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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EU and Whose Army?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EU and Whose Army?

There is no subject that will more rapidly inflame the jowls of a Euroskeptic than that of the EU Army. It is often employed as the trump card that will instantly and irrevocably end all discussion of further European integration.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Superb piece.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    Zeroth.
  • E pluribus unum time?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526

    Superb piece.

    Damn you, TSE! And yes, thanks for the header Dura Ace!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Wait where did my FIRST go?

    I'm being oppressed by the establishment.
  • I have always thought that an EU army was the way to go. Trump has only highlighted the difference in approach between the US and the EU.

    FPT

    There is another judgment in a Brexit legal case due next week.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2018-0080.html

    This is the Scottish case as to whether The UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Legal Continuity) (Scotland) Bill is within the powers of the Scottish Parliament.

    Judgment is due on Thursday 13 December.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Priti Patel proposes threatening Ireland with starvation if they won't drop the backstop.

    In case you're wondering what stage of Brexit we're at, it's Potato Famine II: Priti Boogaloo

    https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153

    Wait where did my FIRST go?

    I'm being oppressed by the establishment.

    You conspiracy theorists are all the same.

    Now if we can just set Vanilla the task of stealing Brexit...
  • Excellent piece.

    [Is this really the same @Dura_Ace who posts expletive-ridden comments below the line?]
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    For the avoidance of any doubt, Irish friends, I'm categorically not in favour of weaponising famine against the Republic of Ireland into capitulating to our whims.

    Unless you insist on doing another fiddly-diddly Eurovision entry.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Priti Patel proposes threatening Ireland with starvation if they won't drop the backstop.

    In case you're wondering what stage of Brexit we're at, it's Potato Famine II: Priti Boogaloo

    https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/

    It's already been pointed out that she didn't actually say that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153

    Superb piece.


    It is a fine piece - but as an attempt to inject a modicum of reason into the debate, will likely be an utter failure.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    In case you're wondering how May's tour of the UK to sell the deal is going, Ipsos Mori have some numbers.

    image

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/six-ten-think-withdrawal-deal-would-be-bad-uk-public-cant-agree-what-should-happen-next
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,730
    Nice piece of writing - thanks, probably the best byline PB has seen for a while, but disappointingly tame language as @richard_nabavi points out.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    edited December 2018
    The basis of this antipathy has never been fully established but seems to be founded, in the first instance on misguided fealty to NATO and, in the second, to the exceptionalist view that no other European nation than the British can field an effective fighting force.

    I disagree with this part. It's because the interests of Britain may be completely at odds with the other countries in Europe in future, so we need to keep an independent armed forces.

    Yes Europe is peaceful now, but things can change very rapidly in ways we can't predict right now.
  • Excellent piece.

    [Is this really the same @Dura_Ace who posts expletive-ridden comments below the line?]

    Well he wouldn’t be a military man if he didn’t swear so much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153
  • Xenon said:

    Priti Patel proposes threatening Ireland with starvation if they won't drop the backstop.

    In case you're wondering what stage of Brexit we're at, it's Potato Famine II: Priti Boogaloo

    https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/

    It's already been pointed out that she didn't actually say that.
    Comments taken out of context about the EU?

    Leavers are getting hoisted by their own retard.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,730
    edited December 2018
    Xenon said:

    The basis of this antipathy has never been fully established but seems to be founded, in the first instance on misguided fealty to NATO and, in the second, to the exceptionalist view that no other European nation than the British can field an effective fighting force.

    I disagree with this part. It's because the interests of Britain may be completely at odds with the other countries in Europe in future, so we need to keep an independent armed forces.

    Yes Europe is peaceful now, but things can change very rapidly in ways we can't predict right now.

    Do you mean independent forces in this sense?

    There is not going to be an ‘EU Army’ in the sense of a unitary force structure and forces with no chain of command back to national governments any time soon or perhaps ever.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,775
    Xenon said:

    I disagree with this part. It's because the interests of Britain may be completely at odds with the other countries in Europe in future, so we need to keep an independent armed forces.

    Yes Europe is peaceful now, but things can change very rapidly in ways we can't predict right now.

    For example a member of the EU might have a nationalist spasm and decide to leave, triggering a descent into ever more wild and destabilising behaviour?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It's gonna happen.

    We're gonna get a referendum between a bad deal and no brexit.

    And we'll have the Brexit Buccaneers to thank for this awesome achievement.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Nigelb said:
    There's a reason everyone just calls her AKK.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900
    Thanks Dura Ace for an interesting an informative piece. I have to say, military cooperation with our neighbours is not something that worries me too much. It's the idea of compulsion to join in that gets people worried.
  • Non Annegret rien, non, rien de rien...
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    edited December 2018
    Polruan said:



    Do you mean independent forces in this sense?

    There is not going to be an ‘EU Army’ in the sense of a unitary force structure and forces with no chain of command back to national governments any time soon or perhaps ever.
    Well firstly there's no guarantee that there isn't going to be an EU army.

    But apart from that if our armed forces are designed and maintained to primarily operate in cooperation with other EU countries than by itself then that is by definition less independent.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,730
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting. Not sure I buy all of Andrew Sparrow’s reasons against. The argument that May would be deposed by her own party is persuasive, but less certain following last month’s “we’re right behind you, Jacob” moment. I don’t think that Labour can be seen to own it, because that would end up as a rerun of IndyRef where Labour ‘save’ the country but pay a huge price at the next GE. But it’s not a bad answer for Labour if they whip against it but see 100 rebels vote with the government.

    It would need to include a request for A50 extension acknowledging the EU would only grant it once binding legislation for the referendum had been passed though. How desperate are Gove and all to deliver something they can pretend is Brexit?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,827
    edited December 2018

    Xenon said:

    Priti Patel proposes threatening Ireland with starvation if they won't drop the backstop.

    In case you're wondering what stage of Brexit we're at, it's Potato Famine II: Priti Boogaloo

    https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/

    It's already been pointed out that she didn't actually say that.
    Comments taken out of context about the EU?

    Leavers are getting hoisted by their own retard.
    If you didn't pinch that, well played.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,622
    edited December 2018
    It's true it's not a new development, although of course that's one reason denials of it were so undermining and demonstrative of a wider problem In selling the EU - the dream is not a bad one but often to many people the need or desirability of integration is not made and it's pretended that is not the goal.

    Very comprehensive piece.
  • tlg86 said:

    Thanks Dura Ace for an interesting an informative piece. I have to say, military cooperation with our neighbours is not something that worries me too much. It's the idea of compulsion to join in that gets people worried.

    So you’ll be happy if it doesn’t have a NATO style Article V ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018
    'To its critics the development of the EUMS and the associated structures is a sign of the EU wishing to mantle itself with the trappings of the nation state. This may even be true to a minor extent but it is a happy byproduct rather than the main motivating factor.

    Oh, that's alright then. While 'the EU' is not a monolith, there's undoubtedly a strong faction that is desperate for it to be a nation state. Hence the calls for QMV on foreign policy, France to give up it's UN security council seat, the EU border force (though this has been rejected for now) and so forth.

    I don't mind particularly; though I appreciate we've moved on from 1st Guards Shock Army barrelling through the Fulda Gap, the Continentals need to have something more than 'Ode to Joy' to deter Putin's merry band of psychopaths.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Xenon said:

    I disagree with this part. It's because the interests of Britain may be completely at odds with the other countries in Europe in future, so we need to keep an independent armed forces.

    Yes Europe is peaceful now, but things can change very rapidly in ways we can't predict right now.

    For example a member of the EU might have a nationalist spasm and decide to leave, triggering a descent into ever more wild and destabilising behaviour?
    Yes good point. It's possible the EU may descend into even more of this behaviour when one of its vassals tries to break free.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,994
    tlg86 said:

    Thanks Dura Ace for an interesting an informative piece. I have to say, military cooperation with our neighbours is not something that worries me too much. It's the idea of compulsion to join in that gets people worried.

    I thought compulsion, the idea of bringing back Natioanl Service was something the Right was keen on.
  • Xenon said:

    Priti Patel proposes threatening Ireland with starvation if they won't drop the backstop.

    In case you're wondering what stage of Brexit we're at, it's Potato Famine II: Priti Boogaloo

    https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/

    It's already been pointed out that she didn't actually say that.
    Comments taken out of context about the EU?

    Leavers are getting hoisted by their own retard.
    If you didn't pinch that, well played.
    Is a line from Veep.
  • Nigelb said:
    There's a reason everyone just calls her AKK.
    Just as well her first name isn't Karen.
  • Great article. This is a function of the US's great withdrawing. In years to come we will probably look at the election of Donald Trump as a critical staging point on the ending of the US's world hegemony. As it has become increasingly apparent that the US is going to leave Europe to look to its own defences, Europe is duly doing so.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,153
    Anticipation of Mueller's sentencing documents for Manafort and Cohen seems to have sent Trump over the edge this morning.

    Though in the blizzard of storming tweetiness, it should be noted that he does have a point about the way the FBI obtained FISA warrants. (Something which is hardly confined to this case.)
  • It's gonna happen.

    We're gonna get a referendum between a bad deal and no brexit.

    And we'll have the Brexit Buccaneers to thank for this awesome achievement.

    The media interviews seem to be almost exclusively between ultra brexiteers and ultra remainers both united to take down the deal so they will come out on top

    It is very sad for those of us in the middle and it does look like this can only end up with a referendum on TM deal - remain and I would expect remain to win a nasty divisive campaign
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,749
    edited December 2018

    Great article. This is a function of the US's great withdrawing. In years to come we will probably look at the election of Donald Trump as a critical staging point on the ending of the US's world hegemony. As it has become increasingly apparent that the US is going to leave Europe to look to its own defences, Europe is duly doing so.

    The great withdrawing predates Trump, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    Hopefully Channel 4 will get Rory the Tory on to defend the deal :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,074
    This is an excellent piece, yes. Such a shame to dumb it down but here I go. The presence of the ghastly creature in the White House has drained almost all of the pro American sentiment (which I used to have a great deal of) out of me. I wish ill on the USA now. I think of them as a strange and hostile nation. The knock on effect is that I feel more 'European' than I used to do and rather less perturbed by the thought of a consolidated military capability. A European Army if you will. Just so long as we Brits are in charge of it.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,546
    edited December 2018
    Good article and very interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting. Not sure I buy all of Andrew Sparrow’s reasons against. The argument that May would be deposed by her own party is persuasive, but less certain following last month’s “we’re right behind you, Jacob” moment. I don’t think that Labour can be seen to own it, because that would end up as a rerun of IndyRef where Labour ‘save’ the country but pay a huge price at the next GE. But it’s not a bad answer for Labour if they whip against it but see 100 rebels vote with the government.

    It would need to include a request for A50 extension acknowledging the EU would only grant it once binding legislation for the referendum had been passed though. How desperate are Gove and all to deliver something they can pretend is Brexit?
    May wouldn't just destroy her Premiership; she'd sink the Tory Party with her.
  • At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Nigelb said:

    Anticipation of Mueller's sentencing documents for Manafort and Cohen seems to have sent Trump over the edge this morning.

    Though in the blizzard of storming tweetiness, it should be noted that he does have a point about the way the FBI obtained FISA warrants. (Something which is hardly confined to this case.)

    They've been determined to get him since he got nominated for Republican candidate. If this doesn't bring him down they'll find something else instead.

    If only they were anywhere near this thorough with the Clintons.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,667
    edited December 2018
    Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is Merkel's replacement. She is being urged to change her name by deed poll to Anna Schmidt.

    Interesting article, D-A
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    Trump's an odd one on the military, he ran on broadly a non interventionist platform, yet planned to boost military spending; and went for more air strikes in Syria than Obama did (I think !). Like Obama he was far less interventionist than the Bushes in the Levant.
    A real hodge podge of a strategy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,760

    It's gonna happen.

    We're gonna get a referendum between a bad deal and no brexit.

    And we'll have the Brexit Buccaneers to thank for this awesome achievement.

    IF that happens blame May and her fuckwit approach to Brexit.

  • Great article. This is a function of the US's great withdrawing. In years to come we will probably look at the election of Donald Trump as a critical staging point on the ending of the US's world hegemony. As it has become increasingly apparent that the US is going to leave Europe to look to its own defences, Europe is duly doing so.

    The great withdrawing predates Trump, though.
    Absolutely. He has certainly drawn attention to and intensified the process though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 18,602

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Hopefully Channel 4 will get Rory the Tory on to defend the deal :)

    Rory the Tory from Balamory on Jackanory?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,456
    FF43 said:

    Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is Merkel's replacement. She is being urged to change her name by deed poll to Anna Schmidt.

    Yes, quite a narrow win (517-482), but reflects Merkel continuity rather than the trightward swing proposed by her competitor. The debate has revived interest in the CDU and the latest polls show something of a bounce for them from the historically low levels, though still only at 30%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426
    IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    If the Government adopt the Mann/Snell amendment (It looks allowable on the surface) there might be more.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,157
    edited December 2018
    Hold on!!! Take away the bogeyman of an EU army in blue and gold uniforms, with new recruits swearing fealty to Jean-Claude Juncker and receiving EUR10 on acceptance, and where does that leave the mad frothing armchair eurosceptic generals?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Xenon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anticipation of Mueller's sentencing documents for Manafort and Cohen seems to have sent Trump over the edge this morning.

    Though in the blizzard of storming tweetiness, it should be noted that he does have a point about the way the FBI obtained FISA warrants. (Something which is hardly confined to this case.)

    They've been determined to get him since he got nominated for Republican candidate. If this doesn't bring him down they'll find something else instead.

    If only they were anywhere near this thorough with the Clintons.
    When Mueller goes after Junior, Trump's tweetstorming will become sectionable, I reckon.
  • Nigelb said:

    Superb piece.


    It is a fine piece - but as an attempt to inject a modicum of reason into the debate, will likely be an utter failure.
    ... but one has to try.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,232
    David_Evershed said:

    ' Any evidence that 'not very bright' students get into Oxbridge?'

    I suspect that until circa 1950 that was true of many of the entrants who obtained 'places' rather than Scholarships or Exhibitions.Very few Grammar School applicants were able to afford the fees associated with a mere 'place' , and as a result Oxbridge was widely seen as a Finishing School for the public schools. Many of those from feepaying schools who obtained a place in that period would be unlikely to have gained entry from circa 1960 onwards.
  • At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    We will see.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,667

    Great article. This is a function of the US's great withdrawing. In years to come we will probably look at the election of Donald Trump as a critical staging point on the ending of the US's world hegemony. As it has become increasingly apparent that the US is going to leave Europe to look to its own defences, Europe is duly doing so.

    It looks like it, but the US is making a mistake IMO. For a relatively modest diplomatic and military investment, the US gets a useful boost of like minded countries onto its side, in Asia Pacific as well as Europe.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,749
    edited December 2018

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    It's now out of control of the government and the Conservative Party.

    Parliament insisted on a say. So far the only thing they can agree on is trashing the deal. After Tuesday's vote it will be up to them to say what they do want, not what they don't want.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    If the Government adopt the Mann/Snell amendment (It looks allowable on the surface) there might be more.
    Been away doing family stuff and Christmas markets for a few days, so trying to get back up to speed. In a nutshell, what does the Mann/Snell amendment do please?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,863

    In case you're wondering how May's tour of the UK to sell the deal is going, Ipsos Mori have some numbers.

    image

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/six-ten-think-withdrawal-deal-would-be-bad-uk-public-cant-agree-what-should-happen-next

    ***Emerges blinking into sunlight after 18 months***

    It's not just the public that's hopelessly split. So is Parliament, of course.

    It looks very much like we're going to end up with a Hard Brexit by default, because after May's deal gets voted down there will be nothing to replace it. The Government can't change course under May, if May goes she will be replaced by a Brexiteer, and the pro-EU Tories can't repeal the EU Withdrawal Act without splitting their own party in two *and* persuading the pro-EU Labourites to do likewise. No centre-right politician will vote to put Jeremy Corbyn into No.10 regardless of the circumstances, and anyway Jeremy Corbyn is a (very thinly disguised) Brexiteer himself.

    Without a friendly Prime Minister to allow their legislation to pass, pro-EU MPs are entirely impotent. All they can do is vote for non-binding motions and continue to make manifest their misery in fruitless debates.

    To borrow from Dan Hodges, Parliament hasn't taken back control of the Brexit flight with its criticism of the May deal, or its impending revolt against it - it's just tied up the pilot, that's all. Nobody is at the controls now.

    Absent a complete realignment of the party political system (which is theoretically possible but seems highly unlikely,) the autopilot is therefore in charge and will fly us the rest of the way to Brexitland by March. Or am I missing an obvious alternative here?

    Oh, and good afternoon.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,232
    TSE said:
    ' Not very bright students get into Oxford.

    For example David Miliband got in with a D and 3 Bs.

    Cambridge let in Prince Charles with a B & C.'

    Miliband's B grades from the early 1980s would equate to a good A grade today.
    Charles took his A levels in mid-1960s - his results would easily be worth 2 A grades nowadays.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,426

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    If the Government adopt the Mann/Snell amendment (It looks allowable on the surface) there might be more.
    Been away doing family stuff and Christmas markets for a few days, so trying to get back up to speed. In a nutshell, what does the Mann/Snell amendment do please?
    "Seeks to ensure that leaving the EU will not result in lower employment, environmental, and health and safety standards after exit day."
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    "I think you would mess it all up for us, the way you have messed it all up for yourselves."

    WHY WOULD YOU THINK THAT?!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,456
    Interesting article, thanks Dura Ace.

    As others have said, attitudes to the US alliance have been affected by Trump. It's obvious that a Corbyn government will not get on well with Trump on a variety of issues, but that's not quite the oh-my-god possibility that it would have been during the Cold War. The idea of saying as Boris did that if the US intervened in Syria we'd find it hard to refuse to join in is something that few politicians of any party would offer now.

    That said, I'm not sure there's much appetite for UK involvement in European military matters either. A period of quietly ticking over is probably the best the armed forces can expect under either party, and even that would probably improve on the present situation.
  • kinabalu said:

    This is an excellent piece, yes. Such a shame to dumb it down but here I go. The presence of the ghastly creature in the White House has drained almost all of the pro American sentiment (which I used to have a great deal of) out of me. I wish ill on the USA now. I think of them as a strange and hostile nation. The knock on effect is that I feel more 'European' than I used to do and rather less perturbed by the thought of a consolidated military capability. A European Army if you will. Just so long as we Brits are in charge of it.

    The EU nations will never let the UK lead a European institution ever again. We are cast out even if we remain. There cannot be a return to the pre-2016 position in the minds of all involved. This is not a Bobby Ewing dream sequence opportunity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    The only Referendum that stands a chance of getting May's deal through is May's Deal v No Deal. But how the hell does she get that through the House?
  • Deal passing odds on Ladbrokes have lengthened from 5 to 6.5.

    Interestingly the odds on a second referendum remain unchanged.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    If the Government adopt the Mann/Snell amendment (It looks allowable on the surface) there might be more.
    Been away doing family stuff and Christmas markets for a few days, so trying to get back up to speed. In a nutshell, what does the Mann/Snell amendment do please?
    "Seeks to ensure that leaving the EU will not result in lower employment, environmental, and health and safety standards after exit day."
    Thanks.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    The only Referendum that stands a chance of getting May's deal through is May's Deal v No Deal. But how the hell does she get that through the House?
    She can't, and even if she could the electoral commission could never sign off on it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,994
    justin124 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    ' Any evidence that 'not very bright' students get into Oxbridge?'

    I suspect that until circa 1950 that was true of many of the entrants who obtained 'places' rather than Scholarships or Exhibitions.Very few Grammar School applicants were able to afford the fees associated with a mere 'place' , and as a result Oxbridge was widely seen as a Finishing School for the public schools. Many of those from feepaying schools who obtained a place in that period would be unlikely to have gained entry from circa 1960 onwards.

    Prior to 1950 (say) how many University places were there, relative to numbers of young people?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kinabalu said:

    This is an excellent piece, yes. Such a shame to dumb it down but here I go. The presence of the ghastly creature in the White House has drained almost all of the pro American sentiment (which I used to have a great deal of) out of me. I wish ill on the USA now. I think of them as a strange and hostile nation. The knock on effect is that I feel more 'European' than I used to do and rather less perturbed by the thought of a consolidated military capability. A European Army if you will. Just so long as we Brits are in charge of it.

    The EU nations will never let the UK lead a European institution ever again. We are cast out even if we remain. There cannot be a return to the pre-2016 position in the minds of all involved. This is not a Bobby Ewing dream sequence opportunity.
    I think if we remain, the EU will be so relieved they'll go out of their way to make us feel "involved".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,526
    edited December 2018

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    The only Referendum that stands a chance of getting May's deal through is May's Deal v No Deal. But how the hell does she get that through the House?
    She can't, and even if she could the electoral commission could never sign off on it.
    If parliament decided there would be a deal vs no deal referendum, the electoral commission would overrule them?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,749
    edited December 2018

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    The only Referendum that stands a chance of getting May's deal through is May's Deal v No Deal. But how the hell does she get that through the House?
    She doesn't. Which is why the logic leads inexorably to a referendum between the EU's deal (to give it its proper name) and revoking Article 50, assuming that is possible.

    As for mechanism, the excellent @Black_Rook (welcome back, BTW!) is right that it is awkward. But if, as I think is likely, MPs vote by a large margin for asking for an Article 50 extension and a referendum, it is hard to see the (replacement) government refusing to hold it.

    Edit: Of course this is a trap which the ERG dug for themselves and then jumped into. No-one else had thought of it. It's rather pleasing.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    If the Government adopt the Mann/Snell amendment (It looks allowable on the surface) there might be more.
    Been away doing family stuff and Christmas markets for a few days, so trying to get back up to speed. In a nutshell, what does the Mann/Snell amendment do please?
    "Seeks to ensure that leaving the EU will not result in lower employment, environmental, and health and safety standards after exit day."
    Thanks.
    So the government would have zero room to negotiate to deviate from SM regulations, anywhere, ever.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Those numbers are only heading one way. Reunification looks like just a matter of time now, given the much higher catholic birth rate.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    It's now out of control of the government and the Conservative Party.
    I wonder what the majority of MPs who want to remain will vote to happen.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,730

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting. Not sure I buy all of Andrew Sparrow’s reasons against. The argument that May would be deposed by her own party is persuasive, but less certain following last month’s “we’re right behind you, Jacob” moment. I don’t think that Labour can be seen to own it, because that would end up as a rerun of IndyRef where Labour ‘save’ the country but pay a huge price at the next GE. But it’s not a bad answer for Labour if they whip against it but see 100 rebels vote with the government.

    It would need to include a request for A50 extension acknowledging the EU would only grant it once binding legislation for the referendum had been passed though. How desperate are Gove and all to deliver something they can pretend is Brexit?
    May wouldn't just destroy her Premiership; she'd sink the Tory Party with her.
    This is the place where we normally trot out “What’s not to like?” isn’t it?
  • In case you're wondering how May's tour of the UK to sell the deal is going, Ipsos Mori have some numbers.

    image

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/six-ten-think-withdrawal-deal-would-be-bad-uk-public-cant-agree-what-should-happen-next

    ***Emerges blinking into sunlight after 18 months***

    It's not just the public that's hopelessly split. So is Parliament, of course.

    It looks very much like we're going to end up with a Hard Brexit by default, because after May's deal gets voted down there will be nothing to replace it. The Government can't change course under May, if May goes she will be replaced by a Brexiteer, and the pro-EU Tories can't repeal the EU Withdrawal Act without splitting their own party in two *and* persuading the pro-EU Labourites to do likewise. No centre-right politician will vote to put Jeremy Corbyn into No.10 regardless of the circumstances, and anyway Jeremy Corbyn is a (very thinly disguised) Brexiteer himself.

    Without a friendly Prime Minister to allow their legislation to pass, pro-EU MPs are entirely impotent. All they can do is vote for non-binding motions and continue to make manifest their misery in fruitless debates.

    To borrow from Dan Hodges, Parliament hasn't taken back control of the Brexit flight with its criticism of the May deal, or its impending revolt against it - it's just tied up the pilot, that's all. Nobody is at the controls now.

    Absent a complete realignment of the party political system (which is theoretically possible but seems highly unlikely,) the autopilot is therefore in charge and will fly us the rest of the way to Brexitland by March. Or am I missing an obvious alternative here?

    Oh, and good afternoon.
    Where I think your argument breaks is the Tory party holding together. They have a long history of loyalty to party above leader, but I suspect that enough remain stalwarts would not stomach a true faith Brexiteer leader that they would resign the whip.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 28,775
    Anazina said:

    Those numbers are only heading one way. Reunification looks like just a matter of time now, given the much higher catholic birth rate.
    If there's no deal, 55% support a united Ireland including 11% of people who identify as unionists.

    The DUP's best outcome by far is Remain.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,667

    Interesting article, thanks Dura Ace.

    As others have said, attitudes to the US alliance have been affected by Trump. It's obvious that a Corbyn government will not get on well with Trump on a variety of issues, but that's not quite the oh-my-god possibility that it would have been during the Cold War. The idea of saying as Boris did that if the US intervened in Syria we'd find it hard to refuse to join in is something that few politicians of any party would offer now.

    That said, I'm not sure there's much appetite for UK involvement in European military matters either. A period of quietly ticking over is probably the best the armed forces can expect under either party, and even that would probably improve on the present situation.

    Funnily enough I see a greater involvement in the EU Army if we Brexit than if we remain. It's one of the few things that we can lay on the table that is interesting to the EU and therefore has currency for the negotiations.
  • Xenon said:

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    It's now out of control of the government and the Conservative Party.
    I wonder what the majority of MPs who want to remain will vote to happen.
    For a second referendum. The ERG have given them democratic cover to no longer respect the first referendum result.
  • IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,177

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Has a single Labour MP in the Commons debate said they will support May's deal?

    According to the Guardian's graphic, there is one.
    If the Government adopt the Mann/Snell amendment (It looks allowable on the surface) there might be more.
    Been away doing family stuff and Christmas markets for a few days, so trying to get back up to speed. In a nutshell, what does the Mann/Snell amendment do please?
    "Seeks to ensure that leaving the EU will not result in lower employment, environmental, and health and safety standards after exit day."
    Thanks.
    So the government would have zero room to negotiate to deviate from SM regulations, anywhere, ever.
    Can't see Prime Minister Corbyn liking that.....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,232

    justin124 said:

    David_Evershed said:

    ' Any evidence that 'not very bright' students get into Oxbridge?'

    I suspect that until circa 1950 that was true of many of the entrants who obtained 'places' rather than Scholarships or Exhibitions.Very few Grammar School applicants were able to afford the fees associated with a mere 'place' , and as a result Oxbridge was widely seen as a Finishing School for the public schools. Many of those from feepaying schools who obtained a place in that period would be unlikely to have gained entry from circa 1960 onwards.

    Prior to 1950 (say) how many University places were there, relative to numbers of young people?
    I would find that information very interesting. Certainly relatively few pupils were in the market for a university place at all at that time - those that were came disproportionately from the public schools. The majority of Grammar School pupils left school at 16 having taken the School Certificate - equivalent to O levels. Only a minority considered staying on to sit the Higher Certificate - A level equivalent - at 18.
  • Xenon said:

    At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.

    If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.

    Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.

    And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
    If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
    It's now out of control of the government and the Conservative Party.
    I wonder what the majority of MPs who want to remain will vote to happen.
    For a second referendum. The ERG have given them democratic cover to no longer respect the first referendum result.
    Morons.
  • Anazina said:

    Those numbers are only heading one way. Reunification looks like just a matter of time now, given the much higher catholic birth rate.
    If there's no deal, 55% support a united Ireland including 11% of people who identify as unionists.

    The DUP's best outcome by far is Remain.
    To be precise, a Remain that they furiously oppose.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Those numbers are only heading one way. Reunification looks like just a matter of time now, given the much higher catholic birth rate.
    If there's no deal, 55% support a united Ireland including 11% of people who identify as unionists.

    The DUP's best outcome by far is Remain.
    Indeed. It wasn't clear to me why they backed Leave in the first place.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,900

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks Dura Ace for an interesting an informative piece. I have to say, military cooperation with our neighbours is not something that worries me too much. It's the idea of compulsion to join in that gets people worried.

    So you’ll be happy if it doesn’t have a NATO style Article V ?
    At the risk of being labelled a Putin supporter - absolutely.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,667
    edited December 2018
    Anazina said:

    Those numbers are only heading one way. Reunification looks like just a matter of time now, given the much higher catholic birth rate.
    Indeed. The switch of nationalists and non aligned to reunification is remarkable. Before the Brexit vote there was little support for unification, even amongst nationalists.
This discussion has been closed.