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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is France the next to fall to populism?

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    C'mon peeps. Do keep up





    new thread -->
    I advise you to follow, Bev's had something of a streak over here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Intelligent discussion of the options from the EU perspective if the deal goes down:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/08/eu-will-negotiate-after-may-loses-commons-brexit-vote-says-prodi

    I interpret that as meaning that they'll negotiate to keep trade flowing rather than pure no-deal, and also consider some tweaks if they think it will produce a positive result. They won't want to bother with the latter if they think the revised deal would be voted down anyway.

    According to Rudd this morning much of the Cabinet will switch to Norway+ ie single market and customs union if the Deal does not get through the Commons to avoid No Deal. Assuming May does not call EUref2 too of course which I would not completely rule out
    Did we ever get to the bottom of whether the UK could unilaterally terminate Norway+ in the future?
    Almost certainly not but if the ERG vote down the Deal at the moment Norway+ not No Deal looks the favourite alternative for MPs and the Cabinet
    Good luck to future Tory GE candidates trying to explain on the doorstep how they ended up locked forever into Norway+. With full CU and SM - a 180 degree turn from the last Manifesto commitment. And no Article 50 option to leave it.....

    At least Norway + cheerleader Amber Rudd will be out of Parliament.
    It is still better thsn going into the next general election with No Deal and in any case I would expect just as many Labour MPs to back Norway+ as Tory MPs and all LD and SNP MPs. The ERG would oppose it still but even the Deal could back it as it applies CU and SM to the whole UK
    And it will kill the Tory Party. Rightly, as they will have blatantly lied to the voters on the biggest issue for decades.
    It's no deal exit that would kill the Tory party. The small, irresponsible part of me wants to see the ERG get what they wish for.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited December 2018
    Torygraph has a BMG poll of 10,000 up on front page. Headline is 63% want their MP to vote against the deal.

    Edit: 53% vote against 10% abstain.
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