of "you didn't know what you voted for" if the plebs vote for no deal in a referendum.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    eek said:



    Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?

    My understanding is that this is in two parts.

    It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.

    It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
    Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.
    No it needs primary legislation to revoke and supersede the Withdrawal bill.

    Now you might know better than a former clerk of the Commons, but I doubt it.
    I just guessed the opposite, but have no pretensions to know better than a former clerk - do you have a link for that and any more on the reasoning? I’m fairly sure there are precedents of finance bills being amended to change various tax acts which weren’t amended in the original drafting of the finance bill in question, though generally it would be clear that the ultimate outcome is in line with the overall intention of the bill.
  • By the way Ullapool is a ferry port, but the ferry goes west to Stornoway not east to Inverness as HYFUD thinks.

    A revelatory moment of Raab-like proportions for HYFUD.

  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.

    The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.

    But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.

    As Hislop said yesterday a general election solves nothing. Even if Corbyn becomes PM it would then just switch to Labour divisions and infighting, toing and froing from Brussels and still a likely hung parliament
    I think this is the Corbyn Paradox - the more that Brexit goes wrong, the more likely he is to become PM BUT the harder it would be to get through his agenda while firefighting Brexit.

    On the other hand if he helped May get the deal through then a PM Corbyn would have a clean slate to get his agenda through, BUT be less likely to win the election.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Scott_P said:

    This is the problem with No Deal

    https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665

    Lots of people think it means Status Quo.

    That's the problem when you dismiss the benefits of the status quo as "Project Fear". People think any change retains those benefits.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:

    This is the problem with No Deal

    https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665

    Lots of people think it means Status Quo.

    I can already hear the cries of "you didn't know what you voted for" if the plebs vote for no deal in a referendum.
    Probably best to make sure that it’s fully defined in any referendum question (‘the government has already enacted legislation mandating that in the event of no deal it will raise taxes by x, cut spending by £y and immediately begin the following preparations at a cost of £z’) to avoid that risk.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited December 2018

    Local by elections today.

    http://britainelects.com/2018/12/05/previews-06-dec-2018/

    The big one is Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh which is 1,190 square miles in size and includes the infamous ferry port of Ullapool.

    Our population is 2 people per square kilometre
    !

    Are you voting for the Milkman/Postman/Teacher/Janitor

    or the Mechanic/Electrician/Plumber/Taxi driver?

    ;)

    Even as someone who has lived in fairly small towns I can't imagine it. Greens are always a good choice hope they do well.

This discussion has been closed.